Football

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 8

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I take back what I said about all full rankings coming in PDF form from now on. My laptop is incredibly slow at calculating the rankings. Even the super-slow school computers are faster. If I have to calculate the rankings at home, I’ll use the computer I’ve used from the start that only creates RTFs (unless I can get a bunch of programs closed, but I’m skeptical that’ll help).

After last weekend’s upsets, the national championship picture is starting to clear up. Barring upsets, there will be a national semifinal next week in primetime. Their opponent? Stanford, then either Boise State or a one-loss team. Oklahoma State and our other lineal title holders may have something to say about that, but most people expect the Big 12 teams and Oregon to lose (Kansas State potentially this weekend) and the ACC and Big East to be disrespected.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC BCS Title
8-0 LW: A Rat: .907 B Rating: 52.786 C Rating: 46.078 AP: 2 BCS: 2
Alabama showed the teams below them who’s boss with a huge blowout of Tennessee. Now they get a week to prepare for the showdown with LSU.
2 LSU SEC ’06 Boise St.
8-0 LW: A Rat: .852 B Rating: 46.800 C Rating: 41.451 AP: 1 BCS: 1
Huge win over an overrated Auburn team, but they will need the week off before the trip to Tuscaloosa.
3 Stanford P12 BCS Title
7-0 LW: A Rat: .868 B Rating: 40.987 C Rating: 34.271 AP: 4 BCS: 6
“Won’t go away easily” my ass! Blowout over the Huskies plus big upsets means the Cardinal are now in national championship position.
4 Boise State MWC BCS Title
7-0 LW: A Rat: .796 B Rating: 38.385 C Rating: 33.063 AP: 5 BCS: 4
Not the most impressive performance against Air Force. They’ll want to get their practice licks in against UNLV, because the TCU game is huge.
5 Oklahoma B12 BCS Title
6-1 LW: A Rat: .646 B Rating: 28.949 C Rating: 24.346 AP: 11 BCS: 9
Losing to mediocre Texas Tech at home certainly looks bad, but I always say never to overreact to a single loss, especially by a field goal. You thought they were that good, they can’t be that bad now.
6 Oklahoma State B12 BCS Title
7-0 LW: A Rat: .709 B Rating: 27.169 C Rating: 23.106 AP: 3 BCS: 3
I don’t think anyone really thinks Oklahoma State is really this good. But they do keep impressing with a huge win over a decent Missouri team.
7 Wisconsin B10 BCS Title
6-1 LW: A Rat: .718 B Rating: 25.048 C Rating: 20.074 AP: 12 BCS: 15
See what I said about Oklahoma, with the added element that Michigan State is substantially better than Texas Tech. Now comes a not-as-big-as-it-could-be clash with Ohio State.
8 Oregon P12 ’09 Boise St.
6-1 LW: A Rat: .652 B Rating: 20.947 C Rating: 17.981 AP: 7 BCS: 7
Impressive blowout over Colorado. But now they get progressively better opponents in the Washington schools.
9 Clemson ACC Prncton/Yale
8-0 LW: A Rat: .708 B Rating: 19.883 C Rating: 16.197 AP: 6 BCS: 5
Fairly tight game against an only-decent North Carolina team. But G-Tech is the best opponent they’ve faced so far.
10 Houston USA BCS Bowl
7-0 LW: #15 A Rat: .736 B Rating: 14.737 C Rating: 10.372 AP: 18 BCS: 17
Marshall is pretty bad, but Houston put on a show, and combine that with losses by other teams and it’s another five-spot jump for the Cougars.
11 Texas A&M B12 Big 12 Title
5-2 LW: A Rat: .483 B Rating: 12.896 C Rating: 10.275 AP: 16 BCS: 16
Big win over Iowa State, but Missouri will be substantially tougher.
12 Michigan B10 BCS Title
6-1 LW: A Rat: .637 B Rating: 12.586 C Rating: 9.728 AP: 17 BCS: 18
Drop for idle hands made worse by opponents not doing their best. Now Purdue serves as a warm-up for Iowa.
13 Penn State B10 Big 10 Title
7-1 LW: #17 A Rat: .602 B Rating: 9.118 C Rating: 7.420 AP: 21 BCS: 19
Not sure why a modest ten-point win over mediocre Northwestern results in such a big jump in the C Ratings and AP Poll – other teams losing don’t explain it all. But now to justify it against Illinois.
14 South Carolina SEC SEC Title
6-1 LW: #20 A Rat: .569 B Rating: 9.241 C Rating: 6.870 AP: 14 BCS: 13
Despite idle hands, big wins by their opponents (Vandy over Army, Kentucky over a I-AA team that doesn’t matter for A Rating purposes) send them rocketing up the ratings. Now to justify it against Tennessee.
15 Virginia Tech ACC Big 12 Title
7-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .597 B Rating: 9.078 C Rating: 6.785 AP: 15 BCS: 12
Followed the big win over Wake Forest with a blowout over BC. Now a trip to Duke ahead of an important showdown with Georgia Tech.
16 Southern Miss USA C-USA Title
6-1 LW: #27 A Rat: .600 B Rating: 8.372 C Rating: 5.403 Coaches: 25 —
Is C-USA better than you think? A blowout win over SMU have people noticing the Golden Eagles have only a single tight loss with some pretty big wins. How big could the title game be?
17 Toledo MAC MAC Title
5-3 LW: #18 A Rat: .384 B Rating: 6.961 C Rating: 5.318 — —
Big win over Miami (OH). Will a Tuesday night nationally televised win over Northern Illinois cause the pollsters to take notice?
18 Kansas State B12 2010 TCU
7-0 LW: #23 A Rat: .684 B Rating: 7.929 C Rating: 5.286 AP: 10 BCS: 8
Huge win over their rivals in their first game in the Top 25. But who wants to bet the Sooners will own them?
19 Arizona State P12 Pac-12 Title
5-2 LW: #21 A Rat: .444 B Rating: 4.848 C Rating: 4.081 AP: 23 BCS: 21
Teams losing (and opponents winning) mean the Sun Devils move up despite idle hands, and with woeful Colorado coming to the desert, they could move up substantially.
20 Notre Dame   Bowl Elgblty
4-3 LW: #12 A Rat: .337 B Rating: 5.120 C Rating: 4.003 — —
We were already rating the Golden Domers far higher than most people, and after being blown out by USC this looks all the more dubious. But when they look good they look very good, and they’ll have a chance to look good against Navy.
21 Nebraska B10 Big 10 Title
6-1 LW: A Rat: .566 B Rating: 5.801 C Rating: 3.590 AP: 13 BCS: 14
Nebraska slips substantially despite winning! But a blowout of a godawful Minnesota team doesn’t outweigh the first-loss effect on Wisconsin.
22 USC P12 Probation
6-1 LW: #35 A Rat: .542 B Rating: 4.918 C Rating: 3.099 AP: 20 SBNBlog: 21
If the Trojans are this good with nothing to play for and most of the upperclassmen having departed when the sanctions came down, imagine how good they’ll be next year! BCS or bust for the Trojans next year! Could they upset Stanford?
23 Rutgers BST Big East Title
5-2 LW: #22 A Rat: .452 B Rating: 3.290 C Rating: 2.325 — —
The Knights can’t slip too much losing by only two. If they beat a West Virginia team still ranked in the polls, it’ll more than make up for it.
24 Georgia SEC SEC Title
5-2 LW: #26 A Rat: .469 B Rating: 2.074 C Rating: 1.907 AP: 22 BCS: 22
The Bulldogs didn’t play last week, but other teams losing put them in the top 25, just in time for the World’s Largest Cocktail Party – which they have the edge in for once.
25 Arkansas SEC SEC Title
6-1 LW: #25 A Rat: .572 B Rating: 4.434 C Rating: 1.794 AP: 8 BCS: 10
Nice modest win over Ole Miss, better than some other teams did. Beat Vanderbilt to keep pace in the West.


