College football’s moment of truth

College football needs to make a conscious decision about what it wants to be, a decision it should have made a long time ago. It can attempt to reclaim the notion of showcasing students who happen to play football, or it can embrace its current popularity and become the NFL’s developmental league, with teams effectively selling their naming rights for a fanbase, probably adopting some sort of playoff system. It can be popular, or it can be college, but it can’t be both.

One of the glories of college football in the pre-ESPN, pre-BCS era was that the results didn’t really matter. Yes, good teams went to bowls at the end of the season and rivals wanted to beat each other, but the real heart of college football was everything surrounding the game – all the pageantry that purists like to talk up. Polls crowned a national champion at the end of the year, but few people really cared. In the words of Ed Guenther, whose series on the college football playoff debate informed my own series on the same debate two years ago, college football was a sport “played regionally on Saturdays”, whereas now it’s “played nationally for four months”.

The BCS is the biggest proximate reason for this change, but it is itself a result of the increasing television attention focused on college football, which began with the birth of ESPN in 1979 and the court case that stripped the NCAA of control over the TV rights to regular-season college football. Once conferences began selling their own TV rights, it became possible to follow college football on a national basis over the course of the whole season. It’s no coincidence that the rise of conference TV contracts coincided with the rise of attempts to provide some sort of “national championship game”. As the national championship became more important, and as the bowls started coming into more and more money as more and more people across the nation became interested in them, the focus shifted away from the overall college football experience, and wins and losses became more important, even all-consuming.

Combine the influx of money into the sport with the increased stakes for getting the best players, and the result is a dog-eat-dog recruiting world. It’s no wonder the college football landscape has been rocked by scandal in recent years, scandal that has, in all likelihood, only scraped the surface of the corruption and under-the-table “extra benefits” trading hands in college football. The ongoing scandal at Miami (FL) is only the worst that has come to light.

The notion of amateurism – once thought to be the bedrock of college sports – now seems quaint to almost everyone outside the NCAA offices, even exploitative when one looks at the amount of money these players provide to their schools and the NCAA while seemingly getting little to nothing in return. The idea of paying players has started to look rather appealing, with the major obstacle being the practical matter of paying participants in non-revenue sports; I believe someone on ESPN (maybe during their Blueprint for Change series?) pointed out that sports are the only collegiate activity that isn’t paid.

Of course, sports aren’t like other collegiate activities. The school band or the student newspaper doesn’t have the whole school coming out to support all of their activities, nor are they broadcast on national television for a tenth to a fifth of the country to see. The school band or student newspaper don’t rack in millions of dollars for their universities, nor do they engage in high-stakes recruiting battles with other schools for the best trombonist or the best reporter. Paying players would only exacerbate a trend that has been growing for the last few decades: players as mercenaries taking their talents to whatever school they feel would best prepare them for the NFL or NBA, or in this case, selling their services to the highest bidder, with no real connection to their schools, and turning college football into a de facto developmental league for the NFL, or college basketball into the NBA’s de facto developmental league, with teams simply selling their naming rights to schools for a fanbase.

College football’s gatekeepers need to figure out whether they want to keep making money hand over fist, or reclaim the notion of amateurism once thought to be at the heart of collegiate athletics. I don’t think the latter can withstand the continuation of the former. The pay-players movement has too much momentum, and lawsuits will be filed if things continue as they are. But college football needs to definitively choose one or the other; they can’t have it both ways. Either approach, however, would involve some hard choices and some decisions college football’s gatekeepers don’t want to make.

If the decision is made to go all-in and turn college football into a money-making developmental league for the NFL, the first thing that should be done is to divorce college football from the NCAA, ASAP. The NCAA has its origins in an effort to clean up college football shortly before World War I, but football is now the sport the NCAA has the least connection to. Cutting off college football from the NCAA at all levels would save the NCAA from an all-sports defection from the big-name football schools that would probably cripple it permanently, allow conference realignment to proceed to 16-team superconferences (and the potential playoff that comes with it) without screwing up the conferences for other sports, and depending on how such a split would be interpreted through the lens of Title IX, save lesser collegiate sports from being sunk by the requirements imposed by the need to pay players. And make no mistake: unless the NCAA and college football’s gatekeepers take steps to reclaim the notion of amateurism in collegiate athletics immediately, they will have to pay players. Hell, it’s already happening under the table and everyone knows it.

The new collegiate football association would then be able to impose the sorts of rules and regulations necessary to create a fairly stable status quo, one that brings the current black market into the light, that could propel what was left of college football into the future without the NCAA’s unnecessary bloat – possibly including a playoff, but such a divorce would open up another approach, which I’ll get to in a later post.

If the NCAA decides that, ultimately, the money isn’t worth losing the soul of college football, then some drastic actions will need to be taken to reclaim it. The first thing will involve putting pressure on the NFL to start its own developmental league (whether from scratch or by absorbing the UFL) and allow potential players to declare for the NFL draft right out of high school without necessarily changing the age limits for the big league, a step absolutely necessary to give people who only see college as a stepping stone to the pros an alternative, similar to the college baseball model.

Then the NCAA needs to impose some drastic, top-to-bottom reforms to, possibly, put the toothpaste back in the tube, completely remaking the rulebook, getting tough on corruption and the Nevin Shapiros of the world, beefing up the enforcement staff and making clear that the age of Michael Wilbon comparing the NCAA to “Barney Fife” is over. It’s possible that ending athletic scholarships and recruiting entirely may be necessary, or at least severely restricting them.

If – and it’s a big if – these moves are successful at bringing the stakes in college football and college sports in general back down to earth (besides potentially keeping the stakes high, the NFL could balk at starting its own developmental league and the big schools could decide they want to keep making money and secede from the NCAA), it’s going to start another major shake-up in college sports. Conferences that were formed for reasons of money will shatter in an instant, with the return of regional rivalries possible but a big long-shot (more likely, conferences remain capped at 12 teams). The BCS could collapse, not necessarily replaced with a playoff as opposed to the old bowl system, and probably half the bowls shut their doors immediately. The result would be a long period of uncertainty, and maybe – maybe – a return to a more idyllic time in college football at the end of it.

