Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 9

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ Chicago.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 6-2 v. 4-4, so getting lopsided, but the Steelers are defending champs and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games. Colts-Texans, at 8-0 v. 5-4, is the only game involving two teams over .500.
  • Analysis: Both games are lopsided to a similar extent. Colts-Texans has the undefeated factor, but it also has the same issue going against it that the Colts had last week, and the Texans aren’t a team that can draw the audience. On the up side, it would be taking a game from CBS either way, but if you asked CBS whether they liked Steelers-Ravens, even with the Ravens at 4-5, or Colts-Texans, methinks they would rather have Steelers-Ravens, and methinks NBC and the NFL will likely think the same way.
  • Final prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (no change).

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Miami
  • Prospects: 6-2 v. 3-5. This game is officially lopsided.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons and Vikings-Cardinals each pit a 3-loss team against a team with the same number of losses or fewer. Eagles-Falcons involves two teams with the same record but Vikings-Cardinals is better overall and has the Favre factor.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and while it doesn’t currently have the NFC East lead on the line it’s still a battle of playoff contenders. Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot – the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to 5-3 v. 5-4. However, there are strong flex contenders…
  • Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons remain strong contenders. Broncos-Colts is still the most compelling candidate to flex away from Eagles-Giants (even if the Broncos are no longer unbeaten), given the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex – but with the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings at 6-2 v. 7-1 looks mighty compelling, and Saints-Falcons not only has a non-undefeated team almost as good as the Broncos, it might be the Saints’ best chance for a loss all year.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
  • Prospects: Keeps getting lopsided, with the Vikings 7-1 and the Panthers 3-5. There are better chances to worship at the Favre altar the previous two weeks, against teams that are actually winning, not to mention the Giants Week 17 if that game has playoff implications.
  • Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Falcons-Jets is in trouble, but 49ers-Eagles is suffering as the Niners have a losing record. Bears-Ravens is in trouble again with both teams moving to .500 (and the Bears have already moved below that). Those are mediocre enough games that Vikings-Panthers might keep its spot yet.

Week 16 (December 27)

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
  • Prospects: Lopsided at 6-2 v. 2-6, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
  • Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles and Jets-Colts. Right now the main attraction of those games is the now-beaten Broncos playing 5-3 Philadelphia, and the unbeaten Colts playing a Jets team that is stumbling, but despite the Eagles losing, Broncos-Eagles could be very alive with the two teams separated by one loss. Jags-Patriots is back alive as a dark horse.

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

  • With no winless teams and every team playing eight games at most, every team is mathematically in every race.
  • AFC East: Patriots lead, Jets two back, Dolphins and Bills a game behind that. New England plays Houston, the Jets play Cincinnati, Miami plays Pittsburgh and the Bills play the Colts.
  • AFC North: Bengals and Steelers tied, Ravens two back. The Bengals play the Jets, while the Steelers play the Dolphins and Baltimore plays Oakland.
  • AFC South: Colts running away with it; Texans 3 1/2 back, Jags 4 back. The Colts play Buffalo while the Texans play New England and the Jags play the Browns.
  • AFC West: Broncos lead, Chargers a game back. The Broncos play the Chiefs while the Chargers play the Redskins.
  • AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, the loser of the AFC North would get the nod along with the Chargers, with the Texans a half-game behind the Chargers and the Jets, Ravens, and Jags a half-game behind that. The Dolphins and Bills are waiting in the wings. Bengals-Jets and Texans-Patriots the main AFC contenders.
  • NFC East: Cowboys lead, Eagles a game back, Giants a half-game behind Eagles. Cowboys and Eagles play each other, while the Giants play the Vikings.
  • NFC North: Vikings lead by 3 games over Packers and Bears (with the Bears sinking a half-game behind the Packers tonight). The Vikings play the Giants while the Packers play the Cardinals and the Bears play the Lions.
  • NFC South: Saints lead by 3 over Falcons. The Saints and Panthers play each other, as do the Falcons and Bucs.
  • NFC West: Cardinals lead by 2 over 49ers (now 1 1/2 games back) and Seahawks. Arizona plays Green Bay, while the Niners play the Rams and the Seahawks play the Titans.
  • NFC Wild Card: Eagles and Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Giants a half-game back and the Packers and Bears a half-game behind that (Bears now a full game behind Giants). The Panthers, Niners (just moving a half-game closer), and Seahawks wait in the wings, indicating Panthers-Saints may have dark horse appeal. The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles, Giants-Vikings, and possibly Packers-Cardinals, but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to primetime, so we’ll see how the rest of the season plays out.

Why I’m undecided about the public option

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I’m a bit of a bleeding-heart liberal. Maybe it just comes with the territory of living in Seattle. But I try to keep my ears open to the ideas of competing political ideologies.

