Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 11 Picks

Week 11 (November 21):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Philadelphia
  • Prospects: 6-2 v. 5-3, with the Giants leading the most attractive division in the league and the Eagles a game back.
  • Protected games according to this: Packers-Vikings (FOX) and Colts-Patriots (CBS).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Jets (6-2)-Texans (4-4), Saints (6-3)-Seahawks (4-4), Falcons (6-2)-Rams (4-4), and Raiders (5-4)-Steelers (5-2).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: The Steelers are involved in the only alternate game involving two teams with winning records, but it won’t matter because…
  • Analysis: …I said last week that the Eagles would have to lose for any flex to happen, and not only did they and the Giants win, everything that happened was generally catastrophic for a flex, although an Eagles loss might still have opened the door for Raiders-Steelers. As is, though, the Steelers can only match the Giants’ record while the Raiders have one more loss than the Eagles, so…
  • Final prediction: New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (no change).
  • Actual selection: New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (matches prediction, no change).

The NFL Lineal Title has been updated as well, with the shocker of the Browns claiming the main title. I predicted after their hard charges last season that one of the Browns or Raiders would make the playoffs this year, and the Raiders are making me look smart, while the Browns, despite starting slow, could yet go on a hard charge… and have zero shot of cracking the Ravens-Steelers-AFC-East-Loser oligarchy.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 8

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Jets have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since five other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. (So naturally this turned into the Year of Parity!) A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late 2008 but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 18, CBS 17; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 21, CBS 20. With this rule in place, Weeks 12, 13, and 16 cannot be flexed away from AFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 11, 14, 15, and 17.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 21):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Philadelphia
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 4-3, with the Giants leading the most attractive division in the league and the Eagles a game back. Extremely good chance to keep its spot, but the NFL may want to think twice if the Eagles fall to .500, tied at second with the Redskins.
  • Protected games according to this: Packers-Vikings (FOX) and Colts-Patriots (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Jets-Texans saw both teams lose to fall to 5-2 v. 4-3, which can’t overcome the tentative-game bias. Chiefs-Cardinals is out with the Cardinals falling below .500. A few long shots: Redskins-Titans at 5-3 v. 4-4, Saints-Seahawks at 5-3 v. 4-3, Falcons-Rams at 5-2 v. 4-4, and Raiders-Steelers at 5-2 v. 4-4.
  • Analysis: It’ll be very difficult for any game to steal the spot. The Seahawks can help their own case by beating the Giants, but a Giants win might be better for flexing in general by making the game lopsided. Any flex depends on the Eagles losing, but that would shrink them down to .500, throwing the doors open. Jets-Texans CAN make the flex look attractive if both teams win; even a Texans win and a Jets loss could be tempting, but it might not be enough to overcome the tentative game bias and the name team factor. (Locking the Jets out the rest of the year shouldn’t be a problem; there are no other good available games the rest of the way, and it’s doubtful they’ll need to beat the lowly Bills Week 17.) Both Redskins and Titans have a bye, so they’re out since Giants-Eagles can only match them, not fall behind. If Seahawks and Saints win, will the NFL be tempted by 6-3 v. 5-3 vis-a-vis 5-3 v. 4-4? Rams have a bye, so either Falcons-Rams becomes lopsided (6-2 v. 4-4, and Giants-Eagles would still have division implications), inferior, or equivalent, and therefore out. Raiders-Steelers may be too lopsided already, and the Steelers don’t play until Monday; 5-3 v. 5-4 wouldn’t be lopsided, and slightly better than Giants-Eagles, but have the Raiders’ decade of mediocrity sullied their name-team status? (As with the Jets, locking the Steelers out of future NBC appearances, setting aside the VERY unlikely “let’s flex out of Steelers-Ravens” scenario, doesn’t lock them out of any good games or any potential playoff-deciding game with the Browns Week 17.) I reiterate that there’s a very slim chance of any flex at all, but a 4-4 Eagles squad has to make the NFL at least consider the flex.

Week 12 (November 28):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Indianapolis
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-5; time will tell if Sunday’s win was the start of the annual Chargers charge, but they may be desperate for at least one Colts loss to keep the game from looking lopsided. They have a bye Week 10, so they can’t make it back to .500 and absolutely have to beat the Texans this week for this game to have a chance to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Eagles-Bears (FOX) and Jags-Giants (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend usually means a paucity of good games, but sadly for Colts-Chargers, not this year, especially with the Cowboys’ struggles. Four games currently involve only teams with three or fewer losses: Titans-Texans at 5-3 v. 4-3, Packers-Falcons at 5-3 v. 5-2, Bucs-Ravens at 5-2 v. 5-2, and Chiefs-Seahawks at 5-2 v. 4-3. All involve iffy markets, so the name team Packers are in good shape, but Bucs-Ravens remains a battle of two-loss teams. As for how Colts-Chargers can keep its spot? It’ll be difficult: Bucs-Ravens can get to 5-4 v. 5-4 at worst and Colts-Chargers 5-4 v. 4-5 at its least lopsided, which might mean the tentative-game bias, name team factor, and feeling the Chargers are on their hard charge would work in their favor… if the other games cooperate.

Week 13 (December 5):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 5-2, potentially deciding the AFC North. Extremely good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Colts (FOX). This week has only one good CBS game but a better tentative compared to the other CBS unprotected candidate last week.
  • Other possible games: Falcons-Bucs involves two teams with the same records as Steelers-Ravens, and at the moment is the only serious flex candidate, but even it could need a perfect storm. Redskins-Giants, Jags-Titans, and Rams-Cardinals all involve 4-4 teams.

