Sports – Page 30 – MorganWick.com

The Hunt for Your Favorite Team’s Games

December 27, 2015December 4, 2014 by Morgan Wick

If you were a fan of the Oregon Ducks, the #2 team in the country, and you wanted to catch all your team’s games, you would have had to watch them on all of these channels:

South Dakota: Pac-12 Networks
Michigan State: Fox
Wyoming: Pac-12 Networks
@Washington State: ESPN
Arizona: ESPN
@UCLA: Fox
Washington: Fox Sports 1
California (from Levi’s Stadium): Fox Sports 1
Stanford: Fox
@Utah: ESPN
Colorado: Pac-12 Networks
@Oregon State: ABC
Arizona (Pac-12 Championship from Levi’s Stadium): Fox

If you were a fan of the USC Trojans, you would have spent time on all of these channels:

Fresno State: Fox
@Stanford: ABC
@Boston College: ESPN
Oregon State: ESPN
Arizona State: Fox
@Arizona: ESPN2
Colorado: Pac-12 Networks
@Utah: Fox Sports 1
@Washington State: Pac-12 Networks
California: ESPN
@UCLA: ABC
Notre Dame: Fox

If you were a fan of the #3 TCU Horned Frogs, you would have been watching these channels:

Samford: Fox Sports Southwest (or if not them, SportSouth, a handful of Plus feeds, or FCS Central)
Minnesota: Fox Sports 1
@SMU: CBS Sports Network
Oklahoma: Fox
@Baylor: ABC (or ESPN2)
Oklahoma State: Fox Sports 1
Texas Tech: Fox
@West Virginia: ABC (or ESPN2)
Kansas State: Fox
@Kansas: Fox Sports 1
@Texas: Fox Sports 1
Iowa State: ABC

If you were a fan of the Texas Longhorns, you would have been watching these channels:

North Texas: Longhorn Network
BYU: Fox Sports 1
UCLA (from JerryWorld): Fox
@Kansas: Fox Sports 1
Baylor: ABC (or ESPN3)
Oklahoma (from Fair Park): ABC
Iowa State: Longhorn Network
@Kansas State: ESPN
@Texas Tech: Fox Sports 1
West Virginia: Fox Sports 1
@Oklahoma State: Fox
TCU: Fox Sports 1

This isn’t limited to the Pac-12 and Big 12, two conferences whose rights are split between two different companies. The best teams tend to be plastered all over their conferences’ biggest channels, but if you were a fan of the Florida Gators, you would have been watching these channels:

Idaho: ESPNU
Eastern Michigan: SEC Network
Kentucky: SEC Network
@Alabama: CBS
@Tennessee: SEC Network
LSU: SEC Network
Missouri: ESPN2
Georgia (from Jacksonville): CBS
@Vanderbilt: SEC Network
South Carolina: SEC Network
Eastern Kentucky: SEC Network alternate feed
@Florida State: ESPN

If you were a fan of the Wisconsin Badgers you would have been watching these channels:

LSU (from Houston): ESPN
Western Illinois: BTN
Bowling Green: ESPN2
South Florida: ESPNU
@Northwestern: ESPN2
Illinois: ESPN2
Maryland: BTN
@Rutgers: ESPN
@Purdue: ESPNU
Nebraska: ABC
@Iowa: ABC (or ESPN2)
Minnesota: BTN
Ohio State (Big Ten Championship from Indianapolis): Fox

And if you were a fan of the Miami Hurricanes you would have been watching these channels:

@Louisville: ESPN
Florida A&M: ESPN3
Arkansas State: ESPNU
@Nebraska: ESPN2
Duke: ESPN2
@Georgia Tech: ESPN2
Cincinnati: Fox Sports Florida (or if not them, one of a handful of other RSNs or ESPN3)
@Virginia Tech: ESPN
North Carolina: ACC Network (CBS4 in Miami (incidentially pre-empting Air Force-Army and potentially encroaching on Georgia-Florida), ESPN3 if no station in your area)
Florida State: ABC
@Virginia: ESPN2
Pittsburgh: ESPN2

