Football – Page 48 – MorganWick.com

The twilight of the National Football League

January 1, 2016October 19, 2009 by Morgan Wick

Watching Friday’s “Pardon the Interruption” last night, as Tony and Mike interviewed bestselling author Malcolm Gladwell (whose books I haven’t read but am very interested in nonetheless) about his New Yorker piece on the brains of NFL players, I was struck by a sudden realization.

The NFL – the undisputed king of the American sports landscape – could be in the waning days of its popularity if not existence.

For decades now, especially as boxing faded away with the decline of Ali and Tyson, the NFL has been the dominant sport on the landscape by appealing to our bloodlust. People tune in to the NFL each week, in part, because they want to see violence, brutality, and pain. Even if that may not be strictly true, it is true that for non-fans (especially for baseball fans), football is identified with that sort of violence and brutality, which fans are willing to take a blind eye to.

American culture, as well as other developments, may be turning against that tolerance to the NFL’s brutality. There’s been a confluence of events that’s started to show that people are starting to care more about the NFL’s brutality than in the past. Most of them are in the background for now, like the ongoing pension fight between retired players and the Player’s Association and pieces like Gladwell’s that actually quantify the effects (even in college and high school) and have led to an increased emphasis on concussions, but we’ve also seen the NFL itself make rule changes that have been seen by some as appealing to pollyannas, especially when it comes to protecting the quarterback. The NFL is becoming a more conscientious place about the well-being of its players, with “safety” becoming the watchword of the day, but nothing it can do might protect them as well as keeping them out in the first place.

I can’t link to a video of the PTI interview because ESPN hides almost all video from PTI and “Around the Horn” behind its “Insider” subscription wall, but I can tell you that the interview did touch on this very possibility. Gladwell suggested that to completely make the NFL safe might require massive rule changes that would turn the game into something else, and the prospect was raised of Congress potentially deciding the NFL needed to be banned and driven underground. Perhaps the most likely doomsday scenario, though, may involve parents deciding they cannot, in good conscience, allow their kids to play such a violent sport – or even kids making that decision themselves.

There’s another cultural development that doesn’t bode well for the NFL: our bloodlust is starting to move on back to combat sports, specifically MMA. If young people decide they would rather get their bloodlust filled by MMA, leaving the remaining new potential NFL fans no longer considering violence as a criterion in its favor (and maybe as a criterion against), there might be less direct connection to the league and the NFL may start suffering in comparison to less violent sports. Maybe this means baseball and basketball, maybe it means something new like soccer.

And this might affect the popularity of football on all levels, not just the NFL. Which would be one way to end college football’s playoff debate…

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 5

October 15, 2009 by Morgan Wick

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

Begins Sunday of Week 11
In effect during Weeks 11-17
Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
NFL schedules all games.
Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Colts have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since three other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. NBC appearances for all teams: TEN 2, PIT 3 (1 flexible), CHI 3 (1 flexible), GB 1, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 3 (1 flexible), IND 3, ARI 2, SD 1, ATL 1, PHI 4 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 1 (flexible), MIA 1 (flexible), MIN 1 (flexible), CAR 1 (flexible), WAS 1 (flexible). All primetime appearances for all teams: TEN 4, PIT 5 (1 flexible), CHI 5 (1 flexible), GB 3, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 5 (1 flexible), IND 5, ARI 3, SD 4, ATL 2, PHI 3 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 3 (1 flexible), MIA 4 (1 flexible), MIN 3 (1 flexible), CAR 3 (1 flexible), WAS 3 (1 flexible), BUF 2, OAK 1, NYJ 2, DEN 3, NO 3, SF 2, CLE 2, HOU 1, JAX 1.
A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
Prospects: 3-1 v. 3-1, with a pretty good chance of keeping its spot.
Protected games according to this: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Redskins-Cowboys (FOX). Apparently the NFL’s most storied rivalry outweighs a game between two better teams in Giants-Falcons.
Other possible games: Colts-Ravens and Giants-Falcons are the main contenders with Chargers-Broncos and 49ers-Packers as dark horses.

Week 12 (November 29):

Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Prospects: 3-2 v. 3-2, the Steelers are defending champs, and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games – Bears-Vikings is the only other Saturday game pitting two teams with winning records, which, combined with the fact that Steelers-Ravens would revert to them, makes it an easy decision for CBS to leave this week unprotected despite how crap next week is for them. Jaguars-49ers, Colts-Texans, and Redskins-Eagles are the only games that so much as involve a 2-3 team playing a team with less than 3 losses.

Week 13 (December 6):

Tentative game: New England @ Miami
Prospects: A little mediocre at 3-2 v. 2-3, but anything can happen.
Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS). Last week I noted that for CBS to protect any game other than a battle of then-2-2 teams in Jags-Texans was to take a leap of faith that some team below .500 is going to improve. Apparently CBS REALLY thinks the Titans’ 0-5 start is a fluke. But I also said that the only reason CBS might protect ANY game is because of the weakness of the tentative game, then 3-1 v. 1-3.
Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons is the only Saturday game this week pitting two teams with one or no losses. Vikings-Cardinals is a dark horse.

Week 14 (December 13):

Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and it’s 5-0 v. 3-1, currently the top two spots in said division. Pretty good shot to keep its spot, which means Fox could have left this week unprotected. There’s a better candidate later, though.
Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
Other possible games: Those were the games I expected to be the frontrunners to potentially steal the spot, not to be protected, last week; Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons were and are better games. CBS is especially surprising because not only are Bengals-Vikings and Broncos-Colts better games, they have no shortage of starpower in Brett Favre and Peyton Manning respectively. This may have less to do with records than the fact that the only other AFC game in Cowboy Stadium, while on CBS, involves the crappy Raiders.

Week 15 (December 20):

Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
Prospects: Incredibly lopsided, with the Vikings unbeaten and the Panthers 1-3, and CBS’ decision not to protect Bengals-Vikings last week really hurts its chances, since this is no longer NBC’s best shot to see Brett Favre. (Though since that comes in a week with a very attractive tentative game, it’s still relevant that NBC’s other two shots are the Cardinals game Week 13 and the Giants game Week 17, the latter of which will be affected by the game’s playoff implications.)
Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
Other possible games: I completely misread Packers-Steelers as a CBS game last week, but Falcons-Jets, Bears-Ravens, or 49ers-Eagles are still better games involving two teams each above .500; none have the name value of the Steelers, though, and while the other Fox Steelers game is more attractive against the Vikings, it’s an early game as soon as Week 7 that’s unlikely to be shown in the late slot. In this sense, protecting the only half-decent game they had was a shoo-in for CBS.

Week 16 (December 27)

Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
Prospects: Could go either way, at 3-2 v. 2-3, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so its chances of keeping its spot are probably better than even. Given how crappy Fox’s games are and how marquee this game is regardless of records, it’s no wonder Fox left this week unprotected despite the bounty of great games last week and the (arguably) even more marquee game Week 14.
Likely protections: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
Other possible games: Jets-Colts or Broncos-Eagles.

Week 17 (January 3):

Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

College Football Schedule – Week 7

October 13, 2009 by Morgan Wick

Once again, we have boatloads of great games this week up and down the rankings, with five games just between teams in the Top 25. All times Eastern.

