Sports

Predictions for the National Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2012

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The National Baseball Hall of Fame’s selections are performed by members of the Baseball Writer’s Association of America who have been members for at least 10 years.

A six-person Screening Committee has selected a list of players that have been eligible for less than 15 years to be included on the ballot. A player must have played for 10 years and spent 5 years out of baseball before they can be considered for induction into the Hall of Fame. Players that last played in the 2006 season will be eligible for induction in 2012.

The BBWAA members will submit their ballots before December 31, and any player named on 75% of the ballots will be selected for induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. No more than ten players may be named on any ballot.

My prediction for the National Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2012 is:

Barry Larkin, Reds

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 13

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 12 (November 27):

  • Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Selected game: Detroit @ New Orleans.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Selected game: NY Giants @ Dallas.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Selected game: Baltimore @ San Diego. This one was announced substantially later than normal, indeed later than the 12-day window the rules allow, thanks to CBS actually fighting to keep Pats-Broncos, with Robert Kraft (who’s a landlord for a CBS-owned restaurant) taking their side. Why CBS’s opinions should have any relevance whatsoever when the NFL is supposed to make the decisions to support NBC’s package is beyond me. This is why we have the protection system; CBS doesn’t get to decide after Week 13 “oh, we’d like to keep this game too.” While there are extenuating circumstances here (the NFL moved a normally-CBS Broncos-Vikings game to Fox this past week, and all involved networks are in the midst of contract renegotiations), this may presage a tweak of the flex schedule rules in the next contract. I fully expected the game to keep its spot anyway once the Chargers won, because it meant the Chargers weren’t so godawful as to overrule the tentative game bias (that’s why Lions-Raiders didn’t get flexed in either), so it also shows how desperate for Tebow NBC is. Everyone looks bad all the way around.

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (5-7)
WEST
47-5		 59-3
7-5
NORTH
39-3		 67-5
9-3
EAST
29-3		 7-5
7-5 7-5
SOUTH
19-3		 7-5
7-5
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (5-7)
EAST
47-5		 57-5
6-6
SOUTH
39-3		 67-5
7-5
WEST
210-2		 7-5
CLINCHED 6-6
NORTH
112-0
CLINCHED
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Titans-Texans, Lions-Packers, Ravens-Bengals. The AFC West, AFC East, and NFC South just don’t pair up right.

NFL Schedule: Week 14

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Thanks to Tebow-Kraftgate, the Flex Schedule Watch is coming sometime Thursday. This week isn’t a particularly attractive slate of games either (just look at all the huge point spreads), and I’m rushing to get something important done. And that’s on top of the bad taste the way the college football season ended left in my mouth. Bad vibes all the way around.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
(4-8) 12½-26½ (9-3) Thu 8:20 PM Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan WW1 92 93 Not a good sign when your struggling team goes Ravens-Steelers back-to-back.
#26(4-8) 19¼-18¼ #30(3-9) Sun 1:00 PM 712 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 136 117 Can you believe the Bucs were playoff contenders not that long ago?
(5-7) 13¾-22¾ (7-5) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts CMP 137 93 Can Kyle Orton repeat his Soldier Field magic at the Met?
(9-3) 17½-20½ #15(7-5) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon USA 86 104 The Texans seem to be doing okay with T.J. Yates. Will that continue against the Bengals?
(9-3) 28-20 #27(4-8) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 91 134 Will getting scared by the worst team in the league cause the Patriots to play with fire against the Skins?
#T9(7-5) 25¼-22¾ #25(4-8) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora 112 125 Hey, Cam Newton has a winning streak! But can it continue against a potential playoff team?
#23(4-8) 21-24 #18(4-8) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 132 113 Two teams going in very opposite directions.
(9-3) 26-22½ #14(7-5) Sun 1:00 PM 713 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver WW1 94 128 The Titans are scratching and clawing for a playoff spot… good luck getting it against the Saints.
(0-12) 12½-28½ (9-3) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 106 85 The Colts showed signs of life against the Patriots, but the Ravens defense won’t be any easier.
(2-10) 20¾-28¾ #12(7-5) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 138 92 Maybe the Vikings won’t solve the Lions’ penalty problem, but they will make it matter less.
#16(7-5) 16¼-19¾ (7-5) Sun 4:05 PM 715 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa CMP 135 93 Tebowmania is reaching a fever pitch, but will it continue against a hungry Bears defense?
(10-2) 21¾-17¾ #21(5-7) Sun 4:05 PM 714 Dick Stockton, John Lynch USA 92 139 The Cardinals might be a long shot for the playoffs, but it’ll be difficult getting past the Niners.
#22(5-7) 20¼-27¼ #20(5-7) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots WW1 91 85 The Chargers are going on their late-season charge, while the Bills’ season is entering a tailspin.
(7-5) 20½-31½ (12-0) Sun 4:15 PM 705 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms 94 86 Good luck defending your division lead against the Tebow onslaught playing the Packers.
#17(6-6) 22¾-26¼ #T9(7-5) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 First of two for NFC East supremacy.
(2-10) 17½-22 #19(5-7) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 Rematch of last year’s NFC West title game with substantially less importance this time around.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 15 Picks

