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How The Streak Will Continue

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So, we’re in the thick of football season right now, and even with my efforts to condense and reduce the number of projects I’m working on I still have quite a lot, so I decided to put together a schedule, both to help manage my work on them, and to remind me to do them in a timely fashion. So effective immediately, here are the posts you can expect each week, with exact dates subject to change:

  • Monday (starting in four weeks): Last-Minute SNF Picks
  • Tuesday: FF50 Challenge Power Rankings
  • Wednesday: College Football Rankings
  • Thursday: Sunday Night Football Flex Schedule Watch

Fridays are free and I may take advantage of them to do webcomic reviews in November; certainly I would expect most webcomic posts to wait until then if possible. Some webcomic posts may come Monday before the last-minute picks start or in weeks where I’ve already made my final prediction, though, and the whole structure will start to break down in December after the college season ends and fantasy leagues start hitting the playoffs.

Update on my school year

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Okay, I’ve clearly completely failed at managing my projects vis-a-vis actual schoolwork, because I’m tired all day and I’m falling horribly behind on it, despite the fact that I was trying to make one of my projects into schoolwork.

Obviously the FF50 challenge is a major timesuck, but there’s one or two other projects as well, which are actually starting to crowd out one another, and I’m not sure how to weed them out. I can’t abandon leagues much faster than I’m already doing; if I’m in contention for a playoff spot, let alone the championship, for me to then abandon my team would cause utter chaos. Already down to 42 leagues before I even started, I was thinking of dropping to 32 next year, and now I’m thinking even lower, because I have never put in all the roster moves I would have liked to before deadline.

Thoughts on the new baseball contracts coming Wednesday.

2012 College Football Rankings – Week 4

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This will be my penultimate year of the college football rankings. There are a couple reasons for this, not just the new playoff – namely, conference realignment is making college football unrecognizable to me (the Princeton-Yale Title is going to be unified with the 2010 TCU title this week, shockingly early in the season, and the move of West Virginia to the Big 12 is almost solely responsible for it) – but the fact that we’re getting a playoff, one where a selection committee is making the decisions and so there’s less emphasis on “rankings” to try to influence people, is the main one. The monstrosity that has been the BCS has attempted to make its decisions with a combination of polls and computer rankings, though they’ve increasingly neutered the latter; as such, there’s a lot of emphasis on where teams stand, and my rankings were an attempt to contribute to that debate. Now, there are fewer people to be swayed and they’re less likely to be swayed; as such, if I were to continue the feature, its most appropriate form would probably be a “bubble watch”.