TOP 25 GAMES
#7 Oklahoma	v.	#1 Texas	Noon	ABC	Brent Musberger, Kirk Herbstreit, Lisa Salters
#20 Arkansas	@	#2 Florida*	3:30	CBS	Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson, Tracy Wolfson
South Carolina	@	#3 Alabama	7:30	ESPN	Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, Erin Andrews
#4 Cincinnati	@	#17 South Florida	7:30 TH	ESPN	Chris Fowler, Craig James, Jesse Palmer, Erin Andrews
#5 Virginia Tech	@	Georgia Tech	6 PM	ESPN2	Mark Jones, Bob Davie
#18 Texas Tech	@	#6 Nebraska	3:30	ABC/ESPN	Mike Patrick, Craig James, Heather Cox
#8 Iowa	@	Wisconsin	Noon	ESPN	Dave Pasch, Bob Griese, Chris Spielman
#9 Ohio State	@	Purdue	Noon	BTN	Wayne Larrivee, Chris Martin, Rebecca Haarlow
#10 Boise State	@	Tulsa	8 PM WE	ESPN	Rece Davis, Mark May, Lou Holtz, Todd Harris
Colorado State	@	#12 TCU	4 PM	VS.	Joe Beninati, Glenn Parker, Tim Neverett
#13 Kansas	@	Colorado	7 PM	FSN	Bill Land, Dave Lapham, Emily Jones
#14 USC	@	#21 Notre Dame	3:30	NBC	Tom Hammond, Pat Haden, Alex Flanagan
#15 Pittsburgh	@	Rutgers	8 PM FR	ESPN	Joe Tessitore, Rod Gilmore
Minnesota	@	#19 Penn State	3:30	ABC/ESPN	Sean McDonough, Matt Millen, Holly Rowe
Delaware State	@	#22 Michigan	Noon	BTN	Matt Devlin, Mark Campbell, Brent Stover
Louisville	@	#23 Connecticut	Noon	B.E. Network	Mike Gleason, John Congemi, Quint Kessenich
Stanford	@	#24 Arizona	7:30	VS.	Ron Thulin, Kelly Stouffer, Lewis Johnson
#25 Virginia	@	Maryland	4 PM	ESPNU	Todd Harris, JC Pearson
WATCHLIST AND OTHER POSITIVE B POINT TEAMS
Wake Forest	@	Clemson	Noon	Raycom	Steve Martin, Rick Walker, Mike Hogewood
Marshall	@	West Virginia	3:30	B.E. Network	John Sanders, Danny Kanell
Utah	@	UNLV	7 PT	mtn.	Bill Doleman, Robert Griffith, Toby Christensen
UAB	@	Mississippi	7 PM	SEC/FSN	Bob Rathbun, Dave Archer, Jenn Hildreth
Kentucky	@	Auburn	7:30	ESPNU	Eric Collins, Brock Huard
San Jose State	@	Fresno State	7 PT	CBSCS XXL
Northern Illinois	@	Toledo	7 PM	CSD.com
THIS WEEK’S OTHER HD GAMES
Arkansas State	@	Louisiana-Monroe	8 PM TU	ESPN2	Rob Stone, Shaun King
Northwestern	@	Michigan State	Noon	ESPN2	Pam Ward, Ray Bentley
Georgia	@	Vanderbilt	Noon	SEC Network	Dave Neal, Andre Ware, Cara Capuano
Mississippi State	@	Middle Tenn. St.	12:30	ESPNU	Clay Matvick, David Diaz-Infante
NC State	@	Boston College	3:30	ABC	Bob Wischusen, Brian Griese
California	@	UCLA	3:30	ABC	Terry Gannon, David Norrie
Houston	@	Tulane	3:30	CBS CS	Dave Ryan, Akbar Gbaja-Biamila
Illinois	@	Indiana	7 PM	BTN	Craig Coshun, Anthony Herron, Mike Hall
Texas A&M	@	Kansas State	7 PM	FCS	Dan McLaughlin, Yogi Roth, Samantha Steele
Miami (FL)	@	Central Florida	7:30	CBS CS	Tom Hart, Aaron Taylor
Missouri	@	Oklahoma State	9 PM	ESPN2	Ron Franklin, Ed Cunningham
Washington	@	Arizona State	7 PT	FSN	Barry Tompkins, Petros Papadakis, Michael Eaves
BIG 12
Baylor	@	Iowa State	7 PM
MOUNTAIN WEST
Wyoming	@	Air Force	2 PM	mtn.	Dan Gutowsky, Jay Leeuwunberg, Roger Bailey
BYU	@	San Diego State	6 PM	mtn.	Ari Wolfe, Blaine Fowler, Jenny Cavnar
WAC
Nevada	@	Utah State	3 PM	KAME/CSN CA
New Mexico State	@	Louisiana Tech	4 PM
Hawaii	@	Idaho	5 PM	ESPN+
CONFERENCE USA
Rice	@	East Carolina	3:30	MASN/XXL	Patrick Kinas, Billy Weaver, Brian Meador
Memphis	@	Southern Miss	7 PM	CBSCS XXL
SUN BELT
Troy	@	Florida International	7 PM	CSD.com
Louisiana-Lafayette	@	Western Kentucky	7 PM
Florida Atlantic	@	North Texas	8 PM	CST	Todd Kalas, Derek Rackley
MAC
Bowling Green	@	Ball State	Noon	CSD.com
Miami (OH)	@	Ohio	2 PM	CSD.com
Akron	@	Buffalo	3:30	FS Ohio TW Cable	Michael Reghi, Hanford Dixon Howard Simon, Ruben Brown
Central Michigan	@	Western Michigan	3:30	FS Detroit+	Jeff Phelps, Rob Otto
Kent State	@	Eastern Michigan	4 PM	CSD.com
BOWL SUBDIVISION
Army	@	Temple	1 PM	CSD.com
Navy	@	SMU	8 PM	MASN/XXL

2009 College Football Rankings – Week 6

October 12, 2009 by Morgan Wick

Every undefeated team is in the Top 25 and this year is shaping up to be very different from the past few years since 2005. It’s a weak year for mid-majors with only two teams (Boise State and TCU) that remain viable BCS busters, but we have two unbeatens each in the Big 12 and SEC in opposite divisions, plus one in the Big Ten… and two in the back-to-prominence Big East, including a Cincinnati team that looks very, VERY strong right now. Combine that with the fact that the Big Ten team isn’t Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, or even Wisconsin, but Iowa, as well as the fact that the second Big 12 team is Kansas, and this year is looking like the Revenge of the Ignored BCS Teams, one of the major themes of 2006 and 2007. And then there’s the ever-present possibility that we’ll need to put a one-loss team in the national championship game…

Of course, those “lesser” teams are still staying behind in the C Ratings to the Big 3 teams widely considered the national championship favorites, which finally line up at 1-2-3 this week. But to leapfrog Alabama over Texas this week, as the AP poll did, may just be giving the Longhorns bulletin board material. Even Florida’s big win over LSU, while significant for beating a good team, was against a team on the downslope and wasn’t by much, meaning Texas still stands in the way of anointing a Florida-Alabama SEC Title Game as a national title game before the title game like last year. Colt McCoy gets his opportunity at the national spotlight, and possible biggest test before the Big 12 title game, this week against an Oklahoma team that finally has Sam Bradford back. But what’s the biggest game of the week, the Red River Rivalry or the battle of unbeatens between Cincinnati and South Florida?

