NFL Schedule: Wild Card Playoffs

One thing I get to do with these schedule posts is show off one of the big advantages of my Playoff Picture format. Sure, the teams are in the wrong order, but still. No Lineal Titles during the playoffs this year; the Chargers will take it into the offseason.

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD
WEST
48-8
512-4 Sun 4:30 PM ET (PIT 13-21½)
Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
SOUTH
310-6
69-7 Sat 4:30 PM ET (HOU 20¾-17¾)
Tom Hammond, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan
NORTH
212-4
v. highest remaining
1/15 1PM ET
EAST
113-3
v. lowest remaining
1/14 8PM ET
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD NOTES
EAST
49-7
510-6 Sun 1PM ET (NYG 22¼-25¼)
Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver
SOUTH
313-3
610-6 Sat 8PM ET (NO 24¼-35¼)
Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
WEST
213-3
v. highest remaining
1/14 4:30 PM ET
NORTH
115-1
v. lowest remaining
1/15 4:30 PM ET

I really shouldn’t read TV Tropes’ Wild Mass Guessing section for stuff I follow. It keeps me from coming to my own conclusions and reactions.

(From MS Paint Adventures: Homestuck. Click for full-sized punishment for faking one’s own death.)

So it turns out the post-Scratch session was not a red herring, and the real red herring was the notion of Hussiebot as Evil!Hussie, which maybe I should have seen coming. Still, I wanted to make sure Jane was safe and sound before saying anything about Act 6’s first intermission.

Yes, not only was the return to the characters we’ve been following for five acts consigned to an “intermission” within Act 6, but the first intermission, implying Hussie has at least one more planned for this climactic act. In fact, there are six sub-acts planned for Act 6, if one can read anything from the progression of curtains in a prior flash (although you could read it as five). It seems a little risky to sweep the characters we’ve been following for so long aside and put the focus on these almost completely new characters for the act that will resolve the central conflict of Homestuck, almost like these guys we’ve never heard of are swooping in and stealing the glory of the characters we’ve been following.

The main revelation of this intermission was that, while those characters are taking a trip to the post-Scratch session, it won’t be instantaneous – they will have to make up the entire three-year advantage the post-Scratch kids have on them. The three nanoseconds it takes John, Jade, and their ship to span the one yard they have within wherever-the-hell-Hussie-is will take three years for them, and Rose, Dave, and the surviving trolls (except Aradia and ghost!Sollux) will be riding the meteor to the new session over the same period of time. (I understand Sollux was able to speed up the meteor to get to the Green Sun, but how come Derse’s moon was so much faster?)

Keep in mind, everything that happened over the preceding five acts took place over a little over a day at most, from the kids’ seemingly-normal existences (and only knowing each other through online chats) to heading out towards an unfamiliar session while being god-tiered… and that will now take three freaking years. Three years of John and Jade stuck with nothing but each other, Davesprite, the planets Jade shrunk, and a big green backdrop. Three years of Rose, Dave, Karkat, Terezi, Kanaya, and Gamzee stuck with nothing but each other and whatever surprises the meteor has. Less than twenty-four hours ago, the kids led completely normal lives, and now they’re stuck with this for three freaking years. I can see why John and Karkat (none of whose “compatible” pairs are travelling with each other) might go a little crazy at the very prospect.

Oh, and a captivated Jack Noir runs off from the confrontation with PM, if only temporarily, while PM drops the Wayward Vagabond off with Rose, Dave, and the trolls, leaving it very possible that he might yet be revived. Rose implies that Noir will follow them to the new session, but between Aradia promising to buy them some time and PM giving hot pursuit, I wouldn’t be surprised if something happened between them at the Green Sun (even if only a repeat of what happened back at the troll session). The final showdown is starting to take shape.

For the moment, though, we’re back to the post-Scratch universe and session, where Jane’s dreamself actually managed to revive herself from getting killed by that session’s Noir, in a move presumably related to being the Hero of Life. (Whether her realself’s survival is also related to that, or (as she thinks) to the post-Scratch equivalent to Bec, is up in the air.) We also answered the question of how Jake’s dreamself died (and it’s one of the more humorous deaths I’ve ever seen) while raising more questions: what’s the “new management” over on Derse (it’s evidently not Noir), and why have they greenlit killing the dreamselves before the realselves even arrive?

