NFL

Breaking down what the NFL’s new TV deals mean

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The NFL may have just made the biggest change to its television and week-by-week scheduling structure since it lifted the blackout on sold-out home games… without changing any networks.

Last week, the NFL renewed its deals with CBS, Fox, and NBC for another nine years through 2022. One part of the deal will involve “expanded flex scheduling”, which apparently means NBC will be able to flex out of games as early as Week 5, but only if the game is a disaster waiting to happen like the Colts’ games this year. But it will also mean that games could flip between CBS and Fox. Before this point, there was an AFC network and an NFC network, and which games aired on which networks was set in stone. Now, while the rules for which games air on which networks will remain the same, some games may air on the other network on occasion. The situation we saw a few weeks ago, where Broncos-Vikings, normally a CBS game, flipped to Fox, will become more common. The exact rules haven’t been decided on, but one reason to flip games may be to shore up the second half of the doubleheader, though Broncos-Vikings became the premier game of the first half of the doubleheader.

That means that starting in 2014, my SNF Flex Schedule Watch could be very different… and I may have to give up the ghost entirely if the rules end up being too complicated.

The NFL also made a change to how it divvies up playoff games. NBC has traded in one of its Wild Card games for a divisional game. Most of the smart money has ESPN picking up the Wild Card game NBC gave up, putting a playoff game on cable for the first time. The third divisional game could conceivably rotate between CBS and Fox, go to ESPN as well, or go to NBC as well. My money is that it’ll go to NBC, balancing the number of playoff games on the broadcast networks before the Super Bowl at three apiece. Rotating between CBS and Fox would be hard logistically, and the NFL doesn’t seem to be the sort of entity that lets ESPN have playoff games that deep.

The NFL Network will also expand its Thursday Night schedule. This doesn’t necessarily mean selling the back half of the Thursday Night package is off the table, if it means going to 10-12 as a “stepping stone” to a full-season split schedule and as a way to put more pressure on those holdouts that don’t carry NFLN, but I could see it happening (hopefully it doesn’t mean the NFL will keep the additional NFLN games and try for an 18-game schedule again). However, the Thanksgiving Night game is moving to NBC, which doesn’t really surprise me, but does seem to be a good sign for NBC Sports Network’s prospects of winning the Thursday Night package (although if NBCSN does win it’s likely to be only seven games as a result of this). By my calculations, that means the Thursday night schedule would begin somewhere around Week 4-6.

Finally, NBC Sports Network will throw its hat into the ring of the Sunday morning pregame shows. That’s another good sign for NBC Sports’ prospects of winning the Thursday night package; however, if the NFL went with Turner then every single contender in the sports TV wars would have a Sunday morning pregame show.

Sport-Specific Networks
5 5.5 4.5 2.5 0 1.5

NFL Schedule: Week 15

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Much better slate of games this week, and this goes up just in time for the not-so-good Thursday night game.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#25(4-9) 14¼-27¾ (8-5) Thu 8:20 PM Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan WW1 92 93 "You’re down by 20 in the fantasy semis!" "MJD was the only starter on either one of our teams that played Thursday night."
(7-6) 27-20 (4-9) Sat 8:20 PM Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan WW1 92 93 It’s almost incredible how bad the Bucs have gotten, and the Cowboys need a bounce-back.
#15(7-6) 23¼-16¾ (2-11) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 91 138 Most of America will see this game. Not the most inspiring first game of a doubleheader in the world.
(4-9) 19½-26 (10-3) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Ron Pitts, Charles Davis 136 113 TJ Yates should continue to manage the game admirably against the porous Panther defense.
#19(6-7) 16¼-19¾ #16(7-6) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan CMP 139 93 Might the Seahawks prove they’re legitimate playoff contenders with a win over the Bears?
#27(4-9) 19¾-26¼ #12(7-6) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver USA 134 94 If the Skins can pull off the upset, it’ll be very unlikely the Giants-Cowboys rematch won’t be for the division.
#14(7-6) 23¾-17¼ (0-13) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 112 128 The Titans got an early Christmas present for their hopes to keep up in the wild card.
#22(4-9) 20½-20½ #23(5-8) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 85 104 Can the Dolphins’ hard charge finally pull them out of the cellar over the freefalling Bills?
(10-3) 28¾-22¼ #30(2-11) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Dick Stockton, John Lynch WW1 92 106 AP might be coming back! Too bad it’ll be against one of the best teams in the league.
(13-0) 30-16 #26(5-8) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 86 137 Will it matter who the Chiefs put out at quarterback against the Packers?
(8-5) 24½-23½ #17(7-6) Sun 4:05 PM 712 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin CMP 135 92 Two teams desperately seeking to make it in the playoffs.
(4-9) 15¼-21¾ #20(6-7) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 91 93 The Hawks have gotten more attention for their attempt to make the playoffs, but the Cards have done the same and should continue.
(10-3) 19½-26½ (8-5) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms WW1 86 94 Tom Brady and Tim Tebow square off in the game at the heart of last week’s network tug-of-war.
(8-5) 20½-23½ #21(5-8) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon USA 85 132 The Jets have become a clear in the division and solid playoff contender, so why are they dogs to the not-so-Dream Team?
(10-3) 23½-21 #18(6-7) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Actually a tighter spread than the game NBC actually wanted, but the Bolts face a major obstacle to playoff contention.
(10-3) 18¼-21¼ (10-3) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 The Monday Night slump ends in a big way with a showdown between two teams fighting for first-round byes.

Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League: Playoff Preview

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Despite a rather pathetic number of total points scored, Ron Burgundy All-Stars managed to take advantage of a surprisingly weak week from Worldwide Leaders to lock up its playoff spot, finishing a four-game season-ending winning streak, while College Busters rode the second-best performance of the final week to steal the last playoff spot from The SportsLine. They join ESPN and the league’s dominant team, Swimsuit Issues, in the playoffs. SI has been riding the back of a superior draft strategy to a record two games better than ESPN or KFFL. Meanwhile, Commissioner’s Favorite managed to edge Inside Information to sneak into the NIT, helped by a weak week from Politically Incorrect; they’ll play The SportsLine in the first round, while Team Infograph takes on Inside Information. Indy Tea Party v. Wisdom of Crowds and Politically Incorrect v. Takedown Glaze rounds out the ninth-place playoffs.

Worldwide Leaders’ strong suit is at wide receiver, where they have no fewer than three of the top six wideouts in the league, plus the second-best tight end in Jimmy Graham. But their roster might not cut it in real football, with a questionable quarterback situation (Vince Young and Alex Smith) to throw to those receivers, and while they’ve taken advantage of Chris Johnson’s resurgence in recent weeks the addition of Chris Ivory on the waiver wire this week brings them up to only three healthy running backs. The Cowboys’ defense is also a potential weak spot, putting up -6 points in their game against the Giants. ESPN immediately has a rematch with a team that just beat them, Ron Burgundy All-Stars. While their quarterback situation is solid in Cam Newton and they boast a balanced running corps and a top-notch receiver in Victor Cruz, Andre Johnson’s injury has really hurt and the team has been scrambling for a second wideout.

Swimsuit Issues lucked into having the best player in the entire league at three positions: running back (LeSean McCoy), tight end (Rob Gronkowski), and defense (Ravens). Drew Brees isn’t too shabby a pick at quarterback, either. But despite DeMarco Murray’s injury bringing them down to two running backs on roster, McCoy and Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, they added another wideout, Demaryius Thomas, to replace Murray. That gives them the maximum of seven, of which only Antonio Brown is averaging more than seven points a game. Kicker might also be considered a weak spot, although Mike Nugent put up 15 points last week. College Busters’ strong suit is in the run game, with two of the top ten running backs, as well as a good quarterback in Matt Stafford. The problem is that Jabar Gaffney is their only wide receiver in the top 40 at the position, and while they have good choices at tight end, kicker, and to some extent defense, it’s not quite on the level of the other playoff teams.

I’m bringing back the weekly recaps for this week, focusing solely on the playoff games and neither of the consolation brackets, though I may touch on what happens there.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 14

