Football

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 14 Picks

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Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and tied for the division lead entering Week 12. For a flex to have ever been in the realm of possibility, one or both teams would have had to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Texans (8-3)-Bengals (7-4), Raiders (7-4)-Packers (11-0), Saints (7-3)-Titans (6-5), Broncos (6-5)-Bears (7-4).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: The Saints can improve their chances at the expense of one of the tentative teams.
  • Analysis: I said last week that both teams would have to lose for this game to be flexed out, and even then the chances would be extremely slim, and the Cowboys won. Texans-Bengals and Raiders-Packers would be better games even if the Giants won in terms of average record, though Saints-Titans and Broncos-Bears are only equivalent games at best, so they’re out. But Raiders-Packers is lopsided (and the undefeated factor is only likely to come into play Week 17), and even if Texans-Bengals finishes a full game ahead of Cowboys-Giants, they’re not nearly as TV-attractive. Regardless of whether the division lead actually ends up on the line, the tentative game bias wins again. (And keep an eye out there, because there’s a chance the division won’t be settled Week 17 and the return match at the Met winds up on NBC as well!)
  • Final prediction: New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (no change).

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 12

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After a weekend of upsets, it’s official: we’re going to have a one-loss team in the national championship game, and after a few years of relative lack of controversy the BCS mess is back with a vengeance. An LSU-Alabama rematch may be the least bad option at this point; no one, not even the people who put them there, thinks Arkansas is really the third-best team in the country (though they might prove it with an upset win over LSU), and Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, and Stanford are a rather uninspiring crop of one-loss teams. (By the way, who says the Golden Boot is a fake, manufactured rivalry?) If the two best teams happen to come from the same division of the same conference, is that really all that bad? (Okay, so their first meeting was unwatchable, but still!)