NFL Schedule: Week 17

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD NOTES
WEST
48-7
510-4 TEAMS AT 8-7 LISTED
IN REVERSE ORDER
OF LAST WEEK
(WOULD BE BROKEN BY
STRENGTH OF VICTORY)
8-7
SOUTH
310-5
69-6
CLINCHED
NORTH
211-4
8-7
11-4 8-7
EAST
112-3
8-7
CLINCHED
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD NOTES
EAST
48-7
510-5 NFC EAST LOSER
ELIMINATED;
LAST NFC PLAYOFF SPOT
TO BE DETERMINED
8-7
SOUTH
312-3
69-6
CLINCHED
WEST
212-3
8-7
CLINCHED
NORTH
114-1
CLINCHED

The NFL Schedule post is the first post of 2012, because it took so long for me to find out for sure what Compass was doing that I just gave up. With no SNF Flex Schedule Watch, the playoff picture moves back to the Schedule post; this is one point in favor of putting the playoff picture on this post full-time.

Week 17 never feels like a regular season week, especially with the double double-header, and the NFL has made it less so in recent years. On the other hand, there are a grand total of three games this weekend with no meaning whatsoever other than draft picks no one cares about because they aren’t the Luck pick, and I’ll show you what’s at stake in every one.

If all games go according to the point spread, your playoff teams are, according to ESPN’s Playoff Machine: AFC = byes: Patriots and Ravens; Titans @ Texans, Steelers @ Broncos; NFC = byes: Packers and Niners; Falcons @ Saints, Lions @ Giants.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#26(5-10) 18¾-26¾ #T15(7-8) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Ron Pitts, Charles Davis 139 92 Aaaaaaand the very first game is one of those meaningless ones as the former Dream Team looks to end on a high note.
(10-5) 22¾-18¾ (14-1) Sun 1:00 PM 712 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 85 104 Well, the Lions have no chance to lock down the 5 against the Packers! …what’s that? They aren’t unbeaten and are resting everybody? Oh.
#14(8-7) 18¼-21¼ #23(5-10) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 86 136 Jets are fighting for a playoff spot, but the Dolphins are more dangerous than they look.
#22(6-9) 23¼-30¾ (12-3) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver 138 125 Yeah, the Saints are playing for a bye, but you know the Fox slate is lame when Buck and Co have the early spot on a doubleheader.
(12-3) 23¼-12¼ (7-8) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 137 117 The Rams should make it easy for the Niners to lock down a first-round bye.
#21(7-8) 19½-21½ #T28(3-12) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 135 94 Another meaningless game as the Bears just try to finish at .500.
(8-7) 20½-18½ (10-5) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 106 128 The Texans have nothing to play for, but tell me the Titans won’t force a strength-of-victory tiebreaker for the last spot.
(2-13) 16¾-20¼ #27(4-11) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Spero Dedes, Steve Beuerlein 113 112 It’s the final resolution of the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes!
#25(6-9) 19¾-30¼ (12-3) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Don Criqui, Randy Cross 134 93 The Patriots can lock down the AFC’s seed; anyone want to tell them they don’t deserve it?
(11-4) 20-13½ #T28(4-11) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 135 92 The Steelers need a win if they want the division crown and a first-round bye.
(6-9) 17-20 (8-7) Sun 4:15 PM 717 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms 132 86 For all Tebow’s magic, he needs it to last one more game to get into the playoffs at all.
(11-4) 20½-18 (9-6) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 134 94 The Ravens want to lock down the division, but Dalton and the Bengals can lock down a playoff spot.
#19(7-8) 19-22 #20(7-8) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 139 112 Our last meaningless game means a second NFC East team will finish at .500 for once!
#30(4-11) 17½-28 (9-6) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 136 117 With only one playoff spot still to go in the NFC, this is what passes for a Fox feature game: Atlanta maybe playing for the 5.
#18(7-8) 22½-25½ #T15(8-7) Sun 4:15 PM 718 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 85 93 The Raiders could claim the division – but have an outside shot at the wild card if they don’t.
#12(8-7) 22-26 (8-7) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya 92 93 Final game of the regular season is the NFC East title game.

Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League: Championship Week

Worldwide Leaders got an early 15.8-point head start after the Thursday night game, with some production from Donald Brown but mostly 11 points from kicker Neil Rackers. Ray Rice, however, scored a big touchdown in the first half of his game with the Browns to give College Busters a slim lead. Jabar Gaffney picked up a receiving touchdown of his own to help College Busters pull away to a fairly comfortable lead heading into the late games, 62.7-40.8, as Worldwide Leaders failed to get double-digit production out of anybody. No one scored any touchdowns, and Mike Wallace was the most productive at 82 yards.