Meanwhile, at the bottom of the rankings there’s chaos as teams move into the Top 25 despite not playing (Notre Dame) or even losing (Michigan)… yet some of the teams that had to lose to make that possible still stay in the Top 25 and even move up. Instead among the teams leaving the Top 25 is Clemson, who also didn’t play – and Auburn, who had been in the top ten! Talk about this week’s California! Are we sure we’re a full six weeks into the season?

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking the difference between the team’s B Rating and his conference’s rating, taking a fraction of that equal to the fraction of Division I-A the conference makes up, and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1	Texas (5-0) Big 12 Leader	.823	26.378	23.728	Sure they had a slow start and let Colorado take the lead in the first two quarters, but everyone takes a while to wake up sometimes, and the Longhorns were able to rectify that problem in the second half. But no slow starts against OU.
2	Florida (5-0) SEC Leader Princeton-Yale Title	.887	26.029	23.399	Urban Meyer’s cautiousness with Tim Tebow’s concussion may have cost the Gators a return trip to #1. But now the path seems clear to another SEC East title – but don’t have a letdown game! Arkansas looks very strong now.
3	Alabama (6-0)	.829	25.462	22.889	Penalized in the C Ratings for playing two Sun Belt teams and relatively tight pull-outs over V-Tech and Kentucky. But beating Ole Miss like that is a statement that announces with LSU gone, the West is yours to lose.
4	Cincinnati (5-0) Big East Leader	.792	20.677	19.280	They took a week off and Florida and Alabama still needed to make major statements to leapfrog them. The Bearcats still won’t go away – but now they face their biggest game of the season Thursday against fellow unbeaten USF.
5	Virginia Tech (5-1) ACC Leader	.575	21.070	18.551	If Alabama takes a couple of stumbles – a very real possibility with how tough the West is – V-Tech becomes a national title contender. But think of the respect they’d bring to the ACC – in losing – if they turn out to be ‘Bama’s biggest test.
6	Nebraska (4-1)	.655	14.972	13.462	Like Texas, they got off to a slow start against Missouri (a better team than Colorado) before pulling away to a big win late. With the one loss against V-Tech, do they become national title contenders if unbeatens start losing?
7	Oklahoma (3-2)	.460	14.547	13.080	Oklahoma with Sam Bradford is one of the top two teams in the Big 12, and the Baylor game was an announcement: he’s back, and the Sooners look to overturn the Longhorns’ road to the national title game – and preserve their own slim hopes.
8	Iowa (6-0) Big Ten Leader	.671	13.246	11.513	Pulling out a win that close at home, even against Michigan, may have dashed whatever national title hopes the Hawkeyes had, but Iowa City remains firmly in the national spotlight. Now on to Wisconsin.
9	Ohio State (5-1)	.633	12.283	10.638	People seem to have forgotten about this year’s choke in a big regular-season game, especially after the big win over Wisconsin. Will they be reminded this November? No need to worry about that now – focus on Purdue this week.
10	Boise State (5-0) Non-BCS Leader	.815	12.348	10.071	The Broncos’ schedule held up so well that because of losses and other weeks off, Boise State moves up despite taking a week off. But there’s a reason the Tulsa game was scheduled for national television…
11	Oregon (5-1) Pac-10 Leader 2006 Boise State Title	.562	10.282	8.894	Who could have predicted this would happen after the debacle that was the Boise State game? You think part of the reason they’re considering reinstating LeGarrette Blount is for similar reasons to the 49ers finally signing Crabtree?
12	TCU (5-0)	.723	10.742	8.598	TCU ruined CBS College Sports’ service-academy weekend with a win over Air Force that, while tight, was still a win over the third-best team in the Mountain West. Now Colorado State will serve as a warm-up for BYU in two weeks.
13	Kansas (5-0)	.769	9.416	8.462	Iowa State is an awfully mediocre team to get that far into the game, and Southern Miss and especially UTEP losing didn’t help. The Nebraska in the fourth quarter of the Missouri game should put a scare in the Jayhawks’ Big 12 North hopes.
14	USC (4-1)	.608	8.206	6.992	Something’s different about this year’s letdown game: the Trojans have fallen completely off the map, which didn’t happen even in 2007. They slip for a week off, but they desperately need to beat Notre Dame to get back on the radar.
15	Pittsburgh (5-1)	.594	6.308	5.869	The win over UConn wasn’t much, but it was still a major, major win over a very good team, and other teams took weeks off or lost – so why is Pitt still not ranked in either poll, given the Big East’s nonconference success?
16	LSU (5-1)	.519	6.034	5.403	Florida is great, but the way their defense handled the Tiger offense such that Tebow didn’t have to do much should be deeply troubling. Now they’ll slip for a week off before playing… Auburn. Well, at least they had their own bad loss.
17	South Florida (5-0)	.845	5.487	5.102	So, has Florida’s Big 3 become a Big 4? The Bulls are better than the others except Florida and though they have no conference titles, if they beat Cincy the Big East is theirs to lose. But Florida State is the only team worth a damn they’ve played.
18	Texas Tech (4-2)*	.464	4.082	3.661	What the heck? Texas Tech is still winless on the road and Kansas State is the best team beaten so far yet still on the last page of the complete rankings, but it was a blowout they needed, and give them credit for staying in their losses.
19	Penn State (5-1)	.643	4.551	3.615	Don’t slip too far for blowing out FCS Eastern Illinois, but do fall behind freaking Texas Tech. They get back to playing real teams this week against Minnesota.
20	Arkansas (3-2)	.351	2.302	2.044	For Arkansas, this is the opposite of 2006. That year, everyone fell in love with them after they beat Auburn, but the C Ratings didn’t trust them. This year, they move into the Top 25 in the Ratings but not the polls. Now comes… Florida.
21	Notre Dame (4-1)	.488	1.937	1.937	The Cardiac Domers move into the Top 25 for the first time since 2006 despite not playing because of losses by, among others, Arizona to the last team they played. But now comes a major, major test against USC.
22	Michigan (4-2)	.417	2.381	1.644	So much for the “Forcier for Heisman” campaign. Even the big win over Notre Dame seems like a long time ago. But they still move back into the Top 25 despite losing because they kept it close against possibly the best team in the Big Ten.
23	Connecticut (3-2)	.365	1.738	1.603	UConn couldn’t get the job done against Pitt, though they put in a valiant effort. Time to get back on the winning track this week against Louisville.
24	Arizona (3-2)	.351	2.030	1.331	By all rights, Arizona should have won that game against Washington, but lost on the flukiest of fluke plays – and I live within walking distance of the UW campus. But if they want to prove they deserve this ranking, they better beat Stanford.
25	Virginia (2-3)*	.223	1.623	1.049	Virginia’s presence on the Top 25 might be more explicable than Clemson’s last week – I keep meaning to correct it so FCS losses actually penalize you in more than A Rating! But they kept it close against Southern Miss and have won their last two.

38 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #26 Clemson (was #24), #29 Mississippi (was #20), #32 Auburn (was #6), #38 Stanford (was #23), #39 Missouri (was #22)

Watch List: #26 Clemson, #27 West Virginia, #28 Utah, #29 Mississippi, #30 Georgia Tech*, #31 Oregon State*, #32 Auburn, #33 Florida State

Other Positive B Ratings: #34 Duke*, #35 Wake Forest, #38 Stanford, #43 Fresno State*, #46 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #37 South Carolina, #39 Missouri, #49 UCLA

>If there were a watch list for becoming positive, it would include #36 Tennessee, #37 South Carolina, #39 Missouri, #40 Miami (FL), #41 Wisconsin, #42 Oklahoma State, #44 Arizona State, #45 Rutgers, #47 Navy, #48 Air Force, #49 UCLA, #50 Iowa State, #51 BYU, and #52 Minnesota. And shockingly, #53 is Idaho, which has been AWFUL in past years. With a lot of intra-Top-25 matchups, next week could be at least as volatile as this one.