I can’t guarantee that any of that would actually happen. It’s possible it’s too late for anyone to save the ideals at the heart of college football. But college football needs to make that decision on its future soon, lest it collapse under the weight of its own scandal and corruption.

NFL Schedule: Week 4

Can someone explain to me why the Bears are 6½-point favorites over the Panthers? This is the Panthers team with the guy who captivated everyone with his offensive performances the first two weeks, right? And this is the Bears team that’s been hugely disappointing through three weeks, right? Same with the Eagles being 8½-point favorites over the Niners; I know we expected them to be that way, but not even the power rankings agree anymore.

With no votes on the poll, I’m probably not putting out the SEFL recap this week. Decided it’s not really worth it.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
(3-0) 23½-20½ (1-2) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Andrew Catalon, Steve Tasker 106 137 Bills getting respect, and they’re on the right end of the squash game for once.
#18(2-1) 18¾-20¼ #21(2-1) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 104 94 Bet you didn’t expect this to be a battle of 2-1 teams.
(2-1) 20½-24½ (2-1) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 86 128 Once again, the Texans face a huge test against a formidable top-tier team.
(3-0) 22¾-23¾ (2-1) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver 135 85 It was great seeing Romo fight off injury the past two weeks, but can he handle the resurgent Lions?
#20(2-1) 18-26½ #17(1-2) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora CMP 139 93 Are the Niners for real? Is the Dream Team little more than, well, a dream?
#22(1-2) 18¼-24¾ #19(1-2) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin USA 112 91 Bears defense hasn’t looked up to snuff… could Cam Newton go off on them?
#15(2-1) 22¼-21¼ (0-3) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan WW1 148 138 Will the Rams finally look like the team we expected them to be against the Redskins?
(2-1) 26¼-19¼ #25(1-2) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 92 136 It doesn’t get any easier for Gabbert against the vaunted Saints defense.
#T28(0-3) 20¾-19¼ (0-3) Sun 1:00 PM 712 Gus Johnson, Charles Davis, Tim Brewster 117 113 One team gets their first win of the season! The other’s a step closer to Andrew Luck.
#14(2-1) 23-21 #23(1-2) Sun 4:05 PM 713 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa USA 85 149 Could Eli go off against the woeful Cardinals defense?
#16(1-2) 22-17½ #27(1-2) Sun 4:05 PM 714 Craig Bolerjack, John Lynch WW1 93 134 Seahawks could be just what the doctor ordered for the Falcons to bounce back.
#26(1-2) 17-29½ (3-0) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms CMP 117 91 Broncos may be about to enter a lion’s den in Lambeau.
#30(0-3) 19-26 (2-1) Sun 4:15 PM 717 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 92 94 The Bolts seem to have shaken off their early-season swoons, but maybe playing teams like the Fins helps.
(2-1) 29¾-25¼ #12(2-1) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 86 113 Best game of the week you won’t be able to watch. Will the Pats be stunned by a surprise team again?
(2-1) 19-22½ (2-1) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Showdown between the two teams Pittsburgh beat en route to the Super Bowl.
#T28(0-3) 15¼-25¼ (2-1) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 Now it’s ESPN’s turn to bang its head against the wall for having a Colts game.

NFL Schedule: Week 3

After seeing how the inclusion of records looked last week, I’ve decided to include RealClearSports.com’s consensus power rankings. Also, I found out that Westwood One is not the only game in town when it comes to Sunday afternoon NFL games, and have adjusted the former “WW1?” column accordingly. It now reads “NTR”, for “National Terrestrial Radio”, with Westwood One games marked with “WW1”, Compass games marked with “CMP”, and Sports USA games marked with “USA”. Finally, I have a new poll up for the first time in over a year, asking if I should keep doing the SEFL recaps for the remainder of the season. I wanted to minimize the amount of thinking I had to do, which hasn’t been happening; I’ll play out the remainder of the season, but just writing the recaps takes up time better spent on other things, like schoolwork. The poll will run through the Week 4 games, but if “No” is leading substantially by Tuesday I won’t do a Week 3 recap.

I have a feeling the Rams will at least cover; it’s possible the Ravens and Steelers are just both lousy (though not Andrew Luck-lousy) this year. Also, can someone tell me why there’s so little gambling information on the Monday Night game, and what information there is is inconsistent? The MXS for that game is very guesstimated.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#22(1-1) 19¾-23¼ #T26(0-2) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Spero Dedes, Steve Beuerlein 136 113 Will Cam Newton’s success finally lead to a win, or will Gabbert be this week’s big rookie QB?
(2-0) 24¼-20¾ (0-2) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 135 85 Lions picked a franchise QB once and look red-hot now; could the Vikings follow suit?
#21(1-1) 18¾-21¼ #23(1-1) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora USA 139 149 Two teams looking to discover their identities.
(0-2) 19¼-21¾ (1-1) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Don Criqui, Randy Cross 117 94 Is Tony Sparano on the hot seat already?
(2-0) 30½-23½ #14(2-0) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon CMP 93 106 The Bills want to prove their start isn’t a fluke, but beating Brady and the Pats will hardly be easy.
#17(1-1) 20-28½ (1-1) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa WW1 112 91 The Dream Team starts divisional play against Eli and the Giants.
#T26(1-1) 18-24½ #18(1-1) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 92 104 Two teams successfully bouncing back from Week 1 losses.
(2-0) 24¼-28¼ (1-1) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 86 148 Texans face a huge road test against Drew Brees and the Saints.
(2-0) 22¼-19¼ #19(1-1) Sun 4:05 PM 712 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms 85 134 The Raiders have had good offensive days, but not against a defense as strong as the Jets.
(1-1) 23-19 #25(0-2) Sun 4:05 PM 713 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 92 138 Which is more of a fluke, the Ravens losing to the Titans or the NFC West faves losing to the Giants?
(0-2) 15-29½ (1-1) Sun 4:05 PM 714 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts USA 137 91 Chiefs continue their descent towards Luck while the Chargers look to recover from the Brady Experience.
(1-1) 22-23½ #16(1-1) Sun 4:15 PM 717 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin CMP 112 94 Falcons and Bucs seek to lay claim to the South, or at least top-two with the Saints.
#20(1-1) 23¼-19¾ (0-2) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 93 139 Which will stink less, the Cardinals D or the Seahawks O?
(2-0) 25-21 #12(1-1) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver WW1 86 135 If the Bears want to return to the playoffs, they’ll have to beat their Super Bowl champion rivals.
(1-1) 25-14½ #30(0-2) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Colts can’t get their offense going without Manning, and the Steelers D won’t help.
#15(2-0) 20-25* (1-1) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 Two rivals who plain don’t like each other, as Dallas tries to prove the ‘Skins start is a fluke.

Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League: Week 2 Recap

Despite having the same number of players in play, an hour into the early games Commissioner’s Favorite and Takedown Glaze had substantial leads over Worldwide Leaders and Politically Incorrect respectively. Both teams were admittedly propelled by their defenses, but RTFS had their defense in play as well. It wasn’t until after an hour of play that The SportsLine could muster a single point on the board, by which point Wisdom of Crowds had already redeemed itself for the previous week’s low-scoring performance with 34 points.

Ron Burgundy All-Stars held a four-and-a-half-point lead over College Busters, but the real close game was between Inside Information and Team Infograph. After an hour-plus, the score in that game stood: FLEA 13.5, USAT 13.3. That’s a .2 lead for Inside Information. Despite having fewer players, Inside Information looked more likely to end the early games with the lead, as USAT had their defense in play. Calvin Johnson had already had a good day with a touchdown scored. In a bad sign for Indy Tea Party, Swimsuit Issues already had a narrow lead, even though FFTB had only one more player yet to play. They had to hope the Pats defense would lock down. SI had the Ravens defense in play, but they were arguably outperforming their bonuses with an INT in the books.

By halftime, College Busters, Indy Tea Party, and Inside Information had managed to take decent-sized leads, though Team Infograph was still putting up a close fight. Ray Rice’s long touchdown catch was golden for YHOO, while Dwayne Bowe and Kenny Britt proved especially valuable for FFTB.

Worldwide Leaders could not be kept down for long, and came roaring back in the second half, thanks to Fred Jackson’s long TD run and strong performances by Mike Wallace, James Starks, and to some extent Fred Davis. ESPN had the most points of anyone with at least three still to play and a 24-point lead heading into the late games. The SportsLine would pick up the scoring but was still badly behind Wisdom of Crowds heading into the late games, where CBS hoped to catch up on the strength of having five players active, including Arian Foster, to PROS’ one. PROS ended the early games having almost matched their total Week 1 scoring. Politically Incorrect, always respectable, pulled ahead of Takedown Glaze in the second half on the back of Aaron Rodgers’ comeback against the Panthers, but would see Knowshon Moreno declared a late scratch, robbing it of up to 12 points Darren Sproles would have provided. Would it be the difference?

Ron Burgundy All-Stars retook the lead from College Busters in the second half as Cam Newton attempted to match Rodgers’ comeback and Jahvid Best capped a 57-yard, 2 TD day. Indy Tea Party pulled away to a 56-point lead as Darren McFadden ran the ball up and down the field, waiting for SI’s other players and the Pats defense. And Inside Information and Team Infograph continued matching each other stride-for-stride, ending the early games with USAT ahead by only two, and also losing Brandon Lloyd to a late scratch.

Of ESPN’s two active players, Neil Rackers scored nearly as many points as Matt Schaub by halftime of the late games, matching iffy performances by Commissioner’s Favorite’s players (Vincent Jackson had the most at 9.2 points). None of The SportsLine’s players were outscoring Owen Daniels individually, and CBS remained well behind. Team Infograph would pull away in the third quarter behind another strong performance by Tom Brady.

By the end of the late games, Jackson and Phillip Rivers had caught fire and Commissioner’s Favorite had roared into the lead, but NFL was out of players and Worldwide Leaders had a good chance with both the Falcons defense and Hakeem Nicks still to play. The SportsLine looked certain to lose with Wisdom of Crowds ahead by 17 with three players still to play and CBS only having Ahmad Bradshaw; the lead would balloon to nearly 28 after the Sunday Night game, and eventually ended CBS 69.6, PROS 96.94. Takedown Glaze roared into the lead on the back of a strong performance by Ryan Mathews, ending the contest FOX 92.02, RTFS 82.02 – the 10-point margin meaning starting Sproles would have, indeed, made the difference. Ron Burgundy All-Stars roared into a 30-point lead during the late games on the back of Andre Johnson and Frank Gore, while Indy Tea Party ended with 113.14 points, second to Commissioner’s Favorite, leaving Swimsuit Issues with 33 points to make up with three players left to play.

Michael Vick carved up the Falcons defense and Worldwide Leaders only made up four points. On the other hand, Michael Turner and the Eagles defense brought College Busters within seven and a half of Ron Burgundy All-Stars… but only KFFL had someone left to play. YHOO 103.26, KFFL 123.78. LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Macklin had such good days that Swimsuit Issues went from 33 points down to nearly 20 points ahead, with one more still to play vs. Indy Tea Party’s none, and would end the day already on top of the weekly points standings (with NFL and FFTB having no one left to play and KFFL 22 points behind) and ahead of YHOO for the overall two-week points lead. They would defeat Indy Tea Party 136.5-113.14. Finally, despite Vick Inside Information had too big a deficit to make up, especially when Tony Gonzalez had a good night as well, and that match ended FLEA 51.78, USAT 81.32.

