Sports

FF50 Challenge Power Rankings – Week 8

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Despite losing MJD, the Shark team finally picked up a second win this week… and naturally is still in the basement. But hey, at least that means the remaining one-win teams can finally be abandoned, especially since I managed to get all the lineups right except where Thursday Night was concerned, right? What’s that? Of the other three one-win teams, the only one that lost had Doug Martin on the bench (not that I would have necessarily started him anyway, or that it would have made a difference in the outcome)? Aargh.

Rk

LW

Name

Identity

Rec

Str

Lg Rnk

1

1

The Blue Eyes

CBS 2

7-1

W 4

1st of 12

2

2

Morgan’s Team

Fox 8

7-1

W 6

1st of 10

3

3

Single Wing

Flea 1

7-1

W 6

2nd of 12

4

4

Morgan’s Team

Fox 2

7-1

W 4

2nd of 10

5

12

Morgan’s Team

Fox 5

6-2

W 2

2nd of 10

6

10

Team Wick

ESPN 2

6-2

W 1

2nd of 10

7

7

Terrible Trios

Yahoo 3

6-2

W 1

2nd of 10

8

9

Morgan’s Team

Fox 1

6-2

W 3

2nd of 10

9

11

Team Wick

ESPN 5

6-2

W 4

3rd of 12

10

5

Team Wick

ESPN 9

6-2

W 2

3rd of 12

11

6

Morgan’s Team

Fox 6

5-3

L 1

1st of 10

12

14

Team Wick

ESPN 6

5-3

W 2

3rd of 10

13

8

Morgan’s Team

Fox 4

5-3

L 1

3rd of 10

14

17

morganwick

NFL 6

5-3

W 1

3rd of 10

15

15

Team Wick

ESPN 10

5-3

W 3

4th of 12

16

16

Team Wick

ESPN 8

5-3

W 4

4th of 12

17

23

Morgan’s Team

Fox 3

5-3

W 2

4th of 10

18

13

The Experiment

NFL 2

5-3

L 2

5th of 10

19

21

Team Wick

ESPN 3

5-3

W 1

5th of 10

20

24

morganwick

NFL 1

4-4

W 1

5th of 10

21

18

Single Bound

Yahoo 1

4-4

L 1

5th of 10

22

19

The Lucky Ones

Yahoo 7

4-4

L 1

5th of 10

23

28

Team Wick

ESPN 7

4-4

W 2

7th of 12

24

29

The Green Eyes

CBS 3

4-4

W 3

7th of 12

25

20

Morgan’s Team

Fox 7

4-4

W 1

6th of 10

26

26

morganwick

NFL 5

4-4

W 2

6th of 10

27

22

Split Backs

Flea 2

4-4

L 3

4th of 6

28

31

Team Wick

ESPN 1

3-4-1

W 1

7th of 10

29

30

Team Wick

ESPN 4

3-4-1

W 1

8th of 10

30

35

Quarters

Flea 4

3-5

W 1

6th of 8

31

33

Nickel Package

Flea 5

3-5

W 1

9th of 12

32

25

Evil Twins

Yahoo 2

3-5

L 2

8th of 10

33

32

Fantastic Fifteen

Yahoo 4

3-5

W 1

8th of 10

34

37

morganwick

NFL 4

3-5

W 1

8th of 10

35

27

morganwick

NFL 3

3-5

L 1

8th of 10

36

34

The Red Eye

CBS 1

3-5

W 2

10th of 12

37

38

All-Star Squadron

Yahoo 5

2-6

W 1

9th of 10

38

36

Headed for the End Zone

Flea 6

2-6

L 1

11th of 12

39

40

The Infinite

Yahoo 8

2-6

W 1

10th of 10

40

41

Green Lantern Corps

Shark

2-6

W 1

12th of 12

41

42

Trips Wide

Flea 3

1-6

W 1

5th of 5

42

39

Number of the Beast

Yahoo 6

1-7

L 6

10th of 10

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 8

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 4-3 and one of the hottest rivalries in the NFL. Despite the Steelers’ mediocre start, it’s hard to see this one losing its spot.
  • Likely protections: Cardinals-Falcons (FOX) and Chargers-Broncos (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Colts-Patriots and Packers-Lions are really the only half-good games.
  • Analysis: At 5-3 v. 4-3, Colts-Patriots is the best of the alternatives and it’s roughly equivalent to Ravens-Steelers. The best it can do is 5-3 v. 5-3 going up against 5-3 v. 4-4, and the best Packers-Lions can do is similarly one win better on one side, 6-3 v. 4-4. That’s not beating the tentative game bias when it’s a rivalry like this (and even if Cardinals-Falcons wasn’t protected for some reason, it’s too lopsided to matter now). Expect Colts-Pats to settle for the CBS feature game spot.
  • Final prediction: Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (no change).

Week 12 (November 25):

  • Tentative game: Green Bay @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: 5-3 v. 6-2; the Packers may have started out mediocre, but now this game might have the best chance to keep its spot.
  • Likely protections: Vikings-Bears or Rams-Cardinals if anything (FOX) and probably nothing (CBS) as Ravens-Chargers was their only real protection-worthy game and both teams have listed two protected games each, neither of which was this one.
  • Other possible games: Normally Thanksgiving Weekend means a paucity of good games, but Vikings-Bears would be a very strong choice if it’s unprotected (a big if), enough to potentially be flexed in against weaker competition; as is it’ll probably get the late-afternoon feature spot. There are other options as well, but Seahawks-Dolphins is the only one not involving a 3-4 team (and the Seahawks are 4-4) and Bills-Colts is the least lopsided of the ones that do (followed by Ravens-Chargers and Falcons-Bucs).