Bottom 10: #111 UNLV, #112 Tulane, #113 Memphis, #114 Toledo, #115 Eastern Michigan, #116 Washington State, #117 Western Kentucky, #118 Miami (OH), #119 New Mexico, #120 Rice

Conference Rating: #1 Big 12 (-.125), #2 SEC (-.274), #3 Big East (-.285), #4 ACC (-4.113), #5 Big 10 (-5.664), #6 Pac-10 (-6.366), #7 Mountain West (-17.842), #8 WAC (-18.012), #9 C-USA (-22.948), #10 Sun Belt (-23.478), #11 MAC (-27.291)

Best game of week: Oklahoma v. Texas, 9am PT, ABC

All logos taken from Sportslogos.net, and are the trademarks of their respective schools, used without permission under fair-use clause of United States copyright law. Some logos may be out of date. Use of logos for commercial purposes without consent of the respective schools is prohibited.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 4

October 8, 2009 by Morgan Wick

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

Begins Sunday of Week 11
In effect during Weeks 11-17
Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
NFL schedules all games.
Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections are being scheduled now, after Week 4.
Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Colts have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since three other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. NBC appearances for all teams: TEN 2, PIT 3 (1 flexible), CHI 3 (1 flexible), GB 1, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 3 (1 flexible), IND 3, ARI 2, SD 1, ATL 1, PHI 4 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 1 (flexible), MIA 1 (flexible), MIN 1 (flexible), CAR 1 (flexible), WAS 1 (flexible). All primetime appearances for all teams: TEN 4, PIT 5 (1 flexible), CHI 5 (1 flexible), GB 3, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 5 (1 flexible), IND 5, ARI 3, SD 4, ATL 2, PHI 3 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 3 (1 flexible), MIA 4 (1 flexible), MIN 3 (1 flexible), CAR 3 (1 flexible), WAS 3 (1 flexible), BUF 2, OAK 1, NYJ 2, DEN 3, NO 3, SF 2, CLE 2, HOU 1, JAX 1.
A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
Prospects: 2-1 v. 3-1, with a decent chance of keeping its spot.
Likely protections: Jets-Patriots or Colts-Ravens, most likely the former (CBS) and Giants-Falcons or Redskins-Cowboys (FOX).
Other possible games: Chargers-Broncos and 49ers-Packers are the major contenders right now other than the protected games.

Week 12 (November 29):

Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Prospects: 2-2 v. 3-1, but the Steelers are defending champs and it’s a rivalry game. If the Steelers can rebound from their slow start they have a good chance of keeping their spot.
Likely protections: If anything, Jaguars-49ers or Colts-Texans (CBS) and Bears-Vikings (FOX).
Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there is some slim pickings for games – the major reason this might be CBS’ unprotected week is that Bears-Vikings is the only Saturday game without a team with two or more losses. Jaguars-49ers, Colts-Texans, and Redskins-Eagles are the other games involving a 2-2 team playing a team with less than 2 losses, but CBS’ power rankings expects the Steelers to be better than the Niners right now (and Fox has them ahead of the Broncos!).

Week 13 (December 6):

Tentative game: New England @ Miami
Prospects: A little lopsided at 3-1 v. 1-3, but anything can happen.
Likely protections: Eagles-Falcons, Cowboys-Giants, or Vikings-Cardinals (FOX) and Jaguars-Texans if anything (CBS).
Other possible games: The only reason CBS might protect a game this week is because of the weakness of the tentative game, but for them to protect any game other than the battle of 2-2 teams is to take a leap of faith that some team below .500 is going to improve. The major candidates are the Fox unprotected games above, and only if teams improve – Eagles-Falcons is the only Saturday game this week pitting two teams with one or no losses.

Week 14 (December 13):

Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings) , the Giants are 4-0, and the Eagles are considered by most to be closer to 3-1 than 2-2. Pretty good shot to keep its spot, which means Fox could leave this week unprotected. But Fox has a single good game, and the next week has a ton of them and another tentative game that would go to them with a flex, so I say they go ahead and protect this week.
Likely protections: Bengals-Vikings or Broncos-Colts (CBS) and Saints-Falcons (FOX).
Other possible games: Chargers-Cowboys or Packers-Bears.

Week 15 (December 20):

Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
Prospects: Incredibly lopsided, with the Vikings unbeaten and the Panthers winless, but it’s the only game slotted for NBC and SNF’s best shot to get Brett Favre other than this game is the Cardinals game Week 13 and the Giants game Week 17, the latter of which will be affected by the game’s playoff implications.
Likely protections: Falcons-Jets, Bears-Ravens, or 49ers-Eagles (Fox) and if anything, Packers-Steelers or Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
Other possible games: See above. The bounty of great games on Fox will still include a protection for reasons described below, while this is CBS’ third nominee for an unprotected week; they might still protect a game (probably Packers-Steelers) because they wouldn’t get anything back, or they could bet that even if NBC flexes away from Vikings-Panthers it’s probably to another Fox game.

Week 16 (December 27):

Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
Prospects: Could go either way, with both teams at 2-2, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so its chances of keeping its spot are probably better than even. Given how crappy Fox’s games are and how marquee this game is regardless of records, I’d say this is the likeliest spot for their unprotected game.
Likely protections: Jets-Colts, Ravens-Steelers, or Broncos-Eagles (CBS).
Other possible games: Jaguars-Patriots.

Week 17 (January 3):

Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

College Football Schedule – Week 6

October 7, 2009 by Morgan Wick

We make up for lost time this week with more great games than you can shake a stick at (four between teams in the top 25 and four more between teams in positive B Points), and one game has already come and gone, so let’s not delay any longer! All times Eastern.