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Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: At one point this game was the only one of NBC’s tentatives involving two teams above .500. Might the Chargers’ mid-season swoon be putting this one in flex jeopardy? There aren’t many alternatives, but…
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Lions (7-5)-Raiders (7-5), Patriots (9-3)-Broncos (7-5).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: The Chargers will be desperately defending the tentative tonight.
  • Analysis: Given the tentative game bias I think this game is still fairly safe if the Chargers are 5-7, but if they lose again to fall to 4-8? Why would NBC and the NFL keep a lopsided 9-3 v. 4-8 clash with two games each involving two teams at at least 7-5? As I said last week, with the Broncos winning again there’s no reason not to go with the Tom Brady-Tim Tebow clash, and the Lions and Raiders losing only helps in that regard. If you’d told me two months ago that Ravens-Chargers being flexed out for Patriots-Broncos was a very real possibility, I’d have said you were crazy.
  • Final prediction: Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers (if the Chargers win); New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (if the Chargers lose).

Who SHOULD Be Going to Which Bowls?

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The bowls if selections were based on my C Ratings, out soon. If two teams are separated by an “or”, then I’m weighing whether teams would select based strictly on the standings, or if non-BCS teams have to be conference champions. An asterisk denotes teams filling for conferences and alternate conferences unable to fill all tie-ins. Not going to bowls despite being bowl-eligible: Purdue and Ball State.

  • Gildan New Mexico Bowl: MWC (Wyoming or Air Force) v. Pac-12 (UCLA or *Western Kentucky)
  • Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: MAC (Ohio) v. WAC (Utah State)
  • R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: C-USA (*Illinois or Marshall) v. Sun Belt (Arkansas State)
  • Beef’O’Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl: Big East (Pittsburgh) v. C-USA (Marshall or SMU)
  • San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: MWC (San Diego State or Boise State) v. WAC (Nevada)
  • MAACO Bowl Las Vegas: MWC (TCU) v. Pac-12 (California or Washington)
  • Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: C-USA ? (Tulsa or Southern Miss) v. Hawaii/WAC (Louisiana Tech)
  • AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl (Shreveport): ACC (Virginia) v. MWC (Air Force or San Diego State)
  • Little Caesar’s Bowl (Detroit): Big 10 /Sun Belt (Northwestern or Illinois) v. MAC (Toledo)
  • Belk Bowl (Charlotte): ACC (Georgia Tech) v. Big East (Rutgers)
  • Military Bowl (Washington DC): ACC /MAC (Wake Forest) v. Navy/Big 12 (*Temple)
  • Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl (San Diego): Big 12 (Baylor) v. Pac-12 (Arizona State or Utah)
  • Champs Sports Bowl (Orlando): ACC (Florida State) v. Big East (Notre Dame)
  • Valero Alamo Bowl (San Antonio): Big 12 (Missouri) v. Pac-12 (Stanford or Arizona State)
  • Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl (Dallas): C-USA (SMU or Tulsa) v. BYU
  • New Era Pinstripe Bowl (New York): Big 12 (Iowa State) v. Big East (Cincinnati)
  • Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: ACC (NC State) v. SEC /8 (Auburn)
  • Insight Bowl (Tempe): Big 12 (Kansas State) v. Big 10 (Penn State or Iowa)
  • Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas (Houston): Big 12 (Texas) v. Big 10 (Iowa or Ohio State)
  • Hyundai Sun Bowl (El Paso): ACC (North Carolina; would be Miami (FL)) v. Pac-12 (Utah or California)
  • AutoZone Liberty Bowl (Memphis): C-USA (Southern Miss or Houston) v. SEC /8 (Mississippi State)
  • Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (San Francisco): Pac-12 /ACC (Washington or UCLA) v. Army/ACC (*Western Michigan)
  • Chick-fil-A Bowl (Atlanta): ACC (Virginia Tech) v. SEC (Vanderbilt)
  • TicketCity Bowl (Dallas): Big 10 /Big 12 (Ohio State or Northwestern) v. C-USA /Big 12 (*Western Kentucky or *Wyoming)
  • Outback Bowl (Tampa): Big 10 (Nebraska or Michigan State) v. SEC -4 (East) (Georgia)
  • Capitol One Bowl (Orlando): Big 10 (Michigan or Nebraska) v. SEC (South Carolina)
  • TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl (Jacksonville): Big 10 (Michigan State or Penn State) v. SEC (Florida)
  • Rose Bowl Game pres. by Vizio (Pasadena, CA): Big 10 (Wisconsin) v. Pac-12 (Oregon)
  • Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, AZ): Big 12 (Oklahoma) v. BCS (Boise State or Stanford)
  • Allstate Sugar Bowl (New Orleans): SEC (Alabama) v. BCS (Houston or Michigan)
  • Discover Orange Bowl (Miami): ACC (Clemson) v. BCS/Big East ? (West Virginia)
  • AT&T Cotton Bowl (Cowboys Stadium): Big 12 (Texas A&M) v. SEC -4 (West) (Arkansas)
  • BBVA Compass Bowl (Birmingham): Big East (Louisville) v. SEC /Sun Belt (Louisiana-Lafayette)
  • GoDaddy.com Bowl (Mobile): MAC (Northern Illinois) v. Sun Belt (Florida International)
  • BCS National Championship Game: BCS (LSU) v. BCS (Oklahoma State)

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 13

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How lame is this college football season? We have a team in negative B Points in the Top 25 for about the second or third time since I started keeping track. It’s possible no game this weekend will affect the national title game, meaning if Georgia wins the SEC Title Game, we’ll have two teams playing for the national championship and neither won their conference. It’s not a lack of one-loss alternatives; it’s just that no one trusts an Oklahoma State team that lost to Iowa State, a Stanford or Boise State team that won’t win their conference either, a Virginia Tech team that would win a conference no one trusts and doesn’t have the parity of years past, or a Houston team that hasn’t even won the respect of a BYU, Boise State, or TCU.