Every one of these schools has their games spread across at least five different networks. As mentioned, the better teams in the conferences with fewer partners have it better; Oregon and TCU had exactly five networks each (as would have #1 Alabama had I included them), #4 Florida State had all but one of their games on ABC or ESPN, and #5 Ohio State had ten straight games on either ABC or BTN, but if you’re not one of those top teams following your team is an exercise in hunting down what network has your team’s game this week. And I haven’t included any teams outside the power 5 because you’re less likely to be following them on TV, but rest assured it isn’t because they don’t have to go through this; if anything they may have it worse. To follow all of Boise State’s games, you would have had to watch ESPN, ESPN2, ABC (or ESPN2), CBS Sports Network, ESPNU, and for the Mountain West Championship, CBS. Lesser Mountain West teams would likely have needed to find where their game was streaming on the “Mountain West Network” at least once; Conference USA teams, including Marshall, had to hopscotch between Fox Sports 1, CBS Sports Network, FSN, Fox College Sports, and whatever station was airing the American Sports Network game(s), with ESPN swooping in for the conference championship game, all just for conference games; the MAC and Sun Belt faced the prospect of watching most of their games on ESPN3; and all the Group of Five conferences except Conference USA faced the prospect of at least some games on ESPN3 or ESPNEWS.

I mentioned last week that the oversaturation of the cable network market is made apparent when cable networks play format musical chairs in a desperate attempt to attract an audience, but don’t think the relative health and lavishing of attention and money on the sports network market doesn’t mean it’s not immune to this problem. There is ultimately a very short list of sports and sports events that will attract substantial audiences to a network. College sports is much more decentralized than professional sports, allowing all the general-purpose sports networks (except NBCSN) to make a serious effort to grab a piece of the rights to whatever college conferences are popular enough to draw audiences. Whatever conferences’ rights they can’t get, they lure their most popular schools to play road games against schools in conferences whose rights they do have. That may be good for the chances of getting strong nonconference games (ESPN’s dominion over college football has resulted in them arranging attractive non-conference matchups for the purpose of their own ratings, but power-conference teams have also taken road trips to C-USA schools they wouldn’t otherwise visit so FS1 can have them, or to schools in conferences CBS Sports Network has the rights to), but it means fans often find themselves jumping from network to network to find the one that has their school’s game this week, lured to networks desperate for their eyeballs – before we even get to conference-owned networks or, in the case of the ACC, Big 12, and non-power five schools, the multiple platforms for games that would otherwise air on a conference network.

The relative centralization of pro sports, where each league rarely has more than one or two rights partners, means this is less of a problem there, but that’s not to say it doesn’t exist. The situation in the NFL, with two networks airing most of the games of each of the two conferences with some of them getting siphoned off to NBC, ESPN, and CBS/NFLN, is fairly simple, just in terms of why certain games are on certain networks based on their time slots, and in the other major sports most of your team’s games will air on their respective regional sports network, with a few occasions when you have to switch to the national partner, which is an event marking you as a good team and can be fairly easily predicted by what day it falls on. (The NHL has NBC and NBCSN; the NBA has ABC, ESPN and TNT. MLB is the least simple; it’s okay in the regular season with Fox, ESPN and Fox Sports 1, but then TBS and MLBN join in during the postseason under a scheme that doesn’t quite make sense because of baseball bungling their last contract negotiations.) In college football, only the worst, least-attractive teams can count on appearing on the conference network or other regional partner on a regular basis; for the others, not being on national television is the exception and not the rule, and unlike with the NFL, that means switching between several different partners seemingly at random with no correlation with time slot (as if it wasn’t bad enough the time slots themselves are only being determined two weeks in advance), for reasons that only make sense if you pay close attention to how the meat of the college football schedule is made, and doesn’t always make sense even then.

Could this problem get worse in the future? It depends, for example on whether or not the cable bubble starts to burst or how future contract negotiations play out with FS1, NBCSN, or CBS Sports Network becoming bigger players, or whether or not entities recognize the potential for confusion from switching back and forth between networks. But with the Big Ten set to rack in a big payday from being the last big contract up for bid for several years, I hope their fans know what they’re getting into. If ESPN and Fox share the rights, as I expect and sort of hope, this is what you have to look forward to.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 13

December 2, 2014 by Morgan Wick

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that even with the bit about the early flexes, this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

Begins Sunday of Week 5
In effect during Weeks 5-17
Up to 2 games may be flexed into Sunday Night between Weeks 5-10
Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
NFL schedules all games.
Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks starting Week 11, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5. As I understand it, during the Week 5-10 period the NFL and NBC declare their intention to flex out a game two weeks in advance, at which point CBS and Fox pick one game each to protect.
In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; ten teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Packers, Bears, 49ers, Steelers, and Saints don’t have games in the main flex period, and all have games in the early flex period. I don’t know if both of the games scheduled for 12/20 count towards the total, or only the one in primetime. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

Selected game: New England @ Indianapolis.

Week 12 (November 23):

Selected game: Dallas @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (November 30):

Selected game: Denver @ Kansas City.

Week 14 (December 7):

Selected game: New England @ San Diego.

Week 15 (December 14):

Selected game: Dallas @ Philadelphia.

Week 16 (December 21):

Tentative game: Seattle @ Arizona
Prospects: At one point this game looked like it was going to be lopsided, but now at 8-4 v. 9-3, the winner of this game looks to have pole position in the NFC West.
Protected games: Colts-Cowboys (CBS) and Lions-Bears (FOX).
Other possible games: Chiefs-Steelers is the only game involving two teams over .500, with Ravens-Texans lurking about.
Analysis: Chiefs-Steelers is 7-5 v. 7-5, Ravens-Texans 7-5 v. 6-6. The best either can hope for is parity with the lesser of the two teams in the tentative. Even if the game becomes lopsided again, you have to imagine the tentative game bias will carry the day. Barring something completely unexpected that will give away another of the NFL’s arcane/unwritten rules, we will have an entire season of no flexes until Week 17.
Final prediction: Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (no change).

Week 17 (December 28):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS
SOUTH 48-4	58-4	7-5
6-6	58-4	6-6
NORTH 38-3-1	67-5
3 tied at 7-5	67-5
WEST 29-3	7-5
8-4	7-5
EAST 19-3	7-5
2 teams at 7-5	7-5

NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE NFC SOUTH WINGS
SOUTH 45-7	58-4	3-8-1
5-7	58-4
EAST 39-3	68-4
8-4	68-4
NORTH 29-3	8-4
8-4	7-5
WEST 19-3
8-4

Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
Possible games: Panthers-Falcons, Browns-Ravens, Lions-Packers, Chargers-Chiefs, Bills-Patriots, Bengals-Steelers, Cardinals-49ers.

Sports Ratings Report for Week of November 10-16 and Weekend Sports Ratings for November 22-23

December 1, 2014 by Morgan Wick

Primetime – Nov 10-16
Vwrs (000)	Change
Vwrs (000)	Lst Wk	Lst Yr
#1	=	=
3048	-0%	-12%
#2	=	=
1183	-6%	+23%
#3	=	=
836	+113%	-5%
#4	=	=
213	-11%	-26%
#5	=	+1
176	-11%	+100%
#6	=	-1
153	+47%	0%
#7	+1	=
88	+13%	+6%
#8	-1	+1
72	-15%	+6%
#9	=	-1
58	-17%	-24%
#10	=	=
49	+40%	+36%

Total Day – Nov 10-16
Vwrs (000)	Change
Vwrs (000)	Lst Wk	Lst Yr
#1	=	=
1226	-4%	-11%
#2	+1	=
370	+25%	-6%
#3	-1	=
313	-3%	+18%
#4	=	=
161	-10%	-17%
#5	=	=
94	-45%	-17%
#6	=	+3
84	-2%	+53%
#7	=	-1
71	0%	0%
#8	+1	-1
59	+18%	-5%
#9	-1	-1
52	-15%	-15%
#10	=	=
32	+52%	+45%

This post is a week late because TV Media Insights didn’t have its numbers for last Sunday until today, and TVbytheNumbers never put up Saturday numbers at all, which is okay because TVMI included several college football games from the afternoon. If I had numbers from Sports Media Watch for daytime broadcast games, I’d roll this post into this week. I did incorporate household ratings (and in one case, all the numbers) for cable college football games from the weekly Awful Announcing posts. Numbers for ABC and Fox primetime college football games from the weekend I’m only certain of to the ten thousands place, as TV Media Insights listed all shows on the Big Four networks Saturday with a multiple of ten thousand viewers.

