Football

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 10

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Well, that was disappointing. Neither team is going to get the top spot coming out of it. No, Oklahoma responded to moving up to by blowing out a good Texas A&M team, and as a result they, not LSU, benefit from Alabama falling out of the top spot. We’ll see if they hang onto it after a week off, but if Stanford loses and Oklahoma keeps winning I will definitely push them for a trip to the national championship game.

But let’s forget about that, and let’s forget about this week’s huge matchup between Stanford and Oregon, and let’s even forget about the mess at Penn State. I want to talk about this week’s game between Boise State and TCU.

I have another commitment, so I won’t be able to watch the game, but I would if I could and I hope you will too. And not because it’s Boise’s biggest challenge, at least for the rest of the season, towards getting another BCS bid. See, last year Boise State announced that it was leaving the WAC to join the Mountain West. This looked for all the world to create the ultimate non-BCS conference, with so many good teams there was no way anyone would stop them from becoming a full-fledged BCS conference. Utah, BYU, TCU, and Boise State? You’re going to tell me that’s any less a test of a champion than the Big East? And this was when it was looking like the Pac-10 was going to cause college football armageddon, gobbling up half the Big 12 to form the first 16-team superconference. The Mountain West was in perfect position to pick off at least some of the remainder, meaning that along with the four elite teams it already had, it would now boast some bona fide BCS conference teams on top of that. Are you going to deny BCS status to Kansas and Kansas State? Didn’t think so.

And then… the deal fell through. The Big 12 and ESPN finagled a way to keep the conference together, the Pac-10 was left with Colorado, they plucked Utah from the Mountain West to get to 12 and a championship game, and that’s when it all started going wrong. First it was Utah. Then BYU left to go independent. And then TCU announced it was leaving for the Big East, and then flipped to the Big 12 without playing a game in the Big East. Just like that, the one elite non-BCS school the Mountain West was left with was the school that thought they wouldn’t be the one elite school in the conference anymore: Boise State. The Mountain West made up for the losses by adding more WAC schools – Nevada, Fresno State – but Boise State, who thought they were joining the non-BCS conference to end all non-BCS conferences, now found themselves in a conference not much different from the WAC, and maybe worse than Conference USA. Is Air Force really that much better than Nevada?