TOP 25 GAMES
Colorado	@	#1 Texas	7:15	ESPN	Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, Erin Andrews
#3 Florida*	@	#10 LSU	8 PM	CBS	Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson, Tracy Wolfson
#4 Alabama	@	#20 Mississippi	3:30	CBS	Craig Bolerjack, Steve Beuerlein
Michigan	@	#5 Iowa	8 PM	ABC	Brent Musburger, Kirk Herbstreit, Lisa Salters
#6 Auburn	@	Arkansas	Noon	ESPN	Dave Pasch, Bob Griese, Chris Spielman
Boston College	@	#7 Virginia Tech	Noon	Raycom	Tim Brant, Rick Walker, Mike Hogewood
Wisconsin	@	#8 Ohio State	3:30	ABC/ESPN	Sean McDonough, Matt Millen, Holly Rowe
Iowa State	@	#9 Kansas	12:30	VS.	Ron Thulin, Kelly Stouffer, Lewis Johnson
Baylor	@	#11 Oklahoma	3:30	ABC	Ron Franklin, Ed Cuningham
#14 Nebraska	@	#22 Missouri	9 PM TH	ESPN	Chris Fowler, Craig James, Jesse Palmer, Erin Andrews
#16 Oregon*	@	UCLA	3:30	ABC	Terry Gannon, David Norrie
#17 TCU	@	Air Force	7:30	CBS CS	Tom Hart, Aaron Taylor
Eastern Illinois	@	#18 Penn State	Noon	ESPN Classic	Dave Lamont, JC Pearson
#21 Connecticut	@	#19 Pittsburgh	3:30	ABC/ESPN	Mike Patrick, Craig James, Heather Cox
#23 Stanford	@	Oregon State	7 PM	FSN	Barry Tompkins, Petros Papadakis, Michael Eaves
#25 Arizona	@	Washington	7 PT	FSNW/AZ/FCS	Tom Glasgow, Mack Strong, Jen Mueller
WATCHLIST AND OTHER POSITIVE B POINT TEAMS
Kentucky	@	South Carolina	12:30	SEC/FSN	Bob Rathbun, David Archer, Jenn Hildreth
Georgia Tech	@	Florida State	8 PM	ESPN2	Mark Jones, Bob Davie
West Virginia	@	Syracuse	Noon	B.E. Network	Mike Gleason, John Congemi
Maryland	@	Wake Forest	6:30	ESPN360	Jeff Dantzler, Jim Donnan
Utah	@	Colorado State	6 PM	mtn.	James Bates, Todd Christensen, Roger Bailey
THIS WEEK’S OTHER HD GAMES
Middle Tenn. St.	7-31	Troy	8 PM TU	ESPN2	Eric Collins, Brock Huard
Louisiana Tech	@	Nevada	9 PM FR	ESPN	Joe Tessitore, Rod Gilmore
Purdue	@	Minnesota	Noon	ESPN2	Pam Ward, Ray Bentley
Vanderbilt	@	Army	Noon	CBS CS	Dave Ryan, Jason Sehorn, Devin Adams
Michigan State	@	Illinois	Noon	BTN	Wayne Larrivee, Chris Martin, Brent Stover
Miami (OH)	@	Northwestern	Noon	BTN	Ari Wolfe, Glen Mason, Anthony Herron
Georgia	@	Tennessee	Noon	SEC Network	Dave Neal, Andre Ware, Cara Capuano
Oklahoma State	@	Texas A&M	12:30	FSN	Joel Meyers, Dave Lapham, Jim Knox
Houston	@	Mississippi State	12:30	ESPNU	Eric Collins, Brock Huard
Navy	@	Rice	3:30	CBS CS	Jason Knapp, Akbar Gbaja-Biamila
Duke	@	NC State	4 PM	ESPNU	Carter Blackburn, Charles Arbuckle
Kansas State	@	Texas Tech	7 PM	FS SW	Bill Land, Gary Reasons, Emily Jones
Southern Miss	@	Louisville	7:30	ESPNU	Clay Matvick, David Diaz-Infante
Fresno State	@	Hawaii	8 PT	Gameplan	Ralph Wood, Randy Rosenbloom (FSU) Jim Leahey, Russell Yamahoa (HI HD)
BIG EAST
Texas Southern	@	Rutgers	3:30
ACC
Georgia Southern	@	North Carolina	3:30	ESPN360	Ryan Rose, Danny Kannell
Florida A&M	@	Miami (FL)	7 PM	ESPN360	Jim Barbar, Je’Rod Cherry
PAC-10
Arizona State	@	Washington State	5 PM
WAC
Utah State	@	New Mexico State	8 PM	Gameplan	Glen Cerny, Danny Knee
Idaho	@	San Jose State	8 PM	Gameplan	Bob Akamian, Mike Lamb
MOUNTAIN WEST
New Mexico	@	Wyoming	2 PM	mtn.	Dan Gutowsky, Jay Leeewunberg, Andrea Lloyd
BYU	@	UNLV	7 PT	mtn.	Tim Neverett, Blaine Fowler, Molly Sullivan
CONFERENCE USA
Marshall	@	Tulane	3:30	CSS/CST	Bob Neal, Chuck Oliver, Allison Williams
East Carolina	@	SMU	8 PM	CBSCS XXL	CJ Martin, Bruce Wiseman, Dave Michaels
UTEP	@	Memphis	8 PM	FCS	Sam Smith, Roger Schultz
SUN BELT
North Texas	@	Louisiana-Lafayette	7 PM	CSS/CST	Todd Kalas, Derek Rackley
Florida International	@	Western Kentucky	7 PM
MAC
Eastern Michigan	@	Central Michigan	Noon	MAC/ESPN+	Michael Reghi, Doug Chapman
Ball State	@	Temple	1 PM	CSD.com
Bowling Green	@	Kent State	3:30	FS Ohio	Jeff Phelps, Rob Otto
Gardner-Webb	@	Buffalo	3:30	CSD.com	Howard Simon, Ruben Brown
Ohio	@	Akron	6 PM	CSD.com
BOWL SUBDIVISION
Indiana	@	Virginia	3:30	ESPN360	Frank Giardina, Sonny Randle

2009 College Football Rankings – Week 5

October 6, 2009October 6, 2009 by Morgan Wick

This was a fairly weak week in college football with a ton of top 25 teams having byes, including the two national title favorites, and the best game of the week being #16 UCLA against Stanford, where the Bruins failed to prove they deserved to be ranked in the polls and the Cardinal earned themselves their first trip to my Top 25 in the time I’ve been tracking them. The bye was worse for Florida than Texas, as Texas’ strength of schedule held up enough that they could flip places with Florida. Iowa moved out of the #2 spot with a closer-than-it-should-have-been win over Arkansas State, but Cincinnati will not go away, and Alabama is finally looking like the team everyone thought they were.

There were games between teams ranked in the top 25 in the polls, but in every case at least one team was way overrated, at least according to the C Ratings. Cal’s ridiculously large tumble following the loss to Oregon was seemingly substantiated by the pedestrian performance against USC, while Oklahoma, now almost certainly out of the national title race (unless this is another 2007 in the sense that a two-loss team finds themselves in the title game) is in theory, hurt more by the loss to Miami than the Hurricanes can bounce back with it, given its closeness.

But we’re going to make up for lost time this week – especially with the return of the Gators against LSU, in what may be their biggest obstacle to a repeat national champion, an LSU team that looks rather weak with a close call against a Georgia team that the C Ratings aren’t as high on as the polls. There’s only one undefeated team – Wisconsin – that’s not on the top 25, and they’ve got a big test against Ohio State this week.