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (6-7)
WEST
48-5		 510-3
7-6
EAST
310-3		 68-5
8-5
NORTH
210-3		 7-6
10-3 7-6
SOUTH
110-3		 7-6
CLINCHED
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (6-7)
EAST
47-6		 58-5
7-6
SOUTH
310-3		 68-5
8-5
WEST
210-3		 7-6
CLINCHED 7-6
NORTH
113-0
CLINCHED
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Lions-Packers, Chargers-Raiders. Tiebreakers eliminate Titans-Texans and Ravens-Bengals.
  • Chances for Cowboys-Giants: 80 percent. Here are the scenarios for this game not to be picked: 1) One team loses their next two games and the other team wins their next two games. 2) The Cowboys beat the Bucs tonight, but lose to the Eagles next week while the Giants win their next two, as the Giants would hold the common-games tiebreaker even with a loss to the Cowboys in that situation. 3) and this is a maybe, considering the division winner doesn’t even have a good enough record for the wild card at the moment and the paucity of other options: the loser of the game still has a chance to make the playoffs. Any other scenario, and this game is for the NFC East crown with the loser likely out of the playoffs, and that would be by far the most TV-friendly game NBC could hope for. Those other scenarios are very possible, but the return match is looking very likely for a return to NBC.
  • Chances for Lions-Packers: 10 percent. The Pack have already locked up the division, so a) they would have to be gunning for 16-0, b) preferably the Lions wouldn’t be fighting for a playoff spot or at least their game wouldn’t have an impact on other teams’ playoff hopes even if they’re knocked out by the end of the day, and c) preferably Cowboys-Giants runs into one of those conditions that make it irrelevant. What saves it is that if situation c) happens, this is pretty likely to be the best game available.
  • Chances for Chargers-Raiders: 10 percent. What makes this game a long shot is that neither team is in the playoffs at the moment, but if the Broncos collapse this could luck into being an AFC West title game, and while the Jets and preferably Titans and Bengals would need to collapse it could conceivably be for the wild card as well. If the Broncos lose their next two, and the Chargers and Raiders win their next two, and Cowboys-Giants is irrelevant, and (maybe) the Packers lose one of their next two, this game is getting flexed in because the Chargers’ divisional record would trump the Raiders, and if necessary, their head-to-head record would trump the Raiders and Broncos. But that’s a lot of ifs, so if Cowboys-Giants becomes irrelevant NBC may well find itself stuck, especially if the Packers aren’t 15-0.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 13

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 12 (November 27):

  • Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Selected game: Detroit @ New Orleans.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Selected game: NY Giants @ Dallas.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Selected game: Baltimore @ San Diego. This one was announced substantially later than normal, indeed later than the 12-day window the rules allow, thanks to CBS actually fighting to keep Pats-Broncos, with Robert Kraft (who’s a landlord for a CBS-owned restaurant) taking their side. Why CBS’s opinions should have any relevance whatsoever when the NFL is supposed to make the decisions to support NBC’s package is beyond me. This is why we have the protection system; CBS doesn’t get to decide after Week 13 “oh, we’d like to keep this game too.” While there are extenuating circumstances here (the NFL moved a normally-CBS Broncos-Vikings game to Fox this past week, and all involved networks are in the midst of contract renegotiations), this may presage a tweak of the flex schedule rules in the next contract. I fully expected the game to keep its spot anyway once the Chargers won, because it meant the Chargers weren’t so godawful as to overrule the tentative game bias (that’s why Lions-Raiders didn’t get flexed in either), so it also shows how desperate for Tebow NBC is. Everyone looks bad all the way around.

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (5-7)
WEST
47-5		 59-3
7-5
NORTH
39-3		 67-5
9-3
EAST
29-3		 7-5
7-5 7-5
SOUTH
19-3		 7-5
7-5
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (5-7)
EAST
47-5		 57-5
6-6
SOUTH
39-3		 67-5
7-5
WEST
210-2		 7-5
CLINCHED 6-6
NORTH
112-0
CLINCHED
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Titans-Texans, Lions-Packers, Ravens-Bengals. The AFC West, AFC East, and NFC South just don’t pair up right.

NFL Schedule: Week 14

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Thanks to Tebow-Kraftgate, the Flex Schedule Watch is coming sometime Thursday. This week isn’t a particularly attractive slate of games either (just look at all the huge point spreads), and I’m rushing to get something important done. And that’s on top of the bad taste the way the college football season ended left in my mouth. Bad vibes all the way around.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
(4-8) 12½-26½ (9-3) Thu 8:20 PM Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan WW1 92 93 Not a good sign when your struggling team goes Ravens-Steelers back-to-back.
#26(4-8) 19¼-18¼ #30(3-9) Sun 1:00 PM 712 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 136 117 Can you believe the Bucs were playoff contenders not that long ago?
(5-7) 13¾-22¾ (7-5) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts CMP 137 93 Can Kyle Orton repeat his Soldier Field magic at the Met?
(9-3) 17½-20½ #15(7-5) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon USA 86 104 The Texans seem to be doing okay with T.J. Yates. Will that continue against the Bengals?
(9-3) 28-20 #27(4-8) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 91 134 Will getting scared by the worst team in the league cause the Patriots to play with fire against the Skins?
#T9(7-5) 25¼-22¾ #25(4-8) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora 112 125 Hey, Cam Newton has a winning streak! But can it continue against a potential playoff team?
#23(4-8) 21-24 #18(4-8) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 132 113 Two teams going in very opposite directions.
(9-3) 26-22½ #14(7-5) Sun 1:00 PM 713 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver WW1 94 128 The Titans are scratching and clawing for a playoff spot… good luck getting it against the Saints.
(0-12) 12½-28½ (9-3) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 106 85 The Colts showed signs of life against the Patriots, but the Ravens defense won’t be any easier.
(2-10) 20¾-28¾ #12(7-5) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 138 92 Maybe the Vikings won’t solve the Lions’ penalty problem, but they will make it matter less.
#16(7-5) 16¼-19¾ (7-5) Sun 4:05 PM 715 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa CMP 135 93 Tebowmania is reaching a fever pitch, but will it continue against a hungry Bears defense?
(10-2) 21¾-17¾ #21(5-7) Sun 4:05 PM 714 Dick Stockton, John Lynch USA 92 139 The Cardinals might be a long shot for the playoffs, but it’ll be difficult getting past the Niners.
#22(5-7) 20¼-27¼ #20(5-7) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots WW1 91 85 The Chargers are going on their late-season charge, while the Bills’ season is entering a tailspin.
(7-5) 20½-31½ (12-0) Sun 4:15 PM 705 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms 94 86 Good luck defending your division lead against the Tebow onslaught playing the Packers.
#17(6-6) 22¾-26¼ #T9(7-5) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 First of two for NFC East supremacy.
(2-10) 17½-22 #19(5-7) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 Rematch of last year’s NFC West title game with substantially less importance this time around.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 15 Picks

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Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: At one point this game was the only one of NBC’s tentatives involving two teams above .500. Might the Chargers’ mid-season swoon be putting this one in flex jeopardy? There aren’t many alternatives, but…
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Lions (7-5)-Raiders (7-5), Patriots (9-3)-Broncos (7-5).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: The Chargers will be desperately defending the tentative tonight.
  • Analysis: Given the tentative game bias I think this game is still fairly safe if the Chargers are 5-7, but if they lose again to fall to 4-8? Why would NBC and the NFL keep a lopsided 9-3 v. 4-8 clash with two games each involving two teams at at least 7-5? As I said last week, with the Broncos winning again there’s no reason not to go with the Tom Brady-Tim Tebow clash, and the Lions and Raiders losing only helps in that regard. If you’d told me two months ago that Ravens-Chargers being flexed out for Patriots-Broncos was a very real possibility, I’d have said you were crazy.
  • Final prediction: Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers (if the Chargers win); New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (if the Chargers lose).

NFL Schedule: Week 13

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A day late, entirely my fault, though NFL.com’s schedule page STILL not having the Sunday Ticket channel for Colts-Pats didn’t help.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#18(4-7) 23¼-20¼ #22(4-7) Thu 8:20 PM Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan WW1 92 93 Betcha you didn’t realize these two teams were this close.
#14(6-5) 20½-17½ #25(4-7) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 91 106 The Jets hope to continue building their playoff case against an iffy Skins team.
(4-7) 15¼-22¼ (7-4) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots CMP 135 94 Welcome to Kansas City, Kyle Orton! Say hello to the Bears defense.
(7-4) 18-24½ (8-3) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms WW1 113 86 The two current AFC Wild Card teams face off not only for their spots, but divisional positioning as well.
(7-4) 20¼-17¾ (8-3) Sun 1:00 PM 712 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 134 92 The Texans try desperately to find a quarterback that can stay standing against a Falcons team fighting for the playoffs.
#15(6-5) 18-19½ #T29(2-9) Sun 1:00 PM 713 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 112 125 A rare network swap means it’ll be Fox (and Church of Tebow pastor Brennaman) bringing you Tebow’s latest heroics.
#27(3-8) 22-25 #20(4-7) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora 136 117 The Bucs’ season is going into a tailspin. Might gorging on the Panthers defense help?
(0-11) 14-34 (8-3) Sun 1:00 PM 710? Marv Albert, Rich Gannon USA 132 93 Hey, remember when this was the NFL’s greatest rivalry? Then Manning went down and NBC flexed out a month in advance.
#17(6-5) 21-22½ #19(5-6) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Spero Dedes, Steve Beuerlein 137 128 Two teams with distant playoff hopes slug it out… again.
(7-4) 20-23 #23(3-8) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 139 85 It took a last-minute FG for the ‘Boys to finish the Dolphins at home. Should the Raiders be scared heading into SunLife?
(8-3) 22¼-15¾ (4-7) Sun 4:05 PM 708 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 104 112 Hey fantasy nerds, Peyton Hillis is back! Just in time for the end of the fantasy regular season, against the Ravens D.
(11-0) 29½-23 #16(6-5) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver WW1 94 86 Could the Pack go 16-0? The Giants probably represent their biggest obstacle left.
(7-4) 25-20½ #26(4-7) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Dick Stockton, John Lynch CMP 93 128 Maybe that Sunday Night showdown won’t be for the division lead after all, with this big an opportunity for the Boys.
(2-9) 12¼-25¾ (9-2) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan USA 138 92 The woeful Rams should be just what the doctor ordered for a Niners team looking to bounce back from the Ravens loss.
#12(7-4) 22¼-31¼ (8-3) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 No Suh, but still a spotlight game between two teams fighting for the playoffs.
#21(4-7) 21-18 #T29(3-8) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 Because if it comes down to Mo Jo-Drew or Vincent Jackson for a fantasy playoff spot, you want everyone to watch.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 12