A note on the lineal titles: I’ve split the ’09 Boise State title, giving Oregon a continuing claim to the title because of the sanctions against USC.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 LSU SEC ’06 Boise St.
11-0 LW: A Rat: .834 B Rating: 53.397 C Rating: 46.352 AP: 1 BCS: 1
LSU avoided the epidemic of upsets against Ole Miss, but will their luck run out against Arkansas?
2 Alabama SEC BCS Title
10-1 LW: A Rat: .775 B Rating: 49.410 C Rating: 42.817 AP: 2 BCS: 2
Bama might as well have taken a week off against I-AA Georgia Southern, but now they’re in the catbird seat. But Auburn wants to recover something of their season.
3 Oklahoma State B12 BCS Title
10-1 LW: A Rat: .643 B Rating: 45.045 C Rating: 37.747 AP: 5 BCS: 4
The Cowboys will have a week to stew over the Iowa State loss – but Baylor loss aside, Oklahoma will be a far tougher test.
4 Boise State MWC MWC Title
9-1 LW: A Rat: .675 B Rating: 39.471 C Rating: 33.203 AP: 7 BCS: 7
Boise is looking like they picked a good time to lose, even if they need help from UNLV in two weeks to parlay it into a possible BCS bowl with a loss.
5 Oklahoma B12 Big 12 Title
8-2 LW: A Rat: .580 B Rating: 39.619 C Rating: 33.143 AP: 12 BCS: 9
Disappointing loss, and before facing Oklahoma State they have to take on the team that beat the Cowboys.
6 Oregon P12 Bowl Position
9-2 LW: A Rat: .590 B Rating: 30.983 C Rating: 25.742 AP: 9 BCS: 10
In one fell swoop, Oregon went from a potential national title contender to being a long shot for any BCS bowl. Nothing left to do but take care of their rivals.
7 Houston USA BCS Bowl
11-0 LW: A Rat: .781 B Rating: 33.570 C Rating: 24.027/strong> AP: 8 BCS: 8
Houston is looking like a mortal lock to become the 5th non-BCS team to play in a BCS game – but if they lose to Tulsa they won’t even be playing in the conference title game.
8 Wisconsin B10 Big 10 Title
9-2 LW: A Rat: .647 B Rating: 30.112 C Rating: 22.994 AP: 15 BCS: 16
A rather pedestrian win over Illinois leaves the Badgers open to a slip. Now they play Penn State with the winner headed to Indianapolis.
9 Michigan B10 Bowl Position
9-2 LW: A Rat: .589 B Rating: 23.256 C Rating: 19.192 AP: 17 BCS: 15
The Wolverines just embarassed Nebraska, and while they’re officially not going to the conference title game, they care a whole lot more about the golden opportunity to turn the tables on the Buckeyes.
10 Stanford P12 BCS Title
10-1 LW: A Rat: .681 B Rating: 22.342 C Rating: 16.184 AP: 4 BCS: 6
While no one seriously thinks the Cardinal are worse than V-Tech, you gotta do better than a field-goal victory over a team that struggled to get bowl-eligible, even if they are your rival. No matter, though: the title game awaits.
11 Arkansas SEC SEC Title
9-1 LW: #17 A Rat: .631 B Rating: 17.674 C Rating: 12.505 AP: 3 BCS: 3
While is ridiculous, the Razorbacks are at least trying to live up to it with blowout wins over the likes of Mississippi State. If they can beat LSU, they’d be pretty close to deserving a national title trip.
12 TCU MWC MWC Title
9-2 LW: #16 A Rat: .579 B Rating: 14.502 C Rating: 9.335 AP: 19 BCS: 20
How incredible is it that people have started to whisper about TCU going to a BCS bowl, as a non-BCS conference team, with not one, but two losses?
13 Virginia Tech ACC Prncton/Yale
10-1 LW: A Rat: .604 B Rating: 11.887 C Rating: 8.469 AP: 6 BCS: 5
National title contenders don’t beat 6-5 North Carolina by three points at home, but the ACC has provided enough lack of parity that people are noticing V-Tech’s strong season – and this weekend’s big Commonwealth Cup.
14 Notre Dame   Bowl Position
8-3 LW: #12 A Rat: .462 B Rating: 11.082 C Rating: 7.845 AP: 22 BCS: 22
Pedestrian win over a pedestrian Boston College team, and now Stanford will represent the ultimate challenge for the Golden Domers.
15 Georgia SEC SEC Title
9-2 LW: #14 A Rat: .573 B Rating: 11.539 C Rating: 7.785 AP: 13 BCS: 13
Georgia fans want you to be asking: What if we pulled the upset in the SEC title game? It’s not entirely outside the realm of possibility.
16 Southern Miss USA C-USA Title
9-2 LW: A Rat: .548 B Rating: 11.509 C Rating: 6.287 — —
The Eagles will still make the conference title game with a win over Memphis or a Marshall loss, but can you imagine how huge it would’ve been if it was a ranked unbeaten against a ranked one-loss team?
17 USC P12 ’09 Boise St.
9-2 LW: #20 A Rat: .525 B Rating: 8.106 C Rating: 4.680 AP: 10 SBNBlog: 13
Not only USC, but the Pac-12 is cursing themselves for the Trojans being bowl-ineligible. If USC beats UCLA and Utah and Arizona State lose as well, UCLA will go to the conference title game despite probably not bowling if they lose.
18 South Carolina SEC Bowl Position
9-2 LW: #19 A Rat: .540 B Rating: 7.159 C Rating: 4.548 AP: 14 BCS: 12
When’s the last time the Palmetto State rivalry was this important? It would’ve been even more important had Clemson not just lost.
19 Penn State B10 Big 10 Title
9-2 LW: #23 A Rat: .536 B Rating: 6.736 C Rating: 4.473 AP: 20 BCS: 19
Penn State bounces back and gets their first win without Joe Paterno. But the clash with Wisconsin is humongous.
20 Texas A&M B12 Bowl Position
6-5 LW: #21 A Rat: .346 B Rating: 6.506 C Rating: 3.470 — —
A&M just took another heartbreaking loss to a good team to close out their run in the Big 12 – and possibly, the Lone Star Showdown for good.
21 Toledo MAC MAC Title
7-4 LW: A Rat: .389 B Rating: 5.883 C Rating: 3.027 — —
The Rockets just became the biggest Eastern Michigan fans in the country.
22 Rutgers BST Big East Title
8-3 LW: #26 A Rat: .464 B Rating: 4.482 C Rating: 2.443 — —
Hey, the alleged BCS conference Big East actually mustered a Top 25 team again! Now if South Florida can beat Louisville, we’ll get a Big East BCS representative that isn’t barely bowl-eligible and is actually pretty good!
23 Florida State ACC Bowl Position
7-4 LW: #22 A Rat: .441 B Rating: 4.723 C Rating: 1.716 — —
One-point loss against a team that could make the conference title game means only a one-spot drop. Now without Meyer or Tebow, the Seminoles have a chance to best rival Florida for once.
24 Nebraska B10 Bowl Position
8-3 LW: #18 A Rat: .448 B Rating: 3.091 C Rating: 1.261 AP: 22 BCS: 21
Tim-ber! Catastrophic loss to Michigan sends the Huskers tumbling. Only bowl position matters now, and a potential new rivalry with Iowa could be pivotal in determining that.
25 Clemson ACC ACC Title
9-2 LW: #15 A Rat: .496 B Rating: 2.525 C Rating: -.311 AP: 18 BCS: 17
Of course, Nebraska’s loss is nothing compared to Clemson getting blown out by an NC State team needing the win to become bowl-eligible. Might the Cocks see blood in the water?