But TCU’s move to the Big East came too late for it to take effect this season. That meant that, for one season, Boise State would come in to and TCU would remain in a depleted conference, before the Horned Frogs left for a BCS conference the following year. So this weekend’s game between Boise State and TCU is more than the biggest game of the year in the Mountain West. For all that Boise thought their move to the Mountain West would break up the BCS oligarchy, this weekend they will play the one game their move to the Mountain West amounts to.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Oklahoma B12 2010 TCU
8-1 LW: A Rat: .674 B Rating: 51.093 C Rating: 44.248 AP: 7 BCS: 6
Not only have the Sooners beaten multiple good teams, they’ve blown them out. You’re telling me they’d be passed up for Boise or, heaven forbid, Alabama?
2 LSU SEC ’06 Boise St.
9-0 LW: A Rat: .813 B Rating: 47.166 C Rating: 42.202 AP: 1 BCS: 1
LSU is now in pole position to cruise to the BCS title game, but they better use the Western Kentucky and Mississippi games to get ready for a potentially huge clash with Arkansas.
3 Alabama SEC BCS Title
8-1 LW: A Rat: .766 B Rating: 42.836 C Rating: 37.022 AP: 4 BCS: 3
The Tide’s run at the top spot comes to an end along with their undefeated record. They’ll try to get back on track with a trip to Mississippi State.
4 Boise State MWC BCS Title
8-0 LW: A Rat: .794 B Rating: 41.152 C Rating: 34.650 AP: 5 BCS: 5
Will the Broncos players savor this weekend’s game against TCU? Or will they just play for their BCS lives?
5 Oklahoma State B12 BCS Title
9-0 LW: A Rat: .703 B Rating: 38.108 C Rating: 32.783 AP: 2 BCS: 2
The Cowboys put away a team that was unbeaten until the Oklahoma game and now turn their attention to the team that upended the Sooners.
6 Stanford P12 BCS Title
9-0 LW: A Rat: .823 B Rating: 36.517 C Rating: 29.278 AP: 3 BCS: 4
Oregon State’s A Rating is atrocious, so Stanford slips despite the big win. But the Beavers’ rivals may be the biggest test the Cardinal face all year.
7 Oregon P12 ’09 Boise State
8-1 LW: A Rat: .667 B Rating: 26.542 C Rating: 21.921 AP: 6 BCS: 7
Oregon could be a national championship contender if they hadn’t scheduled LSU to start the year. Against Stanford, they’ll have a chance to look like one.
8 Wisconsin B10 Big 10 Title
7-2 LW: A Rat: .619 B Rating: 24.689 C Rating: 19.046 AP: 16 BCS: 18
Wisconsin got back on track blowing out Purdue. Now Minnesota will serve as warm-up for a tough stretch run.
9 Houston USA BCS Bowl
9-0 LW: A Rat: .756 B Rating: 21.456 C Rating: 14.616 AP: 11 BCS: 11
Another week, another blowout – two, counting the Tulane game earlier this week.
10 Southern Miss USA C-USA Title
8-1 LW: #16 A Rat: .632 B Rating: 15.476 C Rating: 11.334 AP: 25 BCS: 22
While the AP poll finally has no choice but to recognize the Eagles, their blowout of East Carolina propels them into the top 10 here, right behind the class of the conference.
11 Clemson ACC ACC Title
8-1 LW: A Rat: .587 B Rating: 12.734 C Rating: 9.262 AP: 9 BCS: 9
Idle hands offset by Michigan’s problems, but now their hopes of making the conference title game may hinge on beating Wake Forest.
12 Michigan B10 Big 10 Title
7-2 LW: A Rat: .548 B Rating: 11.867 C Rating: 8.904 AP: 22 BCS: 24
Iowa is a pretty respectable team and the Wolverines got within a score, but that’s still not a loss you want to take, especially with the Spartans now holding divisional pole position.
13 Notre Dame   Bowl Position
6-3 LW: #19 A Rat: .419 B Rating: 8.723 C Rating: 6.678 — —
The Golden Domers are once again knocking on the door of the polls after a win over a good team, and now shouldn’t have any trouble with 2-7 Maryland.
14 Virginia Tech ACC ACC Title
8-1 LW: #15 A Rat: .602 B Rating: 8.804 C Rating: 5.758 AP: 10 BCS: 10
Idle hands outweighed by Nebraska losing. And now that they’ve dispatched Georgia Tech, if they handle North Carolina as they should Virginia will be their only obstacle for the title game.
15 Texas A&M B12 Bowl Elgblty
5-4 LW: #17 A Rat: .342 B Rating: 6.794 C Rating: 5.284 — —
The Aggies get blown out by Oklahoma and somehow move up. Well, it was 16 points to the best team in the rankings. But it doesn’t get that much easier with a trip to Manhattan next.
16 South Carolina SEC SEC Title
7-2 LW: A Rat: .506 B Rating: 7.297 C Rating: 5.020 AP: 15 BCS: 13
The Gamecocks got blown out by the Hogs, but still have a good chance to win the division. Florida comes to town next.
17 Penn State B10 Big 10 Title
8-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .607 B Rating: 7.138 C Rating: 4.910 AP: 12 BCS: 12
Joe Paterno ends his career on a 7-game winning streak and his team bowling, but lost his last bowl game, last year’s Outback Bowl against Florida – and will have never coached against Nebraska in a conference game, a tall act for Tom Bradley.
18 TCU MWC MWC Title
7-2 LW: #25 A Rat: .555 B Rating: 10.132 C Rating: 4.866 Coaches: 24 —
Huge win over Wyoming + losses by other teams = the Horned Frogs may have stopped shuffling on and off the rankings, just in time for the big showdown with Boise State.
19 Georgia SEC SEC Title
7-2 LW: #23 A Rat: .523 B Rating: 6.062 C Rating: 4.189 AP: 14 BCS: 15
Blowout win over New Mexico State propels the Bulldogs into the top 20, and for the moment they hold pole position in the SEC East. But Auburn isn’t New Mexico State.
20 Nebraska B10 Big 10 Title
7-2 LW: #12 A Rat: .519 B Rating: 6.618 C Rating: 4.114 AP: 19 BCS: 19
Aaaaand one loss to a mediocre Northwestern team later, and the Huskers have given up all the gains they made last week. Who knows what’ll happen when they play scandal-ridden Penn State?
21 Arkansas SEC SEC Title
8-1 LW: #21 A Rat: .583 B Rating: 7.578 C Rating: 3.564 AP: 8 BCS: 8
Blowout win over South Carolina, but they see no benefit from it. Now Tennessee and Mississippi State will serve as warm-ups for the showdown with LSU.
22 Florida State ACC ACC Title
6-3 LW: #22 A Rat: .487 B Rating: 6.208 C Rating: 3.390 — —
With teams losing, Florida State stands pat despite idle hands. Now to take on their less-recently-scandal-ridden rivals.
23 Toledo MAC MAC Title
5-4 LW: #18 A Rat: .333 B Rating: 4.921 C Rating: 3.255 — —
Toledo will bounce back next week after another 120-point game attracting national attention. Will it attract poll votes their way?
24 Arizona State P12 Pac-12 Title
6-3 LW: #20 A Rat: .422 B Rating: 4.886 C Rating: 2.419 — —
That was a loss the Sun Devils could not take. They play nothing but bad-to-iffy teams the rest of the way, but it won’t make up for costing themselves a trip to the conference title game.
25 Texas* B12 Big 12 Title
6-2 LW: #33 A Rat: .498 B Rating: 4.919 C Rating: 2.233 AP: 21 BCS: 16
Blowout win over Texas Tech propels the Longhorns back into the Top 25, just in time for a tough stretch that starts with a road trip to Missouri.


28 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Princeton-Yale Title: #27 Georgia Tech (7-2), .482, 3.251, .258

Off Top 25: #26 USC (was )

Watch List: #26 USC, #27 Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), Cincinnati*, #30 Rutgers

Other Positive B Ratings: Iowa, #38 Ohio (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #35 West Virginia

Bottom 10: #111 Kansas, #112 Buffalo, #113 UNLV, #114 Colorado, #115 Akron, #116 Florida Atlantic, #117 UAB, #118 Tulane, #119 Memphis, #120 New Mexico

Best game of week: Oregon @ Stanford, 5pm PT, ABC

NFL Schedule: Week 10

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No thanks to Awful Announcing, you get the schedule a day after the Thursday Night game. I’ve kept the MXS and records for that game what they were prior to the game. AA says they should have it up Wednesday or Thursday afternoon from now on, but if they don’t next week I may have to look for a site that posts complete announcer information for each game before Thursday – I don’t use the506 because in my experience, they don’t do sideline reporters. Speaking of the506, they’re the real problem; the thread I get radio assignments from wasn’t updated late Thursday night, after the game was over.