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 12 (November 27):

  • Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Selected game: Detroit @ New Orleans.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Selected game: NY Giants @ Dallas.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: At one point this game was the only one of NBC’s tentatives involving two teams above .500. Might the Chargers’ mid-season swoon be putting this one in flex jeopardy? There aren’t many alternatives, but…
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Raiders and Patriots-Broncos are the only remotely good options, unless you consider the unbeaten Packers beating up on the 4-7 Chiefs “remotely good”.
  • Analysis: However, we’ve seen an increasing polarization of the league to the extent that “remotely good” pretty much means “good” (there is only one team in the league at 5-6, the Bills). Lions-Raiders is 7-4 v. 7-4, but the real attraction may be Patriots-Broncos, at 8-3 v. 6-5 and the prospect of Tom Brady v. Tim Tebow. Compare that to Ravens-Chargers at 8-3 v. 4-7. None of the teams involved are close to maxing out, so a flex is a very real possibility. If the Broncos beat the Vikings – and why wouldn’t they? – there’s almost no reason not to put Patriots-Broncos on Sunday night, which would have been unthinkable a month and a half ago. Unless the Chargers can salvage something by beating the woebegone Jags Monday night…

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (5-6)
WEST
47-4		 58-3
6-5
NORTH
38-3		 67-4
8-3
EAST
28-3		 6-5
6-5 6-5
SOUTH
18-3		 6-5
6-5
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD ELIMINATED
FROM PLAYOFFS
EAST
47-4		 57-4 2-9
6-5
SOUTH
38-3		 67-4
7-4
WEST
29-2		 7-4
4-7 6-5
NORTH
111-0
2 tied at 7-4
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Titans-Texans, Lions-Packers, Ravens-Bengals. Bills-Patriots is looking like a dark horse more than anything, and the AFC West and NFC South just don’t pair up right.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 14 Picks

by

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and tied for the division lead entering Week 12. For a flex to have ever been in the realm of possibility, one or both teams would have had to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Texans (8-3)-Bengals (7-4), Raiders (7-4)-Packers (11-0), Saints (7-3)-Titans (6-5), Broncos (6-5)-Bears (7-4).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: The Saints can improve their chances at the expense of one of the tentative teams.
  • Analysis: I said last week that both teams would have to lose for this game to be flexed out, and even then the chances would be extremely slim, and the Cowboys won. Texans-Bengals and Raiders-Packers would be better games even if the Giants won in terms of average record, though Saints-Titans and Broncos-Bears are only equivalent games at best, so they’re out. But Raiders-Packers is lopsided (and the undefeated factor is only likely to come into play Week 17), and even if Texans-Bengals finishes a full game ahead of Cowboys-Giants, they’re not nearly as TV-attractive. Regardless of whether the division lead actually ends up on the line, the tentative game bias wins again. (And keep an eye out there, because there’s a chance the division won’t be settled Week 17 and the return match at the Met winds up on NBC as well!)
  • Final prediction: New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (no change).