Well, that was disappointing. Neither team is going to get the top spot coming out of it. No, Oklahoma responded to moving up to #2 by blowing out a good Texas A&M team, and as a result they, not LSU, benefit from Alabama falling out of the top spot. We’ll see if they hang onto it after a week off, but if Stanford loses and Oklahoma keeps winning I will definitely push them for a trip to the national championship game.
But let’s forget about that, and let’s forget about this week’s huge matchup between Stanford and Oregon, and let’s even forget about the mess at Penn State. I want to talk about this week’s game between Boise State and TCU.
I have another commitment, so I won’t be able to watch the game, but I would if I could and I hope you will too. And not because it’s Boise’s biggest challenge, at least for the rest of the season, towards getting another BCS bid. See, last year Boise State announced that it was leaving the WAC to join the Mountain West. This looked for all the world to create the ultimate non-BCS conference, with so many good teams there was no way anyone would stop them from becoming a full-fledged BCS conference. Utah, BYU, TCU, and Boise State? You’re going to tell me that’s any less a test of a champion than the Big East? And this was when it was looking like the Pac-10 was going to cause college football armageddon, gobbling up half the Big 12 to form the first 16-team superconference. The Mountain West was in perfect position to pick off at least some of the remainder, meaning that along with the four elite teams it already had, it would now boast some bona fide BCS conference teams on top of that. Are you going to deny BCS status to Kansas and Kansas State? Didn’t think so.
And then… the deal fell through. The Big 12 and ESPN finagled a way to keep the conference together, the Pac-10 was left with Colorado, they plucked Utah from the Mountain West to get to 12 and a championship game, and that’s when it all started going wrong. First it was Utah. Then BYU left to go independent. And then TCU announced it was leaving for the Big East, and then flipped to the Big 12 without playing a game in the Big East. Just like that, the one elite non-BCS school the Mountain West was left with was the school that thought they wouldn’t be the one elite school in the conference anymore: Boise State. The Mountain West made up for the losses by adding more WAC schools – Nevada, Fresno State – but Boise State, who thought they were joining the non-BCS conference to end all non-BCS conferences, now found themselves in a conference not much different from the WAC, and maybe worse than Conference USA. Is Air Force really that much better than Nevada?
But TCU’s move to the Big East came too late for it to take effect this season. That meant that, for one season, Boise State would come in to and TCU would remain in a depleted conference, before the Horned Frogs left for a BCS conference the following year. So this weekend’s game between Boise State and TCU is more than the biggest game of the year in the Mountain West. For all that Boise thought their move to the Mountain West would break up the BCS oligarchy, this weekend they will play the one game their move to the Mountain West amounts to.
How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.
| 1 |  Oklahoma |
B12 #1 | 2010 TCU | ||||||
| 8-1 | LW: #2 | A Rat: .674 | B Rating: | 51.093 | C Rating: | 44.248 | AP: 7 | BCS: 6 | |
| Not only have the Sooners beaten multiple good teams, they’ve blown them out. You’re telling me they’d be passed up for Boise or, heaven forbid, Alabama? | |||||||||
| 2 |  LSU |
SEC #1 | ’06 Boise St. | ||||||
| 9-0 | LW: #3 | A Rat: .813 | B Rating: | 47.166 | C Rating: | 42.202 | AP: 1 | BCS: 1 | |
| LSU is now in pole position to cruise to the BCS title game, but they better use the Western Kentucky and Mississippi games to get ready for a potentially huge clash with Arkansas. | |||||||||
| 3 |  Alabama |
SEC #2 | BCS Title | ||||||
| 8-1 | LW: #1 | A Rat: .766 | B Rating: | 42.836 | C Rating: | 37.022 | AP: 4 | BCS: 3 | |
| The Tide’s run at the top spot comes to an end along with their undefeated record. They’ll try to get back on track with a trip to Mississippi State. | |||||||||
| 4 |  Boise State |
MWC #1 | BCS Title | ||||||
| 8-0 | LW: #4 | A Rat: .794 | B Rating: | 41.152 | C Rating: | 34.650 | AP: 5 | BCS: 5 | |
| Will the Broncos players savor this weekend’s game against TCU? Or will they just play for their BCS lives? | |||||||||
| 5 |  Oklahoma State |
B12 #2 | BCS Title | ||||||
| 9-0 | LW: #6 | A Rat: .703 | B Rating: | 38.108 | C Rating: | 32.783 | AP: 2 | BCS: 2 | |
| The Cowboys put away a team that was unbeaten until the Oklahoma game and now turn their attention to the team that upended the Sooners. | |||||||||
| 6 |  Stanford |
P12 #1 | BCS Title | ||||||
| 9-0 | LW: #5 | A Rat: .823 | B Rating: | 36.517 | C Rating: | 29.278 | AP: 3 | BCS: 4 | |
| Oregon State’s A Rating is atrocious, so Stanford slips despite the big win. But the Beavers’ rivals may be the biggest test the Cardinal face all year. | |||||||||
| 7 |  Oregon |
P12 #2 | ’09 Boise State | ||||||
| 8-1 | LW: #7 | A Rat: .667 | B Rating: | 26.542 | C Rating: | 21.921 | AP: 6 | BCS: 7 | |
| Oregon could be a national championship contender if they hadn’t scheduled LSU to start the year. Against Stanford, they’ll have a chance to look like one. | |||||||||
| 8 |  Wisconsin |
B10 #1 | Big 10 Title | ||||||
| 7-2 | LW: #8 | A Rat: .619 | B Rating: | 24.689 | C Rating: | 19.046 | AP: 16 | BCS: 18 | |
| Wisconsin got back on track blowing out Purdue. Now Minnesota will serve as warm-up for a tough stretch run. | |||||||||
| 9 |  Houston |
USA #1 | BCS Bowl | ||||||
| 9-0 | LW: #9 | A Rat: .756 | B Rating: | 21.456 | C Rating: | 14.616 | AP: 11 | BCS: 11 | |
| Another week, another blowout – two, counting the Tulane game earlier this week. | |||||||||
| 10 |  Southern Miss |
USA #2 | C-USA Title | ||||||
| 8-1 | LW: #16 | A Rat: .632 | B Rating: | 15.476 | C Rating: | 11.334 | AP: 25 | BCS: 22 | |
| While the AP poll finally has no choice but to recognize the Eagles, their blowout of East Carolina propels them into the top 10 here, right behind the class of the conference. | |||||||||
| 11 |  Clemson |
ACC #1 | ACC Title | ||||||
| 8-1 | LW: #11 | A Rat: .587 | B Rating: | 12.734 | C Rating: | 9.262 | AP: 9 | BCS: 9 | |
| Idle hands offset by Michigan’s problems, but now their hopes of making the conference title game may hinge on beating Wake Forest. | |||||||||
| 12 |  Michigan |
B10 #2 | Big 10 Title | ||||||
| 7-2 | LW: #10 | A Rat: .548 | B Rating: | 11.867 | C Rating: | 8.904 | AP: 22 | BCS: 24 | |
| Iowa is a pretty respectable team and the Wolverines got within a score, but that’s still not a loss you want to take, especially with the Spartans now holding divisional pole position. | |||||||||
| 13 |  Notre Dame |
Bowl Position | |||||||
| 6-3 | LW: #19 | A Rat: .419 | B Rating: | 8.723 | C Rating: | 6.678 | — | — | |
| The Golden Domers are once again knocking on the door of the polls after a win over a good team, and now shouldn’t have any trouble with 2-7 Maryland. | |||||||||
| 14 |  Virginia Tech |
ACC #2 | ACC Title | ||||||
| 8-1 | LW: #15 | A Rat: .602 | B Rating: | 8.804 | C Rating: | 5.758 | AP: 10 | BCS: 10 | |
| Idle hands outweighed by Nebraska losing. And now that they’ve dispatched Georgia Tech, if they handle North Carolina as they should Virginia will be their only obstacle for the title game. | |||||||||
| 15 |  Texas A&M |
B12 #3 | Bowl Elgblty | ||||||
| 5-4 | LW: #17 | A Rat: .342 | B Rating: | 6.794 | C Rating: | 5.284 | — | — | |
| The Aggies get blown out by Oklahoma and somehow move up. Well, it was 16 points to the best team in the rankings. But it doesn’t get that much easier with a trip to Manhattan next. | |||||||||
| 16 |  South Carolina |
SEC #3 | SEC Title | ||||||
| 7-2 | LW: #13 | A Rat: .506 | B Rating: | 7.297 | C Rating: | 5.020 | AP: 15 | BCS: 13 | |
| The Gamecocks got blown out by the Hogs, but still have a good chance to win the division. Florida comes to town next. | |||||||||
| 17 |  Penn State |
B10 #3 | Big 10 Title | ||||||
| 8-1 | LW: #14 | A Rat: .607 | B Rating: | 7.138 | C Rating: | 4.910 | AP: 12 | BCS: 12 | |
| Joe Paterno ends his career on a 7-game winning streak and his team bowling, but lost his last bowl game, last year’s Outback Bowl against Florida – and will have never coached against Nebraska in a conference game, a tall act for Tom Bradley. | |||||||||
| 18 |  TCU |
MWC #2 | MWC Title | ||||||
| 7-2 | LW: #25 | A Rat: .555 | B Rating: | 10.132 | C Rating: | 4.866 | Coaches: 24 | — | |
| Huge win over Wyoming + losses by other teams = the Horned Frogs may have stopped shuffling on and off the rankings, just in time for the big showdown with Boise State. | |||||||||
| 19 |  Georgia |
SEC #4 | SEC Title | ||||||
| 7-2 | LW: #23 | A Rat: .523 | B Rating: | 6.062 | C Rating: | 4.189 | AP: 14 | BCS: 15 | |
| Blowout win over New Mexico State propels the Bulldogs into the top 20, and for the moment they hold pole position in the SEC East. But Auburn isn’t New Mexico State. | |||||||||
| 20 |  Nebraska |
B10 #4 | Big 10 Title | ||||||
| 7-2 | LW: #12 | A Rat: .519 | B Rating: | 6.618 | C Rating: | 4.114 | AP: 19 | BCS: 19 | |
| Aaaaand one loss to a mediocre Northwestern team later, and the Huskers have given up all the gains they made last week. Who knows what’ll happen when they play scandal-ridden Penn State? | |||||||||
| 21 |  Arkansas |
SEC #4 | SEC Title | ||||||
| 8-1 | LW: #21 | A Rat: .583 | B Rating: | 7.578 | C Rating: | 3.564 | AP: 8 | BCS: 8 | |
| Blowout win over South Carolina, but they see no benefit from it. Now Tennessee and Mississippi State will serve as warm-ups for the showdown with LSU. | |||||||||
| 22 |  Florida State |
ACC #3 | ACC Title | ||||||
| 6-3 | LW: #22 | A Rat: .487 | B Rating: | 6.208 | C Rating: | 3.390 | — | — | |
| With teams losing, Florida State stands pat despite idle hands. Now to take on their less-recently-scandal-ridden rivals. | |||||||||
| 23 |  Toledo |
MAC #1 | MAC Title | ||||||
| 5-4 | LW: #18 | A Rat: .333 | B Rating: | 4.921 | C Rating: | 3.255 | — | — | |
| Toledo will bounce back next week after another 120-point game attracting national attention. Will it attract poll votes their way? | |||||||||
| 24 |  Arizona State |
P12 #3 | Pac-12 Title | ||||||
| 6-3 | LW: #20 | A Rat: .422 | B Rating: | 4.886 | C Rating: | 2.419 | — | — | |
| That was a loss the Sun Devils could not take. They play nothing but bad-to-iffy teams the rest of the way, but it won’t make up for costing themselves a trip to the conference title game. | |||||||||
| 25 |  Texas* |
B12 #4 | Big 12 Title | ||||||
| 6-2 | LW: #33 | A Rat: .498 | B Rating: | 4.919 | C Rating: | 2.233 | AP: 21 | BCS: 16 | |
| Blowout win over Texas Tech propels the Longhorns back into the Top 25, just in time for a tough stretch that starts with a road trip to Missouri. | |||||||||
28 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)
Princeton-Yale Title: #27 Georgia Tech (7-2), .482, 3.251, .258
Off Top 25: #26 USC (was #24)
Watch List: #26 USC, #27 Georgia Tech, #28 Miami (FL), #29 Cincinnati*, #30 Rutgers
Other Positive B Ratings: #32 Iowa, #38 Ohio (*=Newly Positive)
No Longer Positive: #35 West Virginia
Bottom 10: #111 Kansas, #112 Buffalo, #113 UNLV, #114 Colorado, #115 Akron, #116 Florida Atlantic, #117 UAB, #118 Tulane, #119 Memphis, #120 New Mexico
Best game of week: Oregon @ Stanford, 5pm PT, ABC