Morgan Wick

Catching up on the sports television wars

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I stopped doing my Sports TV Wars posts in an attempt to reserve all my blogging time for football posts, so let’s not wait any longer to catch up on the developments from the last two months.

The World Cup bidding ended in a double upset, making the Wars far more interesting: Fox stealing the World Cup from ESPN (and indirectly NBC) and Telemundo stealing the Spanish language rights from Univision. I had thought Fox’s lack of MLS coverage, the main motivating factor behind their bid, would ultimately kill it because of FIFA’s desire for the winner to go all out to promote the sport in the US. I also thought NBC still had more motivation to grow Versus and establish their soccer brand. Instead, Fox sent a strong message that they are not to be ignored. I would expect most non-broadcast World Cup games to air on FX; the main value for Fox Soccer Channel will be all the lesser tournaments they now hold the rights to, filling the spring and summer programming time MLS left behind. Time will tell if this presages an effort to steal the MLS contract out from under both ESPN and NBC in a few years.

I was also surprised Telemundo even went ahead with a bid without corporate sibling NBC picking up English language rights, but apparently it may have been the other way around. (Which shouldn’t be surprising, considering Telemundo paid $100 million more than Fox.)

Also:

  • The Tennis Channel extended their rights agreement with the WTA Tour through 2016. ESPN3 reached an agreement with the WTA in the same deal. I’m not sure whether to count that half-and-half between Tennis Channel and ESPN or all Tennis Channel, but I’m going to do the latter for now.
  • Nearly a year after announcing it was dropping the “College” from its name, CBS Sports Network has finally picked up a non-college contract! Sure, it’s with super-tiny Major League Lacrosse, but still!
  • We then had a slow period through the rest of November and into December until just the other day, when ESPN extended its agreement with the NCAA for its non-men’s basketball championships, swiping some lesser women’s championships from CBS Sports Network and making me pine even more wistfully for what might have been had ESPN trumped CBS and Turner for March Madness.

Yes, I know I’m ignoring a far greater prize that was just awarded. But despite being essentially a formality, it’s a deal that’s far too big not to deserve its own post, for reasons that have nothing to do with who won them. More on that later.

Sport-Specific Networks
5 4.5 3.5 1.5 0 1.5

NFL Schedule: Week 15

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Much better slate of games this week, and this goes up just in time for the not-so-good Thursday night game.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#25(4-9) 14¼-27¾ (8-5) Thu 8:20 PM Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan WW1 92 93 "You’re down by 20 in the fantasy semis!" "MJD was the only starter on either one of our teams that played Thursday night."
(7-6) 27-20 (4-9) Sat 8:20 PM Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan WW1 92 93 It’s almost incredible how bad the Bucs have gotten, and the Cowboys need a bounce-back.
#15(7-6) 23¼-16¾ (2-11) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 91 138 Most of America will see this game. Not the most inspiring first game of a doubleheader in the world.
(4-9) 19½-26 (10-3) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Ron Pitts, Charles Davis 136 113 TJ Yates should continue to manage the game admirably against the porous Panther defense.
#19(6-7) 16¼-19¾ (7-6) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan CMP 139 93 Might the Seahawks prove they’re legitimate playoff contenders with a win over the Bears?
#27(4-9) 19¾-26¼ #12(7-6) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver USA 134 94 If the Skins can pull off the upset, it’ll be very unlikely the Giants-Cowboys rematch won’t be for the division.
#14(7-6) 23¾-17¼ (0-13) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 112 128 The Titans got an early Christmas present for their hopes to keep up in the wild card.
#22(4-9) 20½-20½ #23(5-8) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 85 104 Can the Dolphins’ hard charge finally pull them out of the cellar over the freefalling Bills?
(10-3) 28¾-22¼ #30(2-11) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Dick Stockton, John Lynch WW1 92 106 AP might be coming back! Too bad it’ll be against one of the best teams in the league.
(13-0) 30-16 #26(5-8) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 86 137 Will it matter who the Chiefs put out at quarterback against the Packers?
(8-5) 24½-23½ (7-6) Sun 4:05 PM 712 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin CMP 135 92 Two teams desperately seeking to make it in the playoffs.
(4-9) 15¼-21¾ #20(6-7) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 91 93 The Hawks have gotten more attention for their attempt to make the playoffs, but the Cards have done the same and should continue.
(10-3) 19½-26½ (8-5) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms WW1 86 94 Tom Brady and Tim Tebow square off in the game at the heart of last week’s network tug-of-war.
(8-5) 20½-23½ #21(5-8) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon USA 85 132 The Jets have become a clear in the division and solid playoff contender, so why are they dogs to the not-so-Dream Team?
(10-3) 23½-21 #18(6-7) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Actually a tighter spread than the game NBC actually wanted, but the Bolts face a major obstacle to playoff contention.
(10-3) 18¼-21¼ (10-3) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 The Monday Night slump ends in a big way with a showdown between two teams fighting for first-round byes.

Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League: Playoff Preview

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Despite a rather pathetic number of total points scored, Ron Burgundy All-Stars managed to take advantage of a surprisingly weak week from Worldwide Leaders to lock up its playoff spot, finishing a four-game season-ending winning streak, while College Busters rode the second-best performance of the final week to steal the last playoff spot from The SportsLine. They join ESPN and the league’s dominant team, Swimsuit Issues, in the playoffs. SI has been riding the back of a superior draft strategy to a record two games better than ESPN or KFFL. Meanwhile, Commissioner’s Favorite managed to edge Inside Information to sneak into the NIT, helped by a weak week from Politically Incorrect; they’ll play The SportsLine in the first round, while Team Infograph takes on Inside Information. Indy Tea Party v. Wisdom of Crowds and Politically Incorrect v. Takedown Glaze rounds out the ninth-place playoffs.

Worldwide Leaders’ strong suit is at wide receiver, where they have no fewer than three of the top six wideouts in the league, plus the second-best tight end in Jimmy Graham. But their roster might not cut it in real football, with a questionable quarterback situation (Vince Young and Alex Smith) to throw to those receivers, and while they’ve taken advantage of Chris Johnson’s resurgence in recent weeks the addition of Chris Ivory on the waiver wire this week brings them up to only three healthy running backs. The Cowboys’ defense is also a potential weak spot, putting up -6 points in their game against the Giants. ESPN immediately has a rematch with a team that just beat them, Ron Burgundy All-Stars. While their quarterback situation is solid in Cam Newton and they boast a balanced running corps and a top-notch receiver in Victor Cruz, Andre Johnson’s injury has really hurt and the team has been scrambling for a second wideout.

Swimsuit Issues lucked into having the best player in the entire league at three positions: running back (LeSean McCoy), tight end (Rob Gronkowski), and defense (Ravens). Drew Brees isn’t too shabby a pick at quarterback, either. But despite DeMarco Murray’s injury bringing them down to two running backs on roster, McCoy and Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, they added another wideout, Demaryius Thomas, to replace Murray. That gives them the maximum of seven, of which only Antonio Brown is averaging more than seven points a game. Kicker might also be considered a weak spot, although Mike Nugent put up 15 points last week. College Busters’ strong suit is in the run game, with two of the top ten running backs, as well as a good quarterback in Matt Stafford. The problem is that Jabar Gaffney is their only wide receiver in the top 40 at the position, and while they have good choices at tight end, kicker, and to some extent defense, it’s not quite on the level of the other playoff teams.

I’m bringing back the weekly recaps for this week, focusing solely on the playoff games and neither of the consolation brackets, though I may touch on what happens there.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 14

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (6-7)
WEST
48-5		 510-3
7-6
EAST
310-3		 68-5
8-5
NORTH
210-3		 7-6
10-3 7-6
SOUTH
110-3		 7-6
CLINCHED
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (6-7)
EAST
47-6		 58-5
7-6
SOUTH
310-3		 68-5
8-5
WEST
210-3		 7-6
CLINCHED 7-6
NORTH
113-0
CLINCHED
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Lions-Packers, Chargers-Raiders. Tiebreakers eliminate Titans-Texans and Ravens-Bengals.
  • Chances for Cowboys-Giants: 80 percent. Here are the scenarios for this game not to be picked: 1) One team loses their next two games and the other team wins their next two games. 2) The Cowboys beat the Bucs tonight, but lose to the Eagles next week while the Giants win their next two, as the Giants would hold the common-games tiebreaker even with a loss to the Cowboys in that situation. 3) and this is a maybe, considering the division winner doesn’t even have a good enough record for the wild card at the moment and the paucity of other options: the loser of the game still has a chance to make the playoffs. Any other scenario, and this game is for the NFC East crown with the loser likely out of the playoffs, and that would be by far the most TV-friendly game NBC could hope for. Those other scenarios are very possible, but the return match is looking very likely for a return to NBC.
  • Chances for Lions-Packers: 10 percent. The Pack have already locked up the division, so a) they would have to be gunning for 16-0, b) preferably the Lions wouldn’t be fighting for a playoff spot or at least their game wouldn’t have an impact on other teams’ playoff hopes even if they’re knocked out by the end of the day, and c) preferably Cowboys-Giants runs into one of those conditions that make it irrelevant. What saves it is that if situation c) happens, this is pretty likely to be the best game available.
  • Chances for Chargers-Raiders: 10 percent. What makes this game a long shot is that neither team is in the playoffs at the moment, but if the Broncos collapse this could luck into being an AFC West title game, and while the Jets and preferably Titans and Bengals would need to collapse it could conceivably be for the wild card as well. If the Broncos lose their next two, and the Chargers and Raiders win their next two, and Cowboys-Giants is irrelevant, and (maybe) the Packers lose one of their next two, this game is getting flexed in because the Chargers’ divisional record would trump the Raiders, and if necessary, their head-to-head record would trump the Raiders and Broncos. But that’s a lot of ifs, so if Cowboys-Giants becomes irrelevant NBC may well find itself stuck, especially if the Packers aren’t 15-0.

Tarquin, you magnificent bastard, I read your book!

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(From The Order of the Stick. Click for full-sized negotiations.)

Rich finally proved a forum theory wrong for once… sort of.

Quite a few people speculated that Tarquin knew something about the Gates, and while theories about Tarquin and Nale working in collusion had died down considerably, I myself was still toying with them. Both theories look like they’ve been pretty much shot down… with regard to anything that happened before this strip, that is.

When last we talked about OOTS, Tarquin revealed that he didn’t actually know anything about Girard, but still gave the OOTS a lead toward his gate – a lead his late ex-wife had let slip, and that she was planning to follow up on, shortly before her death. The OOTS figured that her source was likely a disguised Sabine, and that Nale killed her when she was no longer useful – despite the fact that, when speaking of Penelope’s death earlier, Tarquin used phrasing that someone less dense than Elan would figure suggested he himself was the culprit.

If Tarquin did kill her, and if this clue was the reason for that, it might have been the result of jealousy and not wanting her to return to her ex-husband, or it may have been that he sensed the importance of what she said and wanted to keep her from spilling more beans. That means that, in all likelihood, if Tarquin killed her it was likely after he learned that Nale was afoot.

Interestingly, Tarquin implies in this strip that he only knew of Nale’s presence after Penelope let slip her clue, which was only “a few weeks ago”, although it seems apparent that Zz’dtri had been present for longer (his elf-ambassador disguise is shown as being present when Penelope lets slip her clue in the original strip), and Nale had earlier told Elan that he had been here for “months“. I don’t see how Tarquin could have drawn the connection between what Penelope said and Nale’s presence if he knew Nale was there the whole time, which lends more credence to the notion that Nale killed her either when she outlived her usefulness or to keep from tipping off Tarquin to his presence – although the notion that Tarquin only recently learned of Nale’s presence seems more credible to me. (The two aren’t mutually exclusive, of course; though it’s unlikely, Tarquin could be telling the truth when he implies that he only learned of Nale’s presence in the last few strips.)

Why did Tarquin keep Elan around through the festival? Partly to make sure they were still around for it, rather than run off the instant they got their information or upon finding out this wasn’t the Draketooth they were looking for, partly to use the festival to draw out Nale, but maybe we should also consider why Tarquin said in the previous strip, “it is in our own best interest that they succeed.” Keep in mind, when he says this he knows nothing about the Gates or about Xykon, but he does know that Nale probably won’t be there when they get there, he knows that they are chasing “some cliched scenery-chewing villain bent on world conquest“, and we can reasonably assume that he has some inkling that he might want to chase off after them (especially since “cliched scenery-chewing villain bent on world conquest” is a pretty good description of Tarquin himself).

Everything Tarquin has done since we’ve first met him, then, has likely been aiming towards several goals: draw out Nale (doubtless engineering “Roy v. Thog” to help with this), weaken the teams of both of his sons, learn enough about the OOTS to properly incorporate them into his plans, send the OOTS on their way with enough time to stop the other cliched villain, find out what he can about what both teams are doing from a source likely to fold when he threatens him (he may have initially thought Elan stood a chance at qualifying until he found out how much of a Pollyanna he is), and maybe some other plots I can’t even fathom because I’m not the diabolical mastermind Tarquin or Rich are. Now that that’s been completed, it seems we have now officially filled in one of the “nine sides” going after the Gates (and Nale, like Xykon, presumably doesn’t know that the Snarl is pretty much worthless for conquest)… although it’s worth leaving open the possibility that Nale and Tarquin will make up and form one side.

Predictions for the National Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2012

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The National Baseball Hall of Fame’s selections are performed by members of the Baseball Writer’s Association of America who have been members for at least 10 years.

A six-person Screening Committee has selected a list of players that have been eligible for less than 15 years to be included on the ballot. A player must have played for 10 years and spent 5 years out of baseball before they can be considered for induction into the Hall of Fame. Players that last played in the 2006 season will be eligible for induction in 2012.

The BBWAA members will submit their ballots before December 31, and any player named on 75% of the ballots will be selected for induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. No more than ten players may be named on any ballot.

My prediction for the National Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2012 is:

Barry Larkin, Reds

I take two weeks off and already I’m completely rusty with these webcomic posts.

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(From MS Paint Adventures: Homestuck. Click for full-sized nanowatch.)

I stopped reading Homestuck for the past two weeks while my computer was down. As my posting prowess in the interim should suffice to show, this was not a result of my inability to post, but rather an inability to couple my Homestuck-reading with another, related project. I still shouldn’t be posting; I have too much to do to wrap up the quarter at school.

In the interim, the post-Scratch session has gotten weeeeeird.

It’s become apparent that the effects of the Scratch, for whatever reason, are not limited to simply switching the places of the kids and guardians. Elements of the trolls’ universe are seeping in, and not just the “thirteenth troll”. There are the lusii on Jake’s island, and there’s Lalonde’s repeated references to “wiggling day” in her last conversation with Jake. And the two characters we haven’t gotten proper introductions to seem to have taken the lead; they seem to know a lot more about the session they’re entering than Jane and Jake, even though the latter two have gotten plenty of information from the “thirteenth troll”, to the point of dictating the order of entry.

It seems rather odd that Lalonde and Strider would know so much about the game that Jane and Jake don’t. Couple that with Lalonde’s aforementioned “wriggling day” reference, and it’s easy to wonder whether they’re entirely what they seem – which would make Lalonde’s suspicion of Betty Crocker’s nature rather suspect.

Oh yeah, and then there’s the part where Jane just freaking exploded.

I imagine that, when this happened, all sorts of questions ran through the fandom’s heads, questions like how the story could continue with the equivalent of John dead (after Jake’s death had been foreshadowed in Jane’s dreams). As we’ve heard, Jane has been the subject of assassination attempts before, so she could conceivably survive this one. But the impression I’ve gotten from the latest interlude is that this entire post-Scratch session may well have been a red herring, allowing Hussie to toy with the fans with various bits of “fan-canon”, only to serve as a long-winded introduction to “Hussiebot” and his schtick.

That schtick, if we are to take this panel at face value, may well involve every piece of misfortune that has befallen this story so far. If Hussiebot is, somehow, the invisible hand behind every major death in the story, truly Andrew Hussie’s “evil twin”, then perhaps he is the true villain of the story, more supreme even than Noir, Scratch, maybe even Lord English – if he doesn’t have some sort of tight-knit connection with English somehow.

I won’t be able to remark on whatever happens next with Hussiebot, John, and Jade until Sunday at the earliest, leaving open the possibility that there will be some sort of major development on Saturday that will be immediately followed up on and leave any reaction I might have in the dust. It’s not entirely out of the question that the universe we just spent nearly a month getting acquainted with will still have some impact on the story, but I do have to admit: it is refreshing to get back to the main plot again.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 13

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 12 (November 27):

  • Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Selected game: Detroit @ New Orleans.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Selected game: NY Giants @ Dallas.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Selected game: Baltimore @ San Diego. This one was announced substantially later than normal, indeed later than the 12-day window the rules allow, thanks to CBS actually fighting to keep Pats-Broncos, with Robert Kraft (who’s a landlord for a CBS-owned restaurant) taking their side. Why CBS’s opinions should have any relevance whatsoever when the NFL is supposed to make the decisions to support NBC’s package is beyond me. This is why we have the protection system; CBS doesn’t get to decide after Week 13 “oh, we’d like to keep this game too.” While there are extenuating circumstances here (the NFL moved a normally-CBS Broncos-Vikings game to Fox this past week, and all involved networks are in the midst of contract renegotiations), this may presage a tweak of the flex schedule rules in the next contract. I fully expected the game to keep its spot anyway once the Chargers won, because it meant the Chargers weren’t so godawful as to overrule the tentative game bias (that’s why Lions-Raiders didn’t get flexed in either), so it also shows how desperate for Tebow NBC is. Everyone looks bad all the way around.

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (5-7)
WEST
47-5		 59-3
7-5
NORTH
39-3		 67-5
9-3
EAST
29-3		 7-5
7-5 7-5
SOUTH
19-3		 7-5
7-5
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (5-7)
EAST
47-5		 57-5
6-6
SOUTH
39-3		 67-5
7-5
WEST
210-2		 7-5
CLINCHED 6-6
NORTH
112-0
CLINCHED
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Titans-Texans, Lions-Packers, Ravens-Bengals. The AFC West, AFC East, and NFC South just don’t pair up right.

NFL Schedule: Week 14

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Thanks to Tebow-Kraftgate, the Flex Schedule Watch is coming sometime Thursday. This week isn’t a particularly attractive slate of games either (just look at all the huge point spreads), and I’m rushing to get something important done. And that’s on top of the bad taste the way the college football season ended left in my mouth. Bad vibes all the way around.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
(4-8) 12½-26½ (9-3) Thu 8:20 PM Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan WW1 92 93 Not a good sign when your struggling team goes Ravens-Steelers back-to-back.
#26(4-8) 19¼-18¼ #30(3-9) Sun 1:00 PM 712 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 136 117 Can you believe the Bucs were playoff contenders not that long ago?
(5-7) 13¾-22¾ (7-5) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts CMP 137 93 Can Kyle Orton repeat his Soldier Field magic at the Met?
(9-3) 17½-20½ #15(7-5) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon USA 86 104 The Texans seem to be doing okay with T.J. Yates. Will that continue against the Bengals?
(9-3) 28-20 #27(4-8) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 91 134 Will getting scared by the worst team in the league cause the Patriots to play with fire against the Skins?
#T9(7-5) 25¼-22¾ #25(4-8) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora 112 125 Hey, Cam Newton has a winning streak! But can it continue against a potential playoff team?
#23(4-8) 21-24 #18(4-8) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 132 113 Two teams going in very opposite directions.
(9-3) 26-22½ #14(7-5) Sun 1:00 PM 713 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver WW1 94 128 The Titans are scratching and clawing for a playoff spot… good luck getting it against the Saints.
(0-12) 12½-28½ (9-3) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 106 85 The Colts showed signs of life against the Patriots, but the Ravens defense won’t be any easier.
(2-10) 20¾-28¾ #12(7-5) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 138 92 Maybe the Vikings won’t solve the Lions’ penalty problem, but they will make it matter less.
(7-5) 16¼-19¾ (7-5) Sun 4:05 PM 715 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa CMP 135 93 Tebowmania is reaching a fever pitch, but will it continue against a hungry Bears defense?
(10-2) 21¾-17¾ #21(5-7) Sun 4:05 PM 714 Dick Stockton, John Lynch USA 92 139 The Cardinals might be a long shot for the playoffs, but it’ll be difficult getting past the Niners.
#22(5-7) 20¼-27¼ #20(5-7) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots WW1 91 85 The Chargers are going on their late-season charge, while the Bills’ season is entering a tailspin.
(7-5) 20½-31½ (12-0) Sun 4:15 PM 705 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms 94 86 Good luck defending your division lead against the Tebow onslaught playing the Packers.
(6-6) 22¾-26¼ #T9(7-5) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 First of two for NFC East supremacy.
(2-10) 17½-22 #19(5-7) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 Rematch of last year’s NFC West title game with substantially less importance this time around.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 15 Picks

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Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: At one point this game was the only one of NBC’s tentatives involving two teams above .500. Might the Chargers’ mid-season swoon be putting this one in flex jeopardy? There aren’t many alternatives, but…
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Lions (7-5)-Raiders (7-5), Patriots (9-3)-Broncos (7-5).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: The Chargers will be desperately defending the tentative tonight.
  • Analysis: Given the tentative game bias I think this game is still fairly safe if the Chargers are 5-7, but if they lose again to fall to 4-8? Why would NBC and the NFL keep a lopsided 9-3 v. 4-8 clash with two games each involving two teams at at least 7-5? As I said last week, with the Broncos winning again there’s no reason not to go with the Tom Brady-Tim Tebow clash, and the Lions and Raiders losing only helps in that regard. If you’d told me two months ago that Ravens-Chargers being flexed out for Patriots-Broncos was a very real possibility, I’d have said you were crazy.
  • Final prediction: Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers (if the Chargers win); New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (if the Chargers lose).