1	Texas (4-0) Big 12 Leader	.825	24.547	22.244	All four of Texas’ opponents so far won – and that win over UTEP looks mighty good right now. And Texas has a somewhat easier challenge ahead against Colorado than Florida does.
2	Cincinnati (5-0) Big East Leader	.792	17.406	16.249	The big win was admittedly against winless Miami (OH), but Oregon State winning made up for that. The Bearcats aren’t going away, and they’re a potential fly in the national championship ointment.
3	Florida (4-0) SEC Leader Princeton-Yale Title	.888	16.980	15.431	Troy didn’t play and Tennessee and Kentucky both lost, and Florida was in trouble anyway for taking the week off. But they needed it to bring Tim Tebow back for the big showdown with LSU.
4	Alabama (5-0)	.808	16.034	14.580	After the way they crushed Kentucky, and how great V-Tech is playing, ‘Bama is finally looking like the championship contender people thought they were – and in a week Florida and Texas didn’t play, they became the people’s favorite.
5	Iowa (5-0) Big Ten Leader	.699	15.812	14.232	Iowa had a close call against Northern Iowa too, which basically doesn’t count against a I-AA team. But it better be the team that beat Penn State that faces Michigan this week in a game for the inside track on the Big Ten title.
6	Auburn (5-0)	.702	10.587	9.677	Both Auburn and Alabama have had periods of brilliance in the last several years, but how huge could the Iron Bowl be this year? After beating Tennessee these Tigers are finally ranked in the polls.
7	Virginia Tech (4-1) ACC Leader	.526	10.212	8.836	The much-maligned ACC may have legitimate national title aspirations this year in the person of Virginia Tech. But even at #5 in the polls, a lot would have to happen for the Hokies to be in Glendale.
8	Ohio State (4-1)	.603	9.768	8.743	The Buckeyes crushed an Indiana team with Big Ten title aspirations, and now won’t have to face any of their major rivals for said title until a November meatgrinder – except Wisconsin this week.
9	Kansas (4-0)	.821	9.294	8.515	Around here, we like to say idle hands are the devil’s workshop, and Kansas’ hands certainly were idle. They return to the exact same spot as before Southern Miss game, and now need to get back up to face Iowa State.
10	LSU (5-0)	.725	9.185	8.416	Too close for comfort against overrated Georgia, taking some of the bite out of the big Florida showdown. That sort of effort just won’t cut it, especially if Tebow’s in the lineup.
11	Oklahoma (2-2)	.367	8.848	8.114	They shut out teams in their wins and lost two games by only one, and so a .500 team is still ranked in the polls. But unless it’s like 2007 in the sense that a two-loss team can sneak into the national title game, they can say goodbye to that.
12	USC (4-1) Pac-10 Leader	.608	8.509	7.403	USC in pole position in the Pac-10? This looks familiar. The Trojans claimed their seeming birthright by demolishing Cal, while Oregon played a team too crappy to keep their lead.
13	Boise State (5-0) Non-BCS Leader	.815	8.858	7.135	One reason V-Tech may have leapfrogged Boise State in the polls: the Broncos played an FCS team. And now they take a week off before facing Tulsa next Wednesday.
14	Nebraska (3-1)	.622	6.633	6.121	Nebraska’s ranked in the polls and their schedule held up enough that the bye didn’t hurt them too much. But they probably need to beat Missouri to maximize their chances of stealing the Big 12 North.
15	South Florida (5-0)	.845	6.300	5.884	Syracuse may be sick of being a doormat, but they’re still enough of one that a 14-point win doesn’t help the Bulls too much. But now comes a big chance to prove their bona fides, and take over Big East pole position, against Cincinnati.
16	Oregon (4-1) 2006 Boise State Title	.521	6.667	5.714	Crushing Washington State isn’t enough, especially with the way USC handled Cal. Can the Ducks bounce back up by beating UCLA?
17	TCU (4-0)	.760	7.258	5.650	Having only two FBS wins, including a tight one over Clemson and a win over a Virginia team that was until now winless, had held TCU back from making the Top 25. But now they have all the makings of a BCS buster.
18	Penn State (4-1)	.585	4.497	3.955	Demolished Illinois to get their groove back and hoping Iowa takes a couple of losses. But they’ll probably slip again next week for playing I-AA Eastern Illinois.
19	Pittsburgh (4-1)	.594	3.668	3.427	Big win over Louisville, but they need to do more to get respect in the polls. Would a win over UConn with higher position in the C Ratings on the line help?
20	Mississippi (3-1)	.552	2.961	2.814	The Rebels took a week off in the ratings for losing to South Carolina, but they bounce right back with a big win over Vanderbilt. But Alabama’s going to be significantly tougher than either…
21	Connecticut (3-1)	.488	2.763	2.582	As noted last week, UConn slips for idle hands, and fall behind Pitt in the process. They have a chance to retake that advantage this week.
22	Missouri (4-0)	.763	2.668	2.552	Big game against Nebraska this week coming out of the bye. Win and the Border War becomes a Big 12 Title Game play-in. Lose and wave goodbye to the Top 25.
23	Stanford (4-1)	.551	2.961	2.317	Is this true? Stanford – Stanford! – is a legit top 25 team? That’s what beating UCLA will do for you, and they’re on the outskirts of the polls too. Never given up > 17 in a win or scored < 24. Oregon State is a potential statement game.
24	Clemson (2-3)	.233	2.923	2.276	What’s keeping a team with a losing record on the Top 25? Every loss was by four points or less and against either good teams (TCU) or on the road (G-Tech, Maryland). MD loss cripples Atlantic chances but Wake will be the real test.
25	Arizona (3-1)	.463	2.912	2.272	Penalized for taking a week off, and now face a Washington team eager to prove the USC game wasn’t a fluke.

34 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #27 UCLA (was #16), #28 Michigan (was #19), #65 Houston (was #24)

Watch List: #26 Wisconsin (only unbeaten team not on top 25), #27 UCLA, #28 Michigan, #29 South Carolina, #30 Florida State, #31 West Virginia, #32 Notre Dame*

Other Positive B Ratings: #33 Wake Forest, #34 Arkansas*, #36 Utah, #45 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #48 Iowa State, #51 Arizona State, #55 SMU, #57 Duke, #61 Indiana, #65 Houston, #70 Texas A&M, #78 Hawaii

Bottom 10: #111 Buffalo, #112 San Jose State, #113 Eastern Michigan, #114 New Mexico State, #115 Memphis, #116 Washington State, #117 Western Kentucky, #118 New Mexico, #119 Miami (OH), #120 Rice

Conference Rating: #1 Big 12 (1.510), #2 SEC (1.492), #3 Big East (.053), #4 Big 10 (-1.417), #5 ACC (-3.548), #6 Pac-10 (-4.761), #7 WAC (-14.119), #8 Mountain West (-14.178), #9 C-USA (-18.771, leader #55 SMU), #10 Sun Belt (-21.808, leader #75 Middle Tenn. St.), #11 MAC (-23.010, leader #45 Northern Illinois)

Best game of week: Florida @ LSU, 5pm PT, CBS

The October of Bye Weeks

October 5, 2009 by Morgan Wick

Florida had a bye this week.

The Bears have a bye this coming week, after which they play the Falcons, who had a bye this past week.

Oregon doesn’t have a bye this week but does have one next week.

And the lineal title updates are probably among the worst, most boring posts I make all week if not all year. I’d roll them up with the rankings if that worked for the NFL title, and I’d rather not contaminate the SNF watch with that sort of wankery. (That the Bears blew out a team as boring and mediocre as the Lions doesn’t help.) I’m considering moving notices of lineal title updates almost entirely to Twitter.

Umm… if you believe the hype, Florida-LSU is the best hope for a Princeton-Yale title change until the SEC Championship Game?

College Football Schedule – Week 5

September 30, 2009 by Morgan Wick

Bit of a holding pattern this week, with no real great matchups, or relatively many games at all. All times Eastern.

TOP 25 GAMES
Arkansas State	@	#2 Iowa	Noon	ESPN2	Pam Ward, Ray Bentley
#4 Cincinnati	@	Miami (OH)	1 PM	ESPN360	Jim Barbar, Bob Chmiel
#5 Oklahoma	@	Miami (FL)	8 PM	ABC	Brent Musberger, Kirk Herbstreit, Lisa Salters
#7 Virginia Tech	@	Duke	Noon	ESPN360	Dave Weekley, Danny Kanell
#8 Alabama	@	Kentucky	Noon	SEC Network	Dave Neal, Andre Ware, Cara Capuano
#9 LSU	@	Georgia	3:30	CBS	Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson, Tracy Wolfson
#10 Auburn	@	Tennessee	7:30	ESPN	Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, Erin Andrews
UC Davis	@	#11 Boise State	8 PM	CSN CA	Mark Johnson, Tom Scott, David Augusto
Washington State	@	#12 *Oregon	9 PM	CSN NW	Joe Giansante, Anthony Newman
#14 South Florida	@	Syracuse	Noon	B.E. Network	Mike Gleason, John Congemi, Quint Kessenich
#15 Ohio State	@	Indiana	7 PM	BTN	Craig Coshun, Glen Mason, Rebecca Haarlow
#16 UCLA	@	Stanford	3:30	ABC	Dave Lamont, David Norrie
#17 Clemson	@	Maryland	Noon	ESPNU	Clay Matvick, David Diaz-Infante
#18 Michigan	@	Michigan State	Noon	BTN	Wayne Larrivee, Chris Martin, Charissa Thompson
#21 USC	@	California	8 PM	ABC	Ron Franklin, Ed Cunningham
#23 Penn State	@	Illinois	3:30	ABC/ESPN	Mike Patrick, Craig James, Heather Cox
#24 Houston	@	UTEP	9 PM	CBSCS XXL	Carter Blackburn, Jon Berger
#25 Pittsburgh	@	Louisville	8 PM FR	ESPN2	Joe Tessitore, Rod Gilmore
WATCHLIST AND OTHER POSITIVE B POINT TEAMS
Texas A&M	v.	Arkansas	7:30	ESPN2	Mark Jones, Bob Davie
SMU	@	TCU	8 PM	mtn.	James Bates, Todd Christensen, Cash Sirois
Florida State	@	Boston College	3:30	ABC/ESPN	Sean McDonough, Matt Millen, Holly Rowe
Oregon State	@	Arizona State	7 PM	VS.	Ron Thulin, Kelly Stouffer, Lewis Johnson
South Carolina State	@	South Carolina	7 PM	ESPN Classic	Bob Wischusen, Brian Griese
Mississippi	@	Vanderbilt	7 PM	ESPNU	Eric Collins, Brock Huard
Kansas State	v.	Iowa State	3 PM	FCS	Dan McLaughlin, Yogi Roth, Samantha Steele
Wisconsin	@	Minnesota	Noon	ESPN	Dave Pasch, Bob Griese, Chris Spielman
Colorado	@	West Virginia	7:30 TH	ESPN	Chris Fowler, Craig James, Jesse Palmer, Erin Andrews
NC State	@	Wake Forest	3:30	ESPNU	Todd Harris, Charles Arbuckle
Hawaii	@	Louisiana Tech	8 PM WE	ESPN2	Rece Davis, Mark May, Lou Holtz, Rob Stone
THIS WEEK’S OTHER HD GAMES
Southern Miss	@	UAB	8 PM TH	CBS CS	Dave Ryan, Akbar Gbaja-Biamila
East Carolina	@	Marshall	Noon	CBS CS	Tom Hart, Aaron Taylor
Northwestern	@	Purdue	Noon	BTN	Ari Wolfe, Anthony Herron, Tony McGee
Virginia	@	North Carolina	Noon	Raycom	Steve Martin, Rick Walker, Mike Hogewood
Washington	@	Notre Dame	3:30	NBC	Tom Hammond, Pat Haden, Alex Flanagan
New Mexico	@	Texas Tech	3:30	FSN	Bill Land, Gary Reasons, Emily Jones
Air Force	@	Navy	3:30	CBS CS	Craig Bolerjack, Randy Cross
Kent State	@	Baylor	7 PM	FS SW
Tulsa	@	Rice	7:30	CBS CS	Jason Knapp, Akbar Gbaja-Biamila
Georgia Tech	@	Mississippi State	7:30	CSS	Doug Bell, Chris Doering
Colorado State	@	Idaho	7:30 PT	ESPNU
MWC
Utah State	@	BYU	9 PM FR	mtn.	Bill Doleman, Blaine Fowler, Toby Christensen
UNLV	@	Nevada	3 PM	CSD.com
New Mexico State	@	San Diego State	8 PM
CONFERENCE USA
Memphis	@	Central Florida	3:30	CBSCS XXL	Drew Fellios, Mark Royals, Dave Baumann
MAC
Toledo	@	Ball State	Noon	ESPN+	Michael Reghi, Doug Chapman
Temple	@	Eastern Michigan	1 PM	CSD.com
Western Michigan	@	Northern Illinois	3:30	CSN Chicago	Dave Kaplan, Bob Chmiel, Jim Blaney
Central Michigan	@	Buffalo	3:30	Gameplan	Howard Simon, Brian Koziol
Ohio	@	Bowling Green	4 PM	CSD.com	Greg Franke, Tom Cole
SUN BELT
Florida International	@	Louisiana-Monroe	3:30	CSS/CST	Todd Kalas, Derek Rackley
BOWL SUBDIVISION
Wyoming	@	Florida Atlantic	4 PM

2009 College Football Rankings – Week 4

September 29, 2009 by Morgan Wick

It’s still way too early to know what sort of college football season we’re going to have, although it is starting to take shape. The general consensus so far seems to be that, while not quite as wild as 2007, the 2009 college football season may well be very upset-ridden… but it’s hard to know whether any of these games should really be considered upsets.

People have complained about the preseason polls for a long time, and this year seems to have underscored it. Ole Miss was ranked very highly in the polls, rising to #4 after the first three weeks, only to fall to South Carolina. That sparked a discussion as to whether Ole Miss should have had that much hype thrust upon them without this year’s version of the team having done anything to deserve it. After all, we’re hit with surprise teams in both directions all the time in pro sports; why should college be any less of a crap shoot to predict?

But the rest of the weekend seems to have suggested that’s not the problem. Miami (FL) wasn’t ranked at all in the preseason poll and rose to the top ten in only three weeks, only to be demolished by Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, the two teams considered the undisputed top two in the country on the basis of the preseason polls, Florida and Texas, thanks to the volatility of the early rankings, have zoomed up to take two of the top three spots in the C Ratings – they are who we thought they were, despite the Gators losing Tim Tebow during the Kentucky game. That the C Ratings already reflect the national consensus in this area suggests people should pay close attention to the fact Iowa stands between the two in the 2 hole – they are the real deal, and should be considered a budding national championship contender.

I heard someone on ESPN (Kirk Herbstreit?) suggest that the preseason polls are too useful for focusing our attention on certain teams early in the season, so we should keep them but make them meaningless later. Individual conferences have media and coaches’ preseason polls and don’t even have polls during and after the season; to say the conferences should have preseason polls and the entire country shouldn’t seems absurd. Here’s my solution: Have a preseason poll, but hold off on putting out any other polls until week 4 or so, maybe even as late as the release of the first BCS standings. That way, instead of having pollsters make requisite “tweaks” from week to week, you force them to look at the entire body of work of the first four weeks and free them to make a fresh, unencumbered ranking.

