NFL

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
• Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

• Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 12 (November 27):

• Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City.

Week 13 (December 4):

• Selected game: Detroit @ New Orleans.

Week 14 (December 11):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
• Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and both teams tied for the division lead. For a flex to have ever been in the realm of possibility, one or both teams would have had to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
• Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
• Other possible games: Texans-Bengals and Raiders-Packers are the only games involving two teams over .500; Saints-Titans and Broncos-Bears are also in the mix. Games involving 4-6 teams (Bills-Chargers and Chiefs-Jets) aren’t worth considering.
• Analysis: Probably the Giants and Cowboys would have to both lose to get this game flexed out, and even then it’d still be for the NFC East lead. But that would be an all-6-5 game, three of the other games I mentioned involve teams at 7-3 already, and the fourth is 6-4 v. 10-0. Although Texans-Bengals is potentially the best game overall, in terms of not being lopsided, Raiders-Packers may be the game most able to overcome the Cowboys’ and Giants’ TV-friendliness, and Broncos-Bears is up there is well because of the Bears and the Tebow factor. Given the tentative game bias, the TV-friendliness of the teams, and the stakes, I have a hard time seeing this game flexed out, but I can’t quite bring myself to pull the trigger early.

Week 15 (December 18):

• Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
• Prospects: At one point this game was the only one of NBC’s tentatives involving two teams above .500. Might the Chargers’ mid-season swoon be putting this one in flex jeopardy? Maybe not, given the alternatives.
• Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
• Other possible games: Lions-Raiders, Packers-Chiefs, and Patriots-Broncos are the only remotely good options, with Seahawks-Bears starting to emerge as a dark horse, and Lions-Raiders is the only one involving two teams over .500.

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-6)
WEST 46-4	57-3
		5-5
NORTH 37-3	66-4
7-3
EAST 27-3	5-5
2 tied at 5-5	5-5
SOUTH 17-3	5-5
5-5	5-5

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	ALSO IN NFC EAST CONTENTION
EAST 46-4	56-3	4-6
6-4
SOUTH 37-3	66-3
6-4
WEST 29-1	6-4
4-6	6-4
NORTH 110-0
2 tied at 7-3

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Titans-Texans, Lions-Packers, Ravens-Bengals, Bucs-Falcons, Bills-Patriots, Chargers-Raiders, Chiefs-Broncos.

Week 13 (December 4):

• Tentative game: None. For the first time ever, the NFL has announced that it is pulling a game out of primetime before the two-week deadline – Colts-Pats has become that sucky. Notably, they haven’t announced a replacement yet, which suggests there are multiple candidates…
• Protected games: Jets-Redskins (CBS) and Packers-Giants (FOX).
• Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Lions (7-3)-Saints (7-3), Bengals (6-4)-Steelers (7-3), Falcons (6-4)-Texans (7-3), Titans (5-5)-Bills (5-5), Chiefs (4-5)-Bears (7-3), Broncos (5-5)-Chargers (4-6).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: The Chiefs’ hard charge deserves to be respected, but at best, Chiefs-Bears (only a “dark horse” on last week’s Watch) would be 5-5 v. 7-3, more lopsided and with a worse pair of records than at least three other games.
• Analysis: I felt that Lions-Saints was the heavy favorite and that Bengals-Steelers was the only game with a legitimate shot at passing them, and the Lions won and the Bengals lost. There is no shortage of good options, but the game that doesn’t involve a four-loss team is also probably the most TV-friendly game, which should make this obvious.
• Final prediction: Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints.
• Actual selection: Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints (matches prediction).

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
• Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

• Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 12 (November 17):

• Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City.

Week 13 (December 4):

• Tentative game: None. For the first time ever, the NFL has announced that it is pulling a game out of primetime before the two-week deadline – Colts-Pats has become that sucky. Notably, they haven’t announced a replacement yet, which suggests there are multiple candidates…
• Protected games: Jets-Redskins (CBS) and Packers-Giants (FOX).
• Other possible games: Lions-Saints had the early lead, and may have re-taken it, but Bengals-Steelers has the exact same pair of records. Falcons-Texans is probably third, Titans-Bills is in the mix, and Chiefs-Bears and Broncos-Chargers are dark horses.
• Analysis: Lions-Saints would probably win a tiebreaker if the Lions and Bengals both win or both lose, but the Lions’ hot start has largely faded into the background as a story. These aren’t the Palmer-Ochocinco Bengals, and heaven only knows if they’ll make any noise in the playoffs, but if a battle of 7-3 teams gets passed over for inferior games in a week where the tentative game bias isn’t a factor it makes a mockery of the notion that teams can “play their way into primetime” (even if it arguably applies to the Lions). Falcons-Texans has a legitimate shot if the Lions and Bengals both lose and the Falcons win, but I suspect the NFL would still go with Lions-Saints then; Titans-Bills likely has no shot at all. Basically, it’s Lions-Saints unless the Lions lose to the lowly Panthers and the Bengals beat the Ravens, and it might still be Lions-Saints even then.

Week 14 (December 11):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
• Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and the division lead potentially on the line. A flex isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but one or both teams would have to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
• Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
• Other possible games: Texans-Bengals and Saints-Titans are the only games involving two teams over .500. Bills-Chargers, Raiders-Packers, Broncos-Bears, and Chiefs-Jets are dark horses.

Week 15 (December 18):

• Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
• Prospects: At one point this game was the only one of NBC’s tentatives involving two teams above .500. Might the Chargers’ mid-season swoon be putting this one in flex jeopardy? Maybe not, given the alternatives.
• Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
• Other possible games: Lions-Raiders, Packers-Chiefs, and Patriots-Broncos are the only remotely good options, and Lions-Raiders is the only one involving two teams over .500.