Only two matches would have their outcome determined Monday night, and in only one case was the outcome in much question. Worldwide Leaders needed 12 points from Hakeem Nicks to beat Commissioner’s Favorite, while The SportsLine had little chance of making up a huge deficit, needing a ginormous game from Bradshaw and nothing at all from Rams kicker Josh Brown. Nicks would fall short, NFL 121.22, ESPN 117.1.

Takedown Glaze had to cut Jamaal Charles after he was knocked out for the year. Inside Information cut Derrick Ward and replaced him with the Texans defense. For Wisdom of Crowds, Owen Daniels is out and Matt Hasselbeck is in. Knowshon Moreno is out and Eric Decker is in for RTFS. (If those three, all of which don’t provide waiver wire picks for various reasons, remain in the bottom three spots in any order next week, I may have to dump the waiver wire.) Takedown Glaze brought in Dexter McCluster. Isaac Redman is in for Team Infograph and Ricky Williams is out. Brandon LaFell is in and Antonio Brown is out for The SportsLine. Braylon Edwards is out and David Nelson is in for Ron Burgundy All-Stars. Worldwide Leaders passes. Ed Dickson is in and Todd Heap is out for Indy Tea Party. Commissioner’s Favorite passes. Earl Bennett is out and Andy Dalton is in for College Busters. Finally, Swimsuit Issues nabs Nate Washington and DeMarco Murray, cutting Ryan Grant and Joseph Addai. Team Infograph also dumps Chad Johnson for Titus Young, while Takedown Glaze cuts Chris Cooley in favor of Preston Parker.

Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League: Week 1 Recap

I’ve firmed up the regular season schedule:

  1. NFL v. FLEA, PROS v. ESPN, RTFS v. CBS, KFFL v. FOX, FFTB v. YHOO, USAT v. SI
  2. ESPN v. NFL, FLEA v. USAT, SI v. FFTB, YHOO v. KFFL, FOX v. RTFS, CBS v. PROS
  3. NFL v. CBS, PROS v. FOX, RTFS v. YHOO, KFFL v. SI, FFTB v. USAT, ESPN v. FLEA
  4. NFL v. PROS, YHOO v. USAT, FOX v. FFTB, CBS v. KFFL, ESPN v. RTFS, SI v. FLEA
  5. FFTB v. NFL, USAT v. ESPN, SI v. CBS, YHOO v. FOX, FLEA v. RTFS, KFFL v. PROS
  6. NFL v. KFFL, CBS v. USAT, FOX v. SI, ESPN v. FFTB, PROS v. RTFS, YHOO v. FLEA
  7. RTFS v. NFL, KFFL v. ESPN, USAT v. FOX, FFTB v. CBS, SI v. YHOO, FLEA v. PROS
  8. NFL v. FOX, CBS v. ESPN, FLEA v. FFTB, USAT v. KFFL, SI v. RTFS, YHOO v. PROS
  9. NFL v. YHOO, ESPN v. FOX, PROS v. SI, RTFS v. USAT, KFFL v. FFTB, CBS v. FLEA
  10. SI v. NFL, YHOO v. ESPN, FOX v. CBS, FLEA v. KFFL, FFTB v. RTFS, USAT v. PROS
  11. USAT v. NFL, CBS v. YHOO, ESPN v. SI, PROS v. FFTB, RTFS v. KFFL, FOX v. FLEA
  12. v. , v. , v. , v. , v. , v. #12
  13. v. , v. , v. , v. , v. , v. #12
  14. v. , v. , v. #12, v. , v. , v.

Note that in the last three weeks, will be the team with the best win-loss record after 11 weeks, but -#12 will be picked in order of total points scored.

Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees got Politically Incorrect and Swimsuit Issues, respectively, off to a rollicking start with their offensive explosion in Thursday’s kickoff game. Brees scored more, but RTFS benefited more from the game with the winning effort by the Packers defense. But RTFS came out of the game with a relatively small lead over The SportsLine, no thanks to Greg Jennings also having a big day.

With two exceptions, the scores an hour into the first round of games could all be explained by the number of players active. But Indy Tea Party was woefully underproducing with only four points, worst among all teams, and was losing by over 30 points to the College Busters. Also, Team Infograph led Swimsuit Issues despite fewer players active, a lead that remained constant, though relatively small, thanks to a yeoman’s effort by the Bucs defense. As the Bucs allowed more points, though, SI retook the lead. SI’s Jets defense wouldn’t take the field until the Sunday Night game.

Another game where the outcome started to fall into place during the early Sunday games was Inside Information against Commissioner’s Favorite. Big days from Calvin Johnson and Michael Vick propelled FLEA to a 44-9 lead 90 minutes into the early games, arguably outperforming the five active players it had and casting doubt over whether NFL could catch up. Also by 90 minutes in, College Busters had actually already outscored Politically Incorrect and led Indy Tea Party by a whopping 60 points. At the half of the early games, Takedown Glaze led KFFL 40-28, Wisdom of Crowds led Worldwide Leaders and Swimsuit Issues led Team Infograph by 10 each, and Politically Incorrect maintained a 30-point lead over The SportsLine.

Indy Tea Party picked up more points in the second half, thanks to Kenny Britt’s big TD catch-and-run; meanwhile, the Ron Burgundy All-Stars pulled surprisingly close to Takedown Glaze in the third quarter, as Anquan Boldin and Andre Johnson caught fire, but Josh Freeman’s comeback attempt proved killer, as did (for a time) the start of the Vikings-Chargers game giving College Busters defensive bonuses, and when Fleaflicker came back from an extended outage shortly after the late games started, the scores were: FLEA 72-14 NFL; FOX 83-60 KFFL; ESPN 57-59 PROS; YHOO 86-38 FFTB; CBS 59-64 RTFS; and SI 81-51 USAT.

