MorganWick.com

Conference tournaments are starting to get into gear, so better late than never to add the remaining 19 or so auto bids to the ladder. (I don’t actually have write-ups for them because this is late enough as it is.) I used to marvel at the committee’s ability to sort out fairly weak teams no one had heard about, but going in to trying it myself I was actually expecting it to go a bit easier than sorting out the auto bids, since under normal circumstances these teams would be quite spread out on the ladder. Teams listed for auto bids for conferences whose auto bids haven’t been determined are those teams that would have the highest position on the bracket ladder if I extended the ladder that far, not counting conference tournament games. The use of red for the top few teams in this new group is not intended to reflect on where those teams stand in relation to the bubble; it is a very vague guesstimation of how far the bubble extends.

With this addition, we can finally begin to create a bracket (look for a link on Twitter shortly after this goes up) and talk about tourney sites, so a lot of the descriptions for teams on the main ladder have undergone substantial revision even if their relative situation hasn’t much. Some caveats: We (or at least I) know next to nothing how the teams will be paired up for the “First Four” games, other than the last four at-larges will be paired with each other and the last four auto bids will be paired with each other, and we also know next to nothing how the NCAA will try to keep the HBCU association happy. With the old play-in game, the NCAA always made sure at least one team did not come from one of the HBCU conferences (the MEAC and SWAC), to leave open the possibility of both HBCU conference champions making the main field. What will they do now with an additional play-in game? Continue to keep an HBCU team out of the First Four? Put the two HBCU teams in different play-in games to keep the possibility of both teams making the main field? Put the HBCU teams in the same play-in game to guarantee one makes the main field? My guess is the first of the three, but we’re starting to push the limits of that strategy working (we’re talking a 15 seed in a 64-team field), so I’m not holding myself to any particular strategy.

I’ve also made an attempt to break the improbable gridlock at the tip of the bubble, but it’s still not what you expect. I still believe in Marshall and Miami more than most people, I’m still not quite a believer in Washington or Michigan, and I still can’t slide Minnesota or Memphis all the way out of the tournament. But Ole Miss does fall well out of the tournament after losing to lowly Auburn, and apologies to Michael Wilbon, but for all their consistency Northwestern doesn’t have the depth of wins I’d like for the lofty position I had them at before and has way too weak a road record and record against good teams – Minnesota is barely anything at this point. Updates for Saturday’s games coming Monday.

This edition of the Bracket Ladder is complete through the games of March 4, 2011. This means it does not include any of Saturday’s games, including the Duke-North Carolina game.

How to read the chart: Teams are listed in order of my assessment of their strength based on the criteria established by the selection committee. The large gray number to the left is the team’s seed in the NCAA Tournament if the teams were seeded strictly according to the list order. Teams may receive a higher or lower seed because of bracketing principles. If a seed has an “f” superscript, that team would play in one of the “First Four” games in Dayton on the Tuesday or Wednesday after Selection Sunday before playing games against teams in the main bracket. The code at the right side of each team name represents the team’s conference and a running count of the number of teams that conference has in all tournaments. The row beneath the team name packs in a whole bunch of information. In order: The team’s record is on the far left in bold. RPI: Rating Percentage Index rank. SOS: Strength of Schedule rank. R/N: Record in road and neutral-site games. OOC: Record in games outside the conference. RPI TXX: Record against teams in the RPI Top 50 or 100. Wv≥: Number of wins against teams listed seven spots behind them or higher on the ladder. Lv≤: Number of losses against teams listed seven spots ahead of them or worse on the laddera. The colored bar at the far right side of the team name is the most important element, containing most of the information you need to know. It is color-coded to reflect where each team is in the pecking order and what they have to play for, as follows:

Read more

Take a look at the list of colors below. You’ll see a veritable kaleidoscope of colors mentioned: gold, silver, bronze, purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, and red. Many of these colors were intended to keep to a theme; the Olympic medals were obvious, but the bubble colors were also intended to resemble a “traffic light” through green (go to the tournament), yellow (caution), the in-between orange, and red (stop, you’re not getting in).