And with that, we are now in the second half of the NFL season, with some teams crossing the border last week.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#19(4-4) 20½-27½ #16(4-4) Thu 8:20 PM Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan WW1 92 93 Showdown for divisional supremacy kicks off the Thursday Night schedule.
(2-6) 16¼-30¼ #17(3-5) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Dick Stockton, John Lynch, Jennifer Hale 137 85 After the loss to the Bears, can the Eagles get back on track, or are the Cards too desperate for respect?
#26(2-6) 20¼-17¼ (0-9) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Spero Dedes, Steve Beuerlein 106 112 More bad news: Colts are now the last winless team. Can they get off the schnide against the Jags?
(3-5) 19¼-22¼ #20(4-4) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker CMP 113 94 The Chiefs just got embarrassed by the Dolphins, and now they have Tim Tebow to deal with.
(6-3) 22¼-19¼ (6-2) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts USA 91 82 The AFC North has been dominant, but the Bengals aren’t getting respect; will that change if they beat Pittsburgh?
#14(5-3) 21¼-26¾ #15(4-4) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms 86 132 Interconference showdown between two teams fighting for a playoff spot.
(6-3) 25-25 #T12(5-3) Sun 1:00 PM 712 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 92 134 Showdown for divisional supremacy one of the highlights of the early games.
(1-7) 17¼-20¾ #27(3-5) Sun 1:00 PM 714 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora 138 128 People haven’t noticed the Browns aren’t that bad, or that the Rams are.
#25(3-5) 17-20½ #30(1-7) Sun 1:00 PM 713 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 135 104 Can the high from the Dolphins’ first win continue into a home clash with the Redskins?
#21(4-4) 21¼-24¾ #T22(2-6) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 80 93 Looking at the power rankings and line, you’d never guess the Titans had two more wins.
(6-3) 24¼-21¼ #18(4-4) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon WW1 117 136 The Texans spent nearly a decade without making the playoffs. Now they could get a first-round bye.
(6-2) 23¾-17¼ (2-6) Sun 4:05 PM 715 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf USA 113 93 Will the homes of the Fox early games really want to see the hapless Seahawks get crushed by the Ravens?
(6-2) 21¼-23¾ #T12(5-3) Sun 4:15 PM 711 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin CMP 94 92 Da Bears would be in the playoffs right now, and revenge against the Lions would make all Cutler’s sacks worthwhile.
(6-2) 19½-23 (7-1) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver WW1 85 86 The Niners have a chance to prove their bona fides against Eli and Co. in front of a nearly national audience.
(5-3) 22¾-24¼ (5-3) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Showdown for divisional supremacy starts the NBC flex schedule.
#T22(2-6) 18¾-32¼ (8-0) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 The Packers get a primetime showcase for their dominance against a hated rival.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 9

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 12 (November 17):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
  • Prospects: 6-3 v. 4-4. Remember when the Chiefs were 0-3 and widely considered the worst team in the league? Suddenly this game looks pretty good to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Eagles (CBS) and Bears-Raiders (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games (Packers-Lions is an especially bad loss). Bills-Jets is really the only good option, with Bucs-Titans a dark horse and Bengals-Browns very behind. After the protections, NBC isn’t left with very attractive matchups in terms of drawing power.
  • Analysis: Bills-Jets does look pretty good, as both teams are in a three-way tie for the division lead at 5-3. It might also be a more attractive matchup in terms of how name the teams are; the Bills seem more credible than the Chiefs. I doubt it’ll overcome the tentative, but if things break down perfectly it’ll be two teams with the same record as the Steelers at 6-4 while the Chiefs will be below .500 and the four-game winning streak will look like a fluke. At that point, it’ll be very tempting to pull the flex.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Tentative game: None. For the first time ever, the NFL has announced that it is pulling a game out of primetime before the two-week deadline – Colts-Pats has become that sucky. Notably, they haven’t announced a replacement yet, which suggests there are multiple candidates…
  • Protected games: Jets-Redskins (CBS) and Packers-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Saints had the early lead, and may have re-taken it, but Bengals-Steelers has the exact same pair of records. Falcons-Texans is probably third, Titans-Bills and Chiefs-Bears are dark horses, and Ravens-Browns is fading.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and the division lead potentially on the line. A flex isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but one or both teams would have to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Texans-Bengals is the only game involving two teams over .500. Bills-Chargers, Raiders-Packers, Saints-Titans, and Chiefs-Jets are dark horses.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: Not NBC’s biggest-name late-season matchup, but one of the better ones record-wise. Good chance to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Raiders and Packers-Chiefs and that’s it, both involving AFC West teams at .500 (admittedly, same as Ravens-Chargers). Yeah, I’d say Ravens-Chargers is keeping its spot.

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (4-4)
WEST
44-4		 56-2
2 tied at 4-4
EAST
35-3		 66-3
2 tied at 5-3
SOUTH
26-3		 5-3
4-4 5-3
NORTH
16-2
6-2
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (3-5)
SOUTH
46-3		 56-2
5-3
EAST
36-2		 65-3
4-4
WEST
27-1		 5-3
2 tied at 2-6 4-4
NORTH
18-0		 4-4
6-2
  • After last year, I realized that the NFL’s new all-divisional-matchups-Week-17 rule, combined with their division-heavy tiebreak structure and desperate desire to only give NBC games guaranteed to still have playoff implications before primetime, severely limited the sorts of games that NBC could show Week 17, to games with playoff implications for both teams. Thus, I’m changing up the format for the Week 17 Playoff Positioning Watch for the second straight year, only listing, in effect, the possible games. More than ever, the actual state of the races is mostly irrelevant; a quick glance at the standings and the slate of games is all that’s necessary, and that’s not very different from what I do for any other week.
  • That makes the Playoff Picture charts I do each week less relevant, but not entirely irrelevant and in some ways more relevant, since I’m likely to refer to them more than the standings while listing the possible games. So for the next week I’ll be running a poll asking whether you would prefer those tables here, or on the NFL Schedule post.
  • Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Titans-Texans, Lions-Packers, Ravens-Bengals, Bucs-Falcons, Bills-Patriots, Chargers-Raiders.

NFL Schedule: Week 9

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Gotta get this done earlier next week once Thursday night games start. Vegas seems to disagree with the power rankings a lot, I notice. Favorite playing at home can’t fully explain some of these lines.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#14(4-3) 21¼-23¾ (5-2) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms WW1 92 112 Who would have thought these two teams would be fighting for the division lead? Or that the Bills would be favored?
#25(3-4) 15¼-25¾ (5-3) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 106 137 Why is Houston favored by so much over a team around .500?
(0-7) 18¼-22¼ #18(4-3) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 94 138 Should be easy for the Chiefs to continue their comeback against the stinky Dolphins.
(2-5) 17-28 #20(3-4) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 117 85 Evidently Vegas thinks these teams are separated by a lot more than one win and eight spots.
(6-1) 20¾-16¾ #T23(3-4) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa CMP 139 93 The Niners continue to showcase their surprisingly good team against the floundering Skins.
#17(4-3) 21-29 (5-3) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Dick Stockton, John Lynch USA 136 86 Saints better come back from the Rams shocker quickly with the division lead on the line.
#12(4-3) 25¾-19¼ (0-8) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora 91 113 Can the Falcons avoid their division mate’s fate against a winless team?
#27(2-5) 17¾-25¼ #19(4-3) Sun 4:05 PM 711 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf CMP 104 139 Showdown of two new quarterbacks on the hot seat quickly.
(5-2) 19¼-22¼ #21(4-3) Sun 4:05 PM 712 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 93 134 Power rankings say Bengals substantially better; Vegas disagrees. Still can’t get no respect.
(5-2) 21-30 (5-2) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver USA 86 94 What luck: same year Eli compares himself to Tom, Giants play Pats… and he may actually be outplaying Brady.
(7-0) 28¼-22¾ #15(4-3) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin WW1 85 92 Bad time to have a heartbreaking loss, entering a game against the best team in the league.
(1-6) 19-22 #30(1-6) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 138 91 Divisional showdown between two Luck contenders.
(5-2) 19½-22½ (6-2) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Ravens embarrassed Steelers in Game 1 of this classic rivalry. Pittsburgh wants revenge, and to prove themselves.
(4-3) 20-27½ #16(3-4) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 The Eagles get another primetime game to try to move back into playoff position.

Bye:

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 9

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Median Expected Score
LSU 18½
Alabama 23

LSU v. Alabama. No. 1 v. No. 2. Two of the best three defenses in the country. A showdown to determine one of the participants in this year’s BCS Title Game.

Oklahoma will have something to say about the eventual outcome.

The Sooners may appear to be a long shot to make it that far; they’ll need a lot of upsets of teams currently undefeated. They can take out Oklahoma State themselves, but they’ll need someone else to take out Stanford, and maybe Boise State and the LSU-Bama loser too. Someone needs to explain to me how the Sooners could be favored on the road against a higher-ranked team (that’s all you need to know about how big a joke the polls are), but while Kansas State was wildly overrated, they were still undefeated, and the way the Sooners crushed them sends them shooting ahead of even LSU in the C Ratings.

Also, bad news for Big East fans: Rutgers has fallen off the Top 25, so your alleged BCS conference now has zero representatives. Better hope those invites work out…