Worldwide Leaders had a chance to take a substantial lead in the late game with Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, and Fred Davis active, while Wisdom of Crowds only had Donovan McNabb. That they did: Nicks in particular had a big day and ESPN was the first team to end their week with 85.8 points, good for third place and a 22.5 point lead over Wisdom of Crowds with LaDainian Tomlinson still to play in the Sunday Night game. LT had a relatively pedestrian performance and the only match without Monday Night participants ended 85.7-71.86, ESPN winning. Scarily, Worldwide Leaders could have gone over 120 by starting Steve Smith of the Panthers; as it stood they wound up with the fewest points of any winner.

Cedric Benson had caught fire late to drive The SportsLine closer to Politically Incorrect, and CBS had a chance to take the lead with no RTFS players active if Ahmad Bradshaw and Vernon Davis caught fire and the Chargers’ defensive bonuses held up. That’s exactly what happened: Bradshaw had a big day and the Chargers picked off McNabb, and The SportsLine led by 2 early in the second half. But they could only increase that lead to 3.3 in the second half.

Commissioner’s Favorite needed to get out of the scoring basement with five players, including Philip Rivers and Adrian Peterson, active, despite Inside Information having three of their own. Tim Hightower’s gimme touchdown helped in that department, and Rivers also had a big day. NFL made it to 71 points by the end of the late games, only 10 behind Inside Information, who was hurt by the loss of Derrick Ward and Danny Amendola, and NFL had one more player yet to play than FLEA.

Beanie Wells also had a good day to help bring the Ron Burgundy All-Stars up to 72.88 points, needing 14.9 from the last player in the matchup to pass Takedown Glaze. One problem: that player was kicker Dan Carpenter. On Monday, he closed the final margin to 88.06-78.88, Takedown Glaze winning. College Busters and Swimsuit Issues finished the late games with huge leads over Indy Tea Party and Team Infograph, with YHOO boasting a whopping 105.5 points, nearly twenty more than the next-highest-scoring team, Takedown Glaze.

On Sunday Night, Inside Information counted on the Cowboys defense to top off their point total, while the Jets defense would pad Swimsuit Issues’ point total. Commissioner’s Favorite hoped Santonio Holmes could help them catch FLEA, while Politically Incorrect hoped Felix Jones could give them at least a temporary lead heading into Monday. Holmes had a decent day but never found the end zone, while the Cowboys defense had a stout enough performance, with 4 sacks and an INT, to pad FLEA’s lead just a little to 12 points for Reggie Bush to make up in the Monday Night game. Jones gave RTFS an 11-point lead over The SportsLine, while the Jets defense’s role in almost single-handedly causing the win caused Swimsuit Issues to move into second in total points, 15.24 points behind College Busters.

As the first Monday Night game progressed, the most interesting match shaped up to be that between Inside Information and Commissioner’s Favorite. Reggie Bush had a rather productive day, and NFL took the win on Bush’s touchdown with three and a half minutes left in the game, the final margin 92.9-89.48. Team Infograph also pulled surprisingly close to Swimsuit Issues when Tom Brady had a historic day (35.1 fantasy points), enough to shoot up into the top five, and enough for Brandon Lloyd to have a good chance to close the gap in the late game; however, he had no touchdowns and Team Infograph just barely fell short to Swimsuit Issues 107.06-100.68, the most points of any loser. The SportsLine, meanwhile, pulled well ahead of Politically Incorrect with Chad Henne having a superb day, Brandon Marshall doing well as well, and Davone Bess being underwhelming. If Arian Foster’s injury replacement Willis McGahee had 17.36 points, CBS could pass College Busters for the Week 1 points lead; however, McGahee managed only 4 yards.

The late game mattered little to the remaining two games. The SportsLine beat Politically Incorrect 119.24-87.4, and while Sebastian Janikowski’s incredible night pulled Indy Tea Party out of the points cellar, there was no beating a College Busters team with 14 more points than anyone else, and YHOO took the win 133.1-97.16. When all was said and done, Wisdom of Crowds would have the fewest points of the first week, followed by Ron Burgundy All-Stars.

KFFL had to cut done-for-the-year Nate Kaeding, but still has reach pick Dan Carpenter. Because FantasyPros doesn’t do waiver wire picks, I used a combination of Week 1 performances and Week 2 rankings to determine what they should do on the waiver wire, so Rex Grossman is in and Lance Moore is out. KFFL then nabbed Cam Newton to fill the empty spot; of their “priority additions”, Cadillac Williams and the Lions defense are already on teams and KFFL can’t add another WR without cutting one. With waiver wire order based solely on scoring, Worldwide Leaders was next, and decided not to get anything (also maxed out on WRs). Politically Incorrect will make waiver-wire decisions based solely on past performance; Jimmy Graham is gone, Scott Chandler is in. For Takedown Glaze, the Eagles’ Steve Smith is out and Devery Henderson is in. For Inside Information, Zach Miller is out and Early Doucet is in. Commissioner’s Favorite passes, while for Indy Tea Party, Austin Collie is out and Anthony Armstrong is in. Derrick Mason is out and Earnest Graham is in for Team Infograph, while Swimsuit Issues replaced Marcedes Lewis with Jacoby Jones. FLEA also replaced Kendall Hunter the Cowboys defense with the Niners defense, with Fox following by replacing the Vikings defense with the Raiders defense. FLEA also brought in Marcel Reece to replace Derrick Ward, cutting Hines Ward.

