This is both why I shouldn’t be posting on Homestuck, and why I’m the only one crazy and stubborn enough to do so.

(From MS Paint Adventures: Homestuck. Click for full-sized reign of the pool balls.)

So. Let’s talk about that EOA flash some more.

A single installment of a comic has to be absolutely incredible for me to devote two posts to talking about it. If anything would qualify, it would be that flash, but that’s not why I want to talk about it. Nor do I want to talk about it because of Hussie’s Halloween (sort of) surprise unveiling Lord English in full to us for the first time (after I noted his glaring absence in the EOA). Rather, I want to talk about it because arguably the most important development in that act-ending flash wasn’t conveyed clearly.

To be fair, without dialogue (and the lack of dialogue is an important part of the appeal of Homestuck‘s flashes), it may well have been impossible to convey clearly. Without dialogue, it’s impossible to tell whether Rose and Dave can’t find the Green Sun, or if it’s just obscured by the Tumor, the distance, and quite possibly being in the middle of Derse’s moon. Without dialogue, it’s impossible to tell whether that huge green orb is the Green Sun itself, or the shockwave from its destruction. It’s especially impossible to tell when Hussie intentionally structured the flash out of strict chronological order (even by Homestuck standards – for instance, that Red Miles attack of Noir’s, depicted immediately after he’s seen mourning Jade’s death and before he even places her on the Quest Bed, actually happens after everything else Noir does in that flash, aside from PM showing up), meaning Rose and Dave’s quest for the Sun was interspersed with Aradia and ghost-Sollux waiting for them outside the (existing) Sun.

I got a lot of things wrong in my initial post on the EOA, and I was okay with that. I intended that post to be my own first impressions and interpretations, largely unencumbered by what other people said about it and how other people interpreted it, and I didn’t want to bother re-editing it heavily after reading those other interpretations. In particular, my title said that I didn’t see why people were making a big deal out of Scratch’s “suckers” remark to Gamzee, and if I didn’t still think that after reading what I got wrong I would have changed the title. We already knew that Scratch’s entire MO consisted of manipulating people to serve his own ends. We already knew that Scratch was tricking Rose and others into unleashing an unstoppable universe-eating demon (an aspect of his motivation I don’t think he mentioned to anyone other than the reader and people he’d recruited to serve English directly). While we learned more about his ultimate plan, and that he committed more “lies of omission” than we had thought, I’m not sure we learned that much more about Scratch that we didn’t already know.

But the creation of the Green Sun is important to talk about, and while we can’t really do much more than speculate, we can talk a little bit about the implications, which should serve as a short prelude to the coming Act 6.

Rose’s mission to destroy the Green Sun was given to her by the horrorterrors, Lovecraftian abominations from beyond the Furthest Ring, and Doc Scratch provided her with the details to carry it out. According to their story, the Sun was the source of power for, among others, Jack Noir (and Scratch himself), and destroying it would also serve to avert their own deaths at the hands of some malevolent force. The horrorterrors gave Rose a map to plot a course through the knotted spacetime surrounding the Sun, to arrive at the Sun’s location at just the right time and place.

It now appears that the horrorterrors misled and tricked Rose and Dave into creating the Sun to serve whatever purposes they may have had, with Scratch as their accomplice. It’s anyone’s guess whether they’re actually under any kind of threat, or what their exact aims are, but it’s clear that they’ve screwed over two sessions and possibly many more, with their machinations leading fairly directly to the creation of Doc Scratch and Jack Noir’s omnipotence. Hussie calls all of act 5, and perhaps the entire comic, “the result of a very, very long con by Doc Scratch”; I might go even further. Everything that has completely screwed over the kids and trolls ultimately comes back to the deviousness of one grand enemy, one party that appears to have caused everything, of which Noir is ultimately a minor part. Whether anyone realizes the extent of their machinations remains in doubt.

It’s also clear that the kids and trolls can’t trust anyone, to any extent, except themselves and each other. Rose, with good reason, was very skeptical over whether to trust the horrorterrors, but even after the “grimdark incident” went ahead with the plan anyway, if only because there wasn’t much else to do with the Tumor. Now far from solving their myriad problems, she now bears some accidential responsibility for them, and what reason there may have been to trust that the horrorterrors have had their best interests in mind has gone out the window. Meanwhile, Doc Scratch has repeatedly said he never lies, and going back through his conversations shows that any lies he made about the nature of the Tumor, the Green Sun, and Rose’s mission were by omission, but one would have to parse his conversations very carefully to detect what he’s leaving out.

Everyone in a position to say more about the game world than any player would has proven to be utterly untrustworthy and working against them (though the two characters who inherited first-guardian power during the same flash may provide a sliver of hope). If the combined forces – soon all the surviving trolls will be joined with half the kids outside the Sun, seven in all – do realize the scope of the forces arrayed against them and start aiming to oppose them, they will effectively be flying blind, with their only source of information being the same forces they seek to oppose, which they will need to guess at when they need to do what they say, the opposite, or something else entirely.

This, then, is the central conflict of Act 6, the final substantial act: the efforts of the kids and trolls, working in complete concert for the first time, to oppose and take down their true enemy, which has started to show its face. It is far more difficult than anything the game has challenged them with to this point, with even beginning to effectively oppose them a seemingly impossible task, but one they are faced with nonetheless; only time will tell if they will succeed in accomplishing their goal, or their enemy’s. To the side, PM and perhaps eventually Jade will oppose Jack Noir, but only on the side; though the Noir ruse may prove a critical distaction, and even prevent any potential victory from proving empty, if not complete it, it is no longer the comic’s most important conflict.

But perhaps there’s an even larger story here. In one sense, the creation of the Sun completes the biggest time loop of all, with the crisis faced by the kids leading to the creation of the power behind that crisis, with Doc Scratch engineering the source of his own power. But in an even bigger sense, the Green Sun is the source of one of the most central aspects of the game itself. Perhaps, just perhaps, the greatest time loop of all hasn’t been completed yet, and will only come to fruition with the creation of the game itself.