29 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #27 TCU (was ), #30 Georgia Tech (was #19), West Virginia (was #16)

Watch List: #26 Miami (FL), #27 TCU, Florida State, Michigan State, #30 Georgia Tech, Syracuse*

Other Positive B Ratings: #35 Temple, #37 Iowa, #42 Ohio (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: West Virginia, #33 Washington, #41 Missouri, #44 Utah State, #45 Texas, #57 Northern Illinois

Bottom 10: #111 Colorado, #112 Idaho, #113 Buffalo, #114 UNLV, #115 Akron, #116 UAB, #117 Florida Atlantic, #118 Tulane, #119 Memphis, #120 New Mexico

Best game of week: Oklahoma @ Kansas State, 12:30pm PT, ESPN

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 7

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Tentative game: New England @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 5-1 v. 4-3; this is becoming one of the hottest rivalries in the AFC, but who are the Jets? Still, this is now a battle of two teams with winning records, rare for tentatives this year.
  • Protected games according to the506: Saints-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Giants-49ers (4-2 v. 5-1), Lions-Bears (5-2 v. 4-3), Texans-Bucs (4-3 v. 4-3), Steelers-Bengals (5-2 v. 4-2), Bills-Cowboys (4-2 v. 3-3).
  • Analysis: Giants-Niners is the best game, but the Niners aren’t a name team, which could kill their ability to overcome the tentative game bias – 5-2 v. 6-1 is hard to pass up, but can it overcome a 5-2 v. 4-3 tentative? Steelers-Bengals may have even more to overcome, and Lions-Bears, while an attractive NFC North matchup, can’t do better than 6-2 v. 4-3, a half-game better than the worst Pats-Jets can do.
  • Final prediction: New England Patriots @ New York Jets (no change).

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 2-4. If the not-so-Dream Team continues to be a nightmare, this has a pretty good chance to be flexed out, despite the NFC East factor.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Redskins (FOX) and Chargers-Bears (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bucs-Packers is good but lopsided, Bengals-Ravens features a team people don’t trust to be as good as 4-2, and Titans-Falcons has the worst of both worlds. Right now, the tentative is likely to stay put.

Week 12 (November 17):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-3. Time will tell if the Chiefs are about to rally from their disastrous start. It might not take much for this game to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Eagles (CBS) and Bears-Raiders (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games (Packers-Lions is an especially bad loss). Bills-Jets and Bucs-Titans are the only good options, with Bengals-Browns a dark horse and Broncos-Chargers possible based on Tim Tebow’s performance. After the protections, NBC isn’t left with very attractive matchups in terms of drawing power.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ New England
  • Prospects: It’s the Colts and the Patriots, the NFL’s biggest current rivalry! …What’s that? Peyton Manning’s injured and the Colts are 0-7 and got blown out 62-0 their last time on Sunday night, causing football to lose to another sport in the ratings for the first time in forever? Yeeeeah, this is getting flexed out unless Manning comes back before then, and even then this would have to be the very game he comes back, which probably won’t be known two weeks in advance.
  • Protected games: Jets-Redskins (CBS) and Packers-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Saints has the early lead; Bengals-Steelers, Falcons-Texans, and Chiefs-Bears are also options, and Ravens-Browns and Titans-Bills are dark horses.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and the division lead potentially on the line. A flex isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but one or both teams would have to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bills-Chargers, Raiders-Packers, Saints-Titans, Texans-Bengals. Chiefs-Jets is a dark horse, and Bears-Broncos could become an interloper if Tim Tebow does well.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: Not NBC’s biggest-name late-season matchup, but possibly the best record-wise, a battle of 4-2 teams when no other tentative has more than one team better than 4-3. Good chance to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Raiders. That’s it. Yeah, Packers-Chiefs is a dark horse, but I’d say Ravens-Chargers is keeping its spot.

Week 17 (January 1):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

NFL Schedule: Week 7

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Another parade of ties in RCS’ consensus power rankings, and the tie at in particular has me thinking they should go to an odd number of component rankings somehow to make ties harder. I knew to do so with my own similar concept. Meanwhile, I’m astounded at the Monday night over-under, which yields the lowest MXS I’ve recorded in the short time I’ve been doing this, as well as the first favorite’s MXS below 20.