NFL Schedule: Week 2

I realized that last week’s schedule wasn’t given the Blog News tag, so… yeah, we’re doing this now. Check the Week 1 schedule for explanations. One change from last week: I’m now getting betting lines from Vegas.com, which was my intention from the start, but it wasn’t available last week. The main benefit, ultimately, is that I won’t have to sort out ties between various sources.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers WW1? SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
(0-1) 12¾-27¼ (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 713 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 139 93 Two playoff teams looking to bounce back from Week 1 losses.
(1-0) 20-23 (1-0) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 148 104 Both teams got surprise wins Week 1, but are they for real?
(1-0) 20¼-24¼ (1-0) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 91 112 Will the Cardinals defense do for Sexy Rexy what they did for Cam Newton?
(0-1 19-22 (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 104 113 McNabb looks to redeem himself for last week’s disappointing performance.
(1-0) 19¾-29¼ (1-0) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf Yes 136 85 Jags have won last three, but not against a Jets team this strong.
(1-0) 20-27 (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 712 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver 128 86 Saints looked great in a narrow losing effort. But it won’t be any easier getting past Da Bears.
(1-0) 28¼-18¼ (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora 94 117 Newton looked like a Pro Bowler last week, but the Packers aren’t the Cardinals.
(1-0) 22-16 (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 134 149 The Matt Hasselbeck era didn’t start off well, and the Ravens will be far tougher than the Jags.
(0-1) 18½-26½ (1-0) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Don Criqui, Randy Cross 137 135 After getting shellacked by the Bills, the Chiefs get a Lions team that looks like a playoff team.
(0-1) 21-18½ (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 106 92 The Kerry Collins era didn’t start well, but surely the Colts can do better against the Browns?
(0-1) 22¾-19¾ (1-0) Sun 4:05 PM 714 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 92 139 Romo seeks redemption against a team looking to stake their claim to the NFC West.
(1-0) 18-22 (0-1) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Spero Dedes, Steve Beuerlein 91 94 The Bengals try to spoil Orton’s attempt to shake off the Tebow chants.
(1-0) 23¼-30¼ (1-0) Sun 4:15 PM 717 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms 93 86 Brady won’t be able to repeat his historic performance against the Chargers defense.
(1-0) 25½-22½ (0-1) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts Yes 112 85 Texans’ quest for the playoffs is underway, and the team Brady torched should help.
(1-0) 26-23½ (0-1) Mon 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya Yes 92 93 The Dream Team makes their primetime debut as Vick returns to his old stomping grounds.
(0-1) 18¾-24¾ (0-1) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber Yes 92 93 Both teams need to recover from devastating Week 1 losses.

Cleaning up some notes on the sports television wars

So I made a big deal about the new Thursday Night Football contract coming down later this month, and it came out today that it’s probably not happening by the end of the year at least. Not that my post was completely useless, as it may well still happen in time to show up on the 2012 schedule (my guess is an announcement will come Super Bowl weekend), but it won’t be happening quite as quickly as I implied.

That came out in a press conference to announce ESPN re-upping with the NFL for the next decade, which like the PGA TOUR with CBS and NBC, was pretty much a formality, reported as early as January. It does mean, though, that combined with reported ongoing negotiations to re-up with the NFL’s other TV partners, the TNF package may be more than a two-year trial run, but may be another decade-long deal. Also, the scorecard now reflects NBC taking back the Belmont Stakes from ABC, which wasn’t announced until this past February.

3.5 4.5 2.5 .5 0

NFL Schedule: Week 1

This is a new feature I’m trying out that will undoubtedly suck up all of my time: the NFL schedule for each week, with all the information you could possibly want, including DirecTV Sunday Ticket channel numbers, announcers from Awful Announcing, and coverage maps from the506.com. (Click the network logo for the coverage map.) Teams with a golden outline hold a lineal title.

The numbers between the team logos cram a lot of gambling-related information into a small space. That is the MXS, or Median Expected Score, an amalgamation of the point spread and over/under number. The formula is: 2U+S=N, where N is the over/under number, S is the point spread, and U is the underdog’s MXS. The favorite’s MXS is simply U+S, so when you add the two together you get 2L+S.

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers WW1? SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
21½-26½ Thu 8:30 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya Yes 92 93 Let’s get back to football! Last two Super Bowl champions.
21½-19 Sun 1:00 PM 709 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 134 92 Defensive showdown between the NFC’s two best teams of the last regular season.
17¼-25¾ Sun 1:00 PM 706 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 136 137 No Manning, big problems: could this be the Texans’ year?
17-23 Sun 1:00 PM 708 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 117 91 Chiefs fans start getting the answer to the question: Was last year for real?
17½-19½ Sun 1:00 PM 707 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 149 135 Manning’s injury gives these teams hope, if they can get off on the right foot.
14½-21 Sun 1:00 PM 705 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 106 113 Will this intrastate rivalry kick off the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes?
24¼-19¾ Sun 1:00 PM 710 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 93 138 The Dream Team kicks off against the NFC West favorites.
17-19 Sun 1:00 PM 704 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms Yes 112 86 What better way to honor the 10th anniversary of 9/11 than one of the NFL’s hottest rivalries?
19½-21½ Sun 1:00 PM 711 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 128 94 People are feeling optimistic about the Lions. Will it prove well-founded?
16½-25 Sun 4:15 PM 713 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora Yes 139 93 The McNabb era starts in Minnesota, while the Chargers seek redemption.
20¼-17¼ Sun 4:15 PM 715 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver 92 86 More than an NFC East rivalry, it’s honoring the day that changed both cities forever.
15-22 Sun 4:15 PM 712 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 136 94 Fans hope new quarterbacks for both teams change their fortunes.
16-21½ Sun 4:15 PM 714 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 91 85 Harbaugh starts his coaching career against old college rival Carroll.
17¾-22¾ Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya Yes 92 93 It’s Ryan vs. Ryan as two highly-scrutinized teams square off.
26¼-19¼ Mon 7:00 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber Yes 92 93 Patriots begin their latest Super Bowl quest with a divisional showdown.
18¾-21¾ Mon 10:15 PM Brad Nessler, Trent Dilfer Yes 113 94 Close out the first week of the NFL season with an AFC West clash.

The Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League

Way back in 2007, during the very first year of Da Blog, I flirted with holding a simulated fantasy league to find out which site had the best experts, even going so far as holding a draft before the combined stress of that and counting up points by hand in Excel (good luck finding a site that will let you run every team in a league – even the one I chose I have to trick) forced me to abandon it right away. However, last year my thoughts turned towards trying again, so that’s what I’m going to do, even though other sites have sprung up to compare fantasy experts, and have gone as far as actually holding a league of the top experts.

Rosters are 16 players, with starters 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR, 1 DST, 1 K. (Maximums: 4 QB, 7 RB or WR, 3 TE, DST, or K.) Scoring is as follows, based on the general consensus of the rules of most leagues. I wound up designing the scoring rules for defensive yardage myself, because very few leagues have them by default and those that do have wildly differing philosophies. It would have been most fair to omit them entirely, but I went with realism over standards.

  • 4 points per passing TD
  • 6 points per TD (except QB passing)
  • 2 points per 2-point conversion
  • 1 point per 25 passing yards
  • 1 point per 10 running or receiving yards
  • -2 points per turnover (interceptions or lost fumbles)
  • 1 point per PAT
  • 3 points per field goal
  • 4 points per FG of 40-50 yards
  • 5 points per FG of >50 yards
  • 2 points per defensive turnover
  • 2 points per safety
  • 1 point per sack
  • 10 points for 0 points allowed
  • 7 points for <7 points allowed
  • 4 points for <14 points allowed
  • 1 point for <21 points allowed
  • 0 points for <28 points allowed
  • -1 point for <35 points allowed
  • -4 points for >35 points allowed
  • 10 points for <100 yards allowed
  • 7 points for <200 yards allowed
  • 4 points for <250 yards allowed
  • 1 point for <300 yards allowed
  • 0 points for <400 yards allowed
  • -1 point for <500 yards allowed
  • -4 points for >500 yards allowed

The way the schedule works, each team plays each other once and plays three other teams an additional time, for a total of 14 games. The team with the most overall points through 14 weeks is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs regardless of record. To ensure a balanced schedule, the schedule for weeks 12, 13, and 14 – the three additional games – will not be finalized until after Week 11. The entire schedule isn’t finalized yet. Roster moves are handled largely the same way they were going to be in 2007. The draft is being held Wednesday (I was going to do it sooner but I was waiting to see if Yahoo would have rankings that at least took into account the Chris Johnson signing), with the following first-round order; I restricted myself to sites that posted overall rankings instead of just positional rankings. Keep checking this page and my tweeter as the draft progresses.

  1. Commissioner’s Favorite (NFL.com): Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
  2. Worldwide Leaders (ESPN): Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
  3. The SportsLine (CBS): Arian Foster, RB, Texans
  4. Takedown Glaze (Fox): Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs (Note: I’m also using these very outdated rankings as the above-linked ones look too weird to be draft rankings as opposed to Week 1 rankings.)
  5. College Busters (Yahoo): Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
  6. Swimsuit Issues (SI): LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
  7. Team Infograph (USA Today): Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars
  8. Indy Tea Party (FFToolbox.com): Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders
  9. Ron Burgundy All-Stars (KFFL): Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
  10. Politically Incorrect (RealTime Fantasy Sports): Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
  11. Wisdom of Crowds (FantasyPros): Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers
  12. Inside Information (Fleaflicker): Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions (more after the jump)

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Handicapping the Thursday Night Football race

Good news: We’re not getting an 18-game schedule!

If that’s the bad news for the NFL, here’s the good news: They’re going to take Thursday Night Football full-season!

Back in 2006, the NFL surprised many observers by putting a slate of late-season Thursday night games on its own NFL Network, rebuffing offers from other cable networks. Now reports are that the NFL will soon be awarding an early-season slate of Thursday-night games, giving those networks a second chance. And with the sports television wars heating up, the timing couldn’t be better, as the NFL – somewhat unexpectedly – plays host to the second major battle of the Wars with the Olympics in the rear view, one with no true incumbent.

Naturally, all the major cable players are involved, as well as one surprising dark horse; according to reports, Turner and Comcast are the front-runners. The NFL could even hand over control of the NFL Network to the winner. Before we continue, I should mention that I doubt the NFL will sign with any network for more than two years, when their other contracts expire. That means this contract will ultimately be a “trial balloon” of sorts. That said, here are the major players, what they have to gain, what they have going against them, and what their ultimate chances are:

Turner Sports

What they’re fighting for: Turner has the major advantage of not only having cable sports experience, but even being a pre-existing NFL rightsholder, holding half the then-Sunday night package until ESPN decided they wanted the whole thing. They’ve wanted to get back into the game ever since; apparently during the 2005 negotiations, Turner had actually hired some analysts for games before striking out on all the packages. Putting NFL games on TNT would not only give them a shot at redemption, it also would be the best fit from the perspective of the uninformed casual fan wondering why the Thursday night games move to the NFL Network midseason – the NFL would shuffle off TNT just in time for the NBA season to start. Turner also has experience running a league-owned network in NBA TV. Then there’s the prestige factor; Turner would join ESPN as the only entities to have all four of the modern major sports at the same time.

What they have going against them: Turner is already established in the game, which means they don’t have as much to gain as the next contenders…

NBC/Comcast

What they’re fighting for: Simply put, nothing less than firmly establishing their position as the competitor to ESPN they so dearly want to be. You know Comcast is looking longingly at the blueprint ESPN established for their success using NFL games. They’d love to relish the sweet irony of turning that blueprint against them, especially with the ability to tie it in to the NBC Sunday Night package (and make the season-opening game on NBC a natural extention of the Thursday package). In fact, in 2005 Comcast and Versus came closest of any other entity to getting the Thursday night package before the NFL took it to the NFL Network, setting up a lengthy carriage dispute between NFLN and the nation’s largest cable operator.

