A Miniature Preview of the Divisional Games

All games are listed with their respective median expected scores.

Saints 25½-21½ 49ers
Fox, Saturday 4:30pm ET, announcers: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa
Most people still haven’t seen enough of the Niners to trust them enough, but the Saints are playing better than they have been all season. Then again, they’ve always been a different team at home than on the road; only time will tell if the Niners have the defense to stop Drew Brees and Co.

Broncos 18½-32 Patriots
CBS, Saturday 8pm ET, announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
If I was a betting man, I’d put good money on the Broncos, and maybe put a little on the under as well. Forget about Tebow for a second. The Pats’ defense… isn’t that great, while the Broncos have been winning with their defense. Even if you don’t think the Broncos are going to win, that MXS doesn’t make much sense to me, especially if you think what we saw last week from Tebow is a sign he’s becoming an actual quarterback.

Texans 14¼-21¾ Ravens
CBS, Sunday 1pm ET, announcers: Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf
That’s one of the lower MXS scores I’ve seen all season (though not the lowest of the playoffs – Denver had an MXS of 13 for their game with the Steelers). I know the Ravens have a vaunted defense, but the Texans offense isn’t chopped liver, even with T.J. Yates as their quarterback. Despite how well the Texans played all year, this game has the feel of the Texans being the sacrificial lamb to allow the Ravens to move on in a game no one will watch, but if I was a betting man, I’d split the Texans with the over, with more money on the over.

Giants 22¾-30¼ Packers
Fox, Sunday 4:30pm ET, announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver, Chris Myers
The Giants are on such a winning streak, looked so dominant against the Falcons, and looked so good against the Packers that people have forgotten that they needed to beat the Cowboys the last week of the regular season to make the playoffs at 9-7 and are talking about them maybe possibly giving the Packers a hard time if not upsetting them. Actually, people have kind of forgotten that the Packers almost went undefeated. Really, people tend to forget everything about the regular season once the playoffs start.

What the New York City Marathon’s new TV deal says about the sports TV wars

You probably don’t care all that much about the New York City Marathon, but its recent deal with ESPN says a lot as we approach the one-year anniversary of the start of the Wars.

Previously, the New York City Marathon had aired on Universal Sports, a network most people probably haven’t heard of, and WNBC-TV in New York, with NBC airing edited highlights later. It’s quite understandable that the Marathon would want a network that could give it a truly national audience (especially with Universal Sports losing a lot of households at the start of the year as it transitioned away from airing on NBC stations’ digital feeds), but that didn’t necessarily mean leaving NBC, now that NBC has the NBC Sports Network in the fold.

I don’t know if NBCSN had other plans for that day, but it still shows that NBC has a long way to go to prove that it’s a viable platform for smaller events on par with even ESPN2.

Sport-Specific Networks
6 5.5 4.5 2.5 0 1.5

It’s the MorganWick.com National Championship Pregame Show!

I’m frantically running around trying to make sure I have classes for the coming quarter (as in, the quarter that’s almost a week old already), so I only have one thing to say about the national championship game, which I won’t be watching.

The MXS for the game is Alabama 21¾-19¾. No, I have no idea why Alabama is favored when LSU won the first game on Alabama’s home turf and is playing closer to home.

Final college football rankings coming Tuesday, hopefully, though I wouldn’t bet on it.

Predictions for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2012

The Pro Football Hall of Fame’s selections are performed by a panel of 44 leading NFL media members including representatives of all 32 NFL teams, a representative of the Pro Football Writers of America, and 11 at-large writers.

The panel has selected a list of 15 finalists from the modern era, defined as playing all or part of their careers within the last 25 years. A player must have spent 5 years out of the league before they can be considered for induction into the Hall of Fame. Players that last played in the 2006 season will be eligible for induction in 2012.

