Sports – Page 73 – MorganWick.com

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 6

October 23, 2009 by Morgan Wick

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

Begins Sunday of Week 11
In effect during Weeks 11-17
Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
NFL schedules all games.
Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
Prospects: 3-2 v. 3-2, with a pretty good chance of keeping its spot.
Protected games according to this: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Redskins-Cowboys (FOX).
Other possible games: Giants-Falcons is the main contender for a flex with Colts-Ravens fading and 49ers-Packers looking to be as good a game as the tentative.

Week 12 (November 29):

Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Prospects: 4-2 v. 3-3, the Steelers are defending champs, and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games. Jaguars-49ers and Colts-Texans each involve a team with the same record as the Ravens playing a team above .500, but one’s lopsided and the other has a worse average record.

Week 13 (December 6):

Tentative game: New England @ Miami
Prospects: A little mediocre at 4-2 v. 2-3, but anything can happen. PFT’s Mike Florio, which is now part of the NBC Sports site, seems to think the Dolphins are better than the 3-3 Jets and Jags.
Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons and Vikings-Cardinals each involve a 2-loss team playing a team with a better record. Keep an eye on Jaguars-Texans.

Week 14 (December 13):

Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and it’s 5-1 v. 3-2, currently the top two spots in said division (even if the Eagles are now tied for #2). Pretty good shot to keep its spot, though weaker than last week.
Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons remain strong contenders. But even with the NFC East’s struggles last week, Broncos-Colts is currently the only compelling candidate to flex away from Eagles-Giants (without a loss between them), given the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex.

Week 15 (December 20):

Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 6-0 and the Panthers 2-3, and CBS’ decision not to protect Bengals-Vikings last week really hurts its chances, since this is no longer NBC’s best shot to see Brett Favre. (Though since that comes in a week with a very attractive tentative game, it’s still relevant that NBC’s other two shots are the Cardinals game Week 13 and the Giants game Week 17, the latter of which will be affected by the game’s playoff implications.)
Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
Other possible games: Of the games I mentioned last week, only 49ers-Eagles didn’t see a team fall to .500 last week. Still, keep an eye on Falcons-Jets and Bears-Ravens.

Week 16 (December 27)

Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
Prospects: Could go either way, at 3-2 v. 2-4, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so its chances of keeping its spot are probably better than even. If the Redskins continue to be the Raiders Lite, though…
Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles. Jets-Colts is now mostly a dark horse, along with Jaguars-Patriots.

Week 17 (January 3):

Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

College Football Schedule – Week 8

October 21, 2009 by Morgan Wick

One game’s already underway and we’re back to a quagmire of mediocrity, so let’s get crackin’! All times Eastern.

TOP 25 GAMES
Tennessee	@	#1 Alabama	3:30	CBS	Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson, Tracy Wolfson
#2 Florida*	@	Mississippi State	7:30	ESPN	Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, Erin Andrews
Louisville	@	#3 Cincinnati	3:30	ESPNU	Todd Harris, Charles Arbuckle
#4 Texas	@	Missouri	8 PM	ABC	Brent Muberger, Kirk Herbstreit, Lisa Salters
#5 Iowa	@	Michigan State	7 PM	BTN	Wayne Larrivee, Chris Martin, Lisa Byington
#6 Boise State	@	Hawaii	8 PT	KTVB Gameplan	Mark Johnson, Tom Scott, David Augusto (BSU) Jim Leahey, Russell Yamaoha (HI HD)
#8 TCU	@	BYU	7:30	VS.	Joe Beninati, Glenn Parker, Tim Neverett
Texas A&M	@	#9 Texas Tech	7 PM
#10 Oregon*	@	Washington	3:30	ABC	Terry Gannon, David Norrie
Oregon State	@	#11 USC	8 PM	ABC	Mike Patrick, Craig James, Heather Cox
South Florida	@	#12 Pittsburgh	Noon	B.E. Net	Mike Gleason, John Congemi, Quint Kessenich
#13 Penn State	@	Michigan	3:30	ABC/ESPN	Sean McDonough, Matt Millen, Holly Rowe
#14 Oklahoma	@	#18 Kansas	3:30	ABC	Ron Franklin, Ed Cunningham
Iowa State	@	#15 Nebraska	12:30	FSN	Joel Meyers, Dave Lapham, Jim Knox
Auburn	@	#16 LSU	7:30	ESPN2	Mark Jones, Bob Davie
Minnesota	@	#17 Ohio State	Noon	ESPN	Dave Pasch, Bob Griese, Chris Spielman
#19 Clemson	@	Miami (FL)	3:30	ABC/ESPN	Bob Wischusen, Brian Griese
#22 Connecticut	@	#20 West Virginia	Noon	ESPNU	Clay Matvick, David Diaz-Infante
#25 Georgia Tech	@	#21 Virginia	Noon	Raycom	Steve Martin, Rick Walker, Mike Hogewood
Air Force	@	#23 Utah	4 PM	VS.	Ted Robinson, Anthony Herron, Lindsay Soto
UCLA	@	#24 Arizona	6:30	FSN/FCS	Steve Physioc, James Washington
WATCHLIST AND OTHER POSITIVE B POINT TEAMS
Arkansas	@	Mississippi	Noon	SEC Net	Dave Neal, Andre Ware, Cara Capuano
Oklahoma State	@	Baylor	12:30	VS.	Ron Thulin, Kelly Stouffer, Lewis Johnson
Boston College	@	Notre Dame	3:30	NBC	Tom Hammond, Pat Haden, Alex Flanagan
Vanderbilt	@	South Carolina	7 PM	ESPNU	Eric Collins, Brock Huard
Arizona State	@	Stanford	7 PT	FSN	Barry Tompkins, Petros Papadakis, Michael Eaves
Florida State	@	North Carolina	7:30 TH	ESPN	Chris Fowler, Craig James, Jesse Palmer, Erin Andrews
Fresno State	@	New Mexico State	7 PT	ESPNU	Carter Blackburn, JC Pearson
Northern Illinois	@	Miami (OH)	1 PM	CSD.com
THIS WEEK’S OTHER HD GAMES
Tulsa	@	UTEP	8 PM WE	ESPN	Dave Neal, Andre Ware
Rutgers	@	Army	8 PM FR	ESPN2	Joe Tessitore, Rod Gilmore
Illinois	@	Purdue	Noon	ESPN2	Pam Ward, Ray Bentley
Indiana	@	Northwestern	Noon	BTN	Ari Wolfe, Mark Campbell, Mike Hall
Wake Forest	@	Navy	3:30	CBS CS	Craig Bolerjack, Randy Cross
Louisiana-Monroe	@	Kentucky	7 PM	FSN	Bob Rathbun, Dave Archer, Jenn Hildreth
SMU	@	Houston	7:30	CBS CS	Dave Ryan, Akbar Gbaja-Biamila
BIG 12
Colorado	@	Kansas State	12:30	FCS	Dan McLaughlin, Yogi Roth, Samantha Steele
ACC
Maryland	@	Duke	1:30	ESPN360
PAC-10
Washington State	@	California	4:30
MOUNTAIN WEST
San Diego State	@	Colorado State	4 PM	mtn.	James Bates, Todd Christensen, Roger Bailey
UNLV	@	New Mexico	8 PM	mtn.	Dan Gutowsky, Robert Griffith, Toby Christensen
WAC
Louisiana Tech	@	Utah State	3 PM	ESPN+	Trey Bender, Jay Taylor
Idaho	@	Nevada	4 PM	Gameplan	Bob Akamian, Mike Lamb
SUN BELT
Western Kentucky	@	Middle Tenn. St.	3:30	CSS/CST	Todd Kalas, Derek Rackley
North Texas	@	Troy	3:30	FCS	Sam Smith, Roger Schultz
Florida Atlantic	@	Louisiana-Lafayette	5 PM	CSD.com
Florida International	@	Arkansas State	7 PM	CSD.com
MAC
Central Michigan	@	Bowling Green	Noon	ESPN+	Michael Reghi, Doug Chapman
Ball State	@	Eastern Michigan	1 PM	CSD.com
Kent State	@	Ohio	2 PM	CSD.com
Buffalo	@	Western Michigan	2 PM	CSD.com
Temple	@	Toledo	7 PM	CSD.com
CONFERENCE USA
UAB	@	Marshall	Noon	CSS	Tom Hart, Chuck Oliver, Allison Williams
Central Florida	@	Rice	3:30	CBSCS XXL
Tulane	@	Southern Miss	7 PM	CSS/CST	Matt Stewart, Derrick Lewis, Sandra Golden
BOWL SUBDIVISION
Akron	@	Syracuse	3:30	SNY	Mark Lawson, Dale Drypolcher, Chris Watson

