NFL Schedule: Week 4

Can someone explain to me why the Bears are 6½-point favorites over the Panthers? This is the Panthers team with the guy who captivated everyone with his offensive performances the first two weeks, right? And this is the Bears team that’s been hugely disappointing through three weeks, right? Same with the Eagles being 8½-point favorites over the Niners; I know we expected them to be that way, but not even the power rankings agree anymore.

With no votes on the poll, I’m probably not putting out the SEFL recap this week. Decided it’s not really worth it.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
(3-0) 23½-20½ (1-2) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Andrew Catalon, Steve Tasker 106 137 Bills getting respect, and they’re on the right end of the squash game for once.
#18(2-1) 18¾-20¼ #21(2-1) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 104 94 Bet you didn’t expect this to be a battle of 2-1 teams.
(2-1) 20½-24½ (2-1) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 86 128 Once again, the Texans face a huge test against a formidable top-tier team.
(3-0) 22¾-23¾ (2-1) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver 135 85 It was great seeing Romo fight off injury the past two weeks, but can he handle the resurgent Lions?
#20(2-1) 18-26½ #17(1-2) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora CMP 139 93 Are the Niners for real? Is the Dream Team little more than, well, a dream?
#22(1-2) 18¼-24¾ #19(1-2) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin USA 112 91 Bears defense hasn’t looked up to snuff… could Cam Newton go off on them?
#15(2-1) 22¼-21¼ (0-3) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan WW1 148 138 Will the Rams finally look like the team we expected them to be against the Redskins?
(2-1) 26¼-19¼ #25(1-2) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 92 136 It doesn’t get any easier for Gabbert against the vaunted Saints defense.
#T28(0-3) 20¾-19¼ (0-3) Sun 1:00 PM 712 Gus Johnson, Charles Davis, Tim Brewster 117 113 One team gets their first win of the season! The other’s a step closer to Andrew Luck.
#14(2-1) 23-21 #23(1-2) Sun 4:05 PM 713 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa USA 85 149 Could Eli go off against the woeful Cardinals defense?
#16(1-2) 22-17½ #27(1-2) Sun 4:05 PM 714 Craig Bolerjack, John Lynch WW1 93 134 Seahawks could be just what the doctor ordered for the Falcons to bounce back.
#26(1-2) 17-29½ (3-0) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms CMP 117 91 Broncos may be about to enter a lion’s den in Lambeau.
#30(0-3) 19-26 (2-1) Sun 4:15 PM 717 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 92 94 The Bolts seem to have shaken off their early-season swoons, but maybe playing teams like the Fins helps.
(2-1) 29¾-25¼ #12(2-1) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 86 113 Best game of the week you won’t be able to watch. Will the Pats be stunned by a surprise team again?
(2-1) 19-22½ (2-1) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Showdown between the two teams Pittsburgh beat en route to the Super Bowl.
#T28(0-3) 15¼-25¼ (2-1) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 Now it’s ESPN’s turn to bang its head against the wall for having a Colts game.

On the modern Ring of Gyges

(From The Order of the Stick. Click for full-sized influence.)

Rich rarely makes huge storytelling blunders, a result of how straightforward the comic’s art style forces his storytelling to be, but this comic contains a pretty big one. In the midst of Belkar dealing with Mr. Scruffy’s injury, we get a random panel showing Enor with Mr. Scruffy’s head, Gannji with Belkar’s head, and the back of Belkar’s head.

Or a flashback to Enor and Gannji’s arena battle, giving context to Belkar’s decision to save the two by unleashing the allosaurus. That works too, but only if you remember (a hard task given how slow the comic has updated recently – Robert A. “Tangents” Howard had a post on this comic nearly a week ago) that the line in that panel was originally said by Roy in the original comic. The panel isn’t given any real context, certainly no buildup, and the “revelation” contained therein seems to be randomly divulged without any real impact or providing any additional meaning to current events. In fact, there isn’t really any reason we couldn’t have gotten it a lot sooner.

Regardless, we now have some context for that decision, and an opportunity for me to say something about it. What we knew before was that Belkar made that decision, and didn’t want Ian to tell Roy about it – and seemed uncomfortable taking Roy off the scent himself. Considering Belkar is currently trying to fake the sort of character growth that would lead to him releasing a dinosaur to save a couple of people he only knows for getting him thrown in jail, it seems odd that he would deny any responsibility for it and actively try to maintain Roy’s impression that he’s still every bit the bastard he’s always been.