2010 TCU Title: #46 Baylor (7-3), .387, -9.526, -10.106

Off Top 25: #27 Missouri (was #25)

Watch List: #26 Miami (FL)

Other Positive B Ratings: Arizona State, Utah State*, #30 Tulsa, Iowa*, #33 Michigan State, #35 Ohio, #36 Georgia Tech*, #38 Northern Illinois, #39 Arkansas State* (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #27 Missouri

Bottom 10: #111 Indiana, #112 UNLV, #113 UAB, #114 Colorado, #115 Kansas, #116 Florida Atlantic, #117 Memphis, #118 Tulane, #119 Akron, #120 New Mexico

Best game of week: Arkansas @ LSU, 11:30am PT, CBS

NFL Schedule: Week 12

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We’re finally out of the byes, and this week we’re getting a Thanksgiving feast featuring two matchups between top-ten teams and… the Cowboys game?

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
(10-0) 31¼-24¾ (7-3) Thu 12:30 PM Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver WW1 92 86 They’re not undefeated, but whoda thought the Lions wouldn’t be putting people to sleep Thanksgiving…
#23(3-7) 18¾-25¾ (6-4) Thu 4:15 PM Jim Nantz, Phil Simms WW1 92 86 …or that their game would be more attractive than the Cowboys’ (or that the Lions might be better than the Cowboys)?
(9-1) 18¼-21¾ (7-3) Thu 8:20 PM Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan WW1 92 86 And whoda thought the Harbaugh Bowl would include one of the two best teams in the league… and it’s not the Ravens?
#19(5-5) 16¾-25¼ #15(5-5) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon CMP 134 86 Two teams trying to keep pace in the wild card and divisional races.
#T27(2-8) 17½-27 (6-4) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin USA 112 93 Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, and others put up the fantasy stats!
#30(2-8) 24-21 (0-10) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 91 104 The Colts need two wins to tie only three teams, so this is what passes for a Luck Sweepstakes clash: two teams who don’t need QBs.
#20(4-6) 20-23 #18(5-5) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Dick Stockton, John Lynch WW1 136 92 Two teams with distant playoff hopes slug it out.
(3-7) 18¾-21¾ (2-8) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 117 138 Got Larry Fitzgerald or Steven Jackson in fantasy? This is the game for you!
#25(4-6) 15-22½ (6-4) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 113 85 The Browns should be just what the doctor ordered for the Bengals to recover from the Ravens loss.
(7-3) 20½-17 #T27(3-7) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 128 137 Matt Leinart starts his run at the helm against a Jags defense that’s become fantasy stars recently.
#26(3-7) 16½-20½ #22(4-6) Sun 4:05 PM 712 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora 94 139 The Hawks hope to continue gorging on iffy teams to climb back into playoff contention.
(7-3) 18½-23 #15(6-4) Sun 4:05 PM 711 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa CMP 135 86 Caleb Hanie starts his run at the helm against a hungry Raiders defense.
(7-3) 26¾-23¾ #17(4-6) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf WW1 93 132 Could Vince Young bring the Eagles up to his own “dream team” rhetoric? Good luck against the Pats.
#16(5-5) 17¾-24¼ #21(4-6) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts USA 85 92 A month ago, whoda thunk the Broncos would be a better team, in the standings and the rankings, than the Chargers?
(7-3) 25¼-14¾ (4-6) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Welcome to Kansas City, Kyle Orton! Say hello to the Steelers defense.
#12(6-4) 22-29 (7-3) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 The best non-Thanksgiving game of the weekend has two of the league’s best quarterbacks fighting for playoff position.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 11

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 12 (November 27):

  • Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Selected game: Detroit @ New Orleans.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and both teams tied for the division lead. For a flex to have ever been in the realm of possibility, one or both teams would have had to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Texans-Bengals and Raiders-Packers are the only games involving two teams over .500; Saints-Titans and Broncos-Bears are also in the mix. Games involving 4-6 teams (Bills-Chargers and Chiefs-Jets) aren’t worth considering.
  • Analysis: Probably the Giants and Cowboys would have to both lose to get this game flexed out, and even then it’d still be for the NFC East lead. But that would be an all-6-5 game, three of the other games I mentioned involve teams at 7-3 already, and the fourth is 6-4 v. 10-0. Although Texans-Bengals is potentially the best game overall, in terms of not being lopsided, Raiders-Packers may be the game most able to overcome the Cowboys’ and Giants’ TV-friendliness, and Broncos-Bears is up there is well because of the Bears and the Tebow factor. Given the tentative game bias, the TV-friendliness of the teams, and the stakes, I have a hard time seeing this game flexed out, but I can’t quite bring myself to pull the trigger early.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: At one point this game was the only one of NBC’s tentatives involving two teams above .500. Might the Chargers’ mid-season swoon be putting this one in flex jeopardy? Maybe not, given the alternatives.
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Raiders, Packers-Chiefs, and Patriots-Broncos are the only remotely good options, with Seahawks-Bears starting to emerge as a dark horse, and Lions-Raiders is the only one involving two teams over .500.

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (4-6)
WEST
46-4		 57-3
5-5
NORTH
37-3		 66-4
7-3
EAST
27-3		 5-5
2 tied at 5-5 5-5
SOUTH
17-3		 5-5
5-5 5-5
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD ALSO IN NFC EAST
CONTENTION
EAST
46-4		 56-3 4-6
6-4
SOUTH
37-3		 66-3
6-4
WEST
29-1		 6-4
4-6 6-4
NORTH
110-0
2 tied at 7-3
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Titans-Texans, Lions-Packers, Ravens-Bengals, Bucs-Falcons, Bills-Patriots, Chargers-Raiders, Chiefs-Broncos.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 13 Picks

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Week 13 (December 4):

  • Tentative game: None. For the first time ever, the NFL has announced that it is pulling a game out of primetime before the two-week deadline – Colts-Pats has become that sucky. Notably, they haven’t announced a replacement yet, which suggests there are multiple candidates…
  • Protected games: Jets-Redskins (CBS) and Packers-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Lions (7-3)-Saints (7-3), Bengals (6-4)-Steelers (7-3), Falcons (6-4)-Texans (7-3), Titans (5-5)-Bills (5-5), Chiefs (4-5)-Bears (7-3), Broncos (5-5)-Chargers (4-6).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: The Chiefs’ hard charge deserves to be respected, but at best, Chiefs-Bears (only a “dark horse” on last week’s Watch) would be 5-5 v. 7-3, more lopsided and with a worse pair of records than at least three other games.
  • Analysis: I felt that Lions-Saints was the heavy favorite and that Bengals-Steelers was the only game with a legitimate shot at passing them, and the Lions won and the Bengals lost. There is no shortage of good options, but the game that doesn’t involve a four-loss team is also probably the most TV-friendly game, which should make this obvious.
  • Final prediction: Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints.
  • Actual selection: Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints (matches prediction).

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 11

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All season I’ve been saying the same thing: that no one, not even the pollsters, really believes that Oklahoma State is the best non-SEC team in the country. There are a number of reasons for that – namely, a weak nonconference slate and Texas being the only team in positive B Points they beat by more than a single score – but really, what it ultimately comes down to is that it’s Oklahoma State. This is a team that has definitively been “little brother” for the longest time, maybe since Barry Sanders was at the school. Over the last decade, while Bob Stoops’ Oklahoma was contending for national and Big 12 titles, Oklahoma State, while often being good, plied its trade deep in the shadows of the Sooners. Now it’s Oklahoma State who’s contending for a national title? You’ll have to excuse me – and, I suspect, many others – for being a bit skeptical.

Well, not anymore. By blowing out the team that beat Oklahoma (admittedly, that hasn’t looked like they can beat anyone else) by a downright apocalyptic score (66-6), Oklahoma State has established their dominance, and with upsets to the Cardinal and Broncos, now stand as one of only three undefeated teams in the country, enough to propel them past idle Big Brother to the top spot in the C Ratings. As much as the Cowboys look like last year’s Oregon team (essentially, a sacrificial lamb for the SEC team du jour to beat), the argument over whether they should go to the national championship game is pretty much academic at this point.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Oklahoma State B12 BCS Title
10-0 LW: A Rat: .728 B Rating: 49.978 C Rating: 42.806 AP: 2 BCS: 2
How many people watched the potential national championship contender Friday night in their tuneup for Bedlam?
2 Oklahoma B12 2010 TCU
8-1 LW: A Rat: .674 B Rating: 49.507 C Rating: 42.541 AP: 5 BCS: 5
Idle hands sends the Sooners tumbling from the top spot, but not to who you’d think. And they have to face a Baylor team out to prove they deserve their ranking in the polls.
3 LSU SEC ’06 Boise St.
10-0 LW: A Rat: .821 B Rating: 47.947 C Rating: 42.286 AP: 1 BCS: 1
Playing Western Kentucky, the Tigers might as well have taken the week off, and Ole Miss won’t be much better preparation for the clash with the Hogs.
4 Alabama SEC BCS Title
9-1 LW: A Rat: .775 B Rating: 48.648 C Rating: 42.193 AP: 3 BCS: 3
As far as the polls and BCS are concerned, Alabama is in prime position to take advantage of a Cowboy stumble… but do we really want THAT rematch in the national title game?
5 Oregon P12 ’09 Boise St.
9-1 LW: A Rat: .672 B Rating: 39.919 C Rating: 34.071 AP: 4 BCS: 4
The Ducks have lost only one game all year… and it was against a little team I like to call LSU. Now the polls and BCS are recognizing them as the national-championship-caliber team they are.
6 Boise State MWC MWC Title
8-1 LW: A Rat: .676 B Rating: 34.219 C Rating: 28.631 AP: 10 BCS: 10
All of a sudden, the Broncos are hoping for a TCU loss just to go to the Las Vegas Bowl.
7 Wisconsin B10 Big 10 Title
8-2 LW: A Rat: .641 B Rating: 28.938 C Rating: 22.315 AP: 15 BCS: 17
Their two losses came on the road to decent teams by tight margins, but as far as the polls are concerend, two losses are two losses. But now the Badgers control their own destiny for the conference title game.
8 Stanford P12 BCS Title
9-1 LW: A Rat: .692 B Rating: 22.831 C Rating: 16.952 AP: 8 BCS: 9
Suddenly the Cardinal won’t even make the conference championship, and only the grace of the BCS would put them in one of those games. And rival Cal is feisty.
9 Houston USA BCS Bowl
10-0 LW: A Rat: .768 B Rating: 24.283 C Rating: 15.538 AP: 11 BCS: 11
Houston just continues to impress, and now Gameday is coming to town – for a game that’s arguably the least challenging of the remaining games.
10 Michigan B10 Big 10 Title
8-2 LW: #12 A Rat: .569 B Rating: 16.826 C Rating: 13.437 AP: 20 BCS: 18
Big win over a good Illinois team sends the Wolverines cruising up the rankings. But Nebraska is coming to Ann Arbor, and they will not be easy.
11 Southern Miss USA C-USA Title
9-1 LW: A Rat: .622 B Rating: 14.578 C Rating: 10.209 AP: 22 BCS: 20
Is Southern Miss cracking under the pressure? They let Central Florida get within one at home, and they’ll fall next week after losing to UAB.
12 Notre Dame   Bowl Position
7-3 LW: A Rat: .449 B Rating: 11.179 C Rating: 8.491 AP: 24 Coaches: 25
Pollsters are taking note of the Golden Domers again. Another weak ACC foe will serve as tune-up for a huge clash with Stanford.
13 Virginia Tech ACC Prncton/Yale
9-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .607 B Rating: 11.816 C Rating: 8.373 AP: 9 BCS: 8
To look at the pollsters, you’d think V-Tech was a national title contender; honestly, no one thinks that. But they’re one Cavalier loss away, even at their own hands, from the ACC title game.
14 Georgia SEC SEC Title
8-2 LW: #19 A Rat: .558 B Rating: 11.229 C Rating: 8.366 AP: 13 BCS: 14
The Tigers were ranked in the polls, but they looked like complete scrubs against Georgia, who have been justifying their own ranking of late. Now to beat Kentucky to lock up a trip to the SEC title game.
15 Clemson ACC ACC Title
9-1 LW: A Rat: .584 B Rating: 11.883 C Rating: 8.241 AP: 7 BCS: 7
Clemson was so unimpressive in edging Wake and locking up their ACC title game spot that, combined with how their past opponents did, they might as well not have played, or even lost. Will they be ready for the rival Cocks in two weeks?
16 TCU MWC MWC Title
8-2 LW: #18 A Rat: .554 B Rating: 12.695 C Rating: 8.072 AP: 19 BCS: 19
Lucky or not, TCU impressed the nation with their win over Boise and could be leaving the conference with a bang.
17 Arkansas SEC SEC Title
9-1 LW: #21 A Rat: .614 B Rating: 11.888 C Rating: 7.312 AP: 6 BCS: 6
Arkansas’ defense gave them an even bigger blowout win over Tennessee, this one big enough to actually help them in the C Ratings. They need to repeat the feat against Mississippi State to prepare for LSU.
18 Nebraska B10 Big 10 Title
8-2 LW: #20 A Rat: .527 B Rating: 8.382 C Rating: 5.837 AP: 17 BCS: 16
It wasn’t pretty, but the Huskers did take advantage of reeling Penn State, and while beating the Wolverines won’t be easy, if they do so they’ll be in prime position to take advantage of a Spartan stumble.
19 South Carolina SEC SEC Title
8-2 LW: #16 A Rat: .520 B Rating: 7.007 C Rating: 4.435 AP: 14 BCS: 12
A narrow victory over a Florida team not up to their usual standards won’t cut it. They’ll drop further next week after playing the FCS Citadel.
20 USC P12 Probation
8-2 LW: #26 A Rat: .521 B Rating: 7.741 C Rating: 4.379 AP: 18 SBNBlog: 18
While the rest of the South embarass themselves, USC’s blowout of Washington propel them back onto the Top 25. But Oregon will not be easy.
21 Texas A&M B12 Bowl Elgblty
5-5 LW: #15 A Rat: .302 B Rating: 5.827 C Rating: 4.192 — —
All but one of A&M’s losses came to teams ranked in the polls at the time, all but one came to teams ranked in the C Ratings now, all but one was within a score… but losses are losses, and they’re nowhere near the polls and not yet bowl-eligible.
22 Florida State ACC Bowl Position
7-3 LW: #22 A Rat: .501 B Rating: 6.729 C Rating: 3.832 AP: 23 BCS: 25
Pedestrian four-point win over Miami (FL), and now Clemson will keep them out of the conference title game. On the plus side, they’re getting poll respect and can play spoiler in the Coastal against Virginia.
23 Penn State B10 Big 10 Title
8-2 LW: #17 A Rat: .525 B Rating: 5.467 C Rating: 3.636 AP: 21 BCS: 21
Pollsters may be penalizing the Nittany Lions for off-field discretions, but that doesn’t explain why the C Ratings drop Penn State so far for a tight loss against a good Nebraska team. Ohio State smells blood.
24 Toledo MAC MAC Title
6-4 LW: #23 A Rat: .355 B Rating: 4.490 C Rating: 2.452 — —
Allowing over 60 points is never good for score ratio, and keeping the margin of victory tight isn’t good either, but Toledo did better than that against Central Michigan.
25 Missouri* B12 Bowl Elgblty
5-5 LW: A Rat: .298 B Rating: .617 C Rating: .708 — —
Big win over Texas propels the Tigers into positive B Points and has them replacing the Longhorns on the Top 25 – even if as just the best of a bad lot.