Instead, it’s been more like blue, yellow, orange. I just tend to leave my options so wide-open that seed ranges are really broad fairly late into the season. I fully expected that teams wouldn’t lock up medal positions until close to championship week, but we only got our first tourney lock with a seed ceiling that wasn’t 1 a week or so ago! I intended the blue area to represent a “4-seed bubble”, or at least representing something worth fighting for other than just getting in to the tournament, and envisioned most of the tourney locks falling in the green range, but it seems blue is becoming the true color representing “lock”. (Maybe I should have made green “probably in”, yellow “barely in”, and orange “barely out”.) It doesn’t help that on Saturday, teams with seeds as high as 6 were being listed as “probably in”, and bubble colors trump colors that require a seed range because making the tournament is still more important than seed inside the tournament (and what’s the seed floor for a team that could miss the dance entirely?). With a better handle on what the committee is looking for, I could probably tighten the seed ranges and maybe get some teams in the green, and much of the uncertainty in seed ranges has to do with the inherent uncertainty of conference tournaments. Expect seed ranges to close fast over the next few ladders; you’ll see this already in the capsules for Old Dominion, George Mason, and Gonzaga, whose regular seasons are already basically over. I fully intend to put up ladders daily during Championship Week starting Monday, when I’ll do my conference championship seed range recalibration (CCSRR for short).

In the name of keeping the time spent on composition brief (I started working on this after 2 PM PT!), this is not going to be as robust a comparison as what you’ll see on Friday. I intend to take advantage of having relatively less work to do on Friday, so don’t be surprised by seemingly unjustified, “upon further review” moves on Friday.

This edition of the Bracket Ladder is complete through the games of March 1, 2011. This means it does not include any of Wednesday’s games, including the Connecticut-West Virginia game.

How to read the chart: Teams are listed in order of my assessment of their strength based on the criteria established by the selection committee. The large gray number to the left is the team’s seed in the NCAA Tournament if the teams were seeded strictly according to the list order. Teams may receive a higher or lower seed because of bracketing principles. If a seed has an “f” superscript, that team would play in one of the “First Four” games in Dayton on the Tuesday or Wednesday after Selection Sunday before playing games against teams in the main bracket. The code at the right side of each team name represents the team’s conference and a running count of the number of teams that conference has in all tournaments. The row beneath the team name packs in a whole bunch of information. In order: The team’s record is on the far left in bold. RPI: Rating Percentage Index rank. SOS: Strength of Schedule rank. R/N: Record in road and neutral-site games. OOC: Record in games outside the conference. RPI TXX: Record against teams in the RPI Top 50 or 100. Wv≥: Number of wins against teams listed seven spots behind them or higher on the ladder. Lv≤: Number of losses against teams listed seven spots ahead of them or worse on the laddera. The colored bar at the far right side of the team name is the most important element, containing most of the information you need to know. It is color-coded to reflect where each team is in the pecking order and what they have to play for, as follows:

Read more

So yeah, this is really late because I’m actually starting to get tired of the whole enterprise. But I will press on for you all! Next two ladders will be out Tuesday and Friday.

Three developments on this ladder compared with Monday. First, St. John’s rockets up the board again and turns the Big East’s Big Eight into a Big Nine. There just isn’t enough of a case to be made against them, and frankly, the Big East has an unfair advantage in the seeding since they have so many teams on the top few seed lines. Second, Connecticut’s loss to Marquette finally gives me an excuse to dislodge them from the top seed line. Third, we’re finally starting to see those ugly profiles I mentioned the last two ladders. On Monday, you’ll see the rest of the auto bids, an actual bracket, and the start of talk about tourney sites.

This edition of the Bracket Ladder is complete through the games of February 25, 2011. This means it does not include any of Saturday’s games, including the BYU-San Diego State game.

How to read the chart: Teams are listed in order of my assessment of their strength based on the criteria established by the selection committee. The large gray number to the left is the team’s seed in the NCAA Tournament if the teams were seeded strictly according to the list order. Teams may receive a higher or lower seed because of bracketing principles. If a seed has an “f” superscript, that team would play in one of the “First Four” games in Dayton on the Tuesday or Wednesday after Selection Sunday before playing games against teams in the main bracket. The code at the right side of each team name represents the team’s conference and a running count of the number of teams that conference has in all tournaments. The row beneath the team name packs in a whole bunch of information. In order: The team’s record is on the far left in bold. RPI: Rating Percentage Index rank. SOS: Strength of Schedule rank. R/N: Record in road and neutral-site games. OOC: Record in games outside the conference. RPI TXX: Record against teams in the RPI Top 50 or 100. Wv≥: Number of wins against teams listed seven spots behind them or higher on the ladder. Lv≤: Number of losses against teams listed seven spots ahead of them or worse on the laddera. The colored bar at the far right side of the team name is the most important element, containing most of the information you need to know. It is color-coded to reflect where each team is in the pecking order and what they have to play for, as follows:

Read more

With every BCS team on the top two seed lines losing over the past week, it seems an opportune time to reassess the top two seed lines and whether they’re an accurate reflection of the best teams in the country. I’m starting to get a sense of how people size up teams – which is not to say that’s how I’m going to start sizing them up. It’s apparent that people seem to place a lot more emphasis on who you’ve lost to than who you’ve beaten. That’s the only explanation for Pitt being penalized seemingly entirely because they lost to Tennessee, admittedly on a neutral site. Never mind that by that logic, Kansas should be penalized for losing to Kansas State, or Texas should be penalized for losing to Nebraska AND USC, or Duke should be penalized for losing to Florida State. (Yeah, as you can probably guess, this process isn’t going to magically move Texas or Duke up to the top line. I’m getting disgusted enough with ESPN, especially Lunardi and Gottleib, that I may write an entire piece outside the Bracket Ladder framework just so Bleacher Report can see my grievances. I knew my opinions would differ from the “mainstream”, but I didn’t know the “mainstream” would be this delusional.)

The Tennessee loss may not have been enough to drop Pittsburgh from the king-of-the-hill position, but the St. John’s loss does raise serious questions about their resume. Pitt still has a gaudy collection of wins against good teams, but having two losses to teams outside the top four seed lines is a serious problem. It’s at this point that I begin to notice that Ohio State’s two losses are both road losses to very good teams, and while the Buckeyes may not have as gaudy a collection of wins as the Panthers, they do have a road nonconference blowout win over a very good Florida team. In the end, the relative standing between the two depended to a large extent on how high the teams that beat them rose as a result of their defeats. I’m still partial to Pitt, but the race is definitely tightening, and the Buckeyes could have easily returned to the king-of-the-hill spot had they beaten Purdue on the road. The rest of the top two seed lines remain unchanged, though I once again have serious misgivings about Kansas. The biggest change is my decision to move Florida (and Kentucky) back a seed line. A team with four losses outside the RPI Top 90 is not a top-three seed.

Because I started doing this VERY late, the only teams outside the tournament that I’ve listed are those necessary to figure out which teams should replace the teams that were at the tip of the bubble last Thursday, a good number of whom lost. Trust me, when we get a significant distance into the bubble, some of the teams on the ladder will be ugly as sin.

This edition of the Bracket Ladder is complete through the games of February 20, 2011. This means it does not include any of Monday’s games, including the Syracuse-Villanova game.

How to read the chart: Teams are listed in order of my assessment of their strength based on the criteria established by the selection committee. The large gray number to the left is the team’s seed in the NCAA Tournament if the teams were seeded strictly according to the list order. Teams may receive a higher or lower seed because of bracketing principles. If a seed has an “f” superscript, that team would play in one of the “First Four” games in Dayton on the Tuesday or Wednesday after Selection Sunday before playing games against teams in the main bracket. The code at the right side of each team name represents the team’s conference and a running count of the number of teams that conference has in all tournaments. The row beneath the team name packs in a whole bunch of information. In order: The team’s record is on the far left in bold. RPI: Rating Percentage Index rank. SOS: Strength of Schedule rank. R/N: Record in road and neutral-site games. OOC: Record in games outside the conference. RPI TXX: Record against teams in the RPI Top 50 or 100. Wv≥: Number of wins against teams listed seven spots behind them or higher on the ladder. Lv≤: Number of losses against teams listed seven spots ahead of them or worse on the laddera. The colored bar at the far right side of the team name is the most important element, containing most of the information you need to know. It is color-coded to reflect where each team is in the pecking order and what they have to play for, as follows:

Read more

We’re extending right up to the last at-large team today, and I’m starting to get a sense of what resumes feel like “NCAA teams”. There are pretty much, right now, 47 of them spread across 10 conferences, exactly enough to fill out the at-large field. You’re going to see some teams on the wrong side of the cutline on Monday, and the way I describe them will seem like a grisly sight: incapable of winning on the road, schedule strengths in the 90s or even out of the top 100, multiple bad if not atrocious losses, exceedingly lacking in wins with wins over teams in the 100-125 range of the RPI counting as “depth”… and yet, their nonconference record will remain superb with rarely more than five losses. As part of the purpose of Bracket Ladder is to show how great even the teams that miss the NCAAs are, I’ll make an effort to show the good in their resumes. I may even dip into what some call “NIT-ology” if only to show that, as bad as the teams we’ll see on Monday may look, it could be worse. (Given how wide the bubble is right now, if I extend all the way to the end of the “Probably outs” I could have most of the NIT field right there, with a little bit left over when you consider the NIT auto bid rule.)

Since the current ladder extends right up to the tip of the bubble, there are no more question mark seed floors. All teams with seed ranges listed have had their floors calculated, and all teams listed as “Probably in” or “Barely in” have a calculated worst-case scenario where they don’t make the tournament. The distinction between “Probably in” and “Barely in” is arbitrary and based on how probable a scenario where a team doesn’t make the tournament is. Generally, if it would take more than one or two major slip-ups to miss the NCAAs, you’re “probably in”, but if you could be left out after one or two slip-ups, you’re “barely in”. Also, the last four at-large teams are listed with an “f” superscript next to their seed on the left side to indicate they’d be playing in one of the new “First Four” games the Tuesday and Wednesday after Selection Sunday. This has zero bearing on who they’d play in those First Four games, other than “one of the other three”, regardless of what seed I have them listed as; there isn’t enough information on how that’s determined, but it almost surely involves the same bracketing constraints as the rest of the bracket.

Meanwhile, I’ve also tried to start recalibrating the ladder with more focus on who you’ve played and how you’ve done against them based on where they stand on the ladder, and I think I’ve been successful for the first seven seed lines. On Monday I’ll introduce a simple yet powerful new tool for measuring performance down the stretch. Also still to come: auto bids (for the last four or five seed lines) and how all this might translate into an actual bracket. At some point I’m going to need to research some of the scenarios for how the Big East could play out for the sake of figuring out accurate seed ceilings.

As promised, a BracketBusters preview. The games involving Old Dominion and George Mason are covered in their respective entries on the ladder below. As for the others:

Kent State @ Drexel (Friday 9pm ET, ESPNU): In my view, Drexel has a surprisingly strong at-large profile, with only two non-RPI-Top-100 losses, a win over Old Dominion, and a road win over Louisville. As mid-majors go, the CAA is strong enough that that deserves a second look. Of course, Hofstra is Drexel’s only other RPI Top 100 win, they have a schedule strength in the 130s and an RPI of 81, and Kent State won’t help very much, since they have an even worse RPI than Hofstra or Drexel. The Golden Flashes have only one RPI Top 100 win, and Miami (OH) barely qualifies, but they won’t be sniffing the tournament even with a win.

Utah State @ St. Mary’s (Saturday 9pm ET, ESPN2): This may be the highlight of BracketBusters. Already suffering, St. Mary’s at-large chances took a major hit with a loss to lowly San Diego. The Gaels desperately need to rebound and get another RPI Top 25 win to prove they’re still the same team that knocked off St. John’s on ESPN’s Tip-off Marathon, or winning the WCC tournament will be vital. And yet, they still don’t need this game more than Utah State. The Aggies, by far the highest RPI team I don’t have in the field, have, to put it simply, no middle ground. Their two losses are to BYU and Georgetown… and their best win, Long Beach State, only barely qualifies as an RPI Top 100 win. This game will completely define how good a team they are. Lose, and forget about at-large hopes with a loss to a team that’s bubbly themselves. Win, and at-large hopes are still a longshot, but you’ve beaten the one RPI 11-50 team you played on the road, so maybe with a tight loss in the WAC Final you can sneak in with other bubble carnage. If the Aggies do win out in conference, this one game could make multiple seed lines’ worth of difference.

