Football

2009 Golden Bowl Tournament Belated Selection Announcement

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Welcome to the third annual Selection Show Announcement for the simulated Golden Bowl Tournament – your chance to see what a playoff would be like. If you want a playoff in college football, especially if it was handled by the NCAA, it’ll probably take the form here. Here are the parameters of the tournament:

  • 11 teams are selected from the Conference Champions of all conferences
  • 5 more teams are selected from an at-large pool consisting of all other teams
  • First and second round games on campus sites; semifinals at any two of the Sugar Bowl, Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl, and Capital One Bowl, determined by regional interest (in actuality, it would rotate between the Sugar, Rose, Orange, and either Cotton or Cap One); the National Championship to be held at the Rose Bowl

The conference champions with auto bids are Alabama, Texas, Cincinnati, TCU, Boise State, Ohio State, Georgia Tech, Oregon, East Carolina, Central Michigan, and Troy. Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Iowa, Florida, and LSU have been selected as at-large teams.

Good luck to all our teams, especially our Number 1 seed, Alabama.

Octofinal matchups (technically played last weekend):

Troy (Sun Belt champion) v. Alabama (SEC champion)
Alabama gets the top seed (and it wasn’t even close) despite an atrocious out-of-conference schedule outside the V-Tech game. Troy has become the Sun Belt’s dominant team, going undefeated in conference, but while they won’t have to leave the state, they do get a second straight 16 seed and will have to try and find a way to get past a defense that was tops in the nation in points allowed and to stop this year’s real-life Heisman winner. (Not in the Golden Bowl-verse, since the Heisman ceremony obviously couldn’t be the same weekend many of the contenders would be playing.)

#15 East Carolina (C-USA champion) v. Cincinnati (Big East champion)
Read on to find out why East Carolina doesn’t get a rematch of last year’s game against Texas. Instead they must find a way to stop Cincinnati’s high-powered offense. This game is played days after Brian Kelly is announced as the next head coach of Notre Dame; with such a theoretically easy first-round opponent, does he bail on the team just days before the game? It’s probably impossible to simulate.

#14 Central Michigan (MAC champion) v. Florida (at-large)
Despite losing the SEC Championship Game Florida still gets a cupcake in the form of a team that went unbeaten in conference, same as Alabama. But they also get star quarterback Dan LeFevour, who has done much to turn Central Michigan into a perennial MAC power. But he hasn’t faced a defense as all-around strong as Florida, or had to outplay Tim Tebow.

Boise State (WAC champion) v. Georgia Tech (ACC champion)
Every year, the ACC gets a number of high-RPI teams, teams you wouldn’t normally think of as being that good. Two years ago Virginia Tech was the seed, last year Georgia Tech got the last at-large (and outseeded the conference champion), and this year the ACC gets two at-larges and G-Tech outseeds Texas, if barely. Boise State shouldn’t be too upset at getting the unlucky number 13 seed that denotes “worst good team”, meaning there’s no chance of a game on the blue turf, because I placed them where they are mostly so as to avoid an all-unbeaten first round matchup, postponing a Texas showdown to the quarterfinals. G-Tech’s triple option had the second-best running attack in the country, but Boise State was tops in the nation in overall points per game, so expect a very exciting, high-scoring contest.

#12 Ohio State (Big Ten champion) v. Texas (Big 12 champion)
The Big 12 had a down year, with its second-highest RPI team being Oklahoma State, and Texas’ strength of schedule was hurt accordingly. Ohio State is forced into the bottom two “good team” seeds by Oregon falling to the 8-9 game, seeded below Iowa, helped by bad losses (USC was #37 in the RPI), a questionable out-of-conference schedule, and a nonexistent road resume outside Penn State. The result: a replay of last year’s real-life Fiesta Bowl, and of a regular season series in the two prior years, against the team in the nation in scoring. It’s also a showdown of two quarterback studs in Colt McCoy and Terrell Pryor, where the key will be which one can get past the other team’s top-five defense.

Virginia Tech (at-large) v. TCU (Mountain West champion)
Honestly, the seeding process for seeds 6-13 was such a disaster I’m ignoring this year’s results for comparison purposes in future years. My brain was burned out from constantly chasing school deadlines all quarter and a lot of the time I could barely concentrate while doing the work, and I think my comparison criteria changed as I went along because LSU was the last at-large in the field but definitely isn’t the lowest-seeded at-large. A lot of the seeding from 4-13 was done to fit my bracketing criteria, namely, postponing conference rematches as late as possible (for example, LSU can’t be the 11) and Big Ten-Pac-10 champions meet in the Rose Bowl, more than anything else. It doesn’t help that this year is one of the biggest arguments against my system I’ve yet seen; without major upsets, Florida is the only real deserving at-large (and based on the BCS standings, the only change in the at-larges would be Miami (FL) beating Penn State for the last spot – yet I still didn’t find the resumes of Oregon, Ohio State, and Boise State strong enough for first-round home games) and they greatly reduced the importance of the SEC championship game by still getting a top-3 seed. Anyway, TCU is a rare non-BCS school that got where they are with defense, allowing fewer yards than anyone (and the second-fewest rushing yards), yet still managed to rack up stats on offense. V-Tech’s best hope: their own passing defense, and Beamer Ball.