During Super Bowl Weekend, the panel will meet and narrow down the list of modern-era finalists down to five. Those five will be considered alongside two senior candidates, selected by a nine-member subpanel of the larger panel last August, for a total of seven. From this list, at least four and no more than seven people will be selected for induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

My prediction for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2012 is:

Curtis Martin
Andre Reed
Dermontti Dawson
Cortez Kennedy
Charles Haley
Jack Butler
Dick Stanfel

Hall of Fame Game: Steelers v. Jets

NFL Schedule: Wild Card Playoffs

One thing I get to do with these schedule posts is show off one of the big advantages of my Playoff Picture format. Sure, the teams are in the wrong order, but still. No Lineal Titles during the playoffs this year; the Chargers will take it into the offseason.

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD
WEST
48-8
512-4 Sun 4:30 PM ET (PIT 13-21½)
Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
SOUTH
310-6
69-7 Sat 4:30 PM ET (HOU 20¾-17¾)
Tom Hammond, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan
NORTH
212-4
v. highest remaining
1/15 1PM ET
EAST
113-3
v. lowest remaining
1/14 8PM ET
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD NOTES
EAST
49-7
510-6 Sun 1PM ET (NYG 22¼-25¼)
Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver
SOUTH
313-3
610-6 Sat 8PM ET (NO 24¼-35¼)
Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
WEST
213-3
v. highest remaining
1/14 4:30 PM ET
NORTH
115-1
v. lowest remaining
1/15 4:30 PM ET

NFL Schedule: Week 17

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD NOTES
WEST
48-7
510-4 TEAMS AT 8-7 LISTED
IN REVERSE ORDER
OF LAST WEEK
(WOULD BE BROKEN BY
STRENGTH OF VICTORY)
8-7
SOUTH
310-5
69-6
CLINCHED
NORTH
211-4
8-7
11-4 8-7
EAST
112-3
8-7
CLINCHED
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD NOTES
EAST
48-7
510-5 NFC EAST LOSER
ELIMINATED;
LAST NFC PLAYOFF SPOT
TO BE DETERMINED
8-7
SOUTH
312-3
69-6
CLINCHED
WEST
212-3
8-7
CLINCHED
NORTH
114-1
CLINCHED

The NFL Schedule post is the first post of 2012, because it took so long for me to find out for sure what Compass was doing that I just gave up. With no SNF Flex Schedule Watch, the playoff picture moves back to the Schedule post; this is one point in favor of putting the playoff picture on this post full-time.

Week 17 never feels like a regular season week, especially with the double double-header, and the NFL has made it less so in recent years. On the other hand, there are a grand total of three games this weekend with no meaning whatsoever other than draft picks no one cares about because they aren’t the Luck pick, and I’ll show you what’s at stake in every one.

If all games go according to the point spread, your playoff teams are, according to ESPN’s Playoff Machine: AFC = byes: Patriots and Ravens; Titans @ Texans, Steelers @ Broncos; NFC = byes: Packers and Niners; Falcons @ Saints, Lions @ Giants.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#26(5-10) 18¾-26¾ #T15(7-8) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Ron Pitts, Charles Davis 139 92 Aaaaaaand the very first game is one of those meaningless ones as the former Dream Team looks to end on a high note.
(10-5) 22¾-18¾ (14-1) Sun 1:00 PM 712 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 85 104 Well, the Lions have no chance to lock down the 5 against the Packers! …what’s that? They aren’t unbeaten and are resting everybody? Oh.
#14(8-7) 18¼-21¼ #23(5-10) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 86 136 Jets are fighting for a playoff spot, but the Dolphins are more dangerous than they look.
#22(6-9) 23¼-30¾ (12-3) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver 138 125 Yeah, the Saints are playing for a bye, but you know the Fox slate is lame when Buck and Co have the early spot on a doubleheader.
(12-3) 23¼-12¼ (7-8) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 137 117 The Rams should make it easy for the Niners to lock down a first-round bye.
#21(7-8) 19½-21½ #T28(3-12) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 135 94 Another meaningless game as the Bears just try to finish at .500.
#17(8-7) 20½-18½ (10-5) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 106 128 The Texans have nothing to play for, but tell me the Titans won’t force a strength-of-victory tiebreaker for the last spot.
(2-13) 16¾-20¼ #27(4-11) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Spero Dedes, Steve Beuerlein 113 112 It’s the final resolution of the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes!
#25(6-9) 19¾-30¼ (12-3) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Don Criqui, Randy Cross 134 93 The Patriots can lock down the AFC’s seed; anyone want to tell them they don’t deserve it?
(11-4) 20-13½ #T28(4-11) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 135 92 The Steelers need a win if they want the division crown and a first-round bye.
(6-9) 17-20 (8-7) Sun 4:15 PM 717 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms 132 86 For all Tebow’s magic, he needs it to last one more game to get into the playoffs at all.
(11-4) 20½-18 (9-6) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 134 94 The Ravens want to lock down the division, but Dalton and the Bengals can lock down a playoff spot.
#19(7-8) 19-22 #20(7-8) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 139 112 Our last meaningless game means a second NFC East team will finish at .500 for once!
#30(4-11) 17½-28 (9-6) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 136 117 With only one playoff spot still to go in the NFC, this is what passes for a Fox feature game: Atlanta maybe playing for the 5.
#18(7-8) 22½-25½ #T15(8-7) Sun 4:15 PM 718 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 85 93 The Raiders could claim the division – but have an outside shot at the wild card if they don’t.
#12(8-7) 22-26 (8-7) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya 92 93 Final game of the regular season is the NFC East title game.

Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League: Championship Week

Worldwide Leaders got an early 15.8-point head start after the Thursday night game, with some production from Donald Brown but mostly 11 points from kicker Neil Rackers. Ray Rice, however, scored a big touchdown in the first half of his game with the Browns to give College Busters a slim lead. Jabar Gaffney picked up a receiving touchdown of his own to help College Busters pull away to a fairly comfortable lead heading into the late games, 62.7-40.8, as Worldwide Leaders failed to get double-digit production out of anybody. No one scored any touchdowns, and Mike Wallace was the most productive at 82 yards.

When Alex Smith proved to have a disappointing day, with no touchdowns and less than 200 all-purpose yards, the writing appeared to be on the wall for ESPN, cursing themselves for not shoring up their quarterback position, even with one more player still to play in the primetime games than College Busters. Matthew Stafford had a 378-yard, 3-touchdown day, good for nearly 28 points and giving YHOO a lead of over 56 points. Worldwide Leaders would need Jordy Nelson and Jimmy Graham to average 28 points and have Michael Turner basically be shut out, which would basically be a miracle. Nelson would do his part, scoring two touchdowns and 23.5 points, and Turner only scored 7.5 points, but Graham only put up 10.2 points of his own, well short of what was necessary.

Although College Busters snuck into the playoffs as a 4 seed, perhaps it’s fitting for the title to go to Yahoo, who was at the forefront of the fantasy phenomenon, rode fantasy to a position of being the most popular sports site, more so even than ESPN, and remains the most popular fantasy site of them all. A little poetic justice, perhaps.

Meanwhile, Ron Burgundy All-Stars pulled off another upset of Swimsuit Issues in the third-place game, thanks in large part to big days from Cam Newton and Victor Cruz, while SI once again got disappointing performaces, with Drew Brees the only touchdown-scoring starter. Commissioner’s Favorite got stung by the Tony Romo injury and Team Infograph rolled over them, while Inside Information and The SportsLine had the game of the weekend, with FLEA winning by less than two points with depth across the board (Michael Vick, Marshaun Lynch, and four others in double digits) over two or three great performances (Arian Foster and Brandon Marshall scored over twenty, while Matt Moore came close) and some good ones (Malcom Floyd and the Bengals defense scored over ten points, while Michael Bush scored 9.4). Finally, Indy Tea Party and Wisdom of Crowds had the two highest-scoring performances of the week to knock off Takedown Glaze and Politically Incorrect.