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-5)
WEST 45-4	56-3
All others at 4-5
EAST 36-3	66-3
2 tied at 5-4
NORTH 27-3	5-4
2 tied at 6-3	5-4
SOUTH 17-3	5-4
5-4

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-5)
EAST 46-3	56-3
5-4
SOUTH 37-3	66-3
5-4
WEST 28-1	5-4
2 tied at 3-6	5-4
NORTH 19-0
2 tied at 6-3

• No votes on the poll and the person I usually turn to in these sorts of situations is sitting on the question, so I’m keeping the playoff picture here, and re-opening the poll, for another week.
• Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Titans-Texans, Lions-Packers, Ravens-Bengals, Bucs-Falcons, Bills-Patriots, Chargers-Raiders, Chiefs-Broncos.

Week 12 (November 17):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
• Prospects: 7-3 v. 4-5. After rallying from an 0-3 start to climb above .500 at 4-3, the Chiefs have lost two straight. Hmm. They’re still only a game out of the division lead, but this could still prove lopsided.
• Protected games: Patriots-Eagles (CBS) and Bears-Raiders (FOX).
• Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday’s Watch and their records: Bills (5-4)-Jets (5-4), Bucs (4-5)-Titans (5-4), Bengals (6-3)-Browns (3-6).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: None.
• Analysis: Thanksgiving Weekend usually means a paucity of good games. Had the Bills and Jets both won, it would be hard to argue against their game. As it stands, the best game being a battle of 5-4 teams isn’t going to overcome the tentative game bias. (The Jets would be maxed out on NBC appearances, but with Jets-Dolphins the Week 17 game and protections Weeks 13 and 15, they probably don’t have any more flex opportunities anyway.)
• Final prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (no change).
• Actual selection: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (no change).

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
• Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

• Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 12 (November 17):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
• Prospects: 6-3 v. 4-4. Remember when the Chiefs were 0-3 and widely considered the worst team in the league? Suddenly this game looks pretty good to keep its spot.
• Protected games: Patriots-Eagles (CBS) and Bears-Raiders (FOX).
• Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games (Packers-Lions is an especially bad loss). Bills-Jets is really the only good option, with Bucs-Titans a dark horse and Bengals-Browns very behind. After the protections, NBC isn’t left with very attractive matchups in terms of drawing power.
• Analysis: Bills-Jets does look pretty good, as both teams are in a three-way tie for the division lead at 5-3. It might also be a more attractive matchup in terms of how name the teams are; the Bills seem more credible than the Chiefs. I doubt it’ll overcome the tentative, but if things break down perfectly it’ll be two teams with the same record as the Steelers at 6-4 while the Chiefs will be below .500 and the four-game winning streak will look like a fluke. At that point, it’ll be very tempting to pull the flex.

Week 13 (December 4):

• Tentative game: None. For the first time ever, the NFL has announced that it is pulling a game out of primetime before the two-week deadline – Colts-Pats has become that sucky. Notably, they haven’t announced a replacement yet, which suggests there are multiple candidates…
• Protected games: Jets-Redskins (CBS) and Packers-Giants (FOX).
• Other possible games: Lions-Saints had the early lead, and may have re-taken it, but Bengals-Steelers has the exact same pair of records. Falcons-Texans is probably third, Titans-Bills and Chiefs-Bears are dark horses, and Ravens-Browns is fading.

Week 14 (December 11):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
• Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and the division lead potentially on the line. A flex isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but one or both teams would have to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
• Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
• Other possible games: Texans-Bengals is the only game involving two teams over .500. Bills-Chargers, Raiders-Packers, Saints-Titans, and Chiefs-Jets are dark horses.

Week 15 (December 18):

• Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
• Prospects: Not NBC’s biggest-name late-season matchup, but one of the better ones record-wise. Good chance to keep its spot.
• Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
• Other possible games: Lions-Raiders and Packers-Chiefs and that’s it, both involving AFC West teams at .500 (admittedly, same as Ravens-Chargers). Yeah, I’d say Ravens-Chargers is keeping its spot.

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-4)
WEST 44-4	56-2
2 tied at 4-4
EAST 35-3	66-3
2 tied at 5-3
SOUTH 26-3	5-3
4-4	5-3
NORTH 16-2
6-2

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (3-5)
SOUTH 46-3	56-2
5-3
EAST 36-2	65-3
4-4
WEST 27-1	5-3
2 tied at 2-6	4-4
NORTH 18-0	4-4
6-2

• After last year, I realized that the NFL’s new all-divisional-matchups-Week-17 rule, combined with their division-heavy tiebreak structure and desperate desire to only give NBC games guaranteed to still have playoff implications before primetime, severely limited the sorts of games that NBC could show Week 17, to games with playoff implications for both teams. Thus, I’m changing up the format for the Week 17 Playoff Positioning Watch for the second straight year, only listing, in effect, the possible games. More than ever, the actual state of the races is mostly irrelevant; a quick glance at the standings and the slate of games is all that’s necessary, and that’s not very different from what I do for any other week.
• That makes the Playoff Picture charts I do each week less relevant, but not entirely irrelevant and in some ways more relevant, since I’m likely to refer to them more than the standings while listing the possible games. So for the next week I’ll be running a poll asking whether you would prefer those tables here, or on the NFL Schedule post.
• Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Titans-Texans, Lions-Packers, Ravens-Bengals, Bucs-Falcons, Bills-Patriots, Chargers-Raiders.