But what I’ve noticed, re-reading past strips in this book and my posts on them, is that Belkar only ever claims to be a team player. He never claims to have any sort of character growth beyond that. He never actually tries to claim that he’s any less of a murderous psychopath, he simply claims he’s no more of one than any other adventurer (something of a sore spot of Rich’s). Which begs the question: is that what Shojo meant? When he asked Belkar to fake character growth, did he mean as little character growth as possible? Re-reading my original post on the matter, there may be evidence in favor of this interpretation:

To this point, it seems that Shojo’s point might be bigger than whether or not Belkar should be a “hero”, but whether he should simply live a life bigger than just stabbing everyone at every opportunity. Consider Belkar’s life immediately preceding being struck by the Mark of Justice: skipping out on the entire explanation of the Gates because he’d killed a guard and fled, leading Miko on a wild goose chase and slowly driving her more and more insane with fury, pretty much trying to get her to kill him out of blind fury for kicks. Belkar doesn’t even care about staying alive as long as he believes he can be quickly resurrected…we can place a name to Belkar’s life through the Mark of Justice experience: “anger and needless rage”. He’s spent too much time consumed with both to realize his true potential, whether that involves “hurting…living creature[s]” or not.

I proceeded to suggest that “Really, nothing about the conversation says Belkar needs to stop acting outwardly evil; only the circumstances would determine that at any time”, and that one interpretation of Shojo’s remarks was that “Belkar needs to stop acting like he’s above the alignment system entirely, and start acting Chaotic Evil“: “Belkar, in this interpretation, is entirely within his rights to do exactly what he has been doing, but only as long as he at least makes an effort to get along with the rest of the Order of the Stick, and pay some effing attention to everything else that’s going on.”

Belkar’s reaction to his own decision to release the allosaurus suggests he’s taken this interpretation, but there’s a difference between not hiding your evil actions, and hiding your good ones. Belkar has an interest in Roy thinking he’s a team player, but somehow, he seems to also have an interest (or thinks he does) in Roy thinking he’s still a Chaotic Evil murderous psychopath. (It’s not that Roy would have a problem with him helping Gannji and Enor specifically; Roy’s own reaction disproves that.) Otherwise it would seem odd that Belkar would hide an act that would further his effort to convince Roy of his reformation, however defined. What makes it even odder is that Belkar has been introduced to the rewards of being good – but interestingly, his interpretation is wrong: “I did exactly what I always do – murder people horribly – but because I killed the people everyone else wanted me to kill, I get presents instead of jail time?”

So I have two interpretations of Belkar’s decision to hide his decision to release the allosaurus from Roy. The first is that Belkar is still new to this “society” and “morals” thing, and doesn’t realize that saving lives, even a couple of supposedly evil lives, is as praiseworthy as killing the people Roy asks him to. The second has to do with what we’ve now learned about the reason he released the allosaurus: that Belkar panicked at his own decision and didn’t know what to make of it. Under this interpretation, Belkar believes he had a one-time moment of weakness and worries that if Roy knew about it, he might not trust Belkar to do what needs to be done in the future. But not only is he wrong about what Roy’s reaction would be, he’s wrong about what that moment means, because I’m now with the group that believes that Belkar’s fake character growth, or at least his alliance with Mr. Scruffy, will lead to real character growth, at least in the short time he has before he inevitably dies – and perhaps Belkar’s line in the last panel suggests he realizes this. Perhaps it’s only now that he even realizes why he released the allosaurus to begin with.

Both interpretations also raise the question of why Ian doesn’t correct Belkar’s misconception, but I’ve been meaning to write a whole post on him…

NFL Schedule: Week 3

After seeing how the inclusion of records looked last week, I’ve decided to include RealClearSports.com’s consensus power rankings. Also, I found out that Westwood One is not the only game in town when it comes to Sunday afternoon NFL games, and have adjusted the former “WW1?” column accordingly. It now reads “NTR”, for “National Terrestrial Radio”, with Westwood One games marked with “WW1”, Compass games marked with “CMP”, and Sports USA games marked with “USA”. Finally, I have a new poll up for the first time in over a year, asking if I should keep doing the SEFL recaps for the remainder of the season. I wanted to minimize the amount of thinking I had to do, which hasn’t been happening; I’ll play out the remainder of the season, but just writing the recaps takes up time better spent on other things, like schoolwork. The poll will run through the Week 4 games, but if “No” is leading substantially by Tuesday I won’t do a Week 3 recap.

I have a feeling the Rams will at least cover; it’s possible the Ravens and Steelers are just both lousy (though not Andrew Luck-lousy) this year. Also, can someone tell me why there’s so little gambling information on the Monday Night game, and what information there is is inconsistent? The MXS for that game is very guesstimated.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#22(1-1) 19¾-23¼ #T26(0-2) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Spero Dedes, Steve Beuerlein 136 113 Will Cam Newton’s success finally lead to a win, or will Gabbert be this week’s big rookie QB?
(2-0) 24¼-20¾ (0-2) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 135 85 Lions picked a franchise QB once and look red-hot now; could the Vikings follow suit?
#21(1-1) 18¾-21¼ #23(1-1) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora USA 139 149 Two teams looking to discover their identities.
(0-2) 19¼-21¾ (1-1) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Don Criqui, Randy Cross 117 94 Is Tony Sparano on the hot seat already?
(2-0) 30½-23½ #14(2-0) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon CMP 93 106 The Bills want to prove their start isn’t a fluke, but beating Brady and the Pats will hardly be easy.
#17(1-1) 20-28½ (1-1) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa WW1 112 91 The Dream Team starts divisional play against Eli and the Giants.
#T26(1-1) 18-24½ #18(1-1) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 92 104 Two teams successfully bouncing back from Week 1 losses.
(2-0) 24¼-28¼ (1-1) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 86 148 Texans face a huge road test against Drew Brees and the Saints.
(2-0) 22¼-19¼ #19(1-1) Sun 4:05 PM 712 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms 85 134 The Raiders have had good offensive days, but not against a defense as strong as the Jets.
(1-1) 23-19 #25(0-2) Sun 4:05 PM 713 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 92 138 Which is more of a fluke, the Ravens losing to the Titans or the NFC West faves losing to the Giants?
(0-2) 15-29½ (1-1) Sun 4:05 PM 714 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts USA 137 91 Chiefs continue their descent towards Luck while the Chargers look to recover from the Brady Experience.
(1-1) 22-23½ #16(1-1) Sun 4:15 PM 717 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin CMP 112 94 Falcons and Bucs seek to lay claim to the South, or at least top-two with the Saints.
#20(1-1) 23¼-19¾ (0-2) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 93 139 Which will stink less, the Cardinals D or the Seahawks O?
(2-0) 25-21 #12(1-1) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver WW1 86 135 If the Bears want to return to the playoffs, they’ll have to beat their Super Bowl champion rivals.
(1-1) 25-14½ #30(0-2) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Colts can’t get their offense going without Manning, and the Steelers D won’t help.
#15(2-0) 20-25* (1-1) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 Two rivals who plain don’t like each other, as Dallas tries to prove the ‘Skins start is a fluke.

Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League: Week 2 Recap

Despite having the same number of players in play, an hour into the early games Commissioner’s Favorite and Takedown Glaze had substantial leads over Worldwide Leaders and Politically Incorrect respectively. Both teams were admittedly propelled by their defenses, but RTFS had their defense in play as well. It wasn’t until after an hour of play that The SportsLine could muster a single point on the board, by which point Wisdom of Crowds had already redeemed itself for the previous week’s low-scoring performance with 34 points.

Ron Burgundy All-Stars held a four-and-a-half-point lead over College Busters, but the real close game was between Inside Information and Team Infograph. After an hour-plus, the score in that game stood: FLEA 13.5, USAT 13.3. That’s a .2 lead for Inside Information. Despite having fewer players, Inside Information looked more likely to end the early games with the lead, as USAT had their defense in play. Calvin Johnson had already had a good day with a touchdown scored. In a bad sign for Indy Tea Party, Swimsuit Issues already had a narrow lead, even though FFTB had only one more player yet to play. They had to hope the Pats defense would lock down. SI had the Ravens defense in play, but they were arguably outperforming their bonuses with an INT in the books.

By halftime, College Busters, Indy Tea Party, and Inside Information had managed to take decent-sized leads, though Team Infograph was still putting up a close fight. Ray Rice’s long touchdown catch was golden for YHOO, while Dwayne Bowe and Kenny Britt proved especially valuable for FFTB.

Worldwide Leaders could not be kept down for long, and came roaring back in the second half, thanks to Fred Jackson’s long TD run and strong performances by Mike Wallace, James Starks, and to some extent Fred Davis. ESPN had the most points of anyone with at least three still to play and a 24-point lead heading into the late games. The SportsLine would pick up the scoring but was still badly behind Wisdom of Crowds heading into the late games, where CBS hoped to catch up on the strength of having five players active, including Arian Foster, to PROS’ one. PROS ended the early games having almost matched their total Week 1 scoring. Politically Incorrect, always respectable, pulled ahead of Takedown Glaze in the second half on the back of Aaron Rodgers’ comeback against the Panthers, but would see Knowshon Moreno declared a late scratch, robbing it of up to 12 points Darren Sproles would have provided. Would it be the difference?

Ron Burgundy All-Stars retook the lead from College Busters in the second half as Cam Newton attempted to match Rodgers’ comeback and Jahvid Best capped a 57-yard, 2 TD day. Indy Tea Party pulled away to a 56-point lead as Darren McFadden ran the ball up and down the field, waiting for SI’s other players and the Pats defense. And Inside Information and Team Infograph continued matching each other stride-for-stride, ending the early games with USAT ahead by only two, and also losing Brandon Lloyd to a late scratch.

Of ESPN’s two active players, Neil Rackers scored nearly as many points as Matt Schaub by halftime of the late games, matching iffy performances by Commissioner’s Favorite’s players (Vincent Jackson had the most at 9.2 points). None of The SportsLine’s players were outscoring Owen Daniels individually, and CBS remained well behind. Team Infograph would pull away in the third quarter behind another strong performance by Tom Brady.

By the end of the late games, Jackson and Phillip Rivers had caught fire and Commissioner’s Favorite had roared into the lead, but NFL was out of players and Worldwide Leaders had a good chance with both the Falcons defense and Hakeem Nicks still to play. The SportsLine looked certain to lose with Wisdom of Crowds ahead by 17 with three players still to play and CBS only having Ahmad Bradshaw; the lead would balloon to nearly 28 after the Sunday Night game, and eventually ended CBS 69.6, PROS 96.94. Takedown Glaze roared into the lead on the back of a strong performance by Ryan Mathews, ending the contest FOX 92.02, RTFS 82.02 – the 10-point margin meaning starting Sproles would have, indeed, made the difference. Ron Burgundy All-Stars roared into a 30-point lead during the late games on the back of Andre Johnson and Frank Gore, while Indy Tea Party ended with 113.14 points, second to Commissioner’s Favorite, leaving Swimsuit Issues with 33 points to make up with three players left to play.

Michael Vick carved up the Falcons defense and Worldwide Leaders only made up four points. On the other hand, Michael Turner and the Eagles defense brought College Busters within seven and a half of Ron Burgundy All-Stars… but only KFFL had someone left to play. YHOO 103.26, KFFL 123.78. LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Macklin had such good days that Swimsuit Issues went from 33 points down to nearly 20 points ahead, with one more still to play vs. Indy Tea Party’s none, and would end the day already on top of the weekly points standings (with NFL and FFTB having no one left to play and KFFL 22 points behind) and ahead of YHOO for the overall two-week points lead. They would defeat Indy Tea Party 136.5-113.14. Finally, despite Vick Inside Information had too big a deficit to make up, especially when Tony Gonzalez had a good night as well, and that match ended FLEA 51.78, USAT 81.32.

Only two matches would have their outcome determined Monday night, and in only one case was the outcome in much question. Worldwide Leaders needed 12 points from Hakeem Nicks to beat Commissioner’s Favorite, while The SportsLine had little chance of making up a huge deficit, needing a ginormous game from Bradshaw and nothing at all from Rams kicker Josh Brown. Nicks would fall short, NFL 121.22, ESPN 117.1.

Takedown Glaze had to cut Jamaal Charles after he was knocked out for the year. Inside Information cut Derrick Ward and replaced him with the Texans defense. For Wisdom of Crowds, Owen Daniels is out and Matt Hasselbeck is in. Knowshon Moreno is out and Eric Decker is in for RTFS. (If those three, all of which don’t provide waiver wire picks for various reasons, remain in the bottom three spots in any order next week, I may have to dump the waiver wire.) Takedown Glaze brought in Dexter McCluster. Isaac Redman is in for Team Infograph and Ricky Williams is out. Brandon LaFell is in and Antonio Brown is out for The SportsLine. Braylon Edwards is out and David Nelson is in for Ron Burgundy All-Stars. Worldwide Leaders passes. Ed Dickson is in and Todd Heap is out for Indy Tea Party. Commissioner’s Favorite passes. Earl Bennett is out and Andy Dalton is in for College Busters. Finally, Swimsuit Issues nabs Nate Washington and DeMarco Murray, cutting Ryan Grant and Joseph Addai. Team Infograph also dumps Chad Johnson for Titus Young, while Takedown Glaze cuts Chris Cooley in favor of Preston Parker.

Just as soon as I got back to them…

…full-fledged webcomics reviews may be going back on the back burner for the foreseeable future.

I have a large backlog of posts I intended to get done over the summer, mostly sports-related, that I wanted to get as much of done as possible BEFORE school started. That… didn’t quite happen. I also just hit two of my largest feeds in my ongoing attempt to catch up on the RSS feeds I abandoned two years ago, and one of them will trigger a rather involved project. And there’s still one more project I’d like to follow up on.

However, one of the posts in my backlog is a VERY involved and interesting series on the state of the comics medium. Stay tuned for that.

Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League: Week 1 Recap

I’ve firmed up the regular season schedule:

  1. NFL v. FLEA, PROS v. ESPN, RTFS v. CBS, KFFL v. FOX, FFTB v. YHOO, USAT v. SI
  2. ESPN v. NFL, FLEA v. USAT, SI v. FFTB, YHOO v. KFFL, FOX v. RTFS, CBS v. PROS
  3. NFL v. CBS, PROS v. FOX, RTFS v. YHOO, KFFL v. SI, FFTB v. USAT, ESPN v. FLEA
  4. NFL v. PROS, YHOO v. USAT, FOX v. FFTB, CBS v. KFFL, ESPN v. RTFS, SI v. FLEA
  5. FFTB v. NFL, USAT v. ESPN, SI v. CBS, YHOO v. FOX, FLEA v. RTFS, KFFL v. PROS
  6. NFL v. KFFL, CBS v. USAT, FOX v. SI, ESPN v. FFTB, PROS v. RTFS, YHOO v. FLEA
  7. RTFS v. NFL, KFFL v. ESPN, USAT v. FOX, FFTB v. CBS, SI v. YHOO, FLEA v. PROS
  8. NFL v. FOX, CBS v. ESPN, FLEA v. FFTB, USAT v. KFFL, SI v. RTFS, YHOO v. PROS
  9. NFL v. YHOO, ESPN v. FOX, PROS v. SI, RTFS v. USAT, KFFL v. FFTB, CBS v. FLEA
  10. SI v. NFL, YHOO v. ESPN, FOX v. CBS, FLEA v. KFFL, FFTB v. RTFS, USAT v. PROS
  11. USAT v. NFL, CBS v. YHOO, ESPN v. SI, PROS v. FFTB, RTFS v. KFFL, FOX v. FLEA
  12. v. , v. , v. , v. , v. , v. #12
  13. v. , v. , v. , v. , v. , v. #12
  14. v. , v. , v. #12, v. , v. , v.

Note that in the last three weeks, will be the team with the best win-loss record after 11 weeks, but -#12 will be picked in order of total points scored.

Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees got Politically Incorrect and Swimsuit Issues, respectively, off to a rollicking start with their offensive explosion in Thursday’s kickoff game. Brees scored more, but RTFS benefited more from the game with the winning effort by the Packers defense. But RTFS came out of the game with a relatively small lead over The SportsLine, no thanks to Greg Jennings also having a big day.

With two exceptions, the scores an hour into the first round of games could all be explained by the number of players active. But Indy Tea Party was woefully underproducing with only four points, worst among all teams, and was losing by over 30 points to the College Busters. Also, Team Infograph led Swimsuit Issues despite fewer players active, a lead that remained constant, though relatively small, thanks to a yeoman’s effort by the Bucs defense. As the Bucs allowed more points, though, SI retook the lead. SI’s Jets defense wouldn’t take the field until the Sunday Night game.

Another game where the outcome started to fall into place during the early Sunday games was Inside Information against Commissioner’s Favorite. Big days from Calvin Johnson and Michael Vick propelled FLEA to a 44-9 lead 90 minutes into the early games, arguably outperforming the five active players it had and casting doubt over whether NFL could catch up. Also by 90 minutes in, College Busters had actually already outscored Politically Incorrect and led Indy Tea Party by a whopping 60 points. At the half of the early games, Takedown Glaze led KFFL 40-28, Wisdom of Crowds led Worldwide Leaders and Swimsuit Issues led Team Infograph by 10 each, and Politically Incorrect maintained a 30-point lead over The SportsLine.

Indy Tea Party picked up more points in the second half, thanks to Kenny Britt’s big TD catch-and-run; meanwhile, the Ron Burgundy All-Stars pulled surprisingly close to Takedown Glaze in the third quarter, as Anquan Boldin and Andre Johnson caught fire, but Josh Freeman’s comeback attempt proved killer, as did (for a time) the start of the Vikings-Chargers game giving College Busters defensive bonuses, and when Fleaflicker came back from an extended outage shortly after the late games started, the scores were: FLEA 72-14 NFL; FOX 83-60 KFFL; ESPN 57-59 PROS; YHOO 86-38 FFTB; CBS 59-64 RTFS; and SI 81-51 USAT.

Worldwide Leaders had a chance to take a substantial lead in the late game with Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, and Fred Davis active, while Wisdom of Crowds only had Donovan McNabb. That they did: Nicks in particular had a big day and ESPN was the first team to end their week with 85.8 points, good for third place and a 22.5 point lead over Wisdom of Crowds with LaDainian Tomlinson still to play in the Sunday Night game. LT had a relatively pedestrian performance and the only match without Monday Night participants ended 85.7-71.86, ESPN winning. Scarily, Worldwide Leaders could have gone over 120 by starting Steve Smith of the Panthers; as it stood they wound up with the fewest points of any winner.

Cedric Benson had caught fire late to drive The SportsLine closer to Politically Incorrect, and CBS had a chance to take the lead with no RTFS players active if Ahmad Bradshaw and Vernon Davis caught fire and the Chargers’ defensive bonuses held up. That’s exactly what happened: Bradshaw had a big day and the Chargers picked off McNabb, and The SportsLine led by 2 early in the second half. But they could only increase that lead to 3.3 in the second half.

Commissioner’s Favorite needed to get out of the scoring basement with five players, including Philip Rivers and Adrian Peterson, active, despite Inside Information having three of their own. Tim Hightower’s gimme touchdown helped in that department, and Rivers also had a big day. NFL made it to 71 points by the end of the late games, only 10 behind Inside Information, who was hurt by the loss of Derrick Ward and Danny Amendola, and NFL had one more player yet to play than FLEA.

Beanie Wells also had a good day to help bring the Ron Burgundy All-Stars up to 72.88 points, needing 14.9 from the last player in the matchup to pass Takedown Glaze. One problem: that player was kicker Dan Carpenter. On Monday, he closed the final margin to 88.06-78.88, Takedown Glaze winning. College Busters and Swimsuit Issues finished the late games with huge leads over Indy Tea Party and Team Infograph, with YHOO boasting a whopping 105.5 points, nearly twenty more than the next-highest-scoring team, Takedown Glaze.

On Sunday Night, Inside Information counted on the Cowboys defense to top off their point total, while the Jets defense would pad Swimsuit Issues’ point total. Commissioner’s Favorite hoped Santonio Holmes could help them catch FLEA, while Politically Incorrect hoped Felix Jones could give them at least a temporary lead heading into Monday. Holmes had a decent day but never found the end zone, while the Cowboys defense had a stout enough performance, with 4 sacks and an INT, to pad FLEA’s lead just a little to 12 points for Reggie Bush to make up in the Monday Night game. Jones gave RTFS an 11-point lead over The SportsLine, while the Jets defense’s role in almost single-handedly causing the win caused Swimsuit Issues to move into second in total points, 15.24 points behind College Busters.

As the first Monday Night game progressed, the most interesting match shaped up to be that between Inside Information and Commissioner’s Favorite. Reggie Bush had a rather productive day, and NFL took the win on Bush’s touchdown with three and a half minutes left in the game, the final margin 92.9-89.48. Team Infograph also pulled surprisingly close to Swimsuit Issues when Tom Brady had a historic day (35.1 fantasy points), enough to shoot up into the top five, and enough for Brandon Lloyd to have a good chance to close the gap in the late game; however, he had no touchdowns and Team Infograph just barely fell short to Swimsuit Issues 107.06-100.68, the most points of any loser. The SportsLine, meanwhile, pulled well ahead of Politically Incorrect with Chad Henne having a superb day, Brandon Marshall doing well as well, and Davone Bess being underwhelming. If Arian Foster’s injury replacement Willis McGahee had 17.36 points, CBS could pass College Busters for the Week 1 points lead; however, McGahee managed only 4 yards.

The late game mattered little to the remaining two games. The SportsLine beat Politically Incorrect 119.24-87.4, and while Sebastian Janikowski’s incredible night pulled Indy Tea Party out of the points cellar, there was no beating a College Busters team with 14 more points than anyone else, and YHOO took the win 133.1-97.16. When all was said and done, Wisdom of Crowds would have the fewest points of the first week, followed by Ron Burgundy All-Stars.

KFFL had to cut done-for-the-year Nate Kaeding, but still has reach pick Dan Carpenter. Because FantasyPros doesn’t do waiver wire picks, I used a combination of Week 1 performances and Week 2 rankings to determine what they should do on the waiver wire, so Rex Grossman is in and Lance Moore is out. KFFL then nabbed Cam Newton to fill the empty spot; of their “priority additions”, Cadillac Williams and the Lions defense are already on teams and KFFL can’t add another WR without cutting one. With waiver wire order based solely on scoring, Worldwide Leaders was next, and decided not to get anything (also maxed out on WRs). Politically Incorrect will make waiver-wire decisions based solely on past performance; Jimmy Graham is gone, Scott Chandler is in. For Takedown Glaze, the Eagles’ Steve Smith is out and Devery Henderson is in. For Inside Information, Zach Miller is out and Early Doucet is in. Commissioner’s Favorite passes, while for Indy Tea Party, Austin Collie is out and Anthony Armstrong is in. Derrick Mason is out and Earnest Graham is in for Team Infograph, while Swimsuit Issues replaced Marcedes Lewis with Jacoby Jones. FLEA also replaced Kendall Hunter the Cowboys defense with the Niners defense, with Fox following by replacing the Vikings defense with the Raiders defense. FLEA also brought in Marcel Reece to replace Derrick Ward, cutting Hines Ward.

NFL Schedule: Week 2

I realized that last week’s schedule wasn’t given the Blog News tag, so… yeah, we’re doing this now. Check the Week 1 schedule for explanations. One change from last week: I’m now getting betting lines from Vegas.com, which was my intention from the start, but it wasn’t available last week. The main benefit, ultimately, is that I won’t have to sort out ties between various sources.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers WW1? SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
(0-1) 12¾-27¼ (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 713 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 139 93 Two playoff teams looking to bounce back from Week 1 losses.
(1-0) 20-23 (1-0) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 148 104 Both teams got surprise wins Week 1, but are they for real?
(1-0) 20¼-24¼ (1-0) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 91 112 Will the Cardinals defense do for Sexy Rexy what they did for Cam Newton?
(0-1 19-22 (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 104 113 McNabb looks to redeem himself for last week’s disappointing performance.
(1-0) 19¾-29¼ (1-0) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf Yes 136 85 Jags have won last three, but not against a Jets team this strong.
(1-0) 20-27 (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 712 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver 128 86 Saints looked great in a narrow losing effort. But it won’t be any easier getting past Da Bears.
(1-0) 28¼-18¼ (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora 94 117 Newton looked like a Pro Bowler last week, but the Packers aren’t the Cardinals.
(1-0) 22-16 (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 134 149 The Matt Hasselbeck era didn’t start off well, and the Ravens will be far tougher than the Jags.
(0-1) 18½-26½ (1-0) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Don Criqui, Randy Cross 137 135 After getting shellacked by the Bills, the Chiefs get a Lions team that looks like a playoff team.
(0-1) 21-18½ (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 106 92 The Kerry Collins era didn’t start well, but surely the Colts can do better against the Browns?
(0-1) 22¾-19¾ (1-0) Sun 4:05 PM 714 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 92 139 Romo seeks redemption against a team looking to stake their claim to the NFC West.
(1-0) 18-22 (0-1) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Spero Dedes, Steve Beuerlein 91 94 The Bengals try to spoil Orton’s attempt to shake off the Tebow chants.
(1-0) 23¼-30¼ (1-0) Sun 4:15 PM 717 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms 93 86 Brady won’t be able to repeat his historic performance against the Chargers defense.
(1-0) 25½-22½ (0-1) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts Yes 112 85 Texans’ quest for the playoffs is underway, and the team Brady torched should help.
(1-0) 26-23½ (0-1) Mon 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya Yes 92 93 The Dream Team makes their primetime debut as Vick returns to his old stomping grounds.
(0-1) 18¾-24¾ (0-1) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber Yes 92 93 Both teams need to recover from devastating Week 1 losses.

Cleaning up some notes on the sports television wars

So I made a big deal about the new Thursday Night Football contract coming down later this month, and it came out today that it’s probably not happening by the end of the year at least. Not that my post was completely useless, as it may well still happen in time to show up on the 2012 schedule (my guess is an announcement will come Super Bowl weekend), but it won’t be happening quite as quickly as I implied.

That came out in a press conference to announce ESPN re-upping with the NFL for the next decade, which like the PGA TOUR with CBS and NBC, was pretty much a formality, reported as early as January. It does mean, though, that combined with reported ongoing negotiations to re-up with the NFL’s other TV partners, the TNF package may be more than a two-year trial run, but may be another decade-long deal. Also, the scorecard now reflects NBC taking back the Belmont Stakes from ABC, which wasn’t announced until this past February.

3.5 4.5 2.5 .5 0

NFL Schedule: Week 1

This is a new feature I’m trying out that will undoubtedly suck up all of my time: the NFL schedule for each week, with all the information you could possibly want, including DirecTV Sunday Ticket channel numbers, announcers from Awful Announcing, and coverage maps from the506.com. (Click the network logo for the coverage map.) Teams with a golden outline hold a lineal title.

The numbers between the team logos cram a lot of gambling-related information into a small space. That is the MXS, or Median Expected Score, an amalgamation of the point spread and over/under number. The formula is: 2U+S=N, where N is the over/under number, S is the point spread, and U is the underdog’s MXS. The favorite’s MXS is simply U+S, so when you add the two together you get 2L+S.

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers WW1? SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
21½-26½ Thu 8:30 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya Yes 92 93 Let’s get back to football! Last two Super Bowl champions.
21½-19 Sun 1:00 PM 709 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 134 92 Defensive showdown between the NFC’s two best teams of the last regular season.
17¼-25¾ Sun 1:00 PM 706 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 136 137 No Manning, big problems: could this be the Texans’ year?
17-23 Sun 1:00 PM 708 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 117 91 Chiefs fans start getting the answer to the question: Was last year for real?
17½-19½ Sun 1:00 PM 707 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 149 135 Manning’s injury gives these teams hope, if they can get off on the right foot.
14½-21 Sun 1:00 PM 705 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 106 113 Will this intrastate rivalry kick off the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes?
24¼-19¾ Sun 1:00 PM 710 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 93 138 The Dream Team kicks off against the NFC West favorites.
17-19 Sun 1:00 PM 704 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms Yes 112 86 What better way to honor the 10th anniversary of 9/11 than one of the NFL’s hottest rivalries?
19½-21½ Sun 1:00 PM 711 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 128 94 People are feeling optimistic about the Lions. Will it prove well-founded?
16½-25 Sun 4:15 PM 713 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora Yes 139 93 The McNabb era starts in Minnesota, while the Chargers seek redemption.
20¼-17¼ Sun 4:15 PM 715 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver 92 86 More than an NFC East rivalry, it’s honoring the day that changed both cities forever.
15-22 Sun 4:15 PM 712 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 136 94 Fans hope new quarterbacks for both teams change their fortunes.
16-21½ Sun 4:15 PM 714 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 91 85 Harbaugh starts his coaching career against old college rival Carroll.
17¾-22¾ Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya Yes 92 93 It’s Ryan vs. Ryan as two highly-scrutinized teams square off.
26¼-19¼ Mon 7:00 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber Yes 92 93 Patriots begin their latest Super Bowl quest with a divisional showdown.
18¾-21¾ Mon 10:15 PM Brad Nessler, Trent Dilfer Yes 113 94 Close out the first week of the NFL season with an AFC West clash.

The Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League

Way back in 2007, during the very first year of Da Blog, I flirted with holding a simulated fantasy league to find out which site had the best experts, even going so far as holding a draft before the combined stress of that and counting up points by hand in Excel (good luck finding a site that will let you run every team in a league – even the one I chose I have to trick) forced me to abandon it right away. However, last year my thoughts turned towards trying again, so that’s what I’m going to do, even though other sites have sprung up to compare fantasy experts, and have gone as far as actually holding a league of the top experts.

Rosters are 16 players, with starters 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR, 1 DST, 1 K. (Maximums: 4 QB, 7 RB or WR, 3 TE, DST, or K.) Scoring is as follows, based on the general consensus of the rules of most leagues. I wound up designing the scoring rules for defensive yardage myself, because very few leagues have them by default and those that do have wildly differing philosophies. It would have been most fair to omit them entirely, but I went with realism over standards.

  • 4 points per passing TD
  • 6 points per TD (except QB passing)
  • 2 points per 2-point conversion
  • 1 point per 25 passing yards
  • 1 point per 10 running or receiving yards
  • -2 points per turnover (interceptions or lost fumbles)
  • 1 point per PAT
  • 3 points per field goal
  • 4 points per FG of 40-50 yards
  • 5 points per FG of >50 yards
  • 2 points per defensive turnover
  • 2 points per safety
  • 1 point per sack
  • 10 points for 0 points allowed
  • 7 points for <7 points allowed
  • 4 points for <14 points allowed
  • 1 point for <21 points allowed
  • 0 points for <28 points allowed
  • -1 point for <35 points allowed
  • -4 points for >35 points allowed
  • 10 points for <100 yards allowed
  • 7 points for <200 yards allowed
  • 4 points for <250 yards allowed
  • 1 point for <300 yards allowed
  • 0 points for <400 yards allowed
  • -1 point for <500 yards allowed
  • -4 points for >500 yards allowed

The way the schedule works, each team plays each other once and plays three other teams an additional time, for a total of 14 games. The team with the most overall points through 14 weeks is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs regardless of record. To ensure a balanced schedule, the schedule for weeks 12, 13, and 14 – the three additional games – will not be finalized until after Week 11. The entire schedule isn’t finalized yet. Roster moves are handled largely the same way they were going to be in 2007. The draft is being held Wednesday (I was going to do it sooner but I was waiting to see if Yahoo would have rankings that at least took into account the Chris Johnson signing), with the following first-round order; I restricted myself to sites that posted overall rankings instead of just positional rankings. Keep checking this page and my tweeter as the draft progresses.

  1. Commissioner’s Favorite (NFL.com): Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
  2. Worldwide Leaders (ESPN): Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
  3. The SportsLine (CBS): Arian Foster, RB, Texans
  4. Takedown Glaze (Fox): Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs (Note: I’m also using these very outdated rankings as the above-linked ones look too weird to be draft rankings as opposed to Week 1 rankings.)
  5. College Busters (Yahoo): Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
  6. Swimsuit Issues (SI): LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
  7. Team Infograph (USA Today): Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars
  8. Indy Tea Party (FFToolbox.com): Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders
  9. Ron Burgundy All-Stars (KFFL): Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
  10. Politically Incorrect (RealTime Fantasy Sports): Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
  11. Wisdom of Crowds (FantasyPros): Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers
  12. Inside Information (Fleaflicker): Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions (more after the jump)

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