College Football

Remember 2004? We had five undefeated teams going into the bowls. Utah became the first BCS buster, but Auburn was the only team people were crying about not making the title game. We’re headed for five undefeated teams again, but boy, have times changed.

For one, people are talking about Boise State not being jilted for a BCS bowl this time, something that has now happened twice. What’s more, a stumble by Texas or the eventual SEC champion could, conceivably, open the door for a Cincinnati or even (whisper) TCU to enter the mix. (Or it could allow a one-loss champion to get in ahead of the other three unbeatens. But despite the fact few are yet willing to vault Texas to number 1, there would be rioting in the streets if that turned out to be the eventual SEC champion.)

A lot of teams further down in the ratings lose, creating upheaval from the 19 spot on down, starting with a booming move onto the Top 25 for the new darlings, Stanford, and continuing with a whopping three teams moving from negative B Points to the top 25, and in what may be a record this late in the year, five teams moving off the top 25, and in quite a few cases, out of positive B Points. And a behind-the-scenes alert: Utah falls so far down that they and BYU are almost neck-in-neck. Maybe within the conference, it’s not so much that BYU’s overrated as Air Force is underrated. We’ll know for sure when the two play each other this week.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking the difference between the team’s B Rating and his conference’s rating, taking a fraction of that equal to the fraction of Division I-A the conference makes up, and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

29 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #27 Miami (FL) (was #20), #31 Arizona (was #24), #32 Utah (was #25), #40 Tennessee (was #23), #46 USC (was #21)

Watch List: #26 Air Force, #27 Miami (FL), #28 Wisconsin, #29 Connecticut

Other Positive B Ratings: #31 Arizona, #32 Utah, #33 BYU*, #36 Houston, #37 Temple*, #39 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #30 West Virginia, #40 Tennessee, #46 USC, #52 Fresno State

Bottom 10: #111 Memphis, #112 Miami (OH), #113 San Jose State, #114 Tulane, #115 New Mexico State, #116 New Mexico, #117 Western Kentucky, #118 Eastern Michigan, #119 Washington State, #120 Rice

Conference Rating: #1 SEC (-2.703), #2 Big East (-3.546), #3 Big 12 (-11.135), #4 Big Ten (-13.244), #5 ACC (-13.560), #6 Pac-10 (-22.596), #7 Mountain West (-30.266), #8 WAC (-38.237), #9 MAC (-44.758, leader #37 Temple), #10 Conference USA (-46.569, leader #36 Houston), #11 Sun Belt (-51.211, leader #58 Troy)

Best game of week: Oklahoma @ Texas Tech, 9:30am PT, FSN

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An intriguing subplot is developing in college football this year, and it’s not SEC Referee-Gate. It’s not even the rise of Cincinnati, which this week looks to be less a result of the Bearcats being underrated as the Crimson Tide being overrated. No, it’s the very real possibility of a non-BCS school in TCU making the title game, in fourth place in the BCS standings and third in the C Ratings.

In a year of one of the largest gaps between the BCS and non-BCS conferences I’ve yet seen, TCU is in such a position that if Texas or the eventual SEC champion loses, you would normally expect them to move into the top two and the unprecedented heights of the BCS Championship Game. In the polls, that’s attributable to the Mountain West’s reputation, earned in years past, but this year BYU in particular is way overrated. It’s also attributable to the fact that the closest games they’ve played, Clemson and Air Force, were both road games. In the C Ratings, you can attribute their success to their games against Virginia and Clemson, both good ACC teams (the latter is finally ranked in the AP and Harris polls this week). Even in the BCS computers the Horned Frogs are just ahead of Texas for third, and the BCS computers don’t include margin of victory, and TCU hasn’t beaten an Oregon like Boise State.

Is TCU really that great? Or are they the beneficiary of a weak year across college football? There’s a growing consensus that Florida and Alabama are being propped up by the SEC officials. Texas has been doing their work quietly, and have been met with skepticism, especially after a lackluster effort against Colorado. Last year at this time TCU’s C Rating of 35.706 would be second behind Florida, but it wouldn’t be a five-point drop to the next team back; four teams had better C Ratings than what Cincinnati has now, and #6 Boise State’s 22.318 rating would be ninth last year.