I may be back later with thoughts on the start of Act 6.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 9

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 12 (November 17):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
  • Prospects: 6-3 v. 4-4. Remember when the Chiefs were 0-3 and widely considered the worst team in the league? Suddenly this game looks pretty good to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Eagles (CBS) and Bears-Raiders (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games (Packers-Lions is an especially bad loss). Bills-Jets is really the only good option, with Bucs-Titans a dark horse and Bengals-Browns very behind. After the protections, NBC isn’t left with very attractive matchups in terms of drawing power.
  • Analysis: Bills-Jets does look pretty good, as both teams are in a three-way tie for the division lead at 5-3. It might also be a more attractive matchup in terms of how name the teams are; the Bills seem more credible than the Chiefs. I doubt it’ll overcome the tentative, but if things break down perfectly it’ll be two teams with the same record as the Steelers at 6-4 while the Chiefs will be below .500 and the four-game winning streak will look like a fluke. At that point, it’ll be very tempting to pull the flex.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Tentative game: None. For the first time ever, the NFL has announced that it is pulling a game out of primetime before the two-week deadline – Colts-Pats has become that sucky. Notably, they haven’t announced a replacement yet, which suggests there are multiple candidates…
  • Protected games: Jets-Redskins (CBS) and Packers-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Saints had the early lead, and may have re-taken it, but Bengals-Steelers has the exact same pair of records. Falcons-Texans is probably third, Titans-Bills and Chiefs-Bears are dark horses, and Ravens-Browns is fading.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and the division lead potentially on the line. A flex isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but one or both teams would have to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Texans-Bengals is the only game involving two teams over .500. Bills-Chargers, Raiders-Packers, Saints-Titans, and Chiefs-Jets are dark horses.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: Not NBC’s biggest-name late-season matchup, but one of the better ones record-wise. Good chance to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Raiders and Packers-Chiefs and that’s it, both involving AFC West teams at .500 (admittedly, same as Ravens-Chargers). Yeah, I’d say Ravens-Chargers is keeping its spot.

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (4-4)
WEST
44-4
56-2
2 tied at 4-4
EAST
35-3
66-3
2 tied at 5-3
SOUTH
26-3
5-3
4-4 5-3
NORTH
16-2
6-2
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (3-5)
SOUTH
46-3
56-2
5-3
EAST
36-2
65-3
4-4
WEST
27-1
5-3
2 tied at 2-6 4-4
NORTH
18-0
4-4
6-2
  • After last year, I realized that the NFL’s new all-divisional-matchups-Week-17 rule, combined with their division-heavy tiebreak structure and desperate desire to only give NBC games guaranteed to still have playoff implications before primetime, severely limited the sorts of games that NBC could show Week 17, to games with playoff implications for both teams. Thus, I’m changing up the format for the Week 17 Playoff Positioning Watch for the second straight year, only listing, in effect, the possible games. More than ever, the actual state of the races is mostly irrelevant; a quick glance at the standings and the slate of games is all that’s necessary, and that’s not very different from what I do for any other week.
  • That makes the Playoff Picture charts I do each week less relevant, but not entirely irrelevant and in some ways more relevant, since I’m likely to refer to them more than the standings while listing the possible games. So for the next week I’ll be running a poll asking whether you would prefer those tables here, or on the NFL Schedule post.
  • Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Titans-Texans, Lions-Packers, Ravens-Bengals, Bucs-Falcons, Bills-Patriots, Chargers-Raiders.

NFL Schedule: Week 9

Gotta get this done earlier next week once Thursday night games start. Vegas seems to disagree with the power rankings a lot, I notice. Favorite playing at home can’t fully explain some of these lines.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#14(4-3) 21¼-23¾ (5-2) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms WW1 92 112 Who would have thought these two teams would be fighting for the division lead? Or that the Bills would be favored?
#25(3-4) 15¼-25¾ (5-3) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 106 137 Why is Houston favored by so much over a team around .500?
(0-7) 18¼-22¼ #18(4-3) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 94 138 Should be easy for the Chiefs to continue their comeback against the stinky Dolphins.
(2-5) 17-28 #20(3-4) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 117 85 Evidently Vegas thinks these teams are separated by a lot more than one win and eight spots.
(6-1) 20¾-16¾ #T23(3-4) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa CMP 139 93 The Niners continue to showcase their surprisingly good team against the floundering Skins.
(4-3) 21-29 (5-3) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Dick Stockton, John Lynch USA 136 86 Saints better come back from the Rams shocker quickly with the division lead on the line.
#12(4-3) 25¾-19¼ (0-8) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora 91 113 Can the Falcons avoid their division mate’s fate against a winless team?
#27(2-5) 17¾-25¼ #19(4-3) Sun 4:05 PM 711 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf CMP 104 139 Showdown of two new quarterbacks on the hot seat quickly.
(5-2) 19¼-22¼ #21(4-3) Sun 4:05 PM 712 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 93 134 Power rankings say Bengals substantially better; Vegas disagrees. Still can’t get no respect.
(5-2) 21-30 (5-2) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver USA 86 94 What luck: same year Eli compares himself to Tom, Giants play Pats… and he may actually be outplaying Brady.
(7-0) 28¼-22¾ #15(4-3) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin WW1 85 92 Bad time to have a heartbreaking loss, entering a game against the best team in the league.
(1-6) 19-22 #30(1-6) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 138 91 Divisional showdown between two Luck contenders.
(5-2) 19½-22½ (6-2) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Ravens embarrassed Steelers in Game 1 of this classic rivalry. Pittsburgh wants revenge, and to prove themselves.
(4-3) 20-27½ (3-4) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 The Eagles get another primetime game to try to move back into playoff position.

Bye:

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 9

Median Expected Score
LSU 18½
Alabama 23

LSU v. Alabama. No. 1 v. No. 2. Two of the best three defenses in the country. A showdown to determine one of the participants in this year’s BCS Title Game.