When Alex Smith proved to have a disappointing day, with no touchdowns and less than 200 all-purpose yards, the writing appeared to be on the wall for ESPN, cursing themselves for not shoring up their quarterback position, even with one more player still to play in the primetime games than College Busters. Matthew Stafford had a 378-yard, 3-touchdown day, good for nearly 28 points and giving YHOO a lead of over 56 points. Worldwide Leaders would need Jordy Nelson and Jimmy Graham to average 28 points and have Michael Turner basically be shut out, which would basically be a miracle. Nelson would do his part, scoring two touchdowns and 23.5 points, and Turner only scored 7.5 points, but Graham only put up 10.2 points of his own, well short of what was necessary.

Although College Busters snuck into the playoffs as a 4 seed, perhaps it’s fitting for the title to go to Yahoo, who was at the forefront of the fantasy phenomenon, rode fantasy to a position of being the most popular sports site, more so even than ESPN, and remains the most popular fantasy site of them all. A little poetic justice, perhaps.

Meanwhile, Ron Burgundy All-Stars pulled off another upset of Swimsuit Issues in the third-place game, thanks in large part to big days from Cam Newton and Victor Cruz, while SI once again got disappointing performaces, with Drew Brees the only touchdown-scoring starter. Commissioner’s Favorite got stung by the Tony Romo injury and Team Infograph rolled over them, while Inside Information and The SportsLine had the game of the weekend, with FLEA winning by less than two points with depth across the board (Michael Vick, Marshaun Lynch, and four others in double digits) over two or three great performances (Arian Foster and Brandon Marshall scored over twenty, while Matt Moore came close) and some good ones (Malcom Floyd and the Bengals defense scored over ten points, while Michael Bush scored 9.4). Finally, Indy Tea Party and Wisdom of Crowds had the two highest-scoring performances of the week to knock off Takedown Glaze and Politically Incorrect.

So, is there any particular reason the dialogue balloons cover up the doctor’s face?

(From PVP. Click for full-sized waiting room suspense.)

When I first pulled up this comic, the screen cut off right below the two-week-old headline, “Yes, We’re Serious”, making me wonder if this storyline was the PVP equivalent of what’s been happening over at xkcd, with both creators writing real-life medical scares into the comic. But no, it turns out it’s just another Scott Kurtz rant about how stupid newspapers are and how he’s the Certified Webcomics Genius(tm).

In any case, this storyline has been treated nothing like what xkcd‘s been doing (although xkcd has hardly been above making light of the situation). This storyline spun out of a bit where Brent was unable to cope with beating his dad arm-wrestling (a match Brent challenged him to after his dad opened a pickle jar for him and said he had “artist’s hands”, suggesting Kurtz flip-flopped a little here), hugged him, then saw him have a heart attack. The preceding comic to this one involved Brent blaming himself and worrying that he’d killed his father… and a little devil walking by and walloping him with a chain. If Brent’s worries prove founded – especially if it’s in Friday’s comic – I wouldn’t be surprised if people start having flashbacks to another webcomic medical scare: Lilah’s miscarriage.

That said, in this comic, I do think the slowly darkening panels and Brent’s visible regression in age is a nice, if subtle, touch.

To be honest? The only reason I’m reviewing this comic at all is to continue a new streak of posts every weekday.

(From Penny Arcade. Click for full-sized vampire feeding habits.)

I have no idea what this comic is talking about, even after reading the news post. Maybe it would make more sense if I were reading the comics leading up to it, or the prior newsposts. I don’t know.

All I know is, reading it out of context like this? Makes it resemble some sort of surreal, horrifying Dadaist experience. And the expression on Gabe’s face throughout the strip isn’t helping.

(Wait, Gabe is referred to, within the strip, as “Mike”? I don’t even know what to make of that…)

Fixing Jim Rome is Burning

One thing that I started doing during the past year was listen to Jim Rome’s nationally-syndicated radio show. I was hooked immediately. While Rome may have lost some firepower over the years, his show is still the best show in sports radio. The entertainment value of the radio show stands in marked contrast to his ESPN show, Jim Rome is Burning. Earlier this year, JRIB was bumped to ESPN2 full-time, the victim of ratings that couldn’t even hold up from its NFL Live lead-in, let alone carry them to Around the Horn, and it’s easy for me to see why. It feels like it’s simply going through the motions each day, going through the same cookie-cutter pattern, like it doesn’t really care anymore. It’s a far cry not only from the radio show, but from its very earliest days, when it was launched as an hour-long show, Rome is Burning, with considerable fanfare.