NFL Network seems to be seeing some lasting impact from CBS’ coverage of Thursday Night Football. Both of the NFLN-exclusive games we’ve seen so far improved on the same week last year and Chiefs-Raiders did not, so take this with a grain of salt, but NFLN has seen year-on-year gains in primetime of at least 23% and total day of 18% each of the past two weeks.

Finally, I went with a Top 25 for this week’s month-old ratings in part because I wasn’t quite sure what parts of HBO’s boxing card to include. UniMas actually attracted more viewers than ESPN for the USA-Honduras friendly, surprising for a match involving the US but not Mexico.

Click here to learn more about how to read the charts.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 12

November 24, 2014 by Morgan Wick

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Begins Sunday of Week 5
In effect during Weeks 5-17
Up to 2 games may be flexed into Sunday Night between Weeks 5-10
Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
NFL schedules all games.
Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks starting Week 11, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5. As I understand it, during the Week 5-10 period the NFL and NBC declare their intention to flex out a game two weeks in advance, at which point CBS and Fox pick one game each to protect.
In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; ten teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Packers, Bears, 49ers, Steelers, and Saints don’t have games in the main flex period, and all have games in the early flex period. I don’t know if both of the games scheduled for 12/20 count towards the total, or only the one in primetime. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

Selected game: New England @ Indianapolis.

Week 12 (November 23):

Selected game: Dallas @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (November 30):

Selected game: Denver @ Kansas City.

Week 14 (December 7):

Selected game: New England @ San Diego.

Week 15 (December 14):

Tentative game: Dallas @ Philadelphia
Final prediction (made last week): Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (no change).

Week 16 (December 21):

Tentative game: Seattle @ Arizona
Prospects: 7-4 v. 9-2 is less lopsided than before, but even if Arizona had won that game, what do you flex it out for?
Protected games: Colts-Cowboys (CBS) and Lions-Bears (FOX).
Other possible games: Chiefs-Steelers at 7-4 v. 7-4 is the only game involving two teams over .500. That’s not overcoming the tentative game bias.

Week 17 (December 28):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS
SOUTH 47-4	57-4	6-5
5-6	57-4	6-5
NORTH 37-3-1	67-4	5-6
3 tied at 7-4	67-4
WEST 28-3	7-4
2 tied at 7-4	7-4
EAST 19-2	7-4
2 teams at 6-5

NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-6)
SOUTH 44-7	58-3
4-7	58-3
EAST 38-3	67-4
8-3	67-4
NORTH 28-3	7-4
7-4	7-4
WEST 19-2
2 tied at 7-4

Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
Possible games: Panthers-Falcons, Browns-Ravens, Lions-Packers, Chargers-Chiefs, Bills-Patriots, Bengals-Steelers, Cardinals-49ers.

2014 College Basketball Postseason Ratings Roundup

November 22, 2014 by Morgan Wick

This post is going to be a little more useful than last week’s. Here are ratings for all 67 games of the NCAA Tournament, every game of the NIT on traditional television, and every game or coverage window of the women’s tournament. The top four games of the tournament all involved Kentucky; their Elite 8 and third round games both did better than the other Final Four game, though curiously the much-hyped matchup between Kentucky and Louisville not only did worse than all those games, but another third-round game involving North Carolina. Kentucky was also involved in the most-watched second-round game. Only two NCAA Tournament games not on truTV did worse than the most watched NIT game, the championship game. Meanwhile, the top seven women’s games involved at least one of the two undefeated teams, Connecticut or Notre Dame.

CBS numbers from Sports Media Watch, Turner and ESPN numbers from Son of the Bronx. 18-49 numbers, when available, from TVbytheNumbers and The Futon Critic. Click here to learn more about how to read the charts.