2009 College Football Rankings – Week 7

October 21, 2009October 21, 2009 by Morgan Wick

In the Battle of Techs, G is better than V, and no one knows how good T might really be.

There were five games this week between teams in the Top 25, but the identity of two of those games depended on which rankings you were using. Texas Tech (playing Nebraska) and Arkansas (playing Florida) were ranked in the C Ratings but not in the polls. Arkansas proved they belonged in the C Ratings by keeping it close against the Fighting Tebows, but they weren’t going to move into the polls with anything less than a win. On the other hand, Texas Tech, a team even I was skeptical about, thundered into the polls with a stunning upset of Nebraska that really could change the Big 12 North calculus.

In the polls, South Carolina and Georgia Tech were ranked when their body of work maybe didn’t quite justify it. The Fighting Spurriers didn’t even give an Arkansas-like effort against Alabama (yet inexplicably remain ranked in the polls and are back in positive B Points), but G-Tech stunned V-Tech and make their way into the Top 25 of the C Ratings. The ACC’s national title hopes may be dashed, but if the two Techs can maintain their effort for the remainder of the season, perhaps they’ll finally get some credit for their parity.

And at the top? In this, the first week of the BCS standings, V-Tech’s loss firmly creates a Big Four in the C Ratings, but that’s one more than people are normally giving credit for. Texas tumbles from the top spot – and behind Cincinnati – after letting an Oklahoma team that’s now Bradford-less for good get within three, letting the SEC’s Big Two take the top two spots… but just like in the AP poll, Alabama leapfrogs Florida to take the top spot between them. Florida’s history of letting too many teams get too close for comfort finally caught up with them this week.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking the difference between the team’s B Rating and his conference’s rating, taking a fraction of that equal to the fraction of Division I-A the conference makes up, and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1	Alabama (7-0) SEC Leader	.832	28.440	25.546	With Florida not quite looking like last year’s team, Alabama has long been a favorite of the people – and games like South Carolina show why. But the Tide and Gators will eventually settle it on the field – again – in Atlanta.
2	Florida (6-0) Princeton-Yale Title	.834	28.022	25.170	They’re still undefeated, and still hold a win over LSU, but if they keep escaping against teams like Tennessee and Arkansas it won’t bode well for the SEC Title Game – or Tebow’s repeat Heisman hopes.
3	Cincinnati (6-0) Big East Leader	.785	26.642	24.828	A win over then-unbeaten South Florida was good enough to put Cincinnati at #5 in the first BCS rankings – but it seems they’re still seen as way behind the Big Three, and they’re still behind Boise State. Still no respect for the Big East.
4	Texas (6-0) Big 12 Leader	.785	27.353	24.322	Texas is like Florida – they’ve had too many pedestrian efforts, and other than Oklahoma their best team played is a 10-point home win over Texas Tech. Might they falter somewhere along the way?
5	Iowa (7-0) Big Ten Leader	.682	18.556	16.179	Imagine the Cincinnati-or-Iowa debate that would ensue if Texas were to lose. Two teams from conferences so disrespected USC or even Boise State might have a case. Of course, we all know what the real answer is, but still.
6	Boise State (6-0) Non-BCS Leader	.783	17.582	14.604	If Utah finishing second in the polls last year didn’t show it, this year looks to be proving that the non-BCS schools are starting to gain respect, thanks to Boise’s win over Oregon. Might one such school play for the national title by 2020?
7	Virginia Tech (5-2) ACC Leader	.465	16.139	13.799	G-Tech not only bumped V-Tech out of national title contention, the Hokies no longer even control their own destiny in the Coastal. Now comes a bye to prepare for North Carolina.
8	TCU (6-0)	.758	16.261	13.480	Annihilated Colorado State, Virginia and Clemson look better than you’d think, and I have Air Force ahead of BYU, who lost to mediocre FSU and outside OU has played crap at home. But they’re eager to prove they deserve their poll ranking.
9	Texas Tech (5-2)	.511	11.729	10.260	Texas Tech’s losses are on the road to one of the top three or four teams in the country, and a one-pointer. Now they have a marquee victory and a road one. Maybe they haven’t fallen off much from last year.
10	Oregon (5-1) Pac-10 Leader 2006 Boise State Title	.562	10.937	9.406	Despite the week off, Oregon moves UP and maintains its Pac-10 lead. But how huge will the USC game be? So long as the Ducks don’t fall into the same trap as the Trojans…
11	USC (5-1)	.611	10.659	9.151	Why do the computers have USC ranked so low? They lost to a team that’s 1-3 since and their only games against positive B-Point teams were both close (even though MoV isn’t factored into BCS computers). But OSU game is at home.