So as much as I think the health care system needs reform and as much as I align myself more with the Democrats’ priorities than the Republicans’… I’m still not sure how big a fan I am of the Dems’ leading proposal to combat the depredations of the health insurance industry, the public option.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m all for making sure as many people as possible have health insurance and that the people who need health insurance the most aren’t excluded and the health insurance system doesn’t attempt to cover only the people who won’t actually use their service, and I could be swayed to the side of the public option as the way to do that. I’m just not entirely convinced the public option is the way to go on that front – even though many countries outside the United States, especially in Europe, go even further and have nationalized health insurance completely.

The idea behind the public option is to create competition with the insurance companies (although many proposed public options in Congress would be open only to people who can’t afford insurance otherwise, making it more of a safety net than true competition) so they would have to stop raising rates to the moon lest people bolt to the public option, without artificial regulations against such things that would require enforcement and might be circumvented. Much as I like the idea, I’m not sure how insurance companies could ever compete with something backed by the government. (Even though the US Postal Service allows the likes of FedEx and UPS to exist.)

Here’s the thing: The health insurance industry currently enjoys exemption from anti-trust regulations.

That’s been mentioned a few times in this debate, but I’m not sure anyone really appreciates its significance. Capitalism and the free market may be riddled with problems, but we haven’t even tried it yet when it comes to health care. If we lifted the health insurance anti-trust exemption, which has proven itself to not be in the public interest, and made it as easy as possible to change health insurance plans, and created things such as co-ops to ensure there would be someone doing whatever we wanted done, we wouldn’t need the public option to create competition or even lift the ban on banning pre-existing conditions. Health insurance cost too much? Someone else is probably charging less. Can’t get insurance because of a pre-existing condition? Someone else will take you in. Had insurance dropped once you got sick? Someone else will cover you.

The health care/insurance reform bills circulating in Congress seem like they’re trying to take many different approaches to the same problem – creating an “exchange” to buy health insurance and ending pre-existing condition prohibitions and creating a public option, for example. There’s little recognition of the wisdom of FDR, who tried one thing to fix the Depression, and when that didn’t work, tried another. I’m not sure the Democrats need to take so many, and so many relatively radical, approaches to the health care system.

Now tell me why I’m wrong.

2009 College Football Rankings – Week 9

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Up to this point, the big story in the C Ratings was that, unusually, no one team was pulling away. The Big Four of Texas, Florida, Alabama, and disrespected Cincinnati kept trading spots. That’s still the case, but now one team has fallen far enough behind the others to fall behind a fifth team, and it’s a doozy – at least considering how much not only the C Ratings, but the whole country, loved them just two weeks – and only one game – ago.

That team is Alabama, and they are solely the victims of a lackluster effort against Tennessee. In some ways it’s unfair for them to drop down, as they had a bye last week – but that bye only dropped them back down to the same number of games the others had. Alabama is now a full eight points behind Cincinnati in the C Rating, a Cincinnati team that is two points behind Florida. If Texas can maintain their current tear, maybe they can be the team that starts pulling away; after leading Florida by only two last week, the satisfying performance the Longhorns had against a good Oklahoma State team gives them a five-point edge this week.

Perhaps, with a good enough performance against an LSU team that can steal the SEC West, Alabama can come roaring back into the Top 4. But perhaps, with the way the Tide have played recently, they’ve set themselves up to fall, and fall hard.

