NFL Flexible Scheduling Watch: Week 9

On Wednesday’s First Take, Chris “Mad Dog” Russo ranted about the Cowboys’ surfeit of nationally televised games. Of the eight games the Cowboys have after the bye, six are slated for featured windows – and one of the other two is in Week 18, where nothing can be slated for featured windows ahead of time. Russo acknowledged “I know they’re gonna get ratings” but begged Joe Buck not to claim that the Cowboys “have a chance to make the playoffs” when he calls the Cowboys against the Raiders in two weeks, declaring “They! Are! Out! Of! It!”

A few hours later, ESPN underscored why the Cowboys are scheduled for so many nationally televised windows and are unlikely to be flexed out of all of them. This past Monday’s Cardinals-Cowboys game drew 16.2 million viewers, the second-highest total ESPN has drawn in Week 9 since 2011. Two sub-.500 teams drew an audience a million viewers over Monday Night Football‘s season average despite the Disney networks being blacked out on YouTube TV. To put that in perspective, Saturday’s big Oklahoma-Tennessee game had the lowest viewership of any program to be the most-watched opposite a World Series Game 7 in over 20 years, by over two million, despite only one such program in the intervening time being a live event of any kind and none of them being live sports. I have to imagine it would have done significantly better without the YouTube TV blackout, yet Cardinals-Cowboys managed to hold up to the tune of nearly four times the audience. (That said, it was the worst viewership mark of the season for a game that wasn’t part of a “doubleheader”, trailing two games that were part of “doubleheaders” and last week’s Washington-Chiefs game that went up against the World Series itself.)

This is why “Cowboys uber alles” exists: no matter how bad the Cowboys get, they can draw good enough ratings that networks would line up to get a package of just their games, and even if this year’s Cowboys might seem to “stink”, their offense is good enough that even games that might look like mismatches on paper have the potential to be entertaining. That doesn’t mean the Cowboys are completely immune to flexing – witness Cowboys-Browns a few years ago or, if you count late afternoon games, Cowboys-Eagles last year – but it seems like either both teams have to be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, or the Cowboys could be eliminated but wouldn’t be if the game was played at an earlier time. None of that is likely to apply this year; the Cowboys’ Week 17 game is being played on Christmas and can’t be flexed, while their Week 16 game is their one remaining game before Week 18 that’s not scheduled for a featured window, and the prospect of it being flexed into primetime will affect what game does get flexed.

That leaves only two remaining Cowboys games in flexible featured windows, not counting Eagles-Cowboys on Fox Week 12, both with enough time left in the season that Cowboys fans could still have an outside chance of making the playoffs: Cowboys-Lions on the Thursday after Thanksgiving, and Vikings-Cowboys on Sunday night Week 15. I think Bears-Packers could potentially be swapped for Cowboys-Lions and keep the “full week’s rest for both teams” component of the week-after-Thanksgiving game, but even if that was under consideration Fox would probably protect it and swap it in for Bengals-Bills in its late doubleheader window instead. As for Vikings-Cowboys, the NFL wishes it was the worst of its problems that week because if it were, and if they were willing to flex it, they could simply swap in Colts-Seahawks; instead, as we’ve detailed in past weeks, they’re stuck looking at the even worse Dolphins in the Monday night window without a viable alternative to pivot to. Still, if the Cowboys are far enough out of it by then, that might be a situation worth paying attention to.

How NFL flexible scheduling works: (see also the NFL’s own page on flex schedule procedures)

• Up to two games in Weeks 5-10 (the “early flex” period), and any number of games from Week 11 onward, may be flexed into Sunday Night Football. Any number of games from Week 12 onward may be flexed into Monday Night Football, and up to two games from Week 13 onward may be flexed into Thursday Night Football. In addition, in select weeks in December a number of games may be listed as “TBD”, with two or three of those games being assigned to be played on Saturday. Note that I only cover early flexes if a star player on one of the teams is injured.
• Only games scheduled for Sunday afternoon, or set aside for a potential move to Saturday, may be flexed into one of the flex-eligible windows – not existing primetime games or games in other standalone windows. The game currently listed in the flex-eligible window will take the flexed-in game’s space on the Sunday afternoon slate, generally on the network that the flexed-in game was originally scheduled for. The league may also move Sunday afternoon games between 1 PM ET and 4:05 or 4:25 PM ET.
• Thursday Night Football flex moves must be announced 21 days in advance. Sunday and Monday Night Football moves must be announced 12 days in advance, except for Sunday night games in Week 14 onward, which can be announced at any point up until 6 days in advance.
• CBS and Fox have the right to protect one game each per week, among the games scheduled for their networks, from being flexed into primetime windows. During the early flex period, they may protect games at any point once the league tells them they’re thinking of pulling the flex. It’s not known when they must protect games in the main flex period, only that it’s “significantly closer to each game date” relative to the old deadline of Week 5, but what evidence exists suggests they’re submitted within a week or so of the two-week deadline; what that means for Thursday night flexes that are due earlier is unclear.
• On paper, CBS and Fox are also guaranteed one half of each division rivalry. However, in 2023 some Week 18 games (see below) had their other halves scheduled for the other conference’s network, though none were scheduled for primetime, and this year there’s another such matchup and another matchup that has one game on the other conference’s network and the other in primetime.
• No team may appear more than seven times in primetime windows – six scheduled before the season plus one flexed in. This appears to consider only the actual time the game is played, that is, Amazon’s Black Friday game does not count even though the rest of their TNF slate does. This post contains a list of all teams’ primetime appearances entering the season.
• Teams may play no more than two Thursday games following Sunday games, and (apparently) no more than one of them can be on the road without the team’s permission.
• In Week 18 the entire schedule, consisting entirely of games between divisional opponents, is set on six days’ notice, usually during the previous week’s Sunday night game. One game will be scheduled for Sunday night, usually a game that decides who wins the division, a game where the winner is guaranteed to make the playoffs while the loser is out, or a game where one team makes the playoffs with a win but falls behind the winner of another game, and thus loses the division and/or misses the playoffs, with a loss. Two more games with playoff implications are scheduled for Saturday on ABC and ESPN, with the remaining games doled out to CBS and Fox on Sunday afternoon, with the league generally trying to maximize what each team has to play for. Protections and appearance limits do not apply to Week 18.
• Click here to learn how to read the charts.