25 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #27 Arizona State (was ), Texas (was #25)

Watch List: #26 Rutgers, #27 Arizona State, Miami (FL), Michigan State*

Other Positive B Ratings: #33 Tulsa*, #36 Ohio, #39 Northern Illinois* (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: Texas, Georgia Tech, #37 Cincinnati, #41 Iowa

Bottom 10: #111 Kansas, #112 Buffalo, #113 UNLV, #114 Colorado, #115 UAB, #116 Florida Atlantic, #117 Akron, #118 Tulane, #119 Memphis, #120 New Mexico

Best game of week: USC @ Oregon, 5pm PT, ABC

NFL Schedule: Week 11

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AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (4-5)
WEST
45-4		 56-3
All others at 4-5
EAST
36-3		 66-3
2 tied at 5-4
NORTH
27-3		 5-4
2 tied at 6-3 5-4
SOUTH
17-3		 5-4
5-4
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (4-5)
EAST
46-3		 56-3
5-4
SOUTH
37-3		 66-3
5-4
WEST
28-1		 5-4
2 tied at 3-6 5-4
NORTH
19-0
2 tied at 6-3

To help me see where I’d rather have the playoff picture chart, I’m reposting it on this post this week. Last four byes this week: three really good teams… and the Colts.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#T13(5-4) 22¾-16¼ #20(4-5) Thu 8:20 PM Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan WW1 92 93 Jets try to bounce back from getting embarrassed in primetime.
#27(2-7) 20¼-27¼ (6-3) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 113 91 Suh and the Lions defense try to get back on track against Newton and the Panthers.
#19(4-5) 17¼-31¼ (9-0) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver USA 136 86 Bucs may need to score the huge upset in the Battle of Bays to stay in playoff contention.
#12(5-4) 24½-17 (3-6) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa CMP 93 134 Cowboys hope to take advantage of their struggling rivals to keep pace in the playoff race.
(6-3) 16¾-23¾ (6-3) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf WW1 112 92 Big showdown for a share of the AFC North lead and the top wild-card spot.
#15(5-4) 23-22 #25(2-7) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 85 117 Mystified at Raiders being only a one-point favorite over a bad Vikings team.
#16(5-4) 20½-22½ (2-7) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 137 94 Don’t get too excited Fins fans – you’re still closer to Luck than the playoffs, but the Bills are reeling.
#26(3-6) 16¾-17¾ (3-6) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 104 132 The Jags defense is starting to make noise for fantasy teams, and the Browns offense should oblige.
#23(3-6) 18-21 #30(2-7) Sun 4:05 PM 712 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 106 138 The Rams want to recover something from their season, but the Hawks got an even huger win.
(3-6) 15¾-25¼ (8-1) Sun 4:05 PM 713 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin CMP 139 92 The Niners continue their march to dominate the NFC West.
#17(5-4) 19-25 #T13(5-4) Sun 4:15 PM 705 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts WW1 85 93 Interconference showdown between two teams fighting for a playoff spot.
#18(4-5) 20¾-24¼ (6-3) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms USA 86 94 Two name teams fighting for the playoffs but going in different directions.
#21(3-6) 21½-25½ (6-3) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 If the Dream Team couldn’t beat the lowly Cardinals, what could they possibly do against the Giants?
#22(4-5) 15¾-30¾ (6-3) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 The Chiefs have started looking horrible again, and the Patriots will be no help.