Meanwhile, the team that leapfrogged Alabama may be just as much a story as Alabama’s woes: TCU. The unbeaten Horned Frogs are playing in a year of one of the biggest gaps between the BCS and non-BCS schools since I’ve kept conference ratings and haven’t played Utah, the only other Mountain West team in the Top 25, yet. The unspoken real driving force of TCU’s success, especially in the BCS computers where their ranking is comparable to Cincinnati and Oregon while Boise State languishes further back, isn’t their performance against grossly overrated (yet still good in the A Ratings) BYU or their lackluster performance against Air Force. It’s in their nonconference ACC opposition, especially the way they manhandled Virginia. I’m not ready to pick them for the national title game, but they are a good argument for a playoff. Once again, this week’s rankings do not include games already played.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking the difference between the team’s B Rating and his conference’s rating, taking a fraction of that equal to the fraction of Division I-A the conference makes up, and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Texas (8-0)
Big 12 Leader		 .806 44.655 39.523 Oklahoma State entered last week in 16th place in the C Ratings, after a big bump up from 27th. After the beating Texas gave them, they fall right back down to 26th.
2 Florida (8-0)
SEC Leader
Princeton-Yale Title		 .808 38.870 34.728 Florida gave Georgia an ass-whoopin’ (and eye-pokin’). Too bad Georgia isn’t the Georgia everyone expects them to be at the start of every season. Otherwise the Gators might have overcome what Texas did.
3 Cincinnati (8-0)
Big East Leader		 .808 34.697 32.363 The Big East has a better record than the Big 12 in nonconference play and is 2-0 against that conference, while having a better record against good teams than the SEC. Better kick them out of the BCS.
4 TCU (8-0)
Non-BCS Leader		 .807 30.359 26.201 Sure, it was 3-6 UNLV, but 41-0 is 41-0, especially when the team ahead of you took the week off. San Diego State is little more than a tune-up for a big showdown with Utah.
5 Alabama (8-0) .801 27.164 24.193 Bama has a pretty good chance to move back into the top four against LSU… assuming they win. If they need the refs to bail them out, what will that mean for their chances going forward?
6 Oregon (7-1)
Pac-10 Leader
2006 Boise State Title		 .614 23.450 20.431 “But Boise State beat Oregon handily ON THE FIELD! Even the polls know that!” But the way the system works, the Ducks are more likely to make the title game – and keep in mind, that game was on the blue turf.
7 Boise State (8-0) .817 23.939 19.945 BSU is still a team that was good enough TO beat the presumptive Pac-10 champions fairly handily, even if it was at home. But they’ll likely be shut out of the BCS entirely by the team that beat them in the Poinsettia Bowl last year.
8 Penn State (8-1)
Big Ten Leader		 .720 21.591 18.624 “But Iowa beat Penn State in State College ON THE FIELD! Even the polls know that!” But since then, the Hawkeyes have been on the seat of their pants while PSU picked up big road wins over 5-4 teams.
9 Iowa (9-0) .720 21.591 18.624 The Cardiac Hawkeyes’ struggles finally catch up to them in the C Ratings as Penn State passes them, and the AP poll has them 8th behind my top seven. When will the coaches finally drop them behind Cincinnati?
10 Pittsburgh (7-1) .629 16.859 15.714 After the bye, back to work for Pitt against Syracuse. Then comes three straight against teams ranked in my top 25. If the Big East is better than you think, might Pitt be a good choice for a BCS bowl?
11 Ohio State (7-2) .588 12.914 10.743 USC lost, V-Tech lost, and despite Oklahoma beating a team over .500, Ohio State benefited more from a complete shut-out of New Mexico State. And unlike the team they play this week, they control their own Rose Bowl destiny.
12 Virginia Tech (5-3)
ACC Leader		 .389 11.875 9.860 V-Tech has fallen off the map by losing games they should have won – especially the North Carolina loss, which all but eliminated them from the Coastal. But both conference losses were close and the G-Tech one was on the road.
13 Oklahoma (5-3) .445 11,479 9.665 K-State is actually decent by Big 12 North standards at 5-4, and their A Rating isn’t really bad at .301, but the schedule didn’t hold up, and really, winning by only 12 at home? And now they travel to the possible cream of the North crop…
14 LSU (7-1) .610 10.418 9.121 BCS haters should root for LSU against Alabama – a one-loss team making the title game ahead of an unbeaten BCS team could be the straw that breaks the BCS, especially a one-loss team that beat weak MSU and Georgia by one score.
15 Georgia Tech (8-1) .572 7.351 5.788 G-Tech haven’t proved they deserve a Top 10 ranking yet – the close games and loss were against good teams but there are too many of them and the nonconference is nonexistent. 4-5 Wake probably won’t help.
16 Clemson (5-3) .417 6.784 5.277 What will it take for Clemson to be ranked in the polls and be recognized for beating Miami and their only questionable loss coming on the road to Maryland by three? They’re close now; will beating Florida State be enough?
17 Texas Tech (6-3) .448 6.255 4.963 After beating up on once-mighty Kansas, the Red Raiders are now in a similar position as Clemson: just on the outskirts of the polls. But the Oklahoma schools are next, and both will be tough, especially with OSU on the road.
18 Nebraska (5-3) .421 5.031 3.861 Got back on track by beating Baylor, and Texas A&M, the team that bedeviled Texas Tech, gave them a gift: they beat Iowa State and the Huskers once again control their own destiny in the Big 12 North.
19 USC (6-2) .486 5.263 3.760 USC’s nearly decade-long streak of Pac-10 titles will come to an end. Oregon would have to lose three of their last four, and one more stumble would put the Trojans behind Arizona, Stanford, Cal, AND Oregon State.
20 Notre Dame (6-2) .457 2.432 2.432 Notre Dame can smell a BCS bowl, but don’t celebrate too early. Two Big East opponents ahead will give them a test, including on the road against underrated Pitt. And losing to USC at home now looks disappointing.
21 Utah (7-1) .582 4.659 2.429 The win over Wyoming wasn’t really by that much more than the win over Air Force, which is why Notre Dame leapfrogs them. Their warmup for TCU will be horrible New Mexico at home. The Utes will win, but by how much?
22 Arizona (5-2) .433 2.936 1.627 Hold pat because the bye is offset by other teams losing. Now they get the Pac-10’s worst team at home. The Wildcats’ litmus test games still lurk ahead on the schedule.
23 Tennessee (4-4)* .293 1.328 .941 Tennessee gave the rest of the SEC the blueprint to beat Florida, came within a blown call of beating Alabama, and just won the winner-moves-in contest against South Carolina fairly handily. But 4-4 is still 4-4 with the UCLA loss.
24 West Virginia (6-2) .467 .986 .899 South Florida’s only losses are to the Big East’s big two, so why is WVU still ahead of them? USF wasn’t competitive in those losses and the game was in Tampa. Louisville is now a tuneup for the Bulls’ own date with the Big Two.
25 Miami (FL) (6-2) .436 1.703 .705 Their last game was a one-point win over mediocre Wake Forest and they faced bad teams after V-Tech loss, but other teams lost, G-Tech keeps winning, and they just need G-Tech to lose once and the Coastal is theirs.