What makes matters worse is that, strangely enough, many if not all of the takes on JRIB are essentially regurgitated from the radio show, which means if you listened to the radio show earlier, you have zero reason to watch JRIB to listen to the same takes again, only made worse somehow. How could the exact same takes that are so entertaining on the radio show be so boring on JRIB? Here are some modest suggestions for revitalizing JRIB and making it a more worthwhile watch each day, bringing it up to, or at least close to, the level of the radio show:

Overhaul the opening segment. While Rome is always known for his rapid-fire style, when reading takes on JRIB he seems to be on a complete 5-Hour Energy buzz and reading his takes off a teleprompter almost in monotone. Instead of being a talking head staring into a camera, perhaps in the opening segment Rome should be sitting in the easy chair he uses for the “Alone with Rome” and “The Forum” segments. It might help him seem less robotic. What should also help is ditching the music playing in the background during his takes, which comes off as distracting; ditching the music might help the takes feel more naturalistic, the segment less artificial. Ditching the music could also allow Rome to make smoother transitions between takes, rather than have different pieces play for each take. More radically, Rome could adopt a new style for JRIB and write entirely separate takes just for that show. Whatever he goes with, Rome should feel like he’s simply shooting the breeze about sports with us, not rattling off a script as fast as he can.

Get a helper cohost. Perhaps part of the problem is that, while both introducing the story and giving a take on it works on the radio, it causes everything to blur together on TV. Since moving to ESPN2, JRIB has arguably been put to shame by the program airing before it, the new show Dan LeBatard is Highly Questionable. One key element that helps DLHQ work is the character (and ultimately, he is a character) of Papi, who serves as LeBatard’s foil and, more importantly, sets him up by introducing the topic for him to riff on. All of ESPN’s other talk shows use multiple people in similar fashion. Perhaps JRIB would flow better if he brought in one of the people who help run his radio show to introduce each topic and set him up to give his take on each one.

Tie the segments closer together, and give Rome more of a presence in each one. Currently the sequence of a typical episode of JRIB goes like this: Rome’s takes on the day’s sports stories, an interview segment, shooting the breeze with another personality, a once-a-week “correspondent” piece from an athlete, and one to three “final burn” takes. These segments have little connection with each other other than sports and Jim Rome himself, and the Correspondent piece seems particularly superflouous and its purpose should be rethought. Part of the problem is that during Alone with Rome, The Forum, and the Correspondents, Rome is ultimately a cypher who stays in the background while the guest is the star of the show.

While Rome tries to get topical guests on his radio show, his guests on JRIB are often whoever he can get who’s available, which isn’t the case on PTI. DLHQ manages to get away with getting the “best available guest” by giving the interview segment its own gimmick, but Alone with Rome is more of a straight-up interview segment, so Rome needs to make getting better guests for it a higher priority. Rome occasionally gives his own opinions during the Forum segment, but the focus there is clearly on the guest’s opinions, not his own, and the two are largely superfluous to one another. Perhaps the opening segment is so bad at providing a backbone for the show that simply fixing its issues could go far in tying the rest of the show together, but if not Rome needs to consider what he can do to make himself more of the star of the show, possibly including…

Consider ditching the Forum, or make it an occasional segment replacing Alone with Rome. If I recall correctly, when JRIB started the Forum was a full-fledged roundtable of panelists debating the day’s sports stories. Now, with the Forum taking up an entire segment on a half-hour program devoted to one guy giving a second opinion often on the same topics Rome covered in the opening segment, it seems like more of a waste of valuable time. Consider freeing the time up for another segment like the first one on two or three topics, allowing the opening segment to breathe more and allowing Rome to slow down his takes. Alternately, save some topics to be covered only in the Forum and give Rome closer to equal billing in that segment; the topic taken from Twitter in each Forum in the ESPN2 era may be a step in this direction.

Rome should take his show’s move to ESPN2 as a wake-up call that JRIB is broken and needs fixing. Wikipedia claims that Rome has, in the past, threatened to abandon his radio show entirely and do only a TV show. If so, I hope that JRIB as it exists today is not what such a show would look like. The best thing that could probably happen to JRIB would probably be going back to an hour-long show, which probably can’t be had without leaving ESPN. Short of that, Rome needs to find a way to get the show to work within the time that he has.