Bye:

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 10

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 12 (November 17):

  • Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Tentative game: None. For the first time ever, the NFL has announced that it is pulling a game out of primetime before the two-week deadline – Colts-Pats has become that sucky. Notably, they haven’t announced a replacement yet, which suggests there are multiple candidates…
  • Protected games: Jets-Redskins (CBS) and Packers-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Saints had the early lead, and may have re-taken it, but Bengals-Steelers has the exact same pair of records. Falcons-Texans is probably third, Titans-Bills is in the mix, and Chiefs-Bears and Broncos-Chargers are dark horses.
  • Analysis: Lions-Saints would probably win a tiebreaker if the Lions and Bengals both win or both lose, but the Lions’ hot start has largely faded into the background as a story. These aren’t the Palmer-Ochocinco Bengals, and heaven only knows if they’ll make any noise in the playoffs, but if a battle of 7-3 teams gets passed over for inferior games in a week where the tentative game bias isn’t a factor it makes a mockery of the notion that teams can “play their way into primetime” (even if it arguably applies to the Lions). Falcons-Texans has a legitimate shot if the Lions and Bengals both lose and the Falcons win, but I suspect the NFL would still go with Lions-Saints then; Titans-Bills likely has no shot at all. Basically, it’s Lions-Saints unless the Lions lose to the lowly Panthers and the Bengals beat the Ravens, and it might still be Lions-Saints even then.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and the division lead potentially on the line. A flex isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but one or both teams would have to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Texans-Bengals and Saints-Titans are the only games involving two teams over .500. Bills-Chargers, Raiders-Packers, Broncos-Bears, and Chiefs-Jets are dark horses.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: At one point this game was the only one of NBC’s tentatives involving two teams above .500. Might the Chargers’ mid-season swoon be putting this one in flex jeopardy? Maybe not, given the alternatives.
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Raiders, Packers-Chiefs, and Patriots-Broncos are the only remotely good options, and Lions-Raiders is the only one involving two teams over .500.

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (4-5)
WEST
45-4		 56-3
All others at 4-5
EAST
36-3		 66-3
2 tied at 5-4
NORTH
27-3		 5-4
2 tied at 6-3 5-4
SOUTH
17-3		 5-4
5-4
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (4-5)
EAST
46-3		 56-3
5-4
SOUTH
37-3		 66-3
5-4
WEST
28-1		 5-4
2 tied at 3-6 5-4
NORTH
19-0
2 tied at 6-3
  • No votes on the poll and the person I usually turn to in these sorts of situations is sitting on the question, so I’m keeping the playoff picture here, and re-opening the poll, for another week.
  • Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Titans-Texans, Lions-Packers, Ravens-Bengals, Bucs-Falcons, Bills-Patriots, Chargers-Raiders, Chiefs-Broncos.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 12 Picks

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Week 12 (November 17):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
  • Prospects: 7-3 v. 4-5. After rallying from an 0-3 start to climb above .500 at 4-3, the Chiefs have lost two straight. Hmm. They’re still only a game out of the division lead, but this could still prove lopsided.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Eagles (CBS) and Bears-Raiders (FOX).
  • Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday’s Watch and their records: Bills (5-4)-Jets (5-4), Bucs (4-5)-Titans (5-4), Bengals (6-3)-Browns (3-6).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: None.
  • Analysis: Thanksgiving Weekend usually means a paucity of good games. Had the Bills and Jets both won, it would be hard to argue against their game. As it stands, the best game being a battle of 5-4 teams isn’t going to overcome the tentative game bias. (The Jets would be maxed out on NBC appearances, but with Jets-Dolphins the Week 17 game and protections Weeks 13 and 15, they probably don’t have any more flex opportunities anyway.)
  • Final prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (no change).
  • Actual selection: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (no change).