27 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #26 Oklahoma State (was #16), Mississippi (was #25)

Watch List: #26 Oklahoma State, #27 Connecticut

Other Positive B Ratings: Air Force*, Fresno State, #36 Temple, #37 Houston, #39 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: Mississippi, #33 Oregon State, #47 South Carolina, #52 Central Michigan

Bottom 10: #111 San Jose State, #112 Memphis, #113 Miami (OH), #114 Washington State, #115 New Mexico State, #116 Eastern Michigan, #117 Tulane, #118 New Mexico, #119 Western Kentucky, #120 Rice

Conference Rating: Big East (-.321), SEC (-2.549), Big 12 (-6.668), ACC (-8.281), Big 10 (-10.772), Pac-10 (-12.770), Mountain West (-25.080), WAC (-29.315), MAC (-36.678, leader #36 Temple), C-USA (-41.840, leader #37 Houston), Sun Belt (-41.850, leader #44 Troy)

Best game of week: Ohio State @ Penn State, 12:30pm PT, ABC/ESPN2

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Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 8

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 4-3. Could still keep its spot if the competitors aren’t overwhelmingly appealing.
  • Protected games according to this: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Redskins-Cowboys (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Giants-Falcons is no longer the main contender for a flex at 5-3 v. 4-3. Colts-Ravens is 7-0 v. 4-3, and benefits from the Ravens playing better than their record. 49ers-Packers is probably out at 3-4 v. 4-3; at best, they can have matching records to the tentative, at which point the NFL’s bias to keeping the tentative kicks in. The Chargers won and Broncos lost to make Chargers-Broncos suddenly interesting.
  • Analysis: In my opinion, Colts-Ravens is the only game that could steal the spot; Giants-Falcons probably needs Philadelphia to lose, the Giants to win, and probably a Bears loss and Falcons win to have a chance of overcoming the tentative-game bias. But Colts-Ravens, lopsided though it may seem, still involves a team with the same record as the Bears playing an undefeated squad, and benefits in several ways from Baltimore’s upset of Denver. First, of course, the Ravens got above .500. Second, the Ravens knocked off one undefeated team; can they knock off another? Third, Colts-Broncos Week 14 is no longer a potential battle of undefeateds. Still, the Colts have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, meaning if Colts-Falcons is picked that’s it for the Colts the rest of the way – no Colts-Texans Week 12, no Jets-Colts Week 16, and still most damningly, no Broncos-Colts Week 14. And then there’s the fact that this would flex from an NFC road game to an AFC road game…
  • Final prediction: Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears (no change).

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 4-3, the Steelers are defending champs, and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games. Colts-Texans is the only game involving two teams over .500 – but it’s getting better as the Texans win. Jaguars-49ers is probably out.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Miami
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-4. This game is becoming lopsided.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons and Vikings-Cardinals each pit a 3-loss team against a team with the same or better record as the Patriots. Eagles-Falcons is less lopsided but Vikings-Cardinals is better overall and has the Favre factor.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and the NFC East is tight enough that the top three teams, including these two, are within a half-game of each other. Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot – the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to potentially having the division lead on the line if the game was played today.
  • Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons remain strong contenders. Broncos-Colts is still the only compelling candidate to flex away from Eagles-Giants (even if the Broncos are no longer unbeaten), given the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex – though with the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings looks mighty compelling, and Saints-Falcons might be the Saints’ best chance for a loss all year.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
  • Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 7-1 and the Panthers 3-4. There are better chances to worship at the Favre altar the previous two weeks, against teams that are actually winning, not to mention the Giants Week 17 if that game has playoff implications.
  • Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Falcons-Jets is in trouble, but 49ers-Eagles is suffering as the Niners have a losing record. Bears-Ravens might be the new favorite as the only available game with two teams with winning records. Those are mediocre enough games that Vikings-Panthers might keep its spot yet.

Week 16 (December 27)

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
  • Prospects: Lopsided at 5-2 v. 2-5, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
  • Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles and Jets-Colts. Right now the main attraction of those games is the now-beaten Broncos playing a team with the same record as the Cowboys, and the unbeaten Colts playing a Jets team that is stumbling, so there’s nothing terribly compelling if the Colts lose but the games remain lopsided – though if the Eagles win Sunday Night Broncos-Eagles will be difficult to argue against next week.