Week 13 (December 2):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
  • Prospects: Very iffy at 3-4 v. 3-4 (and the Giants starting to pull away with the division), but never count out an NFC East showdown.
  • Likely protections: 49ers-Rams or Vikings-Packers (FOX) and Steelers-Ravens (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Vikings-Packers would be the strongest alternative if it’s unprotected (another big if), as Seahawks-Bears might be a little too lopsided; Pats-Dolphins is also an option, while Colts-Lions and Bucs-Broncos are dark horses.

Week 14 (December 9):

  • Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
  • Prospects: 3-4 v. 5-3. The Lions have improved to the point that if this game weren’t already a tentative I’d be listing it as a “dark horse”. But the Packers are looking like the team that spent most of last year unbeaten, which could end up making it lopsided anyway.
  • Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bears-Vikings would be the favorite if it wasn’t protected; otherwise Dolphins-49ers, despite being a bit lopsided, has the edge over a battle of 4-4 teams in Cardinals-Seahawks, though neither game is likely to overcome the tentative game bias.

Week 15 (December 16):

  • Tentative game: San Francisco @ New England
  • Prospects: 6-2 v. 5-3, pretty much in the same shape as Packers-Giants, replacing the Packers with the Patriots and noting that the Niners aren’t quite all the way back to being that much of a name team.
  • Likely protections: Broncos-Ravens (probably not), Colts-Texans, Steelers-Cowboys, or nothing (CBS) and Giants-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Packers-Bears (or if it’s protected, Giants-Falcons) is in the best shape, though Broncos-Ravens and Colts-Texans are also competitive. Steelers-Broncos, Seahawks-Bills, and Lions-Cardinals are dark horses.

Week 16 (December 23):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 3-4 v. 3-5; possibly the worst of the tentative games. Even if the Jets are driving the Tebow bandwagon, that could just make it lopsided, especially given the alternatives.
  • Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
  • Other possible games: If the Vikings are protected in Weeks 13 and 14, this is probably the likeliest flex with Vikings-Texans giving NBC a shot to show the Vikings anyway. Bears-Cardinals and 49ers-Seahawks could become lopsided, while Bills-Dolphins is a dark horse.

Week 17 (December 30):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

The Premier League is headed to NBC

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It’s official: we are in the middle of a massive paradigm shift in the world of sports, and especially in how soccer is consumed in this country. Don’t believe me? With one exception that I bet won’t stay an exception for long, the top European leagues are now aligned with a network that didn’t exist a few months ago and an entity that didn’t have any soccer presence outside the Olympics a year ago.

I was somewhat shocked to find NBC bidding so aggressively that the Premier League reportedly told the incumbents, Fox and ESPN, late last week not to even bother showing up with a bid. Without the World Cup, with MLS for only two more years, with Formula 1 recently added to its portfolio, and with its dreams of competing with ESPN looking to be on life support, I didn’t think NBC had much motivation to make an aggressive bid for the Premier League.

In the end, though, after reading the announcement, I have to figure the deciding factor was the same one I thought might land NBC the World Cup but didn’t: NBC’s Spanish language presence. I get the impression the Premier League was never going to split up the English and Spanish language rights the way FIFA was willing to, and as a result, I have to imagine a big chunk of NBC’s bid – triple what Fox and ESPN’s joint bid was – was more to land Premier League rights for Telemundo and mun2 than for NBC Sports Network. Compared to most soccer rights, the Premier League has a disproportionately English-language audience in the United States, but it is still one of the two best soccer leagues in the world with multiple major teams, which I have to imagine still makes it a huge draw for Spanish-language eyeballs as well.

It sounds like NBC could make a concerted effort to put games on as many platforms as possible on a regular basis, including substantially more live games on the broadcast network than Fox was willing to show (maybe even involving teams not named Manchester United!), as well as CNBC, MSNBC, and maybe even Bravo or on a pay-per-view package, which could help resolve any Formula 1 conflicts; I can’t help but wonder whether Universal Sports might end up being an option, and whether or not it is could hint at the long-term plans for that network. (I’m very surprised to see USA even be brought up after NBC semi-publicly dropped all non-dog show sports programming from that network. Whether or not Comcast SportsNet might pick up Premier League games would be a very interesting possibility, fraught with plenty of political implications.)

I think this sends a pointed message that NBC has every intent on taking over the unified MLS package when that comes up in another year, possibly in both English and Spanish as well – although the Premier League deal will only coincide with a unified MLS deal for another year. As for the other contenders, while ESPN made noise about its continued commitment to soccer after losing the World Cup, I don’t see them as very motivated at all to hang on to MLS and US National Team rights, certainly compared to NBC and Fox; certainly this, combined with the earlier loss of UK Premier League rights, must make it a lot harder for them to hold on to Ian Darke and other English soccer announcers after the 2014 World Cup.

Perhaps the biggest impact, though, might be to Fox. What little chance there might have been that Fox wasn’t going to launch an all-sports network is gone now, and in all likelihood it’s going to launch at least two. Fox Soccer has lost almost all the programming that was worth it maintaining a separate identity; while Fox still has the Champions League and World Cup, they don’t do nearly as much to support the network as the Premier League did, and could easily survive the transition to a system of all-sports networks, while whatever else is left of Fox’s soccer programming might be kindly described as scraps. There is no reason for Fox to maintain Fox Soccer as a shell of its former self, and I fully expect Fox to be running at least one all-sports network by August 2013.

Without knowing how much beIN Sport bid, I have no way of knowing how much of this is NBC overbidding or ESPN and Fox underbidding. If NBC overbid, I have to wonder what their priorities are, as well as their grasp of the big picture given the F1 problem; some of Mark Lazarus’ comments in the SI interview linked above suggest NBC has become resigned to its third-place status and wants to carve a niche for the NBC Sports Network in the international sports scene (which again makes me wonder what the role of Universal Sports might be long-term). But if ESPN and Fox underbid, that would tell me that Fox may have already set its sights on transitioning Fox Soccer away from its soccer identity and was more concerned about dumping sport-specific network rights F1-style than anything else, even if the Premier League would have been valuable enough programming to add considerably to the value of a general Fox Sports network. Fox may have driven the final nail in Fox Soccer’s coffin itself.