LSU (at-large) v. Iowa (at-large)
Iowa will have home field advantage and a top-notch pass defense. If Les Miles’ squad can knock them off, it’ll be a major chip on the shoulder of SEC backers.

Oregon (Pac-10 champion) v. Miami (FL) (at-large)
Some Oregon and Pac-10 backers might bitterly suggest I took the advice of fictional Pete Carroll (who might have continued the streak in the Golden Bowl-verse) and placed the game in the warm-weather climate at the expense of a potentially once-in-a-decade chance at a tournament game in Autzen Stadium (the Dolphins played in Jacksonville last weekend, so Dolphin Land Shark Stadium was free). Maybe, or maybe the Hurricanes didn’t lose to Stanford (RPI #50), beat G-Tech even if at home, and beat more than one team in the RPI top 50 on the road. The Ducks’ high-powered offense, led by Jeremiah Masoli and potentially further helped by LeGarrette Blount, will still be a handful for the Hurricanes to stop.

The half of the bracket containing the 1 seed will play in the Rose Bowl for the semifinal; the half of the bracket containing the 2 seed will play in the Sugar Bowl, meaning if seeds hold (except for Texas knocking off Georgia Tech), both semifinals won’t need to be simulated because they’ll reflect real bowls at the same sites. First-round results from Whatifsports.com coming later today.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 13

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First, apologies for last week’s Flex Schedule Watch not being posted on Bleacher Report. Suffice to say, it’s a long story and my Twitter followers got the gist of it.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 17, CBS 21; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 20, CBS 21.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ Chicago.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Selected game: Minnesota @ Arizona.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Selected game: Minnesota @ Carolina. See here for why a game involving two small markets that’s this lopsided was kept.

Week 16 (December 27)

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
  • Prospects: Lopsided at 8-4 v. 3-9, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
  • Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles, at 8-4 v. 8-4, and Jags-Patriots, at 7-5 v. 7-5.
  • Analysis: Normally we would expect Broncos-Eagles to be the favorite with Jags-Patriots involving a team too obscure in the Jags even if things break down right. Two things work against it: First, Cowboys-Redskins is still the NFL’s biggest rivalry. Second, picking Broncos-Ravens moves from a Fox game to a CBS game, for the penultimate week of the season, which could force the selection of a Fox game Week 17. Right now, Fox has the better games anyway, but Week 17 is so dependent on circumstances it’s unpredictable even after Week 15.  But the killer could be the Eagles becoming maxed out on NBC appearances, preventing NBC from getting a potentially very valuable Fox game Week 17: Cowboys-Eagles.
  • Final prediction: Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (no change).

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

  • AFC East: Patriots lead, Dolphins and Jets a game back, Bills another two back. New England plays Houston, the Jets play Cincinnati, and Miami plays Pittsburgh.
  • AFC North: Bengals lead, Ravens and Steelers three games back. The Bengals play the Jets, while the Steelers play the Dolphins and Baltimore plays Oakland. Browns out.
  • AFC South: Colts clinched.
  • AFC West: Chargers lead, Broncos a game back, Chiefs and Raiders out. The Broncos play the Chiefs while the Chargers play the Redskins.
  • AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, the Broncos and Jags (who play the Browns) would get the nod, with the Dolphins, Jets, Ravens, and Steelers a game back. The Titans and Texans are waiting in the wings; the Titans play the Seahawks. Bengals-Jets and Texans-Patriots the main AFC contenders, though Dolphins-Steelers is appealing as well.
  • NFC East: Cowboys and Eagles tied for lead, Giants a game back, Redskins out. Cowboys and Eagles play each other, while the Giants play the Vikings.
  • NFC North: Vikings lead by 2 games over Packers. The Vikings play the Giants while the Packers play the Cardinals.
  • NFC South: Saints clinched.
  • NFC West: Cardinals lead by 3 over 49ers and Seahawks. Arizona plays Green Bay, while the Niners play the Rams and the Seahawks play the Titans.
  • NFC Wild Card: The Packers and Cowboys-Eagles loser would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Giants a game back and the Falcons, who play the Bucs, waiting in the wings. The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles, Giants-Vikings, and possibly Packers-Cardinals, but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to primetime, so we’ll see how the rest of the season plays out.

Who SHOULD Be Going to Which Bowls?

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The bowls if selections were based on my C Ratings. TCU is in the C Ratings; teams in parenthesis among the BCS bowls are the teams that would be selected with Alabama still going to the national championship game. Realistically Central Florida is going to the St. Petersburg Bowl (creating a USF-UCF showdown the regular season somehow missed) and Southern Miss is probably going to the New Orleans Bowl because of proximity. Notre Dame ranks ahead of UCLA, but I picked UCLA partly because Notre Dame opted out of the bowls and partly because Notre Dame would have a rematch with Nevada if they were selected. Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Louisiana-Monroe, and Louisiana-Lafayette, all 6-6 teams, are left out. All times Eastern.

New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, NM

MWC /4

WAC

December 19

  

Wyoming

Fresno State

2:30

ESPN

  

St. Petersburg Bowl
St. Petersburg, FL

BE /SB

C-USA

December 19

  

South Florida

Southern Miss

8 PM

ESPN

  

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, LA

C-USA

Sun Belt Ch.