Fixing Jim Rome is Burning

One thing that I started doing during the past year was listen to Jim Rome’s nationally-syndicated radio show. I was hooked immediately. While Rome may have lost some firepower over the years, his show is still the best show in sports radio. The entertainment value of the radio show stands in marked contrast to his ESPN show, Jim Rome is Burning. Earlier this year, JRIB was bumped to ESPN2 full-time, the victim of ratings that couldn’t even hold up from its NFL Live lead-in, let alone carry them to Around the Horn, and it’s easy for me to see why. It feels like it’s simply going through the motions each day, going through the same cookie-cutter pattern, like it doesn’t really care anymore. It’s a far cry not only from the radio show, but from its very earliest days, when it was launched as an hour-long show, Rome is Burning, with considerable fanfare.

What makes matters worse is that, strangely enough, many if not all of the takes on JRIB are essentially regurgitated from the radio show, which means if you listened to the radio show earlier, you have zero reason to watch JRIB to listen to the same takes again, only made worse somehow. How could the exact same takes that are so entertaining on the radio show be so boring on JRIB? Here are some modest suggestions for revitalizing JRIB and making it a more worthwhile watch each day, bringing it up to, or at least close to, the level of the radio show:

Overhaul the opening segment. While Rome is always known for his rapid-fire style, when reading takes on JRIB he seems to be on a complete 5-Hour Energy buzz and reading his takes off a teleprompter almost in monotone. Instead of being a talking head staring into a camera, perhaps in the opening segment Rome should be sitting in the easy chair he uses for the “Alone with Rome” and “The Forum” segments. It might help him seem less robotic. What should also help is ditching the music playing in the background during his takes, which comes off as distracting; ditching the music might help the takes feel more naturalistic, the segment less artificial. Ditching the music could also allow Rome to make smoother transitions between takes, rather than have different pieces play for each take. More radically, Rome could adopt a new style for JRIB and write entirely separate takes just for that show. Whatever he goes with, Rome should feel like he’s simply shooting the breeze about sports with us, not rattling off a script as fast as he can.

Get a helper cohost. Perhaps part of the problem is that, while both introducing the story and giving a take on it works on the radio, it causes everything to blur together on TV. Since moving to ESPN2, JRIB has arguably been put to shame by the program airing before it, the new show Dan LeBatard is Highly Questionable. One key element that helps DLHQ work is the character (and ultimately, he is a character) of Papi, who serves as LeBatard’s foil and, more importantly, sets him up by introducing the topic for him to riff on. All of ESPN’s other talk shows use multiple people in similar fashion. Perhaps JRIB would flow better if he brought in one of the people who help run his radio show to introduce each topic and set him up to give his take on each one.

Tie the segments closer together, and give Rome more of a presence in each one. Currently the sequence of a typical episode of JRIB goes like this: Rome’s takes on the day’s sports stories, an interview segment, shooting the breeze with another personality, a once-a-week “correspondent” piece from an athlete, and one to three “final burn” takes. These segments have little connection with each other other than sports and Jim Rome himself, and the Correspondent piece seems particularly superflouous and its purpose should be rethought. Part of the problem is that during Alone with Rome, The Forum, and the Correspondents, Rome is ultimately a cypher who stays in the background while the guest is the star of the show.

While Rome tries to get topical guests on his radio show, his guests on JRIB are often whoever he can get who’s available, which isn’t the case on PTI. DLHQ manages to get away with getting the “best available guest” by giving the interview segment its own gimmick, but Alone with Rome is more of a straight-up interview segment, so Rome needs to make getting better guests for it a higher priority. Rome occasionally gives his own opinions during the Forum segment, but the focus there is clearly on the guest’s opinions, not his own, and the two are largely superfluous to one another. Perhaps the opening segment is so bad at providing a backbone for the show that simply fixing its issues could go far in tying the rest of the show together, but if not Rome needs to consider what he can do to make himself more of the star of the show, possibly including…

Consider ditching the Forum, or make it an occasional segment replacing Alone with Rome. If I recall correctly, when JRIB started the Forum was a full-fledged roundtable of panelists debating the day’s sports stories. Now, with the Forum taking up an entire segment on a half-hour program devoted to one guy giving a second opinion often on the same topics Rome covered in the opening segment, it seems like more of a waste of valuable time. Consider freeing the time up for another segment like the first one on two or three topics, allowing the opening segment to breathe more and allowing Rome to slow down his takes. Alternately, save some topics to be covered only in the Forum and give Rome closer to equal billing in that segment; the topic taken from Twitter in each Forum in the ESPN2 era may be a step in this direction.

Rome should take his show’s move to ESPN2 as a wake-up call that JRIB is broken and needs fixing. Wikipedia claims that Rome has, in the past, threatened to abandon his radio show entirely and do only a TV show. If so, I hope that JRIB as it exists today is not what such a show would look like. The best thing that could probably happen to JRIB would probably be going back to an hour-long show, which probably can’t be had without leaving ESPN. Short of that, Rome needs to find a way to get the show to work within the time that he has.

The SNF Week 17 Situations

I’ve realized I’ve had reason to link to this post from last year, just to back up how narrow NBC’s choices for Week 17 really were. Hence, this post, to explain that with the NFL’s all-divisional lineup Week 17, there aren’t that many scenarios that produce a game guaranteed to remain a win-and-in, lose-and-out game after all the other games are played, which is what the NFL likes to plug in to the Sunday night timeslot. Namely, two teams in the same division competing for the same single playoff spot, either division or wild card, and playing each other.

Consider, for a second, two tied teams in the same division that don’t play each other. If the team with the tiebreaker wins, the team without it has nothing to play for. If you put the team with the tiebreaker in primetime, then if the team without the tiebreaker loses, the team with it also has nothing to play for. Putting the two teams a game apart just makes it worse. You need the two teams to be tied AND you need the tiebreaker situation if both teams win to be different from the tiebreaker situation if both teams lose. But the first three tiebreakers are: division games, common games, and conference games, and the NFL has made sure both teams are playing a game that’s all three. Remember, we needed both teams to have the same result, so all three tiebreakers will move in the same direction as well. The next tiebreaker is strength of victory, which you can’t count on.

The situation for the wild card, when competing against teams in other divisions, isn’t much better. The same constraints as in the first half of the last paragraph apply. The first tiebreaker (after head-to-head) is conference games, which both teams are playing. The next tiebreaker is common games, where an opening appears, since common games among teams in different divisions are rare, unless the teams’ divisions played each other. It’s conceivable for one team to play a common game while the other doesn’t… but then the best case scenario is that the two teams finish tied in the common games. And what’s the next tiebreaker? Why, strength of victory, of course.

However, the other reason I wanted to make this post was a post on Pro Football Talk suggesting Broncos-Chiefs might have been selected if the Chargers had lost. While I had said the result that needed to be different was the Chiefs beating the Raiders, and so far as I know that’s still correct, I realized there really isn’t anything going against that scenario. So that provides a loophole that broadens things out a little: if a team would lose a tiebreaker against two other teams in the same division a game back and playing each other, or would win a tiebreaker against two other teams in the same division also tied with them and playing each other, that team has an SNF-Week-17 ready game.

So Bengals-Jets two years ago might have happened, if two of the other wild card contenders were also playing each other. But I suspect the NFL would prefer that sort of game, where one team has nothing to play for, not happen – though it’s far better if it’s a team out of the playoffs, like the Chiefs, than one in the playoffs and resting up for it, like the Bengals two years ago.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 17 Picks

Week 17 (January 1):

  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Cowboys (8-7)-Giants (8-7), Broncos (8-7)-Chiefs (6-9).
  • Impact of Sunday and Monday Night Football: None, though announcement will be made before either game is over anyway.
  • Analysis: NBC breathed a huge sigh of relief when the Giants won (and then started hyperventilating again when Tony Romo got injured). The Cowboys and Giants will enter their Week 17 showdown tied for the division lead. The Broncos did get shockingly blown out by the lowly Bills (shades of the pre-Tebow era), and the Lions finished off the Chargers, but the Chiefs couldn’t do their part.
  • Final prediction: Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants.