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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Colts have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since three other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. NBC appearances for all teams: TEN 2, PIT 3 (1 flexible), CHI 3 (1 flexible), GB 1, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 3 (1 flexible), IND 3, ARI 2, SD 1, ATL 1, PHI 4 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 1 (flexible), MIA 1 (flexible), MIN 1 (flexible), CAR 1 (flexible), WAS 1 (flexible). All primetime appearances for all teams: TEN 4, PIT 5 (1 flexible), CHI 5 (1 flexible), GB 3, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 5 (1 flexible), IND 5, ARI 3, SD 4, ATL 2, PHI 3 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 3 (1 flexible), MIA 4 (1 flexible), MIN 3 (1 flexible), CAR 3 (1 flexible), WAS 3 (1 flexible), BUF 2, OAK 1, NYJ 2, DEN 3, NO 3, SF 2, CLE 2, HOU 1, JAX 1.
• A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
• Prospects: 3-1 v. 3-1, with a pretty good chance of keeping its spot.
• Protected games according to this: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Redskins-Cowboys (FOX). Apparently the NFL’s most storied rivalry outweighs a game between two better teams in Giants-Falcons.
• Other possible games: Colts-Ravens and Giants-Falcons are the main contenders with Chargers-Broncos and 49ers-Packers as dark horses.

Week 12 (November 29):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 3-2 v. 3-2, the Steelers are defending champs, and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
• Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games – Bears-Vikings is the only other Saturday game pitting two teams with winning records, which, combined with the fact that Steelers-Ravens would revert to them, makes it an easy decision for CBS to leave this week unprotected despite how crap next week is for them. Jaguars-49ers, Colts-Texans, and Redskins-Eagles are the only games that so much as involve a 2-3 team playing a team with less than 3 losses.

Week 13 (December 6):

• Tentative game: New England @ Miami
• Prospects: A little mediocre at 3-2 v. 2-3, but anything can happen.
• Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS). Last week I noted that for CBS to protect any game other than a battle of then-2-2 teams in Jags-Texans was to take a leap of faith that some team below .500 is going to improve. Apparently CBS REALLY thinks the Titans’ 0-5 start is a fluke. But I also said that the only reason CBS might protect ANY game is because of the weakness of the tentative game, then 3-1 v. 1-3.
• Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons is the only Saturday game this week pitting two teams with one or no losses. Vikings-Cardinals is a dark horse.

Week 14 (December 13):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
• Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and it’s 5-0 v. 3-1, currently the top two spots in said division. Pretty good shot to keep its spot, which means Fox could have left this week unprotected. There’s a better candidate later, though.
• Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games: Those were the games I expected to be the frontrunners to potentially steal the spot, not to be protected, last week; Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons were and are better games. CBS is especially surprising because not only are Bengals-Vikings and Broncos-Colts better games, they have no shortage of starpower in Brett Favre and Peyton Manning respectively. This may have less to do with records than the fact that the only other AFC game in Cowboy Stadium, while on CBS, involves the crappy Raiders.

Week 15 (December 20):

• Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
• Prospects: Incredibly lopsided, with the Vikings unbeaten and the Panthers 1-3, and CBS’ decision not to protect Bengals-Vikings last week really hurts its chances, since this is no longer NBC’s best shot to see Brett Favre. (Though since that comes in a week with a very attractive tentative game, it’s still relevant that NBC’s other two shots are the Cardinals game Week 13 and the Giants game Week 17, the latter of which will be affected by the game’s playoff implications.)
• Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
• Other possible games: I completely misread Packers-Steelers as a CBS game last week, but Falcons-Jets, Bears-Ravens, or 49ers-Eagles are still better games involving two teams each above .500; none have the name value of the Steelers, though, and while the other Fox Steelers game is more attractive against the Vikings, it’s an early game as soon as Week 7 that’s unlikely to be shown in the late slot. In this sense, protecting the only half-decent game they had was a shoo-in for CBS.

Week 16 (December 27)

• Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
• Prospects: Could go either way, at 3-2 v. 2-3, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so its chances of keeping its spot are probably better than even. Given how crappy Fox’s games are and how marquee this game is regardless of records, it’s no wonder Fox left this week unprotected despite the bounty of great games last week and the (arguably) even more marquee game Week 14.
• Likely protections: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Jets-Colts or Broncos-Eagles.

Week 17 (January 3):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.