12	Pittsburgh (6-1)	.603	9.131	8.484	Welcome to the polls, Panthers. Now time to prove you deserve a better ranking by beating a South Florida team that was unbeaten heading into the Cincinnati game.
13	Penn State (6-1)	.689	8.715	7.240	The two major Western Pennsylvania teams are back-to-back, but shutting out Minnesota to become the 2nd-best team in the Big Ten doesn’t change the fact that the best team looks almost unbeatable. Now comes a bigger test at Michigan.
14	Oklahoma (3-3)	.353	8.164	7.052	Oklahoma deserves credit for giving Texas a fight, but we now know that the team that lost to BYU and Miami (FL) was the real Oklahoma with Bradford’s college career probably dead. But can I raise the specter of OU not even going to a bowl?
15	Nebraska (4-2)	.473	6.925	5.937	Nebraska lost by significantly more than Oklahoma to a worse team, but they only flip-flop spots on the way down. Fortunately, if they win all their remaining division games they can still win the Big 12 North easily, even if they lose to OU.
16	LSU (5-1)	.519	6.491	5.792	Hold steady because of teams below losing, and Auburn’s loss to Kentucky means they’re not even positive any more. LSU wants to make sure the slide continues at the battle of Tigers.
17	Ohio State (5-2)	.500	7.017	5.617	And down go the Buckeyes in a shocking upset to Purdue. They’re not even taking care of the small games anymore. They’ll try to bounce back against Minnesota, but it doesn’t bode well for their November tests.
18	Kansas (5-1)	.595	6.291	5.366	Kansas missed an opportunity opened up by Nebraska’s loss for a relatively unhindered road to the Big 12 North (and possibly being in the national title conversation) by losing to Colorado. Now they have to face… Oklahoma. Uh-oh.
19	Clemson (3-3)	.322	5.093	3.857	Back on the Top 25 after beating Wake Forest, but still no respect at 3-3. Maybe they’d get some if they beat overrated Miami (FL).
20	West Virginia (5-1)	.569	3.575	3.299	Crushed admittedly-mediocre Marshall to justify being ranked in the polls and in the C Ratings, despite Auburn’s woes and only the week before at Syracuse stopping the opponent from scoring 20. But UConn is now their best foe yet.
21	Virginia (3-3)	.297	3.668	2.575	The Cavs had a bad start to the season, going 0-3 with a loss to William and Mary, but they’re back on the winning track and are the only team unbeaten in ACC play. Georgia Tech, though, is out to change that.
22	Connecticut (4-2)	.412	2.211	2.026	Big win over Louisville. Hopefully a win over West Virginia will convince the pollsters the Huskies are for real, even if they have to do it with heavy hearts.
23	Utah (5-1)	.562	3.760	1.916	After weeks of being just out of the Top 25, the Utes make their way in after crushing UNLV. Only loss is to Oregon but Colorado State got too close for comfort and their other opponents aren’t much better. Air Force has something to prove.
24	Arizona (4-2)	.387	2.587	1.753	Talk about Cardiac Cats! No one has won an Arizona game by more than five since Iowa, and the only such games they’ve won have been over Central Michigan and Northern Arizona! But if you’re going to lose significantly, lose to Iowa.
25	Georgia Tech (6-1)	.514	2.720	1.722	Georgia Tech proved their poll ranking was well deserved, but still, not this high. The only FBS team they beat by double digits was North Carolina at home. If they wanna be ranked higher, they’ll need to beat a good Virginia team.

35 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #28 Michigan (was #22), #29 South Florida (was #17), #30 Notre Dame (was #21), #31 Arkansas (was #20)

Watch List: #26 Mississippi, #27 Oklahoma State*, #28 Michigan, #29 South Florida, #30 Notre Dame, #31 Arkansas, #32 Miami (FL)*, #33 Oregon State, #34 Tennessee*, #35 South Carolina*

Other Positive B Ratings: #36 Arizona State*, #37 Florida State, #40 Fresno State, #43 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #41 Auburn, #46 Stanford, #52 Duke, #77 Wake Forest

Bottom 10: #111 San Jose State, #112 Memphis, #113 Tulane, #114 New Mexico State, #115 Washington State, #116 Eastern Michigan, #117 Western Kentucky, #118 Miami (OH), #119 New Mexico, #120 Rice

Conference Rating: #1 SEC (-.502), #2 Big East (-.566), #3 Big 12 (-2.958), #4 ACC (-7.263), #5 Big 10 (-7.379), #6 Pac-10 (-7.429), #7 Mountain West (-20.819), #8 WAC (-22.130), #9 Sun Belt (-29.910, leader #63 Troy), #10 MAC (-30.122, leader #43 Northern Illinois), #11 C-USA (-31.702, leader #47 Houston)

Best game of week: Oklahoma @ Kansas, 12:30pm PT, ABC

All logos taken from Sportslogos.net, and are the trademarks of their respective schools, used without permission under fair-use clause of United States copyright law. Some logos may be out of date. Use of logos for commercial purposes without consent of the respective schools is prohibited.

Now that we’ve completely buried the sport of football, let’s talk some football!

October 19, 2009 by Morgan Wick

I’ve updated the lineal titles on the site, and if Jerry Jones cared about a piece of complete wankery only I care about, he’d be loving the Falcons win over the Bears. For the first time, the lineal title will be defended in The New Greatest Stadium in the History of History, aka Jerryworld, aka Cowboy Stadium.

I’m aiming for CFB rankings Tuesday, CFB schedule Wednesday, SNF Flex Sked Thursday, and RID Friday. I think this year I’m pretty much committed to doing the SNF Flex Sked Watch on Thursday at least through the end of college football season.

The twilight of the National Football League

January 1, 2016October 19, 2009 by Morgan Wick

Watching Friday’s “Pardon the Interruption” last night, as Tony and Mike interviewed bestselling author Malcolm Gladwell (whose books I haven’t read but am very interested in nonetheless) about his New Yorker piece on the brains of NFL players, I was struck by a sudden realization.

The NFL – the undisputed king of the American sports landscape – could be in the waning days of its popularity if not existence.

For decades now, especially as boxing faded away with the decline of Ali and Tyson, the NFL has been the dominant sport on the landscape by appealing to our bloodlust. People tune in to the NFL each week, in part, because they want to see violence, brutality, and pain. Even if that may not be strictly true, it is true that for non-fans (especially for baseball fans), football is identified with that sort of violence and brutality, which fans are willing to take a blind eye to.

American culture, as well as other developments, may be turning against that tolerance to the NFL’s brutality. There’s been a confluence of events that’s started to show that people are starting to care more about the NFL’s brutality than in the past. Most of them are in the background for now, like the ongoing pension fight between retired players and the Player’s Association and pieces like Gladwell’s that actually quantify the effects (even in college and high school) and have led to an increased emphasis on concussions, but we’ve also seen the NFL itself make rule changes that have been seen by some as appealing to pollyannas, especially when it comes to protecting the quarterback. The NFL is becoming a more conscientious place about the well-being of its players, with “safety” becoming the watchword of the day, but nothing it can do might protect them as well as keeping them out in the first place.

I can’t link to a video of the PTI interview because ESPN hides almost all video from PTI and “Around the Horn” behind its “Insider” subscription wall, but I can tell you that the interview did touch on this very possibility. Gladwell suggested that to completely make the NFL safe might require massive rule changes that would turn the game into something else, and the prospect was raised of Congress potentially deciding the NFL needed to be banned and driven underground. Perhaps the most likely doomsday scenario, though, may involve parents deciding they cannot, in good conscience, allow their kids to play such a violent sport – or even kids making that decision themselves.

There’s another cultural development that doesn’t bode well for the NFL: our bloodlust is starting to move on back to combat sports, specifically MMA. If young people decide they would rather get their bloodlust filled by MMA, leaving the remaining new potential NFL fans no longer considering violence as a criterion in its favor (and maybe as a criterion against), there might be less direct connection to the league and the NFL may start suffering in comparison to less violent sports. Maybe this means baseball and basketball, maybe it means something new like soccer.

And this might affect the popularity of football on all levels, not just the NFL. Which would be one way to end college football’s playoff debate…

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 5

October 15, 2009 by Morgan Wick

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

Begins Sunday of Week 11
In effect during Weeks 11-17
Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
NFL schedules all games.
Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Colts have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since three other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. NBC appearances for all teams: TEN 2, PIT 3 (1 flexible), CHI 3 (1 flexible), GB 1, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 3 (1 flexible), IND 3, ARI 2, SD 1, ATL 1, PHI 4 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 1 (flexible), MIA 1 (flexible), MIN 1 (flexible), CAR 1 (flexible), WAS 1 (flexible). All primetime appearances for all teams: TEN 4, PIT 5 (1 flexible), CHI 5 (1 flexible), GB 3, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 5 (1 flexible), IND 5, ARI 3, SD 4, ATL 2, PHI 3 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 3 (1 flexible), MIA 4 (1 flexible), MIN 3 (1 flexible), CAR 3 (1 flexible), WAS 3 (1 flexible), BUF 2, OAK 1, NYJ 2, DEN 3, NO 3, SF 2, CLE 2, HOU 1, JAX 1.
A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
Prospects: 3-1 v. 3-1, with a pretty good chance of keeping its spot.
Protected games according to this: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Redskins-Cowboys (FOX). Apparently the NFL’s most storied rivalry outweighs a game between two better teams in Giants-Falcons.
Other possible games: Colts-Ravens and Giants-Falcons are the main contenders with Chargers-Broncos and 49ers-Packers as dark horses.

Week 12 (November 29):

Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Prospects: 3-2 v. 3-2, the Steelers are defending champs, and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games – Bears-Vikings is the only other Saturday game pitting two teams with winning records, which, combined with the fact that Steelers-Ravens would revert to them, makes it an easy decision for CBS to leave this week unprotected despite how crap next week is for them. Jaguars-49ers, Colts-Texans, and Redskins-Eagles are the only games that so much as involve a 2-3 team playing a team with less than 3 losses.

Week 13 (December 6):

Tentative game: New England @ Miami
Prospects: A little mediocre at 3-2 v. 2-3, but anything can happen.
Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS). Last week I noted that for CBS to protect any game other than a battle of then-2-2 teams in Jags-Texans was to take a leap of faith that some team below .500 is going to improve. Apparently CBS REALLY thinks the Titans’ 0-5 start is a fluke. But I also said that the only reason CBS might protect ANY game is because of the weakness of the tentative game, then 3-1 v. 1-3.
Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons is the only Saturday game this week pitting two teams with one or no losses. Vikings-Cardinals is a dark horse.

Week 14 (December 13):

Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and it’s 5-0 v. 3-1, currently the top two spots in said division. Pretty good shot to keep its spot, which means Fox could have left this week unprotected. There’s a better candidate later, though.
Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
Other possible games: Those were the games I expected to be the frontrunners to potentially steal the spot, not to be protected, last week; Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons were and are better games. CBS is especially surprising because not only are Bengals-Vikings and Broncos-Colts better games, they have no shortage of starpower in Brett Favre and Peyton Manning respectively. This may have less to do with records than the fact that the only other AFC game in Cowboy Stadium, while on CBS, involves the crappy Raiders.

Week 15 (December 20):

Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
Prospects: Incredibly lopsided, with the Vikings unbeaten and the Panthers 1-3, and CBS’ decision not to protect Bengals-Vikings last week really hurts its chances, since this is no longer NBC’s best shot to see Brett Favre. (Though since that comes in a week with a very attractive tentative game, it’s still relevant that NBC’s other two shots are the Cardinals game Week 13 and the Giants game Week 17, the latter of which will be affected by the game’s playoff implications.)
Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
Other possible games: I completely misread Packers-Steelers as a CBS game last week, but Falcons-Jets, Bears-Ravens, or 49ers-Eagles are still better games involving two teams each above .500; none have the name value of the Steelers, though, and while the other Fox Steelers game is more attractive against the Vikings, it’s an early game as soon as Week 7 that’s unlikely to be shown in the late slot. In this sense, protecting the only half-decent game they had was a shoo-in for CBS.

Week 16 (December 27)

Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
Prospects: Could go either way, at 3-2 v. 2-3, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so its chances of keeping its spot are probably better than even. Given how crappy Fox’s games are and how marquee this game is regardless of records, it’s no wonder Fox left this week unprotected despite the bounty of great games last week and the (arguably) even more marquee game Week 14.
Likely protections: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
Other possible games: Jets-Colts or Broncos-Eagles.

Week 17 (January 3):

Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

College Football Schedule – Week 7

October 13, 2009 by Morgan Wick

Once again, we have boatloads of great games this week up and down the rankings, with five games just between teams in the Top 25. All times Eastern.

TOP 25 GAMES
#7 Oklahoma	v.	#1 Texas	Noon	ABC	Brent Musberger, Kirk Herbstreit, Lisa Salters
#20 Arkansas	@	#2 Florida*	3:30	CBS	Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson, Tracy Wolfson
South Carolina	@	#3 Alabama	7:30	ESPN	Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, Erin Andrews
#4 Cincinnati	@	#17 South Florida	7:30 TH	ESPN	Chris Fowler, Craig James, Jesse Palmer, Erin Andrews
#5 Virginia Tech	@	Georgia Tech	6 PM	ESPN2	Mark Jones, Bob Davie
#18 Texas Tech	@	#6 Nebraska	3:30	ABC/ESPN	Mike Patrick, Craig James, Heather Cox
#8 Iowa	@	Wisconsin	Noon	ESPN	Dave Pasch, Bob Griese, Chris Spielman
#9 Ohio State	@	Purdue	Noon	BTN	Wayne Larrivee, Chris Martin, Rebecca Haarlow
#10 Boise State	@	Tulsa	8 PM WE	ESPN	Rece Davis, Mark May, Lou Holtz, Todd Harris
Colorado State	@	#12 TCU	4 PM	VS.	Joe Beninati, Glenn Parker, Tim Neverett
#13 Kansas	@	Colorado	7 PM	FSN	Bill Land, Dave Lapham, Emily Jones
#14 USC	@	#21 Notre Dame	3:30	NBC	Tom Hammond, Pat Haden, Alex Flanagan
#15 Pittsburgh	@	Rutgers	8 PM FR	ESPN	Joe Tessitore, Rod Gilmore
Minnesota	@	#19 Penn State	3:30	ABC/ESPN	Sean McDonough, Matt Millen, Holly Rowe
Delaware State	@	#22 Michigan	Noon	BTN	Matt Devlin, Mark Campbell, Brent Stover
Louisville	@	#23 Connecticut	Noon	B.E. Network	Mike Gleason, John Congemi, Quint Kessenich
Stanford	@	#24 Arizona	7:30	VS.	Ron Thulin, Kelly Stouffer, Lewis Johnson
#25 Virginia	@	Maryland	4 PM	ESPNU	Todd Harris, JC Pearson
WATCHLIST AND OTHER POSITIVE B POINT TEAMS
Wake Forest	@	Clemson	Noon	Raycom	Steve Martin, Rick Walker, Mike Hogewood
Marshall	@	West Virginia	3:30	B.E. Network	John Sanders, Danny Kanell
Utah	@	UNLV	7 PT	mtn.	Bill Doleman, Robert Griffith, Toby Christensen
UAB	@	Mississippi	7 PM	SEC/FSN	Bob Rathbun, Dave Archer, Jenn Hildreth
Kentucky	@	Auburn	7:30	ESPNU	Eric Collins, Brock Huard
San Jose State	@	Fresno State	7 PT	CBSCS XXL
Northern Illinois	@	Toledo	7 PM	CSD.com
THIS WEEK’S OTHER HD GAMES
Arkansas State	@	Louisiana-Monroe	8 PM TU	ESPN2	Rob Stone, Shaun King
Northwestern	@	Michigan State	Noon	ESPN2	Pam Ward, Ray Bentley
Georgia	@	Vanderbilt	Noon	SEC Network	Dave Neal, Andre Ware, Cara Capuano
Mississippi State	@	Middle Tenn. St.	12:30	ESPNU	Clay Matvick, David Diaz-Infante
NC State	@	Boston College	3:30	ABC	Bob Wischusen, Brian Griese
California	@	UCLA	3:30	ABC	Terry Gannon, David Norrie
Houston	@	Tulane	3:30	CBS CS	Dave Ryan, Akbar Gbaja-Biamila
Illinois	@	Indiana	7 PM	BTN	Craig Coshun, Anthony Herron, Mike Hall
Texas A&M	@	Kansas State	7 PM	FCS	Dan McLaughlin, Yogi Roth, Samantha Steele
Miami (FL)	@	Central Florida	7:30	CBS CS	Tom Hart, Aaron Taylor
Missouri	@	Oklahoma State	9 PM	ESPN2	Ron Franklin, Ed Cunningham
Washington	@	Arizona State	7 PT	FSN	Barry Tompkins, Petros Papadakis, Michael Eaves
BIG 12
Baylor	@	Iowa State	7 PM
MOUNTAIN WEST
Wyoming	@	Air Force	2 PM	mtn.	Dan Gutowsky, Jay Leeuwunberg, Roger Bailey
BYU	@	San Diego State	6 PM	mtn.	Ari Wolfe, Blaine Fowler, Jenny Cavnar
WAC
Nevada	@	Utah State	3 PM	KAME/CSN CA
New Mexico State	@	Louisiana Tech	4 PM
Hawaii	@	Idaho	5 PM	ESPN+
CONFERENCE USA
Rice	@	East Carolina	3:30	MASN/XXL	Patrick Kinas, Billy Weaver, Brian Meador
Memphis	@	Southern Miss	7 PM	CBSCS XXL
SUN BELT
Troy	@	Florida International	7 PM	CSD.com
Louisiana-Lafayette	@	Western Kentucky	7 PM
Florida Atlantic	@	North Texas	8 PM	CST	Todd Kalas, Derek Rackley
MAC
Bowling Green	@	Ball State	Noon	CSD.com
Miami (OH)	@	Ohio	2 PM	CSD.com
Akron	@	Buffalo	3:30	FS Ohio TW Cable	Michael Reghi, Hanford Dixon Howard Simon, Ruben Brown
Central Michigan	@	Western Michigan	3:30	FS Detroit+	Jeff Phelps, Rob Otto
Kent State	@	Eastern Michigan	4 PM	CSD.com
BOWL SUBDIVISION
Army	@	Temple	1 PM	CSD.com
Navy	@	SMU	8 PM	MASN/XXL