December 20

  

Central Florida

Troy

8 PM

ESPN

  

Maaco Bowl Las Vegas
Las Vegas, NV

MWC

Pac-10 /5

December 22

  

Utah

Arizona

8 PM

ESPN

  

Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA

MWC

Pac-10 /WAC

December 23

  

BYU

California

8 PM

ESPN

  

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Honolulu, HI

Hawaii/WAC

C-USA

December 24

  

Idaho

East Carolina

8 PM

ESPN

  

Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl
Detroit, MI

Big 10 *

MAC

December 26

  

Minnesota

Central Michigan

1 PM

ESPN

  

Meineke Car Care Bowl
Charlotte, NC

ACC /6/7

Big East

December 26

  

BC/FSU

West Virginia

4:30

ESPN

  

Emerald Bowl
San Francisco, CA

ACC /6/7

Pac-10 /5

December 26

  

BC/FSU

USC

8:30

ESPN

  

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN

ACC /6/7

SEC /7

December 27

  

Bowling Green

Kentucky

8 PM

ESPN

  

Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA

Big 12

SEC /SB

December 28

  

Iowa State

South Carolina

5 PM

ESPN2

  

EagleBank Bowl
Washington, DC

ACC /MAC

Army/C-USA

December 29

  

Northern Illinois

Army/Marshall

4:30

ESPN

  

Champs Sports Bowl
Orlando, FL

ACC

Big 10

December 29

  

North Carolina

Wisconsin

8 PM

ESPN

  

Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl
Boise, ID

MWC

WAC

December 30

  

UCLA

Nevada

4:30

ESPN

  

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA

Big 12

Pac-10

December 30

  

Oklahoma

Stanford

8 PM

ESPN

  

Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, TX

C-USA

MWC /4

December 31

  

SMU

Air Force

Noon

ESPN

  

Brut Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX

B12 /BE

Pac-10

December 31

  

Oklahoma State

Oregon State

2 PM

CBS

  

Texas Bowl
Houston, TX

B12 /USA

Navy/C-USA

December 31

  

Kansas State

Navy

3:30

ESPN

  

Insight Bowl
Tempe, AZ

Big 12

Big 10

December 31

  

Missouri

Michigan State

6 PM

NFL Net

  

Chick-fil-A Bowl
Atlanta, GA

ACC

SEC

December 31

  

Miami (FL)

Mississippi

7:30

ESPN

  

Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL

Big 10

SEC /4 (East)

January 1

  

Iowa

Tennessee

11 AM

ESPN

  

Konica Minolta Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL

ACC

B12 /BE

January 1

  

Clemson

Pittsburgh

1 PM

CBS

  

Capitol One Bowl
Orlando, FL

Big 10 *

SEC *

January 1

  

Penn State

LSU

1 PM

ABC

  

Rose Bowl Game pres. By Citi
Pasadena, CA

Big 10 /BCS

Pac-10 /BCS

January 1

  

Ohio State

Oregon

5 PM

ABC

  

Allstate Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA

SEC /BCS

BCS

January 1

  

Alabama (TCU)

Virginia Tech

8:30

FOX

  

International Bowl
Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Big East

MAC

January 2

  

Connecticut

Ohio

Noon

ESPN2

  

Papajohns.com Bowl
Birmingham, AL

BE /SB

SEC /SB

January 2

  

Rutgers

Georgia

2 PM

ESPN

  

AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic
Arlington, TX

Big 12

SEC /4 (West)

January 2

  

Nebraska

Arkansas

2 PM

FOX

  

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN

C-USA

SEC /7

January 2

  

Houston

Auburn

5:30

ESPN

  

Valero Energy Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX

Big 12 /5

Big 10 *

January 2

  

Texas Tech

Northwestern

9 PM

ESPN

  

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ

Big 12 /BCS

BCS

January 4

  

Boise State

Cincinnati

8 PM

FOX

  

FedEx Orange Bowl
Miami Gardens, FL

ACC /BCS

BCS

January 5

  

Georgia Tech

Florida

8 PM

FOX

  

GMAC Bowl
Mobile, AL

ACC

MAC

January 6

  

Middle Tenn. St.

Temple

7 PM

ESPN

  

BCS National Championship Game
Pasadena, CA

BCS

BCS

January 7

  

Texas

TCU (Alabama)

8 PM

ABC

  

College Football Schedule – Week 14

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Alright, so we had a few weeks of weird posts there and skipped last week, but we are back on the road… just in time for the weakest college football week of the year. (Blame my sickness, and the finals crunch, for things being this late.) In a weird twist, every BCS conference except one has an effective title game this week… and the Big Ten had theirs a few weeks back, meaning the only two conferences in all of FBS not to have games that were considered effective title games at the time are the Mountain West and Sun Belt.

Honestly, the events of the last few weeks and missing last week have me thinking about whether or not I should keep doing the schedule. To be honest, it’s always been a bit of wankery so I can see my college football rankings next to each game (often as though they were on a ticker on some sports network), as well as see the connections between the rankings, the game, the TV, and the announcing teams. But no one has ever cared about the schedule or even the rankings, and while the schedule is never as time-consuming as the rankings, it’s still inconvenient as a piece of work I have to do in fall quarter but not the other quarters. So I’m starting a new Da Blog Poll asking you whether the schedule should stay, go, or whatever. The poll will stay up until the start of August, one of the longest polls I’ve ever done.

All times Eastern.

TOP 25 GAMES

Nebraska

v.

Texas

8 PM

ABC

Brent Musberger, Kirk Herbstreit, Lisa Salters

Florida*

v.

Alabama

4 PM

CBS

Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson, Tracy Wolfson

New Mexico State

@

Boise State

3 PM

KTVB

Mark Johnson, Tom Scott, Justin Corr

Cincinnati

@

Pittsburgh

Noon

ABC

Sean McDonough, Matt Millen, Holly Rowe

#22 Oregon State

@

Oregon

9 PM TH

ESPN

Chris Fowler, Craig James,
Jesse Palmer, Erin Andrews

#19 Georgia Tech

v.

#20 Clemson

8 PM

ESPN

Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, Erin Andrews

South Florida

@

Connecticut

8 PM

ESPN2

Mark Jones, Bob Davie

WATCHLIST AND OTHER POSITIVE B POINT TEAMS

Wisconsin

@

Hawaii

8 PT

ESPN2

Terry Gannon, David Norrie

West Virginia

@

Rutgers

Noon

ESPN

Dave Pasch, Bob Griese, Chris Spielman

Arizona

@

USC

3:30

ABC

Mike Patrick, Craig James, Heather Cox

Houston

@

East Carolina

Noon

ESPN2

Ron Franklin, Ed Cunningham

Central Michigan

v.

Ohio

8 PM FR

ESPN2

Joe Tessitore, Rod Gilmore

    LINEAL TITLES

California*

@

Washington

6:30

CSN CA+
FSN NW
FCS

Barry Tompkins, Mike Pawlaski (CSN CA)
Tom Glasgow, Mack Strong,
Jason Stiles, Jen Mueller (FSN NW)

THIS WEEK’S OTHER HD GAMES

Fresno State

@

Illinois

12:30

BTN

Wayne Larrivee, Chris Martin, Charissa Thompson

WAC

San Jose State

@

Louisiana Tech

2 PM

ESPN+

Trey Bender, Jay Taylor

SUN BELT

Arkansas State

@

Western Kentucky

7 PM TH

CSS/CST

Todd Kalas, Derek Rackley

Florida Atlantic

@

Florida International

7 PM

CSS/CST

Todd Kalas, Derek Rackley

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 12

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 17, CBS 21; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 20, CBS 21.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ Chicago.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Selected game: Minnesota @ Arizona.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
  • Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 10-1 and the Panthers 4-7. NBC is already worshipping at the Favre altar Week 13, against a team that is actually winning, not to mention the Giants Week 17 if that game has playoff implications.
  • Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Two good protected game choices mean that NBC can only select from games involving other teams with losing records. Bears-Ravens is out. Falcons-Jets is 6-5 v. 5-6, while 49ers-Eagles might be the most palatable at 7-4 v. 5-6 (but 5-6 is only two back in the NFC West). Dolphins-Titans is 5-6 v. 5-6 but may be the best of the bunch, with the Titans on fire.
  • Analysis: Given how good and otherwise appealing the Vikings are, and the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex, Vikings-Panthers may keep its spot yet; the main points against it are lopsidedness, the size of the markets, and the Panthers falling out of the playoff chase. But even if the Panthers keep losing, and one of the 5-6 teams wins, I don’t think there’s a compelling case that one of the other games is better for TV than Favremania.
  • Final prediction: Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers (no change).

Week 16 (December 27)

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
  • Prospects: Lopsided at 8-3 v. 3-8, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
  • Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles, a battle of one-game-back teams at 7-4, and Jags-Patriots, at 7-4 v. 6-5. They may make appealing cases for the flex, but are they enough to sweep the NFL off its feet?

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

  • AFC East: Patriots lead, Dolphins and Jets two back, Bills another game back. New England plays Houston, the Jets play Cincinnati, Miami plays Pittsburgh and the Bills play the Colts.
  • AFC North: Bengals lead, Ravens and Steelers two games back. The Bengals play the Jets, while the Steelers play the Dolphins and Baltimore plays Oakland. Browns out.
  • AFC South: Colts clinched (Jags lose common games tiebreaker).
  • AFC West: Chargers lead, Broncos a game back, Chiefs and Raiders out on tiebreakers. The Broncos play the Chiefs while the Chargers play the Redskins.
  • AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, the Broncos and either the Jags, Ravens, or Steelers would get the nod, with the Dolphins, Jets, Titans, and Texans a game back. The Jags play the Browns; the Titans play the Seahawks. The Bills are waiting in the wings. Bengals-Jets and Texans-Patriots the main AFC contenders, though Dolphins-Steelers is appealing as well.
  • NFC East: Cowboys lead, Eagles a game back, Giants another one, Redskins hanging on tiebreakers. Cowboys and Eagles play each other, while the Giants play the Vikings.
  • NFC North: Vikings lead by 3 games over Packers with the Bears out. The Vikings play the Giants while the Packers play the Cardinals and the Bears play the Lions.
  • NFC South: Saints lead, Falcons only hanging on by division tiebreaker. The Saints and Panthers play each other, as do the Falcons and Bucs.
  • NFC West: Cardinals lead by 3 over 49ers with the Seahawks a game behind that. Arizona plays Green Bay, while the Niners play the Rams and the Seahawks play the Titans.
  • NFC Wild Card: The Packers and Eagles would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Giants and Falcons a game back and the Niners waiting in the wings. The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles, Giants-Vikings, and possibly Packers-Cardinals, but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to primetime, so we’ll see how the rest of the season plays out.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 14 Picks

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Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and while it doesn’t currently have the NFC East lead on the line it’s still a battle of playoff contenders. Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot – the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to 7-4 v. 6-5. However, there are strong flex contenders…
  • Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Bengals (8-3)-Vikings (10-1), Broncos (7-4)-Colts (11-0), Saints (10-0)-Falcons (6-5), and Jags (6-5)-Dolphins (5-6).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: The prospects of Saints-Falcons depends on whether the Saints are still unbeaten. After tonight, that’s probably the Saints’ best chance for a loss.
  • Analysis: The Broncos got back on track to stay ahead of the Falcons and the Colts are still unbeaten, but picking them would shut NBC out of the Colts the rest of the year, although that’s not as much of a problem as it sounds given the only half-decent team the Colts face the rest of the way is already scheduled for NFL Network. With the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings looks mighty compelling with both teams winning and appears to be the current favorite (but it would probably mean three straight weeks of Favremania and limit NBC’s ability to flex the Vikings in again later). The Giants’ loss makes a flex much more likely, and the NFL can’t go wrong with either Broncos-Colts or Bengals-Vikings.
  • Final prediction: Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts.
  • Actual selection: Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (no change). Not terribly surprising, given the problems with the other games and the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex, but still a bit less than what NBC could have gotten.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 11

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 17, CBS 21; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 20, CBS 21.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ Chicago.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Selected game: Minnesota @ Arizona.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and while it doesn’t currently have the NFC East lead on the line it’s still a battle of playoff contenders. Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot – the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to 6-4 v. 6-4. However, there are strong flex contenders…
  • Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons all remain very strong contenders. Jags-Dolphins worthy of note but not likely to go anywhere.
  • Analysis: With the Broncos at 6-4 and no longer leading the division, you can pretty much eliminate Broncos-Colts if the Colts lose, and even if the Colts win, picking them would shut NBC out of the Colts the rest of the year, although that’s not as much of a problem as it sounds given the only half-decent team the Colts face the rest of the way is already scheduled for NFL Network. With the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings at 7-3 v. 9-1 looks mighty compelling and appears to be the current favorite (but it would probably mean three straight weeks of Favremania and limit NBC’s ability to flex the Vikings in again later), and Saints-Falcons has the same undefeated factor as the Colts (but the Falcons are still worse than the Broncos). And then there’s the existing tentative game. For Saints-Falcons to even have a shot it needs both teams to win and the Broncos (or maybe Colts) to lose. If the Eagles and Giants both win I would favor it keeping the spot given the problems with the other games and the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex; if the Broncos and Colts both win it becomes difficult to argue against. Otherwise, and even in those situations, Bengals-Vikings looks mighty compelling – unless either team loses…

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
  • Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 9-1 and the Panthers 4-6. NBC is already worshipping at the Favre altar Week 13 and possibly Week 14, against teams that are actually winning, not to mention the Giants Week 17 if that game has playoff implications.
  • Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Two good protected game choices mean that NBC can only select from games involving other teams with losing records. Falcons-Jets, Bears-Ravens, and sudden dark horse Dolphins-Titans are all 5-5 v. 4-6, while 49ers-Eagles is a bit better (at the cost of lopsidedness) at 6-4 v. 4-6. Given how good and otherwise appealing the Vikings are, and the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex, Vikings-Cardinals may keep its spot yet; the main point against it is lopsidedness, especially since a 4-6 team is far from out of the playoff picture, especially in the NFC (although that race may have tightened – see below).

Week 16 (December 27)

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
  • Prospects: Lopsided at 7-3 v. 3-7, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
  • Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles and Jags-Patriots, both involving nothing but teams at 6-4 or, in the case of the Pats, better. They (as well as dark horse battle of 5-5 teams Texans-Dolphins) may make appealing cases for the flex, but are they enough to sweep the NFL off its feet?

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

  • AFC East: Patriots lead, Dolphins two back, Jets another game back, Bills another game back. New England plays Houston, the Jets play Cincinnati, Miami plays Pittsburgh and the Bills play the Colts.
  • AFC North: Bengals lead, Steelers a game back, Ravens waiting in the wings. The Bengals play the Jets, while the Steelers play the Dolphins and Baltimore plays Oakland. Browns would have to resort to tiebreakers I’m not ready to look up yet.
  • AFC South: Colts running away with it; Jags a full four back, while the Titans are down to tiebreakers. The Colts play Buffalo while the Texans play New England and the Jags play the Browns.
  • AFC West: Chargers lead, Broncos a game back, Chiefs and Raiders four back. The Broncos play the Chiefs while the Chargers play the Redskins.
  • AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, any two of the Broncos, Jags, and Steelers would get the nod, with the Dolphins, Texans, and Ravens a game back. The Titans and Jets are waiting in the wings; the Titans play the Seahawks. Bengals-Jets and Texans-Patriots the main AFC contenders, though Dolphins-Steelers is appealing as well.
  • NFC East: Cowboys lead, Eagles and Giants a game back, Redskins mathematically in it. Cowboys and Eagles play each other, while the Giants play the Vikings.
  • NFC North: Vikings lead by 3 games over Packers with the Bears two behind that. The Vikings play the Giants while the Packers play the Cardinals and the Bears play the Lions.
  • NFC South: Saints lead by 5 over Falcons, with the Panthers a game behind that. The Saints and Panthers play each other, as do the Falcons and Bucs.
  • NFC West: Cardinals lead by 3 over 49ers with the Seahawks a game behind that and the Rams hanging on by a tiebreaker. Arizona plays Green Bay, while the Niners play the Rams and the Seahawks play the Titans.
  • NFC Wild Card: Any two of the Eagles, Giants, and Packers would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Falcons a game back and the Bears, Panthers, and Niners waiting in the wings, giving Panthers-Saints dark-horse appeal. The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles, Giants-Vikings, and possibly Packers-Cardinals, but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to primetime, so we’ll see how the rest of the season plays out.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 13 Picks

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Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Miami
  • Prospects: 7-3 v. 5-5. Still lopsided.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Eagles (6-4)-Falcons (5-5), Vikings (9-1)-Cardinals (7-3), and Jags (6-4)-Texans (5-4).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: Texans can move to 6-4, but…
  • Analysis: …I said last week that any game would need a perfect storm to happen to steal the flex away from Vikings-Cardinals, and the Cards won, so Favremania it is.
  • Final prediction: Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals.
  • Current situation: No announcement yet, which could mean Jags-Texans has a shot after all, or it could mean the NFL is being insane and sticking with Pats-Dolphins.

College Football Schedule – Week 12

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All times Eastern.

TOP 25 GAMES
Kansas @ Texas 8 PM ABC Ron Franklin, Ed Cunningham
TCU @ Wyoming 2 PM mtn. Dan Gutowsky, Blaine Fowler, Natalie Vickers
Florida International @ Florida 12:30 Gameplan Larry Vettel, Nat Moore, Steve Babik
Chattanooga @ Alabama Noon SEC Net Doug Bell, Chris Doering
Boise State @ Utah State 9:30 FR ESPN2 Joe Tessitore, Rod Gilmore
Ohio State @ Michigan Noon ABC Sean McDonough, Matt Millen, Holly Rowe
Oregon @ Arizona 8 PM ABC Brent Musberger, Kirk Herbstreit, Lisa Salters
NC State @ Virginia Tech 3:30 ESPNU Todd Harris, Charles Arbuckle
Penn State @ Michigan State 3:30 ABC/ESPN
HD ABC only		 Mike Patrick, Craig James, Heather Cox
#12 Oklahoma @ #23 Texas Tech 12:30 FSN Joel Meyers, Gary Reasons, Jim Knox
Minnesota @ Iowa Noon ESPN Dave Pasch, Bob Griese, Chris Spielman
Virginia @ #15 Clemson 3:30 ABC/ESPN Bob Wischusen, Brian Griese
LSU @ #22 Mississippi 3:30 CBS Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson, Tracy Wolfson
Kansas State @ Nebraska 7:30 ESPN Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, Erin Andrews
Colorado 28-31 #18 Oklahoma State 7:30 TH ESPN Chris Fowler, Craig James,
Jesse Palmer, Erin Andrews
California @ #19 Stanford 7:30 VS. Ron Thulin, Kelly Stouffer, Lewis Johnson
#20 Rutgers @ Syracuse 3:30 ESPN360  
Mississippi State @ #21 Arkansas Noon SEC Net Dave Neal, Andre Ware, Cara Capuano
Connecticut @ Notre Dame 2:30 NBC Tom Hammond, Pat Haden, Alex Flanagan
#25 Oregon State @ Washington State 5 PM    
WATCHLIST AND OTHER POSITIVE B POINT TEAMS
Air Force @ BYU 3:30 CBS CS Tom Hart, Aaron Taylor
Duke @ Miami (FL) Noon ESPNU Clay Matvick, David Diaz-Infante
Wisconsin @ Northwestern 3:30 BTN Wayne Larrivee, Chris Martin, Charissa Thompson
San Diego State @ Utah 4 PM VS. Tim Neverett, Glenn Parker, Lindsay Soto
Memphis @ Houston 1 PM CSS Matt Stewart, Chuck Oliver, Allison Williams
Kent State @ Temple 1 PM CSD.com  
Northern Illinois @ Ohio 2 PM CSD.com  
THIS WEEK’S OTHER HD GAMES
Buffalo 42-17 Miami (OH) 6 PM WE ESPNU Dari Nowkhah, Tom Luginbill
Central Michigan 35-3 Ball State 8 PM WE ESPN2 Dave Lamont, Trent Dilfer
Akron @ Bowling Green 5:30 FR ESPNU Kevin Negandhi, Jon Berger
North Carolina @ Boston College Noon ESPN2 Pam Ward, Ray Bentley
Maryland @ Florida State Noon Raycom Tim Brant, Rick Walker, Mike Hogewood
Purdue @ Indiana 3:30 BTN Craig Coshun, Anthony Herron, Mark Campbell
Arizona State @ UCLA 4 PM FSN Barry Tompkins, Petros Papadakis, Michael Eaves
Colorado State @ New Mexico 6 PM mtn. James Bates, Todd Christensen, Keenan McCardell
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee 7 PM ESPNU Eric Collins, Brock Huard
Tulsa @ Southern Miss 7:30 CBS CS Dave Ryan, Akbar Gbaja-Biamila
Kentucky @ Georgia 7:30 ESPN2 Mark Jones, Bob Davie
Nevada @ New Mexico State 7 PT ESPNU Terry Gannon, David Norrie
BOWL SUBDIVISION
Eastern Michigan @ Toledo 7 PM FR CSD.com  
Louisville @ South Florida Noon B.E. Net Mike Gleason, John Congemi, Quint Kessenich
Tulane @ UCF 2 PM BH Sports Drew Fellios, Mark Royals, Dave Baumann
Iowa State @ Missouri 2 PM    
UAB @ East Carolina 3:30 MASN Patrick Kinas, Billy Weaver, Brian Meador
UTEP @ Rice 3:30 CBSCS XXL  
Baylor @ Texas A&M 3:30    
Army @ North Texas 4 PM CSD.com  
Florida Atlantic @ Troy 4 PM CSS/CST Todd Kalas, Derek Rackley
Arkansas State @ Middle Tenn. St. 4:30 Gameplan Chip Walters, Kelly Holcomb
SMU @ Marshall 4:30 CBSCS XXL  
Louisiana Tech @ Fresno State 5 PM    
Louisiana-Monroe @ Louisiana-Lafayette 7 PM CSD.com  
Hawaii @ San Jose State 8 PM Gameplan Bill Leahey, Russell Yamaoha

2009 College Football Rankings – Week 11

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Remember 2004? We had five undefeated teams going into the bowls. Utah became the first BCS buster, but Auburn was the only team people were crying about not making the title game. We’re headed for five undefeated teams again, but boy, have times changed.

For one, people are talking about Boise State not being jilted for a BCS bowl this time, something that has now happened twice. What’s more, a stumble by Texas or the eventual SEC champion could, conceivably, open the door for a Cincinnati or even (whisper) TCU to enter the mix. (Or it could allow a one-loss champion to get in ahead of the other three unbeatens. But despite the fact few are yet willing to vault Texas to number 1, there would be rioting in the streets if that turned out to be the eventual SEC champion.)

A lot of teams further down in the ratings lose, creating upheaval from the 19 spot on down, starting with a booming move onto the Top 25 for the new darlings, Stanford, and continuing with a whopping three teams moving from negative B Points to the top 25, and in what may be a record this late in the year, five teams moving off the top 25, and in quite a few cases, out of positive B Points. And a behind-the-scenes alert: Utah falls so far down that they and BYU are almost neck-in-neck. Maybe within the conference, it’s not so much that BYU’s overrated as Air Force is underrated. We’ll know for sure when the two play each other this week.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking the difference between the team’s B Rating and his conference’s rating, taking a fraction of that equal to the fraction of Division I-A the conference makes up, and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Texas (10-0)
Big 12 Leader		 .826 59.715 52.630 Texas hasn’t needed any help from officials any step of the way. SEC parity, or Texas dominance?
2 TCU (10-0)
Non-BCS Leader		 .809 50.209 44.173 Utah is the only team in the Mountain West deserving of a Top 25 ranking, and TCU blew them out. Is that a sign the Mountain West really is WAC-level this year, or a sign the Horned Frogs really are national title material?
3 Florida (10-0)
SEC Leader
Princeton-Yale Title		 .812 43.837 39.183 People are starting to split hairs over which team in the SEC is better. But in the SEC Title Game (and in Florida’s upcoming blowout of Florida International) we’re all losers.
4 Alabama (10-0) .804 38.871 34.713 Alabama gets its act together in a blowout of an admittedly weak Mississippi State team the Tide held to a field goal. But expect them to dip again for playing an FCS school.
5 Boise State (10-0) .795 37.116 31.464 So far as I can tell, the main reason Boise could still go to a BCS bowl is because of an odd lack of parity: few non-conference champions are impressive. But Nevada is still unbeaten in conference.
6 Cincinnati (10-0)
Big East Leader		 .755 31.893 29.531 CBS’s Gregg Doyel says the team long part of the C Ratings’ Big 4 aren’t title game worthy. They certainly didn’t look it beating WVU by only three at home with SEC-like help. Could they fall to Pitt on the road in two weeks?
7 Ohio State (9-2)
Big Ten Leader		 .607 19.170 16.199 It was by three in overtime, but it was still the effective Big Ten title game. But people still don’t trust the Big Ten, or a team that lost to now-struggling USC and mediocre-to-bad Purdue.
8 Pittsburgh (9-1) .649 17.446 16.046 Basically matched what Ohio State did, against a worse team (sorry, Golden Domers). Now look for them to potentially slip for the bye.
9 Oregon (8-2)
Pac-10 Leader		 .542 18.226 14.824 Rebounded against Arizona State and now head into an effective Pac-10 title game against Arizona, despite the Civil War potentially looming as a second.
10 Virginia Tech (7-3)
ACC Leader		 .473 17.291 14.206 V-Tech’s ACC title hopes are officially dashed, and Duke wasn’t quite good enough for G-Tech to leapfrog the Hokies despite a blowout. Where are they or Pitt for BCS at-large bowl consideration?
11 Penn State (9-2) .604 13.441 10.995 Hmm. Penn State outranks Iowa in the polls as well, and in the BCS they’re behind only because the BCS computers still don’t count MoV. It looks like, despite losing to Iowa, PSU may be getting an upgrade to LSU and the Cap One Bowl.