Week 14 (December 12):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
  • Prospects: 4-3 v. 1-6; an NFC East game always = ratings, but the Cowboys’ struggles are becoming hard to watch. This is NBC’s only shot at a Cowboys game during the flex scheduling period, but they could come in to this game 3-9 or something gruesome like that, maybe already mathematically out of the playoffs; its only shot at keeping its spot may be if it’s the game Romo comes back in, and that probably won’t be known 12 days in advance. On the other hand, look at the alternatives…
  • Protected games: Patriots-Bears (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bucs-Redskins, Rams-Saints, and Jags-Raiders all involve teams at .500, but they’re the best games you have. A lot depends upon what those .500 teams do, but I’m not optimistic about the Jags.

Week 15 (December 19):

  • Tentative game: Green Bay @ New England
  • Prospects: 6-1 v. 5-3, a bit lopsided but both teams have sole possession of their respective division leads and are within a half-game of the best record in their respective conferences, so you have the Super Bowl Preview angle.
  • Protected games: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Eagles-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Saints-Ravens involves two teams within one game of the best record in their respective conferences and a half-game of the division lead. Texans-Titans and Falcons-Seahawks are also options, with Jags-Colts and Chiefs-Rams as dark horses.

Week 16 (December 26)

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Cincinnati
  • Prospects: 2-5 v. 3-5; it looks like the T.Ocho experiment isn’t working out, meaning the Chargers’ late-season surge will only serve to make this game lopsided, especially since, even if the Bengals go on a run of their own, they can’t break past the Ravens and Steelers.
  • Protected games: Jets-Bears (CBS) and Giants-Packers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Chiefs-Titans and Seahawks-Bucs both involve two teams above .500. Colts-Raiders and Redskins-Jaguars are also options.

Week 17 (January 3):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

2010 College Football Rankings – Week 9

Both lineal titles are updated… and with the fall of #18 Michigan State and Missouri, the BCS Title picture has dramatically clarified.

There are exactly two BCS conference unbeaten teams, and much as Boise State and TCU, which expected to benefit from Alabama and Ohio State losses, don’t like it, if they win out they can punch their ticket to the national title game. Neither has a lineal title at the moment, though there is a very good chance Florida’s Princeton-Yale Title could find itself at stake in the SEC title game. (Florida is just barely outside the Top 25 this week.)

If Auburn or Oregon lose, that’s when all hell will break loose. Boise and TCU will claim they deserve to get in (assuming TCU gets past Utah this week), but Alabama, the Big 12 Title winner, and based on the C Ratings, Ohio State will have very legitimate claims. We could be in for another BCS Mess.

Other thoughts on the new C Ratings:

  • Alabama, as far as most people are concerned, is consolidating their position as the best 1-loss team. How much of that is starting the season in the country? As noted above, they’ll have a legit case if they win out and they will be a trap game for their rival, but they might be overrated at the moment. Ohio State continues to be ranked behind #23 Wisconsin in the BCS, restraining their ranking, as people continue to read too much into the outcome of one game (a road loss to a team that beat their best non-conference opponent, mediocre Arizona State, by one point at home). Arizona continues to be underrated and behind Stanford… but as Rece Davis pointed out on “BCS Countdown”, that could change in a hurry if they beat the other elite Pac-10 teams, starting with Stanford this week. If it weren’t for their already-lofty C Rating, I’d think that would lead to people overreacting to a few games. What motivation does #21 USC have the rest of the way.
  • Baylor-#12 Oklahoma State will be for at least a share of the Big 12 South lead. Yes, BAYLOR is your current Big 12 South leader. Meanwhile, Nebraska is at least as good as Oklahoma. The last year of the Big 12 as we knew it suddenly flip-flopped the roles of the divisions. (Baylor has a terrible SoS and neither Baylor nor Oklahoma State has played the Sooners, which could be an effective Big 12 South title game.)
  • ACC Madness: #14 Virginia Tech leads the Coastal by two games, unbeaten in conference while everyone else has two conference losses. V-Tech hasn’t played any of the two-loss teams yet, though, so two losses could take it all away; they play all three in a row starting with G-Tech Thursday night, but Miami (FL) at the end of the string is the only one in positive B Points. #20 NC State’s win over #22 Florida State earned them respect in the BCS Standings; the Atlantic is anyone’s guess between those two and Maryland, who hasn’t played either yet. Clemson, of all teams, is the only ACC team not already noted in positive B Points.
  • What are the chances the Princeton-Yale Title is on the line in the SEC Title game? Pretty good; #15 South Carolina is in the lead in the East in the standings, the BCS, and the C Ratings, and the Spurrier Bowl is the only game that matters to them in terms of clinching the division. Troy and Clemson afterwards are trap games, though, both on the first page. Florida has one more conference loss and so need to avoid a loss to Vanderbilt to make the Spurrier Bowl a true effective East title game; otherwise it lets Georgia and Vandy back in it if South Carolina loses to Arkansas and Florida. #16 LSU could sneak away with the SEC West if they upset ‘Bama and Auburn loses to both Georgia and ‘Bama; if that chain of events lands them in the national title game a LOT of people will throw fits.
  • #17 Iowa skyrocketed onto the top 25 with their win over Michigan State. I think they were in negative B Points last week. Fresno State could be a trap game for #19 Nevada. Hawaii makes three WAC teams in the Top 25, which seems unprecedented, just in time for the big Boise State game (also for the Broncos’ lineal title). The WAC’s conference rating is better than the Mountain West and they have more Top 25 teams. Does Boise State actually deserve more benefit of the doubt for their conference this year than TCU? Can Nevada keep this up and keep the Mountain West a Big 3 post-realignment?
  • #25 Pitt once again populates the Top 25 with a Big East team. The BCS, on the other hand, is deserted of Big East teams, probably because of the Notre Dame loss. But the Big East has a lot of parity, and no team has more than two conference losses, so their task is far from over. But they’ve already beaten Syracuse, so they can take one loss to any team and still punch a ticket to the BCS. West Virginia is STILL not that far outside the Top 25.

Best game of week: TCU @ Utah, 3:30pm ET, CBS CS (do not get me started, even with a free preview!)
Complete C Ratings

Finding Common Ground and Starting the Debate

We’ve seen two different viewpoints, two very different perspectives, on the current state of the union. You can see from today’s posts how heated and diametrically opposed the two sides are in our present political climate, and honestly, I don’t actually believe the posts I wrote would do much to convince someone on either side.

And yet, there actually is some common ground between the two sides, although some of this common ground may be believed more by one side than the other, and each side holds similar views of their own and the other side. Both state their faith in the greatness of America as the beacon of hope in the world, as a place where you can be anything you want to be, though Republicans are more adamant about it (and tend to deny the opposition their similar belief). Both sides claim that the opposition’s policies are bad for the economy; both want to protect against terrorism in different ways. Both accuse their opposition of needing to wake up to the “real world”, and implicitly, that their own position is rational while the opposition’s is emotional. (On the one hand, Democrats are emotionally attached to the plight of the poor while Republicans see the poor as a necessary side effect of capitalism; Republicans are emotionally attached to their limited-government, free-market principles while being allegedly blinded to their limitations.)

Both sides claim to have America on their side, claiming that most Americans believe in their principles (though the Republicans seem to have more credibility) and that they have America’s best interests at heart, and accuse the other side of being pushed by interests out to squash the message of their own side by spreading misinformation – “big corporations” in the case of the left and the “liberal media” in the case of the right – and this explains the focus on media bias, since if the media weren’t biased everyone would obviously believe their own side.

But perhaps most importantly, the difference between the parties comes down to a difference in priorities, and at least at first glance, these priorities aren’t incompatible with one another. Republicans are concerned with limiting the size of government and maximizing the freedom of business to serve as the engine of the economy; Democrats are concerned with ending poverty and the equitable distribution of the wealth. You will even see Democrats claim that their desire to reduce the influence of the military is partly a reflection of limited-government principles, and Republicans claim that unrestrained capitalism will actually make the poor better off (the familiar “trickle-down economics”). Both sides do recognize the force of the other’s priorities, at least under certain circumstances; they just differ on which to side with when there’s a conflict. Democrats claim that helping the poor is a moral prerogative while one can’t be dogmatically opposed to all government; Republicans claim that the total amount of wealth in the system is more important than how it’s distributed.

Here’s where the conflict comes. At least in theory, the Republicans are right to claim that, if the wealth were perfectly evenly distributed, no one would have any incentive to work because they couldn’t get ahead of anyone else. (There are a few problems with this theory, but we’ll assume it for now.) Similarly, if the government took 100% of your income, you wouldn’t have any incentive to work because no matter how much you earned, all of it would go to the government. (This is a simplified version of the problem with applied communism.) Therefore, any wealth inequity produced by capitalism should be allowed to stand, or else you’re robbing the capitalists’ incentive to keep producing more wealth. Any effort to smooth out wealth inequities results in a reduction of the total wealth coming out of the system, although Democrats deny this. Further, any government interference, such as a tax, in the machinery of capitalism reduces the profits earned by the firm producing goods, and accordingly, reduces the amount of product produced by the firm.

So a limited government, in this model, is a precondition to the smooth workings of business, which may or may not naturally create a gap between rich and poor. A gap between rich and poor is, therefore, one possible consequence of limited government, or at least limited government in certain areas. (The argument applies more broadly when you argue, as Republicans are wont to do, that in general, people following their natural inclinations without government interference, only government protection, results in the best overall outcome for the economy.)

It does not follow, however, that the converse is true, that closing the gap between rich and poor requires a governmental solution. At least in theory, even the free market can solve some problems of wealth inequality, even if you don’t agree with trickle-down economics per se, so Republicans may be excused if they’re skeptical about Democrats’ belief in small government and their claim that government involvement is just what works to help the poor. You will sometimes even see Republicans claim that government interference itself is actually a cause, or even the cause, of wealth inequality. On the other hand, Democrats argue that, if closing the gap between rich and poor creates more consumers, it could have a positive effect on the economy that outweighs the negative effect. Now that we’ve reached this point in the debate, Democrats and Republicans could start brandishing numbers and studies backing their respective viewpoints, arguing over whether it’s better to limit government or help the poor, but they can also start debating ideas that synthesize both their priorities, rendering such debate over priorities unnecessary. (One is at the above link.)

We agree that America is the best country on Earth, the symbol for the ideals of democracy and freedom around the world, and a place where the lowliest of children, at least ideally, can grow up to become a titan of industry, though we may disagree on how realistic that is. We agree that we need to be attuned to the way the real world works and not become overly attached to our principles, and work to achieve what is best for America. We agree that, necessity aside, too much government can strip us of our freedoms and make us less happy and less prosperous, that absolute power corrupts absolutely, that even at low levels it leads to confusing and expensive bureaucracy, and that this has been proven in the past. We agree that, necessity aside, the gap between rich and poor and the existence of poverty is not something we like.

If we all admit that we are all in agreement on these four principles, it will not necessarily be easy to extend the common ground from there, especially when we are prone to disagree on basic facts, but if we focus on these principles we can use them as a framework to find solutions to our problems and disagreements that we can agree on. Some of these solutions may not be comfortable for one side or the other; they may represent a major concession. Then the question becomes to find out why one side or the other is uncomfortable, and either to explain why such things are not problems, or to find some other solution that takes those problems into account. Sometimes Republicans may have to accept a governmental solution because the cost for some group of people is too much; Democrats may have to accept a less equitable solution because the cost in government control is too much. And sometimes, we won’t be able to find a middle ground in this calculus because the difference in the proposed solutions comes down to the difference in priorities, and neither can be said to totally outweigh the other. Hopefully this last class will turn out to be smaller than it now seems.

Over the next few days, weeks, and months (I originally intended this past week but was stupid and procrastinated for two weeks, just as I’ve been procrastinating on this whole series all summer), I’ll be making several posts intended to illustrate how we can debate the issues by laying out our positions and trying to adjudicate between them. Rather than yelling and name-calling, I will model how we can have a civil debate by focusing on the issues themselves, recognizing our opponents’ concerns and reacting to them rather than dismissing them out of hand, and always keeping in mind our agreement on the four principles – and potentially more that will come out over the course of the debate. I can’t say that we will come to an absolute best solution for every problem, or that if we do it’ll be the right one, but I hope to bring each side to an understanding of their opposition and either a moderation of their perspective or at least a clarification of it through the perspective of the opposition. In short, rather than merely calling to “restore sanity” as Jon Stewart will do on Saturday, I’ll be trying to show how we can actually do it.

It won’t be easy, it won’t be pretty (these will still be emotionally charged debates), I can’t guarantee any sort of success, and I certainly can’t guarantee that I’ll singlehandedly heal the rift between left and right in this country, certainly not before the election, but someone needs to start the dialogue. And it needs to start by doing what I’ve tried to do: explain each side’s position in terms explicable to the other. Even if the dialogue is just me publishing the debate going on in my own head, an abstract liberal and conservative talking to each other is better than nothing. My hope is that real liberals and conservatives will take up where I leave off and continue it – and maybe then we can start to heal the rift.

The Liberal Case to a Conservative

Click here to find out what this is all about.

Sometimes I wonder how a Republican can stand by, in good conscience, and support some of the things he supports, oppose some of the things he opposes.

How can you stand by and watch as millions of Americans suffer in poverty, without health insurance, without jobs? How can you stand by and watch as the top 5% hoard more than half of the wealth and live in opulence while millions go hungry? How can you stand by and do nothing as big corporate CEOs practically get away with murder at the expense of the American people? How can you let children of poor families go to school in dilapidated, worn-down schoolhouses and living in dangerous neighborhoods where they’re constantly exposed to drugs and crime while children of rich families get every privledge imaginable, sent to the best schools and isolated from the real world? For all your Christian rhetoric, how can you call yourselves Christians and let all this happen?

It’s wrong, it’s unfair, and it’s – dare I say it – un-American. I completely agree that America is – or at least should be – the greatest nation on Earth. America is supposed to be the land of opportunity, where even a humble little boy from a small town can grow up to become President of the United States. “Give us your tired, your hungry, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.” But I don’t dogmatically and religiously believe that just because we say it’s so necessarily makes it true, and right now, for millions of Americans, that American dream is just that: a dream. (And when the dream does come true, it’s not exclusive to America.) They’re trapped in misery and feel powerless to escape, not even having a chance to win, because powerful forces want them to stay where they are. How can we live up to our ideals if we don’t give them what they need?

But you don’t care about that. America can go ahead and suffer for all you care, so long as you get to keep your sacred cows of “limited government” and “unrestrained capitalism”. Well, it’s time to wake up and see the real world, because all it’s gotten us is increased concentration of the wealth and naked greed – greed, incidentially, that isn’t good for the economy, and neither is poverty where people don’t have money to put into the economy. We’ve tried trickle-down economics, we’ve passed huge tax cuts for the rich, and it doesn’t work. Big corporations and rich people don’t care about America as a whole, only their own bottom line. How can anyone honestly feel admiration rather than shame and outrage at the obscenely wealthy? In this context, fears of “expanding government” seem trivial and petty. Government is not the problem, but misuse of governmental power; in this country, “big government” is a myth. We are a democracy, and government is supposed to work for all of us, and it can be a powerful ally.

And Republicans don’t “reduce the size of government” like they’re always talking about anyway. Every time Republicans come to power, they slash funding for services Americans need (they even tell you they’re going to repeal health care reform!), they privatize others to companies that only care about the almighty dollar, but then they turn around and spend, spend, spend on the military. Reagan and the Bushes, they all saw ballooning deficits, while we actually saw a surplus under Clinton. We saw Bush II send our young men to fight and die in Iraq, a country that had nothing to do with 9/11, to follow the imperial dreams of the neocons. It’s a policy that has led us to be hated around the world; we were once seen as the beacon of freedom around it, but policies like these are why the terrorists hate us.

America spends many times more on its military than any other nation; in fact we spend twice as much per person than the total income of two-thirds of the world’s population. We need to be united by our common humanity; America is just antagonizing the other nations of the world, even our alleged allies, and it’s ultimately making America less safe, not more. America can’t keep being the policeman of the world. Let’s stop fighting each other and start loving each other; let’s stop the killing and bombing and start the feeding and caring.

But no. Big, moneyed interests support the status quo, and money talks. It’s these big corporations with an interest in the status quo that own the big news networks; the notion of a “liberal media” is just cover for how they push their conservative agenda. Journalists may be liberal, but that’s because they see everything that’s happening around the world; the organization they work for won’t publish anything the boss won’t allow. And the big corporations spend billions of dollars spreading misinformation, trying to convince you they really do have your best interests at heart, even though they’ve proved time and time again that they don’t. Just because everyone believes something doesn’t make it true, and there are a lot of people who have spent many years trying to figure out the best way to do things. Most Americans would be on board with the progressive agenda in a heartbeat once they knew what it was, but the big corporations want to make sure you remain in the dark, and just demonize it as the work of “liberal elitists”.

And it’s not just the big corporations keeping ordinary Americans down. There are forces out to take away a woman’s right to choose and take away her control over her own body, to take away the right of gays to serve in the military or to enjoy the same protections given to any other loving relationship, to make non-Christians, especially Muslims, feel unwelcome, to make a particular religious agenda, often a disturbingly hateful one, the national agenda over the objections of those it hurts and offends, to keep guns on the streets and Americans unsafe.

It seems Republicans’ respect for the Constitution doesn’t include the Bill of Rights (except the Second Amendment of course!), and “freedom” just means the freedom for corporations to lead us all into the ditch, especially with all the spying on Americans the last decade, not that you heard the corporate media talk much about that either. It’s funny to hear the Tea Partiers talk about comparing Obama to Hitler or Stalin and preaching about “government interference in people’s lives” when we really did flirt with Orwellian totalitarianism under Bush. Do you really think his party has changed? Or is the old saying really true: “fool me once…”

It’s time to wake up to reality and come together to solve America’s problems, not turn a blind eye to them and go around thinking everything is just hunky-dory when it’s not.

The Conservative Case to a Liberal

Click here to find out what this is all about.

The Founding Fathers knew what they were doing when they created this country and its constitution.

They had just seen first-hand what happens when people get too much power. They had just fought a war to free themselves from the tyrrany of King George. They knew they had to do something to make sure America never had to suffer like that again. They knew the power of government had to be limited to keep from interfering in the lives of ordinary Americans, because when Americans are left to their own devices, they have proven time and again that they can do some wonderful things. So they set out to create the freest nation on Earth, one that would be the envy of the world, a beacon of hope for oppressed peoples the world over, a place where anyone, with hard work and determination, could be anything they wanted to be.

For over two centuries that was exactly what America was, the greatest nation in the world. In the 1940s, when Nazi totalitarianism threatened to enslave the world, America made sure the world remained free. In the next half-century, when the threat of Communism threatened to spread all over the world, America remained the haven of free enterprise and took the lead at halting the spread of socialism and communism, culminating in the fall of the Berlin Wall and of the Soviet Union itself.

And yet, now, after America’s greatest triumph, liberal elitists like you want to turn America into its opposite. You want to reach the tentacles of government to every part of American lives, to make each and every one of us dependent on our government, to impose socialism – the very ideology we spent half a century fighting – right here in the USA, here, in the greatest stronghold for free enterprise in all the world! And they have the gall to claim to know better than most Americans because we won’t go along with their America-destroying ideas – as though we’re just a bunch of stupid morons who should stay in their place and let the smart people run things. We’ve seen what happens when government gets absolute power, but I suppose the liberal elitists never studied history while getting their fancy-schmancy college educations.

Or economics. Because as much as you’ve demonized so-called “Big Corporations”, the fact remains that capitalism is the greatest economic system in the world. Competition, free enterprise, these things are more powerful forces than the liberals realize. They put money in people’s pockets and allow a rising tide to lift all boats. Other countries have tried socialism; the Soviet Union is dead, China has moved towards capitalism (because they recognize what the liberal elitists don’t), and Europe takes all your money, crippling life and the economy. We don’t need an Europe-style welfare state where everyone is coddled and pampered. Private business knows what’s best for America, because their task is to get the most out of their money, and they don’t need government regulation mucking things up. Even when it’s benign, government doesn’t have any motivation to provide the best service, since it has a monopoly; private business has to compete, so it does have to provide the best service for the money.

I know how sad you are to see poor people out there, but it’s time to wake up to reality. If you put everyone on a level playing field, if you give people wealth without work, no one will have any incentive to work because no one will be able to get ahead. Success through hard work is the most fulfilling kind of success; the American dream isn’t “the government will magically make you rich”. You can’t make everyone mediocre; you need to free people to aspire to wealth, and that means you need to have wealthy people for them to aspire to. Otherwise, the economy stagnates, and we get passed by China and India.

And on top of that, you want to cripple our military? That hippie pacifist crap went out with the 60s. You want to know why those European socialist countries don’t have any military? It’s because they rely on the United States military, finest in the world, to protect them for them. It’s the US military that protects freedom from those who would destroy it. I’m not going to defend Bush’s intelligence tactics, much as he was slandered by the media – apparently Democrats got the wrong message when the voters rejected his expansion of government into people’s lives – but don’t deny the continued threat of al-Qaeda and other enemies of America. You gut the military, and who will keep America – and the world – safe from terrorists and rogue states who want to hold the world hostage with nuclear weapons? You want to live at their mercy, or would you rather go move there and coddle them and give in to their every demand? But that’s not all; you also want to take away guns from private citizens, leaving us defenseless (except for the government’s police of course!) against petty criminals and especially against our own government?

But – as if all that weren’t enough – to complete the socialist takeover, you want to take away God from our lives. You want to turn doctors into murderers, you want to undermine the sanctity of marriage between a man and a woman (because what’s the point of marriage if it can’t produce a child?), and most of all, you want to deny the Christian foundation of this country and turn it into a godless, atheist place. It’s one thing to destroy America, it’s another to guarantee yourself a place in hell and drag America down with it by offending God, much as you want to deny His existence. Yeah, try denying His existence when you’re burning in hell; pretending He isn’t there doesn’t make it so.

This is all common sense. So how come it’s now legitimate to talk about a complete government takeover of the health care industry, about expanding government to solve all our problems, about crippling this nation’s ability to defend itself and spread the message of freedom, about destroying the foundation of marriage and offending all God’s morals, and how come anyone who talks about how all this will destroy America – which is to say most Americans – is shouted down and insulted? It’s because the liberal media won’t tell the truth. Whenever the liberal media talks about businesses and their leaders, they always insult them and paint them as corrupt con-men. Apparently all the good business leaders give all their money away so the poor get a free ride. And all they ever talk about is the military killing people or committing some atrocity; they never talk about all the good the United States military does around the world, and in general all they talk about is what’s wrong with the world, not what’s right. In fact, anyone who so much as tells the truth or talks sense with Americans is slandered and painted as some extremist. And there is a liberal media; actual academic studies have proven it.

Well, America’s not going to take it anymore. America is a center-right nation, and it’s time to climb down from the ivory towers, stop looking at your beautiful abstract models that blind you to the real world, stop deluding yourselves into thinking Americans just need to know more about your little plot, and stop trying to lead America in a direction we see very well and don’t want to go. We’ve had enough of “change”. We like things just the way they are, thank you very much.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 7 (Now with non-speculative protected games!)

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Jets have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since five other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. (So naturally this turned into the Year of Parity!) A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late 2008 but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 18, CBS 17; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 21, CBS 20. With this rule in place, Weeks 12, 13, and 16 cannot be flexed away from AFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 11, 14, 15, and 17.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 21):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Philadelphia
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 4-3, with the Giants leading the most attractive division in the league and the Eagles a game back. Extremely good chance to keep its spot.
  • Protected games according to this: Packers-Vikings (FOX) and Colts-Patriots (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Jets-Texans, Chiefs-Cardinals, Redskins-Titans, and Saints-Seahawks, with Falcons-Rams and Raiders-Steelers as dark horses, all very dependent on how everything shakes out. Right now if any of them had a shot it would begin and end with 1-loss vs. 2-loss in Jets-Texans.

Week 12 (November 28):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Indianapolis
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 2-5; the Chargers always start slow, but something about this year feels different (especially with how much better the Chiefs and Raiders are), and there are some ominous signs in the Colts’ losses…
  • Protected games: Eagles-Bears (FOX) and Jags-Giants (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend, paucity of good games, though less so than in years past. Your options are Titans-Texans, Packers-Falcons, Bucs-Ravens, Chiefs-Seahawks, and who knows, maybe even Vikings-Redskins. This game is very much at risk with three battles of 2-loss teams (although all involve iffy markets, so if the decision came this week it might default to Packers-Falcons).

Week 13 (December 5):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 5-1 v. 5-2, potentially deciding the AFC North. Extremely good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Colts (FOX). This week has only one good CBS game but a better tentative compared to the other CBS unprotected candidate last week.
  • Other possible games: Redskins-Giants, Falcons-Bucs, and Jags-Titans, with Rams-Cardinals an emerging dark horse, and Saints-Bengals a big long shot.

Week 14 (December 12):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
  • Prospects: 4-3 v. 1-5; an NFC East game always = ratings, but at what point do the Cowboys’ struggles become too much to take, especially with Tony Romo on the shelf? This is NBC’s only shot at a Cowboys game during the flex scheduling period, but they could come in to this game 3-9 or something gruesome like that; its only shot at keeping its spot may be if it’s the game Romo comes back in, and that probably won’t be known 12 days in advance. On the other hand, look at the alternatives…
  • Protected games: Patriots-Bears (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bucs-Redskins is the only available game that doesn’t involve teams below .500, and it doesn’t feel like a game you’d abandon Eagles-Cowboys for. Rams-Saints and Jags-Raiders are dark horses. Giants-Vikings is an important wild card, but Brett Favre’s career may be over by then. Bengals-Steelers is hanging by a thread.

Week 15 (December 19):

  • Tentative game: Green Bay @ New England
  • Prospects: 5-1 v. 4-3, a bit lopsided but both teams are at least tied for their respective division leads.
  • Protected games: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Eagles-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Saints-Ravens is very attractive. Texans-Titans, Falcons-Seahawks, and Jags-Colts are also options, with Chiefs-Rams as a dark horse. I originally didn’t think Fox would protect Eagles-Giants thinking they’d always want to hang on to the NFL’s biggest rivalry, but unless the Cowboys make an unprecedented comeback with Jon Kitna at QB Redskins-Cowboys might not even be Fox’s own spotlight game.

Week 16 (December 26)

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Cincinnati
  • Prospects: 2-4 v. 2-5, and the Bengals will have trouble catching up to the Ravens and Steelers, while the Charger mid-to-late season magic may have run out with the rest of the division improved.
  • Protected games: Jets-Bears (CBS) and Giants-Packers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Chiefs-Titans and Seahawks-Bucs both involve two teams above .500. Colts-Raiders and Redskins-Jaguars are also options, with Vikings-Eagles as a Brett Favre wild card.

Week 17 (January 3):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

College Football Rankings – Week 8

First, for the rest of the college football season expect the college football rankings on Monday and the SNF Flex Schedule Watch on Wednesday. Second, the lineal titles have been updated; turns out San Diego blew a chance to unify the NFL titles.

There’s a non-BCS team deserving of playing in the national championship game… but it’s not Boise State.

TCU is the beneficiary of Oklahoma’s loss to Missouri, becoming the first team all year to lead the C Ratings in two different weeks. TCU’s lead over Boise State is all the more impressive considering the Mountain West is still a worse conference top-to-bottom than the WAC. Expect Boise’s rating to improve once they play #20 Nevada and Hawaii later in the year, but for now, TCU’s beatdowns of Air Force and Baylor trump narrowly beating V-Tech – and TCU themselves still has Utah to play.

Missouri didn’t benefit as much as you might think from beating Oklahoma, failing even to pass the team they beat, despite winning by 9; but it was at home and Oklahoma had by far the worst A Rating of last week’s top 5. Oregon managed to pass them by crushing UCLA. Similarly, because the BCS computers don’t factor in margin of victory, Auburn is your new BCS but actually lost a spot in the C Ratings because the C Ratings noticed they only won by a touchdown on the road to a team outside the top 10. (#16 LSU was in the BCS last week but in the C Ratings.)

Ohio State rounds out the top five despite holding a loss. It was to a good #21 Wisconsin team on the road; all their wins have been by double digits, including a 49-0 drubbing of a Purdue team still above .500 that sent them skyrocketing up the rankings.

Other remarks on the new C Ratings:

  • The winner of the Missouri-#7 Nebraska game will win the Big 12 North and might actually be favored in the Big 12 Title Game for the first time in a long time… and the last time ever.
  • Upon further review, Michigan State was last week and Nebraska with attendant corrections to the rest of the standings, with the implication that North Carolina was in the top 25 last week as well.
  • Alabama better spend the bye studying film of the Auburn-LSU game, because it’s because of that game that the Tide now outrank the Tigers, and Bama needs to be ready for the game coming out of the bye. It’ll be their biggest test before the Iron Bowl.
  • #18 Stanford beat Washington State by ten points but fell behind two other Pac-10 teams, in part because Wazzu sucks, in part because #12 Arizona drubbed Washington by 40 points. The Wildcats are only slowly gaining respect, but it won’t kick in for real until they play the other three best teams in the Pac-10 in November. #17 USC is still puttering around the middle of the rankings, and need a win over Oregon to be playing for anything at all.
  • It looks like the win over Alabama wasn’t a fluke and the loss to Kentucky was. Vanderbilt isn’t much, but the Gamecocks lead the SEC East and are heading for a chance to prove themselves in the SEC Title Game.
  • Time for ACC Madness! Does #14 Virginia Tech, who lost to James Madison, standing unbeaten in-conference say more about the Hokies or the ACC? #19 Florida State might turn out to be a little better, though, and might lead the ACC in the C Ratings if FCS games counted the way I’d like them to. Two more ACC teams, #22 NC State and #23 Miami (FL), populate the Top 25, and both are in the places you’d expect in the standings, though NC State is knotted up with Maryland, a team that’s not on the first page let alone positive B Points.
  • Baylor, Oklahoma, and #15 Oklahoma State are actually locked up in a tight one in the Big 12 South, so Oklahoma could have been set back quite a bit by the Missouri loss. Yes, BAYLOR is ahead of the other Texas schools, and they and TEXAS A&M are the only ones in positive B Points, though neither is on the top 25.
  • #21 Wisconsin can say “a win is a win” because they beat Iowa by only one point – though it helped that it was a road game. That pretty much firms up their claim to the Capitol One Bowl; people may continue to overreact to the Ohio State win, but it won’t be enough to give them a BCS at-large, and if Michigan State goes to the national title game I hope the Rose Bowl is smart enough to pick Ohio State.
  • Yes, Navy makes the top 25, hardly unprecedented. They have had some discouraging games (losing to Maryland? Beating Wake Forest by one?) but the beatdown of Notre Dame helps make up for that. #25 Florida rounds out the top 25 for real this week. They get a chance to bring the Princeton-Yale Title back to the good teams this week in the World’s Largest Cocktail Party, the first of three games they need to win to win the SEC East, but which will basically lock it up for them if they do.
  • The Big East is West Virginia’s world and everyone else is paying the rent? Not so fast my friend! The Mountaineers’ loss to Syracuse not only deserts the Top 25 of Big East teams, but combined with Pitt’s stomping of Rutgers, leaves them only two spots ahead of their rival in the C Ratings, and behind the unbeaten-in-conference Panthers in the Big East standings. The ‘Cuse is getting a lot of buzz but they’re still a mediocre team; both of their losses were bad (and one was to inconsistent Washington) and they beat West Virginia by only five; their only other two FBS wins were to South Florida, a team around the same area in the ratings, and dead-last-in-the-C-Ratings Akron.

Complete C Ratings

2010 College Football Rankings – Weeks 3-7

Here are the insights gained after calculating the last five weeks of the College Football Rankings:

  • Wanna guess who was after Week 3? It was a Pac-10 school, but it wasn’t high-scoring Oregon: it was Stanford. Alabama was , with Arizona , and Oregon all the way at thanks to a weak schedule. Florida leapfrogged them all Week 4 by beating previously unbeaten Kentucky, and Oregon shot up to after a relatively close win over Arizona State.
  • I didn’t like all the praise being heaped on to Boise before the season; it was like people wanted them to break into the BCS Title Game. And in the first rankings they’re #17. TCU, on the other hand, is , and moved to third behind Florida and Stanford the following week. Boise isn’t even the best team in their own conference after Week 3; that’s Nevada. Beating Oregon State didn’t help them in the short term; they actually dropped to #22, behind Virginia Tech! Only in Week 5 did they climb ahead of Nevada to #15, and in week 6 they shot up to .
  • Looking at the Week 4 rankings, you’re probably thinking that, far from explaining many of this year’s upsets, if my rankings ruled there would actually be more of them; Florida was ranked ahead of Alabama, Stanford ahead of Oregon. That actually resulted in TCU shooting to Week 5, followed by Alabama and Oregon, with Florida staying high at . Despite losing to Arizona earlier in the year, Iowa was at , followed by Oklahoma, Ohio State, Stanford, Nebraska, dropping-for-idle-hands Arizona, and Michigan. And the upsets predicted by the humans but not by me continued: Michigan State was beating on the road, South Carolina had been at #17 before beating Alabama.
  • Nebraska held the top spot after six weeks after a beatdown of previously-unbeaten Kansas State sent them shooting up the rankings. TCU, Ohio State, and Oregon rounded out the top five, with Oklahoma .
  • No one has led the rankings two weeks in a row. Oklahoma beating up on Iowa State explains why they’re now , but not in the BCS where margin of victory doesn’t matter. Did Texas handing Nebraska their first loss give the Sooners an SoS boost? The two major non-BCS schools, TCU and Boise State, file in at and . 6-0 Missouri can boast of wins over first-page teams San Diego State, Texas A&M and Illinois, two of them by decent scores; Oregon has beaten up on teams, but Stanford and Arizona State – an 11-point squeaker and a home win where they allowed as many points as they did against Arizona State – are their only first-page wins, and some of those wins (Tennessee, New Mexico) remain awful. Oklahoma should be on upset alert with the game in Columbia. Nebraska falls to 7th after the loss to Texas; Ohio State, unbeaten Auburn, and unbeaten Oklahoma State round out the top ten, with Michigan State at . (Don’t overreact to a loss!)
  • Next come unbeaten LSU, Stanford, unbeaten Utah, and Alabama to round out the top 15. Virginia Tech is 16th, and creeping back into the polls as well; non-bowl-eligible USC has been hovering around the middle of the rankings all year, and come in at #17 this week. South Carolina, Arizona, and Florida State round out the top 20, and NC State, Nevada, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Florida round out the Top 25 (of those five, only West Virginia and Wisconsin are ranked in the BCS). North Carolina, Mississippi State, Baylor, Iowa, Northwestern, Navy, Air Force, Michigan, and Oregon State make up the watch list (yes, Iowa is 15th in the BCS standings and 29th in the C Ratings – blame a pedestrian slate of opponents and a Penn State team now in the bottom half), with Arkansas, San Diego State, Clemson, Miami (FL), Troy, and UCF making up the rest of the positive B Point crowd.
  • The Big 12 appears to be the best conference, followed by the Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-10. Despite only one team in positive B Points the Big East is still ahead of the ACC. The WAC is surprisingly ahead of the Mountain West, which is the last year that’ll ever happen; in fact the Mountain West is only barely ahead of C-USA. The Sun Belt is actually ahead of the MAC. Kentucky is the lowest-ranked Princeton-Yale Titleholder I can think of in the time I’ve been tracking both, at #74 in the back half of FBS, with teams like UCLA and Toledo. Their opponent, Georgia, is at least 50th and can get on to the first page if they take the title.
  • Best game of week: Oklahoma @ Missouri, 8pm ET, ABC, for the 2006 Boise State title – and possible pole position on the road to the national championship game.

Week: 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 6

Also known as “Why NBC’s only flex game might NOT be Week 16”.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Jets have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since five other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. (So naturally this turned into the Year of Parity!) A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late 2008 but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 18, CBS 17; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 21, CBS 20. With this rule in place, Weeks 12, 13, and 16 cannot be flexed away from AFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 11, 14, 15, and 17.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 21):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Philadelphia
  • Prospects: Both teams at 4-2 and tied for the division lead in the most attractive division in the league. Extremely good chance to keep its spot.
  • Likely protections: Packers-Vikings (FOX) and Colts-Patriots (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Jets-Texans, Chiefs-Cardinals, Redskins-Titans, and Saints-Seahawks, with Falcons-Rams and Raiders-Steelers as dark horses, all very dependent on how everything shakes out. Right now if any of them had a shot it would begin and end with battle of 1-loss teams Jets-Texans. (I think the Raiders have shown enough flashes of brilliance to potentially make the playoffs, especially in a division where they’re only 1 1/2 games back and tied for second, so I’m including every team at 2-4 or above.)

Week 12 (November 28):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Indianapolis
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 2-4, but the Chargers always start slow. But there are some ominous signs in the Colts’ losses…
  • Likely protections: Reportedly, Eagles-Bears (FOX) and Titans-Texans, Jags-Giants, or nothing (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend, paucity of good games. Besides the potentially protected games, Packers-Falcons, Bucs-Ravens, and who knows, maybe even Vikings-Redskins or Chiefs-Seahawks.

Week 13 (December 5):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 4-1 v. 4-2, potentially deciding the AFC North. Extremely good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Likely protections: Falcons-Bucs or Cowboys-Colts, more likely the latter (FOX) and Jags-Titans if anything (CBS). This week has only one good CBS game but a better tentative compared to the other CBS unprotected candidate.
  • Other possible games: Redskins-Giants or the potentially protected games, with Chiefs-Broncos and Rams-Cardinals as potential dark horses, and Saints-Bengals a big long shot.

Week 14 (December 12):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 1-4; an NFC East game always = ratings, but at what point do the Cowboys’ struggles become too much to take? This is NBC’s only shot at a Cowboys game during the flex scheduling period, but they could come in to this game 3-9 or something gruesome like that. On the other hand, look at the alternatives…
  • Likely protections: Patriots-Bears (CBS) and probably nothing (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Giants-Vikings and Bucs-Redskins are the main Fox protection candidates if they did protect something. Bucs-Redskins and Rams-Saints are the only available games that don’t involve teams below .500; neither feels like a game you’d abandon Eagles-Cowboys for. Broncos-Cardinals, Jags-Raiders, and Chiefs-Chargers are dark horses. Bengals-Steelers is hanging by a thread.

Week 15 (December 19):

  • Tentative game: Green Bay @ New England
  • Prospects: 4-1 v. 3-3, so NBC better hope the Packers look more like the first of those “3”s, or this could get disturbingly lopsided.
  • Likely protections: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Saints-Ravens or Redskins-Cowboys, more likely the latter, but see below (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Eagles-Giants could well take this, but that maxes them both out of NBC appearances, and Fox would not be happy about losing both games of the divisional matchup, which makes me wonder if Fox may have in fact protected that game. Saints-Ravens would also be very attractive. Texans-Titans, Jags-Colts, and Chiefs-Rams are also options, with Falcons-Seahawks as a dark horse.

Week 16 (December 26)

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Cincinnati
  • Prospects: 2-4 v. 2-3, and the Bengals will have trouble catching up to the Ravens and Steelers.
  • Likely protections: Jets-Bears (CBS) and Giants-Packers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Chiefs-Titans is your best option with two teams above .500. Texans-Broncos, Colts-Raiders, Redskins-Jaguars, Seahawks-Bucs, and Vikings-Eagles are also options. So as far as interest in the game goes, flexing won’t improve this game much. It is conceivable that the Titans fall out of the division running behind the Colts and Texans, the Chargers make their usual mid-season surge, the Bengals hover around .500, and the NFL decides to stick with two name teams.

Week 17 (January 3):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.