Whatever happens, it could be an exciting end to the season. I suspect you may start seeing a growing movement to drop Florida and especially Alabama from their current perches, and to exclude them from the BCS Championship Game even if they go undefeated (and I’m a little surprised it hasn’t started already; even in the usually more trustworthy AP poll, Texas has one fewer first-place vote than Alabama). And if the Big Three start losing and TCU and Cincinnati keep winning, it’ll be exciting to watch. Either a team from a conference many see as weak will go into the national championship game, causing riots among the big boys, or a one-loss team will sneak into the national championship game, causing the Mountain West to moan “What do we have to do?!?” and the Big East to start thinking about what the BCS really means to them.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking the difference between the team’s B Rating and his conference’s rating, taking a fraction of that equal to the fraction of Division I-A the conference makes up, and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

29 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #28 West Virginia (was #24)

2006 Boise State Title: #36 Stanford (6-3), .417, .040, -1.425

Watch List: #26 Oregon State*, #27 Fresno State, #28 West Virginia, #29 Connecticut

Other Positive B Ratings: #32 Air Force, #33 Wisconsin*, #35 Houston, #36 Stanford*, #40 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #43 Temple

Bottom 10: #111 Miami (OH), #112 Memphis, #113 San Jose State, #114 New Mexico State, #115 Tulane, #116 New Mexico, #117 Washington State, #118 Eastern Michigan, #119 Western Kentucky, #120 Rice

Best game of week: Iowa @ Ohio State, 12:30pm PT, ABC/ESPN2

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Up to this point, the big story in the C Ratings was that, unusually, no one team was pulling away. The Big Four of Texas, Florida, Alabama, and disrespected Cincinnati kept trading spots. That’s still the case, but now one team has fallen far enough behind the others to fall behind a fifth team, and it’s a doozy – at least considering how much not only the C Ratings, but the whole country, loved them just two weeks – and only one game – ago.

That team is Alabama, and they are solely the victims of a lackluster effort against Tennessee. In some ways it’s unfair for them to drop down, as they had a bye last week – but that bye only dropped them back down to the same number of games the others had. Alabama is now a full eight points behind #3 Cincinnati in the C Rating, a Cincinnati team that is two points behind Florida. If Texas can maintain their current tear, maybe they can be the team that starts pulling away; after leading Florida by only two last week, the satisfying performance the Longhorns had against a good Oklahoma State team gives them a five-point edge this week.

Perhaps, with a good enough performance against an LSU team that can steal the SEC West, Alabama can come roaring back into the Top 4. But perhaps, with the way the Tide have played recently, they’ve set themselves up to fall, and fall hard.

Meanwhile, the team that leapfrogged Alabama may be just as much a story as Alabama’s woes: TCU. The unbeaten Horned Frogs are playing in a year of one of the biggest gaps between the BCS and non-BCS schools since I’ve kept conference ratings and haven’t played Utah, the only other Mountain West team in the Top 25, yet. The unspoken real driving force of TCU’s success, especially in the BCS computers where their ranking is comparable to Cincinnati and Oregon while Boise State languishes further back, isn’t their performance against grossly overrated (yet still good in the A Ratings) BYU or their lackluster performance against Air Force. It’s in their nonconference ACC opposition, especially the way they manhandled Virginia. I’m not ready to pick them for the national title game, but they are a good argument for a playoff. Once again, this week’s rankings do not include games already played.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking the difference between the team’s B Rating and his conference’s rating, taking a fraction of that equal to the fraction of Division I-A the conference makes up, and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

27 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #26 Oklahoma State (was #16), #32 Mississippi (was #25)

Watch List: #26 Oklahoma State, #27 Connecticut

Other Positive B Ratings: #29 Air Force*, #31 Fresno State, #36 Temple, #37 Houston, #39 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #32 Mississippi, #33 Oregon State, #47 South Carolina, #52 Central Michigan

Bottom 10: #111 San Jose State, #112 Memphis, #113 Miami (OH), #114 Washington State, #115 New Mexico State, #116 Eastern Michigan, #117 Tulane, #118 New Mexico, #119 Western Kentucky, #120 Rice

Conference Rating: #1 Big East (-.321), #2 SEC (-2.549), #3 Big 12 (-6.668), #4 ACC (-8.281), #5 Big 10 (-10.772), #6 Pac-10 (-12.770), #7 Mountain West (-25.080), #8 WAC (-29.315), #9 MAC (-36.678, leader #36 Temple), #10 C-USA (-41.840, leader #37 Houston), #11 Sun Belt (-41.850, leader #44 Troy)

Best game of week: Ohio State @ Penn State, 12:30pm PT, ABC/ESPN2

All logos taken from Sportslogos.net, and are the trademarks of their respective schools, used without permission under fair-use clause of United States copyright law. Some logos may be out of date. Use of logos for commercial purposes without consent of the respective schools is prohibited.

This was a wild week for the C Ratings – and this was a week in which in many ways, the C Ratings were justified! Every so often I find myself wondering if the computer on which the calculations are done affect the resulting rankings. Just look at the turnover on the rankings this week – what are TCU and Boise State doing as the next-best teams behind the Big Four, in the year of one of the largest gaps between the BCS and non-BCS conferences I’ve ever seen? What are Pitt and Penn State doing in the Top 10? Did Oklahoma State really just zoom into the Top 20 after weeks of waiting on the outside of the Top 25 looking in? Tennessee at #29 despite being in negative B Points? Blame some of the surprising results we had in college football this week – especially Alabama needing a last-second blocked field goal to beat Tennessee, causing a flip-flop with Texas to put the Longhorns back into the top spot of the C Ratings. This week’s C Ratings do not include games already played.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking the difference between the team’s B Rating and his conference’s rating, taking a fraction of that equal to the fraction of Division I-A the conference makes up, and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

28 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #26 Connecticut (was #22), #31 Kansas (was #18), #37 Virginia (was #21)

Watch List: #26 Connecticut, #27 Miami (FL), #28 South Carolina

Other Positive B Ratings: #30 Fresno State, #32 Oregon State, #34 Central Michigan*, #40 Northern Illinois, #41 Houston*, #43 Temple* (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #29 Tennessee, #31 Kansas, #37 Virginia, #38 Florida State, #42 Michigan, #46 South Florida, #47 Arkansas, #53 Arizona State

Bottom 10: #111 UAB, #112 Illinois, #113 Eastern Michigan, #114 New Mexico State, #115 Washington State, #116 Miami (OH), #117 Tulane, #118 New Mexico, #119 Western Kentucky, #120 Rice

Conference Rating: #1 Big East (-.460), #2 SEC (-1.175), #3 Big 12 (-4.399), #4 ACC (-8.368), #5 Big 10 (-8.684), #6 Pac-10 (-10.537), #7 Mountain West (-23.363), #8 WAC (-25.415), #9 MAC (-31.941), #10 Conference USA (-37.528), #11 Sun Belt (-39.691)

Best game of week: Texas @ Oklahoma State, 5pm PT, ABC or ESPN2

All logos taken from Sportslogos.net, and are the trademarks of their respective schools, used without permission under fair-use clause of United States copyright law. Some logos may be out of date. Use of logos for commercial purposes without consent of the respective schools is prohibited.

In the Battle of Techs, G is better than V, and no one knows how good T might really be.

There were five games this week between teams in the Top 25, but the identity of two of those games depended on which rankings you were using. Texas Tech (playing Nebraska) and Arkansas (playing Florida) were ranked in the C Ratings but not in the polls. Arkansas proved they belonged in the C Ratings by keeping it close against the Fighting Tebows, but they weren’t going to move into the polls with anything less than a win. On the other hand, Texas Tech, a team even I was skeptical about, thundered into the polls with a stunning upset of Nebraska that really could change the Big 12 North calculus.

In the polls, South Carolina and Georgia Tech were ranked when their body of work maybe didn’t quite justify it. The Fighting Spurriers didn’t even give an Arkansas-like effort against Alabama (yet inexplicably remain ranked in the polls and are back in positive B Points), but G-Tech stunned V-Tech and make their way into the Top 25 of the C Ratings. The ACC’s national title hopes may be dashed, but if the two Techs can maintain their effort for the remainder of the season, perhaps they’ll finally get some credit for their parity.

And at the top? In this, the first week of the BCS standings, V-Tech’s loss firmly creates a Big Four in the C Ratings, but that’s one more than people are normally giving credit for. Texas tumbles from the top spot – and behind Cincinnati – after letting an Oklahoma team that’s now Bradford-less for good get within three, letting the SEC’s Big Two take the top two spots… but just like in the AP poll, Alabama leapfrogs Florida to take the top spot between them. Florida’s history of letting too many teams get too close for comfort finally caught up with them this week.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking the difference between the team’s B Rating and his conference’s rating, taking a fraction of that equal to the fraction of Division I-A the conference makes up, and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

35 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #28 Michigan (was #22), #29 South Florida (was #17), #30 Notre Dame (was #21), #31 Arkansas (was #20)

Watch List: #26 Mississippi, #27 Oklahoma State*, #28 Michigan, #29 South Florida, #30 Notre Dame, #31 Arkansas, #32 Miami (FL)*, #33 Oregon State, #34 Tennessee*, #35 South Carolina*

Other Positive B Ratings: #36 Arizona State*, #37 Florida State, #40 Fresno State, #43 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #41 Auburn, #46 Stanford, #52 Duke, #77 Wake Forest

Bottom 10: #111 San Jose State, #112 Memphis, #113 Tulane, #114 New Mexico State, #115 Washington State, #116 Eastern Michigan, #117 Western Kentucky, #118 Miami (OH), #119 New Mexico, #120 Rice

Conference Rating: #1 SEC (-.502), #2 Big East (-.566), #3 Big 12 (-2.958), #4 ACC (-7.263), #5 Big 10 (-7.379), #6 Pac-10 (-7.429), #7 Mountain West (-20.819), #8 WAC (-22.130), #9 Sun Belt (-29.910, leader #63 Troy), #10 MAC (-30.122, leader #43 Northern Illinois), #11 C-USA (-31.702, leader #47 Houston)

Best game of week: Oklahoma @ Kansas, 12:30pm PT, ABC

All logos taken from Sportslogos.net, and are the trademarks of their respective schools, used without permission under fair-use clause of United States copyright law. Some logos may be out of date. Use of logos for commercial purposes without consent of the respective schools is prohibited.