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Sports Ratings Highlights for Week of November 3-9 and Weekend Sports Ratings for November 15-16

November 19, 2014 by Morgan Wick

Primetime
Vwrs (000)	Change
Vwrs (000)	Lst Wk	Lst Yr
#1	=	=
3049	-40%	-14%
#2	=	=
1261	+24%	+33%
#3	=	+1
392	-34%	-30%
#4	=	-1
239	-16%	-62%
#5	=	=
197	+79%	+16%
#6	+1	=
104	+28%	-3%
#7	-1	+2
85	-11%	+8%
#8	+1	=
78	+32%	-18%
#9	-1	-2
70	+17%	-33%
#10	=	=
35	0%	+30%

Total Day
Vwrs (000)	Change
Vwrs (000)	Lst Wk	Lst Yr
#1	=	=
1280	-25%	-11%
#2	+1	+1
323	+12%	+18%
#3	-1	-1
297	-10%	-12%
#4	+1	+1
178	+58%	+20%
#5	-1	-1
171	+41%	+8%
#6	+1	=
86	+30%	+18%
#7	-1	=
71	-7%	0%
#8	+1	-1
61	+11%	-14%
#9	-1	=
50	-14%	-22%
#10	=	=
21	-32%	0%

I don’t know if I’m going to extend the most-viewed sports events list that incorporates SportsBusiness Daily information to a full top 50 like I did this week. I was doing top 10s before, and honestly I strongly suspect I’m missing Spanish-language numbers for another Mexico friendly, but I wanted to stretch my legs this week with SBD reporting a full bank of information. I may still try to incorporate everything with over a million viewers, and a few things with less, in future weeks when SBD cooperates, but things will be very much played by ear. A lot depends on what I feel I can do in the future without running afoul of the powers that be, as I’d like to be able not to have to wait for the paywall at some point in the future.

The late NFL doubleheader didn’t have very much overrun into primetime and ended up not being reported by TV Media Insights, so I only know the viewership figures reported by TVbytheNumbers to the ten thousands place and they may not be entirely accurate. Also, some information about the live Bellator card I needed to find a Spike press release for in order to have numbers for the full card.

Oh, and of course the titles I added to the charts on the sides mean I have even more space I need to fill in this area…

Click here to learn more about how to read the charts.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 11

November 18, 2014 by Morgan Wick

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Begins Sunday of Week 5
In effect during Weeks 5-17
Up to 2 games may be flexed into Sunday Night between Weeks 5-10
Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
NFL schedules all games.
Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks starting Week 11, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5. As I understand it, during the Week 5-10 period the NFL and NBC declare their intention to flex out a game two weeks in advance, at which point CBS and Fox pick one game each to protect.
In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; ten teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Packers, Bears, 49ers, Steelers, and Saints don’t have games in the main flex period, and all have games in the early flex period. I don’t know if both of the games scheduled for 12/20 count towards the total, or only the one in primetime. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

Selected game: New England @ Indianapolis.

Week 12 (November 23):

Selected game: Dallas @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (November 30):

Selected game: Denver @ Kansas City.

Week 14 (December 7):

Tentative game: New England @ San Diego
Prospects: 8-2 v. 6-4. A teensy bit lopsided, but still a very good game.
Protected games: Steelers-Bengals (CBS) and Seahawks-Eagles (FOX).
Other possible games: Colts-Browns, Ravens-Dolphins, and Chiefs-Cardinals are all options, with Bills-Broncos fading, but none of those are particularly appealing.
Analysis: With the other two games being matchups of 6-4 teams, Chiefs-Cardinals definitely has an edge over its competition at 7-3 v. 9-1, which actually makes it a game better than the tentative. But if it’s standing at 8-3 v. 10-1, and Patriots-Chargers is at 8-3 v. 6-5, which is the best-case scenario for a flex, I’m not sure that’s overcoming the tentative game bias, especially when Tom Brady is involved. Worth noting that Fox has the doubleheader this week, so it would take a crossflex for Chiefs-Cardinals to reach a larger audience if it doesn’t get flexed in, and the protected game is plenty good enough for them anyway; of course, Patriots-Chargers is a CBS game too. If a team like the Patriots weren’t involved I might hold off for a week, but as it is?
Final prediction: New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers (no change).