This week’s rankings are a bit later than I would have liked because I lost the USB drive containing the database I use to calculate the rankings last week.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 LSU SEC ’06 Boise St.
12-0 LW: A Rat: .831 B Rating: 62.549 C Rating: 54.630 AP: 1 BCS: 1
Can LSU avoid complete BCS embarassment in their opponent’s home state?
2 Alabama SEC BCS Title
11-1 LW: A Rat: .780 B Rating: 53.170 C Rating: 45.803 AP: 2 BCS: 2
Alabama pummeled their rivals right out of the polls. Now comes the wait to avenge their one loss.
3 Oklahoma State B12 BCS Title
10-1 LW: A Rat: .643 B Rating: 43.721 C Rating: 36.214 AP: 3 BCS: 3
The Cowboys have their best chance in years to beat Big Brother – and while a win sends them to the Fiesta, would they even go to the Cotton over K-State?
4 Boise State MWC Bowl Position
10-1 LW: A Rat: .687 B Rating: 43.078 C Rating: 36.125 AP: 9 BCS: 7
What good will a BCS ranking do for the Broncos? How about a trip to the Poinsettia Bowl.
5 Wisconsin B10 Big 10 Title
10-2 LW: A Rat: .668 B Rating: 43.762 C Rating: 35.344 AP: 15 BCS: 15
Wisconsin pummeled a good Penn State team into the ground, but the polls barely noticed. Will they notice if the Badgers avenge their loss to the Spartans?
6 Oklahoma B12 Big 12 Title
9-2 LW: A Rat: .605 B Rating: 41.816 C Rating: 34.593 AP: 13 BCS: 10
The Sooners demolished the team that beat the Cowboys and actually lost ground in the polls. The Big 12 may no longer have a title game, but Bedlam will serve the same purpose.
7 Houston USA BCS Bowl
12-0 LW: A Rat: .785 B Rating: 44.168 C Rating: 33.706 AP: 7 BCS: 6
C-USA has never sniffed the BCS. Now their title game pits two ranked teams with one playing for a BCS spot. How huge is that? It’s getting the ABC treatment.
8 Oregon P12 Pac-12 Title
10-2 LW: A Rat: .605 B Rating: 33.005 C Rating: 27.381 AP: 8 BCS: 9
Too many points allowed to a three-win team to avoid slipping.
9 Stanford P12 BCS Title
11-1 LW: A Rat: .686 B Rating: 27.597 C Rating: 21.118 AP: 4 BCS: 4
Big win to a ranked Notre Dame team – the last exclamation point on Andrew Luck’s Heisman campaign?
10 Michigan B10 Bowl Position
10-2 LW: A Rat: .590 B Rating: 25.000 C Rating: 20.688 AP: 17 BCS: 16
Just a little too close for comfort against a team that’s barely bowl-eligible, but all the Wolverines fans care about is finally getting the Buckeyes’ goat.
11 Virginia Tech ACC Prncton/Yale
11-1 LW: A Rat: .635 B Rating: 20.023 C Rating: 15.459 AP: 5 BCS: 5
Virginia isn’t terribly great, but they were poised to steal the division with a win and V-Tech blew them out of the water. Now they get a shot at revenge against the one team to beat them for a trip to the Orange Bowl.
12 Georgia SEC SEC Title
10-2 LW: #15 A Rat: .586 B Rating: 14.379 C Rating: 10.167 AP: 12 BCS: 14
Big win over a good G-Tech team makes it all the more plausible the Bulldogs could pull the Upset of the Century.
13 USC P12 ’09 Boise St.
10-2 LW: #17 A Rat: .559 B Rating: 13.898 C Rating: 9.650 AP: 9 SBNBlog: 13
Not even the conference commissioner likes this title game. Couldn’t we have Oregon and USC play and just send Oregon or Stanford to the Rose Bowl should USC win?
14 TCU MWC MWC Title
9-2 LW: #12 A Rat: .579 B Rating: 14.515 C Rating: 9.150 AP: 18 BCS: 18
The Horned Frogs slip for idle hands, but only UNLV stands in the way of going undefeated in-conference.
15 Arkansas SEC Bowl Position
10-2 LW: A Rat: .545 B Rating: 13.296 C Rating: 9.078 AP: 6 BCS: 8
The appraisals of the Razorbacks come back down to Earth after getting blown out by LSU, and not even the Capitol One Bowl looks like a sure thing the way Georgia’s been playing.
16 South Carolina SEC Bowl Position
10-2 LW: #18 A Rat: .560 B Rating: 11.993 C Rating: 8.982 AP: 14 BCS: 12
Big win over a Clemson team headed to the ACC title game sends the Cocks streaming up the rankings. Hey, you think they might meet again New Year’s Eve in the Georgia Dome?
17 Notre Dame   Bowl Position
8-4 LW: #14 A Rat: .402 B Rating: 8.998 C Rating: 6.181 — —
Had they not opened the season with a three-point loss to South Florida and a four-point loss to Michigan, the Golden Domers might be going to a BCS bowl.
18 Southern Miss USA C-USA Title
10-2 LW: #16 A Rat: .576 B Rating: 12.161 C Rating: 5.514 AP: 24 BCS: 24
Big win, but over one of the worst teams in the country. But it got Southern Miss back in the polls for the huge showdown with Houston.
19 Toledo MAC Bowl Position
8-4 LW: #21 A Rat: .412 B Rating: 7.918 C Rating: 4.481 — —
Big win over Ball State, but the Rockets have nothing to show for their only loss by more than five coming to Boise State thanks to one very ill-timed loss.
20 Florida State ACC Bowl Position
8-4 LW: #23 A Rat: .470 B Rating: 7.603 C Rating: 3.905 AP: 25 Coaches: 24
The Seminoles finally pick up a win over Florida and await their bowl fate.
21 Nebraska B10 Bowl Position
9-3 LW: A Rat: .475 B Rating: 4.843 C Rating: 2.998 AP: 20 BCS: 19
Big win over Iowa, but thirty-point losses to Michigan and Wisconsin mean it matters little. They just have to wait for their bowl fate.
22 Texas A&M B12 Bowl Position
6-6 LW: #20 A Rat: .310 B Rating: 5.221 C Rating: 2.173 — —
Two overtime losses, another three losses by a combined seven points, a total four losses against teams ranked in the polls at the time, and one fired coach.
23 Michigan State B10 Big 10 Title
10-2 LW: #33 A Rat: .562 B Rating: 3.094 C Rating: -.640 AP: 11 BCS: 13
Sparty’s rating has always been deflated by a combination of blowout losses, their best road win being either Ohio State or Iowa, bad nonconference opponents, and beating Minnesota by only 7, but they punched their title game ticket with a bang against Northwestern.
24 Penn State
(9-3, .456, -.343, -1.656)		 B10 Bowl Position
25 Louisiana Tech* WAC WAC Title
8-4 LW: A Rat: .415 B Rating: 1.617 C Rating: -1.704 — —
With Boise State gone, Louisiana Tech wrapped up their WAC championship campaign in dominating fashion over New Mexico State. Their four losses all came at the start around an OT win over Central Arkansas, but included both C-USA title game participants (and OT to Mississippi State).