1	Florida (4-0) SEC Leader Princeton-Yale Title	.888	21.444	19.498	Demolished Kentucky for Wildcats’ first loss, even once Tim Tebow left. Good thing they have the bye before LSU; with this lead and Iowa playing lowly Arkansas State they might not even lose the top spot.
2	Iowa (4-0) Big Ten Leader	.733	19.202	17.425	Obviously, Iowa’s ranked in the polls now, but right now they’re ranked behind the Buckeyes’ bigger name. Will they get the respect they deserve if they beat Michigan in two weeks?
3	Texas (4-0) Big 12 Leader	.825	16.770	15.373	An impressive blowout of UTEP going into the bye; UTEP’s weak standing and Texas Tech losing keeps them behind Iowa. Taking a bye will hurt them as well, and Colorado will just be a tune-up for the Red River Rivalry.
4	Cincinnati (4-0) Big East Leader	.785	15.879	14.875	Escaping with an 8-point victory over weak Fresno State the main reason the Bearcats slip, as is Oregon State losing. But they might still be a national championship gadfly, especially if the Big East is as down as everyone thinks.
5	Oklahoma (2-1)	.547	11.562	10.685	Huh? Oklahoma moving up despite not playing? Credit big wins for both FBS opponents. Imagine where they’d be if Sam Bradford hadn’t gotten injured. Now to get to work this week against Miami.
6	Kansas (4-0)	.821	9.890	9.180	Handed Southern Miss their first loss, but it was by only a touchdown, preventing them from leapfrogging their Southern brethren. And now they could slip back after the bye.
7	Virginia Tech (3-1) ACC Leader	.501	9.818	8.593	What Alabama loss? Beating a team with as much hype as Miami by that much earns the Hokies their own ticket to the top ten in the polls.
8	Alabama (4-0)	.826	9.042	8.336	Alabama is showing as the second-best team in the SEC now, but other than V-Tech no team they’ve played measures up to a Miami. Kentucky has a higher A Rating than Arkansas, but the real test: Ole Miss in two weeks.
9	LSU (4-0)	.737	8.549	7.892	Way too tight a pullout against weak Mississippi State, but the real bad news is big losses for Washington and especially Louisiana-Lafayette. Will Georgia be enough tune-up for Florida in two weeks?
10	Auburn (4-0)	.733	8.452	7.805	Winless Ball State just doesn’t get within two touchdowns, or score as many as 30 in general, in Jordan-Hare Stadium. And the only opponent that had a game lost. Will a road trip to Tennessee be a rebound, or an upset opportunity?
11	Boise State (4-0) Non-BCS Leader	.828	8.747	7.147	A blowout’s a blowout, especially on the road. And the win over Oregon is starting to look more and more impressive as the Ducks continue to win. At 5th in the polls, might they have a real shot at the national title game?
12	Oregon (3-1) Pac-10 Leader 2006 Boise State Title	.433	8.007	7.137	The embarrassing loss to Boise State seems a distant memory now as the Ducks follow a BCS-buster-busting defeat of Utah with a win over Cal to inherit pole position in the conference – without LeGarrette Blount.
13	Nebraska (3-1)	.622	7.500	7.030	55-0 is 55-0, even against Louisiana-Lafayette. But don’t awaken the echoes of Tom Osborne just yet – you’ll slip for a bye you need to prepare for a showdown with Missouri to determine who’ll challenge Kansas for the Big 12 North.
14	South Florida (4-0)	.880	4.134	3.912	The only FBS team the Bulls had played was newbie Western Kentucky. But beating Florida State shows they’re for real, and they want this year to be similar to 2007 in another way – South Florida in the national conversation.
15	Ohio State (3-1)	.558	4.055	3.666	Shutting out Illinois, even a mediocre Illinois, and not allowing a point since USC a needed feather in the Buckeyes’ cap to justify the top-10 poll ranking. What would really help: Beating Indiana this week.
16	UCLA (3-0)	.732	4.182	3.630	Skipped a week but Tennessee and Kansas State each had big wins, making UCLA look all the better – and scarier, heading into a game at Stanford that’s a tuneup for a huge game with Oregon in the Rose Bowl in two weeks.
17	Clemson (2-2)	.309	4.138	3.482	Losing to TCU at home not the way to represent the ACC. They probably need to beat Maryland to prove themselves deserving of this ranking.
18	Michigan (4-0)	.698	3.785	3.421	Could it be? Are the Wolverines riding the shoulders of Tate Forcier back? They only won by three to Indiana at home and no other opponent so far is in positive B Points, but that’s far better than the team that lost to Appalachian State.
19	Missouri (4-0)	.763	2.744	2.749	Beating winless Nevada isn’t much of an argument that you’re for real, especially with Illinois and Bowling Green losing as well. They better be able to bounce back for Nebraska in two weeks if they want a shot at the Big 12 North.
20	Connecticut (3-1)	.488	2.399	2.293	The fact the win came against a I-AA team limits the benefit the Huskies get from it, and still no one is giving them any respect. They’ll drop for the bye but then get a chance to prove themselves against Pitt in two weeks.
21	USC (3-1)	.534	2.678	2.251	Matt Barkley’s injury really hurts the Trojans in the rankings, not only because of the loss to Washington but the narrowness of the win over Ohio State. Can he return to full strength for a big test against Cal?
22	Arizona (3-1)	.463	2.661	2.236	Off go Arizona State, on go their rivals after a big win over an Oregon State team expected to be among the Pac-10’s Big Four. With their only loss being to red-hot Iowa, could they be a big factor in the Pac-10 as well?
23	Penn State (3-1)	.544	2.280	2.054	Don’t slip much because Arizona State and Indiana losing provided a cushion, Iowa’s a good team, and Syracuse and Temple won. Still, with Ohio State and Michigan zooming onto the Top 25, JoePa might want to kiss the Rose Bowl goodbye.
24	Houston (3-0)	.688	3.879	1.833	Slip because they beat middling Texas Tech by only one at home, but two wins against the Big 12 is two wins against the Big 12, and the Cougars smell BCS Buster this year.
25	Pittsburgh (3-1)	.536	1.805	1.739	Bad sign when you lose to a team that isn’t even positive. It was close and on the road, but their schedule really looks bad now, and the Big East looks that much tougher.

38 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #29 Florida State (was #16), #30 Arizona State (was #23), #32 Indiana (was #24), #33 Mississippi (was #14), #51 Miami (FL) (was #15), #74 California (was #7)

Unbeaten teams not on top 25: #26 Texas A&M*, #28 TCU, #36 Wisconsin

Rest of Watch List: #27 Stanford*, #29 Florida State, #30 Arizona State, #31 South Carolina*, #32 Indiana, #33 Mississippi, #34 Iowa State*, #35 Utah*

Other Positive B Ratings: #37 West Virginia*, #38 Wake Forest*, #39 Hawaii, #40 Duke, #48 SMU* (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #43 Minnesota, #51 Miami (FL), #52 Southern Miss, #56 North Carolina, #57 Washington, #58 Kentucky, #63 Northern Illinois, #71 Colorado State, #74 California, #76 Louisville

Bottom 10: #111 Akron, #112 Memphis, #113 Washington State, #114 Buffalo, #115 Tulane, #116 San Jose State, #117 New Mexico, #118 Western Kentucky, #119 Miami (OH), #120 Rice

Conference Rating: #1 Big 12 (2.795), #2 SEC (1.982), #3 Big East (.811), #4 Big 10 (-.189), #5 ACC (-2.429), #6 Pac-10 (-2.436), #7 MWC (-9.326, leader #28 TCU), #8 WAC (-12.590), #9 C-USA (-16.583), #10 MAC (-18.081, leader #60 Central Michigan), #11 Sun Belt (-19.835, leader #79 Middle Tenn. St.)

Best game of week: UCLA @ Stanford, 12:30pm PT, ABC