NFL

I’ve realized I’ve had reason to link to this post from last year, just to back up how narrow NBC’s choices for Week 17 really were. Hence, this post, to explain that with the NFL’s all-divisional lineup Week 17, there aren’t that many scenarios that produce a game guaranteed to remain a win-and-in, lose-and-out game after all the other games are played, which is what the NFL likes to plug in to the Sunday night timeslot. Namely, two teams in the same division competing for the same single playoff spot, either division or wild card, and playing each other.

Consider, for a second, two tied teams in the same division that don’t play each other. If the team with the tiebreaker wins, the team without it has nothing to play for. If you put the team with the tiebreaker in primetime, then if the team without the tiebreaker loses, the team with it also has nothing to play for. Putting the two teams a game apart just makes it worse. You need the two teams to be tied AND you need the tiebreaker situation if both teams win to be different from the tiebreaker situation if both teams lose. But the first three tiebreakers are: division games, common games, and conference games, and the NFL has made sure both teams are playing a game that’s all three. Remember, we needed both teams to have the same result, so all three tiebreakers will move in the same direction as well. The next tiebreaker is strength of victory, which you can’t count on.

The situation for the wild card, when competing against teams in other divisions, isn’t much better. The same constraints as in the first half of the last paragraph apply. The first tiebreaker (after head-to-head) is conference games, which both teams are playing. The next tiebreaker is common games, where an opening appears, since common games among teams in different divisions are rare, unless the teams’ divisions played each other. It’s conceivable for one team to play a common game while the other doesn’t… but then the best case scenario is that the two teams finish tied in the common games. And what’s the next tiebreaker? Why, strength of victory, of course.

However, the other reason I wanted to make this post was a post on Pro Football Talk suggesting Broncos-Chiefs might have been selected if the Chargers had lost. While I had said the result that needed to be different was the Chiefs beating the Raiders, and so far as I know that’s still correct, I realized there really isn’t anything going against that scenario. So that provides a loophole that broadens things out a little: if a team would lose a tiebreaker against two other teams in the same division a game back and playing each other, or would win a tiebreaker against two other teams in the same division also tied with them and playing each other, that team has an SNF-Week-17 ready game.

So Bengals-Jets two years ago might have happened, if two of the other wild card contenders were also playing each other. But I suspect the NFL would prefer that sort of game, where one team has nothing to play for, not happen – though it’s far better if it’s a team out of the playoffs, like the Chiefs, than one in the playoffs and resting up for it, like the Bengals two years ago.

Week 17 (January 1):

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Cowboys (8-7)-Giants (8-7), Broncos (8-7)-Chiefs (6-9).
• Impact of Sunday and Monday Night Football: None, though announcement will be made before either game is over anyway.
• Analysis: NBC breathed a huge sigh of relief when the Giants won (and then started hyperventilating again when Tony Romo got injured). The Cowboys and Giants will enter their Week 17 showdown tied for the division lead. The Broncos did get shockingly blown out by the lowly Bills (shades of the pre-Tebow era), and the Lions finished off the Chargers, but the Chiefs couldn’t do their part.
• Final prediction: Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
• Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (6-8)
WEST 48-6	510-4
2 teams at 7-7
SOUTH 310-4	68-6
CLINCHED
NORTH 210-4	8-6
10-4	7-7
EAST 111-3	7-7
CLINCHED	7-7

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (7-7)
EAST 48-6	59-5
7-7
SOUTH 311-3	69-5
9-5
WEST 211-3
CLINCHED
NORTH 113-1
CLINCHED

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Broncos-Chiefs. Chargers-Raiders is out because a Broncos win Week 17 would lock up the division no matter what else happens these next two weeks.
• Cowboys-Giants will be picked if: The Giants win OR the Cowboys lose AND the situation below doesn’t happen. A Giants win Week 16 knocks the Eagles out of the playoffs. If the Giants lose, a Cowboys win locks up the division for them, while a Cowboys loss leaves open the possibility that the Giants would already be eliminated before primetime.
• Broncos-Chiefs will be picked if: The Giants lose AND the Broncos lose AND the Chiefs beat the Raiders AND the Chargers lose. It’s a lot to have happen, and the Broncos are playing the floundering Bills, but if the Chiefs beat the Broncos they would win even a three-way tiebreaker, thanks in large part to what would be a sweep of the Raiders. Because NBC hasn’t had the Tebow fill they wanted, they might choose this game even if the Giants win, but you know Fox is salivating more at the prospect of Cowboys-Giants than CBS is salivating at the prospect of Broncos-Chiefs. If neither of these scenarios happen? NBC is screwed. That’s why I think they might go with Cowboys-Giants even if the Cowboys haven’t done so much as clinch the division. NBC will be rooting hard for the Giants on Saturday, and if they lose we’ll learn a lot about the NFL’s priorities and contingencies.