Week 15 (December 14):

Tentative game: Dallas @ Philadelphia
Prospects: 7-3 v. 7-3 with the division lead in the NFC East potentially at stake.
Protected games: Broncos-Chargers (CBS) and 49ers-Seahawks (FOX).
Other possible games: Bengals-Browns and Dolphins-Patriots are options, with Packers-Bills and Texans-Colts dark horses, but time may have run out for them if they ever really had a chance. Dolphins-Patriots is the best of the bunch at 6-4 v. 8-2; if it gets to be 8-4 v. 10-2, and Cowboys-Eagles starts getting lopsided at 9-3 v. 7-5 either way, that’s really only a game better than the tentative with the same gap in records, which isn’t going to overcome the tentative game bias. again especially when the Cowboys are involved. These two teams are guaranteed to have the top two records in the division when the decision is made, making lopsidedness the only possible point against it and this prediction officially a mortal lock.
Final prediction: Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (no change).

Week 16 (December 21):

Tentative game: Seattle @ Arizona
Prospects: 6-4 v. 9-1 is getting worryingly lopsided, and the 49ers have tied the Seahawks for second in the division, but what do you flex it out for?
Protected games: Colts-Cowboys (CBS) and Lions-Bears (FOX).
Other possible games: Chiefs-Steelers at 7-3 v. 7-4 is the only game involving two teams over .500, with Ravens-Texans a dark horse. That’s not overcoming the tentative game bias.

Week 17 (December 28):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-5)
SOUTH 46-4	57-3
5-5	57-3
NORTH 36-3-1	67-4
7-4	67-4
WEST 27-3	6-4
7-3	6-4
EAST 18-2	6-4
6-4	6-4

NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-5)
SOUTH 44-6	57-3
4-6	57-3
EAST 37-3	67-3
7-3	67-3
NORTH 27-3	6-4
7-3	6-4
WEST 18-1
2 tied at 6-4

Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
Possible games: Panthers-Falcons, Browns-Ravens, Lions-Packers, Chargers-Chiefs, Bills-Patriots, Bengals-Steelers, Cardinals-49ers.

2013-14 College Basketball Ratings Roundup

November 14, 2014 by Morgan Wick

In honor of the start of the college basketball season, here are last year’s college basketball ratings!

Getting nailed on the Olympics is one thing, getting nailed on college basketball is quite another. SportsBusiness Daily had two different weeks where they didn’t get any CBS numbers in time for their deadline, and Sports Media Watch didn’t get numbers for the total of four college basketball windows that were affected by that for its own college basketball ratings roundup. The highest of the four games’ overnights I estimated would have finished with around a 1.7 final household rating, which is high enough that I’m only listing the top ten regular-season college basketball ratings of the year. I am listing all 109 women’s college basketball games to air on a national Nielsen-rated network, though, although the one CBS game didn’t have viewers reported so I have to guesstimate it. (That chart is going to be in a very unfinished state.)

The most-watched game not involving Duke, Michigan State or Kentucky was San Diego State-Kansas on CBS January 5 with 2.623 million viewers, also the most watched game not involving a power conference team (assuming you count the American as a power conference – Louisville-Kentucky drew 3.246 million viewers to CBS December 28). Note that that game had an NFL playoff game as a lead-in and spilled into primetime. The next such games were Michigan-Ohio State in a Big Ten semifinal, which drew 2.471 million viewers to CBS March 15, and Syracuse-Virginia, which drew 2.45 million viewers to ESPN March 1. The most watched game on ESPN not to involve Duke, either Michigan team, Kentucky, or Syracuse was Kansas-Texas February 1, which drew 1.924 million viewers. The most-watched non-CBS game I don’t have 18-49 numbers for is Kansas State-Kansas January 11, which drew 1.39 million viewers to ESPN.