Oklahoma will have something to say about the eventual outcome.

The Sooners may appear to be a long shot to make it that far; they’ll need a lot of upsets of teams currently undefeated. They can take out Oklahoma State themselves, but they’ll need someone else to take out Stanford, and maybe Boise State and the LSU-Bama loser too. Someone needs to explain to me how the Sooners could be favored on the road against a higher-ranked team (that’s all you need to know about how big a joke the polls are), but while Kansas State was wildly overrated, they were still undefeated, and the way the Sooners crushed them sends them shooting ahead of even LSU in the C Ratings.

Also, bad news for Big East fans: Rutgers has fallen off the Top 25, so your alleged BCS conference now has zero representatives. Better hope those invites work out…

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC BCS Title
8-0 LW: A Rat: .907 B Rating: 49.180 C Rating: 42.477 AP: 2 BCS: 2
The Tide and their top-ranked defense is rested and ready for the big showdown in Tuscaloosa.
2 Oklahoma B12 2010 TCU
7-1 LW: A Rat: .671 B Rating: 47.537 C Rating: 40.844 AP: 7 BCS: 6
A tight loss to Texas Tech doesn’t outweigh three wins over Top 25 teams in the C Ratings.
3 LSU SEC ’06 Boise St.
8-0 LW: A Rat: .852 B Rating: 45.883 C Rating: 40.437 AP: 1 BCS: 1
Not as many wins over good teams hurt the Tigers’ resume, but don’t be too alarmed. Unless Oklahoma blows A&M out of the water, a win over Bama should put you back in the top two.
4 Boise State MWC BCS Title
7-0 LW: A Rat: .796 B Rating: 39.822 C Rating: 34.522 AP: 5 BCS: 5
Boise comes back from the bye for a tune-up against UNLV ahead of a showdown with TCU.
5 Stanford P12 BCS Title
8-0 LW: A Rat: .822 B Rating: 38.563 C Rating: 32.039 AP: 4 BCS: 4
Despite beating USC, Stanford slips even behind idle Boise. Gotta be concerned by a win by only eight, and losses by teams they’ve played. The Oregon schools come to town next.
6 Oklahoma State B12 BCS Title
8-0 LW: A Rat: .720 B Rating: 36.770 C Rating: 31.516 AP: 3 BCS: 3
Oklahoma State is now part of a group of teams well ahead of the pack. But freshly-lost Kansas State will not be easy to put away.
7 Oregon P12 ’09 Boise St.
7-1 LW: A Rat: .656 B Rating: 22.251 C Rating: 18.384 AP: 6 BCS: 8
Another win, another step up. But Washington isn’t Washington State, and Stanford will be far better than even that.
8 Wisconsin B10 Big 10 Title
6-2 LW: A Rat: .591 B Rating: 20.122 C Rating: 15.298 AP: 19 BCS: 20
Uh-oh, could Wisconsin’s season be starting to fall apart? But Ohio State has sneakily recovered from their slow start, and it’s another close loss. Hopefully Purdue will be just what the doctor ordered.
9 Houston USA BCS Bowl
8-0 LW: A Rat: .740 B Rating: 19.688 C Rating: 14.392 AP: 14 BCS: 13
The show Case Keenum put on against Rice caused the whole country to take notice. Could another one be coming against lowly UAB?
10 Michigan B10 BCS Title
7-1 LW: #12 A Rat: .657 B Rating: 16.883 C Rating: 13.621 AP: 13 BCS: 15
Big blowout over the Boilermakers. Now come two three-loss teams before a must-win against Nebraska.
11 Clemson ACC ACC Title
8-1 LW: A Rat: .587 B Rating: 14.170 C Rating: 11.269 AP: 11 BCS: 11
The Tigers got a rude awakening against G-Tech, and now they suddenly face a must-win against Wake Forest if they want to win the Atlantic.
12 Nebraska B10 Big 10 Title
7-1 LW: #21 A Rat: .608 B Rating: 10.690 C Rating: 8.213 AP: 9 BCS: 10
Did you know Nebraska stomped a pretty decent Michigan State team this weekend? The polls did, and so did the C Ratings.
13 South Carolina SEC SEC Title
7-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .606 B Rating: 10.847 C Rating: 8.805 AP: 10 BCS: 9
The SEC undercard bout isn’t – neither team is Top 10 material, especially Arkansas – but it is a tough challenge for the Gamecocks to keep pace with Georgia in the East.
14 Penn State B10 Big 10 Title
8-1 LW: A Rat: .607 B Rating: 8.990 C Rating: 6.976 AP: 16 BCS: 16
It wasn’t pretty, but the Lions got it done for JoePa, and they’re now clear by two in the Woody Hayes division. But their last three opponents won’t be easy, starting with Nebraska after the bye.
15 Virginia Tech ACC ACC Title
8-1 LW: #15 A Rat: .602 B Rating: 9.395 C Rating: 6.940 AP: 12 BCS: 12
The Hokies shouldn’t celebrate Clemson’s misfortune too long. The team that beat them is next, and they want a trip to the conference title game.
16 Southern Miss USA C-USA Title
7-1 LW: A Rat: .622 B Rating: 10.288 C Rating: 6.621 Coaches: 24 BCS: 25
Now the BCS is taking note of the Golden Eagles. But unless they beat East Carolina, they may not even be going to the conference title game.
17 Texas A&M B12 Big 12 Title
5-3 LW: A Rat: .409 B Rating: 8.430 C Rating: 6.120
Heartbreaking loss to Missouri. What’s worse? Now comes a visit to Norman.
18 Toledo MAC MAC Title
5-3 LW: A Rat: .384 B Rating: 7.354 C Rating: 5.506
I wouldn’t guaranteee that the Rockets fall off the rankings next week after a three-point loss to the perennial “Other Positive B Points” team, especially the way everyone took notice of the MAC afterwards.
19 Notre Dame   Bowl Elgblty
5-3 LW: #20 A Rat: .391 B Rating: 6.193 C Rating: 4.668
Blowout win over Navy reminds us all why the Domers are on the Top 25, and now they’re a win against a tough Wake Forest team away from becoming bowl-eligible.
20 Arizona State P12 Pac-12 Title
5-2 LW: #19 A Rat: .488 B Rating: 4.907 C Rating: 2.880 AP: 20 BCS: 19
Okay, so Colorado is so godawful the Sun Devils actually slip after beating them. But a win over UCLA will all but lock up a trip to the inaugural conference title game.
21 Arkansas SEC SEC Title
6-1 LW: #25 A Rat: .571 B Rating: 5.663 C Rating: 2.314 AP: 8 BCS: 7
Other teams’ misfortune causes the Razorbacks to move up despite a tight win over a team struggling to become bowl eligible. Will Steve Spurrier’s team expose them, or will they prove the polls right?
22 Florida State ACC ACC Title
5-3 LW: A Rat: .443 B Rating: 3.958 C Rating: 2.274
You probably forgot about the Seminoles after they followed a loss to mighty Oklahoma with consecutive 35-30 losses to their rivals for the division crown, but they’ve bounced back and a 34-0 drubbing of NC State puts them back on the Top 25.
23 Georgia SEC SEC Title
6-2 LW: A Rat: .485 B Rating: 2.695 C Rating: 2.203 AP: 18 BCS: 18
It wasn’t pretty, but it was a win against their rivals. They shouldn’t have too much trouble with New Mexico State, which is good because they have two very good teams still to come.
24 USC P12 Probation
6-2 LW: #22 A Rat: .462 B Rating: 3.458 C Rating: 2.170 AP: 21 SBNBlog: 22
USC fought valiantly against mighty Stanford and showed why they deserved all the love they got after the Notre Dame win. After crushing Colorado, they’ll get a challenge when Washington comes to the Coliseum.
25 TCU MWC MWC Title
6-2 LW: #27 A Rat: .538 B Rating: 6.781 C Rating: 1.906
An important win over BYU gives the Horned Frogs just enough to move back into the Top 25, with just a trip to Wyoming ahead of the big showdown with Boise State.


