Sports

Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League: Semifinals Recap

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College Busters was the only playoff team with a player in the Thursday Night game, getting their matchup off to a roaring start with 12.5 points from Michael Turner. Ron Burgundy All-Stars and Worldwide Leaders each had a player in the Saturday Night game between the Bucs and Cowboys, but LeGarrette Blount had a disappointing day for KFFL, and ESPN took the lead on the back of the Cowboys defense 13-2.1.

Drew Brees only slowly caught fire to propel Swimsuit Issues in the lead by halftime of the early games, while KFFL and ESPN traded paint despite ESPN’s early lead and ESPN having more players in play. Cam Newton and the Dolphins defense helped KFFL stay competitive, while Jordy Nelson, Hakeem Nicks, and Neil Rackers had no score for ESPN after the first half. Brees eventually had an incredibly productive day (nearly 35 points), giving Swimsuit Issues an over 35-point lead heading into the late games, while Donald Brown keyed Worldwide Leaders to an eventual huge lead, thanks to his 80-yard touchdown run.

College Busters roared into the lead when the Eagles started their game out strong with two sacks, an interception, and a touchdown return. Suddenly Swimsuit Issues, which had been the dominant team all season, looked like it might very well miss the title game. Following the late games, Swimsuit Issues had a .04 lead over College Busters, and that mostly because LeSean McCoy managed to get a long run for a touchdown late. It would come down to Antonio Brown and the Ravens defense for Swimsuit Issues against Ray Rice and Michael Crabtree for College Busters.

The first round was Ray Rice against the Ravens defense, and it was an unmitigated disaster for Swimsuit Issues. Rice did pretty well, putting up 11 points, but the Ravens defense let Phillip Rivers march up and down on them. SI would need Brown to score 17 more points than Crabtree to move on to the championship game. Luckily, Crabtree had only 35 receiving yards on the day. But Brown only mustered 59, with neither making the end zone, and just like that Swimsuit Issues was out.

A strong day for Brent Celek pulled Ron Burgundy All-Stars into the lead, but not by much. All Worldwide Leaders needed was eight points from Alex Smith, a relatively trivial number for a quarterback, to make the championship game. Smith would end up going for 187 yards and a touchdown, setting up Worldwide Leaders for a championship game showdown with the surprising College Busters.

Worldwide Leaders will put out an impressive lineup: Chris Johnson and Donald Brown (fresh off a breakout 22-point performance) at running back, Steve Smith, Jordy Nelson, and Mike Wallace at wideout, Jimmy Graham at tight end, and Neil Rackers at kicker. The main weak spots, if you can call them that, are Alex Smith at quarterback and the Cowboys defense, and the latter is the only starter on ESPN’s roster not projected to score in double digits by Fleaflicker – and even then they’re off a double-digit performance.

But Fleaflicker also still projects College Busters to come out on top. Quarterback Matthew Stafford and running backs Ray Rice and Michael Turner are some of the best in the game, and Shonn Greene and tight end Aaron Hernandez aren’t slouches either. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski and the Eagles defense (interestingly, playing the Cowboys defense) are strong as well. YHOO’s weak spot is at wideout with Jabar Gaffney and Michael Crabtree. Will Worldwide Leaders’ wideouts win the day, or will College Busters get enough production from their studs to finish their Cinderella run? Only time will tell.

Meanwhile, Swimsuit Issues isn’t expected to have too much of a problem with Ron Burgundy All-Stars in the third-place game. Commissioner’s Favorite managed to upset The SportsLine to set up a fifth-place showdown with Team Infograph, while Takedown Glaze managed to crush the higher-seeded Politically Incorrect to set up a showdown with an Indy Tea Party team that similarly demolished Wisdom of Crowds. Outside the championship game, the closest contest could be CBS’ seventh-place showdown with Inside Information, where both sides are actually expected to score more than either title game participant, with Arian Foster and Michael Bush keying The SportsLine (and Malcom Floyd the only starter not projected to crack double digits) and Michael Vick expected to have a big day alongside Calvin Johnson for Inside Information.

NFL Schedule: Week 16

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The Pats, Ravens, Steelers, and Texans are 10-4 or better, despite the inconsistency some of them have shown. No AFC team is 9-5. The Packers are 13-1; the Saints and Niners are 11-3. No NFC team is 10-4. Who wants to bet that your Super Bowl teams will come from that group? Dark horses: Broncos, Lions, Falcons.