The week 3 rankings showed that the national consensus isn’t far off, with Alabama and LSU top three. The Tigers took a bigger tumble in the C Ratings this week after not only letting a mediocre-at-best Auburn team keep it closer than they should have, but having Washington not play and the other two teams they played lose. Just as in the polls, Oregon takes advantage of its squash of Arizona to take LSU’s spot. But in both weeks, there’s an interloper. Say what you will about their impact on conference realignment and the economics of college sports, but the Texas Longhorns will be good whenever they want to be. Their squashes of their first three opponents, especially an admittedly-weak SEC team, should serve notice to the rest of the country that they could be headed to Miami when all is said and done.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC ’06 Boise St.
4-0 LW: A Rat: .935 B Rating: 26.029 C Rating: 22.864 AP: 1 Coaches: 1
Alabama has picked up right where they left off last season.
2 Texas B12 BCS Title
3-0 LW: A Rat: .845 B Rating: 24.513 C Rating: 21.711 AP: 12 Coaches: 10
If Texas can do to Oklahoma State what they’ve done to their other opponents so far, the whole country will realize how good this Longhorn squad really is.
3 Oregon P12 BCS Title
4-0 LW: #15 A Rat: .823 B Rating: 23.253 C Rating: 20.569 AP: 2 Coaches: 2
One big win over a good Arizona team, and suddenly Oregon looks a lot like the team USC was supposed to be – or the team from two years ago.
4 Texas Tech B12 BCS Title
3-0 LW: A Rat: .901 B Rating: 20.427 C Rating: 17.982 — —
When you never score less than 44, your rating is going to be good no matter what – and they actually account for Texas State’s only loss this season. But another unbeaten is next.
5 Florida State ACC BCS Title
4-0 LW: A Rat: .900 B Rating: 18.657 C Rating: 16.813 AP: 4 Coaches: 4
With the Big East finally losing AQ status, the ACC becomes the new laughingstock conference – but their flagship team is back with a vengeance and out to prove they deserve their seat at the table.
6 Stanford P12 ’09 Boise St.
3-0 LW: A Rat: .704 B Rating: 13.660 C Rating: 12.258 AP: 8 Coaches: 9
No Andrew Luck? No problem. Stanford’s out to prove they’re going to be a power in the Pac-12 for a long time to come.
7 Kansas State B12 BCS Title
4-0 LW: A Rat: .773 B Rating: 14.056 C Rating: 12.201 AP: 7 Coaches: 8
Did Kansas State just pull off a huge upset? Not according to the C Ratings, where Oklahoma wasn’t even on the top 25.
8 Notre Dame BCS Title
4-0 LW: #18 A Rat: .792 B Rating: 11.999 C Rating: 10.224 AP: 10 Coaches: 11
The Golden Domers certainly look to be back. Navy’s squash of VMI for their first win of the season plays as much of a role in this ranking as anything.
9 LSU SEC BCS Title
4-0 LW: A Rat: .816 B Rating: 11.951 C Rating: 9.829 AP: 3 Coaches: 3
Sorry LSU, but national championship contenders don’t let a mediocre Auburn team get that close to victory.
10 Florida SEC BCS Title
4-0 LW: A Rat: .761 B Rating: 10.990 C Rating: 9.365 AP: 11 Coaches: 12
Florida remains unbeaten despite three SEC games already, two on the road. But LSU awaits in two weeks.
11 Georgia SEC BCS Title
4-0 LW: A Rat: .823 B Rating: 11.074 C Rating: 8.994 AP: 5 Coaches: 5
Despite demolishing Vanderbilt, Georgia runs into the same problem as LSU: the other three teams they played all lost by sizable margins. But the Bulldogs may be making some real noise this year.
12 South Carolina SEC BCS Title
4-0 LW: A Rat: .823 B Rating: 9.616 C Rating: 7.523 AP: 6 Coaches: 6
If South Carolina were in any other conference, they’d be a favorite for the conference title. Instead, they’re third best in their own division.
13 Ohio State B10 Probation
4-0 LW: #12 A Rat: .749 B Rating: 9.485 C Rating: 7.309 AP: 14 BlogPoll: 14
Remember the effect USC’s bowl-ineligibility had on the Pac-12 South race last year? Ohio State may have that effect on the entire conference. Its next-best team isn’t on the Top 25.
14 Arizona State P12 BCS Title
3-1 LW: #17 A Rat: .585 B Rating: 7.441 C Rating: 5.830 — —
Why is Arizona State our first one-loss team? They’ve never scored less than 37 or allowed more than 14 in a win, and their one loss was by only four.
15 West Virginia B12 Prncton/Yale
3-0 LW: #23 A Rat: .757 B Rating: 6.847 C Rating: 5.772 AP: 9 Coaches: 7
West Virginia has won every game by at least ten – but none of them have been quite like the team whose 2010 TCU title is getting unified this Saturday.
16 Iowa State B12 BCS Title
3-0 LW: A Rat: .774 B Rating: 6.153 C Rating: 5.405 — —
There’s reason for skepticism about the Cyclones – taking a week off right after facing a I-AA team, the 9-6 win over Iowa – but they beat down that I-AA opponent and account for Tulsa’s only loss.
17 Louisiana Tech WAC BCS Bowl
3-0 LW: #53 A Rat: .667 B Rating: 7.162 C Rating: 4.399 — —
Huh? A team from the dying WAC is ranked this high? Take a look at their impressive win over an Illinois team whose other loss came to a team ranked even higher.
18 Cincinnati BST BCS Title
2-0 LW: #27 A Rat: .850 B Rating: 4.475 C Rating: 4.168 — —
It’s easy to be 2-0 when you’ve only played two teams, one of them a I-AA school – but they’ve been by impressive margins and Pitt just put up an impressive win of its own.
19 Clemson ACC BCS Title
3-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .500 B Rating: 4.402 C Rating: 4.104 AP: 17 Coaches: 16
Florida State is seen as a national title contender, and it was high-scoring enough that a 12-point loss doesn’t affect score ratio too much. But it could keep the Tigers out of the conference title game.
20 Ohio MAC BCS Bowl
4-0 LW: #20 A Rat: .729 B Rating: 5.460 C Rating: 3.850 BlogPoll: 25 —
It’s easy to be skeptical of the Bobcats, especially with a win by only three over Marshall, but it’s hard to argue with their results.
21 TCU B12 BCS Title
3-0 LW: A Rat: .907 B Rating: 5.045 C Rating: 3.275 AP: 15 Coaches: 14
TCU has come into its new conference guns blazing with three squashes – and they might not even be in the top half of the conference. Look out, SEC.
22 Rutgers BST BCS Title
4-0 LW: #22 A Rat: .774 B Rating: 5.006 C Rating: 2.856 AP: 23 Coaches: 25
The Scarlet Knights will not play an FBS team currently with a winning record until Kent State the last week of October. Keep that in mind as they climb the polls the next few weeks. In other news, the Big East is mediocre.
23 Oregon State P12 BCS Title
2-0 LW: #43 A Rat: .640 B Rating: 2.983 C Rating: 2.712 AP: 18 Coaches: 21
The Beavers have played two games, both within a score. Still, both were against above-average teams, which bodes well for their chances against reeling Arizona.
24 Baylor B12 BCS Title
3-0 LW: #54 A Rat: .703 B Rating: 3.943 C Rating: 2.087 AP: 25 Coaches: 24
Surviving against a good Louisiana-Monroe team shows their bona fides, but it doesn’t bode well for a road trip to Morgantown.
25 Mississippi State SEC BCS Title
4-0 LW: A Rat: .900 B Rating: 18.657 C Rating: 16.813 AP: 21 Coaches: 19
Impressive win, albeit over an FBS newcomer. The schedule, and a 6-point escape over Troy in their only road game, are concerns, though, and they’ll fall off next week for idle hands.


42 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #27 USC (was #21), Oklahoma State (was #16), #33 Georgia Tech (was #19), #35 Arizona (was ), #48 UCLA (was #25)

Unbeaten teams not on Top 25: #30 Louisville, #40 Northwestern, #45 Minnesota, #49 Texas-San Antonio (all in positive B Points, Minnesota and Texas-San Antonio not in positive C)

Rest of Watch List (all 3-1 unless otherwise noted): #26 Texas A&M (2-1), #27 USC, Michigan State, Oklahoma State (2-1), Nevada, Pittsburgh (2-2), #33 Georgia Tech (2-2), #34 San Jose State, #35 Arizona, #36 Tennessee*

Other Positive B Ratings: #37 North Carolina* (2-2), #38 Boise State (2-1), #39 BYU (2-2), #41 Fresno State* (2-2), #42 Nebraska (3-1), #43 Toledo (3-1), #44 Central Florida (2-1), #46 Oklahoma (2-1), #47 Utah State* (3-1), #48 UCLA (3-1), #55 Northern Illinois (3-1), #57 Middle Tennessee State (2-1) (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #51 Western Kentucky, #52 Kentucky, #56 Louisiana-Monroe, #58 Maryland, #83 Utah

Bottom 10: #115 SMU, #116 Houston, #117 Akron, #118 Eastern Michigan, #119 Army, #120 Southern Miss, #121 Hawaii, #122 Colorado, #123 Tulane, #124 Massachusetts

Best game of week: Texas Tech @ Iowa State, 4pm PT, FCS

I’ve figured out why this streak is so much more challenging than the last one.

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One problem I’ve realized I’ve had recently is that even my filler posts leave me stumped. If I don’t find anything going down the list of comics I’ve reviewed, my only real recourse is a metapost like this one.

You may be wondering why I don’t put up the Erfworld review, or some other post that’s been coming down the pike for a while, then. Well, the simple answer is that it’s sort of daunting how long it might take, long enough that it might not solve the problem for tonight. I have no idea how long it’ll actually take, but I doubt I could finish it tonight, and in fact I doubt I could finish it off in the near future.

Next week should be easier. The first College Football Rankings post comes out then, as does a couple of ambitious webcomics posts… and they’re not what you think.

Requiem for a lost summer

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In less than a week, school will start up again for me.

I had all sorts of ambitious plans for the summer. As it turned out, no thanks to the Webcomic Overlook (and a fairly ambitious Homestuck post I’m trying to write), I couldn’t even get any webcomic reviews in – I couldn’t even catch up on Ctrl+Alt+Del like last summer! – and now I probably won’t be able to get any in for most of the rest of the year. I might sneak in a couple of reviews of Erfworld and VG Cats at some point, and maybe eke out a Girls with Slingshots review at some point down the line, but that might be it for the foreseeable future.