The most-watched game to involve solely non-power-conference teams was the Mountain West Championship which drew 1.909 million viewers to CBS March 15. The most-watched game involving a non-power-conference team on ESPN was Boise State-Kentucky on December 10, which drew 1.213 million viewers; the most-watched non-power-conference-only game on ESPN was the WCC Championship March 11, with 1.045 million viewers. The most-watched game between two non-power-conference teams that wasn’t a conference championship was VCU-Saint Louis on ESPN February 15, which drew just 711,000 viewers. (If the American counts as a non-power conference, Connecticut-Louisville drew 1.772 million viewers to CBS on March 8, the American championship between those two schools drew 1.688 million viewers to ESPN March 15, and the game at Connecticut drew 1.522 million viewers to ESPN January 18. If the Big East counts as a non-power conference, Villanova-Syracuse drew 1.448 million viewers to CBS December 28, and Butler-Georgetown drew 1.083 million viewers to CBS February 8.)

The most watched game not on ESPN, CBS, or ABC was Ohio State-Notre Dame on ESPN2 December 21, which drew 1.323 million viewers and only barely made the top 100 overall. The most watched game not on ESPN, CBS, ABC, or ESPN2 was Ohio State-Marquette on Fox November 16 with 799,000 viewers, followed by the Big East Championship on Fox Sports 1 March 15 with 702,000 viewers. ESPNU’s most-watched game was Clemson-Syracuse February 9 with 675,000 viewers, which was edged out by the Pac-12 Championship on Fox Sports 1 March 15 with 680,000 viewers. Its next-most-watched game was Belmont-Kentucky December 21 with 577,000 viewers.

Top Ten Most-Watched Regular Season College Basketball Games of the 2013-14 Season

		Vwr (mil)	HH	18-49	Time	Net
1	MCBB: Duke @ Syracuse	4.745	2.9	1.6	2/1 6:30 PM	ESPN
2	Big Ten Championship: Michigan State v. Michigan	4.525	2.7		3/16 3:30 PM	CBS
3	MCBB: Syracuse @ Duke	4.159	2.4	1.3	2/22 7:00 PM	ESPN
4	MCBB: Michigan State v. Kentucky	4.002	2.6	1.4	11/12 7:30 PM	ESPN
5	MCBB: North Carolina @ Duke	3.498	2.1	1.2	3/8 9:00 PM	ESPN
6	MCBB: Louisville @ Kentucky	3.246	2.0		12/28 4:23 PM	CBS
7	ACC Championship: Virginia v. Duke	3.168	2.2	1.0	3/16 1:00 PM	ESPN
8	Big Ten Semifinal: Michigan State v. Wisconsin	3.161	1.9		3/15 4:15 PM	CBS
9	SEC Championship: Florida v. Kentucky	2.99	2.0	0.9	3/16 3:15 PM	ESPN
10	MCBB: Kansas v. Duke	2.977	2.1	1.3	11/12 10:19 PM	ESPN

Read more

Sports Ratings Report for October 27-November 2 and Weekend Sports Ratings for November 8-9

November 12, 2014 by Morgan Wick

Vwrs (000)	Change
Vwrs (000)	Lst Wk	Lst Yr
#1	=	=
5062	+65%	+113%
#2	+1	=
1014	+81%	+7%
#3	-1	=
595	-2%	-1%
#4	=	=
283	+17%	+20%
#5	+1	=
110	+24%	-39%
#6	+1	+2
95	+32%	+3%
#7	-2	-1
81	-49%	-21%
#8	=	-1
60	+9%	-39%
#9	=	=
59	+11%	-8%
#10	=	=
35	+84%	+17%

Vwrs (000)	Change
Vwrs (000)	Lst Wk	Lst Yr
#1	=	=
1710	+42%	+45%
#2	=	=
331	+3%	+2%
#3	=	=
289	+38%	+2%
#4	=	+2
121	-16%	+44%
#5	=	-1
113	-17%	-34%
#6	=	+2
76	-12%	+3%
#7	+1	=
66	+29%	-13%
#8	+1	+1
58	+21%	-11%
#9	-2	-4
55	+4%	-38%
#10	=	=
31	0%	0%

All right, so I’m trying out a new split-chart system. The table on the left has the primetime numbers, the table on the right the total day numbers. I hope there aren’t people with screen resolutions small enough that the tables run into each other (or for that matter, that they wouldn’t run into each other if I had an app pinned to the side on my Surface that doesn’t work), and as is I may have to start writing longer analyses to fill the height of the table in order to avoid wonkiness on the main blog page and big gaps on the post itself.