Week 12 final prediction (made last week): no changes.

2025 Week 13 Flex Schedule Watch Through Week 9 | morganwick.com
	6-2	5-3
	7-2	3-6
	2-7	7-2
Sunday Afternoon Flex Candidates (11/30)
	6-2	5-4	CAR: W12 MNF
	4-4	6-2
	3-5	7-2	@HOU: W18
	3-5	6-2
	5-3	3-5	@PIT: W18

Week 13: It’s hard for me to entirely write off the Giants with Jaxson Dart as their current three-game losing streak has all come against teams currently in the playoffs, but the most recent loss came at home against Mac Jones and a 49ers team that wouldn’t be in the playoffs if they had lost that game. Only two weeks remain before the league has to make a decision about Giants-Patriots, and the first game, on the road against a feisty Bears squad, might be the easier of the two. Lose, and this game is officially on flex watch.

Giving a team consecutive Monday night games by flexing in a game in the second of the two weeks is more acceptable than the reverse because it doesn’t change the rest mismatch, just the total amount of rest for both teams, but I suspect it was probably still a bridge too far for the league in Week 13 last year, which could put Rams-Panthers off-limits for a Monday move. But the Cardinals officially have a better record than the Giants by a game and a half, and would remain so if the Giants continue to lose. And frankly, the Cardinals’ upcoming games in Seattle and at home to the 49ers could be trap games for both; win one while the Giants lose both of their upcoming games, and Cardinals-Bucs just might be a viable flexing option, even if the Cardinals have a losing record.

Meanwhile, Washington’s Sunday night walloping at the hands of the Seahawks might have snuffed out what was left of their season, so the trick I suggested last week, where the league uses the threat of Rams-Panthers going to Sunday night to get Fox to agree to let Vikings-Seahawks go to Monday night, remains in the conversation. The league would much prefer to flex in Vikings-Seahawks not only because of the name value and the storyline of Sam Darnold facing the team he carried to the playoffs last year, but because it would be trapped in the late singleheader window otherwise, although it’s not enticing enough to force Fox to leave it unprotected. Still, depending on how things play out and how much is reported, this could be an intriguing glimpse into how the protection regime really works with multiple flexible windows.

2025 Week 14 Flex Schedule Watch Through Week 9 | morganwick.com
	3-5-1	5-3
	3-6	6-2
	3-5	5-4	6-day flex
	6-2	6-3	“Funday Football”
Sunday Afternoon Flex Candidates (12/7)
	5-3	5-2-1	TNF-safe (CHI BF, GB TG)
	7-2	5-3	@IND: FOX
	6-2	3-5	ATL: W15 TNF

Week 14: Fox’s triumphant embrace of an all-AFC matchup in their featured window has run headlong into the reality of yet another injury to Joe Burrow. The Bengals’ losses the last three weeks have been by a combined eight points, but losses they remain, and the last one particularly hurts because the Bears play in the game most likely to replace Bengals-Bills in the late afternoon window.

Certainly Fox may have to decide which game they want to roll with if the Texans continue to struggle, because Rams-Cardinals (who meet again Week 18) is the only game on their slate that can’t move to Sunday night. But right now Bears-Packers is the only game on their slate, and one of only two on Sunday, pitting two teams above .500, meaning none of the games that would be available to the league would be any better than one involving the Texans.