2009 College Football Rankings – Week 6

October 12, 2009 by Morgan Wick

Every undefeated team is in the Top 25 and this year is shaping up to be very different from the past few years since 2005. It’s a weak year for mid-majors with only two teams (Boise State and TCU) that remain viable BCS busters, but we have two unbeatens each in the Big 12 and SEC in opposite divisions, plus one in the Big Ten… and two in the back-to-prominence Big East, including a Cincinnati team that looks very, VERY strong right now. Combine that with the fact that the Big Ten team isn’t Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, or even Wisconsin, but Iowa, as well as the fact that the second Big 12 team is Kansas, and this year is looking like the Revenge of the Ignored BCS Teams, one of the major themes of 2006 and 2007. And then there’s the ever-present possibility that we’ll need to put a one-loss team in the national championship game…

Of course, those “lesser” teams are still staying behind in the C Ratings to the Big 3 teams widely considered the national championship favorites, which finally line up at 1-2-3 this week. But to leapfrog Alabama over Texas this week, as the AP poll did, may just be giving the Longhorns bulletin board material. Even Florida’s big win over LSU, while significant for beating a good team, was against a team on the downslope and wasn’t by much, meaning Texas still stands in the way of anointing a Florida-Alabama SEC Title Game as a national title game before the title game like last year. Colt McCoy gets his opportunity at the national spotlight, and possible biggest test before the Big 12 title game, this week against an Oklahoma team that finally has Sam Bradford back. But what’s the biggest game of the week, the Red River Rivalry or the battle of unbeatens between Cincinnati and South Florida?

Meanwhile, at the bottom of the rankings there’s chaos as teams move into the Top 25 despite not playing (Notre Dame) or even losing (Michigan)… yet some of the teams that had to lose to make that possible still stay in the Top 25 and even move up. Instead among the teams leaving the Top 25 is Clemson, who also didn’t play – and Auburn, who had been in the top ten! Talk about this week’s California! Are we sure we’re a full six weeks into the season?