26 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Princeton-Yale Title: #26 Georgia Tech (7-2), .482, 3.346, .752

Off Top 25: #27 Rutgers (was #23), #35 Kansas State (was #18)

Watch List: #26 Georgia Tech, #27 Rutgers, Miami (FL)

#27 TCU, Florida State, Michigan State, Syracuse*, Temple, Iowa, Kansas State, Ohio

Other Positive B Ratings: West Virginia*, #37 Iowa, #40 Ohio (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: Michigan State, #35 Kansas State, #41 Temple, #56 Syracuse

Bottom 10: #111 Indiana, #112 UNLV, #113 Kansas, #114 Akron, #115 Buffalo, #116 Florida Atlantic, #117 Tulane, #118 UAB, #119 Memphis, #120 New Mexico

Best game of week: LSU @ Alabama, 5pm PT, CBS

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 8

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-4. Two of the Eagles’ three wins came in the last two weeks, suggesting the Eagles – now tied for second in the NFC East – may be starting to look like the Dream Team we thought they were. This game has a chance to be for the division lead.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Redskins (FOX) and Chargers-Bears (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bucs-Packers is good but lopsided, while Titans-Falcons is a battle of 4-3 teams that probably can’t be trusted to pop a rating. Bengals-Ravens is interesting, as it’s a battle of 5-2 teams, and while the Bengals are a bunch of no-names they could very easily not only make the playoffs, but make noise in it.
  • Analysis: If the Eagles beat the Bears Monday night the tentative is going to be kept. In fact, I’d argue the only way for the tentative to lose its spot is for both teams involved to lose and the Bengals and Ravens to win. Then they’d not only be 6-2 but tied for the division lead, while Eagles-Giants would be 5-3 v. 3-5. But would even that overcome two big markets vs. two small markets and the Bengals’ collection of no-names?
  • Final prediction: Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (no change).

Week 12 (November 17):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
  • Prospects: 6-2 v. 4-3. Remember when the Chiefs were 0-3 and widely considered the worst team in the league? Suddenly this game looks very good to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Eagles (CBS) and Bears-Raiders (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games (Packers-Lions is an especially bad loss). Bills-Jets and Bucs-Titans are the only good options, with Bengals-Browns a dark horse; of those, Bills-Jets is the best game and still isn’t as good as the tentative. After the protections, NBC isn’t left with very attractive matchups in terms of drawing power.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ New England
  • Prospects: It’s the Colts and the Patriots, the NFL’s biggest current rivalry! …What’s that? Peyton Manning’s injured and the Colts are 0-8 and got blown out 62-0 their last time on Sunday night (to a team that lost to the winless Rams the following week!), causing football to lose to another sport in the ratings for the first time in forever? Yeeeeah, this is getting flexed out unless Manning comes back before then, and even then this would have to be the very game he comes back, which probably won’t be known two weeks in advance.
  • Protected games: Jets-Redskins (CBS) and Packers-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Saints had the early lead, but record-wise at least, the race is tighter than you think; Bengals-Steelers is a battle of two-loss teams, and Titans-Bills differs only in the byes. Falcons-Texans and Chiefs-Bears are also options, and Ravens-Browns is a dark horse.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and the division lead potentially on the line. A flex isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but one or both teams would have to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bills-Chargers, Raiders-Packers, Saints-Titans, Texans-Bengals, Chiefs-Jets. Many of these would be good enough to get the flex in a sufficiently weak week, but would Giants-Cowboys qualify?

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: Not NBC’s biggest-name late-season matchup, but one of the better ones record-wise. Good chance to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Raiders and Packers-Chiefs and that’s it. Yeah, I’d say Ravens-Chargers is keeping its spot.

Week 17 (January 1):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

NFL Schedule: Week 8

Here’s the schedule, finally, mere hours before the games begin. A lot fewer ties in the RCS rankings this week. For the record, I updated the lineal title page for the Packers’ bye a little over 24 hours before this post.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#T3(5-2) 30½-17 #30(0-6) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan, Jennifer Hale 91 138 Can the Saints light up the scoreboard against a winless team two weeks in a row?
(0-6) 16-26 (4-2) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf CMP 136 86 Dysfunctional Dolphins just try to survive their second trip to the New Met.
#25(2-5) 15½-25 (4-3) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 112 92 Can the Jaguars maintain the momentum of the Ravens upset against the division leaders?
(1-5) 15¼-27¾ (4-2) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Sam Rosen, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin WW1 137 93 The Ravens need to recover from the Monday night debacle; will the floundering Cards help?
#27(1-6) 21½-25 #23(2-5) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 113 94 Two teams looking to pick up their disappointing seasons.
(0-7) 17½-26 #22(3-3) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots USA 117 85 Manning-less Colts could be just what the doctor ordered after that devastating loss to Houston.
(5-2) 22¼-19¼ #26(2-4) Sun 4:05 PM 711 Dick Stockton, John Lynch, Jamie Maggio 135 92 Will the Lions defense give Tim Tebow a rude awakening?
#21(3-3) 20¼-25¼ (4-2) Sun 4:05 PM 710 Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver CMP 134 93 The Redskins try not to lose their season in Toronto.
#14(4-2) 19½-18 (2-4) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker USA 112 94 The Bengals are quietly impressive. But how much of it is playing teams like the Hawks?
(5-1) 27½-25 (5-2) Sun 4:15 PM 712 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms WW1 91 86 Showdown between possibly the two best teams in the AFC – now and the past few years.
(3-3) 14¾-23¾ #T3(5-1) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 113 85 Are the Niners really this good? Well, they should have no trouble with the Browns.
(3-3) 22¾-25¾ #19(2-4) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Divisional showdown between two teams fighting for playoff relevancy.
(4-2) 23½-20½ #20(3-3) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 If the Chiefs want to get back on track, they’d better get past the class of the division.

Bye:

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 8

I take back what I said about all full rankings coming in PDF form from now on. My laptop is incredibly slow at calculating the rankings. Even the super-slow school computers are faster. If I have to calculate the rankings at home, I’ll use the computer I’ve used from the start that only creates RTFs (unless I can get a bunch of programs closed, but I’m skeptical that’ll help).

After last weekend’s upsets, the national championship picture is starting to clear up. Barring upsets, there will be a national semifinal next week in primetime. Their opponent? Stanford, then either Boise State or a one-loss team. Oklahoma State and our other lineal title holders may have something to say about that, but most people expect the Big 12 teams and Oregon to lose (Kansas State potentially this weekend) and the ACC and Big East to be disrespected.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC BCS Title
8-0 LW: A Rat: .907 B Rating: 52.786 C Rating: 46.078 AP: 2 BCS: 2
Alabama showed the teams below them who’s boss with a huge blowout of Tennessee. Now they get a week to prepare for the showdown with LSU.
2 LSU SEC ’06 Boise St.
8-0 LW: A Rat: .852 B Rating: 46.800 C Rating: 41.451 AP: 1 BCS: 1
Huge win over an overrated Auburn team, but they will need the week off before the trip to Tuscaloosa.
3 Stanford P12 BCS Title
7-0 LW: A Rat: .868 B Rating: 40.987 C Rating: 34.271 AP: 4 BCS: 6
“Won’t go away easily” my ass! Blowout over the Huskies plus big upsets means the Cardinal are now in national championship position.
4 Boise State MWC BCS Title
7-0 LW: A Rat: .796 B Rating: 38.385 C Rating: 33.063 AP: 5 BCS: 4
Not the most impressive performance against Air Force. They’ll want to get their practice licks in against UNLV, because the TCU game is huge.
5 Oklahoma B12 BCS Title
6-1 LW: A Rat: .646 B Rating: 28.949 C Rating: 24.346 AP: 11 BCS: 9
Losing to mediocre Texas Tech at home certainly looks bad, but I always say never to overreact to a single loss, especially by a field goal. You thought they were that good, they can’t be that bad now.
6 Oklahoma State B12 BCS Title
7-0 LW: A Rat: .709 B Rating: 27.169 C Rating: 23.106 AP: 3 BCS: 3
I don’t think anyone really thinks Oklahoma State is really this good. But they do keep impressing with a huge win over a decent Missouri team.
7 Wisconsin B10 BCS Title
6-1 LW: A Rat: .718 B Rating: 25.048 C Rating: 20.074 AP: 12 BCS: 15
See what I said about Oklahoma, with the added element that Michigan State is substantially better than Texas Tech. Now comes a not-as-big-as-it-could-be clash with Ohio State.
8 Oregon P12 ’09 Boise St.
6-1 LW: A Rat: .652 B Rating: 20.947 C Rating: 17.981 AP: 7 BCS: 7
Impressive blowout over Colorado. But now they get progressively better opponents in the Washington schools.
9 Clemson ACC Prncton/Yale
8-0 LW: A Rat: .708 B Rating: 19.883 C Rating: 16.197 AP: 6 BCS: 5
Fairly tight game against an only-decent North Carolina team. But G-Tech is the best opponent they’ve faced so far.
10 Houston USA BCS Bowl
7-0 LW: #15 A Rat: .736 B Rating: 14.737 C Rating: 10.372 AP: 18 BCS: 17
Marshall is pretty bad, but Houston put on a show, and combine that with losses by other teams and it’s another five-spot jump for the Cougars.
11 Texas A&M B12 Big 12 Title
5-2 LW: A Rat: .483 B Rating: 12.896 C Rating: 10.275 AP: 16 BCS: 16
Big win over Iowa State, but Missouri will be substantially tougher.
12 Michigan B10 BCS Title
6-1 LW: A Rat: .637 B Rating: 12.586 C Rating: 9.728 AP: 17 BCS: 18
Drop for idle hands made worse by opponents not doing their best. Now Purdue serves as a warm-up for Iowa.
13 Penn State B10 Big 10 Title
7-1 LW: A Rat: .602 B Rating: 9.118 C Rating: 7.420 AP: 21 BCS: 19
Not sure why a modest ten-point win over mediocre Northwestern results in such a big jump in the C Ratings and AP Poll – other teams losing don’t explain it all. But now to justify it against Illinois.
14 South Carolina SEC SEC Title
6-1 LW: #20 A Rat: .569 B Rating: 9.241 C Rating: 6.870 AP: 14 BCS: 13
Despite idle hands, big wins by their opponents (Vandy over Army, Kentucky over a I-AA team that doesn’t matter for A Rating purposes) send them rocketing up the ratings. Now to justify it against Tennessee.
15 Virginia Tech ACC Big 12 Title
7-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .597 B Rating: 9.078 C Rating: 6.785 AP: 15 BCS: 12
Followed the big win over Wake Forest with a blowout over BC. Now a trip to Duke ahead of an important showdown with Georgia Tech.
16 Southern Miss USA C-USA Title
6-1 LW: #27 A Rat: .600 B Rating: 8.372 C Rating: 5.403 Coaches: 25
Is C-USA better than you think? A blowout win over SMU have people noticing the Golden Eagles have only a single tight loss with some pretty big wins. How big could the title game be?
17 Toledo MAC MAC Title
5-3 LW: #18 A Rat: .384 B Rating: 6.961 C Rating: 5.318
Big win over Miami (OH). Will a Tuesday night nationally televised win over Northern Illinois cause the pollsters to take notice?
18 Kansas State B12 2010 TCU
7-0 LW: #23 A Rat: .684 B Rating: 7.929 C Rating: 5.286 AP: 10 BCS: 8
Huge win over their rivals in their first game in the Top 25. But who wants to bet the Sooners will own them?
19 Arizona State P12 Pac-12 Title
5-2 LW: #21 A Rat: .444 B Rating: 4.848 C Rating: 4.081 AP: 23 BCS: 21
Teams losing (and opponents winning) mean the Sun Devils move up despite idle hands, and with woeful Colorado coming to the desert, they could move up substantially.
20 Notre Dame   Bowl Elgblty
4-3 LW: #12 A Rat: .337 B Rating: 5.120 C Rating: 4.003
We were already rating the Golden Domers far higher than most people, and after being blown out by USC this looks all the more dubious. But when they look good they look very good, and they’ll have a chance to look good against Navy.
21 Nebraska B10 Big 10 Title
6-1 LW: A Rat: .566 B Rating: 5.801 C Rating: 3.590 AP: 13 BCS: 14
Nebraska slips substantially despite winning! But a blowout of a godawful Minnesota team doesn’t outweigh the first-loss effect on Wisconsin.
22 USC P12 Probation
6-1 LW: #35 A Rat: .542 B Rating: 4.918 C Rating: 3.099 AP: 20 SBNBlog: 21
If the Trojans are this good with nothing to play for and most of the upperclassmen having departed when the sanctions came down, imagine how good they’ll be next year! BCS or bust for the Trojans next year! Could they upset Stanford?
23 Rutgers BST Big East Title
5-2 LW: #22 A Rat: .452 B Rating: 3.290 C Rating: 2.325
The Knights can’t slip too much losing by only two. If they beat a West Virginia team still ranked in the polls, it’ll more than make up for it.
24 Georgia SEC SEC Title
5-2 LW: #26 A Rat: .469 B Rating: 2.074 C Rating: 1.907 AP: 22 BCS: 22
The Bulldogs didn’t play last week, but other teams losing put them in the top 25, just in time for the World’s Largest Cocktail Party – which they have the edge in for once.
25 Arkansas SEC SEC Title
6-1 LW: #25 A Rat: .572 B Rating: 4.434 C Rating: 1.794 AP: 8 BCS: 10
Nice modest win over Ole Miss, better than some other teams did. Beat Vanderbilt to keep pace in the West.


29 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #27 TCU (was ), #30 Georgia Tech (was #19), West Virginia (was )

Watch List: #26 Miami (FL), #27 TCU, Florida State, Michigan State, #30 Georgia Tech, Syracuse*

Other Positive B Ratings: #35 Temple, #37 Iowa, #42 Ohio (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: West Virginia, #33 Washington, #41 Missouri, #44 Utah State, #45 Texas, #57 Northern Illinois

Bottom 10: #111 Colorado, #112 Idaho, #113 Buffalo, #114 UNLV, #115 Akron, #116 UAB, #117 Florida Atlantic, #118 Tulane, #119 Memphis, #120 New Mexico

Best game of week: Oklahoma @ Kansas State, 12:30pm PT, ESPN

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 7

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Tentative game: New England @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 5-1 v. 4-3; this is becoming one of the hottest rivalries in the AFC, but who are the Jets? Still, this is now a battle of two teams with winning records, rare for tentatives this year.
  • Protected games according to the506: Saints-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Giants-49ers (4-2 v. 5-1), Lions-Bears (5-2 v. 4-3), Texans-Bucs (4-3 v. 4-3), Steelers-Bengals (5-2 v. 4-2), Bills-Cowboys (4-2 v. 3-3).
  • Analysis: Giants-Niners is the best game, but the Niners aren’t a name team, which could kill their ability to overcome the tentative game bias – 5-2 v. 6-1 is hard to pass up, but can it overcome a 5-2 v. 4-3 tentative? Steelers-Bengals may have even more to overcome, and Lions-Bears, while an attractive NFC North matchup, can’t do better than 6-2 v. 4-3, a half-game better than the worst Pats-Jets can do.
  • Final prediction: New England Patriots @ New York Jets (no change).

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 2-4. If the not-so-Dream Team continues to be a nightmare, this has a pretty good chance to be flexed out, despite the NFC East factor.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Redskins (FOX) and Chargers-Bears (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bucs-Packers is good but lopsided, Bengals-Ravens features a team people don’t trust to be as good as 4-2, and Titans-Falcons has the worst of both worlds. Right now, the tentative is likely to stay put.