Week 17 (January 3):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

Not that they care about this, but…

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This is what NBC had in mind when they picked up the new Sunday Night Football contract. NBC hasn’t always gotten the biggest games, and they typically only get them when their importance comes before the schedule is announced, like the opener at Cowboys Stadium.

But not only is Cowboys-Eagles now the game of the week as a battle for the division lead in the superstar NFC East and possibly the chance to call yourself the third-best team in the NFC as superstar quarterbacks Tony Romo and Donovan McNabb square off…

…the NFL Lineal Title will be on the line as well.

Hmm. Speaking of Sunday Night, I should be doing the Flex Schedule Watch soon…

College Football Schedule – Week 10

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I set a hard deadline of today for the schedule because of the large quantity of games today. Once again, this will make the rankings obvious. I have no idea why I went back to the incredible irritatingness of WordPress table handling, except I couldn’t think of anything else. All times Eastern.

TOP 25 GAMES
Central Florida @ Texas Noon FSN Bill Land, Gary Reasons, Emily Jones
Vanderbilt @ Florida* 7 PM ESPN2 Mark Jones, Bob Davie
Connecticut @ Cincinnati 8 PM ABC Brent Musburger, Kirk Herbstreit, Lisa Salters
TCU @ San Diego State 4 PM VS. Tim Neverett, Glenn Parker, Lindsay Soto
#14 LSU @ Alabama 3:30 CBS Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson, Tracy Wolfson
Oregon* @ Stanford 3:30 FSN Barry Tompkins, Petros Papadakis, Rebecca Haarlow
Boise State @ Louisiana Tech 8 PM FR ESPN2 Dave Lamont, Rod Gilmore
Ohio State @ Penn State 3:30 ABC/ESPN2
HD ABC only		 Sean McDonough, Matt Millen, Holly Rowe
Northwestern @ Iowa Noon ESPN Dave Pasch, Bob Griese, Chris Spielman
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh Noon ESPNU Clay Matvick, David Diaz-Infante
#12 Virginia Tech @ East Carolina 7:30 TH ESPN Rece Davis, Mark May, Lou Holtz, Todd Harris
Oklahoma @ #18 Nebraska 8 PM ABC Ron Franklin, Ed Cunningham
Wake Forest @ #15 Georgia Tech 3:30 ABC/ESPN2 Pam Ward, Ray Bentley
Florida State @ #16 Clemson 7:30 ESPN Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, Erin Andrews
#19 USC @ Arizona State 8 PM ABC Mike Patrick, Craig James, Heather Cox
Navy @ #20 Notre Dame 2:30 NBC Tom Hammond, Pat Haden, Alex Flanagan
New Mexico @ #21 Utah 6 PM mtn. Dan Gutowsky, Blaine Fowler, Sammy Linebaugh
Washington State @ #22 Arizona 3:30 FCS Dave Sitton, John Fina, Glenn Howell
Memphis @ #23 Tennessee 7 PM ESPNU Eric Collins, Brock Huard
Louisville @ West Virginia Noon B.E. Net Mike Gleason, John Congemi, Quint Kessenich
Virginia @ #25 Miami (FL) Noon Raycom Steve Martin, Rick Walker, Mike Hogewood
WATCHLIST AND OTHER POSITIVE B POINT TEAMS
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State 3:30 ABC Bob Wischusen, Brian Griese
Army @ Air Force 3:30 CBS CS Dave Ryan, Jason Sehorn
Fresno State @ Idaho 7 PT ESPNU Charlie Neal, JC Pearson
Miami (OH) @ Temple 7:30 TH CSD.com
Houston @ Tulsa 7:30 CBS CS Tom Hart, Aaron Taylor
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois 7:30 TH ESPNU Charlie Neal, Jay Walker
THIS WEEK’S OTHER HD GAMES
Bowling Green 30-29 Buffalo 7 PM TU ESPN2
Wisconsin @ Indiana Noon BTN Craig Coshun, Glen Mason, Mike Hall
Illinois @ Minnesota Noon BTN Matt Rosen, Ron Johnson, Ron Johnson
Western Michigan @ Michigan State Noon BTN Ari Wolfe, Rod Woodson, Kenny Jackson
Purdue @ Michigan Noon BTN Wayne Larrivee, Chris Martin, Charissa Thompson
South Carolina @ Arkansas Noon SEC Net Dave Neal, Andre Ware, Cara Capuano
Kansas @ Kansas State 12:30 VS. Ron Thulin, Kelly Stouffer, Lewis Johnson
Duke @ North Carolina 3:30 ESPNU Todd Harris, Charles Arbuckle
Oregon State @ California 7 PM FSN Steve Physioc, Mike Pawlawski, Drea Avent
Northern Arizona @ Mississippi 7:30 CSS/CN/CST Bob Rathun, Dave Archer, Jenn Hildreth
Utah State @ Hawaii 7 PT PPV Jim Leahey, Russell Yamaoha
Nevada @ San Jose State 8:30 SU ESPN Terry Gannon, David Norrie
SEC
Tennessee Tech @ Georgia 1 PM Gameplan Matt Stewart, Buck Belue, Sandra Golden
Eastern Kentucky @ Kentucky 1 PM WKYT Rob Bromley, Tim Couch, Dick Gabriel
Furman @ Auburn 1:30 Gameplan Andy Burcham, Cole Cubelic, Melissa Lee
BIG 12
Texas A&M @ Colorado 1:30 FCS Dan McLaughlin, Yogi Roth, Samantha Steele
Baylor @ Missouri 2 PM
ACC
Maryland @ NC State 1 PM ESPN360 Ryan Rose, Danny Kanell
PAC-10
Washington @ UCLA 3:30 FSN Bill MacDonald, James Washington,
Brooke Olzendam, Courtney Jones
MOUNTAIN WEST
BYU @ Wyoming 2 PM mtn. James Bates, Todd Christensen, Andrea Lloyd
Colorado State @ UNLV 7 PT mtn. Bill Doleman, Robert Griffith, Molly Sullivan
MAC
Kent State @ Akron 3:30 FS Ohio
CONFERENCE USA
Rice @ SMU 3 PM CBSCS XXL Brad Sham, Allen Stone
UTEP @ Tulane 3:30 CBSCS XXL Sam Smith, Roger Schultz
SUN BELT
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Arkansas State 3:30 CSS/CST Todd Kalas, Derek Rackley
Louisiana-Monroe @ North Texas 4 PM CSD.com
Florida International @ Middle Tenn. St. 4:30 Gameplan
Troy @ Western Kentucky 5 PM
BOWL SUBDIVISION
Florida Atlantic @ UAB 2 PM CBSCS XXL