There’s a meme going around that Comcast tapped themselves out of cash on their Olympic bid, but that doesn’t make much sense to me. As I’ve said before, I don’t buy that two weeks every two years will grow the soon-to-be-NBC-Sports-Network, especially since audiences, even if they hate tape delays, have grown used to watching NBC’s primetime Olympic highlights packages. For Comcast to spend so much money on the Olympics that they’d doom any effort to get another high-profile package seems like a risky all-in bet to me for their ESPN-killer hopes. And they, too, have experience running a league-owned network, even if it’s just the mtn.; NFLN could also look to the Golf Channel to see what Comcast running the show might look like.

What they have going against them: I don’t think Comcast is hurting too much for money in the short term, the NFL’s relationship with Comcast has improved since the NFLN carriage dispute, and NBC Sports Network could probably handle showing games just fine, even if it shows UFL games right now. So what would a problem be? Well, Comcast may ultimately decide that, while the NFL would be nice, it has other options to grow the NBC Sports Network… like Major League Baseball in a year or two. For reasons I’ll get to when we get closer to those negotiations, if Comcast doesn’t win this fight I would consider them the favorites to snag some MLB games, and if Comcast decides they have a better chance of beating Turner or ESPN for MLB rights than beating a crowded field for eight NFL games, they might decide to underbid now.

Fox

What they’re fighting for: Fox has made no secret of their ambitions to return big-time sports to FX. The NFL would not only fit the bill nicely, but would also tie in nicely to Fox’s existing NFL package, and NFLN would be just one more sport-specific network to join the likes of Speed, Fox Soccer Channel, BTN, and Fuel TV.

What they have going against them: Fox’s existing NFL package is all the NFC games the primetime packages don’t snag, while FX would show games from both CBS and Fox, which would be awkward. But a far bigger issue is that, according to reports, cable operators have a clause that protects them from any rate hikes for FX. That means nothing Fox adds to FX’s lineup can increase their revenue from subscriber fees, effectively reducing FX to the level of a broadcast network and preventing them from effectively competing with networks that can hike their fees to cable operators. I would expect Fox to try to change this at the soonest opportunity – whether or not they can is another matter – but until they do any serious effort to turn FX into a sports power is likely to be a nonstarter, including netting them a slate of NFL games. FX will likely have to settle for its new UFC programming to grow their sports brand, along with select college football games.

ESPN

What they’re fighting for: An existing slate of NFL games that would tie in neatly, as well as the most powerful brand in sports. Also, ESPN once floated the idea of increasing NFLN’s distribution by merging it with ESPN Classic, so they’ve flirted with taking over the network before. For the most part, though, ESPN is mostly fighting to keep this slate away from (or make it cost-prohibitive for) their competitors, especially Comcast.

What they have going against them: Besides their utter lack of motivation, ESPN has already committed to college football on Thursdays; their fall slate is already pretty crowded, though ESPN could bump college football to the Deuce. Also, while ESPN may have flirted with NFL Network before, they have never run a network owned by another entity – Longhorn Network, which is less than a week old, is wholly owned by ESPN – and neither ESPNU nor LHN quite prepares them for the challenges they’d face running the NFL Network, owned by them or not.

Spike TV

What they’re fighting for: The big five contenders in the sports TV wars represent only five of the top six biggest media conglomerates in the country. You have to imagine that Viacom – the other half of the split that produced the CBS Corporation – wants to take their own place in the wars. Since the then-National Network picked up WWE programming in 2000, the network now known as Spike TV has used first WWE and later UFC programming to goose its fortunes. Now the UFC has bailed for Fox, and Spike may feel it needs another draw. The NFL would seem to fit the bill nicely.

What they have going against them: I’ll believe that Viacom is serious about competing in the war when I see it. For now, I’ll simply point out that like Turner, Viacom doesn’t have a broadcast TV outlet (not even a potential one like the CW). Like Turner, Viacom could shack up with its former corporate sibling CBS for anything that would seem to need a broadcast outlet. Unlike Turner, Viacom has zero experience broadcasting sports – even their WWE and UFC programming has been produced by those entities themselves – other than TNN’s time showcasing the short-lived XFL, and even less experience running a league-owned network. It’s going to take a lot of doing to convince any league to shack up with someone as unproven as Spike. Comcast managed to convince the NHL to shack up with a little outfit called the Outdoor Life Network; can Spike convince a prominent league to do the same? In any case, Spike isn’t mentioned in the SportsBusiness Daily’s latest reporting on the subject, so they’re probably out of the running by now, if they ever were.

Who will ultimately come out on top? Past history backs up the notion that Comcast and Turner are the favorites, as does motivation. Both factors also suggest Comcast will come out ahead. By all accounts, Versus would have nabbed the Thursday Night Football rights in 2006 if the NFL hadn’t given them to the NFL Network, and Comcast has far more motivation as well, with nothing less than the cornerstone of a new sports empire at stake. If the soon-to-be NBC Sports Network wins this package, it will go down as a turning point in the history of sports television in America, the point that gave birth to an entity with enough firepower to challenge ESPN’s stranglehold over the sports landscape.

Back in July, Ken Fang of the Fang’s Bites blog tabbed Fox as the third favorite over ESPN, citing Fox’s motivation and ESPN’s crowded schedule. I think he underestimates the impact of FX’s inability to raise subscriber rates, as well as ESPN’s desperate desire for Comcast not to get the rights. The last thing ESPN wants is for Comcast to gain a foothold that would allow them to become a true competitor to ESPN. Unless Turner proves virtually untouchable, I would expect ESPN to stay in the race right to the end, at least trying to influence the outcome.

Comcast is the most likely to pick up eight Thursday night NFL games unless Turner and ESPN can hold them off. I don’t know if ESPN can tip the scales from Comcast to Turner, but they can certainly bite the bullet and crowd their Thursday night schedule in the early season if they value not having a lot more to worry about from Comcast for many, many years to come. Many sports fans have been hoping for some sort of real competition to ESPN. Within a month, they may have their answer.