1	Texas (5-0) Big 12 Leader	.823	26.378	23.728	Sure they had a slow start and let Colorado take the lead in the first two quarters, but everyone takes a while to wake up sometimes, and the Longhorns were able to rectify that problem in the second half. But no slow starts against OU.
2	Florida (5-0) SEC Leader Princeton-Yale Title	.887	26.029	23.399	Urban Meyer’s cautiousness with Tim Tebow’s concussion may have cost the Gators a return trip to #1. But now the path seems clear to another SEC East title – but don’t have a letdown game! Arkansas looks very strong now.
3	Alabama (6-0)	.829	25.462	22.889	Penalized in the C Ratings for playing two Sun Belt teams and relatively tight pull-outs over V-Tech and Kentucky. But beating Ole Miss like that is a statement that announces with LSU gone, the West is yours to lose.
4	Cincinnati (5-0) Big East Leader	.792	20.677	19.280	They took a week off and Florida and Alabama still needed to make major statements to leapfrog them. The Bearcats still won’t go away – but now they face their biggest game of the season Thursday against fellow unbeaten USF.
5	Virginia Tech (5-1) ACC Leader	.575	21.070	18.551	If Alabama takes a couple of stumbles – a very real possibility with how tough the West is – V-Tech becomes a national title contender. But think of the respect they’d bring to the ACC – in losing – if they turn out to be ‘Bama’s biggest test.
6	Nebraska (4-1)	.655	14.972	13.462	Like Texas, they got off to a slow start against Missouri (a better team than Colorado) before pulling away to a big win late. With the one loss against V-Tech, do they become national title contenders if unbeatens start losing?
7	Oklahoma (3-2)	.460	14.547	13.080	Oklahoma with Sam Bradford is one of the top two teams in the Big 12, and the Baylor game was an announcement: he’s back, and the Sooners look to overturn the Longhorns’ road to the national title game – and preserve their own slim hopes.
8	Iowa (6-0) Big Ten Leader	.671	13.246	11.513	Pulling out a win that close at home, even against Michigan, may have dashed whatever national title hopes the Hawkeyes had, but Iowa City remains firmly in the national spotlight. Now on to Wisconsin.
9	Ohio State (5-1)	.633	12.283	10.638	People seem to have forgotten about this year’s choke in a big regular-season game, especially after the big win over Wisconsin. Will they be reminded this November? No need to worry about that now – focus on Purdue this week.
10	Boise State (5-0) Non-BCS Leader	.815	12.348	10.071	The Broncos’ schedule held up so well that because of losses and other weeks off, Boise State moves up despite taking a week off. But there’s a reason the Tulsa game was scheduled for national television…
11	Oregon (5-1) Pac-10 Leader 2006 Boise State Title	.562	10.282	8.894	Who could have predicted this would happen after the debacle that was the Boise State game? You think part of the reason they’re considering reinstating LeGarrette Blount is for similar reasons to the 49ers finally signing Crabtree?
12	TCU (5-0)	.723	10.742	8.598	TCU ruined CBS College Sports’ service-academy weekend with a win over Air Force that, while tight, was still a win over the third-best team in the Mountain West. Now Colorado State will serve as a warm-up for BYU in two weeks.
13	Kansas (5-0)	.769	9.416	8.462	Iowa State is an awfully mediocre team to get that far into the game, and Southern Miss and especially UTEP losing didn’t help. The Nebraska in the fourth quarter of the Missouri game should put a scare in the Jayhawks’ Big 12 North hopes.
14	USC (4-1)	.608	8.206	6.992	Something’s different about this year’s letdown game: the Trojans have fallen completely off the map, which didn’t happen even in 2007. They slip for a week off, but they desperately need to beat Notre Dame to get back on the radar.
15	Pittsburgh (5-1)	.594	6.308	5.869	The win over UConn wasn’t much, but it was still a major, major win over a very good team, and other teams took weeks off or lost – so why is Pitt still not ranked in either poll, given the Big East’s nonconference success?
16	LSU (5-1)	.519	6.034	5.403	Florida is great, but the way their defense handled the Tiger offense such that Tebow didn’t have to do much should be deeply troubling. Now they’ll slip for a week off before playing… Auburn. Well, at least they had their own bad loss.
17	South Florida (5-0)	.845	5.487	5.102	So, has Florida’s Big 3 become a Big 4? The Bulls are better than the others except Florida and though they have no conference titles, if they beat Cincy the Big East is theirs to lose. But Florida State is the only team worth a damn they’ve played.
18	Texas Tech (4-2)*	.464	4.082	3.661	What the heck? Texas Tech is still winless on the road and Kansas State is the best team beaten so far yet still on the last page of the complete rankings, but it was a blowout they needed, and give them credit for staying in their losses.
19	Penn State (5-1)	.643	4.551	3.615	Don’t slip too far for blowing out FCS Eastern Illinois, but do fall behind freaking Texas Tech. They get back to playing real teams this week against Minnesota.
20	Arkansas (3-2)	.351	2.302	2.044	For Arkansas, this is the opposite of 2006. That year, everyone fell in love with them after they beat Auburn, but the C Ratings didn’t trust them. This year, they move into the Top 25 in the Ratings but not the polls. Now comes… Florida.
21	Notre Dame (4-1)	.488	1.937	1.937	The Cardiac Domers move into the Top 25 for the first time since 2006 despite not playing because of losses by, among others, Arizona to the last team they played. But now comes a major, major test against USC.
22	Michigan (4-2)	.417	2.381	1.644	So much for the “Forcier for Heisman” campaign. Even the big win over Notre Dame seems like a long time ago. But they still move back into the Top 25 despite losing because they kept it close against possibly the best team in the Big Ten.
23	Connecticut (3-2)	.365	1.738	1.603	UConn couldn’t get the job done against Pitt, though they put in a valiant effort. Time to get back on the winning track this week against Louisville.
24	Arizona (3-2)	.351	2.030	1.331	By all rights, Arizona should have won that game against Washington, but lost on the flukiest of fluke plays – and I live within walking distance of the UW campus. But if they want to prove they deserve this ranking, they better beat Stanford.
25	Virginia (2-3)*	.223	1.623	1.049	Virginia’s presence on the Top 25 might be more explicable than Clemson’s last week – I keep meaning to correct it so FCS losses actually penalize you in more than A Rating! But they kept it close against Southern Miss and have won their last two.

38 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #26 Clemson (was #24), #29 Mississippi (was #20), #32 Auburn (was #6), #38 Stanford (was #23), #39 Missouri (was #22)

Watch List: #26 Clemson, #27 West Virginia, #28 Utah, #29 Mississippi, #30 Georgia Tech*, #31 Oregon State*, #32 Auburn, #33 Florida State

Other Positive B Ratings: #34 Duke*, #35 Wake Forest, #38 Stanford, #43 Fresno State*, #46 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #37 South Carolina, #39 Missouri, #49 UCLA

>If there were a watch list for becoming positive, it would include #36 Tennessee, #37 South Carolina, #39 Missouri, #40 Miami (FL), #41 Wisconsin, #42 Oklahoma State, #44 Arizona State, #45 Rutgers, #47 Navy, #48 Air Force, #49 UCLA, #50 Iowa State, #51 BYU, and #52 Minnesota. And shockingly, #53 is Idaho, which has been AWFUL in past years. With a lot of intra-Top-25 matchups, next week could be at least as volatile as this one.

Bottom 10: #111 UNLV, #112 Tulane, #113 Memphis, #114 Toledo, #115 Eastern Michigan, #116 Washington State, #117 Western Kentucky, #118 Miami (OH), #119 New Mexico, #120 Rice

Conference Rating: #1 Big 12 (-.125), #2 SEC (-.274), #3 Big East (-.285), #4 ACC (-4.113), #5 Big 10 (-5.664), #6 Pac-10 (-6.366), #7 Mountain West (-17.842), #8 WAC (-18.012), #9 C-USA (-22.948), #10 Sun Belt (-23.478), #11 MAC (-27.291)

Best game of week: Oklahoma v. Texas, 9am PT, ABC

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 4

October 8, 2009 by Morgan Wick

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

Begins Sunday of Week 11
In effect during Weeks 11-17
Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
NFL schedules all games.
Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections are being scheduled now, after Week 4.
Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Colts have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since three other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. NBC appearances for all teams: TEN 2, PIT 3 (1 flexible), CHI 3 (1 flexible), GB 1, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 3 (1 flexible), IND 3, ARI 2, SD 1, ATL 1, PHI 4 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 1 (flexible), MIA 1 (flexible), MIN 1 (flexible), CAR 1 (flexible), WAS 1 (flexible). All primetime appearances for all teams: TEN 4, PIT 5 (1 flexible), CHI 5 (1 flexible), GB 3, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 5 (1 flexible), IND 5, ARI 3, SD 4, ATL 2, PHI 3 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 3 (1 flexible), MIA 4 (1 flexible), MIN 3 (1 flexible), CAR 3 (1 flexible), WAS 3 (1 flexible), BUF 2, OAK 1, NYJ 2, DEN 3, NO 3, SF 2, CLE 2, HOU 1, JAX 1.
A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
Prospects: 2-1 v. 3-1, with a decent chance of keeping its spot.
Likely protections: Jets-Patriots or Colts-Ravens, most likely the former (CBS) and Giants-Falcons or Redskins-Cowboys (FOX).
Other possible games: Chargers-Broncos and 49ers-Packers are the major contenders right now other than the protected games.

Week 12 (November 29):

Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Prospects: 2-2 v. 3-1, but the Steelers are defending champs and it’s a rivalry game. If the Steelers can rebound from their slow start they have a good chance of keeping their spot.
Likely protections: If anything, Jaguars-49ers or Colts-Texans (CBS) and Bears-Vikings (FOX).
Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there is some slim pickings for games – the major reason this might be CBS’ unprotected week is that Bears-Vikings is the only Saturday game without a team with two or more losses. Jaguars-49ers, Colts-Texans, and Redskins-Eagles are the other games involving a 2-2 team playing a team with less than 2 losses, but CBS’ power rankings expects the Steelers to be better than the Niners right now (and Fox has them ahead of the Broncos!).

Week 13 (December 6):

Tentative game: New England @ Miami
Prospects: A little lopsided at 3-1 v. 1-3, but anything can happen.
Likely protections: Eagles-Falcons, Cowboys-Giants, or Vikings-Cardinals (FOX) and Jaguars-Texans if anything (CBS).
Other possible games: The only reason CBS might protect a game this week is because of the weakness of the tentative game, but for them to protect any game other than the battle of 2-2 teams is to take a leap of faith that some team below .500 is going to improve. The major candidates are the Fox unprotected games above, and only if teams improve – Eagles-Falcons is the only Saturday game this week pitting two teams with one or no losses.

Week 14 (December 13):

Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings) , the Giants are 4-0, and the Eagles are considered by most to be closer to 3-1 than 2-2. Pretty good shot to keep its spot, which means Fox could leave this week unprotected. But Fox has a single good game, and the next week has a ton of them and another tentative game that would go to them with a flex, so I say they go ahead and protect this week.
Likely protections: Bengals-Vikings or Broncos-Colts (CBS) and Saints-Falcons (FOX).
Other possible games: Chargers-Cowboys or Packers-Bears.

Week 15 (December 20):

Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
Prospects: Incredibly lopsided, with the Vikings unbeaten and the Panthers winless, but it’s the only game slotted for NBC and SNF’s best shot to get Brett Favre other than this game is the Cardinals game Week 13 and the Giants game Week 17, the latter of which will be affected by the game’s playoff implications.
Likely protections: Falcons-Jets, Bears-Ravens, or 49ers-Eagles (Fox) and if anything, Packers-Steelers or Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
Other possible games: See above. The bounty of great games on Fox will still include a protection for reasons described below, while this is CBS’ third nominee for an unprotected week; they might still protect a game (probably Packers-Steelers) because they wouldn’t get anything back, or they could bet that even if NBC flexes away from Vikings-Panthers it’s probably to another Fox game.

Week 16 (December 27):

Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
Prospects: Could go either way, with both teams at 2-2, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so its chances of keeping its spot are probably better than even. Given how crappy Fox’s games are and how marquee this game is regardless of records, I’d say this is the likeliest spot for their unprotected game.
Likely protections: Jets-Colts, Ravens-Steelers, or Broncos-Eagles (CBS).
Other possible games: Jaguars-Patriots.

Week 17 (January 3):

Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

How Dana White could end up holding UFC back

October 8, 2009 by Morgan Wick

Yesterday I watched UFC head honcho Dana White interviewed on ESPN’s Jim Rome is Burning. Dana White is probably the Mark Cuban of sports commissioners, the closest real sports come to the bombast of a Vince McMahon, but that’s not the reason I’m concerned about something coming out of the interview. White seemed dismissive of attempts to compete with UFC such as Strikeforce, but that may not turn out to be the best approach. White said UFC could be on network television right now, maybe even years ago, if they had received the right TV deal, and attacked rival MMA organizations (the deceased EliteXC being the first to come to my mind) for rushing into any old TV deal too fast too soon. White also proclaimed that UFC could be among the biggest sports in the country once they got the right TV deal.

I’m concerned, just a little, that White may be looking too hard for the right TV deal, and not settling for a good enough TV deal. If White keeps biding his time waiting for the perfect package, he may find himself vulnerable to a challenge, and possibly being overtaken, from a rival organization that’s willing to settle for maybe a weaker TV deal than White wants but run by better people than the showrunners of the IFL or EliteXC. Dana White just may be too much of a perfectionist for UFC’s own good, and even if MMA does achieve the heights White has in mind, I still think White’s needlessly leaving open an opening for the organization leading it to those heights not to be UFC.

Of course, that’s not even getting into what comes across to me (outside the interview) as somewhat dictatorial tendencies, but maybe that comes with the territory of arranging the cards manually…