12 Oklahoma (6-4) .406 12.609 10.235 Despite not having Bradford, every loss has been by a score to a team ranked in at least one poll, and they’ve looked dominant in the other games (see: A&M). Explain to me why they aren’t among the ranked?
13 Iowa (9-2) .509 12.390 10.040 The Hawkeyes have one game left and then I’m not sure if anyone knows for sure what bowl they’re going to. They’re going to do a lot of Big Ten and SEC game watching, that’s for sure.
14 Georgia Tech (10-1) .594 12.530 9.921 G-Tech may have blown out Duke by so much it limited their own benefit by hurting Duke’s A Rating. But while they didn’t leapfrog V-Tech they did leapfrog Clemson, and that’s their likely ACC Title Game opponent.
15 Clemson (7-3) .474 11.680 9.156 Don’t pop the corks just yet. Beating Virginia would give Clemson the Atlantic, but a loss would allow BC to control their own destiny. Fortunately, North Carolina has proved a trap game for everyone in the ACC.
16 LSU (8-2) .524 8.915 7.754 Considering the reaction, turns out LSU may need to scout Penn State instead – perhaps this week against Michigan State.
17 Nebraska (7-3) .488 8.415 6.460 Well, as it happens, despite the chaos that has enveloped the Big 12 North this year, it’s now very simple: the Kansas State game is an effective North title game, for the right to try to be a trap game for Texas.
18 Oklahoma State (8-2) .539 7.056 5.237 A one-score win over Texas Tech is probably to be expected. But I can’t help but wonder if the Cowboys will drop next week for letting a worse Colorado team get even closer…
19 Stanford (7-3)
2006 Boise State Title		 .450 6.562 4.132 Amazing what two big wins can do for you, and Toby Gerhart’s Heisman candidacy. Losses to Oregon State and Arizona (the former meaning Stanford’s rooting for the latter) and lowly Wake Forest are all water under the bridge now.
20 Rutgers (7-2)* .544 3.797 3.308 Rutgers’ only losses were to the Big East’s Big Two, but an incredibly weak non-conference slate (seriously, Army’s the best among them?) and narrow win over UConn held them back – until they shut out a USF team ranked in the polls.
21 Arkansas (6-4)* .360 3.817 3.165 Blew out a terrific-by-Sun-Belt-standards Troy team, and despite early blowout losses they still have their beef-with-the-refs-in-a-Florida game and Ws over Auburn and the other USC. But can they pass Ole Miss and Auburn for the Cotton Bowl?
22 Mississippi (7-3)* .455 2.962 2.395 Maybe not, if it’s the Rebels that take the spot, thanks to a blowout win over the beleaguered but Top 25 Vols – and a big-time game against the third-best team in the SEC coming up next.
23 Texas Tech (6-4) .384 3.474 2.013 The Red Raiders lose to Oklahoma State on the road. Now they get Oklahoma at home. Trap game, or do they get the same Oklahoma feeling twice in a row?
24 Notre Dame (6-4) .344 1.757 1.757 They kept it within five, but both of their remaining games are against teams in positive B Points. And they might both be must-wins for Weis to keep his job.
25 Oregon State (7-3) .429 3.884 1.677 Blowout win over admittedly-underperforming Washington just what the doctor ordered to put the Beavers on the Top 25. Every loss was to a good team (USC doesn’t look the part anymore) but tight wins over UNLV and Stanford had held them back.

29 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #27 Miami (FL) (was #20), Arizona (was ), Utah (was #25), #40 Tennessee (was #23), #46 USC (was #21)

Watch List: #26 Air Force, #27 Miami (FL), Wisconsin, Connecticut

Other Positive B Ratings: Arizona, Utah, #33 BYU*, #36 Houston, #37 Temple*, #39 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #30 West Virginia, #40 Tennessee, #46 USC, #52 Fresno State

Bottom 10: #111 Memphis, #112 Miami (OH), #113 San Jose State, #114 Tulane, #115 New Mexico State, #116 New Mexico, #117 Western Kentucky, #118 Eastern Michigan, #119 Washington State, #120 Rice

Conference Rating: SEC (-2.703), Big East (-3.546), Big 12 (-11.135), Big Ten (-13.244), ACC (-13.560), Pac-10 (-22.596), Mountain West (-30.266), WAC (-38.237), MAC (-44.758, leader #37 Temple), Conference USA (-46.569, leader #36 Houston), Sun Belt (-51.211, leader #58 Troy)

Best game of week: Oklahoma @ Texas Tech, 9:30am PT, FSN

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