Had trouble finding consistent numbers for Rams-Steelers, and no wonder, with a new record low MXS for St. Louis that could be as low as 10¼.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
(10-4) 23-17 (1-13) Thu 8:20 PM Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan WW1 92 93 Now that the Colts have won, can they keep it up? Not against the division champs on a short week.
#23(5-9) 19½-29 (11-3) Sat 1:00 PM 705 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts USA 125 92 Division? Check. First-round bye and seed? Still some work to do, but the Fins will help.
#27(4-10) 16¼-23¾ #20(7-7) Sat 1:00 PM 707 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 127 117 Tennessee is trying to keep hope alive for a playoff berth and hopes a win over a division foe will help.
(4-10) 20¼-27¾ (5-9) Sat 1:00 PM 711 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 136 112 Cam Newton’s escapades have resulted in wins recently – and passing the Bucs for third in the division.
(4-10) 12¾-25¾ (10-4) Sat 1:00 PM 706 Spero Dedes, Rich Gannon 106 93 Surely the Ravens won’t look nearly as bad playing the Browns?
#T17(7-7) 18-22½ (8-6) Sat 1:00 PM 712 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 139 113 Two teams trying to scratch and claw their way into the playoffs.
#30(2-12) 18¾-25¼ #25(5-9) Sat 1:00 PM 710 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 128 134 Adrian Peterson says he’s playing for fantasy owners, so people who win their titles because of him, send him a thank-you card.
(8-6) 22¼-19¼ #26(5-9) Sat 1:00 PM 704 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms CMP 91 104 The Broncos look to lock down the division against a team in freefall.
(2-12) 11-25 (10-4) Sat 1:00 PM 713 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 138 85 Rams still very much alive in the Luck Sweepstakes, and an angry Steelers team should help.
#T17(7-7) 20-22 #22(6-8) Sat 1:00 PM 708 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 94 137 Fresh off their upset of the Pack, can the Chiefs keep their slim division hopes alive against one of their foes for the crown?
#15(7-7) 21½-24½ #12(8-6) Sat 1:00 PM 709 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa WW1 132 86 Battle of New York will determine whether Giants-Cowboys is a division title game on Sunday night.
#14(7-7) 24¾-27¼ (9-5) Sat 4:05 PM 714 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf WW1 86 135 Lions look to lock down a playoff spot, while the Bolts look to keep their slim hopes alive.
#19(6-8) 24¼-26¼ (8-6) Sat 4:15 PM 715 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver CMP 92 93 Eagles look to keep their not-as-slim-as-you-think playoff hopes alive against the division leaders.
(11-3) 20¼-17¾ #16(7-7) Sat 4:15 PM 716 Ron Pitts, Charles Davis USA 85 94 Can the Hawks’ magical comeback continue against the class of the division?
#21(7-7) 15¾-28¾ (13-1) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 The Pack either seek to bounce back and lock down the seed, or start resting starters, against a division rival.
(9-5) 23¼-29¾ (11-3) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 Game of the week sees Falcons trying to steal division from Saints.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 15

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (6-8)
WEST
48-6		 510-4
2 teams at 7-7
SOUTH
310-4		 68-6
CLINCHED
NORTH
210-4		 8-6
10-4 7-7
EAST
111-3		 7-7
CLINCHED 7-7
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (7-7)
EAST
48-6		 59-5
7-7
SOUTH
311-3		 69-5
9-5
WEST
211-3
CLINCHED
NORTH
113-1
CLINCHED
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Broncos-Chiefs. Chargers-Raiders is out because a Broncos win Week 17 would lock up the division no matter what else happens these next two weeks.
  • Cowboys-Giants will be picked if: The Giants win OR the Cowboys lose AND the situation below doesn’t happen. A Giants win Week 16 knocks the Eagles out of the playoffs. If the Giants lose, a Cowboys win locks up the division for them, while a Cowboys loss leaves open the possibility that the Giants would already be eliminated before primetime.
  • Broncos-Chiefs will be picked if: The Giants lose AND the Broncos lose AND the Chiefs beat the Raiders AND the Chargers lose. It’s a lot to have happen, and the Broncos are playing the floundering Bills, but if the Chiefs beat the Broncos they would win even a three-way tiebreaker, thanks in large part to what would be a sweep of the Raiders. Because NBC hasn’t had the Tebow fill they wanted, they might choose this game even if the Giants win, but you know Fox is salivating more at the prospect of Cowboys-Giants than CBS is salivating at the prospect of Broncos-Chiefs. If neither of these scenarios happen? NBC is screwed. That’s why I think they might go with Cowboys-Giants even if the Cowboys haven’t done so much as clinch the division. NBC will be rooting hard for the Giants on Saturday, and if they lose we’ll learn a lot about the NFL’s priorities and contingencies.

Getting some sports graphics out of the way before NBA season starts

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The last time we talked about sports graphics, I noticed that by going widescreen, ESPN was able to attach statistics to the side of their baseball box rather than have it pop in and out, in a move reminiscent of something TNT had been trying with their NBA coverage. I wondered if that meant all of ESPN’s sports would move to the box, seeing signs of the potential of this everywhere.

Sure enough, when college football season started it came with a new graphics package… that was essentially a smaller, streamlined version of the previous banner using the same design as baseball for statistics display.

(By the way? Not a fan of the way ESPN is transitioning into replays that it introduced during bowl season.)

However, ESPN may be making some more modest, but still interesting, changes. The display of statistics during college basketball games uses a different color scheme and font than the other two sports, perhaps trying to be more in line with the graphics that don’t have to fit the general package. Also, ESPN has added an indicator for whether a team is in the bonus or double bonus below the score, next to the timeout indicators, almost daring CBS, Turner, and all their competitors to keep up.

Meanwhile, Monday Night Football decided to go in a completely different direction for its graphics package. Structurally, it’s the same, but if it weren’t for the ESPN logo you’d never guess it was an ESPN production. The display of stats even abandons the whole two-line scores-and-stats-in-the-same-space gimmick ESPN’s been pushing, aside from getting rid of the banner.

Turner continued the trend of graphic standardization when the baseball postseason hit, with a few extra, in my view unnecessary, flourishes.

CBS has finally started rolling out the style of their NFL banner and go-to-break score display of the last two seasons to other sports and their other graphics. It seems a little jarring for college sports, where the type seems a little small, and feels a little dark for statistics graphics and on-field down-and-distance indicators (and cramped in the former case). Also worth noting that the go-to-break score display for college football is very different from the NFL one, and bears more than a passing resemblance to the one used in the NCAA tournament.

Meanwhile, the college basketball graphic is basically a tweaked version of the previous one, with not much done to make it look any more like the March Madness graphic. And the go-to-break graphic has its own differences from the college football graphic. Is sport differentiation all the rage now? Is Turner going against the grain?

The most obvious change to Fox’s NFL graphic is to make the timeout indicators even more naturally integrated by extending them into bars. Later in the season Fox also changed how it indicated which team has the ball, making it more visible, but I prefer the old way. I think there’s also something else different about this box. Is it me, or is it darker? Also, Fox has moved its scoreboard from the Fox Sports logo to a ticker at the bottom of the screen, allowing them to include more info, such as statistics and score alerts.

It looks for all the world like Fox will go the logo-only route only for the NFL, although abbreviations look different for college football than they do for MLB, looking lighter.

Can’t say I’m a fan of how Fox adapted their college basketball banner to the new graphics package.

Versus’ new graphics package is basically NBC’s package with the NBC logo replaced with the Versus logo. Yes, for both college football and hockey. I’m really surprised at the latter; I would expect the rebrand to come complete with a new graphics package, especially considering the logo is changing as well. But it’s occuring at an odd time, when NBC has its Wild Card Saturday slate of games. It’s just kind of odd that Versus would change its graphics package for the four months it has left before it becomes NBC Sports Network, complete with the Versus logo substitution.

I’m surprised that CBC went as all-out as it did on its new graphics package.

“Root Sports” finally got around to getting its own graphics package. Honestly, parts of it make it look a little second-rate. But I do have to admit, their timeout indicators are better than most.

And finally, we end at a look at the new graphics for the ACC Network, formerly Raycom, which moves to a box and a weird logo shape and effect for touchdowns. The timeout indicators aren’t ideal, but they aren’t too intrusive.

There. That should tide us over for a few more months, shouldn’t it?

Breaking down what the NFL’s new TV deals mean

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The NFL may have just made the biggest change to its television and week-by-week scheduling structure since it lifted the blackout on sold-out home games… without changing any networks.

Last week, the NFL renewed its deals with CBS, Fox, and NBC for another nine years through 2022. One part of the deal will involve “expanded flex scheduling”, which apparently means NBC will be able to flex out of games as early as Week 5, but only if the game is a disaster waiting to happen like the Colts’ games this year. But it will also mean that games could flip between CBS and Fox. Before this point, there was an AFC network and an NFC network, and which games aired on which networks was set in stone. Now, while the rules for which games air on which networks will remain the same, some games may air on the other network on occasion. The situation we saw a few weeks ago, where Broncos-Vikings, normally a CBS game, flipped to Fox, will become more common. The exact rules haven’t been decided on, but one reason to flip games may be to shore up the second half of the doubleheader, though Broncos-Vikings became the premier game of the first half of the doubleheader.

That means that starting in 2014, my SNF Flex Schedule Watch could be very different… and I may have to give up the ghost entirely if the rules end up being too complicated.

The NFL also made a change to how it divvies up playoff games. NBC has traded in one of its Wild Card games for a divisional game. Most of the smart money has ESPN picking up the Wild Card game NBC gave up, putting a playoff game on cable for the first time. The third divisional game could conceivably rotate between CBS and Fox, go to ESPN as well, or go to NBC as well. My money is that it’ll go to NBC, balancing the number of playoff games on the broadcast networks before the Super Bowl at three apiece. Rotating between CBS and Fox would be hard logistically, and the NFL doesn’t seem to be the sort of entity that lets ESPN have playoff games that deep.

The NFL Network will also expand its Thursday Night schedule. This doesn’t necessarily mean selling the back half of the Thursday Night package is off the table, if it means going to 10-12 as a “stepping stone” to a full-season split schedule and as a way to put more pressure on those holdouts that don’t carry NFLN, but I could see it happening (hopefully it doesn’t mean the NFL will keep the additional NFLN games and try for an 18-game schedule again). However, the Thanksgiving Night game is moving to NBC, which doesn’t really surprise me, but does seem to be a good sign for NBC Sports Network’s prospects of winning the Thursday Night package (although if NBCSN does win it’s likely to be only seven games as a result of this). By my calculations, that means the Thursday night schedule would begin somewhere around Week 4-6.

Finally, NBC Sports Network will throw its hat into the ring of the Sunday morning pregame shows. That’s another good sign for NBC Sports’ prospects of winning the Thursday night package; however, if the NFL went with Turner then every single contender in the sports TV wars would have a Sunday morning pregame show.

Sport-Specific Networks
5 5.5 4.5 2.5 0 1.5

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 14

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For the past few weeks I’ve been resigned to the fact that an LSU-Alabama rematch was probably the least bad option for the national title game. It would pit two teams from the same conference that met in an unwatchable snoozefest in the regular season and include a non-conference champion, but none of the other one-loss teams were that attractive.

However… is there any sort of serious case to be made against Oklahoma State?

The main case against Oklahoma State seems to be that they lost to an Iowa State team that’s barely bowl-eligible. That’s it. I’m pretty sure teams have made the national title game with worse single losses. Forget about conference champions; Oklahoma State might have a better resume than Alabama even discounting the championship question. I suspect the real reason people dismiss Oklahoma State for the national title game is because they’re not one of the biggest name teams. As I said some weeks ago, people don’t quite believe that the “little brother” in the Bedlam rivalry is really a national title contender. Suppose we took Oklahoma State’s resume and applied it to Oklahoma, or even took Oklahoma’s resume and removed losses to Baylor and Oklahoma State, meaning their one loss would be even worse: to non-bowl-eligible Texas Tech. Would anyone seriously think Oklahoma wouldn’t make the national title game over Alabama?

It’s becoming more and more apparent that the BCS isn’t even about handing out the plum picks to the top five or six conferences, but about protecting the standing of the most prestigious schools. Alabama making the national title game over Oklahoma State proves that the BCS discriminates even against teams with moderately big names, let alone the small non-BCS schools, to protect a small cadre of name teams. It tells you everything you need to know about both why there has been so much realignment chaos the past two years, and why all of it is ultimately beside the point. At that point, perhaps it’s time to just admit it, and put the most prestigous schools together in the top level of a promotion-relegation system.

As it turns out, in a year that threatened to emulate every single BCS controversy from years past, the most similar case to this year would probably be 2006. People that year were gearing up for a national championship game between an undefeated team and a team from the same conference the undefeated team beat in the regular season. Then in the last week, a champion of a different conference was moved ahead of the non-champion despite the non-champion not playing. The difference between Ohio State-Michigan and LSU-Alabama? In 2006, Florida was a name team. Oklahoma State is not. Is it really that simple?