In all likelihood, I’m going to drop the streak sometime soon, and in fact posting on Da Blog could hit an all-time low for the next eight months or so. All the posts on Da Blog are going to involve football, the sports TV wars, OOTS, Gunnerkrigg Court, or Questionable Content for the remainder of the year. I’m still going to try to get a project off the ground, but I had been hoping to be so far along with it that I could say with confidence that the end of The Streak wouldn’t matter. Needless to say, that did not come to pass.

I may have mentioned before that I’m about to hit a series of classes that will involve some hardcore work that needs to get done, more even than I’ve otherwise encountered at school up to this point. Regardless of anything else, I would expect posting on Da Blog to come to a near-complete halt in April through early June, and if nothing else I would hope to high heaven I can at least get this project off the ground by then.

God I’m so pissed off at myself. This was going to be an absolutely critical summer for the future of Da Blog, and it may have actually been less productive than other recent summers. What the hell is wrong with me?

Update on the state of my laptop

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So I finally got my laptop back, and not only was my hard drive either reformatted or replaced, I actually got DOWNGRADED to Windows XP instead of Windows 7, EVEN THOUGH WINDOWS 7 CAME WITH THE COMPUTER. Oh, and the sound is crappy, the power cord is being finicky all of a sudden, and the W key is loose on an allegedly new keyboard, making me wonder if the only reason the hard drive needed reformatting or replacing is because they screwed it up.

Honestly, I’d much rather have gotten a brand new laptop, and I have a feeling that could be the main thing dominating my Christmas list. I might be able to reinstall Windows 7, which might fix a number of those issues, but I’m worried it might cause a host of new ones, given the options staring me in the face.

In the meantime, I’ve brought back the donation button to try to help raise funds for such a computer. If I get Windows 7 back and I’m satisfied with how I do so, I’ll probably take the button off.

Setting the stage for the next week

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My laptop is on its way to HP. Under the circumstances, it looks like I’m probably going to be working off Mom’s computer for all of next week, and maybe into the week after that.

The FF50 challenge looks to be in good shape. I may have to either move Tuesday’s drafts later, or move at least the noon one to 9 AM PT, due to various commitments, but other than that everything should proceed swimmingly, aside from Mom’s attempts to get me to do other, more productive things.

Naturally, after my promises to keep webcomic posts to a minimum while my laptop is getting fixed, next week may prove to be a rather webcomic-heavy week. QC and Homestuck definitely, Gunnerkrigg Court maybe. The HS post will be rather general in nature; I’m going to hold off on posting on Act 6 Intermission 3 probably until it’s over, intentionally this time, partly because of the three daisy-chained exploration non-flashes that either start or consist the intermission that are probably intended to form one long non-flash, partly because of how buggy it is still; even in the preferred Chrome browser on Mom’s computer, sometimes the sound will spontaneously shut off for no reason, so I’m going to wait until my computer comes back to go through the other non-flashes.

Between webcomics and other things, I have plenty of ideas to fill out the next week of posts already.

As if I wasn’t having enough trouble getting anything done this summer…

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So, the frame of the screen of my laptop has become disconnected from the screen itself in one corner, AND one hinge has come loose, so I’m going to have to send it in to be repaired and that could take over a week.

The timing on this could not be worse as it jeopardizes the FF50 competition; I will probably have to do the drafts on my mom’s computer, if I do as many as I had planned at all, as Mom’s probably not going to be happy about me monopolizing the computer for large chunks of the day, especially when I could be doing more productive things.

Also, I’m going to be keeping my webcomics posts to a minimum over the course of the week. It’s unfortunate with the current events in Gunnerkrigg Court and Questionable Content that could become post-worthy soon, but it’s probably necessary.

Starting Da Blog’s 2012 football season with a whimper

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It is with a heavy sigh that I have begun the process of preparing the site for the 2012 football season (last week’s fantasy draft didn’t count). I’ve been dreading this because of all the stuff I wanted to get done this summer that didn’t get done. Both lineal titles have their respective first games updated, and sometime before Thursday I’ll tweet out when you can expect the first rankings. Because of the Fantasy Football Fifty Challenge, those and the SNF Flex Schedule Watch may be the only things I do this year.