Week 12 (November 17):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-3. Time will tell if the Chiefs are about to rally from their disastrous start. It might not take much for this game to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Eagles (CBS) and Bears-Raiders (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games (Packers-Lions is an especially bad loss). Bills-Jets and Bucs-Titans are the only good options, with Bengals-Browns a dark horse and Broncos-Chargers possible based on Tim Tebow’s performance. After the protections, NBC isn’t left with very attractive matchups in terms of drawing power.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ New England
  • Prospects: It’s the Colts and the Patriots, the NFL’s biggest current rivalry! …What’s that? Peyton Manning’s injured and the Colts are 0-7 and got blown out 62-0 their last time on Sunday night, causing football to lose to another sport in the ratings for the first time in forever? Yeeeeah, this is getting flexed out unless Manning comes back before then, and even then this would have to be the very game he comes back, which probably won’t be known two weeks in advance.
  • Protected games: Jets-Redskins (CBS) and Packers-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Saints has the early lead; Bengals-Steelers, Falcons-Texans, and Chiefs-Bears are also options, and Ravens-Browns and Titans-Bills are dark horses.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and the division lead potentially on the line. A flex isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but one or both teams would have to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bills-Chargers, Raiders-Packers, Saints-Titans, Texans-Bengals. Chiefs-Jets is a dark horse, and Bears-Broncos could become an interloper if Tim Tebow does well.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: Not NBC’s biggest-name late-season matchup, but possibly the best record-wise, a battle of 4-2 teams when no other tentative has more than one team better than 4-3. Good chance to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Raiders. That’s it. Yeah, Packers-Chiefs is a dark horse, but I’d say Ravens-Chargers is keeping its spot.

Week 17 (January 1):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

On the other hand, um, Doc Scratch playing everyone is a shocking development? Um, didn’t we know that already?

(From MS Paint Adventures: Homestuck. Click for full-sized replacement curtains.)

Sixteen months ago, Homestuck, the current installment of MS Paint Adventures, started its fifth act. Thirteen months ago, it started the second act of that fifth act. Two months ago, MSPA went completely silent as Andrew Hussie worked on the flash to end the act, and just shy of the one-year anniversary of the start of Act 5-2, released a few extra, contentless pages to tide people over. To put all of that in perspective, Homestuck has only been going on for two and a half years, so Act 5 has taken up over half its lifespan, and Act 5-2 has come pretty close. What’s more, Act 5 has done more than that to make Homestuck what it is; it was Act 5-1 that gave us a proper introduction to the trolls, who practically define Homestuck‘s appeal at this point.

And now, after all that time, it has finally come to an end.

The end of such a momentous period in the “comic’s” history should be with a bang, and on this Hussie more than delivered, with a Flash animation so long (13 minutes) it had to be hosted on Newgrounds (which it then proceeded to crash when first uploaded), starts with a card that divides it into seven parts, can be paused (something that hasn’t happened for any previous flash), comes with its own modified site design, and eventually spills over to cover up its own title. Hussie has said in the past that he intended to keep pushing the envelope with what he could do with Homestuck, constantly trying to make it bigger, better, more spectacular, and this seems to be the sort of thing he was talking about. Rose and alternate-Vriska’s fights with Noir were originally going to be an epic Flash animation, but it took so long to put together the idea was scrapped in favor of starting the Scratch interlude early; I almost feel like this animation would feel less jarring if that animation had come to fruition. The only previous flash that would come close was the flash at the end of Act 4, and that was a long time ago.

Leading up to the flash, Hussie published a series of pages depicting Jade and Noir watching the Courtyard Droll touching down near their location and setting off a Barbasol bomb. (Turns out, stealing John’s dad’s wallet from the Wayward Vagabond without his ring or the Tumor inside was just as planned after all!) The frog tadpole they were with fell into some lava, and Jade fell to the ground, dead. Noir’s reaction is, in some sense, the culmination of a plot thread that hasn’t even been running that long. We only got a real look at Noir’s post-omnipotence mindset back in February, when we learned of his boredom with nothing to do except kill and his frustration with the dog-like thoughts Bec’s prototyping left him with, including loyalty and love towards Jade. So he tried to get his underlings to kill Jade for him. But during the Scratch interlude, he went as far as following Jade around everywhere (which did give him the opportunity to stomp on a lot of frogs), and now he gets upset and ultimately kills the Droll off-screen for following his own orders to the letter.

Noir then starts trying to destroy the universe, leaves Jade on a Quest Bed, and takes off to hide in the frog temple, where he proceeds to kill most of the Exiles. The Aimless Renegade does manage to destroy the vessels they arrived in, but gets killed before he destroys the one the Wayward Vagabond is in, though not to save his life as Noir simply pops in and rips out the uranium in his belly. Then – by all appearances – the circumstances under which Noir entered the trolls’ session prove to be very different from what most people anticipated, as Noir appears to simply put the uranium in its place and up and leave the Vagabond’s vessel, and pops up in the trolls’ session. This leaves a number of questions unanswered, foremost among them why Noir showed up in the trolls’ session, and how he showed up through what the trolls called a Scratch.

The now god-tiered Jade – whose dog ears suggest she still has everything her dreamself inherited when she was used to prototype her sprite, meaning she now has the powers of Bec plus god-tier powers and the knowledge of a Sprite, and (presumably) the omniscience that comes with combining the powers of Bec with a sentient being like Jade that Doc Scratch has shown – proceeds to shrink down and juggle the Battlefield and all four planets, keeping a promise to save all the denizens, as well as retrieve John after he completes the Scratch (which actually starts the Beat Mesa headed towards Skaia), and then forms a rectangle with her fingers, which forms a fenstrated wall that flashes images from an earlier, relatively more innocent time in the comic (the first time, surprisingly enough, I’ve ever felt the comic’s flashes were of lower image quality than its static or animated images), and at the very end of the flash, she takes the ship which John and herself are on, and literally breaks through the fourth wall, with the last image of the flash, displayed by the wall, being the very first page of the comic. (I’m a little surprised the flash doesn’t contain an Easter egg linking back to that first page; several of the normal interface links at the top do, but that seems like a bug.)