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC BCS Title
8-0 LW: A Rat: .907 B Rating: 49.180 C Rating: 42.477 AP: 2 BCS: 2
The Tide and their top-ranked defense is rested and ready for the big showdown in Tuscaloosa.
2 Oklahoma B12 2010 TCU
7-1 LW: A Rat: .671 B Rating: 47.537 C Rating: 40.844 AP: 7 BCS: 6
A tight loss to Texas Tech doesn’t outweigh three wins over Top 25 teams in the C Ratings.
3 LSU SEC ’06 Boise St.
8-0 LW: A Rat: .852 B Rating: 45.883 C Rating: 40.437 AP: 1 BCS: 1
Not as many wins over good teams hurt the Tigers’ resume, but don’t be too alarmed. Unless Oklahoma blows A&M out of the water, a win over Bama should put you back in the top two.
4 Boise State MWC BCS Title
7-0 LW: A Rat: .796 B Rating: 39.822 C Rating: 34.522 AP: 5 BCS: 5
Boise comes back from the bye for a tune-up against UNLV ahead of a showdown with TCU.
5 Stanford P12 BCS Title
8-0 LW: A Rat: .822 B Rating: 38.563 C Rating: 32.039 AP: 4 BCS: 4
Despite beating USC, Stanford slips even behind idle Boise. Gotta be concerned by a win by only eight, and losses by teams they’ve played. The Oregon schools come to town next.
6 Oklahoma State B12 BCS Title
8-0 LW: A Rat: .720 B Rating: 36.770 C Rating: 31.516 AP: 3 BCS: 3
Oklahoma State is now part of a group of teams well ahead of the pack. But freshly-lost Kansas State will not be easy to put away.
7 Oregon P12 ’09 Boise St.
7-1 LW: A Rat: .656 B Rating: 22.251 C Rating: 18.384 AP: 6 BCS: 8
Another win, another step up. But Washington isn’t Washington State, and Stanford will be far better than even that.
8 Wisconsin B10 Big 10 Title
6-2 LW: A Rat: .591 B Rating: 20.122 C Rating: 15.298 AP: 19 BCS: 20
Uh-oh, could Wisconsin’s season be starting to fall apart? But Ohio State has sneakily recovered from their slow start, and it’s another close loss. Hopefully Purdue will be just what the doctor ordered.
9 Houston USA BCS Bowl
8-0 LW: A Rat: .740 B Rating: 19.688 C Rating: 14.392 AP: 14 BCS: 13
The show Case Keenum put on against Rice caused the whole country to take notice. Could another one be coming against lowly UAB?
10 Michigan B10 BCS Title
7-1 LW: #12 A Rat: .657 B Rating: 16.883 C Rating: 13.621 AP: 13 BCS: 15
Big blowout over the Boilermakers. Now come two three-loss teams before a must-win against Nebraska.
11 Clemson ACC ACC Title
8-1 LW: A Rat: .587 B Rating: 14.170 C Rating: 11.269 AP: 11 BCS: 11
The Tigers got a rude awakening against G-Tech, and now they suddenly face a must-win against Wake Forest if they want to win the Atlantic.
12 Nebraska B10 Big 10 Title
7-1 LW: #21 A Rat: .608 B Rating: 10.690 C Rating: 8.213 AP: 9 BCS: 10
Did you know Nebraska stomped a pretty decent Michigan State team this weekend? The polls did, and so did the C Ratings.
13 South Carolina SEC SEC Title
7-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .606 B Rating: 10.847 C Rating: 8.805 AP: 10 BCS: 9
The SEC undercard bout isn’t – neither team is Top 10 material, especially Arkansas – but it is a tough challenge for the Gamecocks to keep pace with Georgia in the East.
14 Penn State B10 Big 10 Title
8-1 LW: A Rat: .607 B Rating: 8.990 C Rating: 6.976 AP: 16 BCS: 16
It wasn’t pretty, but the Lions got it done for JoePa, and they’re now clear by two in the Woody Hayes division. But their last three opponents won’t be easy, starting with Nebraska after the bye.
15 Virginia Tech ACC ACC Title
8-1 LW: #15 A Rat: .602 B Rating: 9.395 C Rating: 6.940 AP: 12 BCS: 12
The Hokies shouldn’t celebrate Clemson’s misfortune too long. The team that beat them is next, and they want a trip to the conference title game.
16 Southern Miss USA C-USA Title
7-1 LW: #16 A Rat: .622 B Rating: 10.288 C Rating: 6.621 Coaches: 24 BCS: 25
Now the BCS is taking note of the Golden Eagles. But unless they beat East Carolina, they may not even be going to the conference title game.
17 Texas A&M B12 Big 12 Title
5-3 LW: A Rat: .409 B Rating: 8.430 C Rating: 6.120 — —
Heartbreaking loss to Missouri. What’s worse? Now comes a visit to Norman.
18 Toledo MAC MAC Title
5-3 LW: #17 A Rat: .384 B Rating: 7.354 C Rating: 5.506 — —
I wouldn’t guaranteee that the Rockets fall off the rankings next week after a three-point loss to the perennial “Other Positive B Points” team, especially the way everyone took notice of the MAC afterwards.
19 Notre Dame   Bowl Elgblty
5-3 LW: #20 A Rat: .391 B Rating: 6.193 C Rating: 4.668 — —
Blowout win over Navy reminds us all why the Domers are on the Top 25, and now they’re a win against a tough Wake Forest team away from becoming bowl-eligible.
20 Arizona State P12 Pac-12 Title
5-2 LW: #19 A Rat: .488 B Rating: 4.907 C Rating: 2.880 AP: 20 BCS: 19
Okay, so Colorado is so godawful the Sun Devils actually slip after beating them. But a win over UCLA will all but lock up a trip to the inaugural conference title game.
21 Arkansas SEC SEC Title
6-1 LW: #25 A Rat: .571 B Rating: 5.663 C Rating: 2.314 AP: 8 BCS: 7
Other teams’ misfortune causes the Razorbacks to move up despite a tight win over a team struggling to become bowl eligible. Will Steve Spurrier’s team expose them, or will they prove the polls right?
22 Florida State ACC ACC Title
5-3 LW: A Rat: .443 B Rating: 3.958 C Rating: 2.274 — —
You probably forgot about the Seminoles after they followed a loss to mighty Oklahoma with consecutive 35-30 losses to their rivals for the division crown, but they’ve bounced back and a 34-0 drubbing of NC State puts them back on the Top 25.
23 Georgia SEC SEC Title
6-2 LW: A Rat: .485 B Rating: 2.695 C Rating: 2.203 AP: 18 BCS: 18
It wasn’t pretty, but it was a win against their rivals. They shouldn’t have too much trouble with New Mexico State, which is good because they have two very good teams still to come.
24 USC P12 Probation
6-2 LW: #22 A Rat: .462 B Rating: 3.458 C Rating: 2.170 AP: 21 SBNBlog: 22
USC fought valiantly against mighty Stanford and showed why they deserved all the love they got after the Notre Dame win. After crushing Colorado, they’ll get a challenge when Washington comes to the Coliseum.
25 TCU MWC MWC Title
6-2 LW: #27 A Rat: .538 B Rating: 6.781 C Rating: 1.906 — —
An important win over BYU gives the Horned Frogs just enough to move back into the Top 25, with just a trip to Wyoming ahead of the big showdown with Boise State.


26 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Princeton-Yale Title: #26 Georgia Tech (7-2), .482, 3.346, .752

Off Top 25: #27 Rutgers (was #23), #35 Kansas State (was #18)

Watch List: #26 Georgia Tech, #27 Rutgers, Miami (FL)

#27 TCU, Florida State, Michigan State, Syracuse*, Temple, Iowa, Kansas State, Ohio

Other Positive B Ratings: West Virginia*, #37 Iowa, #40 Ohio (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: Michigan State, #35 Kansas State, #41 Temple, #56 Syracuse

Bottom 10: #111 Indiana, #112 UNLV, #113 Kansas, #114 Akron, #115 Buffalo, #116 Florida Atlantic, #117 Tulane, #118 UAB, #119 Memphis, #120 New Mexico

Best game of week: LSU @ Alabama, 5pm PT, CBS

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 8

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-4. Two of the Eagles’ three wins came in the last two weeks, suggesting the Eagles – now tied for second in the NFC East – may be starting to look like the Dream Team we thought they were. This game has a chance to be for the division lead.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Redskins (FOX) and Chargers-Bears (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bucs-Packers is good but lopsided, while Titans-Falcons is a battle of 4-3 teams that probably can’t be trusted to pop a rating. Bengals-Ravens is interesting, as it’s a battle of 5-2 teams, and while the Bengals are a bunch of no-names they could very easily not only make the playoffs, but make noise in it.
  • Analysis: If the Eagles beat the Bears Monday night the tentative is going to be kept. In fact, I’d argue the only way for the tentative to lose its spot is for both teams involved to lose and the Bengals and Ravens to win. Then they’d not only be 6-2 but tied for the division lead, while Eagles-Giants would be 5-3 v. 3-5. But would even that overcome two big markets vs. two small markets and the Bengals’ collection of no-names?
  • Final prediction: Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (no change).

Week 12 (November 17):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
  • Prospects: 6-2 v. 4-3. Remember when the Chiefs were 0-3 and widely considered the worst team in the league? Suddenly this game looks very good to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Eagles (CBS) and Bears-Raiders (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games (Packers-Lions is an especially bad loss). Bills-Jets and Bucs-Titans are the only good options, with Bengals-Browns a dark horse; of those, Bills-Jets is the best game and still isn’t as good as the tentative. After the protections, NBC isn’t left with very attractive matchups in terms of drawing power.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ New England
  • Prospects: It’s the Colts and the Patriots, the NFL’s biggest current rivalry! …What’s that? Peyton Manning’s injured and the Colts are 0-8 and got blown out 62-0 their last time on Sunday night (to a team that lost to the winless Rams the following week!), causing football to lose to another sport in the ratings for the first time in forever? Yeeeeah, this is getting flexed out unless Manning comes back before then, and even then this would have to be the very game he comes back, which probably won’t be known two weeks in advance.
  • Protected games: Jets-Redskins (CBS) and Packers-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Saints had the early lead, but record-wise at least, the race is tighter than you think; Bengals-Steelers is a battle of two-loss teams, and Titans-Bills differs only in the byes. Falcons-Texans and Chiefs-Bears are also options, and Ravens-Browns is a dark horse.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and the division lead potentially on the line. A flex isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but one or both teams would have to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bills-Chargers, Raiders-Packers, Saints-Titans, Texans-Bengals, Chiefs-Jets. Many of these would be good enough to get the flex in a sufficiently weak week, but would Giants-Cowboys qualify?

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: Not NBC’s biggest-name late-season matchup, but one of the better ones record-wise. Good chance to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Raiders and Packers-Chiefs and that’s it. Yeah, I’d say Ravens-Chargers is keeping its spot.

Week 17 (January 1):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

NFL Schedule: Week 8

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Here’s the schedule, finally, mere hours before the games begin. A lot fewer ties in the RCS rankings this week. For the record, I updated the lineal title page for the Packers’ bye a little over 24 hours before this post.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#T3(5-2) 30½-17 #30(0-6) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan, Jennifer Hale 91 138 Can the Saints light up the scoreboard against a winless team two weeks in a row?
(0-6) 16-26 (4-2) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf CMP 136 86 Dysfunctional Dolphins just try to survive their second trip to the New Met.
#25(2-5) 15½-25 (4-3) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 112 92 Can the Jaguars maintain the momentum of the Ravens upset against the division leaders?
(1-5) 15¼-27¾ (4-2) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Sam Rosen, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin WW1 137 93 The Ravens need to recover from the Monday night debacle; will the floundering Cards help?
#27(1-6) 21½-25 #23(2-5) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 113 94 Two teams looking to pick up their disappointing seasons.
(0-7) 17½-26 #22(3-3) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots USA 117 85 Manning-less Colts could be just what the doctor ordered after that devastating loss to Houston.
(5-2) 22¼-19¼ #26(2-4) Sun 4:05 PM 711 Dick Stockton, John Lynch, Jamie Maggio 135 92 Will the Lions defense give Tim Tebow a rude awakening?
#21(3-3) 20¼-25¼ (4-2) Sun 4:05 PM 710 Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver CMP 134 93 The Redskins try not to lose their season in Toronto.
#14(4-2) 19½-18 (2-4) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker USA 112 94 The Bengals are quietly impressive. But how much of it is playing teams like the Hawks?
(5-1) 27½-25 (5-2) Sun 4:15 PM 712 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms WW1 91 86 Showdown between possibly the two best teams in the AFC – now and the past few years.
(3-3) 14¾-23¾ #T3(5-1) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 113 85 Are the Niners really this good? Well, they should have no trouble with the Browns.
#16(3-3) 22¾-25¾ #19(2-4) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Divisional showdown between two teams fighting for playoff relevancy.
(4-2) 23½-20½ #20(3-3) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 If the Chiefs want to get back on track, they’d better get past the class of the division.

Bye:

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 8

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I take back what I said about all full rankings coming in PDF form from now on. My laptop is incredibly slow at calculating the rankings. Even the super-slow school computers are faster. If I have to calculate the rankings at home, I’ll use the computer I’ve used from the start that only creates RTFs (unless I can get a bunch of programs closed, but I’m skeptical that’ll help).

After last weekend’s upsets, the national championship picture is starting to clear up. Barring upsets, there will be a national semifinal next week in primetime. Their opponent? Stanford, then either Boise State or a one-loss team. Oklahoma State and our other lineal title holders may have something to say about that, but most people expect the Big 12 teams and Oregon to lose (Kansas State potentially this weekend) and the ACC and Big East to be disrespected.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC BCS Title
8-0 LW: A Rat: .907 B Rating: 52.786 C Rating: 46.078 AP: 2 BCS: 2
Alabama showed the teams below them who’s boss with a huge blowout of Tennessee. Now they get a week to prepare for the showdown with LSU.
2 LSU SEC ’06 Boise St.
8-0 LW: A Rat: .852 B Rating: 46.800 C Rating: 41.451 AP: 1 BCS: 1
Huge win over an overrated Auburn team, but they will need the week off before the trip to Tuscaloosa.
3 Stanford P12 BCS Title
7-0 LW: A Rat: .868 B Rating: 40.987 C Rating: 34.271 AP: 4 BCS: 6
“Won’t go away easily” my ass! Blowout over the Huskies plus big upsets means the Cardinal are now in national championship position.
4 Boise State MWC BCS Title
7-0 LW: A Rat: .796 B Rating: 38.385 C Rating: 33.063 AP: 5 BCS: 4
Not the most impressive performance against Air Force. They’ll want to get their practice licks in against UNLV, because the TCU game is huge.
5 Oklahoma B12 BCS Title
6-1 LW: A Rat: .646 B Rating: 28.949 C Rating: 24.346 AP: 11 BCS: 9
Losing to mediocre Texas Tech at home certainly looks bad, but I always say never to overreact to a single loss, especially by a field goal. You thought they were that good, they can’t be that bad now.
6 Oklahoma State B12 BCS Title
7-0 LW: A Rat: .709 B Rating: 27.169 C Rating: 23.106 AP: 3 BCS: 3
I don’t think anyone really thinks Oklahoma State is really this good. But they do keep impressing with a huge win over a decent Missouri team.
7 Wisconsin B10 BCS Title
6-1 LW: A Rat: .718 B Rating: 25.048 C Rating: 20.074 AP: 12 BCS: 15
See what I said about Oklahoma, with the added element that Michigan State is substantially better than Texas Tech. Now comes a not-as-big-as-it-could-be clash with Ohio State.
8 Oregon P12 ’09 Boise St.
6-1 LW: A Rat: .652 B Rating: 20.947 C Rating: 17.981 AP: 7 BCS: 7
Impressive blowout over Colorado. But now they get progressively better opponents in the Washington schools.
9 Clemson ACC Prncton/Yale
8-0 LW: A Rat: .708 B Rating: 19.883 C Rating: 16.197 AP: 6 BCS: 5
Fairly tight game against an only-decent North Carolina team. But G-Tech is the best opponent they’ve faced so far.
10 Houston USA BCS Bowl
7-0 LW: #15 A Rat: .736 B Rating: 14.737 C Rating: 10.372 AP: 18 BCS: 17
Marshall is pretty bad, but Houston put on a show, and combine that with losses by other teams and it’s another five-spot jump for the Cougars.
11 Texas A&M B12 Big 12 Title
5-2 LW: A Rat: .483 B Rating: 12.896 C Rating: 10.275 AP: 16 BCS: 16
Big win over Iowa State, but Missouri will be substantially tougher.
12 Michigan B10 BCS Title
6-1 LW: A Rat: .637 B Rating: 12.586 C Rating: 9.728 AP: 17 BCS: 18
Drop for idle hands made worse by opponents not doing their best. Now Purdue serves as a warm-up for Iowa.
13 Penn State B10 Big 10 Title
7-1 LW: #17 A Rat: .602 B Rating: 9.118 C Rating: 7.420 AP: 21 BCS: 19
Not sure why a modest ten-point win over mediocre Northwestern results in such a big jump in the C Ratings and AP Poll – other teams losing don’t explain it all. But now to justify it against Illinois.
14 South Carolina SEC SEC Title
6-1 LW: #20 A Rat: .569 B Rating: 9.241 C Rating: 6.870 AP: 14 BCS: 13
Despite idle hands, big wins by their opponents (Vandy over Army, Kentucky over a I-AA team that doesn’t matter for A Rating purposes) send them rocketing up the ratings. Now to justify it against Tennessee.
15 Virginia Tech ACC Big 12 Title
7-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .597 B Rating: 9.078 C Rating: 6.785 AP: 15 BCS: 12
Followed the big win over Wake Forest with a blowout over BC. Now a trip to Duke ahead of an important showdown with Georgia Tech.
16 Southern Miss USA C-USA Title
6-1 LW: #27 A Rat: .600 B Rating: 8.372 C Rating: 5.403 Coaches: 25 —
Is C-USA better than you think? A blowout win over SMU have people noticing the Golden Eagles have only a single tight loss with some pretty big wins. How big could the title game be?
17 Toledo MAC MAC Title
5-3 LW: #18 A Rat: .384 B Rating: 6.961 C Rating: 5.318 — —
Big win over Miami (OH). Will a Tuesday night nationally televised win over Northern Illinois cause the pollsters to take notice?
18 Kansas State B12 2010 TCU
7-0 LW: #23 A Rat: .684 B Rating: 7.929 C Rating: 5.286 AP: 10 BCS: 8
Huge win over their rivals in their first game in the Top 25. But who wants to bet the Sooners will own them?
19 Arizona State P12 Pac-12 Title
5-2 LW: #21 A Rat: .444 B Rating: 4.848 C Rating: 4.081 AP: 23 BCS: 21
Teams losing (and opponents winning) mean the Sun Devils move up despite idle hands, and with woeful Colorado coming to the desert, they could move up substantially.
20 Notre Dame   Bowl Elgblty
4-3 LW: #12 A Rat: .337 B Rating: 5.120 C Rating: 4.003 — —
We were already rating the Golden Domers far higher than most people, and after being blown out by USC this looks all the more dubious. But when they look good they look very good, and they’ll have a chance to look good against Navy.
21 Nebraska B10 Big 10 Title
6-1 LW: A Rat: .566 B Rating: 5.801 C Rating: 3.590 AP: 13 BCS: 14
Nebraska slips substantially despite winning! But a blowout of a godawful Minnesota team doesn’t outweigh the first-loss effect on Wisconsin.
22 USC P12 Probation
6-1 LW: #35 A Rat: .542 B Rating: 4.918 C Rating: 3.099 AP: 20 SBNBlog: 21
If the Trojans are this good with nothing to play for and most of the upperclassmen having departed when the sanctions came down, imagine how good they’ll be next year! BCS or bust for the Trojans next year! Could they upset Stanford?
23 Rutgers BST Big East Title
5-2 LW: #22 A Rat: .452 B Rating: 3.290 C Rating: 2.325 — —
The Knights can’t slip too much losing by only two. If they beat a West Virginia team still ranked in the polls, it’ll more than make up for it.
24 Georgia SEC SEC Title
5-2 LW: #26 A Rat: .469 B Rating: 2.074 C Rating: 1.907 AP: 22 BCS: 22
The Bulldogs didn’t play last week, but other teams losing put them in the top 25, just in time for the World’s Largest Cocktail Party – which they have the edge in for once.
25 Arkansas SEC SEC Title
6-1 LW: #25 A Rat: .572 B Rating: 4.434 C Rating: 1.794 AP: 8 BCS: 10
Nice modest win over Ole Miss, better than some other teams did. Beat Vanderbilt to keep pace in the West.