Also, I’ve been thinking about the idea of local all-sports blogs for each sports city, and it’s taking all my effort to keep from starting it up myself by the end of the month…

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
(4-1) 23-21 #17(3-3) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms USA 112 93 Showdown between two heavyweights who can’t stand each other… and that’s the coaches!
#22(2-3) 19-22 (2-3) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora 113 85 Two teams trying to show that they’re for real, or at least not horrible.
#18(3-3) 22-25½ (5-1) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Dick Stockton, John Lynch WW1 134 86 Lions trying to bounce back from their first loss against a team trying to show they’re still as good as last year.
#T15(3-3) 22¼-21¼ #T11(4-2) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa CMP 135 106 One of the better games London has been exposed to… which isn’t saying much.
#T26(1-4) 20½-21½ #30(0-5) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 91 136 Who cares that both teams suck? It’s the start of the Tebow era!
#19(3-2) 20¼-22¾ #23(1-5) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 117 94 The Redskins feel people are disrespecting their 3-2 start, but Newton and the Panthers will not make it easy.
(3-3) 20¾-23¾ #T15(3-2) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 138 92 The Texans have been slipping in recent weeks, and the surprising Titans can take control of the division.
(4-2) 23½-19½ #T26(1-4) Sun 4:05 PM 711 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf USA 85 139 The Cardinals come back from their bye in time to run into the Steelers buzzsaw.
#25(2-3) 18-24 (4-2) Sun 4:05 PM 712 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts CMP 137 91 Hey, the Chiefs are on a winning streak! Can they continue it against the red-hot Raiders?
(6-0) 27¾-18¾ (1-5) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver WW1 92 86 The Christian Ponder era is underway… good luck!
(0-5) 15¾-28¼ #20(2-3) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Sam Rosen, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 94 93 With the Rams considered to be worse than the other winless teams, chances are we see Good Romo this week.
(0-6) 17-31 (4-2) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Another Colts regret for NBC, especially up against the World Series.
#T2(4-1) 18½-10½ (1-5) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 Are the Ravens the quietest possibly-second-best team in the league ever?

Bye:

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 7

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We have an interloper in the Alabama-LSU-Oklahoma oligarchy in the C Ratings. Boise State picked up right where they left off in the Mountain West, winning their first conference game big over Colorado State. It’s not the conference they thought they were joining, but for this year at least it’ll provide a formidible challenge when they face TCU. If they survive that game and run the table, who’s going to argue against them for the national championship?