Why “Lists” are my Favorite New Twitter Feature

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My first reaction upon learning of Twitter’s new “Lists” feature was “What the hell would the point of that be?” It seemed like a needless gimmick that didn’t really necessarily add anything to the Twitter experience.

When I entered the list-access group, and started to explore what lists were really like, I realized that not only were lists substantially more useful than I had supposed, Twitter had seemingly read my mind. If you’ve ever had or at least considered or heard of a stereotype of men as sorters and categorizers obsessed with organization, you’re talking about me. (Not that it helps me with physical things, like my bedroom, mind.) The Lists feature seemingly anticipated projects I had been considering involving creating a one-place resource for tweeters or even web sites in specific categories.

Now, to attempt to find all the tweeters in a given category would involve an insane amount of work, and I can’t create more than 20 lists anyway to cover all the categories I’d like to cover. Nonetheless, I’ve spent the past week (meaning “more time than I should have over the past week”) tracking down as many tweeters in the categories I was most interested in as I could. But I still need your help, so tweet me if you have a like-minded list. (One particular idea I’m interested in is at the end of this post.) Also tweet me if you know of any tweeters in any category I’ve left out – if I was the one who created the list. (Thanks to Listorious for many of the lists that aren’t mine.)

I’m also looking for Twitter lists for news for particular metropolitan areas – as I’ve said in the past, I’m fascinated by the centrality of cities in America. I can’t possibly handle all such lists myself, so I need you to create lists for your hometown containing ONLY:

  • All major TV news operations’ tweeters (for Seattle, that would be @komonews, @KING5Seattle, @NWCN, @KIRO7Seattle, and @Q13FOX)
  • All local newspapers’ tweeters (at least @seattletimes, for example)
  • News radio stations (@973kiro and @komonewsradio

In addition, I’d like city-by-city sports tweeters containing ONLY:

  • Every team’s OFFICIAL Twitter account
  • Every sports news tweeter that’s a spinoff of the news tweeters above
  • Every regional sports network
  • Every sports radio station

2009 College Football Rankings – Week 8

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This was a wild week for the C Ratings – and this was a week in which in many ways, the C Ratings were justified! Every so often I find myself wondering if the computer on which the calculations are done affect the resulting rankings. Just look at the turnover on the rankings this week – what are TCU and Boise State doing as the next-best teams behind the Big Four, in the year of one of the largest gaps between the BCS and non-BCS conferences I’ve ever seen? What are Pitt and Penn State doing in the Top 10? Did Oklahoma State really just zoom into the Top 20 after weeks of waiting on the outside of the Top 25 looking in? Tennessee at despite being in negative B Points? Blame some of the surprising results we had in college football this week – especially Alabama needing a last-second blocked field goal to beat Tennessee, causing a flip-flop with Texas to put the Longhorns back into the top spot of the C Ratings. This week’s C Ratings do not include games already played.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking the difference between the team’s B Rating and his conference’s rating, taking a fraction of that equal to the fraction of Division I-A the conference makes up, and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Texas (7-0)
Big 12 Leader		 .803 35.247 31.282 The Longhorns followed a worrying effort against Oklahoma with an impressive one against Missou to retake the top spot – but people are still too enamored of the SEC. But Oklahoma State could very easily be a trap game.
2 Florida (7-0)
SEC Leader
Princeton-Yale Title		 .810 33.170 29.735 Florida may have missed an opportunity to return to by letting a weak Mississippi State team get too far into the game. Will the refs have to save them again at the World’s Largest Cocktail Party?
3 Cincinnati (7-0)
Big East Leader		 .798 28.076 26.174 Cincinnati’s own coach told ESPN’s “College Football Live” Wednesday he voted his own team fifth. Did no one notice the Big East had a nonconference on par with any other BCS conference? More on this next week.
4 Alabama (8-0) .801 26.665 23.881 So much for the darling of the blogosphere – Alabama should be worried that they’re fourth despite playing one more game. They better fix the problems with the Tennessee game, because LSU comes to town after the bye.
5 TCU (7-0)
Non-BCS Leader		 .779 25.582 21.911 BYU’s poll ranking is mostly driven by their success in seasons past, but 38-7 is 38-7, especially against their best A Rating faced so far. Could this be the BCS buster that finally makes the title game?
6 Boise State (7-0) .802 22.322 18.742 Assuming both stay unbeaten and neither make the title game, with the proven appeal of the underdog, I’d like to see the Sugar or Fiesta Bowl select a non-BCS team with their first pick and book a 2008 Poinsettia Bowl rematch.
7 Iowa (8-0)
Big Ten Leader		 .668 20.409 17.742 If the Hawkeyes want to be in national championship consideration, especially with the stigma the Big Ten has picked up, they’ve got to stop escaping close games against teams they should beat handily.
8 Pittsburgh (7-1) .629 16.310 15.192 Want to know how good the Big East really is? Pitt just demolished a South Florida team that was unbeaten two weeks ago. Their rating is almost entirely driven big Big East opponents. How big might the Cincinnati game be?
9 Penn State (7-1) .709 16.797 14.461 Big win over a Michigan team that’s not the team that lost to Appalachian State. They need Iowa to lose twice, though, and three of the Hawkeyes’ remaining four are at home to mediocre teams.
10 Oregon (6-1)
Pac-10 Leader
2006 Boise State Title		 .591 15.233 13.086 People are talking up USC as perhaps a better national title contender than Cincinnati or Iowa. If the Ducks can knock the Trojans off in Autzen, with a better loss, will people say the same things about them?
11 Virginia Tech (5-2)
ACC Leader		 .465 15.315 12.947 V-Tech slips for the bye, but they’ll slip again next week because they just lost a close one to North Carolina. Will people interpret this as “the ACC is better and has more parity than we thought”, or “V-Tech was never that good anyway”?
12 Oklahoma (4-3) .412 11.932 10.299 Oh ye of little faith, who dropped Oklahoma out of the polls entirely after losing Sam Bradford for the season. They showed a good Kansas team that for all the crap teams they’d beaten, they still kept it close in every loss.
13 USC (6-1) .609 12.138 10.248 USC slips a couple of spots despite handling a pretty good Oregon State team relatively easily because Washington lost again – badly – and so did Washington State, even if to another USC opponent in Cal. Need to beat Oregon to prove their poll ranking.
14 Ohio State (6-2) .545 9.707 8.021 Get back on track by beating Minnesota, and will now have a tune-up against New Mexico State before a couple of litmus test games against Penn State and Iowa. They still control their own Rose Bowl destiny.
15 LSU (6-1) .560 9.027 8.007 Handled Auburn properly. Now Tulane is going to be a tuneup for the Alabama game, at which point LSU will either shock the college football world and sneak into the SEC Title Game, or prepare for the Capitol One Bowl as an afterthought.
16 Oklahoma State (6-1) .617 5.409 4.428 With no wins against teams in positive B Points and a 5-point squeaker over Texas A&M, OSU hadn’t done enough to justify their poll ranking – until allowing a season low against an FBS school v. Baylor. But Bryant’s gone, and Texas ain’t Baylor.
17 Clemson (4-3) .357 5.531 4.141 The moral, as always: the C Ratings know best. Clemson’s still not ranked in the polls, though they have votes across the board, and even here they’ll slip after playing I-AA Coastal Carolina, but they’re in pole position in the Atlantic.
18 West Virginia (6-1) .571 4.288 3.972 The Mountaineers foiled what could have been a good story about the Huskies overcoming adversity to win, but still, they entered this week one of three teams unbeaten in conference. But the meat of the schedule is still to come.
19 Georgia Tech (7-1) .554 5.240 3.879 The pollsters are still overrating G-Tech on the outskirts of the Top 10. Handling Virginia is good, but Vanderbilt will hardly be a test. Still, they, not V-Tech, control their own destiny in the Coastal.
20 Nebraska (4-3) .379 4.326 3.454 What happened? One minute the Huskers are blowing out Missouri and challenging Kansas for the Big 12 North, the next they’re losing to Texas Tech and freaking Iowa State, and no longer control their own destiny. At least KU is losing too.
21 Texas Tech (5-3) .414 3.237 2.474 The only people who saw Texas A&M upend Texas Tech were in the stadium. The Red Raiders finally faltered at home, and now don’t look so hot. Fortunately, the Jayhawks come into town reeling too.
22 Arizona (5-2) .433 3.654 2.472 Lost in all the talk about the big Oregon-USC showdown this weekend is that the Wildcats, now ranked in the polls heading into the bye, still control their own destiny – and get Oregon at home. Sure, they have to play in the Coliseum, but still.
23 Utah (6-1) .557 4.021 1.967 Hold steady because they beat a good Air Force team, but not by a lot. That doesn’t inspire the confidence the polls have in them. Need to blow out Wyoming to stay on this Top 25.
24 Notre Dame (5-2) .413 1.836 1.836 Back on the Top 25 after beating Boston College, but they’ve gotta stop being the Cardiac Irish. Having a performance that sluggish against lowly Washington State will send you right back off again.
25 Mississippi (5-2) .469 2.137 1.806 They were just outside the Top 25 last week and did what they needed to do this week against a good Arkansas team – but only move up one spot. Now they travel to play a reeling Auburn team.