Sport-Specific Networks
10.5 14.5 7 5.5 1 1.5

Why ESPN effectively created a Fox Sports network – and why NBC was never going to compete with either of them

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Virtually from the moment the sports TV wars started, I have been wondering why ESPN seemed to have such a myopic fixation on NBC’s attempts to build the NBC Sports Network that it was willing to essentially give Fox rights left and right to potentially create a far more imposing competitor sooner than NBC might ever pose – especially when ESPN gave so many statements early on effectively dismissing NBC’s prospects of competing with them. Starting with the alliance for Pac-12 and Big 12 rights, continuing with Fox’s big wins of UFC and World Cup rights, up to the first rumors of the Fox Sports 1 plans, and right on through the bizarre saga of the baseball renegotiations, my bewilderment at ESPN’s game plan has grown and grown.

In retrospect, I shouldn’t have been so confused. In fact, maybe everyone should have written off NBC’s prospects of competing with ESPN from the start. Comcast’s cable operator business, seemingly the ace in the hole for carriage of all its other networks, may well be the Achilles heel that forever cripples NBC’s efforts to get any sort of head start.

What clarified this for me was a post on the Frank the Tank’s Slant blog earlier in the week (specifically the third full paragraph). Essentially, it suggests that what ESPN fears is not so much NBC as a competitor for sports rights and eyeballs as Comcast as a business partner potentially holding its own ace in the hole. ESPN really doesn’t fear any entity eating into its dominance, but what it doesn’t want in a million years is Comcast owning a sports network that might remotely be construed as anywhere close to on par with ESPN. An even remotely strong NBC Sports Network could give Comcast leverage to lower the rights fees it pays ESPN for carriage, and that could eat substantially into ESPN’s bottom line when combined with the impact of the sports network itself. ESPN may not want any real competitors to its dominance, but it really doesn’t want NBC to be one of them. It’s perfectly happy to build up Fox as its “competitor” if it means avoiding the fate a competition with NBC would entail.

I suggested that for ESPN, the smart play in the Major League Baseball negotiations was to pit NBC and Fox against one another, and that its move to grab all three of its existing primetime packages was therefore a mistake because it all but eliminated NBC from the bidding. But ESPN had a reason for its myopic focus on NBC. If it wanted to pit Fox against anybody, its first choice would be to pit it against Turner, or even CBS, before NBC. That’s exactly what it did by grabbing all three primetime packages, forcing Fox and Turner/CBS to slug it out for what initially appeared to be a single remaining package. (That ESPN didn’t come back in to grab more of the postseason when it turned out to be two packages after all remains mystifying.)

Comcast (and Cablevision, and to some extent Time Warner Cable) can leverage its cable business to build its regional sports networks. Most areas have one or two dominant cable providers, so they are primarily using regional sports networks to pry customers away from satellite companies like DirecTV, knowing they have few other options. In most cases, when there is one regional sports network in an area it develops a complete monopoly over the area’s sports teams, with the exception of team-owned networks. To my knowledge, there are only three places in the entire country where a Fox Sports network competes with a network owned by a cable operator: Los Angeles, where Fox Sports West and Prime Ticket compete with Time Warner Cable SportsNet; the South, where Fox Sports South and SportSouth compete with CSS; and Florida, where Fox Sports Florida and SunSports compete with Bright House Sports Network. But while the jury’s still out on TWC SportsNet, CSS falls far, far short of Fox’s monopoly over the South’s professional teams, with even its SEC coverage stuck behind Fox in the pecking order, and Bright House is so far further behind than that it barely even qualifies. Neither of them can use their networks to hold Fox hostage.

But when Comcast runs a national sports network, it’s competing on a completely different playing field. Its status as a cable operator becomes far less important because it must operate primarily as a media company, negotiating with other cable providers. Its goal is different as well; where a regional sports network seeks to form a monopoly over a market, the sports TV wars have all along been all about the opposite: to compete with ESPN. But it still remains a cable operator and customer of all the other sports networks as well, and the two roles must necessarily intersect. Nowhere does Comcast have so complete a monopoly that it can force favorable terms for its own sports network on anyone, because it must necessarily compete nationally, a problem numerous league-owned networks (as well as beIN Sport) have run into in recent years. Carriage on satellite providers wasn’t enough to get NFL Network on cable companies without the added carrot of RedZone, nor is carriage on some cable providers enough to get the Pac-12 Network on DirecTV. But it can do just enough to put pressure in the other direction on behalf of its cable business – but only if NBC Sports Network is already big enough to do so, and ESPN wants to make sure it never is.

If TWC SportsNet really takes off, especially if it wins Dodgers rights, it’s entirely possible it could force Fox to leave the Los Angeles market completely. Certainly whenever Comcast has moved into a market, Fox has pulled up its tent poles and fled town. When Comcast signed up with the Astros and Rockets to form CSN Houston, Fox shut down FS Houston virtually the instant its last Astros game ended. Fox also knew FSN Chicago wasn’t long for this world when the area’s teams signed up with Comcast as well. As I suggested before, Fox realizes that as a pure media company without a cable operator business, it is at an inherent disadvantage in the regional sports network market, and I think that’s why it is thinking of changing its sports strategy away from its current mix of RSNs and sport-specific networks and towards the formation of at least one general national all-sports network – and why I think it’ll cannibalize FSN’s remaining national programming to do so.

I have to imagine the NHL has to regret shacking up with NBC now, staking the future growth of the sport to Comcast’s ability to grow the NBC Sports Network at a time when that ability looked a lot bigger than it actually was. Had the NHL’s contract come due even one year later, I have no doubt it would have come crawling to Fox to take it in; as it is, it’s now stuck with NBC for the rest of the decade, at which point (assuming the Internet hasn’t rendered TV rights meaningless by then) I fully expect it to beg and plead with another entity to take it in anyway, pending the outcome of NBA negotiations and the overall course of the sports TV wars. (Having another two years on its previous NBC and Versus deals also means any customers wouldn’t have to worry about the lockout the NHL is going through right now. Just reason #2246 why Gary Bettman is clearly a mole planted by David Stern to undermine the NHL.)

This also affects how I see future contracts going down. I now suspect Turner has the lead over Comcast for whatever Thursday Night games the NFL elects to sell (though I still doubt they sell any), because if Comcast starts looking like a legitimate threat Fox and especially ESPN will go all-out to keep them down. (Fox would be the no-brainer favorite if not for its existing NFC package; as it stands I still see ESPN in third place, not that far behind Comcast.) Anyone looking for the return of “Roundball Rock” can forget about it right now, because it’s far more likely you’ll see Fox make a serious run at NBA rights than NBC, especially with NBC’s existing NHL commitments. And it’s hard for me to see a future where NBC has much of a chance to win MLS rights long-term, especially with Fox looking to complement their World Cup rights; I don’t think it’s far-fetched for Fox to beat both incumbents and rejoin MLS two years after losing those rights to NBC, especially as Fox Sports 1 wasn’t being bandied about at the time. Unless Comcast wanted to separate all its non-RSN sports properties, including the entire NBC broadcast network and stations, from at least its cable business, the NHL might remain now and forever the only thing keeping NBC Sports Network from CBSSN’s level.

FF50 Challenge Power Rankings – Week 7

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Okay, so I ended up goofing things up enough this week that the one-win teams get a one-week reprieve; we’re down to three Yahoo teams in that category anyway and that’s it. Part of it was the chaos caused by the mega-bye, part of it was everything else I was dealing with last week. And naturally, the one one-win team that gets elevated priority in the pecking order, the Shark League team, was completely undermined by Maurice Jones-Drew’s injury. We also have a second ESPN team get a tie, and naturally, it was one where I wound up leaving Jimmy Graham in the starting lineup and Brandon Pettigrew on the bench.

I’m considering switching to sorting the rankings by an index number, determined by taking the winning percentage, adding the ratio of the rank from last place over the number of teams (so last place would be considered first), and subtracting the ratio of the overall rank over the number teams (so first place would be considered first).

Rk

LW

Name

Identity

Rec

Str

Lg Rnk

1

1

The Blue Eyes

CBS 2

6-1

W 3

1st of 12

2

3

Morgan’s Team

Fox 8

6-1

W 5

1st of 10

3

7

Single Wing

Flea 1

6-1

W 5

2nd of 12

4

6

Morgan’s Team

Fox 2

6-1

W 3

2nd of 10

5

10

Team Wick

ESPN 9

5-2

W 1

1st of 12

6

8

Morgan’s Team

Fox 6

5-2

W 1

1st of 10

7

2

Terrible Trios

Yahoo 3

5-2

L 1

1st of 10

8

9

Morgan’s Team

Fox 4

5-2

W 3

2nd of 10

9

11

Morgan’s Team

Fox 1

5-2

W 2

2nd of 10

10

5

Team Wick

ESPN 2

5-2

L 1

2nd of 10

11

16

Team Wick

ESPN 5

5-2

W 3

3rd of 12

12

12

Morgan’s Team

Fox 5

5-2

W 1

3rd of 10

13

4

The Experiment

NFL 2

5-2

L 1

3rd of 10

14

17

Team Wick

ESPN 6

4-3

W 1

3rd of 10

15

19

Team Wick

ESPN 10

4-3

W 2

4th of 12

16

23

Team Wick

ESPN 8

4-3

W 3

4th of 12

17

13

morganwick

NFL 6

4-3

L 2

4th of 10

18

25

Single Bound

Yahoo 1

4-3

W 2

4th of 10

19

24

The Lucky Ones

Yahoo 7

4-3

W 1

4th of 10

20

21

Morgan’s Team

Fox 7

4-3

W 1

5th of 10

21

14

Team Wick

ESPN 3

4-3

L 1

5th of 10

22

15

Split Backs

Flea 2

4-3

L 2

4th of 6

23

20

Morgan’s Team

Fox 3

3-4

L 2

6th of 10

24

18

morganwick

NFL 1

3-4

L 1

7th of 10

25

22

Evil Twins

Yahoo 2

3-4

L 1

7th of 10

26

28

morganwick

NFL 5

3-4

W 1

7th of 10

27

34

morganwick

NFL 3

3-4

W 2

7th of 10

28

31

Team Wick

ESPN 7

3-4

W 1

9th of 12

29

35

The Green Eyes

CBS 3

3-4

W 2

10th of 12

30

27

Team Wick

ESPN 4

2-4-1

T 1

8th of 10

31

29

Team Wick

ESPN 1

2-4-1

L 1

8th of 10

32

33

Fantastic Fifteen

Yahoo 4

2-5

L 1

8th of 10

33

30

Nickel Package

Flea 5

2-5

L 2

10th of 12

34

41

The Red Eye

CBS 1

2-5

W 1

10th of 12

35

32

Quarters

Flea 4

2-5

L 2

7th of 8

36

38

Headed for the End Zone

Flea 6

2-5

W 2

11th of 12

37

26

morganwick

NFL 4

2-5

L 2

10th of 10

38

36

All-Star Squadron

Yahoo 5

1-6

L 2

10th of 10

39

39

Number of the Beast

Yahoo 6

1-6

L 5

10th of 10

40

37

The Infinite

Yahoo 8

1-6

L 1

10th of 10

41

40

Green Lantern Corps

Shark

1-6

L 4

12th of 12

42

42

Trips Wide

Flea 3

0-6

L 6

5th of 5

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 7

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-3; one of the hottest rivalries in the NFL, but the Steelers look like they might be decidedly mediocre. Still, that might be enough for the tentative game bias to sustain it, especially given the alternatives.
  • Likely protections: Cardinals-Falcons (FOX) and Chargers-Broncos (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Colts-Patriots and Eagles-Redskins are the main possibilities, but only Colts-Patriots is better than the tentative and then only marginally so. Jets-Rams is a dark horse.

Week 12 (November 25):

  • Tentative game: Green Bay @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: 4-3 v. 5-2; a pair of name teams and both over .500 to boot. Time will tell if the Packers have become suddenly mediocre, though.
  • Likely protections: Vikings-Bears or Rams-Cardinals if anything (FOX) and probably nothing (CBS) as Ravens-Chargers was their only real protection-worthy game and both teams have listed two protected games each, neither of which was this one.
  • Other possible games: Normally Thanksgiving Weekend means a paucity of good games, but here we have Seahawks-Dolphins, Ravens-Chargers, and the game Fox didn’t protect, plus Bills-Colts as a dark horse. Vikings-Bears is an especially strong game that, if it’s unprotected (a big if), just might steal the flex if the Packers continue to struggle.

Week 13 (December 2):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
  • Prospects: Very iffy at 3-3 v. 3-3, but never count out an NFC East showdown.
  • Likely protections: 49ers-Rams or Vikings-Packers (FOX) and Steelers-Ravens (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Seahawks-Bears and, if unprotected, Vikings-Packers are both waiting if Eagles-Cowboys stumbles too far. Pats-Dolphins is also strong, while Cardinals-Jets, Bengals-Chargers, and, if unprotected, 49ers-Rams are dark horses.

Week 14 (December 9):

  • Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
  • Prospects: 2-4 v. 4-3. Hard to say how much of Detroit’s record has to do with their schedule, but right now this game isn’t looking good.
  • Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Fox’s unprotected game is the favorite; Dolphins-49ers is good but lopsided, while Ravens-Redskins and Cowboys-Bengals are dark horses.

Week 15 (December 16):

  • Tentative game: San Francisco @ New England
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 4-3, pretty much in the same shape as Packers-Giants, replacing the Packers with the Patriots and noting that the Niners aren’t quite all the way back to being that much of a name team.
  • Likely protections: Broncos-Ravens (probably not), Colts-Texans, Steelers-Cowboys, or nothing (CBS) and Giants-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Packers-Bears (or if it’s protected, Giants-Falcons) is in the best shape, while CBS’ potential protections are either lopsided or, in the case of Steelers-Cowboys, simply too far behind to matter, and Vikings-Rams is a dark horse.

Week 16 (December 23):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 3-3 v. 3-4; somewhat mediocre, but who knows if the Jets will be driving the Tebow bandwagon by this point.
  • Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
  • Other possible games: One of the better slates of possibilities makes for possibly the likeliest flex, with only Week 14 challenging it: Vikings-Texans, Bears-Cardinals, and 49ers-Seahawks all pit two teams above .500, waiting to pounce if either the Chargers’ or Jets’ season collapses. Redskins-Eagles and Bills-Dolphins are dark horses.

Week 17 (December 30):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

2012 College Football Rankings – Week 7

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I put the ten worst teams in FBS at the bottom of my rankings each week in “inspiration” from ESPN’s Bottom 10, a humorous roundup of same that’s been going at least as long as I’ve been doing this. It does not take its remit seriously one bit, letting the teams themselves get overshadowed by whatever theme it’s cooked up for the week, as well as by the holder of its spot, awarded to a high-profile team with any record that just took an embarrassing loss. This week, that spot was held by West Virginia, an unbeaten team that just took an admittedly-blowout road loss to a one-loss Texas Tech team. Is that really the best they could come up with?

Methinks that loss says more about Texas Tech than it says about West Virginia.

Yes, the Red Raiders’ own single loss was a blowout at the hands of Oklahoma, but even considering that I have to think the polls are vastly underrating Texas Tech. Not the C Ratings, where the Red Raiders’ big win is enough for them to plunder the spot away from South Carolina, who only slips one spot after their close loss to LSU.