29 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #27 TCU (was ), #30 Georgia Tech (was #19), West Virginia (was #16)

Watch List: #26 Miami (FL), #27 TCU, Florida State, Michigan State, #30 Georgia Tech, Syracuse*

Other Positive B Ratings: #35 Temple, #37 Iowa, #42 Ohio (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: West Virginia, #33 Washington, #41 Missouri, #44 Utah State, #45 Texas, #57 Northern Illinois

Bottom 10: #111 Colorado, #112 Idaho, #113 Buffalo, #114 UNLV, #115 Akron, #116 UAB, #117 Florida Atlantic, #118 Tulane, #119 Memphis, #120 New Mexico

Best game of week: Oklahoma @ Kansas State, 12:30pm PT, ESPN

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 7

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Tentative game: New England @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 5-1 v. 4-3; this is becoming one of the hottest rivalries in the AFC, but who are the Jets? Still, this is now a battle of two teams with winning records, rare for tentatives this year.
  • Protected games according to the506: Saints-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Giants-49ers (4-2 v. 5-1), Lions-Bears (5-2 v. 4-3), Texans-Bucs (4-3 v. 4-3), Steelers-Bengals (5-2 v. 4-2), Bills-Cowboys (4-2 v. 3-3).
  • Analysis: Giants-Niners is the best game, but the Niners aren’t a name team, which could kill their ability to overcome the tentative game bias – 5-2 v. 6-1 is hard to pass up, but can it overcome a 5-2 v. 4-3 tentative? Steelers-Bengals may have even more to overcome, and Lions-Bears, while an attractive NFC North matchup, can’t do better than 6-2 v. 4-3, a half-game better than the worst Pats-Jets can do.
  • Final prediction: New England Patriots @ New York Jets (no change).

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 2-4. If the not-so-Dream Team continues to be a nightmare, this has a pretty good chance to be flexed out, despite the NFC East factor.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Redskins (FOX) and Chargers-Bears (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bucs-Packers is good but lopsided, Bengals-Ravens features a team people don’t trust to be as good as 4-2, and Titans-Falcons has the worst of both worlds. Right now, the tentative is likely to stay put.

Week 12 (November 17):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-3. Time will tell if the Chiefs are about to rally from their disastrous start. It might not take much for this game to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Eagles (CBS) and Bears-Raiders (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games (Packers-Lions is an especially bad loss). Bills-Jets and Bucs-Titans are the only good options, with Bengals-Browns a dark horse and Broncos-Chargers possible based on Tim Tebow’s performance. After the protections, NBC isn’t left with very attractive matchups in terms of drawing power.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ New England
  • Prospects: It’s the Colts and the Patriots, the NFL’s biggest current rivalry! …What’s that? Peyton Manning’s injured and the Colts are 0-7 and got blown out 62-0 their last time on Sunday night, causing football to lose to another sport in the ratings for the first time in forever? Yeeeeah, this is getting flexed out unless Manning comes back before then, and even then this would have to be the very game he comes back, which probably won’t be known two weeks in advance.
  • Protected games: Jets-Redskins (CBS) and Packers-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Saints has the early lead; Bengals-Steelers, Falcons-Texans, and Chiefs-Bears are also options, and Ravens-Browns and Titans-Bills are dark horses.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and the division lead potentially on the line. A flex isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but one or both teams would have to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bills-Chargers, Raiders-Packers, Saints-Titans, Texans-Bengals. Chiefs-Jets is a dark horse, and Bears-Broncos could become an interloper if Tim Tebow does well.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: Not NBC’s biggest-name late-season matchup, but possibly the best record-wise, a battle of 4-2 teams when no other tentative has more than one team better than 4-3. Good chance to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Raiders. That’s it. Yeah, Packers-Chiefs is a dark horse, but I’d say Ravens-Chargers is keeping its spot.

Week 17 (January 1):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

NFL Schedule: Week 7

by

Another parade of ties in RCS’ consensus power rankings, and the tie at in particular has me thinking they should go to an odd number of component rankings somehow to make ties harder. I knew to do so with my own similar concept. Meanwhile, I’m astounded at the Monday night over-under, which yields the lowest MXS I’ve recorded in the short time I’ve been doing this, as well as the first favorite’s MXS below 20.

Also, I’ve been thinking about the idea of local all-sports blogs for each sports city, and it’s taking all my effort to keep from starting it up myself by the end of the month…

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
(4-1) 23-21 #17(3-3) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms USA 112 93 Showdown between two heavyweights who can’t stand each other… and that’s the coaches!
#22(2-3) 19-22 (2-3) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora 113 85 Two teams trying to show that they’re for real, or at least not horrible.
#18(3-3) 22-25½ (5-1) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Dick Stockton, John Lynch WW1 134 86 Lions trying to bounce back from their first loss against a team trying to show they’re still as good as last year.
#T15(3-3) 22¼-21¼ #T11(4-2) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa CMP 135 106 One of the better games London has been exposed to… which isn’t saying much.
#T26(1-4) 20½-21½ #30(0-5) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 91 136 Who cares that both teams suck? It’s the start of the Tebow era!
#19(3-2) 20¼-22¾ #23(1-5) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 117 94 The Redskins feel people are disrespecting their 3-2 start, but Newton and the Panthers will not make it easy.
(3-3) 20¾-23¾ #T15(3-2) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 138 92 The Texans have been slipping in recent weeks, and the surprising Titans can take control of the division.
(4-2) 23½-19½ #T26(1-4) Sun 4:05 PM 711 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf USA 85 139 The Cardinals come back from their bye in time to run into the Steelers buzzsaw.
#25(2-3) 18-24 (4-2) Sun 4:05 PM 712 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts CMP 137 91 Hey, the Chiefs are on a winning streak! Can they continue it against the red-hot Raiders?
(6-0) 27¾-18¾ (1-5) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver WW1 92 86 The Christian Ponder era is underway… good luck!
(0-5) 15¾-28¼ #20(2-3) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Sam Rosen, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 94 93 With the Rams considered to be worse than the other winless teams, chances are we see Good Romo this week.
(0-6) 17-31 (4-2) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Another Colts regret for NBC, especially up against the World Series.
#T2(4-1) 18½-10½ (1-5) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 Are the Ravens the quietest possibly-second-best team in the league ever?

Bye: