Sports – Page 45 – MorganWick.com

The Premier League is headed to NBC

December 27, 2015October 29, 2012 by Morgan Wick

It’s official: we are in the middle of a massive paradigm shift in the world of sports, and especially in how soccer is consumed in this country. Don’t believe me? With one exception that I bet won’t stay an exception for long, the top European leagues are now aligned with a network that didn’t exist a few months ago and an entity that didn’t have any soccer presence outside the Olympics a year ago.

I was somewhat shocked to find NBC bidding so aggressively that the Premier League reportedly told the incumbents, Fox and ESPN, late last week not to even bother showing up with a bid. Without the World Cup, with MLS for only two more years, with Formula 1 recently added to its portfolio, and with its dreams of competing with ESPN looking to be on life support, I didn’t think NBC had much motivation to make an aggressive bid for the Premier League.

In the end, though, after reading the announcement, I have to figure the deciding factor was the same one I thought might land NBC the World Cup but didn’t: NBC’s Spanish language presence. I get the impression the Premier League was never going to split up the English and Spanish language rights the way FIFA was willing to, and as a result, I have to imagine a big chunk of NBC’s bid – triple what Fox and ESPN’s joint bid was – was more to land Premier League rights for Telemundo and mun2 than for NBC Sports Network. Compared to most soccer rights, the Premier League has a disproportionately English-language audience in the United States, but it is still one of the two best soccer leagues in the world with multiple major teams, which I have to imagine still makes it a huge draw for Spanish-language eyeballs as well.

It sounds like NBC could make a concerted effort to put games on as many platforms as possible on a regular basis, including substantially more live games on the broadcast network than Fox was willing to show (maybe even involving teams not named Manchester United!), as well as CNBC, MSNBC, and maybe even Bravo or on a pay-per-view package, which could help resolve any Formula 1 conflicts; I can’t help but wonder whether Universal Sports might end up being an option, and whether or not it is could hint at the long-term plans for that network. (I’m very surprised to see USA even be brought up after NBC semi-publicly dropped all non-dog show sports programming from that network. Whether or not Comcast SportsNet might pick up Premier League games would be a very interesting possibility, fraught with plenty of political implications.)

I think this sends a pointed message that NBC has every intent on taking over the unified MLS package when that comes up in another year, possibly in both English and Spanish as well – although the Premier League deal will only coincide with a unified MLS deal for another year. As for the other contenders, while ESPN made noise about its continued commitment to soccer after losing the World Cup, I don’t see them as very motivated at all to hang on to MLS and US National Team rights, certainly compared to NBC and Fox; certainly this, combined with the earlier loss of UK Premier League rights, must make it a lot harder for them to hold on to Ian Darke and other English soccer announcers after the 2014 World Cup.

Perhaps the biggest impact, though, might be to Fox. What little chance there might have been that Fox wasn’t going to launch an all-sports network is gone now, and in all likelihood it’s going to launch at least two. Fox Soccer has lost almost all the programming that was worth it maintaining a separate identity; while Fox still has the Champions League and World Cup, they don’t do nearly as much to support the network as the Premier League did, and could easily survive the transition to a system of all-sports networks, while whatever else is left of Fox’s soccer programming might be kindly described as scraps. There is no reason for Fox to maintain Fox Soccer as a shell of its former self, and I fully expect Fox to be running at least one all-sports network by August 2013.

Without knowing how much beIN Sport bid, I have no way of knowing how much of this is NBC overbidding or ESPN and Fox underbidding. If NBC overbid, I have to wonder what their priorities are, as well as their grasp of the big picture given the F1 problem; some of Mark Lazarus’ comments in the SI interview linked above suggest NBC has become resigned to its third-place status and wants to carve a niche for the NBC Sports Network in the international sports scene (which again makes me wonder what the role of Universal Sports might be long-term). But if ESPN and Fox underbid, that would tell me that Fox may have already set its sights on transitioning Fox Soccer away from its soccer identity and was more concerned about dumping sport-specific network rights F1-style than anything else, even if the Premier League would have been valuable enough programming to add considerably to the value of a general Fox Sports network. Fox may have driven the final nail in Fox Soccer’s coffin itself.

					Sport-Specific Networks
10.5	14.5	7	5.5	1	1.5

Why ESPN effectively created a Fox Sports network – and why NBC was never going to compete with either of them

December 27, 2015October 25, 2012 by Morgan Wick

Virtually from the moment the sports TV wars started, I have been wondering why ESPN seemed to have such a myopic fixation on NBC’s attempts to build the NBC Sports Network that it was willing to essentially give Fox rights left and right to potentially create a far more imposing competitor sooner than NBC might ever pose – especially when ESPN gave so many statements early on effectively dismissing NBC’s prospects of competing with them. Starting with the alliance for Pac-12 and Big 12 rights, continuing with Fox’s big wins of UFC and World Cup rights, up to the first rumors of the Fox Sports 1 plans, and right on through the bizarre saga of the baseball renegotiations, my bewilderment at ESPN’s game plan has grown and grown.

In retrospect, I shouldn’t have been so confused. In fact, maybe everyone should have written off NBC’s prospects of competing with ESPN from the start. Comcast’s cable operator business, seemingly the ace in the hole for carriage of all its other networks, may well be the Achilles heel that forever cripples NBC’s efforts to get any sort of head start.

What clarified this for me was a post on the Frank the Tank’s Slant blog earlier in the week (specifically the third full paragraph). Essentially, it suggests that what ESPN fears is not so much NBC as a competitor for sports rights and eyeballs as Comcast as a business partner potentially holding its own ace in the hole. ESPN really doesn’t fear any entity eating into its dominance, but what it doesn’t want in a million years is Comcast owning a sports network that might remotely be construed as anywhere close to on par with ESPN. An even remotely strong NBC Sports Network could give Comcast leverage to lower the rights fees it pays ESPN for carriage, and that could eat substantially into ESPN’s bottom line when combined with the impact of the sports network itself. ESPN may not want any real competitors to its dominance, but it really doesn’t want NBC to be one of them. It’s perfectly happy to build up Fox as its “competitor” if it means avoiding the fate a competition with NBC would entail.

I suggested that for ESPN, the smart play in the Major League Baseball negotiations was to pit NBC and Fox against one another, and that its move to grab all three of its existing primetime packages was therefore a mistake because it all but eliminated NBC from the bidding. But ESPN had a reason for its myopic focus on NBC. If it wanted to pit Fox against anybody, its first choice would be to pit it against Turner, or even CBS, before NBC. That’s exactly what it did by grabbing all three primetime packages, forcing Fox and Turner/CBS to slug it out for what initially appeared to be a single remaining package. (That ESPN didn’t come back in to grab more of the postseason when it turned out to be two packages after all remains mystifying.)

Comcast (and Cablevision, and to some extent Time Warner Cable) can leverage its cable business to build its regional sports networks. Most areas have one or two dominant cable providers, so they are primarily using regional sports networks to pry customers away from satellite companies like DirecTV, knowing they have few other options. In most cases, when there is one regional sports network in an area it develops a complete monopoly over the area’s sports teams, with the exception of team-owned networks. To my knowledge, there are only three places in the entire country where a Fox Sports network competes with a network owned by a cable operator: Los Angeles, where Fox Sports West and Prime Ticket compete with Time Warner Cable SportsNet; the South, where Fox Sports South and SportSouth compete with CSS; and Florida, where Fox Sports Florida and SunSports compete with Bright House Sports Network. But while the jury’s still out on TWC SportsNet, CSS falls far, far short of Fox’s monopoly over the South’s professional teams, with even its SEC coverage stuck behind Fox in the pecking order, and Bright House is so far further behind than that it barely even qualifies. Neither of them can use their networks to hold Fox hostage.

But when Comcast runs a national sports network, it’s competing on a completely different playing field. Its status as a cable operator becomes far less important because it must operate primarily as a media company, negotiating with other cable providers. Its goal is different as well; where a regional sports network seeks to form a monopoly over a market, the sports TV wars have all along been all about the opposite: to compete with ESPN. But it still remains a cable operator and customer of all the other sports networks as well, and the two roles must necessarily intersect. Nowhere does Comcast have so complete a monopoly that it can force favorable terms for its own sports network on anyone, because it must necessarily compete nationally, a problem numerous league-owned networks (as well as beIN Sport) have run into in recent years. Carriage on satellite providers wasn’t enough to get NFL Network on cable companies without the added carrot of RedZone, nor is carriage on some cable providers enough to get the Pac-12 Network on DirecTV. But it can do just enough to put pressure in the other direction on behalf of its cable business – but only if NBC Sports Network is already big enough to do so, and ESPN wants to make sure it never is.

If TWC SportsNet really takes off, especially if it wins Dodgers rights, it’s entirely possible it could force Fox to leave the Los Angeles market completely. Certainly whenever Comcast has moved into a market, Fox has pulled up its tent poles and fled town. When Comcast signed up with the Astros and Rockets to form CSN Houston, Fox shut down FS Houston virtually the instant its last Astros game ended. Fox also knew FSN Chicago wasn’t long for this world when the area’s teams signed up with Comcast as well. As I suggested before, Fox realizes that as a pure media company without a cable operator business, it is at an inherent disadvantage in the regional sports network market, and I think that’s why it is thinking of changing its sports strategy away from its current mix of RSNs and sport-specific networks and towards the formation of at least one general national all-sports network – and why I think it’ll cannibalize FSN’s remaining national programming to do so.

I have to imagine the NHL has to regret shacking up with NBC now, staking the future growth of the sport to Comcast’s ability to grow the NBC Sports Network at a time when that ability looked a lot bigger than it actually was. Had the NHL’s contract come due even one year later, I have no doubt it would have come crawling to Fox to take it in; as it is, it’s now stuck with NBC for the rest of the decade, at which point (assuming the Internet hasn’t rendered TV rights meaningless by then) I fully expect it to beg and plead with another entity to take it in anyway, pending the outcome of NBA negotiations and the overall course of the sports TV wars. (Having another two years on its previous NBC and Versus deals also means any customers wouldn’t have to worry about the lockout the NHL is going through right now. Just reason #2246 why Gary Bettman is clearly a mole planted by David Stern to undermine the NHL.)

This also affects how I see future contracts going down. I now suspect Turner has the lead over Comcast for whatever Thursday Night games the NFL elects to sell (though I still doubt they sell any), because if Comcast starts looking like a legitimate threat Fox and especially ESPN will go all-out to keep them down. (Fox would be the no-brainer favorite if not for its existing NFC package; as it stands I still see ESPN in third place, not that far behind Comcast.) Anyone looking for the return of “Roundball Rock” can forget about it right now, because it’s far more likely you’ll see Fox make a serious run at NBA rights than NBC, especially with NBC’s existing NHL commitments. And it’s hard for me to see a future where NBC has much of a chance to win MLS rights long-term, especially with Fox looking to complement their World Cup rights; I don’t think it’s far-fetched for Fox to beat both incumbents and rejoin MLS two years after losing those rights to NBC, especially as Fox Sports 1 wasn’t being bandied about at the time. Unless Comcast wanted to separate all its non-RSN sports properties, including the entire NBC broadcast network and stations, from at least its cable business, the NHL might remain now and forever the only thing keeping NBC Sports Network from CBSSN’s level.

FF50 Challenge Power Rankings – Week 7

October 24, 2012 by Morgan Wick

Okay, so I ended up goofing things up enough this week that the one-win teams get a one-week reprieve; we’re down to three Yahoo teams in that category anyway and that’s it. Part of it was the chaos caused by the mega-bye, part of it was everything else I was dealing with last week. And naturally, the one one-win team that gets elevated priority in the pecking order, the Shark League team, was completely undermined by Maurice Jones-Drew’s injury. We also have a second ESPN team get a tie, and naturally, it was one where I wound up leaving Jimmy Graham in the starting lineup and Brandon Pettigrew on the bench.

I’m considering switching to sorting the rankings by an index number, determined by taking the winning percentage, adding the ratio of the rank from last place over the number of teams (so last place would be considered first), and subtracting the ratio of the overall rank over the number teams (so first place would be considered first).

Rk	LW	Name	Identity	Rec	Str	Lg Rnk
1	1	The Blue Eyes	CBS 2	6-1	W 3	1^st of 12
2	3	Morgan’s Team	Fox 8	6-1	W 5	1^st of 10
3	7	Single Wing	Flea 1	6-1	W 5	2^nd of 12
4	6	Morgan’s Team	Fox 2	6-1	W 3	2^nd of 10
5	10	Team Wick	ESPN 9	5-2	W 1	1^st of 12
6	8	Morgan’s Team	Fox 6	5-2	W 1	1^st of 10
7	2	Terrible Trios	Yahoo 3	5-2	L 1	1^st of 10
8	9	Morgan’s Team	Fox 4	5-2	W 3	2^nd of 10
9	11	Morgan’s Team	Fox 1	5-2	W 2	2^nd of 10
10	5	Team Wick	ESPN 2	5-2	L 1	2^nd of 10
11	16	Team Wick	ESPN 5	5-2	W 3	3^rd of 12
12	12	Morgan’s Team	Fox 5	5-2	W 1	3^rd of 10
13	4	The Experiment	NFL 2	5-2	L 1	3^rd of 10
14	17	Team Wick	ESPN 6	4-3	W 1	3^rd of 10
15	19	Team Wick	ESPN 10	4-3	W 2	4^th of 12
16	23	Team Wick	ESPN 8	4-3	W 3	4^th of 12
17	13	morganwick	NFL 6	4-3	L 2	4^th of 10
18	25	Single Bound	Yahoo 1	4-3	W 2	4^th of 10
19	24	The Lucky Ones	Yahoo 7	4-3	W 1	4^th of 10
20	21	Morgan’s Team	Fox 7	4-3	W 1	5^th of 10
21	14	Team Wick	ESPN 3	4-3	L 1	5^th of 10
22	15	Split Backs	Flea 2	4-3	L 2	4^th of 6
23	20	Morgan’s Team	Fox 3	3-4	L 2	6^th of 10
24	18	morganwick	NFL 1	3-4	L 1	7^th of 10
25	22	Evil Twins	Yahoo 2	3-4	L 1	7^th of 10
26	28	morganwick	NFL 5	3-4	W 1	7^th of 10
27	34	morganwick	NFL 3	3-4	W 2	7^th of 10
28	31	Team Wick	ESPN 7	3-4	W 1	9^th of 12
29	35	The Green Eyes	CBS 3	3-4	W 2	10^th of 12
30	27	Team Wick	ESPN 4	2-4-1	T 1	8^th of 10
31	29	Team Wick	ESPN 1	2-4-1	L 1	8^th of 10
32	33	Fantastic Fifteen	Yahoo 4	2-5	L 1	8^th of 10
33	30	Nickel Package	Flea 5	2-5	L 2	10^th of 12
34	41	The Red Eye	CBS 1	2-5	W 1	10^th of 12
35	32	Quarters	Flea 4	2-5	L 2	7^th of 8
36	38	Headed for the End Zone	Flea 6	2-5	W 2	11^th of 12
37	26	morganwick	NFL 4	2-5	L 2	10^th of 10
38	36	All-Star Squadron	Yahoo 5	1-6	L 2	10^th of 10
39	39	Number of the Beast	Yahoo 6	1-6	L 5	10^th of 10
40	37	The Infinite	Yahoo 8	1-6	L 1	10^th of 10
41	40	Green Lantern Corps	Shark	1-6	L 4	12^th of 12
42	42	Trips Wide	Flea 3	0-6	L 6	5^th of 5