Still, the Mountaineers did fall all the way from #12 to out of positive B Points. But that was just a part of a larger story: while the entire rankings were shaken up last week, a number of losses by ranked teams this week results in craziness focused mainly on the lower part of the rankings, where the expectations for success lowered considerably. Had Mississippi State’s C Rating remained constant, it would have gained two spots and nuzzled up against Arizona State for #22. On the other hand, Georgia managed to fall a whopping 22 spots without even playing, after every single one of the teams they’d played lost, with only South Carolina avoiding a blowout.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC ’06 Boise St.
6-0 LW: A Rat: .902 B Rating: 47.525 C Rating: 41.354 AP: 1 BCS: 1
Do you think the Tide could beat the Cleveland Browns right now?
2 Oregon P12 ’09 Boise St.
6-0 LW: A Rat: .806 B Rating: 25.048 C Rating: 21.163 AP: 2 BCS: 3
Oregon could blow out the team immediately below and still not catch Alabama.
3 Texas Tech B12 Prncton/Yale
5-1 LW: A Rat: .630 B Rating: 21.301 C Rating: 18.648 AP: 18 BCS: 17
The Red Raiders served the rest of the country notice just how good they can be. But the Oklahoma loss could haunt them all season.
4 South Carolina SEC BCS Title
6-1 LW: A Rat: .664 B Rating: 21.794 C Rating: 17.688 AP: 9 BCS: 7
A devastating road loss, but they might still be better than the Gators – and have a chance to prove it this week.
5 Notre Dame BCS Title
6-0 LW: A Rat: .772 B Rating: 19.356 C Rating: 16.612 AP: 5 BCS: 4
Needing overtime and a controversial finish to beat Stanford doesn’t impress the C Ratings when you were already this high, and blows a chance to capitalize on the South Carolina loss. But the polls finally see how good the Godlen Domers really are.
6 Oklahoma B12 BCS Title
4-1 LW: A Rat: .599 B Rating: 18.617 C Rating: 16.442 AP: 10 BCS: 9
From negative B Points to in two weeks. After demolishing Texas and becoming the team that crushed the Red Raiders in Lubbock, I honestly think the C Rating-unfriendly schedule is the only thing keeping the Sooners from .
7 Ohio State B10 Probation
7-0 LW: A Rat: .679 B Rating: 16.293 C Rating: 13.253 AP: 7 BlogPoll: 10
I’m actually a little surprised the Buckeyes didn’t fall further after a tight win over 2-4 Indiana than the two spots from Texas Tech and Oklahoma’s hard charges. Another opportunity missed.
8 Kansas State B12 BCS Title
6-0 LW: A Rat: .760 B Rating: 14.262 C Rating: 12.060 AP: 4 BCS: 4
And if Oklahoma is as good as they look, how good must K-State be for beating them in Norman? But that was by only five, and no matter how good Iowa State is they don’t benefit much from beating them by six either.
9 Florida State ACC BCS Title
6-1 LW: A Rat: .700 B Rating: 14.589 C Rating: 11.879 AP: 12 BCS: 14
The Seminoles put the hurt on Boston College, but they’re 1-5. A truer test will come when they visit rival Miami.
10 Florida SEC BCS Title
6-0 LW: A Rat: .759 B Rating: 14.320 C Rating: 11.801 AP: 3 BCS: 2
The Gators don’t benefit as much as you’d think from LSU’s big win because neither it nor Florida’s original win were by margins that big. Want the spot? Beat South Carolina in the Swamp.
11 Texas A&M SEC BCS Title
5-1 LW: A Rat: .594 B Rating: 11.431 C Rating: 9.253 AP: 20 BCS: 18
The Aggies have the opposite situation as Florida State: a narrow win over a good team. LSU should serve as a benchmark of where this team really stands.
12 Oregon State P12 BCS Title
5-0 LW: #21 A Rat: .675 B Rating: 9.663 C Rating: 7.939 AP: 8 BCS: 8
After pulling away from BYU, Beavers fans are wondering if everyone has the wrong Oregon team going to Miami. Certainly the Civil War should be one for the ages.
13 Stanford P12 BCS Bowl
4-2 LW: A Rat: .388 B Rating: 6.140 C Rating: 5.226 AP: 22 BCS: 20
Stanford acquitted themselves better than I thought they would against Notre Dame, but still, a loss is a loss. Time to get back on track against rival Cal.
14 Iowa State B12 BCS Bowl
4-2 LW: #14 A Rat: .408 B Rating: 4.779 C Rating: 5.065 BCS: 24 —
After how close they kept it against K-State, I’m actually starting to become mystified at the lack of love for the Cyclones. If being ranked in the BCS despite a smattering of remaining poll votes doesn’t wake people up, a big win in Stillwater will.
15 Cincinnati BST BCS Title
5-0 LW: A Rat: .790 B Rating: 7.058 C Rating: 4.856 AP: 21 BCS: 21
Games against FCS schools are akin to bye weeks. But a road trip to Toledo is definitely a trap game.
16 LSU SEC BCS Title
6-1 LW: #18 A Rat: .580 B Rating: 6.767 C Rating: 4.069 AP: 6 BCS: 6
A big win, but a narrow one at home. A road trip to College Station will show where this team really stands.
17 Rutgers BST BCS Title
6-0 LW: #22 A Rat: .782 B Rating: 7.396 C Rating: 3.974 AP: 19 BCS: 15
So many teams took bad losses in this range that Rutgers moved up a fraction of a point – good enough for five spots.
18 North Carolina ACC BCS Bowl
5-2 LW: A Rat: .517 B Rating: 6.159 C Rating: 3.450 — —
Both of UNC’s losses were on the road by five or less, and the five came to an unbeaten team. If they beat Duke, the way could be clear to win the Coastal.
19 Toledo MAC MAC Title
6-1 LW: #19 A Rat: .535 B Rating: 6.388 C Rating: 3.036 — —
Tight wins never penalize you much, even against winless Eastern Michigan, and especially with enough losses by teams ahead of them that Toledo loses close to seven-tenths of a point and stays put.
20 Texas B12 BCS Bowl
4-2 LW: A Rat: .415 B Rating: 3.906 C Rating: 3.021 BCS: 25 Harris: 25
Where was the Longhorn team that started the season in the top 5 of the C Ratings? Now Texas is third best in their own state, which should leave them very afraid.
21 Penn State B10 Probation
4-2 LW: #26 A Rat: .437 B Rating: 5.164 C Rating: 2.318 — —
Could the Big Ten’s best two teams both be ineligible for the Rose Bowl? Under the circumstances, Penn State’s first full season without Joe Paterno is going amazingly well, with a win over then-unbeaten Northwestern under their belt.
22 Arizona State P12 BCS Title
5-1 LW: #20 A Rat: .644 B Rating: 6.179 C Rating: 2.287 Coaches: 24 Harris: 24
No credit for blowing out a godawful Colorado team. Expect them to fall off after getting crushed by Oregon.
23 Clemson ACC BCS Title
5-1 LW: #27 A Rat: .555 B Rating: 4.167 C Rating: 2.226 AP: 14 BCS: 19
How crazy are the bottom of the rankings? Clemson moves up a full four spots despite not even playing.
24 Utah State WAC WAC Title
5-2 LW: #47 A Rat: .447 B Rating: 4.518 C Rating: 2.208 — —
Both losses were on the road to good-to-decent teams by close margins, and Utah’s the only other team they haven’t beaten by double digits. After a 22-point road win over San Jose State, notice has been served on the remnants of the WAC.
25 USC P12 BCS Title
5-1 LW: #52 A Rat: .564 B Rating: 4.642 C Rating: 1.946 AP: 11 BCS: 10
Somehow USC rocketed up the rankings despite a modest 10-point road win over 3-3 Washington and most of the teams they played losing. Guess that’s what Cal’s blowout of Washington State will do for you.


37 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #26 Mississippi State (was #25), Louisiana Tech (was ), #37 Georgia (was #15), #41 West Virginia (was #12), #54 Baylor (was #23)

Unbeaten teams not on Top 25: #26 Mississippi State, #30 Louisville, #39 Ohio (all in positive B Points, Ohio not in positive C)

Rest of Watch List (all 5-1 unless otherwise noted): #27 Northern Illinois (6-1), TCU*, Louisiana Tech, Boise State, Oklahoma State (3-2), #33 Michigan (4-2), #34 Nevada (6-1), #35 Western Kentucky, #36 Wisconsin (5-2), #37 Georgia, #38 Iowa (4-2)

Other Positive B Ratings: #40 Northwestern* (6-1), #42 Louisiana-Monroe (4-2), #44 Fresno State (4-3) (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #41 West Virginia, #45 Michigan State, #46 Pittsburgh, #54 Baylor, #55 BYU, #59 San Jose State, #63 Texas-San Antonio

Bottom 10: #115 UTEP, #116 Akron, #117 Colorado State, #118 Eastern Michigan, #119 Illinois, #120 Colorado, #121 Idaho, #122 Tulane, #123 Hawaii, #124 Massachusetts

Best game of week: South Carolina @ Florida, 3:30pm ET, CBS

The latest on a potential suite of all-sports Fox networks

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So, I said I was going to lay out how a trio of all-sports Fox networks would work, only to find that for the most part, it works with plenty of space to preserve non-live programming, even if you kill FCS. There was one weekend with a multitude of college football games clashing with a UFC event, Premier League soccer, baseball, AND the NASCAR Truck Series, but that’s the exception.

On the other hand, it’s now looking very, very likely to happen, because the English Premier League bidding has attracted as many as five bidders, with a surprising sixth kicking the tires but dropping out. If any but Fox (or marketing firm IMG) win, that is probably the death knell for Fox Soccer. ESPN, NBC, and beIN Sport would all love to be the ones to drive a stake into Fox’s heart, even if they don’t actually pull it off. Oddly, reportedly Discovery Networks, the group mostly known for its networks filled with documentaries (even if verging into the sensationalistic or “reality” these days), was kicking the tires on adding games to its Velocity network, the former HD Theater, one of a number of former HD channels from when HD was a novelty (existing more to show off the technology and lump together several networks’ programming for HD simulcasts than anything else) that now have very little reason to exist, but apparently decided against it.

I’m not surprised NBC didn’t put up much of a fight; I actually hadn’t considered them much of a player to begin with, and for all the pub the Premier League has gotten, F1 might actually net them comparable ratings. On the other hand, I don’t buy the argument that beIN Sport actually picked up too many rights to add the Premier League to that too; I think they’ve shown plenty of signs that they’re willing to launch a second network in each language if circumstances warrant. ESPN would love to get the rights but I think ultimately if they do, they sublicence a number of games to Fox or NBC. My hunch is that it’s a two-horse race between Fox and beIN Sport, with ESPN running a close third that might ultimately form a joint bid with one of the others (more likely Fox). Normally, I might call Fox the favorite, but as always, never underestimate the power of Arab oil money; at the very least, a Fox-ESPN joint bid might be necessary just to fend off beIN Sport.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 6

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
  • Prospects: 5-1 v. 2-3; one of the hottest rivalries in the NFL, but the Steelers had better get off the schnide right quick if they don’t want it to become lopsided.
  • Likely protections: Cardinals-Falcons (FOX) and Chargers-Broncos (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Colts-Patriots, Eagles-Redskins, Packers-Lions, and Jets-Rams are the main possibilities, but all are iffy at best; Eagles-Redskins and Jets-Rams are the best ones at 3-3 v. 3-3, and even if the Steelers just continue to hover near .500 that won’t overcome the tentative game bias. (Unless maybe Tim Tebow is starting under center…)

Week 12 (November 25):

  • Tentative game: Green Bay @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: 3-3 v. 4-2; a pair of name teams, but both look a little questionable so far, especially the Packers.
  • Likely protections: Vikings-Bears or Rams-Cardinals if anything (FOX) and probably nothing (CBS) as Ravens-Chargers was their only real protection-worthy game and both teams have listed two protected games each, neither of which was this one.
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend, paucity of good games, though Vikings-Bears is actually a rare matchup of two teams above .500 (assuming it was left unprotected of course). Besides Ravens-Chargers and whatever game Fox doesn’t protect, Seahawks-Dolphins is a possibility, and Bills-Colts is a dark horse.

Week 13 (December 2):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
  • Prospects: Very iffy at 3-3 v. 2-3, but never count out an NFC East showdown.
  • Likely protections: 49ers-Rams or Vikings-Packers (FOX) and Steelers-Ravens (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Seahawks-Bears might actually be stronger than either of Fox’s potentially protected games (leaving aside the Hawks’ iffy national name), and Cardinals-Jets is about as strong. Pats-Dolphins, Bucs-Broncos, and Bengals-Chargers are all dark horses.

Week 14 (December 9):

  • Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
  • Prospects: 2-3 v. 3-3. I’m going to take Bill Simmons’ advice and see if the Lions “are who we thought they were”, as Dennis Green would say; as it stands this isn’t really any worse than some of the other tentatives.
  • Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Fox’s unprotected game is the favorite, followed by Ravens-Redskins and Dolphins-49ers. Cowboys-Bengals, Rams-Bills, and Eagles-Bucs are dark horses.