2010 TCU Title: #45 Baylor (8-3), .411, -7.648, -9.197

Off Top 25: #27 Rutgers (was #22), Clemson (was #25)

Other Positive B Ratings: Northern Illinois, #33 Ohio, #34 Arkansas State (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: Penn State, #27 Rutgers, Utah State, Clemson, #35 Tulsa, #39 Arizona State, #40 Miami (FL), #42 Iowa, #44 Georgia Tech

Bottom 10: #111 Indiana, #112 Colorado, #113 UAB, #114 UNLV, #115 Kansas, #116 Florida Atlantic, #117 Memphis, #118 Tulane, #119 New Mexico, #120 Akron

Best game of week: Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State, 5pm PT, ABC

NFL Schedule: Week 13

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A day late, entirely my fault, though NFL.com’s schedule page STILL not having the Sunday Ticket channel for Colts-Pats didn’t help.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#18(4-7) 23¼-20¼ #22(4-7) Thu 8:20 PM Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan WW1 92 93 Betcha you didn’t realize these two teams were this close.
#14(6-5) 20½-17½ #25(4-7) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 91 106 The Jets hope to continue building their playoff case against an iffy Skins team.
(4-7) 15¼-22¼ (7-4) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots CMP 135 94 Welcome to Kansas City, Kyle Orton! Say hello to the Bears defense.
(7-4) 18-24½ (8-3) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms WW1 113 86 The two current AFC Wild Card teams face off not only for their spots, but divisional positioning as well.
(7-4) 20¼-17¾ (8-3) Sun 1:00 PM 712 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 134 92 The Texans try desperately to find a quarterback that can stay standing against a Falcons team fighting for the playoffs.
#15(6-5) 18-19½ #T29(2-9) Sun 1:00 PM 713 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 112 125 A rare network swap means it’ll be Fox (and Church of Tebow pastor Brennaman) bringing you Tebow’s latest heroics.
#27(3-8) 22-25 #20(4-7) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora 136 117 The Bucs’ season is going into a tailspin. Might gorging on the Panthers defense help?
(0-11) 14-34 (8-3) Sun 1:00 PM 710? Marv Albert, Rich Gannon USA 132 93 Hey, remember when this was the NFL’s greatest rivalry? Then Manning went down and NBC flexed out a month in advance.
#17(6-5) 21-22½ #19(5-6) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Spero Dedes, Steve Beuerlein 137 128 Two teams with distant playoff hopes slug it out… again.
(7-4) 20-23 #23(3-8) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 139 85 It took a last-minute FG for the ‘Boys to finish the Dolphins at home. Should the Raiders be scared heading into SunLife?
(8-3) 22¼-15¾ (4-7) Sun 4:05 PM 708 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 104 112 Hey fantasy nerds, Peyton Hillis is back! Just in time for the end of the fantasy regular season, against the Ravens D.
(11-0) 29½-23 #16(6-5) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver WW1 94 86 Could the Pack go 16-0? The Giants probably represent their biggest obstacle left.
(7-4) 25-20½ #26(4-7) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Dick Stockton, John Lynch CMP 93 128 Maybe that Sunday Night showdown won’t be for the division lead after all, with this big an opportunity for the Boys.
(2-9) 12¼-25¾ (9-2) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan USA 138 92 The woeful Rams should be just what the doctor ordered for a Niners team looking to bounce back from the Ravens loss.
#12(7-4) 22¼-31¼ (8-3) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 No Suh, but still a spotlight game between two teams fighting for the playoffs.
#21(4-7) 21-18 #T29(3-8) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 Because if it comes down to Mo Jo-Drew or Vincent Jackson for a fantasy playoff spot, you want everyone to watch.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 12