This leaves plausible a whole mess of implausible theories, including previously suggested ones, about John and Jade’s ultimate destination and Hussie’s “one yard” of direct influence (apparently shaking the life out of Scratch and creating the opportunity for Aradia’s ancestor’s attempted escape doesn’t count), including one I once read on TV Tropes that suggested they would literally land in Hussie’s back yard. More likely however, John and Jade will simply burst through the two fourth walls Hussie set up one yard apart, and likely end up somewhere near the comic’s beginning.

I also suspect we haven’t gotten the whole story as to why Noir feels “exiled” or “tricked” into the trolls’ session. The interpretation most directly suggested by the flash is that it’s a result of his shame at god-tiering Jade, but we had earlier been told that Noir destroyed the trolls’ Prospit, Derse, and all the planets to prevent the mistakes leading to his banishment; I don’t see any “outsmarting” of Noir going on that would have led to his banishment as depicted, or even anything that Noir’s biased perspective would construe as “outsmarting”; everything he does to enter the trolls’ session, he does of his own volition. That tells me either Hussie made a mistake trying to misdirect the audience, or I’ll be writing another post on it down the line. Could it be that Noir’s mistake is more specifically related to what Jade does after being god-tiered, or alternately and less likely, to leaving the Peregrine Mendicant alive (more on that in a bit)? Or could it be the destruction of the Green Sun (er, well, more on that in a bit) or the scratch, which he travelled back in time to postpone or obviate?

Meanwhile (whatever that word means in this comic), with the Draconian Dignitary killed by Dave off-screen, both Dave and Rose make their way to the Green Sun, where they find, inexplicably, two Quest Beds waiting for them (or rather, inside Derse’s moon, but the flash seems to indicate otherwise). Once deployed, the Tumor cracks open to show that it is apparently powered by the destruction of both the kids’ and trolls’ universes, and may in fact contain them. After the Green Sun is destroyed (as a sign of how confusing the flash is, apparently the intent is that the Tumor actually creates the Green Sun, but that’s hard to convey without dialogue), Dave and Rose pop out god-tiered (who wants to bet someone’s calling “deus ex machina”?) in front of Aradia and the ghost of a future-dead Sollux. After the living trolls notice the glow of the Sun’s destruction (er, creation), Sollux is shown completely freaking out with his eye sockets flashing black and white, which I actually originally interpreted as something his ghost with Aradia was doing because of the similar color scheme, but which I later realized was him living up to his ancestor’s example.

Oh, and the Peregrine Mendicant recovers the ring from the Wayward Vagabond’s corpse and is shown challenging Noir, apparently coming the same way he did, but showing up ten hours and twenty-five minutes later, and apparently bringing WV’s body with her (if you look closely). Between her and the possibility of “dog-tier” Jade joining the fight, this comic is starting to look like an episode of Dragonball Z (without, of course, the long drawn-out multi-episode fight scenes… hopefully). Seriously, three nigh-omnipotent beings?

All told, the end of Act 5 lived up to every expectation it had to to wrap up something as epic as Act 5 itself was, wrapping up most of the act’s individual plot points and completely shaking up the status quo. But it didn’t answer every question, and it raised more than a few questions of its own. One particularly glaring omission? The flash barely even hints at Lord English.

Reflecting on the end of one of the defining elements of my life

(Note: This post was originally going to have pictures, but I seem to have lost a second data cable for my phone. With luck I may have pictures in time for the Blog-day post at the end of the year.)

As I mentioned in the third-ever post in the history of Da Blog, for the early part of my life I was a sort of vagabond. After living my first four years in the same house, over the succeeding years I moved to Los Angeles, the Seattle suburb of Issaquah, and Seattle itself, living a year in each place. Then in 1996 I moved again, this time just across the freeway from my previous place. This time, I would stay for more than a year. Much more.

Over half my life – indeed nearly two-thirds of my life – has been spent in that little hidden-away place as part of what might best be described as a quadruplex near Seattle’s University District. I moved in just before entering the third grade, and would complete elementary school, middle school, and high school there, as well as attend close to five years of college. I developed my habits there, cultivated my interests, discovered new ideas, started a blog. That house was where I discovered who I was and what I wanted to be. For a time I moved out and lived in a dorm room, but it was not meant to be, and after a few months I was back at the house where I started, where Da Blog became what it is today, whatever that is.

A few months ago my mom inherited a house in Issaquah when her mom died. Mom, not wanting to be anyone’s landlord, decided to move there herself, which meant I would have to come with her. And so it was that this past weekend, we packed up and moved away from my home of 15 years, bringing to a close a somewhat momentous era in my life.

I’d be lying if I said it wasn’t a sobering moment, but I also have plenty of reason to look ahead. The area around the old house has changed over the years, and as I’ve chronicled on Da Blog in the past, I’ve had more than a few run-ins with obnoxious college student neighbors the past few years. This new house has no shared walls with anyone but people I already know. As it sets up, it also has a fairly private area for me to set up and do whatever I need to do, whether it’s on the computer, reading, or whatever; I effectively have an “office” for me to work in. On the other hand, a fairly lengthy commute to school is going to get even lengthier, and it looks like we’re going to add a dog at some point; I’ve never gotten along with dogs.

Although one era of my life has come to an end, a new one is just beginning, and I have every hope and expectation that this new home will provide the foundation upon which Da Blog will finally take off and I will achieve my success. Of course, I’ve said that sort of thing a bajillion times before, and this new home comes with something of a bad omen. I was already close before living in the Seattle area, but this new home is just eleven miles or so from the coordinates of the home of John from Homestuck.

Which spookily enough, brings me to my first real post from my new home…