2025 Week 15 Flex Schedule Watch Through Week 9 | morganwick.com
	3-5	6-2
	5-3	6-2	LAR: W16 TNF
	5-2-1	7-2	GB: W16 Sat
	4-4	3-5-1	6-day flex
	2-7	5-3
Sunday Afternoon Flex Candidates (12/14)
	7-2	6-2	SEA: W16 TNF
	6-2	7-2	@BUF: SNF
	6-3	5-4	v. LAC: YT
	3-5	3-5	TNF-safe

Week 15: Back in May, I mentioned that the Sunday slate this week was so riddled with games that couldn’t be flexed that the only reason it didn’t represent a failure by the league to schedule with flex scheduling in mind was because of the principle of “Cowboys uber alles”. Thankfully for NBC, the Cowboys have been more respectable than a lot of people expected after the Micah Parsons trade, and this game is at least one that the tentative game bias would favor as well – and even if it wasn’t, the Colts’ surprising season means the league actually would have a viable alternative to flex in. On the other hand, the Dolphins becoming a tire fire has resulted in a game warranting a flex that would be even more difficult to replace.

I was worried about CBS having a number of marquee divisional matchups they wouldn’t need to protect, but when it comes to Monday night CBS doesn’t even need to protect their hottest non-divisional matchups. All told, here is the complete list of all games that can move to this Monday night: Jets-Jaguars, Cardinals-Texans, Titans-Niners, Panthers-Saints. Only one of those four games doesn’t involve a team with a worse record as the Dolphins. ESPN might be hoping the Dolphins’ win over the Falcons is the start of them climbing out of the abyss, only briefly interrupted by hosting Lamar Jackson’s return, because as it stands they’re probably stuck with them.

2025 Week 16 Flex Schedule Watch Through Week 9 | morganwick.com
	6-2	6-2
	5-3	5-3	DET: Xmas
	3-6	2-7	6-day flex
	6-3	7-2
Sunday Afternoon Flex Candidates (12/21)
	5-3	7-2	DEN: W17 TNF
	6-2	5-4	@TB: W18
	6-3	3-5-1	DAL: 6 PT DAL: Xmas
	7-2	3-5
	3-5	3-5	TNF-safe* (ATL: W15 TNF)

Week 16: Bengals-Dolphins, on the other hand, remains the likeliest flex on the slate. Fox has no fewer than three games involving only teams with better records than the Bengals, let alone the Dolphins (although one of them probably can’t move because the two teams have a rematch Week 18), and I’d still expect them to protect the weakest of the three because Cowboys – and that’s not even getting into Patriots-Ravens. The Jaguars’ typically weak name value might be counteracted by the presence of Travis Hunter and the general prospect of both teams making the playoffs, making it a compelling enough candidate to rescue from the late singleheader; Patriots-Ravens would be more compelling if the Ravens continue to win, but the league might prefer to throw a bone to the early doubleheader window. There’s still an off chance NBC wants to keep Bengals-Dolphins if it looks like it’s the game where Joe Burrow comes back, but that seems highly unlikely.

2025 Week 17 Flex Schedule Watch Through Week 8 | morganwick.com
	6-2	6-2
	5-3	6-3	6-day flex
	6-2	3-5
2 of These Games to Saturday 12/27
	6-2	5-4
	3-5	6-3
	3-5	5-2-1
	3-5	3-6
	2-7	2-6
Sunday Afternoon Flex Candidates (12/28)
	5-3	7-2

Week 17: On the league’s Flexible Scheduling Procedures page, Thursday night flexing is only mentioned to be applying to Weeks 14-16, implying that this year’s Christmas night game is not subject to flex scheduling. That should probably have been expected; Thursday night flexing is bad enough without also potentially ruining two teams’ Christmases on short notice.

In May I noted that the league seemed to be swinging for the fences when it came to the Saturday slate, just in time for Peacock to take over one of the Saturday flex windows that have heretofore been NFL Network’s turf, with no fewer than three potentially marquee (or at least, potential lead singleheader or early doubleheader) games slated for potential Saturday moves when there are only two Saturday windows. That has not worked out as hoped, with the Ravens’ slow start exacerbated by the Texans’ slow start and Bengals’ injury woes. The good news is that the Panthers look like they’re for real and could make their game with the Seahawks enticing, and Ravens-Packers might already be back to being the second-most interesting game on the Saturday slate, but right now Jaguars-Colts is a better option than any of the potential Saturday games.

Week 18: If Week 18 were this week Chargers-Broncos, Lions-Bears, and Seahawks-Niners would all determine the order of finish between the teams while deciding division titles or wild card spots; Packers-Vikings and Cardinals-Rams could also qualify for Monday or even Sunday night depending on the tiebreaker situation. Ravens-Steelers and Panthers-Bucs could end up entering the running for standalone windows if those division races tighten. Trumps-Eagles could be a long-shot contender for a Saturday spot if it has seeding implications for the Eagles compared to the other division winners, while Chiefs-Raiders could determine the viability of the Chiefs’ division title or even playoff hopes. The AFC East and South are likely to have their games scheduled simultaneously to decide their respective division titles, though seeding implications could scramble that; if the Broncos, Chargers, and Colts all enter Week 18 with identical records and in their respective division leads, Colts-Texans could be an enticing Saturday candidate. (When it comes to Saturday, I don’t think the league would worry about whether the Jaguars have anything to play for as long as they aren’t playing another playoff contender.)