Meanwhile, Kansas State has finally put every undefeated team in the Top 25, and Northern Illinois is once again in positive B Points. This week’s rankings don’t include the Sun Belt teams that played Tuesday, or the Thursday night game.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC BCS Title
7-0 LW: A Rat: .906 B Rating: 44.930 C Rating: 38.779 AP: 2 BCS: 2
Alabama owned a mediocre Ole Miss team, but other teams are creeping closer, and Tennessee is no Ole Miss.
2 LSU SEC ’06 Boise St.
7-0 LW: A Rat: .846 B Rating: 40.859 C Rating: 36.063 AP: 1 BCS: 1
Great job dispatching Tennessee. Suspending key players may be bad, but Auburn is overrated, and it seemed to work for them before.
3 Boise State MWC BCS Title
6-0 LW: A Rat: .821 B Rating: 38.907 C Rating: 33.944 AP: 5 BCS: 5
The Broncos started life in their new conference in a big way, blowing out Colorado State on the road. Mediocre Air Force and horrid UNLV will be their preparation for the TCU game.
4 Oklahoma B12 BCS Title
6-0 LW: A Rat: .803 B Rating: 35.762 C Rating: 30.918 AP: 3 BCS: 3
OU slips a spot with a concerning score-ratio game against a pretty bad Kansas team. They might want to find areas of improvement before Texas Tech comes to Norman.
5 Stanford P12 BCS Title
6-0 LW: A Rat: .873 B Rating: 29.293 C Rating: 24.267 AP: 7 BCS: 8
Big win over Wazzu makes up for last week’s slip, and they want national championship respect. But the Cougars’ rivals will not go away easily.
6 Wisconsin B10 BCS Title
6-0 LW: A Rat: .907 B Rating: 29.274 C Rating: 24.044 AP: 4 BCS: 6
Indiana’s A Rating is so horrid that even blowing them out leaves the Badgers open to Boise’s and Stanford’s hard charges. But now comes a big test against Michigan State.
7 Oklahoma State B12 BCS Title
6-0 LW: A Rat: .705 B Rating: 23.093 C Rating: 19.701 AP: 6 BCS: 4
People are getting excited over Little Brother in Stillwater, and Bedlam is going to be must-see. Some close calls suppress their ranking vis-a-vis the BCS, but they’re still a force to be reckoned with.
8 Clemson ACC Prncton/Yale
7-0 LW: A Rat: .713 B Rating: 15.960 C Rating: 12.927 AP: 7 BCS: 8
Good win over Maryland, but North Carolina is not to be underestimated, especially with G-Tech and main division challenger Wake Forest ahead.
9 Oregon P12 ’09 Boise St.
5-1 LW: #12 A Rat: .604 B Rating: 14.429 C Rating: 12.700 AP: 9 BCS: 10
Oregon is making a hard charge after the opening loss to one of the best teams in the country, and suddenly they’re the nation’s best one-loss team. Now they travel to hapless Colorado.
10 Michigan B10 BCS Title
6-1 LW: A Rat: .637 B Rating: 13.651 C Rating: 10.966 AP: 18 BCS: 18
Party time in East Lansing, and the Wolverines pick up the pieces. But they’re still a very good team, and they should bounce back against Purdue.
11 Texas A&M B12 Big 12 Title
4-2 LW: #16 A Rat: .443 B Rating: 12.292 C Rating: 10.322 AP: 17 BCS: 17
Baylor came in 4-1 and in the Top 25 both in polls and C Ratings, and A&M blew them out of the water, sending the Aggies shooting up the ratings. Now Iowa State serves as a warm-up for Missouri.
12 Notre Dame   BCS Bowl
4-2 LW: A Rat: .429 B Rating: 9.677 C Rating: 8.054 — —
A drop for idle hands, and Michigan losing doesn’t help. Will they start getting the respect they deserve after beating one-loss USC?
13 Nebraska B10 Big 10 Title
5-1 LW: #18 A Rat: .526 B Rating: 8.335 C Rating: 6.871 AP: 13 BCS: 13
Idle hands work the other way for Nebraska, as Washington gets poll respect and Ohio State beats a good Illinois team.
14 Virginia Tech ACC Big 12 Title
6-1 LW: #33 A Rat: .574 B Rating: 8.098 C Rating: 6.292 AP: 16 BCS: 12
Heading into last week V-Tech was only two spots ahead of Wake Forest, but you wouldn’t know the way they blew them out of the water. Now they’re the big Tech on campus and control their own Coastal destiny.
15 Houston USA C-USA Title
6-0 LW: #20 A Rat: .729 B Rating: 9.345 C Rating: 6.245 AP: 21 BCS: 19
Houston shoots up the rankings without even playing; losses by other teams help, but so does UTEP blowing out Tulane and East Carolina beating Memphis handily.
16 West Virginia BST Big East Title
5-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .587 B Rating: 7.884 C Rating: 5.996 AP: 11 BCS: 15
West Virginia drops for idle hands, as they prep for a showdown in the Carrier Dome.
17 Penn State B10 Big 10 Title
6-1 LW: #19 A Rat: .594 B Rating: 6.828 C Rating: 5.729 Coaches: 22 BCS: 21
Gotta do better than that against mediocre Purdue, but a win is a win. But they better get better against Northwestern before Illinois – and certainly before Nebraska – come to town.
18 Toledo MAC MAC Title
4-3 LW: #26 A Rat: .343 B Rating: 6.160 C Rating: 5.012 — —
Bowling Green is a respectable win, but this climb into the Top 25 is more about other teams losing. Two of their losses were close and on the road and the third was against Boise State. Aren’t they worthy of consideration?
19 Georgia Tech ACC ACC Title
6-1 LW: A Rat: .576 B Rating: 7.067 C Rating: 4.844 AP: 20 BCS: 22
Tight loss to a half-decent Virginia team, but come on. The biggest drop always comes with the first loss.
20 South Carolina SEC SEC Title
6-1 LW: #23 A Rat: .569 B Rating: 6.532 C Rating: 4.347 AP: 14 BCS: 14
Tight win against a mediocre Mississippi State team, but other teams outright lost. Now they catch Tennessee reeling.
21 Arizona State P12 Pac-12 Title
5-2 LW: A Rat: .444 B Rating: 4.593 C Rating: 3.969 AP: 24 Coaches: 25
And the Devils lose every single spot they gained last week after getting blown out by Oregon. They could leave the Top 25 for idle hands, but perhaps a bad Colorado team can get them back on track.
22 Rutgers BST Big East Title
5-1 LW: #15 A Rat: .555 B Rating: 4.199 C Rating: 3.266 — —
A tight pull-out against a mediocre Navy team, and they might as well not have played at all. Now Louisville will serve as prep for a huge clash with West Virginia.
23 Kansas State B12 2010 TCU
6-0 LW: #34 A Rat: .661 B Rating: 4.634 C Rating: 3.133 AP: 12 BCS: 11
You’ll have to pardon me for not believing in a team that beat FCS Eastern Kentucky by 3 and whose only win by more than 7 came against Kent State, but the Cardiac Cats do keep winning, and several teams losing finally put them in the Top 25.
24 TCU MWC MWC Title
4-2 LW: #25 A Rat: .456 B Rating: 5.126 C Rating: 3.078 — —
Other teams losing + Arkansas also on bye = actually gaining a spot. But they better blow New Mexico out of the water.
25 Arkansas SEC SEC Title
5-1 LW: A Rat: .567 B Rating: 4.536 C Rating: 2.534 AP: 10 BCS: 9
Swap places with TCU because New Mexico lost to a mediocre-to-bad Nevada team. Now they’re back in action against Ole Miss.


31 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #30 Texas (was #22), #34 Illinois (was #17), #51 Baylor (was #21)

Watch List: #26 Georgia, #27 Southern Miss, Florida State*, Missouri*, #30 Texas, Washington, Miami (FL)*, #33 Michigan State*

Other Positive B Ratings: #35 USC*, #37 Utah State, #38 Iowa*, #39 Temple*, #41 Ohio*, #42 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #34 Illinois, #36 North Carolina, #40 Tennessee, #44 Florida International, #48 Wake Forest, #51 Baylor, #61 Pittsburgh, #68 Western Michigan, #76 Duke

Bottom 10: #111 Central Michigan, #112 Buffalo, #113 Idaho, #114 Akron, #115 UNLV, #116 Florida Atlantic, #117 Tulane, #118 New Mexico, #119 UAB, #120 Memphis

Best game of week: Oklahoma State @ Missouri, 9am PT, FX

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 6

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Tentative game: New England @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 5-1 v. 3-3; this is becoming one of the hottest rivalries in the AFC, but this game could be in trouble if the Jets keep losing.
  • Protected games according to the506: Saints-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Giants-49ers, Lions-Bears, Texans-Bucs, Steelers-Bengals, Bills-Cowboys.

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 2-4. If the not-so-Dream Team continues to be a nightmare, this has a pretty good chance to be flexed out, despite the NFC East factor.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Redskins (FOX) and Chargers-Bears (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bucs-Packers and Bengals-Ravens, with Titans-Falcons a little behind.

Week 12 (November 17):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 2-3. Time will tell if the Chiefs are about to rally from their disastrous start. It might not take much for this game to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Eagles (CBS) and Bears-Raiders (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games (Packers-Lions is an especially bad loss). Bills-Jets and Bucs-Titans are the only good options, with Bengals-Browns a dark horse. After the protections, NBC isn’t left with very attractive matchups in terms of drawing power.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ New England
  • Prospects: It’s the Colts and the Patriots, the NFL’s biggest current rivalry! …What’s that? Peyton Manning’s injured and the Colts are 0-6? Yeeeeah, this is getting flexed out unless Manning comes back before then, and even then this would have to be the very game he comes back, which probably won’t be known two weeks in advance.
  • Protected games: Jets-Redskins (CBS) and Packers-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Saints has the early lead; Bengals-Steelers and Titans-Bills are also options, with Falcons-Texans lagging behind, and Ravens-Browns and Chiefs-Bears are dark horses.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good. A flex isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but one or both teams would have to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bills-Chargers, Raiders-Packers, Saints-Titans, Texans-Bengals. Chiefs-Jets is a dark horse.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: Not NBC’s biggest-name late-season matchup, but by far its best record-wise, a battle of 4-1 teams when no other tentative has more than one team better than 3-3. Good chance to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Raiders. That’s it. Yeah, Packers-Chiefs is a dark horse, but I’d say Ravens-Chargers is keeping its spot.

Week 17 (January 1):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

NFL Schedule: Week 6

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There are a lot of ties in RCS’ Consensus Power Rankings, suggesting the way this season has played out has blindsided a lot of people and we aren’t quite sure what to make of it, at least beneath the dominant Packers.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#T22(1-4) 23½-27 #18(2-3) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 135 93 Fresh off the Packer defeat, the Falcons look to get back on track, but Cam and the Panthers will not make it easy.
#21(1-4) 25-22 (3-1) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Sam Rosen, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin CMP 132 86 The Skins want to show they’re for real. The Eagles want to show they are who we thought they were.
#T31(0-4) 16¾-30¾ (5-0) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan USA 138 92 The best team in the league… against maybe the worst. How big a blowout can it get?
(1-4) 13¾-26¼ #T8(3-2) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts WW1 148 94 Not quite as lopsided as Rams-Packers, but probably pretty close.
#T6(4-1) 23½-27 (3-2) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms 112 91 Giants are humiliated for losing to Seattle, and the Bills will be far tougher.
#T8(4-1) 21¼-25¼ #T3(5-0) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 128 85 Who would have thought this would be one of the biggest matchups of the year?
#T31(0-5) 17-23½ #19(3-2) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 113 106 If I’d told you before the season this would be 0-5 vs. 3-2, which would you have thought would be which?
#T22(2-2) 19-25½ #12(3-2) Sun 4:05 PM 712 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 92 139 The Browns want people to notice they’ve started pretty good, too.
(3-2) 19-26 (3-1) Sun 4:05 PM 711 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf USA 93 134 The Texans continue their gauntlet of tough opponents.
(4-1) 27¾-21¾ #14(3-2) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora WW1 94 136 Big home test for the Bucs if they want to challenge for the NFC South.
#16(2-2) 24¾-30¾ #T3(4-1) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver CMP 137 86 Which Tony Romo will it be? With the Pats’ iffy defense, look for surprises.
#26(1-4) 19½-22 #20(2-3) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 The other half of the NFC North squares off in primetime in a game that must have looked good at the time.
#30(0-4) 18-24½ #17(2-3) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 The woeful Dolphins could prove to be just what the doctor ordered for the underperforming Jets.

Bye:

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 5

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NOTE: For my thoughts after learning the protections, read this post on Bleacher Report.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, the reason games were protected after Week 4 the first year may have been due to an identical circumstance to this year with NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. NBC appearances for all teams: NO 2, GB 3, DAL 3 (1 flexible), NYJ 3 (1 flexible), PHI 3 (1 flexible), ATL 2, PIT 3 (1 flexible), IND 3 (1 flexible), BAL 3 (1 flexible), MIN 1, CHI 2, NE 2 (both flexible), NYG 2 (both flexible), KC 1 (flexible), SD 1 (flexible). All primetime appearances for all teams: NO 4, GB 4, DAL 5 (1 flexible), NYJ 5 (1 flexible), PHI 5 (1 flexible), ATL 4, PIT 5 (1 flexible), IND 5 (1 flexible), BAL 5 (1 flexible), MIN 2, CHI 4, NE 4 (2 flexible), NYG 4 (2 flexible), KC 3 (1 flexible), SD 4 (1 flexible), MIA 2, OAK 2, DEN 2, STL 2, WAS 1, TB 2, DET 1, JAX 3, SEA 2, SF 2, CLE 1, HOU 1.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Tentative game: New England @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 4-1 v. 2-3; this is becoming one of the hottest rivalries in the AFC, but this game could be in trouble if the Jets keep losing.
  • Likely protections if after Week 4: Giants-49ers, Lions-Bears, or Saints-Falcons (FOX) and Texans-Buccaneers if anything (CBS).
  • Likely protections if after Week 5: Steelers-Bengals, Texans-Bucs, or Bills-Cowboys (CBS) and Giants-49ers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Basically, whatever games listed above the networks don’t protect.

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: 3-2 v. 1-4. If the not-so-Dream Team continues to be a nightmare, this has a pretty good chance to be flexed out, despite the NFC East factor.
  • Likely protections if after Week 4: Cowboys-Redskins or Bucs-Packers (FOX) and Chargers-Bears (CBS).
  • Likely protections if after Week 5: Bengals-Ravens (CBS) and Cowboys-Redskins or Bucs-Packers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Besides the potentially protected games, Titans-Falcons and Chargers-Bears are dark horses.

Week 12 (November 17):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
  • Prospects: 3-2 v. 2-3. Time will tell if the Chiefs are about to rally from their disastrous start. It might not take much for this game to keep its spot.
  • Likely protections if after Week 4: Bills-Jets or Patriots-Eagles (CBS) and Bucs-Titans or Bears-Raiders (FOX).
  • Likely protections if after Week 5: Patriots-Eagles or Bengals-Browns (CBS) and Bucs-Titans (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games (Packers-Lions is an especially bad loss). NBC is entirely at the mercy of the protections. If both networks go with the name teams, NBC isn’t left with very attractive matchups in terms of drawing power.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ New England
  • Prospects: It’s the Colts and the Patriots, the NFL’s biggest current rivalry! …What’s that? Peyton Manning’s injured and the Colts are 0-5? Yeeeeah, this is getting flexed out unless Manning comes back before then, and even then this would have to be the very game he comes back, which probably won’t be known two weeks in advance.
  • Likely protections if after Week 4: Jets-Redskins if anything (CBS) and Packers-Giants or Lions-Saints (FOX).
  • Likely protections if after Week 5: Bengals-Steelers, Titans-Bills, or nothing (CBS) and Packers-Giants or Lions-Saints (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Besides the potentially protected games, Ravens-Browns and Falcons-Texans. Whatever game Fox doesn’t protect has the early lead.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good. A flex isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but one or both teams would have to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Fox is likely to leave this week unprotected.
  • Likely protections if after Week 4: Bills-Chargers, Patriots-Redskins, or Raiders-Packers (CBS).
  • Likely protections if after Week 5: Same.
  • Other possible games: Saints-Titans (the only game I could see Fox protecting), Texans-Bengals, and the unprotected games.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: Not NBC’s biggest late-season matchup, but the only one with both teams over .500 (not at it). Good chance to keep its spot.
  • Likely protections if after Week 4: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Likely protections if after Week 5: Redskins-Giants or Lions-Raiders (FOX).
  • Other possible games: I’ve listed them already. Only Fox’s unprotected game is in any way exciting (unless you still believe in the Dream Team). Yeah, I’d say Ravens-Chargers is keeping its spot.

Week 17 (January 1):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 6

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Who’s the best team in college football: Alabama, LSU, or Oklahoma? It’s hard to argue with Alabama’s score ratio, with two shutouts and at least doubling the score of every opponent they’ve played, including Arkansas and Florida. Most people seem to have Oklahoma a bit behind the two SEC schools, and that might be appropriate; they’ve had two ten-point victories and Florida State hasn’t played up to expectations. It helps that the SEC teams haven’t had a bye already. Of course, one thing you can say about the BCS: if these really are the three best teams, the differences between them will be decided on the field.

All full-rating reports will be in PDF form from now on. I waited all week for an opinion on what to do with the extra spots in the table and didn’t really get one. I’m using the polls this week, but I reserve the right to change it later. As you can see by the fact the rankings match the AP Poll in the top five with only LSU and Alabama flipped at the top, the rankings are starting to fall into place. In fact, we only have one unbeaten team outside the Top 25; lineal title or no, there’s no reason to trust a K-State team that eked out a 10-7 win over FCS Eastern Kentucky, blew out godawful Kent State, then eked out wins over good-but-not-great teams with only scandal-ridden #50 Miami (FL) coming on the road. Thus, the colored area to the right of each team is now active, indicating what each team is playing for.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC BCS Title
6-0 LW: A Rat: .901 B Rating: 43.824 C Rating: 38.240 AP: 2 Coaches: 3
Another week, another big win for the Tide. Ole Miss and Tennessee will be their remaining two warm-ups for the huge clash with LSU.
2 LSU SEC ’06 Boise St.
6-0 LW: A Rat: .836 B Rating: 35.396 C Rating: 38.240 AP: 1 Coaches: 2
It didn’t matter that the punter got a TD called back for taunting the way LSU handled Florida, and now Tennessee and Auburn will be their tune-ups for the clash with Bama.
3 Oklahoma B12 BCS Title
5-0 LW: A Rat: .799 B Rating: 30.465 C Rating: 26.545 AP: 3 Coaches: 1
While people have been forgetting about the preseason favorites as they’re blinded by the SEC’s brilliance, the Sooners have actually been playing closer to expectations recently. The blowout over Texas is their best win yet.
4 Wisconsin B10 BCS Title
5-0 LW: A Rat: .900 B Rating: 25.911 C Rating: 21.614 AP: 4 Coaches: 4
Wisconsin moves into conference pole position without even playing (and without Michigan losing), thanks in part to the Huskers finally getting the first Big Ten win the Badgers denied them.
5 Boise State MWC BCS Title
5-0 LW: A Rat: .806 B Rating: 22.526 C Rating: 19.320 AP: 5 Coaches: 6
The Broncos shoot up the board after putting the hurt on Fresno and finally start Mountain West play. If they play in that league the way they played in the WAC, they’ll pick up right where they left off busting the BCS.
6 Michigan B10 BCS Title
5-0 LW: A Rat: .825 B Rating: 21.762 C Rating: 18.622 AP: 11 Coaches: 10
Northwestern was only the second opponent Michigan had allowed more than 10 points to all year, and they’re no Notre Dame. And while rival Sparty (#53) doesn’t deserve the poll respect they’re getting, neither will they be a pushover.
7 Stanford P12 BCS Title
5-0 LW: A Rat: .879 B Rating: 21.748 C Rating: 17.876 AP: 7 Coaches: 5
Welcome to the Pac-12, Buffaloes: Colorado’s A Rating is so unbelievably pathetic that despite blowing them out, the Cardinal might as well have been off this week.
8 Oklahoma State B12 BCS Title
5-0 LW: A Rat: .714 B Rating: 18.365 C Rating: 15.375 AP: 6 Coaches: 7
The Cowboys made up for the lost time of their bye week, blowing Kansas out of the water. But when it comes to football, Texas – hungry to bounce back from the Sooner loss – is no Kansas.
9 Clemson ACC Prncton/Yale
6-0 LW: A Rat: .732 B Rating: 13.756 C Rating: 11.341 AP: 8 Coaches: 8
Clemson has to blow out a Boston College team as godawful as they are, so after only beating them 36-14, they slip ahead of the clash with Maryland.
10 Notre Dame   BCS Bowl
4-2 LW: A Rat: .429 B Rating: 11.688 C Rating: 10.334 — —
Air Force is mediocre and the Domers weren’t THAT dominant, so why the jump? Well, 26 points is 26 points, and Purdue’s blowout of admittedly-horrible Minnesota helps. Now they wait a week before facing rival USC.
11 Georgia Tech ACC BCS Title
6-0 LW: A Rat: .711 B Rating: 11.198 C Rating: 8.850 AP: 12 Coaches: 12
Maryland is way too mediocre-to-bad (fashionably and on the field) for G-Tech to keep them that close. Now they have to go on the road to Virginia.
12 Oregon P12 ’09 Boise St.
4-1 LW: A Rat: .589 B Rating: 9.848 C Rating: 8.417 AP: 9 Coaches: 9
The Ducks blew out a good Cal team, more than making up for a win by only 15 over an Arizona team that’s now without their coach. But now comes a huge clash with Arizona State.
13 Arizona State P12 Pac-12 Title
5-1 LW: #21 A Rat: .559 B Rating: 7.193 C Rating: 6.109 AP: 18 Coaches: 20
Big win over a half-decent Utah team sends the Devils up the rankings, but a road trip to Eugene will be much tougher.
14 West Virginia BST Big East Title
5-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .587 B Rating: 7.558 C Rating: 5.801 AP: 13 Coaches: 16
The Mountaineers blew out a not-so-great UConn team to start conference play on the right foot. Now for an off week before a nationally-televised road trip to a Syracuse team that’s better than the Huskies.
15 Rutgers BST Big East Title
4-1 LW: #20 A Rat: .555 B Rating: 6.056 C Rating: 5.335 — —
A blowout by a good Pitt team sends the Knights up the rankings. Now to host a possible future conference mate in Navy.
16 Texas A&M B12 Big 12 Title
3-2 LW: #18 A Rat: .389 B Rating: 6.683 C Rating: 5.122 AP: 21 Coaches: 23
A&M finally finished a game for once, escaping against rival Texas Tech. Now comes a huge clash against Baylor.
17 Illinois B10 BCS Title
6-0 LW: #19 A Rat: .699 B Rating: 5.981 C Rating: 4.961 AP: 16 Coaches: 15
Blowout win over Indiana, and now a desperate Ohio State team comes to Champaign.
18 Nebraska B10 Big 10 Title
5-1 LW: #12 A Rat: .526 B Rating: 6.419 C Rating: 4.894 AP: 16 Coaches: 15
Nebraska finally gives the realigned teams a conference win against a team once the cream of the conference, but you gotta do better than that against a 3-3 team. Perhaps they will against woeful Minnesota a week from now.
19 Penn State B10 Big 10 Title
5-1 LW: #15 A Rat: .590 B Rating: 5.419 C Rating: 4.688 SBNBlog: 25 Coaches: 25
Relatively pedestrian effort, even against a good Iowa team, causes the Nittany Lions to slip. But Purdue should be easier to beat.
20 Houston USA C-USA Title
6-0 LW: A Rat: .729 B Rating: 6.793 C Rating: 4.061 AP: 25 Coaches: 22
Blowout win over East Carolina just what the doctor ordered to propel the Cougars into the Top 25 after all their other FBS games other than North Texas were close (and even UNT scored 20 more points than the Pirates).
21 Baylor B12 Big 12 Title
4-1 LW: #35 A Rat: .554 B Rating: 4.694 C Rating: 3.336 AP: 20 Coaches: 24
Blowout over a decent Iowa State team bounces the Bears back from the K-State loss and sends them rocketing into the Top 25. But Texas A&M will be dangerous.
22 Texas B12 Big 12 Title
4-1 LW: A Rat: .505 B Rating: 4.669 C Rating: 3.297 AP: 22 Coaches: 21
As good as Oklahoma is, that was absolutely embarassing. But it doesn’t get any easier with Oklahoma State coming to Austin.
23 South Carolina SEC SEC Title
5-1 LW: #17 A Rat: .566 B Rating: 5.441 C Rating: 3.270 AP: 15 Coaches: 13
Kentucky is godawful, so even blowing them out doesn’t help the Gamecocks resist other teams’ hard charges. But with Tennessee losing, is the way clear for the Fighting Spurriers to repeat in the East?
24 Arkansas* SEC SEC Title
5-1 LW: #40 A Rat: .567 B Rating: 3.803 C Rating: 2.849 AP: 10 Coaches: 11
Still don’t trust a team that lets Troy get within ten and whose only impressive win had come over New Mexico, but they proved their bona fides against Auburn. Now they slip for the bye before heading to Mississippi.
25 TCU MWC MWC Title
4-2 LW: #27 A Rat: .456 B Rating: 4.718 C Rating: 2.792 — —
Bounced back from the SMU loss with a big win over San Diego State. But not only will they slip again for the bye, they’re unlikely to get back on right away no matter how badly they beat woeful New Mexico.

35 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

2010 TCU title: #34 Kansas State (5-0), .676, 1.804, .603 (only unbeaten team not on Top 25)

Off Top 25: #30 North Carolina (was #25), Tennessee (was #16), Washington (was ), #37 Pittsburgh (was #22), #45 San Diego State (was #23)

Watch List: #26 Toledo, #27 Southern Miss*, Georgia*, Western Michigan, #30 North Carolina, Tennessee, Washington, #33 Virginia Tech, #34 Kansas State, #35 Wake Forest

Other Positive B Ratings: #36 Utah State*, #37 Pittsburgh, #39 Duke, #40 Ohio, #41 Florida International* (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #42 Iowa, #43 Florida, #45 San Diego State, #46 Texas Tech, #61 California

Bottom 10: #111 Kentucky, #112 Louisiana-Monroe, #113 UNLV, #114 New Mexico, #115 Florida Atlantic, #116 Idaho, #117 Tulane, #118 Akron, #119 UAB, #120 Memphis

Best game of week: Arizona State @ Oregon, 7:15pm PT, ESPN

NFL Schedule: Week 5

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Can someone explain something to me? Okay, so everyone knows that Cam Newton has been playing lights out and putting up a show every week. And a few people have noticed that despite the attention foisted on Newton, the Panthers are 1-3. So, Newton’s offense has been blowing up, and they’re 1-3… so why has no one noticed that the Panther defense sucks? I mean, they’re second-to-last in rushing yards allowed and eighth-worst in total points allowed, it’s not like it’s not there for everyone to see.

You know the NFL season is in full gear, because the bye weeks are descending upon us. You’d be surprised how much easier the schedule post is to put together with three fewer games.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
(3-1) 29¼-22¾ #22(1-3) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 91 134 Drew Brees shouldn’t have any problem with this defense.
(1-3) 18-20½ (0-4) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots WW1 137 94 Can the Colts do what the Chiefs just did and finally pick up their first win?
#20(1-3) 26¼-23¼ (3-1) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Sam Rosen, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 86 113 Will the not-so-Dream Team be able to pick up the pace against the Bills?
#27(1-3) 12½-22½ (3-1) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver CMP 148 85 Eli wants to bounce back. Hawks want Andrew Luck. And we wonder, how low can the Hawks’ MXS go?
#21(2-2) 17¼-19¾ #26(1-3) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 128 112 A Luck Sweepstakes side clash, but are the Bengals being disrespected after upsetting the Bills?
(3-1) 18¼-21¼ (2-2) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf USA 117 92 The Titans may be 3-1, but good luck upsetting the Steelers at Heinz Field.
#19(2-2) 21¼-27¼ (3-1) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 139 93 What does it say that Oakland started a strong 2-1, and yet the Texans are still favored big?
(1-3) 21¼-23¾ (0-4) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 138 106 A Luck Sweepstakes prelim clash. McNabb vs. Kolb: who loses their starting job a second time?
(3-1) 19¼-22¼ #15(3-1) Sun 4:05 PM 712 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa CMP 136 92 The sneaky-good clash of the day could pit two playoff teams against each other.
#14(2-2) 19¾-29¼ (3-1) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms USA 86 93 Everyone will be riveted to their set for this clash of AFC East rivals.
(3-1) 25-21 #25(1-3) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon WW1 85 94 The Chargers decided to start strong this year, and the Broncos should keep that going.
(4-0) 29¾-23¾ #16(2-2) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 First of two primetime games starring 4-0 teams sees the defending champs take on the Georgia Dome.
#T17(2-2) 21-26½ (4-0) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 For many, this will be their first look at those plucky 4-0 Lions.

Bye:

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 4

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, the reason games were protected after Week 4 the first year may have been due to an identical circumstance to this year with NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. NBC appearances for all teams: NO 2, GB 3, DAL 3 (1 flexible), NYJ 3 (1 flexible), PHI 3 (1 flexible), ATL 2, PIT 3 (1 flexible), IND 3 (1 flexible), BAL 3 (1 flexible), MIN 1, CHI 2, NE 2 (both flexible), NYG 2 (both flexible), KC 1 (flexible), SD 1 (flexible). All primetime appearances for all teams: NO 4, GB 4, DAL 5 (1 flexible), NYJ 5 (1 flexible), PHI 5 (1 flexible), ATL 4, PIT 5 (1 flexible), IND 5 (1 flexible), BAL 5 (1 flexible), MIN 2, CHI 4, NE 4 (2 flexible), NYG 4 (2 flexible), KC 3 (1 flexible), SD 4 (1 flexible), MIA 2, OAK 2, DEN 2, STL 2, WAS 1, TB 2, DET 1, JAX 3, SEA 2, SF 2, CLE 1, HOU 1.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Tentative game: New England @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 3-1 v. 2-2; this is becoming one of the hottest rivalries in the AFC, but are the Jets more like those two losses than those two wins?
  • Likely protections if after Week 4: Giants-49ers, Lions-Bears, or Saints-Falcons (FOX) and Texans-Buccaneers if anything (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Steelers-Bengals, Rams-Browns, Bills-Cowboys, and the unprotected games.

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: 3-1 v. 1-3. If the not-so-Dream Team continues to be a nightmare, this has a pretty good chance to be flexed out, despite the NFC East factor.
  • Likely protections if after Week 4: Cowboys-Redskins or Bucs-Packers (FOX) and Chargers-Bears (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bengals-Ravens and Titans-Falcons. Panthers-Lions could be a dark horse.

Week 12 (November 17):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
  • Prospects: 2-2 v. 1-3; the Chiefs are closer to Andrew Luck than last year’s division titlists. Any other week, it would be easy to find a better game.
  • Likely protections if after Week 4: Bills-Jets or Patriots-Eagles (CBS) and Bucs-Titans or Bears-Raiders (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games (Packers-Lions is an especially bad loss). Besides the potentially protected games, Bengals-Browns is a dark horse. NBC is entirely at the mercy of the protections. If both networks go with the name teams, NBC isn’t left with very attractive matchups in terms of drawing power.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ New England
  • Prospects: It’s the Colts and the Patriots, the NFL’s biggest current rivalry! …What’s that? Peyton Manning’s injured and the Colts are 0-4? Yeeeeah, this is getting flexed out unless Manning comes back before then, and even then this would have to be the very game he comes back, which probably won’t be known two weeks in advance.
  • Likely protections if after Week 4: Jets-Redskins if anything (CBS) and Packers-Giants or Lions-Saints (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Titans-Bills, Bengals-Steelers, Ravens-Browns, and Falcons-Texans. Whatever game Fox doesn’t protect has the early lead, followed by Falcons-Texans, then Titans-Bills.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good. A flex isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but one or both teams would have to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Fox is likely to leave this week unprotected.
  • Likely protections if after Week 4: Bills-Chargers, Patriots-Redskins, or Raiders-Packers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Saints-Titans (the only game I could see Fox protecting), Texans-Bengals, and the unprotected games.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: Not NBC’s biggest late-season matchup, but the only one with both teams over .500 (not at it). Good chance to keep its spot.
  • Likely protections if after Week 4: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Raiders. That’s it. Yeah, you can make a case for Panthers-Saints as a dark horse, but I’d say Ravens-Chargers is keeping its spot.

Week 17 (January 1):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.