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 12 (November 27):

  • Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Selected game: Detroit @ New Orleans.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Selected game: NY Giants @ Dallas.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: At one point this game was the only one of NBC’s tentatives involving two teams above .500. Might the Chargers’ mid-season swoon be putting this one in flex jeopardy? There aren’t many alternatives, but…
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Raiders and Patriots-Broncos are the only remotely good options, unless you consider the unbeaten Packers beating up on the 4-7 Chiefs “remotely good”.
  • Analysis: However, we’ve seen an increasing polarization of the league to the extent that “remotely good” pretty much means “good” (there is only one team in the league at 5-6, the Bills). Lions-Raiders is 7-4 v. 7-4, but the real attraction may be Patriots-Broncos, at 8-3 v. 6-5 and the prospect of Tom Brady v. Tim Tebow. Compare that to Ravens-Chargers at 8-3 v. 4-7. None of the teams involved are close to maxing out, so a flex is a very real possibility. If the Broncos beat the Vikings – and why wouldn’t they? – there’s almost no reason not to put Patriots-Broncos on Sunday night, which would have been unthinkable a month and a half ago. Unless the Chargers can salvage something by beating the woebegone Jags Monday night…

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (5-6)
WEST
47-4		 58-3
6-5
NORTH
38-3		 67-4
8-3
EAST
28-3		 6-5
6-5 6-5
SOUTH
18-3		 6-5
6-5
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD ELIMINATED
FROM PLAYOFFS
EAST
47-4		 57-4 2-9
6-5
SOUTH
38-3		 67-4
7-4
WEST
29-2		 7-4
4-7 6-5
NORTH
111-0
2 tied at 7-4
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Titans-Texans, Lions-Packers, Ravens-Bengals. Bills-Patriots is looking like a dark horse more than anything, and the AFC West and NFC South just don’t pair up right.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 14 Picks

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Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and tied for the division lead entering Week 12. For a flex to have ever been in the realm of possibility, one or both teams would have had to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Texans (8-3)-Bengals (7-4), Raiders (7-4)-Packers (11-0), Saints (7-3)-Titans (6-5), Broncos (6-5)-Bears (7-4).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: The Saints can improve their chances at the expense of one of the tentative teams.
  • Analysis: I said last week that both teams would have to lose for this game to be flexed out, and even then the chances would be extremely slim, and the Cowboys won. Texans-Bengals and Raiders-Packers would be better games even if the Giants won in terms of average record, though Saints-Titans and Broncos-Bears are only equivalent games at best, so they’re out. But Raiders-Packers is lopsided (and the undefeated factor is only likely to come into play Week 17), and even if Texans-Bengals finishes a full game ahead of Cowboys-Giants, they’re not nearly as TV-attractive. Regardless of whether the division lead actually ends up on the line, the tentative game bias wins again. (And keep an eye out there, because there’s a chance the division won’t be settled Week 17 and the return match at the Met winds up on NBC as well!)
  • Final prediction: New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (no change).

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 12

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After a weekend of upsets, it’s official: we’re going to have a one-loss team in the national championship game, and after a few years of relative lack of controversy the BCS mess is back with a vengeance. An LSU-Alabama rematch may be the least bad option at this point; no one, not even the people who put them there, thinks Arkansas is really the third-best team in the country (though they might prove it with an upset win over LSU), and Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, and Stanford are a rather uninspiring crop of one-loss teams. (By the way, who says the Golden Boot is a fake, manufactured rivalry?) If the two best teams happen to come from the same division of the same conference, is that really all that bad? (Okay, so their first meeting was unwatchable, but still!)

A note on the lineal titles: I’ve split the ’09 Boise State title, giving Oregon a continuing claim to the title because of the sanctions against USC.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 LSU SEC ’06 Boise St.
11-0 LW: A Rat: .834 B Rating: 53.397 C Rating: 46.352 AP: 1 BCS: 1
LSU avoided the epidemic of upsets against Ole Miss, but will their luck run out against Arkansas?
2 Alabama SEC BCS Title
10-1 LW: A Rat: .775 B Rating: 49.410 C Rating: 42.817 AP: 2 BCS: 2
Bama might as well have taken a week off against I-AA Georgia Southern, but now they’re in the catbird seat. But Auburn wants to recover something of their season.
3 Oklahoma State B12 BCS Title
10-1 LW: A Rat: .643 B Rating: 45.045 C Rating: 37.747 AP: 5 BCS: 4
The Cowboys will have a week to stew over the Iowa State loss – but Baylor loss aside, Oklahoma will be a far tougher test.
4 Boise State MWC MWC Title
9-1 LW: A Rat: .675 B Rating: 39.471 C Rating: 33.203 AP: 7 BCS: 7
Boise is looking like they picked a good time to lose, even if they need help from UNLV in two weeks to parlay it into a possible BCS bowl with a loss.
5 Oklahoma B12 Big 12 Title
8-2 LW: A Rat: .580 B Rating: 39.619 C Rating: 33.143 AP: 12 BCS: 9
Disappointing loss, and before facing Oklahoma State they have to take on the team that beat the Cowboys.
6 Oregon P12 Bowl Position
9-2 LW: A Rat: .590 B Rating: 30.983 C Rating: 25.742 AP: 9 BCS: 10
In one fell swoop, Oregon went from a potential national title contender to being a long shot for any BCS bowl. Nothing left to do but take care of their rivals.
7 Houston USA BCS Bowl
11-0 LW: A Rat: .781 B Rating: 33.570 C Rating: 24.027/strong> AP: 8 BCS: 8
Houston is looking like a mortal lock to become the 5th non-BCS team to play in a BCS game – but if they lose to Tulsa they won’t even be playing in the conference title game.
8 Wisconsin B10 Big 10 Title
9-2 LW: A Rat: .647 B Rating: 30.112 C Rating: 22.994 AP: 15 BCS: 16
A rather pedestrian win over Illinois leaves the Badgers open to a slip. Now they play Penn State with the winner headed to Indianapolis.
9 Michigan B10 Bowl Position
9-2 LW: A Rat: .589 B Rating: 23.256 C Rating: 19.192 AP: 17 BCS: 15
The Wolverines just embarassed Nebraska, and while they’re officially not going to the conference title game, they care a whole lot more about the golden opportunity to turn the tables on the Buckeyes.
10 Stanford P12 BCS Title
10-1 LW: A Rat: .681 B Rating: 22.342 C Rating: 16.184 AP: 4 BCS: 6
While no one seriously thinks the Cardinal are worse than V-Tech, you gotta do better than a field-goal victory over a team that struggled to get bowl-eligible, even if they are your rival. No matter, though: the title game awaits.
11 Arkansas SEC SEC Title
9-1 LW: #17 A Rat: .631 B Rating: 17.674 C Rating: 12.505 AP: 3 BCS: 3
While is ridiculous, the Razorbacks are at least trying to live up to it with blowout wins over the likes of Mississippi State. If they can beat LSU, they’d be pretty close to deserving a national title trip.
12 TCU MWC MWC Title
9-2 LW: #16 A Rat: .579 B Rating: 14.502 C Rating: 9.335 AP: 19 BCS: 20
How incredible is it that people have started to whisper about TCU going to a BCS bowl, as a non-BCS conference team, with not one, but two losses?
13 Virginia Tech ACC Prncton/Yale
10-1 LW: A Rat: .604 B Rating: 11.887 C Rating: 8.469 AP: 6 BCS: 5
National title contenders don’t beat 6-5 North Carolina by three points at home, but the ACC has provided enough lack of parity that people are noticing V-Tech’s strong season – and this weekend’s big Commonwealth Cup.
14 Notre Dame   Bowl Position
8-3 LW: #12 A Rat: .462 B Rating: 11.082 C Rating: 7.845 AP: 22 BCS: 22
Pedestrian win over a pedestrian Boston College team, and now Stanford will represent the ultimate challenge for the Golden Domers.
15 Georgia SEC SEC Title
9-2 LW: #14 A Rat: .573 B Rating: 11.539 C Rating: 7.785 AP: 13 BCS: 13
Georgia fans want you to be asking: What if we pulled the upset in the SEC title game? It’s not entirely outside the realm of possibility.
16 Southern Miss USA C-USA Title
9-2 LW: A Rat: .548 B Rating: 11.509 C Rating: 6.287 — —
The Eagles will still make the conference title game with a win over Memphis or a Marshall loss, but can you imagine how huge it would’ve been if it was a ranked unbeaten against a ranked one-loss team?
17 USC P12 ’09 Boise St.
9-2 LW: #20 A Rat: .525 B Rating: 8.106 C Rating: 4.680 AP: 10 SBNBlog: 13
Not only USC, but the Pac-12 is cursing themselves for the Trojans being bowl-ineligible. If USC beats UCLA and Utah and Arizona State lose as well, UCLA will go to the conference title game despite probably not bowling if they lose.
18 South Carolina SEC Bowl Position
9-2 LW: #19 A Rat: .540 B Rating: 7.159 C Rating: 4.548 AP: 14 BCS: 12
When’s the last time the Palmetto State rivalry was this important? It would’ve been even more important had Clemson not just lost.
19 Penn State B10 Big 10 Title
9-2 LW: #23 A Rat: .536 B Rating: 6.736 C Rating: 4.473 AP: 20 BCS: 19
Penn State bounces back and gets their first win without Joe Paterno. But the clash with Wisconsin is humongous.
20 Texas A&M B12 Bowl Position
6-5 LW: #21 A Rat: .346 B Rating: 6.506 C Rating: 3.470 — —
A&M just took another heartbreaking loss to a good team to close out their run in the Big 12 – and possibly, the Lone Star Showdown for good.
21 Toledo MAC MAC Title
7-4 LW: A Rat: .389 B Rating: 5.883 C Rating: 3.027 — —
The Rockets just became the biggest Eastern Michigan fans in the country.
22 Rutgers BST Big East Title
8-3 LW: #26 A Rat: .464 B Rating: 4.482 C Rating: 2.443 — —
Hey, the alleged BCS conference Big East actually mustered a Top 25 team again! Now if South Florida can beat Louisville, we’ll get a Big East BCS representative that isn’t barely bowl-eligible and is actually pretty good!
23 Florida State ACC Bowl Position
7-4 LW: #22 A Rat: .441 B Rating: 4.723 C Rating: 1.716 — —
One-point loss against a team that could make the conference title game means only a one-spot drop. Now without Meyer or Tebow, the Seminoles have a chance to best rival Florida for once.
24 Nebraska B10 Bowl Position
8-3 LW: #18 A Rat: .448 B Rating: 3.091 C Rating: 1.261 AP: 22 BCS: 21
Tim-ber! Catastrophic loss to Michigan sends the Huskers tumbling. Only bowl position matters now, and a potential new rivalry with Iowa could be pivotal in determining that.
25 Clemson ACC ACC Title
9-2 LW: #15 A Rat: .496 B Rating: 2.525 C Rating: -.311 AP: 18 BCS: 17
Of course, Nebraska’s loss is nothing compared to Clemson getting blown out by an NC State team needing the win to become bowl-eligible. Might the Cocks see blood in the water?


2010 TCU Title: #46 Baylor (7-3), .387, -9.526, -10.106

Off Top 25: #27 Missouri (was #25)

Watch List: #26 Miami (FL)

Other Positive B Ratings: Arizona State, Utah State*, #30 Tulsa, Iowa*, #33 Michigan State, #35 Ohio, #36 Georgia Tech*, #38 Northern Illinois, #39 Arkansas State* (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #27 Missouri

Bottom 10: #111 Indiana, #112 UNLV, #113 UAB, #114 Colorado, #115 Kansas, #116 Florida Atlantic, #117 Memphis, #118 Tulane, #119 Akron, #120 New Mexico

Best game of week: Arkansas @ LSU, 11:30am PT, CBS