Rankings include the Army-Navy game, but not any of the bowls that have been played so far.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 LSU SEC ’06 Boise St.
13-0 LW: A Rat: .835 B Rating: 76.655 C Rating: 67.552 AP: 1 BCS: 1
LSU won the first game on Bama’s home turf. Now they’ll have near-home field advantage for the rematch.
2 Oklahoma State B12 AP Title
11-1 LW: A Rat: .662 B Rating: 56.201 C Rating: 47.768 AP: 3 BCS: 3
Little Brother beat Big Brother so convincingly it created a national title groundswell – that wasn’t enough. Now Luck and the Cardinal await in the Fiesta.
3 Alabama SEC BCS Title
11-1 LW: A Rat: .780 B Rating: 54.428 C Rating: 47.050 AP: 2 BCS: 2
It’ll be a tall order for the Tide to get their revenge.
4 Wisconsin B10 Big 10 Chmp.
11-2 LW: A Rat: .661 B Rating: 44.210 C Rating: 35.929 AP: 9 BCS: 10
Sparty kept it close, but the Badgers pulled it out and the polls moved them into the top 10. But Wisconsin could do even more against Oregon in their second straight Rose Bowl.
5 Boise State MWC Maaco Bowl
11-1 LW: A Rat: .711 B Rating: 43.928 C Rating: 35.298 AP: 8 BCS: 7
A BCS ranking nets the Broncos a date with an Arizona State squad that fumbled away a potential trip to the Pac-12 Title Game down the stretch.
6 Oregon P12 Pac-12 Chp.
11-2 LW: A Rat: .612 B Rating: 36.178 C Rating: 29.920 AP: 6 BCS: 5
Oregon impressed everyone with their demolition of UCLA, but the Badgers will be a tall order in the Rose Bowl.
7 Oklahoma B12 Insight Bowl
9-3 LW: A Rat: .516 B Rating: 29.405 C Rating: 23.918 AP: 19 BCS: 14
Demolished, but by a national title contender; people continue to overreact to their two tight losses. How bad might Iowa end up looking?
8 Houston USA TicketCity
12-1 LW: A Rat: .689 B Rating: 32.712 C Rating: 23.802 AP: 20 BCS: 19
Losing to a ranked team should not be that horrible… but Penn State may be the next-best opponent they’ve played all season. How did the TicketCity bowl get two teams THAT good?
9 Stanford P12 Fiesta Bowl
11-1 LW: A Rat: .686 B Rating: 27.329 C Rating: 20.817 AP: 4 BCS: 4
Stanford will be trying to prove they’re even better than the polls have them – and that Luck should have still won the Heisman – against Oklahoma State.
10 Michigan B10 Sugar Bowl
10-2 LW: A Rat: .590 B Rating: 24.777 C Rating: 20.474 AP: 13 BCS: 13
A little surprised there’s enough support for the Wolverines to put them in a BCS bowl, but you have to imagine it’s more for the name value than what the ratings say.
11 Southern Miss USA C-USA Chmp.
11-2 LW: #18 A Rat: .586 B Rating: 21.956 C Rating: 14.893 AP: 22 BCS: 21
What does the huge upset net the Eagles? A move up the polls of 2-3 spots and a trip to Hawaii to face Nevada, while Houston gets set to face Penn State. No respect, I tells ya.
12 TCU MWC MWC Champ.
10-2 LW: #14 A Rat: .604 B Rating: 16.459 C Rating: 9.972 AP: 16 BCS: 18
The Poinsettia Bowl will be a showdown of champions between TCU and the champions of the WAC, Louisiana Tech.
13 South Carolina SEC Capital One
10-2 LW: #16 A Rat: .560 B Rating: 12.248 C Rating: 9.160 AP: 10 BCS: 9
The Gamecocks move up considerably without even playing and with only two of the teams they passed playing and losing, thanks to Clemson’s big win. Now Nebraska awaits.
14 Arkansas SEC Cotton Bowl
10-2 LW: #15 A Rat: .545 B Rating: 13.190 C Rating: 8.910 AP: 7 BCS: 6
Kansas State is way overrated. How will it look if the Razorbacks blow them out of the water?
15 USC P12 ’09 Boise St.
10-2 LW: A Rat: .559 B Rating: 13.086 C Rating: 8.799 AP: 5 SBNBlog: 9
Matt Barkley, come back. With USC off probation and Luck and James NFL-bound, the Pac-12 is yours for the taking.
16 Georgia SEC Outback Bowl
10-3 LW: #12 A Rat: .506 B Rating: 9.744 C Rating: 6.765 AP: 18 BCS: 16
With regard to the polls, was Georgia hurt by playing in the conference title game? No matter: the SEC’s tie-in structure means it all works out.
17 Notre Dame   Chmps Sprts
8-4 LW: #17 A Rat: .402 B Rating: 9.125 C Rating: 6.264 — —
An ACC-heavy schedule for the Golden Domers will continue against Florida State.
18 Virginia Tech ACC Sugar Bowl
11-2 LW: A Rat: .549 B Rating: 9.543 C Rating: 6.215 AP: 17 BCS: 11
You want to know what enabled the outrage of V-Tech going to a BCS bowl? The BCS keeping them knocking on the door of the top 10.
19 Toledo MAC Military Bowl
8-4 LW: #19 A Rat: .412 B Rating: 8.182 C Rating: 4.590 — —
What does Toledo have to show for their season? A showdown against an Air Force team that’s barely bowl-eligible (and continung what’s becoming a tradition of the Military Bowl picking service academies).
20 Florida State ACC Chmps Sprts
8-4 LW: #20 A Rat: .470 B Rating: 7.930 C Rating: 4.152 AP: 25 Coaches: 25
Poll respect aside, Notre Dame will be a tall order for the Seminoles.
21 Nebraska B10 Capital One
9-3 LW: #21 A Rat: .475 B Rating: 4.320 C Rating: 2.513 AP: 21 BCS: 20
Probably their best bowl fit, but the Huskers will have a tall order trying to stop the Gamecocks.
22 Clemson* ACC Prncton/Yale
10-3 LW: A Rat: .457 B Rating: 4.998 C Rating: 1.924 AP: 14 BCS: 15
Stumbles down the stretch don’t matter now, becaue the Tigers are ACC Champions and headed to the BCS.
23 Texas A&M B12 Meineke C. C.
6-6 LW: #22 A Rat: .310 B Rating: 4.757 C Rating: 1.307 — —
I wonder if A&M will show Northwestern how good they’ve really been?
24 Michigan State B10 Outback Bowl
10-3 LW: #23 A Rat: .507 B Rating: 2.188 C Rating: -1.066 AP: 12 BCS: 17
The Spartans kept it close enough against a good Wisconsin team that they move in lockstep with the surrounding teams that didn’t play. But good luck against the Bulldogs.
25 Penn State
(9-3, .456, -.489, -1.811)		 B10 TicketCity


2010 TCU Title: #35 Baylor (9-3), .435, -3.743, -5.744

Off Top 25: #26 Louisiana Tech (was #25)

Watch List: #26 Louisiana Tech (Poinsettia Bowl), #27 Northern Illinois (GoDaddy.com Bowl)

Other Positive B Ratings: #30 Utah State* (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl), Ohio (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl), #34 Arkansas State (GoDaddy.com Bowl) (*=Newly Positive)

Bottom 10: #111 Colorado, #112 UAB, #113 Middle Tenn. St., #114 UNLV, #115 Kansas, #116 Memphis, #117 Tulane, #118 Florida Atlantic, #119 New Mexico, #120 Akron

Best bowl: BCS Championship Game, LSU v. Alabama, 1/9 5:30pm PT, ESPN
Best non-Championship Game bowl: Rose Bowl, Wisconsin v. Oregon, 1/2 2pm PT, ESPN
Best non-BCS bowl: TicketCity Bowl, Houston v. Penn State, 1/2 9am PT, ESPNU

Catching up on the sports television wars

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I stopped doing my Sports TV Wars posts in an attempt to reserve all my blogging time for football posts, so let’s not wait any longer to catch up on the developments from the last two months.

The World Cup bidding ended in a double upset, making the Wars far more interesting: Fox stealing the World Cup from ESPN (and indirectly NBC) and Telemundo stealing the Spanish language rights from Univision. I had thought Fox’s lack of MLS coverage, the main motivating factor behind their bid, would ultimately kill it because of FIFA’s desire for the winner to go all out to promote the sport in the US. I also thought NBC still had more motivation to grow Versus and establish their soccer brand. Instead, Fox sent a strong message that they are not to be ignored. I would expect most non-broadcast World Cup games to air on FX; the main value for Fox Soccer Channel will be all the lesser tournaments they now hold the rights to, filling the spring and summer programming time MLS left behind. Time will tell if this presages an effort to steal the MLS contract out from under both ESPN and NBC in a few years.

I was also surprised Telemundo even went ahead with a bid without corporate sibling NBC picking up English language rights, but apparently it may have been the other way around. (Which shouldn’t be surprising, considering Telemundo paid $100 million more than Fox.)

Also:

  • The Tennis Channel extended their rights agreement with the WTA Tour through 2016. ESPN3 reached an agreement with the WTA in the same deal. I’m not sure whether to count that half-and-half between Tennis Channel and ESPN or all Tennis Channel, but I’m going to do the latter for now.
  • Nearly a year after announcing it was dropping the “College” from its name, CBS Sports Network has finally picked up a non-college contract! Sure, it’s with super-tiny Major League Lacrosse, but still!
  • We then had a slow period through the rest of November and into December until just the other day, when ESPN extended its agreement with the NCAA for its non-men’s basketball championships, swiping some lesser women’s championships from CBS Sports Network and making me pine even more wistfully for what might have been had ESPN trumped CBS and Turner for March Madness.

Yes, I know I’m ignoring a far greater prize that was just awarded. But despite being essentially a formality, it’s a deal that’s far too big not to deserve its own post, for reasons that have nothing to do with who won them. More on that later.

Sport-Specific Networks
5 4.5 3.5 1.5 0 1.5

NFL Schedule: Week 15

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Much better slate of games this week, and this goes up just in time for the not-so-good Thursday night game.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#25(4-9) 14¼-27¾ (8-5) Thu 8:20 PM Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan WW1 92 93 "You’re down by 20 in the fantasy semis!" "MJD was the only starter on either one of our teams that played Thursday night."
(7-6) 27-20 (4-9) Sat 8:20 PM Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan WW1 92 93 It’s almost incredible how bad the Bucs have gotten, and the Cowboys need a bounce-back.
#15(7-6) 23¼-16¾ (2-11) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 91 138 Most of America will see this game. Not the most inspiring first game of a doubleheader in the world.
(4-9) 19½-26 (10-3) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Ron Pitts, Charles Davis 136 113 TJ Yates should continue to manage the game admirably against the porous Panther defense.
#19(6-7) 16¼-19¾ #16(7-6) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan CMP 139 93 Might the Seahawks prove they’re legitimate playoff contenders with a win over the Bears?
#27(4-9) 19¾-26¼ #12(7-6) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver USA 134 94 If the Skins can pull off the upset, it’ll be very unlikely the Giants-Cowboys rematch won’t be for the division.
#14(7-6) 23¾-17¼ (0-13) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 112 128 The Titans got an early Christmas present for their hopes to keep up in the wild card.
#22(4-9) 20½-20½ #23(5-8) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 85 104 Can the Dolphins’ hard charge finally pull them out of the cellar over the freefalling Bills?
(10-3) 28¾-22¼ #30(2-11) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Dick Stockton, John Lynch WW1 92 106 AP might be coming back! Too bad it’ll be against one of the best teams in the league.
(13-0) 30-16 #26(5-8) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 86 137 Will it matter who the Chiefs put out at quarterback against the Packers?
(8-5) 24½-23½ #17(7-6) Sun 4:05 PM 712 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin CMP 135 92 Two teams desperately seeking to make it in the playoffs.
(4-9) 15¼-21¾ #20(6-7) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 91 93 The Hawks have gotten more attention for their attempt to make the playoffs, but the Cards have done the same and should continue.
(10-3) 19½-26½ (8-5) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms WW1 86 94 Tom Brady and Tim Tebow square off in the game at the heart of last week’s network tug-of-war.
(8-5) 20½-23½ #21(5-8) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon USA 85 132 The Jets have become a clear in the division and solid playoff contender, so why are they dogs to the not-so-Dream Team?
(10-3) 23½-21 #18(6-7) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Actually a tighter spread than the game NBC actually wanted, but the Bolts face a major obstacle to playoff contention.
(10-3) 18¼-21¼ (10-3) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 The Monday Night slump ends in a big way with a showdown between two teams fighting for first-round byes.

Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League: Playoff Preview

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Despite a rather pathetic number of total points scored, Ron Burgundy All-Stars managed to take advantage of a surprisingly weak week from Worldwide Leaders to lock up its playoff spot, finishing a four-game season-ending winning streak, while College Busters rode the second-best performance of the final week to steal the last playoff spot from The SportsLine. They join ESPN and the league’s dominant team, Swimsuit Issues, in the playoffs. SI has been riding the back of a superior draft strategy to a record two games better than ESPN or KFFL. Meanwhile, Commissioner’s Favorite managed to edge Inside Information to sneak into the NIT, helped by a weak week from Politically Incorrect; they’ll play The SportsLine in the first round, while Team Infograph takes on Inside Information. Indy Tea Party v. Wisdom of Crowds and Politically Incorrect v. Takedown Glaze rounds out the ninth-place playoffs.

Worldwide Leaders’ strong suit is at wide receiver, where they have no fewer than three of the top six wideouts in the league, plus the second-best tight end in Jimmy Graham. But their roster might not cut it in real football, with a questionable quarterback situation (Vince Young and Alex Smith) to throw to those receivers, and while they’ve taken advantage of Chris Johnson’s resurgence in recent weeks the addition of Chris Ivory on the waiver wire this week brings them up to only three healthy running backs. The Cowboys’ defense is also a potential weak spot, putting up -6 points in their game against the Giants. ESPN immediately has a rematch with a team that just beat them, Ron Burgundy All-Stars. While their quarterback situation is solid in Cam Newton and they boast a balanced running corps and a top-notch receiver in Victor Cruz, Andre Johnson’s injury has really hurt and the team has been scrambling for a second wideout.

Swimsuit Issues lucked into having the best player in the entire league at three positions: running back (LeSean McCoy), tight end (Rob Gronkowski), and defense (Ravens). Drew Brees isn’t too shabby a pick at quarterback, either. But despite DeMarco Murray’s injury bringing them down to two running backs on roster, McCoy and Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, they added another wideout, Demaryius Thomas, to replace Murray. That gives them the maximum of seven, of which only Antonio Brown is averaging more than seven points a game. Kicker might also be considered a weak spot, although Mike Nugent put up 15 points last week. College Busters’ strong suit is in the run game, with two of the top ten running backs, as well as a good quarterback in Matt Stafford. The problem is that Jabar Gaffney is their only wide receiver in the top 40 at the position, and while they have good choices at tight end, kicker, and to some extent defense, it’s not quite on the level of the other playoff teams.

I’m bringing back the weekly recaps for this week, focusing solely on the playoff games and neither of the consolation brackets, though I may touch on what happens there.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 14

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (6-7)
WEST
48-5		 510-3
7-6
EAST
310-3		 68-5
8-5
NORTH
210-3		 7-6
10-3 7-6
SOUTH
110-3		 7-6
CLINCHED
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (6-7)
EAST
47-6		 58-5
7-6
SOUTH
310-3		 68-5
8-5
WEST
210-3		 7-6
CLINCHED 7-6
NORTH
113-0
CLINCHED
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Lions-Packers, Chargers-Raiders. Tiebreakers eliminate Titans-Texans and Ravens-Bengals.
  • Chances for Cowboys-Giants: 80 percent. Here are the scenarios for this game not to be picked: 1) One team loses their next two games and the other team wins their next two games. 2) The Cowboys beat the Bucs tonight, but lose to the Eagles next week while the Giants win their next two, as the Giants would hold the common-games tiebreaker even with a loss to the Cowboys in that situation. 3) and this is a maybe, considering the division winner doesn’t even have a good enough record for the wild card at the moment and the paucity of other options: the loser of the game still has a chance to make the playoffs. Any other scenario, and this game is for the NFC East crown with the loser likely out of the playoffs, and that would be by far the most TV-friendly game NBC could hope for. Those other scenarios are very possible, but the return match is looking very likely for a return to NBC.
  • Chances for Lions-Packers: 10 percent. The Pack have already locked up the division, so a) they would have to be gunning for 16-0, b) preferably the Lions wouldn’t be fighting for a playoff spot or at least their game wouldn’t have an impact on other teams’ playoff hopes even if they’re knocked out by the end of the day, and c) preferably Cowboys-Giants runs into one of those conditions that make it irrelevant. What saves it is that if situation c) happens, this is pretty likely to be the best game available.
  • Chances for Chargers-Raiders: 10 percent. What makes this game a long shot is that neither team is in the playoffs at the moment, but if the Broncos collapse this could luck into being an AFC West title game, and while the Jets and preferably Titans and Bengals would need to collapse it could conceivably be for the wild card as well. If the Broncos lose their next two, and the Chargers and Raiders win their next two, and Cowboys-Giants is irrelevant, and (maybe) the Packers lose one of their next two, this game is getting flexed in because the Chargers’ divisional record would trump the Raiders, and if necessary, their head-to-head record would trump the Raiders and Broncos. But that’s a lot of ifs, so if Cowboys-Giants becomes irrelevant NBC may well find itself stuck, especially if the Packers aren’t 15-0.