The SNF Week 17 Situations

I’ve realized I’ve had reason to link to this post from last year, just to back up how narrow NBC’s choices for Week 17 really were. Hence, this post, to explain that with the NFL’s all-divisional lineup Week 17, there aren’t that many scenarios that produce a game guaranteed to remain a win-and-in, lose-and-out game after all the other games are played, which is what the NFL likes to plug in to the Sunday night timeslot. Namely, two teams in the same division competing for the same single playoff spot, either division or wild card, and playing each other.

Consider, for a second, two tied teams in the same division that don’t play each other. If the team with the tiebreaker wins, the team without it has nothing to play for. If you put the team with the tiebreaker in primetime, then if the team without the tiebreaker loses, the team with it also has nothing to play for. Putting the two teams a game apart just makes it worse. You need the two teams to be tied AND you need the tiebreaker situation if both teams win to be different from the tiebreaker situation if both teams lose. But the first three tiebreakers are: division games, common games, and conference games, and the NFL has made sure both teams are playing a game that’s all three. Remember, we needed both teams to have the same result, so all three tiebreakers will move in the same direction as well. The next tiebreaker is strength of victory, which you can’t count on.

The situation for the wild card, when competing against teams in other divisions, isn’t much better. The same constraints as in the first half of the last paragraph apply. The first tiebreaker (after head-to-head) is conference games, which both teams are playing. The next tiebreaker is common games, where an opening appears, since common games among teams in different divisions are rare, unless the teams’ divisions played each other. It’s conceivable for one team to play a common game while the other doesn’t… but then the best case scenario is that the two teams finish tied in the common games. And what’s the next tiebreaker? Why, strength of victory, of course.

However, the other reason I wanted to make this post was a post on Pro Football Talk suggesting Broncos-Chiefs might have been selected if the Chargers had lost. While I had said the result that needed to be different was the Chiefs beating the Raiders, and so far as I know that’s still correct, I realized there really isn’t anything going against that scenario. So that provides a loophole that broadens things out a little: if a team would lose a tiebreaker against two other teams in the same division a game back and playing each other, or would win a tiebreaker against two other teams in the same division also tied with them and playing each other, that team has an SNF-Week-17 ready game.

So Bengals-Jets two years ago might have happened, if two of the other wild card contenders were also playing each other. But I suspect the NFL would prefer that sort of game, where one team has nothing to play for, not happen – though it’s far better if it’s a team out of the playoffs, like the Chiefs, than one in the playoffs and resting up for it, like the Bengals two years ago.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 17 Picks

Week 17 (January 1):

  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Cowboys (8-7)-Giants (8-7), Broncos (8-7)-Chiefs (6-9).
  • Impact of Sunday and Monday Night Football: None, though announcement will be made before either game is over anyway.
  • Analysis: NBC breathed a huge sigh of relief when the Giants won (and then started hyperventilating again when Tony Romo got injured). The Cowboys and Giants will enter their Week 17 showdown tied for the division lead. The Broncos did get shockingly blown out by the lowly Bills (shades of the pre-Tebow era), and the Lions finished off the Chargers, but the Chiefs couldn’t do their part.
  • Final prediction: Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants.

We’re learning far too much about the bad guys’ plans for them to be remotely successful.

(From The Order of the Stick. Click for full-sized family affair.)

When I predicted that Nale and Tarquin might make up and form one side in the battle for the Gates, this wasn’t exactly what I had in mind.

Although Tarquin seems willing to accept his son’s direction, as at least one person on the forum points out, he’s also equally willing to let someone else hold the official position of leader of the Empire of Blood, so he could be just as willing to try to manipulate Nale similarly. But that might actually turn out to be a far more interesting outcome than if he just let Nale run the show, and not necessarily because Tarquin would be entirely successful.

Tarquin knows a lot, but he’s not omniscient, and so far as we know, Sabine is the only person in that room who knows what the real power behind the Linear Guild is. The IFCC might be willing to put up with Tarquin joining the group and even calling the shots so long as it results in more conflict for Girard’s Gate, but it’s very easy to see a scenario where Tarquin takes the Linear Guild in a direction they don’t want it to go, or raises them beyond the level of “incompetent buffoons”. That could result in much of the comic’s conflict occuring within the Linear Guild, especially between Sabine and Tarquin with Nale caught in the middle. It’s been speculated that Nale might find out about and rebel against the IFCC at some point; we may be seeing the groundwork being laid for that.

At any rate, after spending so long inside the Empire of Blood, the comic is moving everything straight towards what’s shaping up to be an epic, multi-way conflagration at Girard’s Gate, one that’ll make the Linear Guild encounter we just had look like child’s play.