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 7

October 23, 2012 by Morgan Wick

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

Begins Sunday of Week 11
In effect during Weeks 11-17
Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
NFL schedules all games.
Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

Tentative game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-3; one of the hottest rivalries in the NFL, but the Steelers look like they might be decidedly mediocre. Still, that might be enough for the tentative game bias to sustain it, especially given the alternatives.
Likely protections: Cardinals-Falcons (FOX) and Chargers-Broncos (CBS).
Other possible games: Colts-Patriots and Eagles-Redskins are the main possibilities, but only Colts-Patriots is better than the tentative and then only marginally so. Jets-Rams is a dark horse.

Week 12 (November 25):

Tentative game: Green Bay @ NY Giants
Prospects: 4-3 v. 5-2; a pair of name teams and both over .500 to boot. Time will tell if the Packers have become suddenly mediocre, though.
Likely protections: Vikings-Bears or Rams-Cardinals if anything (FOX) and probably nothing (CBS) as Ravens-Chargers was their only real protection-worthy game and both teams have listed two protected games each, neither of which was this one.
Other possible games: Normally Thanksgiving Weekend means a paucity of good games, but here we have Seahawks-Dolphins, Ravens-Chargers, and the game Fox didn’t protect, plus Bills-Colts as a dark horse. Vikings-Bears is an especially strong game that, if it’s unprotected (a big if), just might steal the flex if the Packers continue to struggle.

Week 13 (December 2):

Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
Prospects: Very iffy at 3-3 v. 3-3, but never count out an NFC East showdown.
Likely protections: 49ers-Rams or Vikings-Packers (FOX) and Steelers-Ravens (CBS).
Other possible games: Seahawks-Bears and, if unprotected, Vikings-Packers are both waiting if Eagles-Cowboys stumbles too far. Pats-Dolphins is also strong, while Cardinals-Jets, Bengals-Chargers, and, if unprotected, 49ers-Rams are dark horses.

Week 14 (December 9):

Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
Prospects: 2-4 v. 4-3. Hard to say how much of Detroit’s record has to do with their schedule, but right now this game isn’t looking good.
Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
Other possible games: Fox’s unprotected game is the favorite; Dolphins-49ers is good but lopsided, while Ravens-Redskins and Cowboys-Bengals are dark horses.

Week 15 (December 16):

Tentative game: San Francisco @ New England
Prospects: 5-2 v. 4-3, pretty much in the same shape as Packers-Giants, replacing the Packers with the Patriots and noting that the Niners aren’t quite all the way back to being that much of a name team.
Likely protections: Broncos-Ravens (probably not), Colts-Texans, Steelers-Cowboys, or nothing (CBS) and Giants-Falcons (FOX).
Other possible games: Packers-Bears (or if it’s protected, Giants-Falcons) is in the best shape, while CBS’ potential protections are either lopsided or, in the case of Steelers-Cowboys, simply too far behind to matter, and Vikings-Rams is a dark horse.

Week 16 (December 23):

Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
Prospects: 3-3 v. 3-4; somewhat mediocre, but who knows if the Jets will be driving the Tebow bandwagon by this point.
Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
Other possible games: One of the better slates of possibilities makes for possibly the likeliest flex, with only Week 14 challenging it: Vikings-Texans, Bears-Cardinals, and 49ers-Seahawks all pit two teams above .500, waiting to pounce if either the Chargers’ or Jets’ season collapses. Redskins-Eagles and Bills-Dolphins are dark horses.

Week 17 (December 30):

Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

2012 College Football Rankings – Week 7

October 20, 2012October 19, 2012 by Morgan Wick

I put the ten worst teams in FBS at the bottom of my rankings each week in “inspiration” from ESPN’s Bottom 10, a humorous roundup of same that’s been going at least as long as I’ve been doing this. It does not take its remit seriously one bit, letting the teams themselves get overshadowed by whatever theme it’s cooked up for the week, as well as by the holder of its #5 spot, awarded to a high-profile team with any record that just took an embarrassing loss. This week, that spot was held by West Virginia, an unbeaten team that just took an admittedly-blowout road loss to a one-loss Texas Tech team. Is that really the best they could come up with?

Methinks that loss says more about Texas Tech than it says about West Virginia.

Yes, the Red Raiders’ own single loss was a blowout at the hands of Oklahoma, but even considering that I have to think the polls are vastly underrating Texas Tech. Not the C Ratings, where the Red Raiders’ big win is enough for them to plunder the #3 spot away from South Carolina, who only slips one spot after their close loss to LSU.