Week 15 (December 16):

  • Tentative game: San Francisco @ New England
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 3-3, which might still make it the tentative game in the best shape, or at least tied with Packers-Giants. Every single tentative has a team at 3-3 or 2-3; I wouldn’t be surprised by two flexes this year, or none at all. That’s how crazy the league is this year.
  • Likely protections: Broncos-Ravens (probably not), Colts-Texans, Steelers-Cowboys, or nothing (CBS) and Giants-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Vikings-Rams, Packers-Bears, Seahawks-Bills, and the games CBS doesn’t protect, with Lions-Cardinals as a dark horse.

Week 16 (December 23):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 3-3 v. 3-3; somewhat mediocre, but who knows if the Jets will be driving the Tebow bandwagon by this point.
  • Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
  • Other possible games: One of the better slates of possibilities: Vikings-Texans, Bears-Cardinals, and 49ers-Seahawks all pit two teams above .500, waiting to pounce if either the Chargers’ or Jets’ season collapses. Redskins-Eagles and Bills-Dolphins are outside possibilities, while Rams-Bucs is a very dark horse.

Week 17 (December 30):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

FF50 Challenge Power Rankings – Week 6

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So I eventually did decide to go the no-frills route in doing the power rankings, and only do that information that’s easy for me to collect in the process of resetting the rankings anyway.

I’m starting to reach the point of the season where I’m more comfortable with abandoning teams. So my one remaining winless team, Trips Wide, will be abandoned after this week. Incredibly, no matter how low it goes it’s still assured of a playoff spot, because Fleaflicker allows you to run half-full leagues even with horribly unbalanced divisions, including, in my case, a division with exactly one team – not even when it’s a two-division league that could just be consolidated into one. Seriously, Fleaflicker, WTF? With six remaining 1-5 teams, including the Shark League team, any of the other 1-5 teams who remain so after next week and are behind the Shark team in the power rankings will be abandoned.

Rk 

LW 

Name 

Identity 

Rec 

Str 

Lg Rnk 

1 

6 

The Blue Eyes

CBS 2 

5-1 

W 2

1st of 12

2

2 

Terrible Trios

Yahoo 3 

5-1 

W 2 

1st of 10

3

8 

Morgan’s Team

Fox 8 

5-1 

W 4 

1st of 10

4

3 

The Experiment

NFL 2 

5-1 

W 4 

1st of 10

5 

12 

Team Wick

ESPN 2 

5-1 

W 2

1st of 10

6 

11 

Morgan’s Team

Fox 2 

5-1 

W 2 

2nd of 10

7 

14 

Single Wing

Flea 1 

5-1 

W 4

3rd of 12

8

1 

Morgan’s Team

Fox 6 

4-2 

L 1 

2nd of 10

9 

15 

Morgan’s Team

Fox 4 

4-2 

W 2 

2nd of 10

10 

5 

Team Wick

ESPN 9 

4-2 

L 1 

3rd of 12

11 

18 

Morgan’s Team

Fox 1 

4-2 

W 1 

3rd of 10

12

7 

Morgan’s Team

Fox 5 

4-2 

L 1 

3rd of 10

13

9 

morganwick

NFL 6 

4-2 

L 1 

3rd of 10

14

19 

Team Wick

ESPN 3 

4-2

W 2

3rd of 10

15

4 

Split Backs

Flea 2 

4-2 

L 1

2nd of 6

16 

21 

Team Wick

ESPN 5

4-2 

W 2

4th of 12

17 

16 

Team Wick

ESPN 6 

3-3 

L 1

3rd of 10

18 

24 

morganwick

NFL 1 

3-3 

W 1 

4th of 10

19 

20 

Team Wick

ESPN 10 

3-3 

W 1

5th of 12

20 

17 

Morgan’s Team

Fox 3 

3-3 

L 1 

5th of 10

21

10 

Morgan’s Team

Fox 7 

3-3 

L 1 

5th of 10

22 

23 

Evil Twins

Yahoo 2 

3-3 

W 1 

5th of 10

23 

29 

Team Wick

ESPN 8 

3-3

W 2

7th of 12

24

13 

The Lucky Ones

Yahoo 7 

3-3 

L 1

6th of 10

25 

30 

Single Bound

Yahoo 1 

3-3 

W 1 

6th of 10

26 

25 

morganwick

NFL 4 

2-4 

L 1 

6th of 10

27

31 

Team Wick

ESPN 4 

2-4 

W 1

7th of 10

28 

26 

morganwick

NFL 5 

2-4 

L 3 

7th of 10

29 

32 

Team Wick

ESPN 1 

2-3-1 

W 2 

8th of 10

30

22 

Nickel Package

Flea 5 

2-4

L 1

9th of 12

31

28 

Team Wick

ESPN 7 

2-4 

L 1

9th of 12

32

27 

Quarters

Flea 4 

2-4

L 1

6th of 8

33

34 

Fantastic Fifteen

Yahoo 4 

2-4

W 1

8th of 10

34

37 

morganwick

NFL 3 

2-4

W 1

9th of 10

35

39 

The Green Eyes

CBS 3 

2-4

W 1

11th of 12

36 

33 

All-Star Squadron

Yahoo 5 

1-5 

L 1 

9th of 10

37

41 

The Infinite

Yahoo 8 

1-5

W 1

9th of 10

38

42 

Headed for the End Zone

Flea 6 

1-5

W 1

11th of 12

39 

35 

Number of the Beast

Yahoo 6 

1-5 

L 4 

10th of 10

40

36 

Green Lantern Corps

Shark 

1-5 

L 3 

12th of 12

41 

38 

The Red Eye

CBS 1 

1-5 

L 3 

12th of 12

42 

40 

Trips Wide

Flea 3 

0-5 

L 5 

5th of 5