Virginia Commonwealth @ Wichita State (Friday 7pm ET, ESPN2): The Shockers may be the Valley’s strongest at-large candidate, which isn’t saying much. Their winning straits aren’t as dire as Utah State’s, with a road win over Northern Iowa under their belts, but they also don’t have all their losses against 2-seeds, including a truly mystifying home loss to Southern Illinois. VCU is a more legit at-large candidate, not only in the CAA where they have a road win over Old Dominion, but even a home win over UCLA. But neither has an RPI over 30, and VCU has a few embarrassing losses. Wichita State has a good enoughg RPI to provide a substantial boost to VCU’s resume, though not a great one, and while a loss would hurt it wouldn’t put them back too far. Meanwhile, VCU would actually be the Shockers’ best RPI win, while still being their third-worst loss. Not that, as a win, it would put them in any bubble contention that serious, especially coming at home.

Missouri State @ Valparaiso (Saturday 5pm ET, ESPN2): Valpo has an interesting resume, with home wins over the Horizon’s other two strong teams for RPI Top 50 wins, and a road win over Oakland is good as well, but they have way too many bad losses, including one to atrocious Toledo. Missouri State might drag them closer to the cut line, but those bad losses will still weigh them down. The Bears don’t have too many total losses or bad losses, as well as road wins over the other two Valley contenders for RPI Top 100 wins, but their strength of schedule is still nose-holding. Valpo could bring them closer to the cutline as well, and if that were to happen I think the results could get very interesting.

Miami (OH) @ James Madison (Saturday Noon ET):James Madison doesn’t have an RPI Top 50 win, but they have enough Top 100 wins, especially Princeton and Marshall at home, to be interesting for at least the NIT conversation. They only have two horrible losses, but they are horrible, coming outside the top 200. Unfortunately, the Redhawks won’t appreciably give them much they don’t already have, and a loss could be disastrous. While not an at-large contender either, wins over Xavier and two other RPI Top 100 teams make Miami (OH)’s resume at least interesting, but likewise the Dukes won’t help them much. And that’s why this is one of the “leftover” games that didn’t make TV.

This edition of the Bracket Ladder is complete through the games of February 16, 2011. This means it does not include any of Thursday’s games, including the Minnesota-Penn State game. (Yes, it’s also being released late enough that I should just include the Thursday games. That’s what working on this for virtually 16 hours straight will do to you.)

How to read the chart: Teams are listed in order of my assessment of their strength based on the criteria established by the selection committee. The large gray number to the left is the team’s seed in the NCAA Tournament if the teams were seeded strictly according to the list order. Teams may receive a higher or lower seed because of bracketing principles. If a seed has an “f” superscript, that team would play in one of the “First Four” games in Dayton on the Tuesday or Wednesday after Selection Sunday before playing games against teams in the main bracket. The code at the right side of each team name represents the team’s conference and a running count of the number of teams that conference has in all tournaments. The row beneath the team name packs in a whole bunch of information. In order: The team’s record is on the far left in bold. RPI: Rating Percentage Index rank. SOS: Strength of Schedule rank. R/N: Record in road and neutral-site games. OOC: Record in games outside the conference. RPI TXX: Record against teams in the RPI Top 50 or 100. Wv≥: Number of wins against teams listed seven spots behind them or higher on the ladder. Lv≤: Number of losses against teams listed seven spots ahead of them or worse on the laddera. The colored bar at the far right side of the team name is the most important element, containing most of the information you need to know. It is color-coded to reflect where each team is in the pecking order and what they have to play for, as follows:

Read more

We’re going to move to a twice-weekly schedule this week, so tune in Thursday for a complete preview of BracketBusters. However, I will say right now that there may be no more than two BracketBuster teams that enter the event in the field. I’ve only determined 23 of the 37 at-larges (we’re extending to the 8th seed line today), but the next two seed lines may be lacking in any teams outside the BCS conferences and Mountain West – think the likes of Marquette, Michigan State, Arizona, Florida State, Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, and Penn State. The remaining six spots may include the likes of Marshall, Drexel, St. Mary’s, and George Mason, though.

Meanwhile, there really are no great teams this year. Kansas moves up to the overall #2 seed but still doesn’t have the deepest collection of wins. Duke has one RPI top 30 win and no true road wins in the top 60, and outside the Ladder they’re seriously being considered for a #1 seed. Florida has multiple atrocious losses and they’re on the #3 seed line; Wisconsin got propelled up to the third seed line by beating Ohio State mostly because the teams on the fourth line looked weak.

This edition of the Bracket Ladder is complete through the games of JFebruary 13, 2011. This means it does not include any of Monday’s games, including the Syracuse-West Virginia game.

How to read the chart: Teams are listed in order of my assessment of their strength based on the criteria established by the selection committee. The large gray number to the left is the team’s seed in the NCAA Tournament if the teams were seeded strictly according to the list order. Teams may receive a higher or lower seed because of bracketing principles. The code at the right side of each team name represents the team’s conference and a running count of the number of teams that conference has in all tournaments. The row beneath the team name packs in a whole bunch of information. In order: The team’s record is on the far left in bold. RPI: Rating Percentage Index rank. SOS: Strength of Schedule rank. R/N: Record in road and neutral-site games. OOC: Record in games outside the conference. RPI T50: Record against teams in the RPI Top 50. Wv≥: Number of wins against teams with the same or better color (more on this later). Lv≤: Number of losses against teams with the same or worse color. The colored bar at the far right side of the team name is the most important element, containing most of the information you need to know. It is color-coded to reflect where each team is in the pecking order and what they have to play for, as follows:

Thanks to my decision to switch the process over to Opera (Chrome would work best if it didn’t blank the screen for a few seconds every time I switch tabs), we’ve extended the ladder by not one, not two, but THREE seed lines! We’re also seeing the first hints of what I call seed range, explained below. Teams with good seeds have their seed ranges listed, and one lucky team can start talking about their colors changing as their seed floor closes in. Teams I didn’t calculate seed ranges for are listed with a question mark for their seed floor. Everyone south of the top four seed lines is listed as “Probably in”, taking a cue from ESPN’s “bubble watch”, not because I’ve calculated seed floors that far down, which I haven’t. (To be frank, I could conceivably extend the “Probably in” line further up, not down – see how wide a net I cast below.) One team is listed as “Barely in” to flag serious problems with their resume.

This edition of the Bracket Ladder is complete through the games of February 6, 2011. This means it does not include any of Monday’s games, including the Pitt-West Virginia game.

How to read the chart: Teams are listed in order of my assessment of their strength based on the criteria established by the selection committee. The large gray number to the left is the team’s seed in the NCAA Tournament if the teams were seeded strictly according to the list order. Teams may receive a higher or lower seed because of bracketing principles. The code at the right side of each team name represents the team’s conference and a running count of the number of teams that conference has in all tournaments. The row beneath the team name packs in a whole bunch of information. In order: The team’s record is on the far left in bold. RPI: Rating Percentage Index rank. SOS: Strength of Schedule rank. R/N: Record in road and neutral-site games. OOC: Record in games outside the conference. RPI T50: Record against teams in the RPI Top 50. Wv≥: Number of wins against teams with the same or better color (more on this later). Lv≤: Number of losses against teams with the same or worse color. The colored bar at the far right side of the team name is the most important element, containing most of the information you need to know. It is color-coded to reflect where each team is in the pecking order and what they have to play for, as follows:

As if last week’s seven Big East teams on the top four seed lines wasn’t absurd enough, this week Big East teams take eight of those top seed lines, with St. John’s not far behind and Cincinnati and Marquette potentially appearing later as well! This week’s process went much smoother; I just did some tweaking of last week’s ladder last night, ending it with all four seed lines pretty much set, and thought I could spend most of today extending the ladder downwards… and instead spent it waiting for Internet Explorer to finish refreshing the pages and finding out the ladder changed more than I thought yesterday. And then I was detained after one of my classes for about 15 minutes, already after Georgetown-Louisville, and then IE took forever even when it wasn’t loading any pages… God willing, we’ll actually extend the ladder again next week, and even put it out before any of Monday’s games finish! (I actually find this enjoyable, when I can get IE to stop acting up on me!) “Good wins” and “bad losses” now include the seven teams directly behind you on the ladder for wins and the seven teams directly ahead of you for losses (guesstimated for teams on the 3 and 4 seed lines). Nominally, the committee is constantly comparing you in groups of eight, so this statistic will include any teams you might be directly compared with by the committee.

This edition of the Bracket Ladder is complete through the games of January 30, 2011. This means it does not include any of Monday’s games, including the Georgetown-Louisville game.

How to read the chart: Teams are listed in order of my assessment of their strength based on the criteria established by the selection committee. The large gray number to the left is the team’s seed in the NCAA Tournament if the teams were seeded strictly according to the list order. Teams may receive a higher or lower seed because of bracketing principles. The code at the right side of each team name represents the team’s conference and a running count of the number of teams that conference has in all tournaments. The row beneath the team name packs in a whole bunch of information. In order: The team’s record is on the far left in bold. RPI: Rating Percentage Index rank. SOS: Strength of Schedule rank. R/N: Record in road and neutral-site games. OOC: Record in games outside the conference. RPI T50: Record against teams in the RPI Top 50. Wv≥: Number of wins against teams with the same or better color (more on this later). Lv≤: Number of losses against teams with the same or worse color. The colored bar at the far right side of the team name is the most important element, containing most of the information you need to know. It is color-coded to reflect where each team is in the pecking order and what they have to play for, as follows:

I decided to almost start over from scratch using a modified procedure, didn’t have much time on Sunday because of the NFL conference championship games, and spent a good chunk of Monday just trying to fix the coding errors from last week, so this probably shouldn’t be any further advanced from last week, but I decided I was determined to press on and complete the top four seed lines, and spent the next two hours getting increasingly frustrated at not finding a place to work. The blue colored bars on the right side don’t mean anything right now, but eventually they’ll look like the jumble of numbers you see in the explanation below, which I hope to further explain later. Also, the “good wins” and “bad losses” entries are still almost arbitrary, though approaching closer to a more meaningful, if (at the moment) not necessarily consistent, definition.

This edition of the Bracket Ladder is complete through the games of January 23, 2011. This means it does not include any of Monday’s games, including the Notre Dame-Pitt game.

How to read the chart: Teams are listed in order of my assessment of their strength based on the criteria established by the selection committee. The large gray number to the left is the team’s seed in the NCAA Tournament if the teams were seeded strictly according to the list order. Teams may receive a higher or lower seed because of bracketing principles. The code at the right side of each team name represents the team’s conference and a running count of the number of teams that conference has in all tournaments. The row beneath the team name packs in a whole bunch of information. In order: The team’s record is on the far left in bold. RPI: Rating Percentage Index rank. SOS: Strength of Schedule rank. R/N: Record in road and neutral-site games. OOC: Record in games outside the conference. RPI T50: Record against teams in the RPI Top 50. Wv≥: Number of wins against teams with the same or better color (more on this later). Lv≤: Number of losses against teams with the same or worse color. The colored bar at the far right side of the team name is the most important element, containing most of the information you need to know. It is color-coded to reflect where each team is in the pecking order and what they have to play for, as follows:

Due to time constraints and how early in the season it is, this is pretty much just a demonstration of the demonstration of the concept. I just picked out the teams on the top three seed lines – that was as far as I got in about four and a half hours – so this is just a bunch of capsules of the top 12 teams, and because a lot can change between now and Selection Sunday I can’t even begin to assess where teams might end up standing in the long term. All these teams, with the possible exception of the very bottom team, have a reasonable chance to end up a 1 seed, so consider this your “1 seed bubble”. The “Featured” stuff next to each team is meaningless now, but I’ll explain their purpose next week. Also, the “good wins” and “bad losses” entries are almost arbitrary. They’re supposed to represent wins to teams ahead of or on the same level as yourself, and conversely losses to teams behind or on the same level as yourself, but this early in the season the definition of “same level” probably needs to be tightened; “same color” (which will eventually tie in to the “Featured” thing) obviously won’t work since all these teams would have the same color.

This edition of the Bracket Ladder is complete through the games of January 17, 2011. This means this does NOT include Tuesday’s games, including Alabama’s upset of Kentucky.

How to read the chart: Teams are listed in order of my assessment of their strength based on the criteria established by the selection committee. The large gray number to the left is the team’s seed in the NCAA Tournament if the teams were seeded strictly according to the list order. Teams may receive a higher or lower seed because of bracketing principles. The code at the right side of each team name represents the team’s conference and a running count of the number of teams that conference has in all tournaments. The row beneath the team name packs in a whole bunch of information. In order: The team’s record is on the far left in bold. RPI: Rating Percentage Index rank. SOS: Strength of Schedule rank. R/N: Record in road and neutral-site games. OOC: Record in games outside the conference. RPI T50: Record against teams in the RPI Top 25. Wv≥: Number of wins against teams with the same or better color (more on this later). Lv≤: Number of losses against teams with the same or worse color.