Still, the Mountaineers did fall all the way from #12 to out of positive B Points. But that was just a part of a larger story: while the entire rankings were shaken up last week, a number of losses by ranked teams this week results in craziness focused mainly on the lower part of the rankings, where the expectations for success lowered considerably. Had Mississippi State’s C Rating remained constant, it would have gained two spots and nuzzled up against Arizona State for #22. On the other hand, Georgia managed to fall a whopping 22 spots without even playing, after every single one of the teams they’d played lost, with only South Carolina avoiding a blowout.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1	Alabama					SEC #1		’06 Boise St.
	6-0	LW: #1	A Rat: .902	B Rating:	47.525	C Rating:	41.354	AP: 1	BCS: 1
	Do you think the Tide could beat the Cleveland Browns right now?
2	Oregon					P12 #1		’09 Boise St.
	6-0	LW: #2	A Rat: .806	B Rating:	25.048	C Rating:	21.163	AP: 2	BCS: 3
	Oregon could blow out the team immediately below and still not catch Alabama.
3	Texas Tech					B12 #1		Prncton/Yale
	5-1	LW: #17	A Rat: .630	B Rating:	21.301	C Rating:	18.648	AP: 18	BCS: 17
	The Red Raiders served the rest of the country notice just how good they can be. But the Oklahoma loss could haunt them all season.
4	South Carolina					SEC #2		BCS Title
	6-1	LW: #3	A Rat: .664	B Rating:	21.794	C Rating:	17.688	AP: 9	BCS: 7
	A devastating road loss, but they might still be better than the Gators – and have a chance to prove it this week.
5	Notre Dame							BCS Title
	6-0	LW: #4	A Rat: .772	B Rating:	19.356	C Rating:	16.612	AP: 5	BCS: 4
	Needing overtime and a controversial finish to beat Stanford doesn’t impress the C Ratings when you were already this high, and blows a chance to capitalize on the South Carolina loss. But the polls finally see how good the Godlen Domers really are.
6	Oklahoma					B12 #2		BCS Title
	4-1	LW: #16	A Rat: .599	B Rating:	18.617	C Rating:	16.442	AP: 10	BCS: 9
	From negative B Points to #6 in two weeks. After demolishing Texas and becoming the team that crushed the Red Raiders in Lubbock, I honestly think the C Rating-unfriendly schedule is the only thing keeping the Sooners from #3.
7	Ohio State					B10 #1		Probation
	7-0	LW: #5	A Rat: .679	B Rating:	16.293	C Rating:	13.253	AP: 7	BlogPoll: 10
	I’m actually a little surprised the Buckeyes didn’t fall further after a tight win over 2-4 Indiana than the two spots from Texas Tech and Oklahoma’s hard charges. Another opportunity missed.
8	Kansas State					B12 #3		BCS Title
	6-0	LW: #7	A Rat: .760	B Rating:	14.262	C Rating:	12.060	AP: 4	BCS: 4
	And if Oklahoma is as good as they look, how good must K-State be for beating them in Norman? But that was by only five, and no matter how good Iowa State is they don’t benefit much from beating them by six either.
9	Florida State					ACC #1		BCS Title
	6-1	LW: #9	A Rat: .700	B Rating:	14.589	C Rating:	11.879	AP: 12	BCS: 14
	The Seminoles put the hurt on Boston College, but they’re 1-5. A truer test will come when they visit rival Miami.
10	Florida					SEC #3		BCS Title
	6-0	LW: #6	A Rat: .759	B Rating:	14.320	C Rating:	11.801	AP: 3	BCS: 2
	The Gators don’t benefit as much as you’d think from LSU’s big win because neither it nor Florida’s original win were by margins that big. Want the #3 spot? Beat South Carolina in the Swamp.
11	Texas A&M					SEC #4		BCS Title
	5-1	LW: #11	A Rat: .594	B Rating:	11.431	C Rating:	9.253	AP: 20	BCS: 18
	The Aggies have the opposite situation as Florida State: a narrow win over a good team. LSU should serve as a benchmark of where this team really stands.
12	Oregon State					P12 #2		BCS Title
	5-0	LW: #21	A Rat: .675	B Rating:	9.663	C Rating:	7.939	AP: 8	BCS: 8
	After pulling away from BYU, Beavers fans are wondering if everyone has the wrong Oregon team going to Miami. Certainly the Civil War should be one for the ages.
13	Stanford					P12 #3		BCS Bowl
	4-2	LW: #10	A Rat: .388	B Rating:	6.140	C Rating:	5.226	AP: 22	BCS: 20
	Stanford acquitted themselves better than I thought they would against Notre Dame, but still, a loss is a loss. Time to get back on track against rival Cal.
14	Iowa State					B12 #4		BCS Bowl
	4-2	LW: #14	A Rat: .408	B Rating:	4.779	C Rating:	5.065	BCS: 24	—
	After how close they kept it against K-State, I’m actually starting to become mystified at the lack of love for the Cyclones. If being ranked in the BCS despite a smattering of remaining poll votes doesn’t wake people up, a big win in Stillwater will.
15	Cincinnati					BST #1		BCS Title
	5-0	LW: #13	A Rat: .790	B Rating:	7.058	C Rating:	4.856	AP: 21	BCS: 21
	Games against FCS schools are akin to bye weeks. But a road trip to Toledo is definitely a trap game.
16	LSU					SEC #5		BCS Title
	6-1	LW: #18	A Rat: .580	B Rating:	6.767	C Rating:	4.069	AP: 6	BCS: 6
	A big win, but a narrow one at home. A road trip to College Station will show where this team really stands.
17	Rutgers					BST #2		BCS Title
	6-0	LW: #22	A Rat: .782	B Rating:	7.396	C Rating:	3.974	AP: 19	BCS: 15
	So many teams took bad losses in this range that Rutgers moved up a fraction of a point – good enough for five spots.
18	North Carolina					ACC #2		BCS Bowl
	5-2	LW: #28	A Rat: .517	B Rating:	6.159	C Rating:	3.450	—	—
	Both of UNC’s losses were on the road by five or less, and the five came to an unbeaten team. If they beat Duke, the way could be clear to win the Coastal.
19	Toledo					MAC #1		MAC Title
	6-1	LW: #19	A Rat: .535	B Rating:	6.388	C Rating:	3.036	—	—
	Tight wins never penalize you much, even against winless Eastern Michigan, and especially with enough losses by teams ahead of them that Toledo loses close to seven-tenths of a point and stays put.
20	Texas					B12 #5		BCS Bowl
	4-2	LW: #8	A Rat: .415	B Rating:	3.906	C Rating:	3.021	BCS: 25	Harris: 25
	Where was the Longhorn team that started the season in the top 5 of the C Ratings? Now Texas is third best in their own state, which should leave them very afraid.
21	Penn State					B10 #2		Probation
	4-2	LW: #26	A Rat: .437	B Rating:	5.164	C Rating:	2.318	—	—
	Could the Big Ten’s best two teams both be ineligible for the Rose Bowl? Under the circumstances, Penn State’s first full season without Joe Paterno is going amazingly well, with a win over then-unbeaten Northwestern under their belt.
22	Arizona State					P12 #4		BCS Title
	5-1	LW: #20	A Rat: .644	B Rating:	6.179	C Rating:	2.287	Coaches: 24	Harris: 24
	No credit for blowing out a godawful Colorado team. Expect them to fall off after getting crushed by Oregon.
23	Clemson					ACC #3		BCS Title
	5-1	LW: #27	A Rat: .555	B Rating:	4.167	C Rating:	2.226	AP: 14	BCS: 19
	How crazy are the bottom of the rankings? Clemson moves up a full four spots despite not even playing.
24	Utah State					WAC #1		WAC Title
	5-2	LW: #47	A Rat: .447	B Rating:	4.518	C Rating:	2.208	—	—
	Both losses were on the road to good-to-decent teams by close margins, and Utah’s the only other team they haven’t beaten by double digits. After a 22-point road win over San Jose State, notice has been served on the remnants of the WAC.
25	USC					P12 #5		BCS Title
	5-1	LW: #52	A Rat: .564	B Rating:	4.642	C Rating:	1.946	AP: 11	BCS: 10
	Somehow USC rocketed up the rankings despite a modest 10-point road win over 3-3 Washington and most of the teams they played losing. Guess that’s what Cal’s blowout of Washington State will do for you.

37 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #26 Mississippi State (was #25), #29 Louisiana Tech (was #24), #37 Georgia (was #15), #41 West Virginia (was #12), #54 Baylor (was #23)

Unbeaten teams not on Top 25: #26 Mississippi State, #30 Louisville, #39 Ohio (all in positive B Points, Ohio not in positive C)

Rest of Watch List (all 5-1 unless otherwise noted): #27 Northern Illinois (6-1), #28 TCU*, #29 Louisiana Tech, #31 Boise State, #32 Oklahoma State (3-2), #33 Michigan (4-2), #34 Nevada (6-1), #35 Western Kentucky, #36 Wisconsin (5-2), #37 Georgia, #38 Iowa (4-2)

Other Positive B Ratings: #40 Northwestern* (6-1), #42 Louisiana-Monroe (4-2), #44 Fresno State (4-3) (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #41 West Virginia, #45 Michigan State, #46 Pittsburgh, #54 Baylor, #55 BYU, #59 San Jose State, #63 Texas-San Antonio

Bottom 10: #115 UTEP, #116 Akron, #117 Colorado State, #118 Eastern Michigan, #119 Illinois, #120 Colorado, #121 Idaho, #122 Tulane, #123 Hawaii, #124 Massachusetts

Best game of week: South Carolina @ Florida, 3:30pm ET, CBS

The latest on a potential suite of all-sports Fox networks

December 27, 2015October 18, 2012 by Morgan Wick

So, I said I was going to lay out how a trio of all-sports Fox networks would work, only to find that for the most part, it works with plenty of space to preserve non-live programming, even if you kill FCS. There was one weekend with a multitude of college football games clashing with a UFC event, Premier League soccer, baseball, AND the NASCAR Truck Series, but that’s the exception.

On the other hand, it’s now looking very, very likely to happen, because the English Premier League bidding has attracted as many as five bidders, with a surprising sixth kicking the tires but dropping out. If any but Fox (or marketing firm IMG) win, that is probably the death knell for Fox Soccer. ESPN, NBC, and beIN Sport would all love to be the ones to drive a stake into Fox’s heart, even if they don’t actually pull it off. Oddly, reportedly Discovery Networks, the group mostly known for its networks filled with documentaries (even if verging into the sensationalistic or “reality” these days), was kicking the tires on adding games to its Velocity network, the former HD Theater, one of a number of former HD channels from when HD was a novelty (existing more to show off the technology and lump together several networks’ programming for HD simulcasts than anything else) that now have very little reason to exist, but apparently decided against it.

I’m not surprised NBC didn’t put up much of a fight; I actually hadn’t considered them much of a player to begin with, and for all the pub the Premier League has gotten, F1 might actually net them comparable ratings. On the other hand, I don’t buy the argument that beIN Sport actually picked up too many rights to add the Premier League to that too; I think they’ve shown plenty of signs that they’re willing to launch a second network in each language if circumstances warrant. ESPN would love to get the rights but I think ultimately if they do, they sublicence a number of games to Fox or NBC. My hunch is that it’s a two-horse race between Fox and beIN Sport, with ESPN running a close third that might ultimately form a joint bid with one of the others (more likely Fox). Normally, I might call Fox the favorite, but as always, never underestimate the power of Arab oil money; at the very least, a Fox-ESPN joint bid might be necessary just to fend off beIN Sport.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 6

October 17, 2012 by Morgan Wick

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

Begins Sunday of Week 11
In effect during Weeks 11-17
Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
NFL schedules all games.
Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

Tentative game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Prospects: 5-1 v. 2-3; one of the hottest rivalries in the NFL, but the Steelers had better get off the schnide right quick if they don’t want it to become lopsided.
Likely protections: Cardinals-Falcons (FOX) and Chargers-Broncos (CBS).
Other possible games: Colts-Patriots, Eagles-Redskins, Packers-Lions, and Jets-Rams are the main possibilities, but all are iffy at best; Eagles-Redskins and Jets-Rams are the best ones at 3-3 v. 3-3, and even if the Steelers just continue to hover near .500 that won’t overcome the tentative game bias. (Unless maybe Tim Tebow is starting under center…)

Week 12 (November 25):

Tentative game: Green Bay @ NY Giants
Prospects: 3-3 v. 4-2; a pair of name teams, but both look a little questionable so far, especially the Packers.
Likely protections: Vikings-Bears or Rams-Cardinals if anything (FOX) and probably nothing (CBS) as Ravens-Chargers was their only real protection-worthy game and both teams have listed two protected games each, neither of which was this one.
Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend, paucity of good games, though Vikings-Bears is actually a rare matchup of two teams above .500 (assuming it was left unprotected of course). Besides Ravens-Chargers and whatever game Fox doesn’t protect, Seahawks-Dolphins is a possibility, and Bills-Colts is a dark horse.

Week 13 (December 2):

Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
Prospects: Very iffy at 3-3 v. 2-3, but never count out an NFC East showdown.
Likely protections: 49ers-Rams or Vikings-Packers (FOX) and Steelers-Ravens (CBS).
Other possible games: Seahawks-Bears might actually be stronger than either of Fox’s potentially protected games (leaving aside the Hawks’ iffy national name), and Cardinals-Jets is about as strong. Pats-Dolphins, Bucs-Broncos, and Bengals-Chargers are all dark horses.

Week 14 (December 9):

Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
Prospects: 2-3 v. 3-3. I’m going to take Bill Simmons’ advice and see if the Lions “are who we thought they were”, as Dennis Green would say; as it stands this isn’t really any worse than some of the other tentatives.
Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
Other possible games: Fox’s unprotected game is the favorite, followed by Ravens-Redskins and Dolphins-49ers. Cowboys-Bengals, Rams-Bills, and Eagles-Bucs are dark horses.

Week 15 (December 16):

Tentative game: San Francisco @ New England
Prospects: 4-2 v. 3-3, which might still make it the tentative game in the best shape, or at least tied with Packers-Giants. Every single tentative has a team at 3-3 or 2-3; I wouldn’t be surprised by two flexes this year, or none at all. That’s how crazy the league is this year.
Likely protections: Broncos-Ravens (probably not), Colts-Texans, Steelers-Cowboys, or nothing (CBS) and Giants-Falcons (FOX).
Other possible games: Vikings-Rams, Packers-Bears, Seahawks-Bills, and the games CBS doesn’t protect, with Lions-Cardinals as a dark horse.

Week 16 (December 23):

Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
Prospects: 3-3 v. 3-3; somewhat mediocre, but who knows if the Jets will be driving the Tebow bandwagon by this point.
Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
Other possible games: One of the better slates of possibilities: Vikings-Texans, Bears-Cardinals, and 49ers-Seahawks all pit two teams above .500, waiting to pounce if either the Chargers’ or Jets’ season collapses. Redskins-Eagles and Bills-Dolphins are outside possibilities, while Rams-Bucs is a very dark horse.

Week 17 (December 30):

Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

FF50 Challenge Power Rankings – Week 6

October 16, 2012 by Morgan Wick

So I eventually did decide to go the no-frills route in doing the power rankings, and only do that information that’s easy for me to collect in the process of resetting the rankings anyway.

I’m starting to reach the point of the season where I’m more comfortable with abandoning teams. So my one remaining winless team, Trips Wide, will be abandoned after this week. Incredibly, no matter how low it goes it’s still assured of a playoff spot, because Fleaflicker allows you to run half-full leagues even with horribly unbalanced divisions, including, in my case, a division with exactly one team – not even when it’s a two-division league that could just be consolidated into one. Seriously, Fleaflicker, WTF? With six remaining 1-5 teams, including the Shark League team, any of the other 1-5 teams who remain so after next week and are behind the Shark team in the power rankings will be abandoned.

Rk	LW	Name	Identity	Rec	Str	Lg Rnk
1	6	The Blue Eyes	CBS 2	5-1	W 2	1^st of 12
2	2	Terrible Trios	Yahoo 3	5-1	W 2	1^st of 10
3	8	Morgan’s Team	Fox 8	5-1	W 4	1^st of 10
4	3	The Experiment	NFL 2	5-1	W 4	1^st of 10
5	12	Team Wick	ESPN 2	5-1	W 2	1^st of 10
6	11	Morgan’s Team	Fox 2	5-1	W 2	2^nd of 10
7	14	Single Wing	Flea 1	5-1	W 4	3^rd of 12
8	1	Morgan’s Team	Fox 6	4-2	L 1	2^nd of 10
9	15	Morgan’s Team	Fox 4	4-2	W 2	2^nd of 10
10	5	Team Wick	ESPN 9	4-2	L 1	3^rd of 12
11	18	Morgan’s Team	Fox 1	4-2	W 1	3^rd of 10
12	7	Morgan’s Team	Fox 5	4-2	L 1	3^rd of 10
13	9	morganwick	NFL 6	4-2	L 1	3^rd of 10
14	19	Team Wick	ESPN 3	4-2	W 2	3^rd of 10
15	4	Split Backs	Flea 2	4-2	L 1	2^nd of 6
16	21	Team Wick	ESPN 5	4-2	W 2	4^th of 12
17	16	Team Wick	ESPN 6	3-3	L 1	3^rd of 10
18	24	morganwick	NFL 1	3-3	W 1	4^th of 10
19	20	Team Wick	ESPN 10	3-3	W 1	5^th of 12
20	17	Morgan’s Team	Fox 3	3-3	L 1	5^th of 10
21	10	Morgan’s Team	Fox 7	3-3	L 1	5^th of 10
22	23	Evil Twins	Yahoo 2	3-3	W 1	5^th of 10
23	29	Team Wick	ESPN 8	3-3	W 2	7^th of 12
24	13	The Lucky Ones	Yahoo 7	3-3	L 1	6^th of 10
25	30	Single Bound	Yahoo 1	3-3	W 1	6^th of 10
26	25	morganwick	NFL 4	2-4	L 1	6^th of 10
27	31	Team Wick	ESPN 4	2-4	W 1	7^th of 10
28	26	morganwick	NFL 5	2-4	L 3	7^th of 10
29	32	Team Wick	ESPN 1	2-3-1	W 2	8^th of 10
30	22	Nickel Package	Flea 5	2-4	L 1	9^th of 12
31	28	Team Wick	ESPN 7	2-4	L 1	9^th of 12
32	27	Quarters	Flea 4	2-4	L 1	6^th of 8
33	34	Fantastic Fifteen	Yahoo 4	2-4	W 1	8^th of 10
34	37	morganwick	NFL 3	2-4	W 1	9^th of 10
35	39	The Green Eyes	CBS 3	2-4	W 1	11^th of 12
36	33	All-Star Squadron	Yahoo 5	1-5	L 1	9^th of 10
37	41	The Infinite	Yahoo 8	1-5	W 1	9^th of 10
38	42	Headed for the End Zone	Flea 6	1-5	W 1	11^th of 12
39	35	Number of the Beast	Yahoo 6	1-5	L 4	10^th of 10
40	36	Green Lantern Corps	Shark	1-5	L 3	12^th of 12
41	38	The Red Eye	CBS 1	1-5	L 3	12^th of 12
42	40	Trips Wide	Flea 3	0-5	L 5	5^th of 5

A Closer Look at Fox’s All-Sports Network Plans

December 27, 2015October 15, 2012 by Morgan Wick

Two motorsports TV contracts were signed over the weekend that continue to firm up and clarify Fox’s plans to start an all-sports network.

First, NBC signed a deal with Formula 1, moving those races off Speed; among other things, only four races will air on broadcast, meaning unlike Fox, NBC could end up tape delaying as few as one race all year (the other three being in Canada, Texas, and Brazil). While it adds good programming to NBC Sports Network (programming that complements the existing IndyCar contract), it’s hard not to see this story as really being about Fox clearing motorsports inventory off of Speed to prepare it for a transition to an all-sports network. This despite the fact that F1 is probably Speed’s best non-NASCAR programming and generally only takes up space on the Speed schedule late at night when there’s nothing else on; even conflicts with international soccer are surprisingly minimal.

There are many ways in which the Fox network still feels a lot less mature than its older competitors, and sports are one of the more subtle ones. NBC and CBS both have all sorts of niche sports dotting their weekends on top of all the more prominent sports they’re known for, and even ABC still has an interesting variety of sports dotting its schedule. For the most part, until recently Fox Sports pretty much consisted of football, baseball, and NASCAR, and that’s it. They’ve added college football and UFC, not to mention the odd soccer game, but before that Formula 1, despite the tape delays, was the closest thing to one of those niche, “Wide World of Sports”-esque sports that Fox had. Now it’s leaving, and there aren’t more than two or three live soccer games on Fox all year. I hope Fox doesn’t neglect its broadcast network as it builds an all-sports network like ABC had; it may be all the more critical in Fox’s case than any other that an increased emphasis on sports have spillover effects on the broadcast network. (And Fox’s college football coverage doesn’t seem quite up to the snuff of the established broadcasters to me.)

Perhaps more illuminating, even critical, to Fox’s network plans is its long-rumored early renewal with NASCAR. The main reason Fox wanted to renew this deal early was so it could clarify what a Fox Sports network would be required to broadcast, and nothing in this deal is tied to a specific network, allowing Fox to move some Sprint Cup points races to Speed whether it becomes a general all-sports network or not. Fox remains the broadcaster for the entire Camping World Truck Series season, and at least for now, doesn’t pick up any Nationwide Series rights. For a Fox Sports network, Fox picked up rights that will allow it to have a nightly show devoted to NASCAR news, “NASCAR-branded pre- and post-race shows”, and the ability to re-air races for 24 hours. While I wonder how wide-ranging Fox’s ability to have on-track and pre- and post-race shows is, Fox also retained the rights to show practice and qualifying… for the races whose rights it controls.

While Fox doesn’t appear to have picked up any rights it doesn’t already have, and so might end up picking up more rights later, that may indicate that Fox’s network prospects may now hinge on what happens with the rest of the contract, and whether or not someone else is willing to take on practice and qualifying rights for every single race they show, without being able to pawn them off to Fox. Certainly Fox has enough rights now to keep Speed a motorsports-focused network if it so chooses. ESPN already shows a considerable amount of practice and qualifying for its races, but it’s not universal and one wonders how much it’ll be willing to fit more onto its crowded schedule. NBC Sports Network would love to take it on just to fill time on the schedule, but given its existing IndyCar commitment (and potential hockey playoff conflicts) I wonder how much NBC would want to take on the Nationwide Series. And while Turner, which currently outsources all its practice and qualifying to Speed, would not want to add such fairly low-rated programming to TNT, such programming (backed by Nationwide Series races) could help it build the sports profile of truTV, but may represent too much of a commitment to sports for Turner to be comfortable with it, especially given their lack of success so far.

But perhaps Fox’s network plans extend beyond a single network to a complete revamping of the structure of its sports properties, one with potential knock-on effects spreading far and wide, and perhaps already doing so.

I have referred only to an “all-sports network” of Fox’s because I don’t like the reported tentative name of the network, “Fox Sports 1”. Part of the reason for that is the lack of a Fox Sports 2, but Fox could certainly relaunch one of its other networks to fit the bill, especially in the case that Fox Soccer loses its bread and butter… or completely overturn its specialty-network strategy and take on ESPN’s family of networks head-on. Ken Fang of Fang’s Bites raised this possibility in a post last week, suggesting that Fox might not only re-launch Speed as Fox Sports 1, but at the same time relaunch Fox Soccer as Fox Sports 2 and Fuel as Fox Sports 3. (I doubt he has any evidence that this is what’s actually going to happen, but speculation is fun, so we’ll go ahead and play his game.)

I have a number of problems with his specific scenario, largely because I didn’t really think of Fuel as a “sports” network in the same sense before it picked up UFC rights, but rather as a male-focused network with an emphasis on extreme sports, but in an even broader sense, he seems to think that such a change would amount to little more than a change of name in the case of Fox Soccer and Fuel; most soccer programming would remain on Fox Soccer with little more than what FX already has on FS1 and none on FS3 (and little to no non-soccer programming, to the point that Fox Soccer Plus would get the absurd name of “Fox Sports 2 Plus”), and all of Fuel’s programming would remain there with little to no programming from the other networks and UFC programming on FS1 and FS3 but not FS2. What’s the point of rebranding the networks in that case? Would Fox really want a collection of straight numbered networks with such a clear hierarchy yet with such targeted emphasis outside the main network? I guess it’s possible, but so far as I can tell from Wikipedia, it doesn’t fit News Corporation’s best practices with Sky Sports in the UK and Fox Sports in Australia.

Let’s think bigger, and fit a number of other developments into this picture. If this is the direction Fox wants to go, here’s what I see happening:

Speed becomes FS1, Fox Soccer becomes FS2, Fuel becomes FS3. We don’t need to change Fox Soccer Plus’ new name much, either from its existing name or from Fang’s proposal; it becomes Fox Sports Plus, and keeps most of its existing programming, with some use as an overflow channel for stuff Fox has the rights to but can’t cram onto three channels.
FS2 remains more soccer-focused than the other two, but a lot of soccer programming leaks onto the other two networks; at the very least, FS1 picks up every Premier League match Fox has the rights to pitting Manchester United against Arsenal, Chelsea, or Manchester City not on the main network. Fox also revamps its scheme for airing UEFA Champions League matches, with FS1 and FS3 joining FS2 and FS+ in airing games every matchday – half of all the games played at a time. FX wasn’t airing games regularly partly to increase the profile of Fox Soccer but also because it had other things to do. FS1 doesn’t; I could see it taking on more Champions League games even if Fox Soccer isn’t rebranded. (One factor that could play into the chances of Fox Soccer being rebranded is the loss of Serie A and Ligue 1 to beIN Sport and the threat of more; all of what Fox Soccer has left is either programming that could almost move to FS1 full-time, or stuff that doesn’t attract any eyeballs at all.)
UFC broadcasts are distributed among Fox, FS1, FS2, and FS3 based on the quality of the card and what each network is doing at any given time, all branded as “UFC on Fox”. FS3 continues to show prelims for Fox and FS1 cards, with PPV prelims airing on FS1 or FS2.
Most Truck Series races, as well as Sprint Cup practice and qualifying, move off their current network and onto FS2 and FS3.
Here comes the big part: the final nail is driven into the coffin of Rupert Murdoch’s original dream of using FSN to compete with ESPN. Especially if Dan Patrick decides to move to NBC. Only fitting that it comes when Fox actually does launch an ESPN-alike, right? We’ve been seeing the vestiges of this start to slip away ever since the start of the sports TV wars, to the point that despite the return of strong Fox branding to FSN national programming, FSN itself hasn’t returned with it, only being referred to as the “Fox Sports Networks”.
Earlier this year Comcast SportsNet, always iffy with its carriage of FSN programming, dropped it entirely; originally it seemed that this was a temporary hiccup, but right now it seems Fox has given up the ghost, finding over-the-air stations to air FSN programming in Comcast markets. CSN may be setting itself up to air its own national programming, especially if it wins Big East rights, but even Root Sports, still airing FSN programming, has been airing Big Sky football games “nationally” on its three networks. Fox just doesn’t have the hegemony over the regional sports network landscape that it used to, and Fox doesn’t even need it anymore to distribute sports that don’t fit the other networks or that need a more national audience without being on FX. Plus, it’s lost Pac-12 rights to the Pac-12 Network, leaving it with just the Big 12 and Conference USA, and even conferences like the SEC and ACC that haven’t launched networks have sold packages to regional sports networks. College sports on regional sports networks have effectively become just as regional as everything else.

Thus, as big a reason as the threat of beIN Sport to relaunch multiple networks is the desire to bail on the last vestiges of the FSN concept and move its bigger games to FS1, which should also provide plenty of inventory for FS2 once the soccer games end as well, with FS3 able to chip in in a pinch.
Along with the shutdown of the national FSN concept, Fox also shuts down its “that exists?” Fox College Sports enterprise, using the networks to goad cable companies into increasing carriage of FS2, FS3, and possibly FS+. FCS-exclusive games would move into the few remaining open spots on FS2, with the rest on FS3, FS+, and other platforms. Incidentally, I see a big shakeup in the TV rights for the third-tier college basketball postseason tournaments soon as the sports TV wars affect them; with HDNet’s rebrand into AXS TV, I see them dropping the CBI soon, and if Fox shuts down FCS that means they need to find a place for the CIT. When the dust settles, both tournaments will end up somehow distributed between NBC Sports Network, CBS Sports Network, and Fox; I see one on NBCSN and one on Fox, but it may not be the CBI on NBCSN and the CIT on Fox.

Later in the week I’ll take a look at what this might look like in practice.

					Sport-Specific Networks
10.5	13.5	7	5.5	1	1.5

2012 College Football Rankings – Week 6

October 13, 2012October 12, 2012 by Morgan Wick

After a week where a series of top-ten losses have shaken up the rankings, Alabama and Oregon had better watch out. South Carolina has thrown its hat into the national championship ring.

The Fighting Steve Spurriers waltzed into a matchup with a Georgia team that looked to be on the same level as them, and they didn’t even make it close. The Gamecocks’ utter demolition of the Bulldogs has caused the entire country to stand up and take notice, as they ratchet up into the #3 spot in both the polls and the C Ratings. If last week, which also saw LSU finally lose to Florida, didn’t count, this week will see the official passing of the torch for the title of biggest challenger to Alabama’s SEC throne when South Carolina takes on LSU. And from there? Florida the following week is their biggest obstacle to a showdown with Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, which could once again serve as a de facto semifinal.

1	Alabama					SEC #1		’06 Boise St.
	5-0	LW: #1	A Rat: .906	B Rating:	34.856	C Rating:	30.170	AP: 1	Coaches: 1
	Only Alabama could add four points to their rating without even playing.
2	Oregon					P12 #1		’09 Boise St.
	6-0	LW: #2	A Rat: .806	B Rating:	27.648	C Rating:	23.878	AP: 2	Coaches: 2
	The Ducks had little trouble with Washington, but Arizona State will be no pushover.
3	South Carolina					SEC #2		BCS Title
	6-0	LW: #7	A Rat: .828	B Rating:	26.894	C Rating:	23.079	AP: 3	Coaches: 3
	Sure a bunch of teams ahead of them lost, but the Gamecocks are determined to prove their bona fides with one game down in the meat of their schedule.
4	Notre Dame							BCS Title
	5-0	LW: #13	A Rat: .827	B Rating:	21.308	C Rating:	18.392	AP: 7	Coaches: 7
	They’re ba-a-a-a-ack. After years of irrelevance, the Golden Domers’ shellacking of Miami to give the Hurricanes their second loss should prove their national championship bona fides. Might a similar squash of Stanford drive the point home?
5	Ohio State					B10 #1		Probation
	6-0	LW: #11	A Rat: .704	B Rating:	16.838	C Rating:	14.259	AP: 8	BlogPoll: 8
	At least USC’s bowl-ineligibility only screwed up the Pac-12 title game. After the way they handled Nebraska, the Buckeyes look like they might have been a national championship contender.
6	Florida					SEC #3		BCS Title
	5-0	LW: #10	A Rat: .766	B Rating:	12.966	C Rating:	11.433	AP: 4	Coaches: 6
	Florida didn’t quite put the hurt on LSU that South Carolina put on Georgia, but they impressed the country none the less. Of course, they’ll settle who’s really #2 in the SEC in two weeks.
7	Kansas State					B12 #1		BCS Title
	5-0	LW: #6	A Rat: .790	B Rating:	13.798	C Rating:	11.282	AP: 6	Coaches: 5
	Kansas is a pretty bad team, so the Wildcats don’t benefit as much as the SEC teams, but they still did better than their Big 12 compadres.
8	Texas					B12 #2		BCS Title
	4-1	LW: #4	A Rat: .570	B Rating:	12.860	C Rating:	10.898	AP: 15	Coaches: 15
	The first loss is always the hardest, but West Virginia, though overrated by the polls, is still a good team. Now comes a Red River Rivalry with some oomph.
9	Florida State					ACC #1		BCS Title
	5-1	LW: #5	A Rat: .665	B Rating:	12.478	C Rating:	10.383	AP: 12	Coaches: 11
	On the other hand, the nature of B Points is that you’re never penalized too much for losing close no matter who it’s to. The way is still clear to dominate the conference.
10	Stanford					P12 #2		BCS Title
	4-1	LW: #12	A Rat: .479	B Rating:	9.447	C Rating:	8.180	AP: 17	Coaches: 17
	Stanford moves up almost by default despite needing overtime to beat Arizona at home. Be very afraid of their prospects in South Bend.
11	Texas A&M					SEC #3		BCS Bowl
	4-1	LW: #27	A Rat: .601	B Rating:	9.769	C Rating:	7.495	AP: 22	Coaches: 21
	Why does A&M shoot up the rankings after a narrow win over 3-3 Ole Miss? Perhaps it’s the cumulative effect of Arkansas’ first win and Florida’s big win. SMU did its part too.
12	West Virginia					B12 #3		Prncton/Yale
	5-0	LW: #14	A Rat: .671	B Rating:	7.787	C Rating:	6.936	AP: 5	Coaches: 4
	Credit for beating a good team, but it was by only three. If you want to impress the C Ratings, put the hurt on Texas Tech this week.
13	Cincinnati					BST #1		BCS Title
	4-0	LW: #17	A Rat: .780	B Rating:	8.895	C Rating:	6.851	AP: 21	Coaches: 20
	Cincinnati scored more points than they have all season in demolishing Miami (OH). The rest of the Big East should be on notice.
14	Iowa State					B12 #4		BCS Title
	4-1	LW: #19	A Rat: .525	B Rating:	6.600	C Rating:	6.090	Coaches: 25	Harris: 25
	People are, belatedly, starting to realize the Cyclones are for real after a two-touchdown win over TCU. But Kansas State will be their biggest test yet.
15	Georgia					SEC #4		BCS Title
	5-1	LW: #9	A Rat: .550	B Rating:	7.233	C Rating:	5.618	AP: 14	Coaches: 12
	Georgia came out with the short end of the stick after a trip to Columbia. But Kentucky should help them get back on track.
16	Oklahoma*					B12 #5		BCS Title
	3-1	LW: #49	A Rat: .546	B Rating:	7.142	C Rating:	5.606	AP: 13	Coaches: 10
	Oklahoma just didn’t have the points to get anywhere, playing a I-AA school and taking two weeks off, but demolishing Texas Tech was just what they needed to prove their bona fides and spice up the Red River Rivalry.
17	Texas Tech					B12 #6		BCS Title
	4-1	LW: #3	A Rat: .588	B Rating:	7.251	C Rating:	5.484	—	—
	Texas Tech got humbled by Oklahoma – and now the Heisman front-runner is coming to Lubbock.
18	LSU					SEC #5		BCS Title
	5-1	LW: #8	A Rat: .582	B Rating:	8.388	C Rating:	5.404	AP: 9	Coaches: 8
	And now the chickens come home to roost on LSU’s weak early-season performances. And to make matters worse, South Carolina is out to prove they really are the third-best team in the country.
19	Toledo					MAC #1		MAC Title
	5-1	LW: #22	A Rat: .530	B Rating:	6.073	C Rating:	3.722	—	—
	Ohio continues to get all the pub, but Toledo aren’t the ones escaping by a touchdown over a 1-4 team; they’re the ones demolishing the Directional Michigan schools.
20	Arizona State					P12 #3		BCS Title
	4-1	LW: #15	A Rat: .609	B Rating:	5.471	C Rating:	3.248	—	—
	Idle hands compounded by losses by teams they played. Hopefully Colorado was a suitable tune-up for Oregon.
21	Oregon State					P12 #4		BCS Title
	4-0	LW: #18	A Rat: .665	B Rating:	4.220	C Rating:	3.083	AP: 10	Coaches: 14
	I’m a little more worried than the polls about how much trouble the Beavers had with 2-4 Washington State. Better get back on track for a road trip to BYU.
22	Rutgers					BST #2		BCS Title
	5-0	LW: #38	A Rat: .803	B Rating:	7.098	C Rating:	3.062	AP: 20	Coaches: 19
	The polls have Rutgers ahead of Cincinnati, but Rutgers hasn’t beaten an FCS opponent by more than 16, which Cincy has done twice.
23	Baylor					B12 #7		BCS Title
	3-1	LW: #33	A Rat: .480	B Rating:	3.716	C Rating:	2.631	—	—
	Baylor moves up despite idle hands, doubtless because of the effect of WVU’s big win. They’re knocking on the door of nearly every poll, and can become ranked again by beating TCU.
24	Louisiana Tech					WAC #1		BCS Bowl
	5-0	LW: #20	A Rat: .660	B Rating:	6.527	C Rating:	2.384	AP: 23	Coaches: 24
	Sure they blew out UNLV, but it was UNLV. Against Texas A&M, they can prove their bona fides and arrest the slide, or take their first loss.
25	Mississippi State					SEC #6		BCS Title
	5-0	LW: #25	A Rat: .783	B Rating:	4.237	C Rating:	2.284	AP: 19	Coaches: 18
	13-point win over 1-5 Kentucky means Mississippi State remains at #25 for the third straight week.

38 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #27 Clemson (was #16), #31 Ohio (was #24), #46 Northwestern (was #23), #52 TCU (was #21)

Unbeaten teams not on Top 25: #31 Ohio, #38 Louisville, #44 Texas-San Antonio (all in positive B Points, Texas-San Antonio not in positive C)

Rest of Watch List: #26 Penn State (4-2), #27 Clemson (5-1), #28 North Carolina (4-2), #29 Northern Illinois (5-1), #30 Oklahoma State (2-2), #32 Michigan* (3-2), #33 USC (4-1), #34 Fresno State (4-2), #35 San Jose State (4-1), #36 Iowa (3-2), #37 Boise State (4-1)

Other Positive B Ratings (all 4-2 unless otherwise noted): #39 Michigan State, #40 Nevada (5-1), #41 Western Kentucky (5-1), #42 Pittsburgh (2-3), #43 BYU, #45 Louisiana-Monroe* (3-2), #47 Utah State, #49 Wisconsin* (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #46 Northwestern, #48 Tennessee, #52 TCU, #54 Nebraska, #55 Middle Tennessee State, #70 UCLA, #80 Purdue

Bottom 10: #115 Virginia, #116 UTEP, #117 Colorado, #118 Southern Miss, #119 Eastern Michigan, #120 Akron, #121 Idaho, #122 Hawaii, #123 Tulane, #124 Massachusetts

Best game of week: Stanford @ Notre Dame, 3:30pm ET, NBC