The year-by-year comparisons suggest that the MLB Postseason is resulting in some continuing lift for Fox Sports 1. (We’ll see what happens in a week without the World Series on Fox luring people to the channel, but the Series resulted in very little lift to FSL’s postgame shows. On the other hand, FSL seems to have seen very little continuing aftereffect from the postseason in general, suggesting its current format is not clicking with audiences any more than it was a year ago.) It’s disappointing that a big Baylor-Oklahoma game couldn’t beat a substantially less-big SEC game on ESPN this past weekend, but FS1 should take some heart that it did as well as it did, topping two million viewers in a noon time slot and beating all but one nationally televised game in the time slot.

This week, with-locals numbers for MNF and TNF; next week, the return of the charts with numbers from SportsBusiness Daily!

Click here to learn more about how to read the charts.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 10

November 11, 2014 by Morgan Wick

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Begins Sunday of Week 5
In effect during Weeks 5-17
Up to 2 games may be flexed into Sunday Night between Weeks 5-10
Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
NFL schedules all games.
Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks starting Week 11, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5. As I understand it, during the Week 5-10 period the NFL and NBC declare their intention to flex out a game two weeks in advance, at which point CBS and Fox pick one game each to protect.
In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; ten teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Packers, Bears, 49ers, Steelers, and Saints don’t have games in the main flex period, and all have games in the early flex period. I don’t know if both of the games scheduled for 12/20 count towards the total, or only the one in primetime. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

Selected game: New England @ Indianapolis.

Week 12 (November 23):

Selected game: Dallas @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (November 30):

Tentative game: Denver @ Kansas City
Prospects: 7-2 v. 6-3. Suddenly looking like a much more interesting game than it was looking like for much of the season, now pitting the top two teams in the division a game apart.
Protected games: Patriots-Packers (CBS) and Saints-Steelers (FOX).
Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games, especially with Eagles-Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Chargers-Ravens and Browns-Bills are the only options, and neither one is all that impressive.
Analysis: The best either of these games could do is even with the tentative. Combine the tentative game bias with the playoff implications and name teams of the tentative compared to the uninspiring alternatives, and…
Final prediction: Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (no change).

Week 14 (December 7):

Tentative game: New England @ San Diego
Prospects: 7-2 v. 5-4. Starting to look a mite lopsided, but should still be reasonably safe for now.
Protected games: Steelers-Bengals (CBS) and Seahawks-Eagles (FOX).
Other possible games: Colts-Browns, Ravens-Dolphins, Chiefs-Cardinals, and Bills-Broncos are all options, but none of those are particularly appealing. Chiefs-Cardinals might be the most interesting, if not necessarily best, game.

Week 15 (December 14):

Tentative game: Dallas @ Philadelphia
Prospects: 7-3 v. 7-2 and an NFC East showdown. If form holds, this game has a mortal lock on this spot.
Protected games: Broncos-Chargers (CBS) and 49ers-Seahawks (FOX).
Other possible games: Packers-Bills, Bengals-Browns, and Dolphins-Patriots are all options, but they would require an absolute collapse by one or both tentative teams and that still might not be enough (as many Cowboys games past have shown).

Week 16 (December 21):

Tentative game: Seattle @ Arizona
Prospects: 6-3 v. 8-1 is a bit lopsided, but it’s still the top two teams in the division, and what do you flex it out for?
Protected games: Colts-Cowboys (CBS) and Lions-Bears (FOX).
Other possible games: Chiefs-Steelers is the only game involving two teams over .500. That’s not overcoming the tentative game bias.

Week 17 (December 28):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-5)
NORTH 46-3	56-3
5-3-1	56-3
SOUTH 36-3	65-3-1
4-5	65-3-1
WEST 27-2	5-4
6-3	5-4
EAST 17-2	5-4
2 tied at 5-4

NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-5)
SOUTH 44-5	57-3
3-6-1	57-3
EAST 37-2	66-3
7-3	66-3
NORTH 27-2	6-3
6-3	5-4
WEST 18-1	6-6
6-3

Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
Possible games: Panthers-Falcons, Browns-Ravens, Lions-Packers, Chargers-Chiefs, Bills-Patriots, Bengals-Steelers, Cardinals-49ers.