28 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #26 Connecticut (was #22), Kansas (was #18), #37 Virginia (was #21)

Watch List: #26 Connecticut, #27 Miami (FL), South Carolina

Other Positive B Ratings: #30 Fresno State, Oregon State, #34 Central Michigan*, #40 Northern Illinois, #41 Houston*, #43 Temple* (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: Tennessee, Kansas, #37 Virginia, #38 Florida State, #42 Michigan, #46 South Florida, #47 Arkansas, #53 Arizona State

Bottom 10: #111 UAB, #112 Illinois, #113 Eastern Michigan, #114 New Mexico State, #115 Washington State, #116 Miami (OH), #117 Tulane, #118 New Mexico, #119 Western Kentucky, #120 Rice

Conference Rating: Big East (-.460), SEC (-1.175), Big 12 (-4.399), ACC (-8.368), Big 10 (-8.684), Pac-10 (-10.537), Mountain West (-23.363), WAC (-25.415), MAC (-31.941), Conference USA (-37.528), Sun Belt (-39.691)

Best game of week: Texas @ Oklahoma State, 5pm PT, ABC or ESPN2

All logos taken from Sportslogos.net, and are the trademarks of their respective schools, used without permission under fair-use clause of United States copyright law. Some logos may be out of date. Use of logos for commercial purposes without consent of the respective schools is prohibited.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 7

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 3-3. Could still keep its spot if the competitors aren’t overwhelmingly appealing, but Da Bears have to stop the slide.
  • Protected games according to this: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Redskins-Cowboys (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Giants-Falcons is the main contender for a flex, though the Giants are in trouble, with Colts-Ravens fading and 49ers-Packers looking to be as good a game as the tentative. Look out for Chargers-Broncos as a dark horse if the Chargers keep winning and the Broncos pick up a loss or two.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-3, the Steelers are defending champs, and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games. Colts-Texans involves two teams over .500, but it’s lopsided. Jaguars-49ers is a battle of 3-3 teams – it’s not beating Steelers-Ravens.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Miami
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 2-4. This game is becoming lopsided.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons is a battle of 4-2 teams. Vikings-Cardinals might be better, at 6-1 v. 4-2 and the Favre factor, which could tip the balance in its favor for a flex. Keep an eye on Jaguars-Texans.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and it’s 5-2 v. 4-2, currently the top two spots in said division (even if the Eagles are still tied for ). Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot – the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to potentially having the division lead on the line if the game was played today.
  • Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons remain strong contenders. Broncos-Colts is still the only compelling candidate to flex away from Eagles-Giants (without a loss between them), given the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex – though with the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings looks mighty compelling, and Saints-Falcons might be the Saints’ best chance for a loss all year.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
  • Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 6-1 and the Panthers 2-4. There are better chances to worship at the Favre altar the previous two weeks, against teams that are actually winning, not to mention the Giants Week 17 if that game has playoff implications.
  • Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Falcons-Jets is the best, at 4-2 @ 4-3, followed by 49ers-Eagles and Bears-Ravens. Those are mediocre enough games that Vikings-Panthers might keep its spot yet.

Week 16 (December 27)

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
  • Prospects: Lopsided at 4-2 v. 2-5, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
  • Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles and Jets-Colts, with Jaguars-Patriots a dark horse. Right now the main attraction of those games is the unbeaten Broncos and Colts playing teams with similar records to the Cowboys, so there’s nothing terribly compelling if both unbeatens lose but the games remain lopsided.

Week 17 (January 3):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.